Impacts of Changes in Precipitation Amount and Distribution on Water Resources Studied Using a Model Rainwater Harvesting System

Water supply reliability is expected to be affected by both precipitation amount and distribution changes under recent and future climate change. We compare historical (1951‐2010) changes in annual‐mean and annual‐maximum daily precipitation in the global set of station observations from Global Historical Climatology Network and climate models from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI‐MIP), and develop the study to 2011‐2099 for model projections under high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). We develop a simple rainwater harvesting system (RWHS) model and drive it with observational and modeled precipitation. We study the changes in mean and maximum precipitation along with changes in the reliability of the model RWHS as tools to assess the impact of changes in precipitation amount and distribution on reliability of precipitation‐fed water supplies. Results show faster increase in observed maximum precipitation (10.14% per K global warming) than mean precipitation (7.64% per K), and increased reliability of the model RWHS driven by observed precipitation by an average of 0.2% per decade. The ISI‐MIP models show even faster increase in maximum precipitation compared to mean precipitation. However, they imply decreases in mean reliability, for an average 0.15% per decade. Compared to observations, climate models underestimate the increasing trends in mean and maximum precipitation and show the opposite direction of change in reliability of a model water supply system.     

An Analysis of the Effects of Land Use and Land Cover on Flood Losses along the Gulf of Mexico Coast from 1999 to 2009

Major coastal flooding events over the last decade have led decision makers in the United States to favor structural engineering solutions as a means to protect vulnerable coastal communities from the adverse impacts of future storms. While a resistance‐based approach to flood mitigation involving large‐scale construction works may be a central component of a regional flood risk reduction strategy, it is equally important to consider the role of land use and land cover (LULC) patterns in protecting communities from floods. To date, little observational research has been conducted to quantify the effects of various LULC configurations on the amount of property damage occurring across coastal regions over time. In response, we statistically examine the impacts of LULC on observed flood damage across 2,692 watersheds bordering the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, we analyze statistical linear regression models to isolate the influence of multiple LULC categories on over 372,000 insured flood losses claimed under the National Flood Insurance Program per year from 2001 to 2008. Results indicate that percent increase in palustrine wetlands is the equivalent to, on average, a $13,975 reduction in insured flood losses per year, per watershed. These and other results provide important insights to policy makers on how protecting specific types of LULC can help reduce adverse impacts to local communities.     

STREAM TEMPERATURE INCREASES AND LAND USE IN A FORESTED OREGON WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The Salmon Creek Watershed drains 325 km² of forested terrain in the Cascade Mountains of western Oregon. Over a 30–year period (from 1955 to 1984) average daily maximum and minimum stream temperatures, calculated from the 10 warmest days of each year, have risen 6°C and 2°C, respectively. In contrast, a small decrease in maximum air temperatures was found over the same period. Regression analysis indicated a highly significant (p < 0.01) relationship between a cumulative index of forest harvesting and maximum stream temperatures. Maximum temperatures also tended to increase for several years following major peak flow events. The interaction between harvest activity (logging and road construction), changing forest and riparian management practices and the occurrence of natural hydrologic events (peak flows and associated mass soil movements) tend to obscure specific cause-and-effect relationships regarding long-term changes in maximum stream temperature.     

The Effects of Irrigation and Climate on the High Plains Aquifer: A County‐Level Econometric Analysis

The High Plains Aquifer (HPA) underlies parts of eight states and 208 counties in the central area of the United States (U.S.). This region produces more than 9% of U.S. crops sales and relies on the aquifer for irrigation. However, these withdrawals have diminished the stock of water in the aquifer. In this paper, we investigate the aggregate county‐level effect on the HPA of groundwater withdrawal for irrigation, of climate variables, and of energy price changes. We merge economic theory and hydrological characteristics to jointly estimate equations describing irrigation behavior and a generalized water balance equation for the HPA. Our simple water balance model predicts, at average values for irrigation and precipitation, an HPA‐wide average decrease in the groundwater table of 0.47 feet per year, compared to 0.48 feet per year observed on average across the HPA during this 1985–2005 period. The observed distribution and predicted change across counties is in the (?3.22, 1.59) and (?2.24, 0.60) feet per year range, respectively. The estimated impact of irrigation is to decrease the water table by an average of 1.24 feet per year, whereas rainfall recharges the level by an average of 0.76 feet per year. Relative to the past several decades, if groundwater use is unconstrained, groundwater depletion would increase 50% in a scenario where precipitation falls by 25% and the number of degree days above 36°C doubles. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM 1956 TO 1996 ON THE WALNUT GULCH EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The climate of Southern Arizona is dominated by summer precipitation, which accounts for over 60 percent of the annual total. Summer and non‐summer precipitation data from the USDA‐ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed are analyzed to identify trends in precipitation characteristics from 1956 to 1996. During this period, annual precipitation increased. The annual precipitation increase can be attributed to an increase in precipitation during non‐summer months, and is paralleled by an increase in the proportion of annual precipitation contributed during non‐summer months. This finding is consistent with previously reported increases in non‐summer precipitation in the southwestern United States. Detailed event data were analyzed to provide insight into the characteristics of precipitation events during this time period. Precipitation event data were characterized based on the number of events, event precipitation amount, 30‐minute event intensity, and event duration. The trend in non‐summer precipitation appears to be a result of increased event frequency since the number of events increased during nonsummer months, although the average amount per event, average event intensity, and average event duration did not. During the summer “monsoon” season, the frequency of recorded precipitation events increased but the average precipitation amount per event decreased. Knowledge of precipitation trends and the characteristics of events that make up a precipitation time series is a critical first step in understanding and managing water resources in semiarid ecosystems.     

