Optimal management with potential regime shifts

We analyze how the threat of a potential future regime shift affects optimal management. We use a simple general growth model to analyze four cases that involve combinations of stock collapse versus changes in system dynamics, and exogenous versus endogenous probabilities of regime shift. Prior work in economics has focused on stock collapse with endogenous probabilities and reaches ambiguous conclusions on whether the potential for regime shift will increase or decrease intensity of resource use and level of resource stock. We show that all other cases yield unambiguous results. In particular, with endogenous probability of regime shift that affects system dynamics the potential for regime shift causes optimal management to become precautionary in the sense of maintaining higher resource stock levels.     

Intergroup conflict,ostracism, and the evolution of cooperation under free migration

Theoretical investigations and quasi-experimental evidence from modern conflict areas suggest that intergroup conflict and ostracism play a pivotal role in the evolution of cooperation. However, there is little direct evidence about the influence of intergroup conflict on human social behavior in the presence of endogenous group formation and unrestricted migration. This study introduces an experiment to examine the impact of intergroup conflict and ostracism on group formation, and human cooperation in a dynamic environment where group size, the occurrence of intergroup hostility and the threat of ostracism are endogenously determined. Here, we show that intergroup conflict may inhibit merging into single large human coalitions. The threat of ostracism is shown to increase the average group size and cooperation within the society. In addition, we find that competitive pressure between groups decreases the likelihood of social exclusion. Our results suggest that free migration between groups suppresses the impact of between-group competition on within-group cooperation. Moreover, our results stress the role of ostracism as a means to repress competition within groups and enhance group success in competition against other groups.     

A model for within-group coalitionary aggression among males

Perhaps the most common form of cooperation among primates is the formation of coalitions. Competition among males within a group concerns a constant quantity of the limiting resource (fertilizations). Contest competition over fertilizations is known to produce payoffs that are distributed according to the priority-of-access model, and hence show an exponential decline in payoff with rank. We develop a model for rank-changing, within-group coalitions among primate males. For these coalitions to occur, they must be both profitable (i.e. improve fitness) for all coalition members and feasible (i.e. be able to beat the targets). We assume that the value of the coalition is the sum of the payoffs of the partners in their original ranks. We distinguish three basic coalition configurations, depending on the dominance ranks of the coalition partners relative to their target. We predict five basic coalition types. First, all-up, rank-changing coalitions targeting individuals ranking above all coalition partners; these are expected to involve coalition partners ranking just below their target, concern top rank, and be small, just two or three animals. Second, bridging, rank-changing coalitions, where higher-rankers support lower-rankers to rise to a rank below themselves; these are expected to be most common where a high-ranking male in a despotic system can support a low-ranking relative. Third, bridging non-rank-changing coalitions; these are expected to be common whenever high-ranking males have low-ranking close relatives. Fourth, non-rank-changing coalitions by high-rankers against lower-ranking targets; these are expected to serve to counteract or prevent the first type. Fifth, non-rank-changing, leveling coalitions, in which all partners rank below their target and which flatten the payoff distribution; these are expected to be large and mainly involve lower-ranking males. Bridging, rank-changing coalitions are expected in situations where contest is strong, all-up rank-changing coalitions where contest is intermediate, and leveling coalitions where contest is weak. We review the empirical patterns found among primates. The strong predictions of the model are confirmed by observational data on male-male coalitions in primates.

International environmental agreements with support

We augment the standard cartel formation game from non-cooperative coalition theory, often applied in the context of international environmental agreements, with the possibility that singletons support coalition formation without becoming coalition members themselves. We assume their support takes the form of a monetary transfer to the coalition, in order to induce larger coalitions, higher levels of public good provision and higher payoffs. We show that, under mild conditions on the costs and benefits of contributing to the public good (e.g. abatement of greenhouse gas emissions), there exist equilibria with support. Allowing for support increases payoffs to each of three types of agents: members, supporters and free-riders.     

A model for leveling coalitions among primate males: toward a theory of egalitarianism

We present a simple model of within-group leveling coalitions among male primates. The model assumes that the value of the coalition is the sum of the payoffs of its members, that the individuals payoff is monotonically decreasing with its rank and that coalitions do not cause rank changes. It predicts that mainly mid- to low rankers engage in leveling coalitions, and that most coalition partners are of adjacent ranks. These predictions agree reasonably well with observations in nature. The model also makes the novel predictions that leveling coalitions are found where male mating competition has only a moderate contest component, and that male dominance ranks will become poorly differentiated where leveling coalitions are frequent. Both these predictions are consistent with observations on groups of macaques and baboons. The model also may account for leveling coalitions among egalitarian human foragers, without making additional assumptions about special human capabilities.

