经济集聚对雾霾污染影响的空间计量研究——以长江三角洲地区为例

雾霾污染是困扰中国经济发展的重大民生与环境问题。基于改进产出密度模型，运用地统计和空间计量模型分析长三角城市2015~2017年雾霾污染空间格局和影响因素。研究发现：（1）雾霾污染存在季节性变化特征并且各城市雾霾污染状况逐渐好转。（2）雾霾污染具有显著的局域集聚特征和空间异质性，杭州、宁波和台州呈现低－低集聚特征，而滁州、扬州、镇江和泰州为高－高集聚型，污染区域集中于省界处，污染程度自西北向东南逐渐降低。雾霾污染存在显著的城际空间正相关和空间溢出效应，周边城市雾霾污染对本地区会产生负影响。（3）长三角城市人口集聚、研发投入、产业结构、工业烟粉尘排放及城市建设均对雾霾污染产生正向影响，对外开放、能源消耗以及降水等因素对雾霾污染产生负向影响；雾霾污染与经济增长之间不存在库兹涅茨曲线关系。经济集聚通过优化生产要素的空间分布与组合、共享治污基础设施等，形成雾霾污染抑制作用。     

中国东部地区农业环境-经济系统耦合度研究

东部地区农业污染已成为我国最为严重的环境问题之一,该研究对于推进与环境相协调的区域可持续发展实践、"建设美丽乡村"具有战略指导意义。首先建构了农业环境-经济系统耦合模型及耦合度评价类型;然后基于环境压力水平、强度等方面农业污染风险评价指标,以及农业经济水平、强度等方面农业经济系统评价指标,运用因子分析法实证研究东部地区农业环境-经济系统耦合及其空间格局。东部地区农业环境-经济耦合空间发展不平衡,大致可划分为5大类型区,农业污染风险高且环境-经济耦合度较差的地区主要在冀北、冀南地区,鲁西北、鲁南地区,苏北地区、闽南地区及粤西地区等,这可为具有地域特色的农业环境-经济协调发展提供决策依据。     

环境财税政策的治污效应研究——基于区域和门槛效应视角

首先参照投入—产出比,利用环保财政投入占GDP比重与环境污染综合指数之比对各区域环境财政政策治污效应系数进行测算,按系数值域把中国30个省(市)分成两个区域,区域1包括北京、甘肃、贵州等19个省市,区域2包括上海、浙江、福建等11个省市。其次分析环境财政政策、环境税收政策和中国式环境分权的治污效应并分区检验,最后对中国式环境分权和经济发展水平的门槛效应进行实证检验。结果表明:环境财政政策治污效应显著,区域1财政政策取得了更好的治污效果,中国目前车船税、城市维护建设税、土地使用税、耕地占用税、资源税及排污费等"近似"环境税种总体治污效应不显著,中国式环境分权与污染物排放显著正相关,中国式环境分权和经济发展水平对财政政策的治污效应具有显著的门槛效应,当中国式环境分权度低于-0.164、经济发展水平低于4.174时,环境财政政策具有更好的治污效果。样本期内以中国式环境分权为门槛变量时,有安徽、广西等15%的观测值位于低门槛区域,以经济发展水平为门槛变量时,有贵州、云南等10%的观测值位于低门槛区域。中国目前的能源消费结构和工业结构是加剧环境污染的重要原因,城镇化和对外开放在一定程度上助推了高污染和高排放。鉴于此应加大环境保护财政支出,提升环保财政支出占GDP的比重,单独开征环境保护税种,中央政府适度地环境集权,全面提升环境质量。     

Density of Scots pine undergrowth after ground fires in a zone of industrial air pollution

The effects of two exogenous factors, ground fires and industrial air pollution, on natural regeneration of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) cenopopulations have been studied in the Transural region. It has been found that an increased level of air pollution leads to a decrease in the abundance and occurrence frequency of pine undergrowth; as the intensity of ground fire increases, these parameters of the postfire generation of undergrowth increase as well, especially in background areas. As shown by two-way ANOVA, either of these factors and their interaction have a significant effect on the density of pine undergrowth, with this effect being stronger in the case of ground fires.     