Estimating the Frequency and Extent of Overbank Flow of a Baseflow‐Dominated Stream Flowing through a Wetland

River floodplains provide critical habitat for a wide range of animal and plant species and reduce phosphorus and nitrogen loads in streams. It has been observed that baseflow‐dominated streams flowing through wetlands are commonly at or near bankfull and overflow their banks much more frequently than other streams. However, there is very little published quantitative support for this observation. The study focuses on a 1‐km reach of Black Earth Creek, a stream in the Midwestern United States (U.S.). We used one‐dimensional hydraulic modeling to estimate bankfull discharge at evenly spaced stream cross sections, and two‐dimensional modeling to quantitate the extent of wetland inundation as a function of discharge. We then used historical streamflow data from two U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations to quantitate the frequency of wetland inundation. For the with‐sediment case, the frequency of overbank conditions at the 38 cross sections in the wetland ranged from 3 to 85 days per year and averaged 43 days per year. Ten percent of the wetland was inundated for an average of 35 days per year. For the without‐sediment case, the frequency of overbank conditions ranged from 2.6 to 48 days per year and averaged 14 days per year. Also, 10% of the wetland was inundated for an average of 25 days per year. These unusually high rates of floodplain inundation are likely due in part to the very low stream gradient and shallow depths of overbank flow.     

Fishers,Farms, and Forests in Eastern North America

The fisher (Martes pennanti) has recently recovered from historic extirpations across much of its geographic range. There are at least five explanations for the recovery of the fisher, including changes in the amount of habitat, the suitability of habitat, trapping pressure, societal attitudes toward predators, and climate. We evaluated a recovering fisher population in Ontario to test two conditions we viewed as necessary to support the hypothesis that fisher populations have increased due to an increase in the amount of forested land. First, we tested whether the amount of forested land has increased. Second, we tested whether contemporary fisher abundance (and therefore habitat quality) was related to the amount of forest. Topographic maps showed that the proportion of forested land in the study area had increased by 1.9% per decade since 1934 and 3.3% per decade since 1959, likely as a result of land conversion from agricultural uses. Overall the proportion of the study area that was forested increased from 29% to 40% during 1934 to 1995. Census data from the region indicated that there had been a decline in the amount of land area being farmed during the last 50 years. Recent livetrapping data showed that fisher abundance was positively related to the proportion of landscapes that were forested. Based on our results, we could not reject the hypothesis that an increase in the amount of forested land has contributed to the recovery of fisher populations.     

A land management history for central Queensland,Australia as determined from land-holder questionnaire and aerial photography

Features of the land management history over a 125,755 km(2) area of central Queensland, Australia were determined from a variety of sources. A random sample of 205 site locations provided the basis for determining trends in land use. Trends in vegetation clearing were determined using sequential aerial photography for the sample sites, revealing a steady rate averaging nearly 1% of the region per annum over 41 years. This measure of sustained clearing over a large region is higher than recently published clearing rates from South America. Land types have been selectively cleared with over 90% of the Acacia on clay land type having been cleared. A land-holder questionnaire pertaining to the random sites yielded a response rate of 71% and provided information on vegetation clearing, ploughing, tree killing (ring-barking or tree poisoning), and fire frequency, season and intensity. The land-holder responses were compared with independent data sources where possible and revealed no mis-information. However, land-holders may have been marginally less likely to respond if the sample area had been cleared, although this effect was not statistically significant. Ploughing and tree killing are variable depending on land type, but the former has affected about 40% of the Acacia on clay land type, effectively eliminating options for natural regrowth. The proportion of decade-site combinations that were reported as having no fires increased from 22% in the 1950s to an average of 42% for subsequent decades, although the reporting of more than one fire per decade has been relatively constant through the study period. The reporting of at least one fire per decade varies from 46% for the Acacia on sand land type to 77% for the Eucalypt on sand land type for decade-site combinations. Fires are more intense when associated with clearing than in uncleared vegetation, but the proportion of cool and hot fires is relatively constant between land types in uncleared vegetation. Nearly all fires reported were either in spring or summer and this seasonally restricted regime is probably at variance with Aboriginal fire regimes. This study describes the rapid transformation of central Queensland. This has yielded substantially increased agricultural production but may also result in a range of negative impacts and these are discussed.     

