对外贸易技术效应与中国工业CO2排放绩效

随着对外贸易规模的扩大,对外贸易技术效应对中国工业CO2排放的影响如何?主要通过何种技术溢出途径影响工业CO2排放,是否存在行业异质性?本文基于DEA非参数方法测算了中国34个工业行业2001-2010年的Malmquist-Luenberger CO2排放绩效及其分解指数,并运用投入产出表构建进口和出口贸易水平技术溢出、出口贸易后向技术溢出以及进口贸易前向技术溢出四种指标,进而考察对外贸易技术效应对CO2排放绩效及其分解指数的影响。全行业的研究表明,出口贸易水平技术溢出抑制了技术进步,而出口贸易水平技术溢出和后向技术溢出促进了技术效率的改进;进口贸易水平技术溢出抑制了技术效率的改善,而进口贸易前向技术溢出促进了技术效率的提升。分行业看,出口贸易技术效应对两类行业CO2排放绩效分解指数的影响基本一致,而进口贸易技术效应的影响迥异。本文最后建议,我国应不断优化出口贸易技术结构,鼓励与促进出口贸易企业的本土化采购,扩大进口贸易中高新技术产品份额,以充分发挥对外贸易技术效应对CO2排放绩效的积极作用。     

中国出口贸易中隐含碳排放增长的结构分解分析

作为出口贸易大国,中国的出口贸易中隐含碳排放总量相当可观,而且还呈现出不断增长的态势。采用投入产出分析方法,对1997和2007年中国出口贸易中隐含碳排放进行了核算,结果分别为290.61Mt和940.69Mt,占中国生产活动碳排放总量的比重分别为28.47%和45.53%。进而构建结构分解分析模型,将影响出口贸易隐含碳排放变化的因素分解为4种:直接碳排放强度效应、中间生产技术效应、出口总量效应和出口结构效应。并以1997-2007年为样本期,进行了实证分析。结果显示,上述4个因素的贡献值分别为-638.95Mt、132.41 Mt1、266.38 Mt和-109.77Mt。可见造成出口贸易隐含碳排放增加的主要原因就在于出口总量的不断增长;其次是中间生产技术的变化。虽然直接碳排放强度下降和出口结构改善都产生了一定的减排效应,但是相对于巨大出口量所产生的增排效应,仍显得微不足道,因而中国的出口贸易隐含碳排放还是呈不断增长态势。     

中国出口隐含碳增长的影响因素分析

作为"世界加工厂",我国排放的CO2很大一部分是隐含在出口产品中由国外消费的,了解我国出口隐含碳排放增长的影响因素对于制定合理的气候政策具有重要意义。本文采用投入产出法和结构分解分析,计算了我国出口贸易隐含碳排放增长的影响因素。结果表明:中国出口隐含碳排放从1997到2005年增加了14.64亿t(202%),其中出口量的上升是推动其增长的主要因素,它的贡献高达237%;生产结构和出口结构的变化分别使之增长了65%和5%;排放强度的降低只抵消了105%。其中对出口隐含碳排放增长影响最大的五个部门是:电子及通信设备制造业、化学工业、纺织业、仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业和电气机械及器材制造业,最后针对测算结果提出政策建议。     

最终需求拉动下的CO2排放驱动因素研究:1997-2007

我国要实现在哥本哈根会议上承诺的减排目标,有赖于正确判断相关因素对我国CO2排放的影响强度和作用机理.减排目标的实现受诸多因素的影响,从生产层面到消费层面,从结构因素到效率因素都有涉及.本文从最终需求的视角,同时考虑生产和消费的影响因素,运用投入产出模型和对数平均Divisia指数分解法,考察了1997-2002、2002 - 2007年两个时段相关影响因素的变化对总排放变化的总贡献和部门贡献.研究结果表明,最终需求总量的不断增长是拉动总排放增加的主要驱动因素,重化工部门能耗强度的降低是促进减排的主要驱动因素；化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、非金属矿物制品业部门中间投入技术的变动是影响总技术效应的主要部门因素；能耗结构、产业结构和消费构成的变化所技动的减排效应量波动状态.文章提出减排不仅要从生产层面更要从消费层面下功夫,不仅要提高技术效率还要注重调整结构.     