Long-term variations of folic acid concentrations in the Northern Adriatic

Folic acid (FA), which belongs to B-group vitamins has recently been recognized as possible nutrient for some phytoplankton species (a diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum). The beneficial role of FA in human health is widely documented. In some countries food fortification with FA has already become mandatory. FA is also used under commercial name of Dosfolat for the treatment of industrial and domestic wastewaters. This is an exploratory study on seasonal and depth variability of FA concentrations in the Northern Adriatic Sea (station 101-max depth 30 m, under the Po River influence). Seawater samples were analysed in the period from February 1998 to February 2003 based on monthly determinations. Those preliminary findings showed that in the upper layer (10 m) FA concentrations were in the range from 0.1 to 28 nM. In the lower layer (20-30 m) FA concentrations were in the range from 0.1 to 12 nM. It was found that phytoplankton and microorganisms which are responsible for the production of FA in the Northern Adriatic (Station 101) were situated at the depth from 5 to 10 m. The observed water column and seasonal distributions depended on a sensitive balance between the production and the consumption of FA.     

工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响

本文从生产要素投入端将环境污染引至索洛增长模型,理论考察工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响机制,基于1999—2014年我国30个省份的面板数据,以SO_2排放量作为环境污染水平的代理变量,采用面板平滑迁移回归(PSTR)模型检验全国及分区域工业经济结构、经济增长对环境污染的非线性影响效应及区域差异性。研究结果表明:随着工业化进程的不断加快,工业产出及污染排放均呈现不断上升的趋势,但由于资本边际收益递减规律使得这种增长趋势逐渐减弱,最终导致经济增长和环境污染增长趋于稳态,当污染排放增长率降低为负时,经济增长对环境污染的影响作用由正向转变为负向。实证表明我国工业经济结构、经济增长与SO_2排放具有显著的产出水平门槛效应,随着经济产出水平由低区制平滑的过渡到高区制,经济增长对SO_2排放的影响由正向促进作用转变为负向减排效应,但工业经济结构对SO_2排放呈现逐渐增强正向促进作用,可见工业经济结构、经济增长对SO_2排放具有显著的非线性影响。此外,研究发现工业经济结构、经济增长对SO_2排放的非线性影响存在显著的区域差异性,东部地区经济增长与SO_2排放呈现显著的倒"U"型曲线关系,而在中西部地区表现出逐渐增强的促进作用,中部地区的工业经济结构对SO_2排放的促进作用最大,西部其次,东部最弱,研究还表明,减排技术水平以及环境治理投资增加对SO_2污染排放具有遏制作用,能源投资的增加加速了SO_2的排放。在未来经济发展中,应摒弃传统"高投入、高消耗"的工业化模式,政府应实施创新管理,完善环境保护立法,鼓励企业发展环境污染治理方面的技术,避免以环境容量过渡为代价,追求工业经济高质量、可持续发展模式。     

中国地区间跨界污染治理的两阶段多边补偿机制研究

近年来,以雾霾、河流污染等为代表的跨界污染问题严重影响了我国经济社会的可持续协调发展。本文将跨界污染治理视为典型的地区间外溢性公共品,从公共经济学的视角出发,分析了我国地区间跨界污染治理的种种困境,并通过构建两阶段多边博弈模型,探讨了补偿机制的可行性。本文首先构建了一个跨地区的污染模型,通过中央政府干预或不干预的博弈分析发现,当污染存在地区内部及跨地区的外溢性时,如果中央政府不介入而由企业自行设定产出水平,那么企业的污染排放水平将超过社会有效率的水平。在此基础上,本文进一步构建了一个两阶段多边补偿机制博弈模型,即由中央政府设计一个地区内部企业与居民之间以及跨地区之间的补偿机制,来解决以上的无效性问题。结果显示,当企业支付的补偿金额取决于居民设定的补偿系数,而居民得到的补偿金额又取决于企业设定的补偿系数时,相互影响的博弈关系使得企业和居民从自身的利益出发,将补偿系数设定在企业污染对于居民边际损害的水平,从而企业生产水平会达到有效状态,两阶段多边补偿机制实现了有效的污染排放。本文在庇古税思想的基础上,通过放松庇古税对外部性相关信息的强假设,构建了一个两阶段多边补偿机制,即由企业缴纳庇古税后,中央将征收的庇古税补偿给居民,这样不仅内部化了企业污染给居民造成的负外部性,还进一步平衡了地区间的跨界污染治理问题。     