Recent Ogallala Aquifer Region Drought Conditions as Observed by Terrestrial Water Storage Anomalies from GRACE

Recent severe drought events have occurred over the Ogallala Aquifer region (OAR) during the period 2011–2015, creating significant impacts on water resources and their use in regional environmental and economic systems. The changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS), as indicated by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), reveals a detailed picture of the temporal and spatial evolution of drought events. The observations by GRACE indicate the worst drought conditions occurred in September 2012, with an average TWS deficit of ~8 cm in the northern OAR and ~11 cm in the southern OAR, consistent with precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. Comparing changes in TWS with precipitation shows the TWS changes can be predominantly attributable to variations in precipitation. Power spectrum and squared wavelet coherence analysis indicate a significant correlation between TWS change and the El Nino‐Southern Oscillation, and the influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures on TWS change is much stronger in the southern OAR than the northern OAR. The results of this study illustrate the value of GRACE in not just the diagnosis of significant drought events, but also in possibly improving the predictive power of remote signals that are impacted by nonregional climatic events (El Nino), ultimately leading to improved water resource management applications on a regional scale. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Streamflow Responses to Climate Change: Analysis of Hydrologic Indicators in a New York City Water Supply Watershed

Recent works have indicated that climate change in the northeastern United States is already being observed in the form of shorter winters, higher annual average air temperature, and more frequent extreme heat and precipitation events. These changes could have profound effects on aquatic ecosystems, and the implications of such changes are less understood. The objective of this study was to examine how future changes in precipitation and temperature translate into changes in streamflow using a physically based semidistributed model, and subsequently how changes in streamflow could potentially impact stream ecology. Streamflow parameters were examined in a New York City water supply watershed for changes from model‐simulated baseline conditions to future climate scenarios (2081‐2100) for ecologically relevant factors of streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alterations tool. Results indicate that earlier snowmelt and reduced snowpack advance the timing and increase the magnitude of discharge in the winter and early spring (November‐March) and greatly decrease monthly streamflow later in the spring in April. Both the rise and fall rates of the hydrograph will increase resulting in increased flashiness and flow reversals primarily due to increased pulses during winter seasons. These shifts in timing of peak flows, changes in seasonal flow regimes, and changes in the magnitudes of low flow can all influence aquatic organisms and have the potential to impact stream ecology.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CHANGED CLIMATES ON HEAVY RAINFALL FREQUENCIES IN TIlE MIDWEST1

ABSTRACT: An important question posed by potential future shifts in climate relates to possible shifts in heavy rainfall events (intensity and/or frequency) used to design hydraulic structures. Heavy rain events were defined as those producing amounts having average recurrence intervals of two years or longer for a specific storm period at a given location. Estimates of such heavy rainfall shifts in the humid continental climate of the midwest were derived by using spatial and temporal analogs. Comparisons in areas of relatively warm, wet conditions were made with those having measurably cooler, drier average conditions. The spatial-temporal analogs provided comparative differences in precipitation and temperature similar to the magnitude of changes obtained from GCM estimates. Spatial analogs/analyses indicated 10 to 15 percent increases in the frequency distribution of rain events having recurrence intervals of 5 to 50 years. Two periods of notably drier and warmer conditions during the past 90 years revealed 5 to 15 percent decreases in the number of 2- to 10-year heavy rain events. The suppression percentages showed a strong tendency to increase with increasing recurrence interval from 2 to 10 years.     

