The effects of plant distribution and frugivore density on the scale and shape of dispersal kernels

For many plant species, seed dispersal is one of the most important spatial demographic processes. We used a diffusion approximation and a spatially explicit simulation model to explore the mechanisms generating seed dispersal kernels for plants dispersed by frugivores. The simulation model combined simple movement and foraging rules with seed gut passage time, plant distribution, and fruit production. A simulation experiment using plant spatial aggregation and frugivore density as factors showed that seed dispersal scale was largely determined by the degree of plant aggregation, whereas kernel shape was mostly dominated by frugivore density. Kernel shapes ranged from fat tailed to thin tailed, but most shapes were between an exponential and that of the solution of a diffusion equation. The proportion of dispersal kernels with fat tails was highest for landscapes with clumped plant distributions and increased with increasing number of dispersers. The diffusion model provides a basis for models including more behavioral details but can also be used to approximate dispersal kernels once a diffusion rate is estimated from animal movement data. Our results suggest that important characteristics of dispersal kernels will depend on the spatial pattern of plant distribution and on disperser density when frugivores mediate seed dispersal.     

Metacommunity structure of pond macroinvertebrates: effects of dispersal mode and generation time

A recent challenge in community ecology is to understand under what conditions local and regional processes may be more important in shaping community structure. We investigated the role of dispersal mode and generation time for communities of macroinvertebrates in two sets of connected ponds during three consecutive years. We found no evidence that generation time affected metacommunity structure, possibly because statistical power was limited because the range of generation times present was small. In contrast, we found that the spatial structure of the macroinvertebrate metacommunities differed with dispersal mode in one of two sets of ponds. Passive dispersers showed positive distance-dissimilarity correlations, suggesting mass effects via the pond connections. These correlations did not stretch beyond the first pond downstream suggesting that, in this chain of connected ponds, intervening ponds effectively buffered dispersal. Active dispersers did not show any consistent spatial pattern, possibly because intensive over-land dispersal homogenized the metacommunity. Thus, although pond connections probably equally promoted dispersal of actively and passively dispersing macroinvertebrates, the implications for the structure of their metacommunities may depend on their dispersal mode. We conclude that dispersal mode has the potential to affect the mechanisms that are integral to metacommunity structure.     

Spatial selection and inheritance: applying evolutionary concepts to population dynamics in heterogeneous space

Organisms in highly suitable sites generally produce more offspring, and offspring can inherit this suitability by not dispersing far. This combination of spatial selection and spatial inheritance acts to bias the distribution of organisms toward suitable sites and thereby increase mean fitness (i.e., per capita population increase). Thus, population growth rates in heterogeneous space change over time by a process conceptually analogous to evolution by natural selection, opening avenues for theoretical cross-pollination between evolutionary biology and ecology. We operationally define spatial inheritance and spatial selective differential and then combine these two factors in a modification of the breeder's equation, derived from simple models of population growth in heterogeneous space. The modified breeder's equation yields a conservative criterion for persistence in hostile environments estimable from field measurements. We apply this framework for understanding gypsy moth population persistence amidst abundant predators and find that the predictions of the modified breeder's equation match initial changes in population growth rate in independent simulation output. The analogy between spatial dynamics and natural selection conceptually links ecology and evolution, provides a spatially implicit framework for modeling spatial population dynamics, and represents an important null model for studying habitat selection.     

Do source-sink dynamics promote the spread of an invasive grass into a novel habitat?

Models of source-sink and other spatial patch dynamics have generated a number of ideas and predictions about species range expansion, the evolution of local adaptation, and the factors influencing population persistence, but relatively few empirical studies have applied these ideas due to the difficulty of measuring both patch-specific demography and movement rates. In this study, I used a combination of mark-recapture experiments, model fitting, and demographic approaches to ask how habitat-specific differences in population growth and dispersal affect spread of the invasive grass Aegilops triuncialis into serpentine environments. A. triuncialis germinated at lower rates but exhibited equivalent survival and greater growth in edge (extreme serpentine) than in core populations, even accounting for density differences between habitats. Estimated growth rates (lambda) for four of five edge subpopulations were strongly positive, ranging from lambda = 1.32 to 2.09 without propagule input from adjacent habitat. Local dispersal was best described by an exponential kernel, with a mean dispersal distance about twice as long on the edge (0.24-0.40 m) as in the core (0.18 m). Twenty-five percent of marked spikes in the edge were not relocated within the patch, suggesting greater rates of either seed predation or long-distance dispersal that reduced population growth. These results suggest that A. triuncialis can successfully spread into extreme serpentine habitats without sustained propagule input from adjacent populations. Further, asymmetric dispersal that may be both habitat- and density-dependent could slow growth rates on the edge. This pattern may also increase the importance of harsh edge patches as a source of long-distance dispersers.     

