Foodgrain disposals as early warning famine signals: A case from Burkina Faso*

Recent research suggests that monitoring key events in social, economic, cultural and political systems may provide more timely, frequent, and reliable warnings of impending famine than monitoring physical processes alone. But empirical data on early warning distress signals in these arenas are slim. Based on anthropological investigations in a southern Volta Noire community of Burkina Faso (formerly Upper Volta) during the drought of 1983–1984, this paper outlines a variety of possible early warning signals in disposal systems for staple foodgrains - the nutritional “bottom line” for farmers and herders in the West African savannah. Pre-famine distress signals in five broad categories are discussed: changes in marketing patterns, non-market exchanges, dietary practices, utilization of agricultural and pastoral labour, and ideological and sociopolitical behaviours. Data consist of both quantitative and qualitative comparisons of cereal disposals in these categories between 1983 and preceding years.     

Entitlements and the Wollo Famine of 1982–1985

The traglic recent events in Ethiopia and other parts of Africa have again foccussed attention on the different anaytical approaches to the problems iof famine. Perhaps the most important analytical contribution to this field has been Sen's "entitlements approach." One of the case studies Sen used to articulate this approach was of the 1972–1973 famine in Wollo Province, Ethiopia. This article provides a provisional assessment of the famine process in the Wollo during 1982–1985 to set against the analysis by Sen of the earlier famine. Some striking contrasts are revealed.     

The role of the individual administrator in famine relief: Three case studies

A series of hypotheses on the role of the individual administrator in famine relief are proposed and three are examined with respect to case studies of famines in India (1896 and 1906–1907), Uganda (1908) and Lombok (1940). While the evidence is not conclusive, the focus upon the role of the individual administrator offers additional insights into the compexities of official response to famines.     

Food acquisition during the African drought of 1983–1984: A study of Kenyan herders

In 1983 and 1984, drought spread across the northern rangelands of Kenya and herders in lowland Samburu lost substantial portions of their livestock. Food aid arrived when 50 to 75% of the cattle had already died, and after poorer pastoralists were hungry enough to sell their remaining productive animals. No pastoralists died of the immediate effects of the drought, but many were so impoverished that their longer-term prospects for remaining as herders look dim.
This essay discusses the timing and content of famine relief as it applies both to Samburu and other food-stressed areas. It focuses on the process of food acquisition during the northern Kenyan drought itself. The more "indigenous" food strategies of herding, hunting and gathering offered limited benefits. Equally, however, commercial channels for procuring food proved inadequate. Herders could not reliably sell animals to obtain cash for purchased food, nor were the grain and sugar staples always available even when cash was on hand. Lacking means to provide for themselves, Samburu came to depend on varied kinds of handouts.     

Peasant survival strategies in ethiopia1

This paper focuses on peasant farmers in Ethiopia, and their behaviour as serious famine sets in. In many of the last seventeen years the crop yields on rain-fed plots in drought-prone areas have failed to meet the requirements of the peasant farmers and their families. Significant numbers have received food aid either at distribution points or in the shelters which developed in 1973 and 1984. Seeking food relief from external sources, however, is the last resort of peasants who have managed their dwindling resources for months, if not years, in order to survive.     

The Prevention and Mitigation of Famine: Policy Lessons from Botswana and Sudan

Botswana and Sudan experienced consecutive years of drought in the 1980s. Sudan faced a large decline in food entitlement and nutritional deterioration, which translated into famine in 1984/85. Botswana, on the other hand, nearly compensated income losses and averted nutritional deterioration and famine-related deaths. There are important lessons to learn from the famine prevention experience of Botswana. Its strategy for dealing with drought and famine combines policies of steady economic growth with supplementary poverty alleviation and drought relief programs. To provide continuity and stabilization of market operations in times of distress, the country channels sufficient food through market chains, provides price support to preempt market collapse and augments the income of consumers through public income transfer programs to prevent demand failure. In addition, it maintains a responsive and accountable political system and a decentralized participatory administrative structure. While Sudan should develop policies that are compatible with its own environment, it is crucial that it recognizes the critical role of public action in promoting growth, alleviating poverty, and providing timely relief responses in times of anticipated growth failure.     

Archetypes of famine and response

Famines have long been characterised by rapidly shifting dynamics: sudden price spirals, sharp increases in mortality, the media frenzy that often accompanies such spikes, the swift scaling up of aid flows, and a subsequent decline in interest. In arguing that these aspects of famine have been largely ignored in recent years due to attention to the famine process', this paper attempts to make these dynamics more explicit by applying systems thinking. It uses standard archetypes of systems thinking to explain six situations—watch, price spiral, aid magnet, media frenzy, overshoot, and peaks—that are present in many famine contexts. It illustrates their application with examples from crises in Ethiopia, Malawi, Niger, and Sudan. The paper contends that the systems approach offers a tool for analysing the larger patterns in famines and for pinpointing the most appropriate responses to them, based on an awareness of the dynamics of the crises.     