Characterization of Drought in the South Atlantic,United States

Drought has been less extensively characterized in the humid South Atlantic compared to the arid western United States. Our objective was to characterize drought in the South Atlantic and to understand whether drought has become more severe in this region over time. Here we used monthly streamflow to characterize hydrological drought. Hydrological drought occurred when streamflow fell below the 20th percentile over three consecutive months and terminated once streamflow remained above the 20th percentile for three consecutive months. We characterized the frequency, duration, magnitude, and severity of events using the above definition. Significant changes in drought characteristics were tested with Mann‐Kendall over three periods: 1930‐2010, 1930‐1969, and 1970‐2010. We show that 71% of drought events were shorter than six months, while 7% were multiyear events. There was little evidence of trends in drought characteristics to support the claim of drought becoming more severe in the South Atlantic over the 20th Century. The one exception was a significant increase in the joint probability of nearby basins being simultaneously in drought conditions in the southern portion of the study area from 1970 to 2010. While drought characteristics have changed little through time, decreasing average streamflow in non drought periods coupled with increasing water demand provide the context within which recent multiyear drought events have produced significant stress on existing water infrastructure.     

SETTING AN EFFECTIVE TMDL: SEDIMENT LOADING AND EFFECTS OF SUSPENDED SEDIMENT ON FISR1

ABSTRACT: The Agricultural Drainage and Pesticide Transport model was used to examine the relationship between fish and suspended sediment in the context of a proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) in two agricultural watersheds in Minnesota. During a 50‐year simulation, Wells Creek, a third‐order cold water stream, had an estimated 1,164 events (i.e., one or more consecutive days of estimated sediment loading) and the Chippewa River, a fourth‐order warm water stream, had 906 events of measurable suspended sediment. Sublethal thresholds were exceeded for 970 events and lethal levels for 194 events for brown trout in Wells Creek, whereas adult nonsalmonids would have experienced sublethal levels for 923 events and lethal levels for 241 events. Sublethal levels were exceeded for 756 events and lethal thresholds were exceeded for 150 events in the Chippewa River. Nonsalmonids would have experienced 15 events of mortality between 0 and 20 percent in Wells Creek. In the Chippewa River, there were 35 events of mortality between 0 and 20 percent and one event in which mortality could have exceeded 20 percent. The Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has proposed listing stream reaches as being impaired for turbidity at 25 NTU, which is approximately 46 mg suspended sediment/1. We estimated that 46 mg/1 would be exceeded approximately 30 days in a year (d/yr) in both systems. A TMDL of 46 mg SS/1 may be too high to ensure that stream fishes are not negatively affected by suspended sediment. We recommend that an indicator incorporating the duration of exposure be applied.     

THE NEED FOR HIGH RESOLUTION TIME SERIES DATA TO CHARACTERIZE HAWAIIAN STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Streams in the Hawaiian Islands differ from many streams on the U.S. mainland presenting unique challenges to investigators attempting to characterize Hawaiian streams. Hawaiian streams are short; watersheds are small and steep; and rain events are usually short in duration but intense. As a result, most streams in Hawai'i are flashy. Time scales for storm hydrographs in Hawai'i are on the order of hours instead of days and flash flooding is a common hazard. To characterize the streams we were investigating, we found it necessary to obtain streamflow and water quality measurements at relatively short time intervals. While this resolution resulted in large sometimes onerous quantities of data, we would have otherwise missed certain phenomena, such as 60‐fold flow changes in 15 minutes or 30‐fold turbidity changes in five minutes. Even at five‐minute intervals, we found that attempts to predict TSS using a relationship obtained from in situ turbidity were not always satisfactory. Depending on the precision required, either higher resolution measurements or in vitro turbidity measurements of the TSS samples might be necessary. Finally, these high resolution measurements enabled us to observe other cyclical events that might have been missed if the measurement intervals were greater than one hour.     

Organizational change and marine environmental protection: The dredge spoil siting record

Dredge spoil siting activities are reviewed over a decade to determine whether organizational changes within the Corps of Engineers produced changes in the environmental performance of the agency. Over the period neither the total amount of marine and estuarine dredging nor the incidence of siting spoil inside the baseline declined. Therefore, internal organizational changes do not appear to have affected the above measures of agency performance concerning protection of the marine environment. Furthermore, at least 3% of the spoil is estimated to be highly contaminated. In recent years this magnitude of contaminated spoils has been equivalent to ocean-dumped sewage sludge.     