中国贸易隐含污染转移研究

本文基于WIOD、UNCTAD数据库,以8种污染物作为污染排放指标,构建了中国及其主要贸易伙伴国之间的环境多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,并测算了中国贸易隐含污染净出口量及双边贸易污染转移量,继而引入贸易污染条件分析双边贸易对中国及其贸易伙伴国的不同影响。结果表明:中国在观察期(2000—2011年)内均为贸易隐含污染净出口国,且贸易隐含碳净出口量先升后降,而贸易隐含其他污染物净出口量却逐年递增。2011年中国基于生产端核算污染排放总量达685.69亿t,基于消费端核算污染排放量为635.50亿t,贸易隐含污染净出口总量达50.19亿t;双边贸易污染转移中中国成为了发达国家的"污染天堂"。2011年美国、欧盟、日本通过贸易向中国分别净转移污染物总量分别达到26 464.48万t、40 837.45万t、8 001.19万t,但中国与亚洲其他地区之间并不存在单向污染转移关系。中美、中欧、中日之间的贸易污染条件介于0.95~61.89之间,即双边贸易在恶化中国环境的同时对促进美国、欧盟、日本环境的改善作用明显,中国与亚洲其他地区之间的贸易污染条件介于0.40~6.41之间,因而双边贸易对中国和亚洲其他地区的环境影响并不确定。中国与任何伙伴国之间采掘业、电力煤气供应业等行业的贸易均严重增加了国内污染物排放。意味着:一方面,限制"两高一资"产品的出口等政策已改善了中国贸易隐含碳排放,但未对贸易隐含其他污染物排放产生作用;另一方面,中国不仅需要提高资源密集行业生产技术绿色化程度,更要严格控制这类行业的进出口贸易。     

主要部门污染物控制政策的温室气体协同效果分析与评价

工程减排、结构减排和监督管理减排是实现我国污染物减排的三个主要措施,近年来我国SO2的排放呈现出下降的态势,本文选取电力、钢铁和水泥这3个重要行业,测算了在"十一五"以来SO2的减排效果,以及由其带来CO2减排的协同效果。结果显示,"十一五"期间,3个主要行业减少污染物排放超过1 000万t,其中工程减少污染物排放超过700万t,结构减少污染物排放300万t。由此带来的协同效果显示,由于结构减排带来了超过7亿t CO2的减排,而由于工程效应减少污染物的同时带来的CO2增加500万t,因此总计带来7-8亿t CO2的减排。而"十二五"前两年减少污染物排放400万t,其中工程减少污染物排放350万t,结构污染物排放减少了40万t。由此带来的协同效果显示,由于结构减排减少了CO2排放1.74亿t,而由于工程效应减少污染物的同时带来的CO2的增加量为200万t,因此总计带来1.72亿t CO2的减排。结构减排和工程减排两种措施可以在行业内实现降低污染物的排放,但是其贡献程度由于行业的差异有所不同。"十一五"期间电力行业较多是依靠工程减排实现SO2排放的降低,而水泥和钢铁行业则更多是依靠行政命令如关停落后产能和机组实现污染物的减排,显示出电力行业通过技术实现污染物的减排,而其他两个行业则主要靠调整结构来实现减排。电力行业中的末端治理技术即工程减排贡献了大部分的污染物减排,但是与此同时由于末端治理技术会导致能源消耗的增加,即引起CO2排放的增加,因此污染物的协同控制效果较差,而钢铁和水泥行业的污染物减排则由于更多是通过结构调整的手段,如关停落后产能和机组,因此其协同效果较为显著。"十三五"期间,需要继续控制双高产业的发展,强化"前端"污染物控制减排,夯实结构减排的协同成效,加大工程减排的实施,缩小减排工程能力和实际减排效果的差距,实现"末端"污染物减排,加强"前端"审批和"中段"运行管理效果。     

