导弹非金属薄弱环节贮存寿命快速评估

目的科学评估某型导弹4类80种非金属薄弱环节的贮存寿命。方法建立由分析、试验、评估、验证等4个层次工作组成的贮存寿命快速评估流程。以实验室加速老化试验、自然环境试验、对比试验、经验数据分析为手段,按照基于实验室加速老化试验结果定量评估、基于已有加速老化试验数据定量评估、基于对比加速老化试验结果半定量评估、基于近似产品经验数据定性评估等4种方法开展了试验评估工作。结果以天然橡胶1161、JZ101-67高阻尼减振器、天然橡胶1157、特221润滑脂等4种非金属薄弱环节为4种方法应用示例,得出了4种非金属薄弱环节贮存寿命都大于23年的评估结果。结论 4种非金属薄弱环节多能满足延寿工程的要求。     

化学品风险评估在职业健康安全监管中的运用

介绍了目前国际上主流的化学品定性和定量风险评估方法,分析了目前国内化学品职业安全健康风险评价主要存在的问题。从利用定性风险评估快速确认作业场所风险控制措施、利用定量风险评估精确评估作业场所风险、利用定量风险评估筛选安全监管重点3个方面,分析了化学品风险评估在职业健康安全监管中的运用可能,并举例说明。建议在缺乏职业接触限值无法开展职业健康评价时优先利用化学品定性风险评估进行风险评估,利用定量风险评估确定重点监管对象。     

小子样成败型产品可靠性评估方法研究

介绍了一种小子样成败型产品可靠性评估方法。基于"计量评估"理论原则,针对可用于评价产品的特征量的试验数据,依次运用了数据样本子样的概率分布拟合检验方法、样本数据的一致性检验和离群值识别等统计学方法,最终使用经检验的特征量试验数据完成产品的可靠性评估。使用实例数据,应用评估方法,完成了一类典型产品的可靠性评估,其中特别指出的是,在实际应用过程中,应该尤其关注离群值的识别和剔除。实例证明,此方法可用于特征量明确的小子样成败型产品的可靠性评估。     

最小2乘法在环境管理中的应用

一、概述最小2乘法是一种常用的预测方法,它已广泛用于各个不同的科学领域。环保工作中,环境管理工作目标,就是要时刻掌握本地环境污染状况。对未来的环境污染指标、环境治理投资的判断,如何防治和控制环境污染等,都必须要进行环境预测。预测可分为定性预测和定量预测。定性预测是根     

环境规划实施评估指标体系研究

环境规划指标体系是环境规划的核心内容,具有重要意义.环境规划能否切实发挥重要功能,与其规划实施评估有着密不可分的关系.环境规划评估指标体系的建立有利于系统有效地分析和评估环境规划实施效果和问题.通过分析定性评估、定量评估、层次分析法、逻辑框架法等评估方法,并实证分析环境规划评估指标体系的建立,对比分析发现,逻辑框架法可有效地分析环境规划实施过程中存在的问题,从而从总体上构建评估指标体系,可为环境规划的实施评估提供有效的参考.     

建设项目环境影响评价的清洁生产分析

根据目前建设项目环境影响评价中的清洁生产分析存在的实际问题,提出了一种比较完善的清洁生产分析方法。即原材料指标，产品指标，资源指标和污染物产生指标定性，定量分级综合评价法，并用3种生活垃圾处理方法为对象进行了实例验证。对在环境影响评价中开展清洁生产分析工作提出了进一步的建议。     

船用板式换热器可靠寿命预计方法研究

目的对于新型船用板式换热器进行可靠寿命预计,考虑到相似产品使用期间会获得定量的信息,提出一种利用相似产品信息进行产品可靠性预计的方法。方法相似产品的相似度由专家根据经验分析给出,其后根据继承因子直接对相似产品的可靠度进行折合。对板式换热器与相似产品的性能数据进行对比分析,利用模糊数学中贴近度的概念,计算得到两产品之间的折算系数。结果结合相似产品的实际使用数据,通过对流速、换热系数和其他相似因素的比较,得到产品对于相似产品的折算系数为0.286,从而进一步确定该板式换热器折算后的试验时间,利用无故障定时截尾寿命评估方法对该产品的可靠性进行粗略估计。结论该方法对利用相似产品进行寿命评估提供了一种新思路,从产品的性能特征出发,在一定程度上优化了专家评估相似度的主观因素。     

湖北省环境保护“十一五”规划中期评估

采用定量评估和定性评估相结合的方式,对湖北省环境保护“十一五”规划中期实施情况进行评估。分析其实施过程中存在的主要问题,提出改进和加强的建议。     

基于物元可拓模型的地下水质量评价研究

物元可拓方法是从定性和定量两个角度去处理现实世界中矛盾问题的一种新方法.文章在基于可拓工程方法的基础上,利用物元模型理论,建立了地下水质量评价模型,通过计算综合关联度确定地下水质量等级.由于物元分析中的关联度引入了负数,保证了信息的完整性,能较完整地反映事物的综合质量水平,因此,评价结果更为客观、准确.应用结果表明该方法是合理可行的.     

跌落/撞击载荷下装药结构的安全性评估方法

目的 提出装药结构在跌落/撞击事故条件下安全性的定量评估方法.方法 针对装药结构跌落/撞击条件下含能部件非冲击点火存在的不确定性大、缺乏可供工程应用的点火判据等问题,采用基于数理统计思想的定量评估思路,建立"3类试验+1种方法"的安全性评估体系,并提出试验设计、方法选取和评估实施的方法及要求,可供工程应用.结果 采用该方法,开展了某装药结构跌落安全性的定量评估,通过标准试验探索获得了特定约束下的起爆阈值范围,通过设计并开展多发能包络整体级响应的构型试验,获得的实验数据可作为评估的样本数据.采用单侧置信下限方法进行了定量评估,获得了安全度为0.99999(置信度0.9)的定量评估结果.结论 该方法可实现对武器装备、航天发动机跌落/撞击条件下安全性的定量评估,但该方法仅适用于装药结构具有足够安全裕度的情况.     