Fitness benefits of coalitionary aggression in male chimpanzees

Coalitionary aggression occurs when at least two individuals jointly direct aggression at one or more conspecific targets. Scientists have long argued that this common form of cooperation has positive fitness consequences. Nevertheless, despite evidence that social bond strength (which is thought to promote coalition formation) is correlated with fitness in primates, cetaceans, and ungulates, few studies have directly examined whether coalitionary aggression improves reproductive success. We tested the hypothesis that among free-ranging chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii), participation in coalitionary aggression increases reproductive output. Using 14 years of genetic and behavioral data from Gombe National Park, Tanzania, we found that coalitionary aggression increased a male’s chances of (A) siring offspring, compared to other males of similar dominance rank, and (B) ascending in rank, a correlate of future reproductive output. Because male chimpanzees form coalitions with many others within a complex network, we used social network analysis to identify the types of connections correlated with these fitness benefits. The beneficiaries of coalitionary aggression were males with the highest “betweenness”—that is, those who tended to have coalition partners who themselves did not form coalitions with each other. This suggests that beyond simply recognizing third-party relationships, chimpanzees may use this knowledge to choose coalition partners. If so, this is a significant step forward in our knowledge of the adaptive value of social intelligence. Regardless of mechanism, however, this is the first evidence of genetic benefits of coalitionary aggression in this species, and therefore has important implications for understanding the evolution of cooperation.     

Economic growth,international trade,and the depletion or conservation of renewable natural resources

Conservation of renewable natural resources and promotion of economic growth are both sustainable development goals. Here, we study the interdependency between economic growth, international trade, and the use of renewable natural resources—under alternative institutional settings of either open access or full property rights—in an endogenous growth model. We find that if the resource is depleted over time, consumption growth is reduced. Economic growth and international trade only impact resource use when the resource is harvested under full property rights. Then, widening international trade can lead countries to shift from conservation to depletion. Changes in the institutional setting of resource use in one country may have repercussions on trading partners. Our results indicate potential trade-offs between the sustainable development goals and imply that policies focusing on resource use or trade (e.g., international trade bans or certified trade) are not sufficient to prevent resource depletion.     

Conspecific threat,predation avoidance,and resource defense: implications for grouping in langurs

Data on langur (Presbytis entellus) populations were gathered from the literature to test the importance of three selective pressures in determining group size and composition: predation pressure, intergroup resource defense, and conspecific threat. There were no detectable difference in the size of groups in populations facing nearly intact predator communities compared to those populations where predators were severely reduced in number or absent, although there was a trend for the number of adult males per group to increase in areas with nearly intact predator communities. Using population density as an indirect measure of the frequency of intrusions into a group’s home range and thereby as an index of the demographic pressure favoring resource defense, we predicted that higher densities would result in larger defensive coalitions and higher numbers of females per group. This prediction was not upheld. Our third selective pressure, conspecific threat, encompasses those selective forces resulting from physical attack on females, infants, and juveniles. Our index of conspecific threat uses the number of non-group males divided by the number of bisexual groups, because in langurs, the major source of conspecific threat derives from non-group males who, following group take-over, kill infants, wound females, and expel juveniles from groups. This index of conspecific threat was strongly related to the mean number of resident females, was weakly related to the mean group size, but was not related to the number of males in the group. In addition, as predicted, populations with a high index of conspecific threat had higher levels of juvenile expulsion. These analyses were corroborated by a simulation model which used a computer-generated series of null populations to calculate expected slopes of immatures regressed on adult females. These randomly generated populations, matched to means and ranges of real populations, allowed us to determine if deviations of the observed slopes from the expected null slopes could be explained by variation in predation pressure, population density, or conspecific threat. We found no evidence that predation pressure was associated with decreases in immature survival in smaller groups, as would be predicted by the predation-avoidance hypothesis. We found no evidence that immature survival was compromised by small group size in high-density populations, as would be predicted by the resource-defense hypothesis. However, as the index of conspecific threat increased, groups with larger numbers of females were more successful than groups with fewer females in reducing mortality or expulsion of immatures. Overall, conspecific threat received the strongest support as a selective pressure influencing langur group size and composition, suggesting that this selective pressure should be evaluated more widely as a factor influencing composition of animal groups. Received: 23 January 1995/Accepted after revision: 18 February 1996     

Incorporating known sources of uncertainty to determine precautionary harvests of saltwater crocodiles.