基于碳排放权价值的中国省域绿色贸易利益测度北大核心CSCDCSSCI

作为碳排放大国和出口强国,中国获得贸易顺差的背后是生产出口产品所带来的巨量碳排放。科学测算碳排放导致的价值损失,对“双碳”目标下的绿色发展具有重要意义。该研究通过构建嵌入式多区域投入产出表,从双边贸易层面和行业层面,分析中国30个省份进出口贸易隐含碳的现状,并利用碳排放权价值测算各省份对外贸易的环境净损失;在增加值贸易利益的基础上,进一步考察中国省域绿色贸易利益。研究表明,从双边贸易层面看,中国省域出口贸易隐含碳主要由美国和欧盟转入,进口贸易隐含碳主要向巴西、俄罗斯、印度、印度尼西亚、墨西哥和土耳其转出。对东盟贸易隐含碳占比较大的省份主要位于西南地区,对BRIIMT贸易隐含碳占比较大的省份主要位于北部地区,对日韩贸易隐含碳占比较大的省份主要位于东部地区。从行业层面看,出口贸易隐含碳集中在制造业和电热生产供应业,占比之和超过70%,且各省份的行业结构具有一定差异性。进口贸易隐含碳集中在电热生产供应业和运输业,占比之和约63%。引入碳排放权价值后,中国30省份的绿色贸易利益相比于增加值贸易利益减少0.94%。作为隐含碳净出口国,中国有28个省份在对外贸易中承担环境净损失。其中新疆和甘肃环境净损失的比重最高,分别为69.29%和57.43%。天津、吉林等7个省份在损失增加值贸易利益的同时,还承担着净出口贸易隐含碳带来的环境污染。针对结论,该研究提出大力发展清洁能源、省域间差异化减排、优化对外贸易结构的建议。     

基于投入产出法的中国出口产品隐含碳测算

使用投入产出法,利用1999 -2008年中国海关货物出口商品分类数据,研究和测算了中国出口商品中的隐含碳.研究结果显示,中国是隐含碳的出口大国,出口贸易是中国CO2排放量逐年增长的重要原因.1999 - 2008年,我国出口产品中的隐含碳由1999年的3.8亿t上升至2008年的11.9亿t,在此期间,中国CO2年排放量的12％ -24％是因生产满足国际市场消费的产品而产生的.中国出口产品中的隐含碳主要集中在5大类行业,分别为:纺织业及服装鞋帽制造业、化学医药制造业、黑色及有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、通用及专用机械设备、电气机械及器材制造业.这5大类行业的出口产品中的隐含碳在中国出口产品的隐含碳总量中占到80％左右.中国出口产品隐含碳的主要流向是美国、欧盟和日本.在实证研究结果的基础上,本文认为国际社会应从生产者负责制和消费者负责制相结合的角度界定各国的碳排放责任和减排目标；同时建议我国应提高生产技术,降低产品的能源消耗强度,并限制能源密集型产业产品的出口.     

城市产业部门CO2排放三层次核算研究

城市是人类生产和生活的中心,超过75%的温室气体从城市产生,其中又以城市产业部门能源消费和工业过程非能源产生的CO2为主。本文基于投入产出模型,评价城市产业部门3个不同层次的CO2排放。以重庆为案例,核算其2002-2008年产业部门三个层次的CO2排放,包括能源消费直接排放、购买电力间接排放和全生命周期排放,并进行多层次对比。结果显示传统能源消耗和购买电力为对象的核算方法低估了产业部门CO2排放水平。2002-2008年,重庆各产业部门排放量逐年增加,碳排放强度整体呈现下降趋势。煤炭开采和洗选业、非金属矿采选业、非金属矿物制品业、电力、热力的生产和供应业,化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、交通运输、仓储及邮电通讯业部门共7大行业是重庆碳排放的重点行业。部门交通设备制造业是重庆的优势产业,排放总量大,但是排放强度却相对较小,因此应大力发展该产业以促进重庆市低碳经济的发展。     