An Examination of the 1990-91 Famine in Sudan

Shortly before and during the harvest of 1990, a series of warnings were issued by concerned international and UN agencies that Sudan would experience a very poor harvest followed by an acute food shortage over the period 1990-91. The 1990 harvest was estimated to be similar to that obtained in 1984. After the very poor harvest in 1984, Sudan experienced a major famine during which deaths may have numbered in the hundreds of thousands. There were fears that this experience might be repeated in 1990 - 91. By the time of the subsequent 1991 harvest, it was clear to all that a severe food crisis had been experienced. There were severe shortages of water and food and very high malnutrition rates of children were noted by UNICEF across a wide range of areas. Despite these adverse indications, starvation deaths were probably numbered in thousands, rather than hundreds of thousands. Famine mortality, which may include deaths from famine associated disease, was similarly low. The initial predictions, it now seems, may have over-estimated famine mortality almost one hundred times. Several potential explanations of the over-estimate are examined. These include prediction errors, government and donor responses to the drought such as food aid and immunization, and traditional community and household level coping strategies in times of food shortage.     

Famine early warning systems and the use of socio-economic data

Famine early warning systems using socio-economic data suffer from several problems. One is that they cannot, and do not attempt to, distinguish between qualitatively different kinds of famine. The second is that they cannot predict these either accurately or early enough. This is because all the socio-economic indicators produce both false positives and false negatives, the indicators themselves are "late" and because interpretation of the data is complex and time-consuming. The third problem is that within the context of a famine that is occurring, these indicators cannot predict excess mortality. The argument is illustrated with examples from the 1984–5 famine in Darfur, Sudan.     

The persian famine of 1870-1872: prices and politics

By whatever definitions one cares to classify food shortages and deaths resulting from lack of food, there can be little semantic difficulty in recognising a catastrophic famine in Persia (Iran) in the early 1870s. This paper briefly examines the famine in its natural, political and socio-economic context. Fluctuations in prices and in the supply of essential commodities responded primarily to weather conditions, but this response was exaggerated and in some instances triggered directly by actions in the political and economic sphere.     

The African food crisis of 1982-1986*

The crisis cannot be attributed to any one cause, but rather it was the product of a number of interacting factors whose precise combination varied between countries. Drought, internal political and economic factors and an unfavourable external economic environment were significant contributory factors. Civil war and externally financed insurgency were primarily responsible for propelling a food crisis into a famine in four out of the six worst affected countries. Within the literature, there is a tendency for writers to emphasize the relative contribution of factors within their own disciplines. So far the literature on the responses, both within country and internationally, is comprised of eye witness accounts by journalists and evaluations by aid agencies of their performance. The international response by governments and the public was massive and unprecedented, but the response by governments, indigenous NGO's and the public within affected countries is often overlooked by the journalistic literature. Generalizations about "the African food crisis" have obscured the considerable diversity amongst countries. This is well illustrated by the experiences of Ethiopia, Kenya and Botswana. This diversity indicates the biased perspectives that arise from focussing on the extreme famines, as in Ethiopia. Research priorities should include studies of systems that coped during the crisis, historical analysis of the crisis, the way early warning information is processed within bureaucratic institutions, environmental degradation and fully integrated analysis of food production and consumption systems.     

Food as an instrument of war in contemporary african famines: a review of the evidence

Famine is conventionally portrayed as a natural disaster expressed in terms of food scarcity and culminating in starvation. This view has attracted criticism in recent years as the political, legal and social dimensions of famine have become more clearly understood. This paper draws upon these criticisms to understand the particular conditions of famine creation in conflict situations. Following an examination of six contemporary African famines, it is suggested that the use of food as a weapon of war by omission, commission and provision has contributed to the creation of famine in recent decades. Despite the optimism for peace engendered by the demise of the Cold War, the momentum for conflict would seem to be sustained by internal factors, including economic and environmental decline, political instability and ethnic rivalry. Within these conflicts, the strategic importance of food is likely to remain central. This study highlights the need to link concerns with food security and public health to those of development, human rights and international relations.     

Monitoring and responding to famine: lessons from the 1984 - 85 food crisis in kenya

The geographic and temporal scale of institutional responses to food crises suggests three levels of food information or famine early warning system: a seasonal national food balance, baseline data on household food poverty and estimates of vulnerability to climatic and economic variations, and targeted interventions based on individual entitlements and food deprivation. Stimulating the demand for food information, beyond the need to forecast famines, is a crucial factor in the adoption of improved monitoring systems. Issues in the design of food information systems are illustrated by the experience in Kenya in 1984–85. The government of Kenya responded to the 1984 drought and ensuing food crisis to prevent widespread famine, largely through timely commercial imports of yellow maize. Although qualified by the nature of the drought and Kenya's economic development, this success story emphasises the need to improve food information systems.     