Uncertainty analysis in life cycle inventory. Application to the production of electricity with French coal power plants

Uncertainty assessment in LCAs is an important aspect for decision-makers to judge the significance of differences in product or process options.Stochastic models (e.g., Monte Carlo) are tools used in Life Cycle Inventory (LCI) to compute the uncertainty of cumulative emissions and resource requirements. However, one main problem when applying such models is the large number of unit processes that make up a product system. In this paper a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches in uncertainty assessment is proposed for an efficient assessment of uncertainty. The qualitative assessment of data quality relies on data quality indicators, whereas the quantitative assessment uses Monte Carlo simulation.The effort to select accurate probability functions concentrates on data with a significant contribution to the cumulative results¹ and/or with a high uncertainty. The probability function of selected data is estimated using different techniques, depending on the amount of information available.Some results are presented by applying the method on selected French coal-based electricity.     

Qualitative and quantitative tool development to support environmentally responsible decisions

The Centre for Design at RMIT University in Melbourne, Australia has developed various quantitative and qualitative tools to support decision-making by industry and government partners in product design and policy development. The aim, in general, is to support development of attractive, functional, marketable products while enhancing their environmental performance. Depending on the product, the project scope and the client, the tools that are used can be anything from a half-day char-rette, environmental checklist, to a one-year life cycle assessment (LCA).In this paper we describe our approach and the various tools that have been developed by the research team at the Centre over recent years with the use of case studies. The paper argues that it is important for tool development to be based on solid research and information, but the key to influencing product design decisions is the translation of this information into a usable format for the users.     

城市生态支持系统的指标体系设计及实例分析

指出了城市生态支持系统对城市这一复合的人工生态系统可持续发展的重要性。运用层次分析法构建城市生态支持系统的指标体系，采用德尔菲法则确定其权重。以上海为例，设计了评价步骤与方法，对上海城市生态支持系统水平进行了定性、定量的研究分析，并总结了评价结果，进行了优劣分析。     

The feasibility of including sustainability in LCA for product development

The feasibility of combining the concept of sustainability principles and the methodology of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is examined. The goal is to achieve an operational tool that incorporates sustainability in product development and strategic planning. While the method outlined has the structure of LCA, it emphasises aspects and parameters often omitted from traditional LCA. The analysis and results can be either qualitative or semi-quantitative. Although a qualitative analysis is less time consuming, it can still highlight the important issues. Qualitative information, which is easily lost in a quantitative analysis, can be emphasised. One of the conclusions is that the method is well suited for screening analysis.     

河流水环境质量评价研究——对评价系统、评价方法的新探讨

本文旨在对河流水环境资源中水质、水量二要素的评价以及对定量、定性数据的综合评价进行方法论上的探讨。文中提出了模糊数学评价的改进方法,建立了一套水量评价标准和评价方法;建立了“优势度”概念并提出了水质、水量多目标定量、定性数据综合评价方法。以四川省沱江为例,对上述方法进行验证,根据评价结果划分河段,并对各河段的水资源合理利用及水环境规划提出建议。     

再制造产品评价指标体系与评价方法研究

再制造产业是我国节能环保战略新兴产业的重要组成部分,对于破解经济发展的资源和环境约束具有重要意义。本文系统调研和分析了国内外再制造标准的制定、修订现状,提出了再制造产品评价的现实需求;创新性地提出了再制造产品的评价指标体系,包括定性评价指标和定量评价指标;针对我国再制造产业的发展现状和阶段,提出了具有较强适用性的评价方法。本研究将为制定相关国家标准和产业政策提供技术依据和决策参考。     

危险废物处理处置技术评价方法研究

在对不同危险废物处理处置技术评价方法适用性进行分析的基础上,对危险废物处理处置技术评价方法进行了系统研究.结果发现专家评价法和环境技术评价(EnTA)法以定性评价为主,简单易行,应用范围广泛;生命周期评价(LCA)法以定量为主,但由于数据采集困难,目前在应用上还面临很多困难;层次分析(AHP)法把定性与定量评价融合得比较好,对于解决危险废物处理处置技术的选择问题行之有效.     

An environmental assessment method for cleaner production technologies

An environmental assessment method for cleaner production technologies enabling quantitative analysis of environmental impact is presented.The proposed method is based on material and energy flows and uses a set of profile indices, including raw material, energy, waste, product and packaging profiles that describe all material and energy flows related to the technology under investigation. The indices are used as a basis for determining an integrated index for overall environmental assessment of cleaner production technologies.The presented method can be employed to evaluate environmental nuisance of implemented, modernised and modified technological processes and products as well to perform comparative analyses of alternative technologies.     

ReSICLED: a new recovery-conscious design method for complex products based on a multicriteria assessment of the recoverability

Significant improvements in end-of-life complex product recovery can be accomplished when recovery aspects are better integrated at the design stage of products. This paper introduces a new method that should allow design teams to produce better recovery-conscious designs, i.e. to integrate the complexity and the variability of recovery routes and to make recoverability more tangible to designers. The main methodological aspects of the new method are presented based on an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of existing methods. In particular, the original multiprocess modelling of recovery scenarios and the original quantitative, multicriteria and multiscenario assessment of the recoverability of a product are detailed. On the basis of the assessment results, a design team is able to suggest design improvements. The implementation of the new method is simulated in real industrial practice. It is shown how the use of the method can bring significant gains in the product's recoverability. Assets and drawbacks of the method are discussed.