Visitor impact on backcountry campsites in the Great Smoky Mountains

Over the last decade the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP) has experienced a tremendous increase in visitation, especially in backcountry camping. In 1976 there were an estimated 117,500 backcountry visitor nights, with a peak of 16,865 visitor nights in April. The high use season extends from March to October. Visitation tends to be concentrated in certain sections of the park and at specific sites. The Appalachian Trail, which includes about 8 percent of the maintained trail mileage, carried 32 percent of the visitor nights in 1976.Campsite disturbance is also concentrated in specific sites and sections of the park. Maximum camping disturbance per km of maintained trail was 3,400 m² for the sites on the Appalachian Trail. Shelter sites have more visitation per site and more total disturbance per site than open campsites, but shelters tend to have less intensive disturbance, such as bare soil, because they concentrate trampling impacts. Visitation levels were strongly correlated with disturbances such as bare soil at open campsites. Visitation was significantly correlated to the number of firepits at shelter sites but not to other types of disturbance. Regressions indicate that for each additional visitor night at a site (annual average), one can expect an additional 9 m² of total disturbance and 1 m²of bare soil. The distance of a site from the nearest road was not significantly correlated with damage or visitation. Elevation was correlated to visitation levels, especially in the case of the shelters. More legal sites and large illegal sites are in mesic forest types. Illegal camping accounted for 10 percent of the total camping disturbance.The data imply that the suggested removal of shelters will require redistribution of visitor use or replacement developments, such as tent platforms, in order to mitigate damage. Zone camping is a possible alternative but presents difficulties because campers may concentrate in certain plant communities and topographic positions.     

Mine size and the structure of costs

The number of operating mines has fallen sharply for most mineral products, and the average size of mine risen, with the changes gathering momentum during the 1990s. The paper looks at trends in copper, zinc and gold, and then explores the relationship between size and unit costs in copper mining, separately for underground and open-pit mines, in order to ascertain the existence and importance of economies of scale. Changes in mine size have been accompanied by major technological and geographical shifts. There is only a weak relationship between the scale of mines and overall unit costs per tonne of copper produced. The paper discusses the data and explores some of the reasons.     

A MONTHLY TIME SERIES MODEL OF MUNICIPAL WATER DEMAND1

A multivariate time series model is formulated to study monthly variations in municipal water demand. The left hand side variable in the multivariate regression model is municipal water demand (gallons per connection per day) and the right hand side contains (explanatory) variables which include price (constant dollars), average temperature, total precipitation, and percentage of daylight hours. The application of the regression model to Salt Lake City Water Department data produced a high multiple correlation coefficient and F-statistic. The regression coefficients for the right hand side variables all have the appropriate sign. In an ex post forecast, the model accurately predicts monthly variations in municipal water demand. The proposed monthly multivariate model is not only found useful for forecasting water demand, but also useful for predicting and studying the impact of nonstructural management decisions such as the effect of price changes, peak load pricing methods, and other water conservation programs.     

Trends in Global Protected Area Governance,1992–2002

Governance refers to the interactions among structures, processes, and traditions that determine direction, how power is exercised, and how the views of citizens or stakeholders are incorporated into decision-making. Governance is now recognized as a critical aspect of effective conservation and is a prominent part of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s work program on protected areas. This study reports on a global survey to assess changes in governance of protected area systems between 1992 and 2002 based on responses from 41 countries. Results indicate that substantial changes have taken place with overall trends towards increased participation of more stakeholders, greater use of formal accountability mechanisms, and a wider range of participatory techniques. Many of these changes are supported by legislative and policy requirements and 75% of respondents reported changes in legislation over the past decade. Protected areas are becoming more influenced by global forces. A majority of respondents reported increased involvement of the private sector. Funding is coming from a broader range of sources, with a smaller proportion of income coming from government sources in 2002. Absolute funding amounts have increased, but almost two-thirds report that budgets fall short of requirements. Almost 90% of respondents felt that protected area governance had improved over the last decade; 67% felt that this had also led to improved management effectiveness. Respondents felt that secure funding, capacity building, and increased community involvement were the main governance needs for the future.     

Measuring the Social Recreation Per-Day Net Benefit of the Wildlife Amenities of a National Park: A Count-Data Travel-Cost Approach

In this article, we apply count-data travel-cost methods to a truncated sample of visitors to estimate the Peneda-Gerês National Park (PGNP) average consumer surplus (CS) for each day of visit. The measurement of recreation demand is highly specific because it is calculated by number of days of stay per visit. We therefore propose the application of altered truncated count-data models or truncated count-data models on grouped data to estimate a single, on-site individual recreation demand function, with the price (cost) of each recreation day per trip equal to out-of-pocket and time travel plus out-of-pocket and on-site time costs. We further check the sensitivity of coefficient estimations to alternative models and analyse the welfare measure precision by using the delta and simulation methods by Creel and Loomis. With simulated limits, CS is estimated to be €194 (range €116 to €448). This information is of use in the quest to improve government policy and PNPG management and conservation as well as promote nature-based tourism. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to measure the average recreation net benefits of each day of stay generated by a national park by using truncated altered and truncated grouped count-data travel-cost models based on observing the individual number of days of stay.