Population-level variation in plant secondary chemistry,and the population biology of herbivores

Summary Modern population ecology is becoming increasingly spatially-explicit. For insect hervibores, spatial variation in plant quality is a critical component of distribution and abundance. We argue that populationlevel measurements of phytochemical variation among individual plants has not kept pace with recent developments in population ecology. With examples from our own work, we demonstrate the importance of spatial variation in plant chemistry for insect herbivores, and suggest that phytochemistry should play a central role in the development of any spatially-based ecological theory.     

Incorporating animal behavior into seed dispersal models: implications for seed shadows

Seed dispersal fundamentally influences plant population and community dynamics but is difficult to quantify directly. Consequently, models are frequently used to describe the seed shadow (the seed deposition pattern of a plant population). For vertebrate-dispersed plants, animal behavior is known to influence seed shadows but is poorly integrated in seed dispersal models. Here, we illustrate a modeling approach that incorporates animal behavior and develop a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model that predicts the seed shadow for a primate-dispersed tree species (Virola calophylla, Myristicaceae) at the forest stand scale. The model was parameterized from field-collected data on fruit production and seed dispersal, behaviors and movement patterns of the key disperser, the spider monkey (Ateles paniscus), densities of dispersed and non-dispersed seeds, and direct estimates of seed dispersal distances. Our model demonstrated that the spatial scale of dispersal for this V. calophylla population was large, as spider monkeys routinely dispersed seeds >100 m, a commonly used threshold for long-distance dispersal. The simulated seed shadow was heterogeneous, with high spatial variance in seed density resulting largely from behaviors and movement patterns of spider monkeys that aggregated seeds (dispersal at their sleeping sites) and that scattered seeds (dispersal during diurnal foraging and resting). The single-distribution dispersal kernels frequently used to model dispersal substantially underestimated this variance and poorly fit the simulated seed-dispersal curve, primarily because of its multimodality, and a mixture distribution always fit the simulated dispersal curve better. Both seed shadow heterogeneity and dispersal curve multimodality arose directly from these different dispersal processes generated by spider monkeys. Compared to models that did not account for disperser behavior, our modeling approach improved prediction of the seed shadow of this V. calophylla population. An important function of seed dispersal models is to use the seed shadows they predict to estimate components of plant demography, particularly seedling population dynamics and distributions. Our model demonstrated that improved seed shadow prediction for animal-dispersed plants can be accomplished by incorporating spatially explicit information on disperser behavior and movements, using scales large enough to capture routine long-distance dispersal, and using dispersal kernels, such as mixture distributions, that account for spatially aggregated dispersal.     

Spatial distribution of defense chemicals and markers and the maintenance of chemical variation

Exploring the spatial distribution of variation in plant secondary metabolites is critical for understanding the evolutionary ecology of biochemical diversity in wild organisms. In the present study, concentrations of foliar sideroxylonal, an important and highly heritable defense chemical of Eucalyptus melliodora, displayed strong, fine-scale spatial autocorrelation. The spatial patterns observed could promote associational effects on herbivore foraging decisions, which may influence the selection pressures exerted on sideroxylonal content. Multiple chemical traits have roles in certain eucalypt-herbivore interactions, and the spatial characteristics of the herbivore foraging environment are therefore determined by these different factors. We used a model of E. melliodora intake by common brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), based on the combined effects of two chemical traits, to explore this idea and found that the spatial patterns were different to those of sideroxylonal alone. Spatial genetic autocorrelation, examined using microsatellites, was strong and occurred at a fine scale, implying that restricted gene flow might allow genetic patches to respond to selection relatively independently. Local two-dimensional genetic autocorrelation, explored using a new heuristic method, was highly congruent with the pattern of local phenotypic variation observed for sideroxylonal, suggesting that the genetic variance underlying the sideroxylonal variation is similarly structured. Our results suggest that the spatial distribution of genetic and phenotypic variation could influence both the selective pressure imposed by herbivores on eucalypt defenses and the potential of populations to respond to natural selection. Spatial context should be considered in future studies of plant-herbivore interactions.     