It has been demonstrated repeatedly that the degree to which regulation operates and the magnitude of environmental variation in an exploited population will together dictate the type of sustainable harvest achievable. Yet typically, harvest models fail to incorporate uncertainty in the underlying dynamics of the target population by assuming a particular (unknown) form of endogenous control. We use a novel approach to estimate the sustainable yield of saltwater crocodile (Crocodylus porosus) populations from major river systems in the Northern Territory, Australia, as an example of a system with high uncertainty. We used multimodel inference to incorporate three levels of uncertainty in yield estimation: (1) uncertainty in the choice of the underlying model(s) used to describe population dynamics, (2) the error associated with the precision and bias of model parameter estimation, and (3) environmental fluctuation (process error). We demonstrate varying strength of evidence for density regulation (1.3-96.7%) for crocodiles among 19 river systems by applying a continuum of five dynamical models (density-independent with and without drift and three alternative density-dependent models) to time series of density estimates. Evidence for density dependence increased with the number of yearly transitions over which each river system was monitored. Deterministic proportional maximum sustainable yield (PMSY) models varied widely among river systems (0.042-0.611), and there was strong evidence for an increasing PMSY as support for density dependence rose. However, there was also a large discrepancy between PMSY values and those produced by the full stochastic simulation projection incorporating all forms of uncertainty, which can be explained by the contribution of process error to estimates of sustainable harvest. We also determined that a fixed-quota harvest strategy (up to 0.2K, where K is the carrying capacity) reduces population size much more rapidly than proportional harvest (the latter strategy requiring temporal monitoring of population size to adjust harvest quotas) and greatly inflates the risk of resource depletion. Using an iconic species recovering from recent extreme overexploitation to examine the potential for renewed sustainable harvest, we have demonstrated that incorporating major forms of uncertainty into a single quantitative framework provides a robust approach to modeling the dynamics of exploited populations.     

Reproductive success increases with degree of kinship in cooperative coalitions of female red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus)

Evaluation of evolutionary mechanisms proposed to promote cooperative behavior depends on the relative influence of the behavior on the reproductive success of individuals, the reproductive success of the group in which they interact behaviorally, and the degree of gene correlation among cooperators. The genetic relationship within cooperative coalitions of female red howler monkeys was examined for three populations with different densities and growth rates. Patterns of gene correlation change within coalitions is documented using data from the mitochondrial and nuclear genomes, and long-term census monitoring. Differences in fecundity and infant survivorship within and between groups of unrelated (rˉ=0) and related (rˉ≥ 0.25) females are compared. Females that emigrate from their natal groups form coalitions with other migrant females. These coalitions attempt to establish a territory and, once successful in producing offspring, exclude other females from feeding resources. Females in these coalitions had different mtDNA haplotypes and a genetically estimated mean r of 0, supporting demographic data on emigration patterns indicating that these females rarely have the opportunity to form coalitions with kin. Patterns of recruitment and rate of matriline development within social groups supported behavioral data indicating that females actively attempt to promote their own matriline as breeders over that of other females, and that some matrilines are more successful at this than others. Mean r among females was significantly higher in coalitions established as social groups for several generations (rˉ=0.44). In these groups, females all shared the same mtDNA haplotype, and mtDNA haplotype divergence was significantly higher between than within groups. Females in coalitions with kin had significantly higher reproductive success than females in unrelated coalitions in all populations. This difference was not a function of coalition size, number of males, socionomic sex ratio, or primiparity, although anecdotal evidence suggests that allomothering may compensate for inept new mothers in related coalitions more often than in unrelated ones. Differences in territory quality could not be ruled out as a potential causal factor in the saturated populations, but were unlikely in the low-density, growing population. There were substantial differences among long-established coalitions in overall reproductive output in all three populations, and this was significantly correlated with the number of breeding females. Increase in coalition size was a function of both group age and the behavioral tolerance among females. Regardless of the underlying reasons for the patterns observed, reproductive success clearly increases with degree of gene correlation among females within cooperative coalitions, and coalitions that recruit more daughters produce more offspring. The nature of the cooperative relationship among group females directly influences both of these outcomes. This is associated with substantial genetic differentiation among social groups within populations, creating conditions in which genetic tendencies towards cooperative behavior can become tightly associated with group reproductive success. Received: 15 September 1999 / Revised: 27 April 2000 / Accepted: 27 May 2000     

Food site residence time and female competitive relationships in wild gray-cheeked mangabeys (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lophocebus albigena</Emphasis>)