基于CGE模型的出口退税政策调整的减排效应研究

我国的出口贸易带来的直接和间接二氧化碳(CO2)排放量占全国CO2排放总量的比重已高达47.8%(2007年)。出口退税政策是调整出口贸易的重要措施,实施出口退税的减免政策可以实现CO2的减排。基于此,本文从行业的角度出发,首先利用投入产出技术选取了制造工业、钢铁工业、化学工业和纺织工业为目标减排部门,并以政策作用在四个目标部门以实现到2020年相同减排目标作为政策情景(M-S,F-S,C-S和T-S情景),利用可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)模拟不同政策情景对我国经济和社会的影响。研究结果表明:在相同减排水平下,无论从GDP指标还是从就业指标,或者从居民福利来看,对钢铁行业实施出口退税减免的政策情景均是这几个情景中的最优选择,政策效果最差的属纺织业情景。同时,各种政策情景均会使农村居民的福利损失更大,进一步拉大城乡差距,因此政策实施时应考虑配套措施以保护农村居民福利水平。     

Research on carbon emissions in China's export trade based on input-output model

Becoming the world’s largest emitter of carbon makes China the object of criticism;however,people may ignore the fact that when China exports low-carbon products,the carbon emissions have been left in the meanwhile,forming the so-called"embodied carbon".Using the input-output model,this paper analyzes the carbon emission intensity and amount of embodied carbon of various sectors in China’s export trade in 2002 and 2007,and filters out high carbon emission sectors.In addition,this paper also points out the problem of carbon emissions’international transfer from developed countries to China through the analysis of national and regional flow of export carbon emissions and changing of the proportion of emissions for exports relative to total emissions,and explains the reason that caused carbon transfer to China by using the treadmill of production theory.Based on that,this paper proposes some measures for carbon reduction in China from the foreign trade perspective.     

Influences of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Foreign Trade

Abstract

The EU, the United States and other economies, with the intention to implement unilateral trade measures Border Carbon Adjustments, impose emission reduction pressure on developing countries. Once implemented, the measures will have great impact on China’s foreign trade. Using the input-output table in 2007, this paper had analyzed the influences on China’s foreign trade as a whole and sub-sectors in three tax rates scenarios. The results showed that the tariff level of China’s exports will increase by 3.6%–6.3% if the tax was levied on exports embodied emissions, and by 1.0%–1.7% if levied on export direct emissions. In 2007, the former total amount of carbon tax was about US$42.6–73.0 billion, 4 times that of the latter. Based on export embodied emissions, sectors largely influenced were non-traditional energy intensive ones, such as textile, et al. These sectors should be encouraged to carry out industrial upgrading, raising the value-added of export goods, and reducing their embodied emissions by reduction of energy intensity. Taking into account of the complexity of data collection, the tax levied on products direct emission is more operational. The results showed that the five top sectors most affected were other chemical materials, processing of petroleum and nuclear fuel, coking, smelting and rolling of ferrous metal and textile. Most of them were energy intensive sectors. Therefore, adjusting export products structure, and controlling too fast development of energy intensive industries are also important strategies in China.     