Sequential sampling designs for catching the tail of dispersal kernels

Methods to design a sampling strategy should depend on the research question involved when conducting the experiment. The objective of this study is to design a seed trap configuration surrounding a parent plant when the long distance component of the seed dispersal kernel is of interest. In particular, as a population’s invasion speed depends mainly on the tail of the dispersal kernel, the sampling design in this study is based on calculating this quantity. The optimality criterion is to minimize the mean squared error (MSE) of the estimated invasion speed (using a limited number of traps) with respect to the “true” calculated invasion speed. Detailed procedures are given on how to calculate an invasion speed, both in a 1D and a 2D setting, with examples on how to implement the method to get a local optimal sampling strategy using Calluna vulgaris as a test system. Results show a trade-off between nearby sampling (many seeds, no long-distance dispersal measured) and distant sampling (few seeds, but long-distance dispersal measured).     

Extinction times in experimental populations

Predicting population extinctions is a key element of quantitative conservation biology and population ecology. Although stochastic population theories have long been used to obtain theoretical distributions of population extinction times, model-based predictions have rarely been tested. Here I report results from a quantitative analysis of extinction time in 281 experimental populations of water fleas (Daphnia magna) in variable environments. To my knowledge, this is the first quantitative estimate of the shape of the distribution of population extinction times based on extinction data for any species. The finding that the distribution of population extinction times was extraordinarily peaked is consistent with theoretical predictions for density-independent populations, but inconsistent with predictions for density-dependent populations. The tail of the extinction time distribution was not exponential. These results imply that our current theories of extinction are inadequate. Future work should focus on how demographic stochasticity scales with population size and effects of nonrandom variable environments on population growth and decline.     

Disentangling the drivers of reduced long-distance seed dispersal by birds in an experimentally fragmented landscape

Seed dispersal is a crucial component of plant population dynamics. Human landscape modifications, such as habitat destruction and fragmentation, can alter the abundance of fruiting plants and animal dispersers, foraging rates, vector movement, and the composition of the disperser community, all of which can singly or in concert affect seed dispersal. Here, we quantify and tease apart the effects of landscape configuration, namely, fragmentation of primary forest and the composition of the surrounding forest matrix, on individual components of seed dispersal of Heliconia acuminata, an Amazonian understory herb. First we identified the effects of landscape configuration on the abundance of fruiting plants and six bird disperser species. Although highly variable in space and time, densities of fruiting plants were similar in continuous forest and fragments. However, the two largest-bodied avian dispersers were less common or absent in small fragments. Second, we determined whether fragmentation affected foraging rates. Fruit removal rates were similar and very high across the landscape, suggesting that Heliconia fruits are a key resource for small frugivores in this landscape. Third, we used radiotelemetry and statistical models to quantify how landscape configuration influences vector movement patterns. Bird dispersers flew farther and faster, and perched longer in primary relative to secondary forests. One species also altered its movement direction in response to habitat boundaries between primary and secondary forests. Finally, we parameterized a simulation model linking data on fruit density and disperser abundance and behavior with empirical estimates of seed retention times to generate seed dispersal patterns in two hypothetical landscapes. Despite clear changes in bird movement in response to landscape configuration, our simulations demonstrate that these differences had negligible effects on dispersal distances. However, small fragments had reduced densities of Turdus albicollis, the largest-bodied disperser and the only one to both regurgitate and defecate seeds. This change in Turdus abundance acted together with lower numbers of fruiting plants in small fragments to decrease the probability of long-distance dispersal events from small patches. These findings emphasize the importance of foraging style for seed dispersal and highlight the primacy of habitat size relative to spatial configuration in preserving biotic interactions.     

Conservation of Fragmented Populations

In this paper we argue that landscape spatial structure is of central importance in understanding the effects of fragmentation on population survival. Landscape spatial structure is the spatial relationships among habitat patches and the matrix in which they are embedded. Many general models of subdivided populations make the assumptions that (1) all habitat patches are equivalent in size and quality and (2) all local populations (in the patches) are equally accessible by dispersers. Models that gloss over spatial details of landscape structure can be useful for theoretical developments but will almost always be misleading when applied to real-world conservation problems. We show that local extinctions of fragmented populations are common. From this it follows that recolonization of local extinctions is critical for regional survival of fragmented populations. The probability of recolonization depends on (1) spatial relationships among landscape elements used by the population, including habitat patches for breeding and elements of the inter-patch matrix through which dispersers move, (2) dispersal characteristics of the organism of interest, and (3) temporal changes in the landscape structure. For endangered species, which are typically restricted in their dispersal range and in the kinds of habitat through which they can disperse, these factors are of primary importance and must be explicitly considered in management decisions.     