Authors of socioecological models propose that food distribution affects female social relationships in that clumped food resources, such as fruit, result in strong dominance hierarchies and favor coalition formation with female relatives. A number of Old World monkey species have been used to test predictions of the socioecological models. However, arboreal forest-living Old World monkeys have been understudied in this regard, and it is legitimate to ask whether predominantly arboreal primates living in tropical forests exhibit similar or different patterns of behavior. Therefore, the goal of our study was to investigate female dominance relationships in relation to food in gray-cheeked mangabeys (Lophocebus albigena). Since gray-cheeked mangabeys are largely frugivorous, we predicted that females would have linear dominance hierarchies and form coalitions. In addition, recent studies suggest that long food site residence time is another important factor in eliciting competitive interactions. Therefore, we also predicted that when foods had long site residence times, higher-ranking females would be able to spend longer at the resource than lower-ranking females. Analyses showed that coalitions were rare relative to some other Old World primate species, but females had linear dominance hierarchies. We found that, contrary to expectation, fruit was not associated with more agonism and did not involve long site residence times. However, bark, a food with a long site residence time and potentially high resource value, was associated with more agonism, and higher-ranking females were able to spend more time feeding on it than lower-ranking females. These results suggest that higher-ranking females may benefit from higher food and energy intake rates when food site residence times are long. These findings also add to accumulating evidence that food site residence time is a behavioral contributor to female dominance hierarchies in group-living species.     

Self-enforcing environmental agreements and trade in fossil energy deposits

The literature on self-enforcing environmental agreements (SIEAs) focuses on de- mand-side emission-reduction policies. To our knowledge, Harstad (2012) is the only study on SIEAs, in which countries purchase fossil-energy deposits to prevent their exploitation. He finds that for any coalition size there exists a (small) subset of parameters, different for each size, such that the coalition of that size is stable. However, the comparison of Harstad's results with the prevailing demand-side SIEA analyses is hampered by major differences in the structure of the respective game models. This paper develops a game model with a deposit market and deposit purchases for preservation that is in line with some demand-side SIEA literature. It turns out that either no coalition is stable or the grand coalition is the only stable coalition. We compare the outcome of our model not only with Harstad's model but also with Eichner and Pethig's (2015) model of the formation of SIEAs in which climate policy takes the form of (demand-side) emissions taxes.     

The reproductive consequences of male cooperation in the red howler monkey: paternity exclusion in multi-male and single-male troops using genetic markers

Summary Variance in male reproductive success in single and multi-male red howler (Alouatta seniculus) troops was examined through paternity exclusion using genetic markers. Coalitions of relatives were compared to coalitions of non-relatives with regard to duration, stability, and number of offspring expected for each participant based on paternity exclusion results. No evidence of paternity by males living outside of the troop was found. In multi-male troops, only the dominant male was found to father offspring conceived during his tenure. This was the only male observed to mount females. In both troops examined genetically wherein a status change had occurred, paternity changed with status. Coalitions of relatives and potential relatives lasted significantly longer than coalitions of non-relatives, and experienced fewer status changes between males. A direct advantage of forming a coalition for both dominant and subordinate red howler males resulted from the superior competitive ability of coalitions over single males in establishing and maintaining tenure in the limited number of female troops in the population. Although the mating success of a subordinate male in a coalition appears to be extremely low, his chances of achieving membership in a bisexual troop as a single male may be even lower. Since the majority of troops in the population during any given year were multi-male or age-graded male (85%–96%), the number of troops that a single male would be able to invade unaided was very small. A subordinate male may be able to assume dominance, particularly if he is a subadult. In coalitions in which males are related, the subordinate male will further benefit from inclusive fitness. A dominant male that forms a coalition with a relative can expect to have longer reproductive tenure than in a troop with a non-relative, thereby producing more offspring and directly enhancing his fitness. Anecdotal evidence suggests that males choose relatives over non-relatives as coalition partners when possible.     

Priming concerns about pathogen threat versus resource scarcity: dissociable effects on women’s perceptions of men’s attractiveness and dominance

Previous experimental work suggests flexibility in women’s mate preferences that appears to reflect the advantages of choosing healthy mates under conditions of pathogen threat and of choosing prosocial mates under conditions of resource scarcity. Following this work, we used an established priming paradigm to examine the effects of priming women’s concerns about pathogen threat versus resource scarcity on their judgments of men’s facial attractiveness and dominance. We found that women reported stronger attraction to masculine men when their concerns about pathogens were activated than when their concerns about resource scarcity were activated. In contrast, we found that women were more likely to ascribe high dominance to masculine men when their concerns about resource scarcity were activated than when their concerns about pathogens were activated. This latter result may reflect the greater importance of identifying men who pose a substantial threat to women’s resources and personal safety when resources are scarce and violence towards women is particularly common. Together, these findings suggest a double dissociation between the effects of pathogen threat and resource scarcity on women’s perceptions of the attractiveness and dominance of masculine men, potentially revealing considerably greater specialization (i.e., context specificity) in the effects of environmental threats on women’s perceptions of men than was apparent in previous research.     