中国工业绿化度测算及影响因素研究

工业生产是现代物质财富的主要来源,同时也是带来环境污染的重要产业。本文对中国工业增长的绿化度进行了考察。首先采用层次分析法测度2005-2009年中国各地区环境污染综合指数,结果表明2005-2009年这5年间全国大多数地区环境污染指数都有不同程度上涨,平均环境污染指数从2005年的0.208上涨到2009年的0.267,就地区差异而言,环境污染指数呈现东高西低的特征,东部地区环境污染指数平均为0.340,而中部地区和西部地区分别为0.241和0.154,这与东部地区工业较为发达存在密切关系,也印证了中国经济发展仍存在较为明显的粗放式特征;其次,应用DEA方法在综合考虑环境污染和能源消耗问题的基础上测度2005-2009年中国各地区工业增长绿化度,结果表明东部地区工业绿化度明显优于中西部地区,东部地区工业绿化度平均为0.689,远高于中部地区的0.435和西部地区的0.496,而且,"十一五"以来,东部地区工业绿化度上升趋势明显,说明东部地区工业增长正在积极向绿色转型;论文还应用TOBIT回归分析法对影响中国工业绿化度的因素进行分析,研究表明技术进步、结构升级、经济开放都会对工业绿化度产生积极的效应。因此,为促进工业绿色增长中国需要进一步为技术的研发、扩散搭建顺畅的渠道;积极推动产业融合,获得协同收益;有效吸引清洁外资,开展绿色生产。     

Pollutants in particulate and gaseous fractions of ambient air interfere with multiple signaling pathways in vitro

Traditionally, contamination of air has been evaluated primarily by chemical analyses of indicator contaminants and these studies have focused mainly on compounds associated with particulates. Some reports have shown that air contaminants can produce specific biological effects such as toxicity mediated by the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) or modulation of the endocrine system. This study assessed the dioxin-like toxicity, anti-/estrogenicity, anti-/androgenicity and anti-/retinoic activity of both the particulate and gas phase fractions of air in two regions with different types of pollution sources and a background locality situated in an agricultural area of Central Europe. The first region (A) is known to be significantly contaminated by organochlorine pesticides and chemical industry. The other region (B) has been polluted by historical releases of PCBs, but the major current sources of contamination are probably combustion sources from local traffic and heating. Samples of both particle and gas fractions produced dioxin-like (AhR-mediated) activity, anti-estrogenic and antiandrogenic effects, but none had any effect on retinoid signaling. AhR-mediated activities were observed in all samples and the TEQ values were comparable in both fractions in region A, but significantly greater in the particulate fraction in region B. The greater AhR-mediated activity corresponded to a greater coincident antiestrogenicity of both phases in region B. Our study is the first report of antiestrogenicity and antiandrogenicity in ambient air. Anti-androgenicity was observed in the gas phase of all regions, while in the particulate phase only in one region due to the specific type of pollution in that area. Even though based on concentrations of individual compounds, except for the OCPs, the level of contamination of the two regions was similar, there were strong differences in responses in the bioassays between the two regions. Moreover, AhR-mediated activity and antiestrogenic potencies were greater in region B, where the pollution level according to the chemical analysis was similar or less than in the other region, which indicates the presence of other atmospheric pollutants with specific effects. The results document the advantage and utility of the simultaneous use of bioassays and chemical analysis in risk assessment of complex environmental samples.     

Exploring the effect of producer services and manufacturing industrial co-agglomeration on the ecological environment pollution control in China

Based on the perspective of government-dominated and market-driven industrial co-agglomeration mode, the effect of producer services and manufacturing industrial co-agglomeration on the ecological environment pollution control is explored by using spatial Durbin model, and the mediating effect of technological innovation is further tested. The results show that: (1) At the national level, the government-dominated industrial co-agglomeration only significantly promotes the local ecological environment pollution control, while the market-driven industrial co-agglomeration also can promote the ecological environment pollution control in the surrounding region through its spatial spillover effect. Moreover, there is a significant inverted “U-shaped” curve relationship between the economic development level and ecological environment pollution. Additionally, the environment regulation is also conducive to promoting the ecological environment pollution control, while the industrial structure and foreign direct investment will lead to more serious ecological environment pollution; (2) In the east region, the government-dominated and market-driven industrial co-agglomeration can promote the ecological environment pollution control in the local and surrounding regions, and the promotion effect and spatial spillover effect of market-driven industrial co-agglomeration are greater. However, in the central and west regions, the government-dominated industrial co-agglomeration and market-driven industrial co-agglomeration only promote the local ecological environment pollution control. (3) Technological innovation has partial mediating effect in the impact of government-dominated and market-driven industrial co-agglomeration on the ecological environment pollution control, namely that the government-dominated and market-driven industrial co-agglomeration not only can directly promote the ecological environment pollution control, but also can indirectly promote the ecological environment pollution control through the mediating effect of technological innovation.

     

Trends of interpopulation variation in meristic characters of seismosensory canals on the head of roach, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rutilus rutilus</Emphasis> (L.), in anthropogenically polluted environments

Patterns in the quantitative manifestation of meristic characters of seismosensory canals on the head of roach have been studied in fish from populations inhabiting ten river and pond water areas of the Udmurt Republic exposed to different kinds and levels of anthropogenic pollution. Trends of interpopulation variation in the average numbers of pores in some seismosensory canals have been revealed, and their statistical relationship with the level of pollution has been evaluated.     