Metapopulation Extinction Risk under Spatially Autocorrelated Disturbance

Abstract:  Recent extinction models generally show that spatial aggregation of habitat reduces overall extinction risk because sites emptied by local extinction are more rapidly recolonized. We extended such an investigation to include spatial structure in the disturbance regime. A spatially explicit metapopulation model was developed with a wide range of dispersal distances. The degree of aggregation of both habitat and disturbance pattern could be varied from a random distribution, through the intermediate case of a fractal distribution, all the way to complete aggregation (single block). Increasing spatial aggregation of disturbance generally increased extinction risk. The relative risk faced by populations in different landscapes varied greatly, depending on the disturbance regime. With random disturbance, the spatial aggregation of habitat reduced extinction risk, as in earlier studies. Where disturbance was spatially autocorrelated, however, this advantage was eliminated or reversed because populations in aggregated habitats are at risk of mass extinction from coarse-scale disturbance events. The effects of spatial patterns on extinction risk tended to be reduced by long-distance dispersal. Given the high levels of spatial correlation in natural and anthropogenic disturbance processes, population vulnerability may be greatly underestimated both by classical (nonspatial) models and by those that consider spatial structure in habitat alone.     

Comparison of methods for determining key marine areas from tracking data

There is an urgent need to identify key marine areas for conservation, particularly in the high seas. A range of techniques have been applied to tracking data from higher predators, particularly seabirds and pinnipeds, to determine the areas of greatest use. This study compared three commonly used methods—kernel, first-passage time and state-space modelling—and a new approach, minimum displacement rate, for the analysis of data from the wandering albatross Diomedea exulans of Bird Island, South Georgia, tracked during the chick-rearing period. Applied to a single track, these four models identified similar marine areas as important. The greatest similarity in areas identified occurred when model assumptions were shared (such as slow speed indicating spatial preference) even when methods modelled these assumptions differently (e.g. Bayesian inference versus cumulative density surface). A gridded overlap approach applied to all tracks revealed core areas not apparent from results of any single analysis. The gridded approach also revealed spatial overlap between methods based on different assumptions (e.g. minimum displacement rate and kernel analysis) and between individuals. Although areas identified as important by kernel and first-passage time analysis of a single track were biased towards resting locations during darkness, this does not negate the requirement for their protection. Using the gridded overlap approach, two distinct core regions were identified for the wandering albatross; one close to the breeding colony and another 800 km to the North–West in the high seas. This convenient and pragmatic approach could be applied to large data sets and across species for the identification of a network of candidate marine protected areas in coastal and pelagic waters.     

Dispersal ecology of deadwood organisms and connectivity conservation

Limited knowledge of dispersal for most organisms hampers effective connectivity conservation in fragmented landscapes. In forest ecosystems, deadwood‐dependent organisms (i.e., saproxylics) are negatively affected by forest management and degradation globally. We reviewed empirically established dispersal ecology of saproxylic insects and fungi. We focused on direct studies (e.g., mark‐recapture, radiotelemetry), field experiments, and population genetic analyses. We found 2 somewhat opposite results. Based on direct methods and experiments, dispersal is limited to within a few kilometers, whereas genetic studies showed little genetic structure over tens of kilometers, which indicates long‐distance dispersal. The extent of direct dispersal studies and field experiments was small and thus these studies could not have detected long‐distance dispersal. Particularly for fungi, more studies at management‐relevant scales (1–10 km) are needed. Genetic researchers used outdated markers, investigated few loci, and faced the inherent difficulties of inferring dispersal from genetic population structure. Although there were systematic and species‐specific differences in dispersal ability (fungi are better dispersers than insects), it seems that for both groups colonization and establishment, not dispersal per se, are limiting their occurrence at management‐relevant scales. Because most studies were on forest landscapes in Europe, particularly the boreal region, more data are needed from nonforested landscapes in which fragmentation effects are likely to be more pronounced. Given the potential for long‐distance dispersal and the logical necessity of habitat area being a more fundamental landscape attribute than the spatial arrangement of habitat patches (i.e., connectivity sensu strict), retaining high‐quality deadwood habitat is more important for saproxylic insects and fungi than explicit connectivity conservation in many cases.     