The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings

We critically evaluate the empirical basis for the so-called resource curse and find that, despite the topic's popularity in economics and political science research, this apparent paradox may be a red herring. The most commonly used measure of “resource abundance” can be more usefully interpreted as a proxy for “resource dependence”—endogenous to underlying structural factors. In multiple estimations that combine resource abundance and dependence, institutional, and constitutional variables, we find that (i) resource abundance, constitutions, and institutions determine resource dependence, (ii) resource dependence does not affect growth, and (iii) resource abundance positively affects growth and institutional quality.     

Domestic politics and the formation of international environmental agreements

We investigate the effect of domestic politics on international environmental policy by incorporating into a classic stage game of coalition formation the phenomenon of lobbying by special-interest groups. In doing so, we contribute to the theory of international environmental agreements, which has overwhelmingly assumed that governments make decisions based on a single set of public-interest motivations. Our results suggest that lobbying on emissions may affect the size of the stable coalition in counterintuitive ways. In particular, a powerful business lobby may increase the government's incentives to sign an agreement, by providing it with strong bargaining power with respect to that lobby at the emission stage. This would result in lower total emissions when the number of countries involved is not too large. We also show that things change radically when lobbying bears directly on the membership decisions, suggesting that both the object and timing of lobbying matter for the way in which membership decisions, emissions and welfare are affected.     

Cost-effective unilateral climate policy design: Size matters

Given the bleak prospects for a global agreement on mitigating climate change, pressure for unilateral abatement is increasing. A major challenge is emissions leakage. Border carbon adjustments and output-based allocation of emissions allowances can increase effectiveness of unilateral action but introduce distortions of their own. We assess antileakage measures as a function of abatement coalition size. We first develop a partial equilibrium analytical framework to see how these instruments affect emissions within and outside the coalition. We then employ a computable general equilibrium model of international trade and energy use to assess the strategies as the coalition grows. We find that full border adjustments rank first in global cost-effectiveness, followed by import tariffs and output-based rebates. The differences across measures and their overall appeal decline as the abatement coalition grows. In terms of cost, the coalition countries prefer border carbon adjustments; countries outside the coalition prefer output-based rebates.     

Renewable resources in an endogenously growing economy: balanced growth and transitional dynamics

We introduce a renewable resource sector into an endogenous growth model of a small economy, deriving the transitional dynamic equilibrium. The model generates a long-run equilibrium in which a resource sector of limited size can coexist with constant ongoing growth elsewhere. The key feature of the model is the allocation of labor between harvesting the resource and its use in the final output sector. This naturally generates the empirically observed negative relationship between resource abundance and growth. We examine both the dynamic and long-run responses of the economy to various shocks pertaining to technological production conditions and resource sector parameters.     

Invading together: the benefits of coalition dispersal in a cooperative bird

Dispersal attempts can be costly and may often end in failure. Individuals should therefore only disperse when the benefits of dispersal outweigh the costs. While previous research has focussed on aspects of the individual that may affect dispersal success, social factors may also influence dispersal outcomes. One way of achieving successful dispersal could be through cooperative, or coalition dispersal. I investigated this possibility in the cooperatively breeding Arabian babbler Turdoides squamiceps. I found that coalition dispersal appears to be an effective strategy to ensure the success of dispersal attempts, with coalitions more successful than lone individuals at taking over the breeding position in a new group. Lone dispersal was more costly than coalition dispersal, with lone individuals suffering a greater loss of body mass during dispersal attempts. These results suggest a substantial short-term benefit for this type of cooperative behaviour. There was no evidence for dispersal polymorphism in the population, with no detectable phenotypic difference between dispersers and non-dispersers or those that dispersed as part of a coalition compared with those that dispersed alone.     

Complementarity,impatience, and the resilience of natural-resource-dependent economies

We study how society's preferences affect the resilience of economies that depend on more than one type of natural resource. In particular, we analyze whether the degree of complementarity of natural resources in consumer preferences may give rise to multiple steady states and path dependence even when resources are managed optimally. We find that, for a given social discount rate, society tends to be less willing to buffer exogenous shocks if resource good are complements in consumption than if they are substitutes. The stronger the complementarity between the various types of natural resources, the less resilient the economy is, and even more so the higher is the social discount rate.