德清县水环境压力与胁迫类型区划分

在第一次地理国情普查统计数据与调研数据的支持下,采取小流域划分与圩区划分相结合的方法,对德清县进行水环境空间评价单元划分。选用畜禽养殖污水排放量、重点企业污水排放量、农药化肥入河量、城镇与乡村生活污水排放量等5个指标,运用GIS空间分析与统计分析方法进行水污染负荷综合分析,并进行压力类型划分。尝试利用水环境功能区划及生态环境功能区划的既有成果对各空间评价单元进行水环境目标类型区划分,并将水环境目标类型与其水环境压力类型进行空间匹配分析,共划分为7种水环境胁迫类型区。此外,对各胁迫类型区的主要村域分布进行了识别。     

环鄱阳湖区农业面源污染TN/TP时空变化与分布特征

以鄱阳湖区周边12县市为研究区域，以氮、磷2种污染物为研究对象，以土地利用、畜禽以及农业人口为三大主要营养源，运用输出系数模型对环鄱阳湖区1997~2007年的面源污染现状负荷进行估算，结果表明TP/TN都呈现平稳上升的趋势，且面源污染高负荷区主要集中在南昌县、新建县和南昌市辖地区；预测2011~2020年TN/TP的变化，结果表明研究区域总磷总氮均有明显增长趋势，环鄱阳湖区年平均TN/TP相对现状年平均增长率为1746%和1602%。面源污染负荷的三大营养源贡献中畜禽输出负荷的贡献率随时间的推移有明显增加的趋势，农业人口和土地利用的贡献率有下降的趋势，揭示了环鄱阳湖地区禽畜污染将是农业面源污染的主要污染源。并借助GIS工具分析了TN/TP在环湖各地区的分布特征，指出了面源污染控制的重点工作区域     

Chernov’s compensation principle and the effect of rodent community completeness on the variability of bank vole (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clethrionomys glareolus</Emphasis>) population in the Middle Urals

Using methods of geometric morphometrics, significant differences have been revealed in manifestations of variability and morphological disparity in allochronous samples from the population of model species, the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus Schreb. 1780), in the Middle Urals at different levels of rodent community (taxocene) completeness in different years. Two states of the taxocene—oligospecific (two species) and polyspecific (five species)—and the level of relative abundance of bank voles (high or low) have been taken into account. Comparative analysis of variation in the size and shape of the mandible in same-aged (late-summer) young of the year has shown that significant morphogenetic differences exist between the animals sampled from the rodent taxocene at its different states (oligospecific and polyspecific) and, to a lesser extent, at high and low levels of abundance. The level of variation and the parameter of intragroup morphological disparity (MNND) in the mandible shape reach a maximum when the community has a reduced composition and decrease to a minimum when its composition is complete (i.e., in the oligo- and polyspecific taxocene). A parallelism is observed in the manifestation of morphofunctional changes of the mandible in male and female voles under conditions when the taxocene has high abundance and oligospecific composition or low abundance but polyspecific composition. Different morphogenetic responses of the population to oligo- and polyspecific composition of the community are considered as a compensatory increase of morphological disparity in the dominant species (the bank vole) under conditions of incomplete composition of the taxocene and low population density, in accordance with Chernov’s ecological compensation principle.     

长株潭地区经济增长与工业污染变迁的实证研究

根据长株潭地区1990~2006年经济与工业污染数据,分析了经济发展与环境污染的相互关系,建立了二者之间的计量模型。研究表明：作为一个重化工业城市群,长株潭自20世纪90年代以来,在经济高速发展的情况下,其环境恶化程度逐步得到局部控制。其中,长沙市部分环境指标与人均GDP演替轨迹呈现显著的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征;而株洲市和湘潭市工业污染排放量与人均GDP呈“U”形特征,即随着经济的增长,环境污染先是有一定程度的缓解,但随即有较大幅度的反弹。为了进一步促进长株潭地区经济与环境的协调发展,三地政府一方面应采取措施加快产业结构调整和优化工业布局,另一方面,还应尝试实施"排污权交易"和"受益者支付"原则等积极的环保管理手段和政策。     