Influences of Border Carbon Adjustments on China’s Foreign Trade

The EU, the United States and other economies, with the intention to implement unilateral trade measures Border Carbon Adjustments, impose emission reduction pressure on developing countries. Once implemented, the measures will have great impact on China’s foreign trade. Using the input-output table in 2007, this paper had analyzed the influences on China’s foreign trade as a whole and sub-sectors in three tax rates scenarios. The results showed that the tariff level of China’s exports will increase by 3.6%-6.3% if the tax was levied on exports embodied emissions, and by 1.0%-1.7% if levied on export direct emissions. In 2007, the former total amount of carbon tax was about US$42.6-73.0 billion, 4 times that of the latter. Based on export embodied emissions, sectors largely influenced were non-traditional energy intensive ones, such as textile, et al. These sectors should be encour-aged to carry out industrial upgrading, raising the value-added of export goods, and reducing their embodied emissions by reduction of energy intensity. Taking into account of the complexity of data collection, the tax levied on products direct emission is more operational. The results showed that the five top sectors most affected were other chemical materials, processing of petroleum and nuclear fuel, coking, smelting and rolling of ferrous metal and textile. Most of them were energy intensive sectors. Therefore, adjusting export products structure, and controlling too fast development of energy intensive industries are also important strategies in China.     

Carbon Embodied in International Trade of China and Its Emission Responsibility

Carbon emissions embodied in international trade of China during 1997-2007 are accounted by input-output method based on Chinese input-output table and global trade analysis project database.It is revealed that carbon emissions embodied in imports and exports both increased during 1997-2007,but carbon emissions embodied in exports are greater than those embodied in imports,China is a net export nation in embodied carbon.The net exports of embodied carbon account for about 10.82% of the total carbon emissions in 1997,dropped to 7.15% in 2002,increased to13.13% in 2006,and slightly dropped to 12.64% in 2007.Low-end position of international industry division is an objective factor of being a net exporter of embodied carbon for China,and usage of a large amount of obsolete energy-using equipments wasted much energy and increased carbon emissions embodied in exports.Importers should take more responsibilities for carbon emissions embodied in trade,and China should take a certain responsibility for unreasonable energy dissipations too.     

Empirically Analysis of the CO2 Emissions Embodied in Exports of China

In this paper,using the input-output model,the author first calculated the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China in 2002 and 2007.Then,the author empirically analyzed problems existing in the composition of exported products and analyzed its possible reasons.The research results of this paper are as follows:Since China’s entry into WTO,the CO 2 emissions embodied in exports of China have been increasing rapidly;the value of exported products of high-carbon emissions industries accounts for a relatively higher proportion to China’s total exports value because China’s carbon intensive products have a certain competitive advantage.Additionally,this paper has put forward relevant suggestions based on these results.     

Energy Embodied in Goods in International Trade of China: Calculation and Policy Implications

Abstract

In recent years, China’s energy demand and Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have grown very fast, quite an amount of which was exported as energy embodied in goods in international trade rather than consumed domestically. Starting from the concept of embodied energy, based on input-output energy analysis approach, in this paper the energy embodied in goods in international trade of China during the period from 2001 to 2006 is calculated. The results show that although China has become a net importer of petroleum since 1993, China is a net exporter of embodied energy due to international trade in goods. In 2002, the total amount of energy embodied in exported goods was about 410 million tce (ton of coal equivalent, hereinafter referred to as “tce”). Eliminating the amount of energy embodied in imported goods of about 170 million tce, the net export of embodied energy was about 240 million tce, accounting for 16% of the aggregate primary energy consumption of that very year in China, and the net export of embodied emissions was about 150 million tons of carbon. With the rapid growth of China’s international trade, assuming no structural input-output changes of among sectors, in 2006 the net export of embodied energy went up to about 630 million tce, an increase of 162 % over 2002. In addition, this paper also analyzes the possible sources of error in calculation, and also discusses the policy implications according to the result of the calculation.     