Nonredundancy in the dispersal network of a generalist tropical forest tree

Plant species with generalized dispersal mutualisms are considered to be robust to local frugivore extinctions because of redundancy between dispersal agents. However, real redundancy can only occur if frugivores have similar foraging and ranging patterns and if fruit is a limiting resource. We evaluated the quantitative and qualitative contributions of seed dispersers for an endochorus mast-fruiting species, Prunus javanica (Rosaceae) in Khao Yai National Park, Thailand, to evaluate the potential redundancy of dispersers. Data were collected from tree watches, seed/fruit traps, and seed transects under and away from fruiting trees, feeding and seed deposition by gibbons (Hylobates lar), and evaluations of seed and first-year seedling survival. We identified three clusters of dispersers within the network. Most (>80%) frugivore species observed were small birds and squirrels that were not functional dispersers, dropping most seeds under or very near the tree crown, where seedling survival was ultimately nil. Monkeys (Macaca leonina) were low-quality, short-range dispersers, but they dispersed large numbers of seeds and were responsible for 67% of surviving first-year seedlings. Gibbons and Oriental Pied Hornbills (Anthracoceros albirostris) handled few fruits, but they provided the highest quality service by carrying most seeds away from the canopy to medium and long distances, respectively. Although there was overlap in the deposition patterns of the functional dispersers, they displayed complementary, rather than redundant, roles in seed dispersal. Satiation of all functional dispersers further limited their capacity to "replace" one another. Redundancy must be evaluated at the community level because each type of disperser may shift to different species in the non-masting years of P. javanica. Our results underscore the need for research on broader spatial and temporal scales, which combines studies of dispersal and plant recruitment, to better understand mechanisms that maintain network stability.     

Independent effects of fragmentation on forest songbirds: an organism-based approach.

The degree to which spatial patterns influence the dynamics and distribution of populations is a central question in ecology. This question is even more pressing in the context of rapid habitat loss and fragmentation, which threaten global biodiversity. However, the relative influence of habitat loss and landscape fragmentation, the spatial patterning of remaining habitat, remains unclear. If landscape pattern affects population size, managers may be able to design landscapes that mitigate habitat loss. We present the results of a mensurative experiment designed to test four habitat loss vs. fragmentation hypotheses. Unlike previous studies, we measured landscape structure using quantitative, spatially explicit habitat distribution models previously developed for two species: Blackburnian Warbler (Dendroica fusca) and Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla). We used a stratified sampling design that reduced the confounding of habitat amount and fragmentation variables. Occurrence and reoccurrence of both species were strongly influenced by characteristics at scales greater than the individual territory, indicating little support for the random-sample hypothesis. However, the type and spatial extent of landscape influence differed. Both occurrence and reoccurrence of Blackburnian Warblers were influenced by the amount of poor-quality matrix at 300- and 2000-m spatial extents. The occurrence and reoccurrence of Ovenbirds depended on a landscape pattern variable, patch size, but only in cases when patches were isolated. These results support the hypothesis that landscape pattern is important for some species only when the amount of suitable habitat is low. Although theoretical models have predicted such an interaction between landscape fragmentation and composition, to our knowledge this is the first study to report empirical evidence of such nonlinear fragmentation effects. Defining landscapes quantitatively from an organism-based perspective may increase power to detect fragmentation effects, particularly in forest mosaics where boundaries between patches and matrix are ambiguous. Our results indicate that manipulating landscape pattern may reduce negative impacts of habitat loss for Ovenbird, but not Blackburnian Warbler. We emphasize that most variance in the occurrence of both species was explained by local scale or landscape composition variables rather than variables reflecting landscape pattern.     

Effects of Climate and Land-Use Change on Species Abundance in a Central European Bird Community

Abstract:  Although it is known that changes in land use and climate have an impact on ecological communities, it is unclear which of these factors is currently most important. We sought to determine the influence of land-use and climate alteration on changes in the abundance of Central European birds. We examined the impact of these factors by contrasting abundance changes of birds of different breeding habitat, latitudinal distribution, and migratory behavior. We examined data from the semiquantitative Breeding Bird Atlas of Lake Constance, which borders Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Changes in the regional abundance of the 159 coexisting bird species from 1980–1981 to 2000–2002 were influenced by all three factors. Farmland birds, species with northerly ranges, and long-distance migrants declined, and wetland birds and species with southerly ranges increased in abundance. A separate analysis of the two decades between 1980–1981 and 1990–1992 and between 1990–1992 and 2000–2002 showed that the impact of climate change increased significantly over time. Latitudinal distribution was not significant in the first decade and became the most significant predictor of abundance changes in the second decade. Although the spatial scale and temporal resolution of our study is limited, this is the first study that suggests that climate change has overtaken land-use modification in determining population trends of Central European birds.     