基于ANN的土壤重金属分布和污染评价研究

农田土壤重金属污染与备受关注的农产品安全问题有密切联系,因此对其进行研究意义重大。以江苏省南通市为研究区,利用采样点实测数据,借助神经网络模型(ANN)并结合3S技术对问题进行研究,从而对土壤重金属的空间动态分布进行描述,并对各个空间位点重金属的污染状况进行评价。结果表明,神经网络模型能够智能地学习各个样点的空间位置与该点各重金属含量之间的映射关系和预先设计好的分类评价模式,并能够稳健地对各个空间插值点处的重金属含量和各个位点的重金属污染状况进行预测和评价。结论显示,南通市大部分农田土壤重金属污染较轻,但也存在局部地区的严重污染。结论与实际情况相符,表明神经网络模型可以为农田土壤重金属的研究提供一个新的思路和方法。     

三峡库区面源污染现状与对策研究

三峡库区生态环境脆弱，坡耕地垂直分布明显，耕地利用方式不合理，库区耕地环境质量较差。水土流失严重。库区沿江工厂星落棋布，落后的生产工艺和小规模生产，使大量废水没经处理直接排放到库区各大河流。虽然目前长江流域水体的自净作用能将污水稀释，但随着三峡大坝的正式蓄水，部分区域水体污染将不可避免。通过对库区部分区域水体近几年的连续监测，水体总P、非离子氨、CODcr等指标有恶化趋势。库区土壤重金属监测结果表明，土壤重金属Cd、As含量明显增加，并且远大于当地土壤背景值。库区农畜产品蔬菜、茶叶、鱼Pb、Cd超标较严重。土壤N、P流失率较高。有效防止库区面源污染的对策一方面是控制工业点源、线源污染造成的面源污染．另一方面是控制农业自身造成的面源污染。主要措施有：加强库区环境管理和环保宣传力度；建立沿江生物隔离带；加强土地管理，加大农业工程投入，合理利用土地；大力提倡水土保持耕作法；扩大森林覆盖率，建立坡地立体复合农业生态系统：建立面源污染预警系统。     

Morphogenetic Effects of Drought and Nonselective Elimination in Population of Bank Vole (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Clethrionomys glareolus</Emphasis>) in Southern Taiga Subzone

Methods of geometric morphometrics have been used to estimate the influence ratio of nonselective elimination and drought factors on variation in the shape and size of the mandible in the population of bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus Schreb.) in the southern taiga subzone. Nonselective elimination of rodent populations for medical and sanitary purposes was carried out in a felling site located in a focus of hemorrhagic fever, in the spring of a climatically normal year and of a dry year. The summer samples of mature young of the year from control bank vole colonies and impact colonies (i.e., recovered after deratization) in adjacent years have been compared. The results show that drought, nonselective elimination, and the interaction of these factors have significant effects on the size and shape of the mandible. Changes in its shape under drought conditions are largely due to allometry. Morphogenetic effects of nonselective elimination are highly repeatable between climatically different years. A significantly higher level of within-group morphological disparity (MNND) of the undisturbed control cenopopulation in a dry year has been revealed, which indirectly indicates a stronger destabilization of morphogenesis upon exposure to the autecological factor. Every ecological factor contributes to the development of specific configurations of the mandible; i.e., it induces certain changes in morphogenesis in response to aut- and synecological effects and their combination.     

Changes in the size structure of carabid communities in forest ecosystems under technogenic transformation

The body size structure of carabid communities has been analyzed based on the 2009 and 2013 collections (with the use of pitfall traps) performed at 10 sites of a spruce–fir forest along the gradient of pollution with emissions from the Middle Ural Copper Smelter. A reduction in the unweighted mean body size of carabid individuals has been shown, as well as the heterogeneity of body sizes in the community (Gini coefficient) of the extremely polluted territory. It has been revealed that the weighted mean body size of individuals and the Lorentz asymmetry coefficient are not dependent on the level of pollution. Differences between the communities of carabids in the background and polluted territories are associated with the smaller number of large-sized species, while the similarity is explained by the dominance of medium- and small-sized species at all sites. The high interannual variability has been observed in the ratio of size groups of the analyzed communities at the background and moderate levels of pollution.     

Spatial correlation network and population mobility effect of regional haze pollution: empirical evidence from Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in China

Based on relevant data from 2014 to 2018, we constructed a spatial network of haze pollution in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region by using a modified gravity model, explored the network structure characteristics and influencing factors of urban agglomeration with the SNA and the QAP method, and discussed the population mobility effect brought by haze pollution. The results showed that the PRD region has spatial correlation in terms of haze pollution. Guangzhou was in the central position of the spatial network, yet Shenzhen and Foshan played a connecting role in the network. Economic development, urbanization, and environmental protection had significant positive impacts on the haze pollution spatial network. The results of the double-threshold regression showed that the city’s status in the haze pollution network represented by centrality had a positive impact on population mobility.