The resilience of households to famine in el fasher, Sudan, 1982-89

This paper examines issues related to famine resilience and describes the results of a survey of households who migrated from famine affected rural communities in Northern Darfur to the provincial capital, El Fasher, in western Sudan. It reveals that asset wealth did not enhance household resilience to famine; rather, the data indicate that households who reportedly practiced more numerous survival strategies before migrating to El Fasher were on the whole able to stay longer in their villages before migrating. The data also suggest that some households might have been better able to endure the deteriorating rural conditions by participating in intra-communal practices of sharing resources. An additional issue influencing the timing of migration to El Fasher is previous familiarity with the economic opportunities in the provincial capital.     

Diagnosis of famine: a discursive contribution

This paper recommends the incorporation of an additional discursive dimension in famine diagnosis that draws on the number of reports referring to famine in the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)'s ReliefWeb database. Present‐day diagnostic tools already apply the principle of triangulation with multiple indicators; the addition of a discursive diagnostic dimension would enable even more refined analysis, allowing more forcefully for the incorporation of the aspect of change. The newly devised discursive famine indices are used both to identify famines—in Ethiopia (2000), Malawi (2002), and Somalia (2011)—and to analyse key socioeconomic determinants of famine. The study finds that income (or poverty) together with state fragility appear to be the major determinants of cross‐country variations in famine reporting, while political regimes do not appear to have any independent effect. The indices appear largely robust with regard to concerns about cross‐country, semantic, and temporal biases.     

Malnutrition and Poverty in the Early Stages of Famine: North Darfur, 1988–90

In this article we report findings on the relationship between malnutrition and poverty during a period of acute food insecurity in Darfur, Sudan. Children of rich and poor families were equally likely to be malnourished, which is explained in terms of people's responses to the threat of famine. This finding has important implications for targeting interventions in the early stages of famine. Appropriate interventions at the early stages of famine are livelihood and income support to the most vulnerable. The entitlement theory of famine causation assumes that the poor are most vulnerable, and become malnourished and die during famines. In this article we show that this assumption does not hold. Even though poverty is the root cause of malnutrition, it does not follow that anthropometric status can be used to target individual poor families, or even that targeting the poor is appropriate in famine situations.     

Historical Roots of Famine Relief Paradigms: Ideas on Dependency and Free Trade in India in the 1870s

The principles upon which famine policies are based have changed less than might be expected over the last century. This paper examines the origins of the Indian Famine Codes of the 1880s, which set the administrative and, it is argued, paradigmatic precedent for famine relief in 'developing' countries, managed by 'developed' ones. In particular, the still-current questions of avoiding the creation of dependency through over-generous aid and of relying on free-market solutions to the problems of food distribution are re-examined. Although both of these issues are difficult, it is suggested that strong emphasis on their importance has historically been based on wilful misinterpretation of complex situations. The result has been famine relief programmes which served the interests of 'relievers' (in this case the colonial state) more than the relieved. The nature of famine policy-making is thus reconsidered, with a call for greater appreciation of the role of influential individuals and hidden state agendas. These are as significant today as ever.     

Nutritional Assessments, Food Security and Famine

The widely held view that malnutrition is a late indicator of famine is challenged on the basis of evidence that people often deliberately reduce their food intake as an early response to inadequate food security. This broadens the possible interventions in response to high malnutrition rates to include measures to support livelihoods under threat of collapse. In the late stages of famine, social disruption and distress migration often result in a degraded health environment which may raise the threshold of nutritional status associated with an increased mortality risk. It is important to assess the underlying causes of malnutrition and the associated health risks. At present, the main objective of nutrition surveys is usually to obtain a reliable estimate of the prevalence of malnutrition among children under five years of age, with little analysis of the underlying causes of malnutrition. Experience from the 1984-85 famine in Darfur led to the development of an alternative approach to nutritional assessment which could be applicable elsewhere in Africa. The combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was particularly valuable as a means of gaining a wider and deeper understanding of the nature of the nutritional situation.     

地壳突发性放气与水灾行为关系的研究

本文阐述了由于１９９４年９月１４日台湾海峡７．３级地震孕震应力场作用而引起大面积突发性放气，导致１９９４年第２４号台风行为不规律的机制。地震本身可给人类造成灾难，而在某些条件下也可能引起其它灾难。     

The political economy of complex emergency and recovery in northern Ethiopia

During the 1980s Ethiopia experienced the effects of conflict, drought and famine on a scale far greater than many CPEs elsewhere. In May 1991, after the decisive defeat of the military dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam by the Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and after decades of civil war, drought and famine, Ethiopia faced the prospects of peace and of much needed development. This paper explores both Ethiopia's experience of conflict and humanitarian intervention in areas of Tigray held by the Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front (TPLF) during the 1980s, and its experience of post-conflict rehabilitation and reconstruction in the 1990s. It first deals with the roots of the conflicts within Ethiopia: political marginalisation, heavy state intervention and highly extractive relations between state and peasants, inappropriate and failed development policies, ethnic identity and the politicisation of ethnicity. The Mengistu regime's counter-insurgency measures are then contrasted with the policies and programmes of the TPLF, Ethiopia's most effective opposition movement and the leading element in the EPRDF, and its achievements in mobilising popular support: its establishment of democratically elected structures of local governance and its famine relief distribution programme.