Can variations in the spatial distribution at sea and isotopic niche width be associated with consistency in the isotopic niche of a pelagic seabird species?

This study tested for fluctuations on short-term consistency (within about 1 month) in the isotopic niche of a pelagic seabird species. Short-term consistency in the isotopic niche was assessed using a wide-ranging apex predator, the Cory’s shearwaters Calonectris diomedea, along a 3-year study (2010–2012), during both the pre-laying and chick-rearing periods, with markedly inter- and intra-annual differences in the foraging spatial distribution at sea and isotopic niche width. We used individual movement data and stable isotope data, analysed using recent metrics based in a Bayesian framework, of 69 adults breeding on a small neritic island in the North Atlantic (39°24′N, 009°30′W). As expected, our results confirm that isotopic niche expansion could arise via increased variation in spatial distribution at sea among individuals. Results suggest fluctuations on short-term consistency in the isotopic niche of Cory’s shearwaters related to their different foraging patterns among periods and, ultimately, to presumably temporal changes in the availability and predictability of food resources. Short-term consistency in the isotopic niche was higher and persistent during periods when the population showed an intermediate isotopic niche width and absent when isotopic niche was either smaller or larger during the study period. These results suggest that consistency in the isotopic niche is an important characteristic of this population during the breeding period that may fluctuate depending on resources availability and should be important to understand the dynamics of foraging ecology of pelagic seabirds in general.     

Measuring social-ecological dynamics behind the generation of ecosystem services.

The generation of ecosystem services depends on both social and ecological features. Here we focus on management, its ecological consequences, and social drivers. Our approach combined (1) quantitative surveys of local species diversity and abundance of three functional groups of ecosystem service providers (pollinators, seed dispersers, and insectivores) with (2) qualitative studies of local management practices connected to these services and their underlying social mechanisms, i.e., institutions, local ecological knowledge, and a sense of place. It focused on the ecology of three types of green areas (allotment gardens, cemeteries, and city parks) in the city of Stockholm, Sweden. These are superficially similar but differ considerably in their management. Effects of the different practices could be seen in the three functional groups, primarily as a higher abundance of pollinators in the informally managed allotment gardens and as differences in the composition of seed dispersers and insectivores. Thus, informal management, which is normally disregarded by planning authorities, is important for ecosystem services in the urban landscape. Furthermore, we suggest that informal management has an important secondary function: It may be crucial during periods of instability and change as it is argued to promote qualities with potential for adaptation. Allotment gardeners seem to be the most motivated managers, something that is reflected in their deeper knowledge and can be explained by a sense of place and management institutions. We propose that co-management would be one possible way to infuse the same positive qualities into all management and that improved information exchange between managers would be one further step toward ecologically functional urban landscapes.     

Seed dispersal by pulp consumers, not "legitimate" seed dispersers, increases Guettarda viburnoides population growth

We examined the effect of seed dispersal by Purplish Jays (Cyanocorax cyanomelas; pulp consumers) and the Chestnut-eared Ara?ari (Pteroglossus castanotis; "legitimate" seed dispersers) on population growth of the small tree Guettarda viburnoides (Rubiaceae) in northeastern Bolivian savannas. Because each bird species differs with respect to feeding and post-feeding behavior, we hypothesized that seed dispersal by each species will contribute differently to the rate of increase of G. viburnoides, but that seed dispersal by either species will increase population growth when compared to a scenario with no seed dispersal. To examine the effects of individual dispersers on the future population size of G. viburnoides, we projected population growth rate using demographic models for G. viburnoides that explicitly incorporate data on quantitative and qualitative aspects of seed dispersal by each frugivore species. Our model suggests that seed dispersal by C. cyanomelas leads to positive population growth of G. viburnoides, whereas seed dispersal by P. castanotis has a detrimental effect on the population growth of this species. To our knowledge, this is the first study to report negative effects of a "legitimate" seed disperser on the population dynamics of the plant it consumes. Our results stress the importance of incorporating frugivore effects into population projection matrices, to allow a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of different dispersers for plant population dynamics.