晶硅光伏组件出口对中国碳排放的影响

基于文献资料,估算了2004-2009年中国晶硅光伏组件制造过程中的能源消耗和CO2排放强度。研究发现,2004-2009年,晶硅光伏组件制造过程中的能耗强度和CO2排放强度均逐年下降。2009年,单晶、多晶光伏组件制造过程中的能耗强度分别为2 629 kWh/kWp和2 242 kWh/kWp,碳排放强度分别为1 829 gCO2/Wp和1 559 gCO2/Wp。由于晶硅光伏组件的大量出口,中国不仅出口了大量的隐含碳,还损失了数量可观的、潜在的CO2减排能力。2004-2010年,中国的隐含碳净出口量由3万tCO2增加到852万tCO2;如果出口的晶硅电池全部用于国内,在其生命周期内累计可减排CO23.4亿t。除2004年和2010年外,国内安装的晶硅光伏组件在其生命周期内所能减少的CO2排放不足以抵消晶硅光伏行业的CO2排放,晶硅光伏行业对中国CO2减排的贡献为负。在多晶硅全部国产的情况下,中国若维持晶硅电池应用中的CO2减排量与全行业CO2排放量的平衡,至少应将晶硅组件制造的7.2%安装在国内使用。若多晶硅进口比例仍保持在50%左右,则至少应将晶硅组件制造的4.9%安装在国内使用。     

China’s Export Expansion, Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Since the reform and opening up,China’s export trade has maintained a rapid growth;meanwhile,China’s energy consumption has been increasing sharply. "High export and high energy consumption" has become the feature of China’s trade and economic development.In this paper,based on the input-output analysis approach,the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors.The results show that,China is a big net exporter of embodied energy.Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%,the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years,and based on the input-output data of 2005,by 2030 China’s net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production,which is obviously infeasible.As a country of very low per capita energy,China must change its export pattern,encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity,and promote structural change of energy-efficient exported products,so as to achieve the sustainable development.Accordingly,the authors put forward some suggestions.     

Energy Embodied in Goods in International Trade of China: Calculation and Policy Implications

In recent years, China’s energy demand and Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have grown very fast, quite an amount of which was exported as energy embodied in goods in international trade rather than consumed domestically. Starting from the concept of embodied energy, based on input-output energy analysis approach, in this paper the energy embodied in goods in international trade of China during the period from 2001 to 2006 is calculated. The results show that although China has become a net importer of petroleum since 1993, China is a net exporter of embodied energy due to international trade in goods. In 2002, the total amount of energy embodied in exported goods was about 410 million tce (ton of coal equivalent, hereinafter referred to as "tce"). Eliminating the amount of energy embodied in imported goods of about 170 million tce, the net export of embodied energy was about 240 million tce, accounting for 16% of the aggregate primary energy consumption of that very year in China, and the net export of embodied emissions was about 150 million tons of carbon. With the rapid growth of China’s international trade, assuming no structural input-output changes of among sectors, in 2006 the net export of embodied energy went up to about 630 million tce, an increase of 162 % over 2002. In addition, this paper also analyzes the possible sources of error in calculation, and also discusses the policy implications according to the result of the calculation.     

China＇s Export Expansion, Export Structure and Energy Consumption

Since the reform and opening up, China＇s export trade has maintained a rapid growth; meanwhile, China＇s energy consumption has been increasing sharply. ＂High export and high energy consumption＂ has become the feature of China＇s trade and economic development. In this paper, based on the input-output analysis approach, the authors have conducted an empirical study on the export trade and energy consumption of 21 trade industrial sectors. The results show that, China is a big net exporter of embodied energy. Assuming that the export growth rate of embodied energy maintains to be about 23.6%, the average annual growth rate of the past 32 years, and based on the input-output data of 2005, by 2030 China＇s net export of embodied energy would be over eight times more than the aggregate energy production, which is obviously infeasible. As a country of very low per capita en- ergy, China must change its export pattern, encourage or restrain the export of different industrial sectors according to their energy consumption intensity, and promote structural change of energy- efficient exported products, so as to achieve the sustainable development. Accordingly, the authors put forward some suggestions.