‘Learning by doing’: adaptive planning as a strategy to address uncertainty in planning

Adaptive management, an established method in natural resource and ecosystem management, has not been widely applied to landscape planning due to the lack of an operational method that addresses the role of uncertainty and standardized monitoring protocols and methods. A review of adaptive management literature and practices reveals several key concepts and principles for adaptive planning: (1) management actions are best understood and practiced as experiments; (2) several plans/experiments can be implemented simultaneously; (3) monitoring of management actions are key; and (4) adaptive management can be understood as ‘learning by doing’. The paper identifies various uncertainties in landscape planning as the major obstacles for the adoption of an adaptive approach. To address the uncertainty in landscape planning, an adaptive planning method is proposed where monitoring plays an integral role to reduce uncertainty. The proposed method is then applied to a conceptual test in water resource planning addressing abiotic-biotic-cultural resources. To operationalize adaptive planning, it is argued that professionals, stakeholders and researchers need to function in a genuinely transdisciplinary mode where all contribute to, and benefit from, decision making and the continuous generation of new knowledge.     

Sustainable Water Resources Management in a Conflict Resolution Framework1

Abstract: A decision support system for sustainable water resources management in a water conflict resolution framework is developed to identify and evaluate a range of acceptable alternatives for the Geum River Basin in Korea and to facilitate strategies that will result in sustainable water resource management. Working with stakeholders in a “shared vision modeling” framework, sustainable management strategies are created to illustrate system tradeoffs as well as long‐term system planning. A multi‐criterion decision‐making (MCDM) approach using subjective scales is utilized to evaluate the complex water resource allocation and management tradeoffs between stakeholders and system objectives. The procedures used in this study include the development of a “shared vision model,” a simulated decision‐making support system (as a tool for sustainable water management strategies associated with water conflicts, management options, and planning criteria), and the application of MCDM techniques for evaluating alternatives provided by the model. The research results demonstrate the utility of the sustainable water resource management model in aid of MCDM techniques in facilitating flexibility during initial stages of alternative identification and evaluation in a basin suffering from severe water conflicts.     

Social Acceptability of Water Resource Management: A Conceptual Approach and Empirical Findings from Portland,Oregon1

Abstract: Surface water resources in urban areas serve multiple functions ranging from recreation to wildlife habitat. As a result, diverse values influence people’s views about resource protection, potentially leading to conflicting interests. In metropolitan Portland, Oregon, natural resource planning has recently focused on habitat restoration as well as stormwater and pollution mitigation, especially through the protection of riparian areas. Due to opposition over proposed regulations in the study region, this research examines public attitudes about an array of resource management efforts. The primary research question is: what is the extent of positive–negative attitudes about water resource protection, and what theoretical dimensions underlie diverse judgments? After empirical survey results are presented, I outline a conceptual approach for future assessments of environmental attitudes while highlighting important value‐based dimensions of judgments. Although flexible, the framework allows broad comparisons to advance knowledge about the social acceptability of varied water resource management approaches across diverse places and contexts.     

MAKING SMARTER ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT DECISIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper outlines a sound, practical approach for making more informed decisions about environmental policy choices. It emphasizes the importance of using a structured decision process to specify and organize values, use these values to create alternatives, and assess tradeoffs to help achieve a desired balance across key objectives. Although these decision making steps are based on common sense, they are often neglected or poorly carried out as part of the complex evaluations of natural resource options. We discuss several reasons for this frequent neglect of decision making principles and provide examples from recent water use planning projects to demonstrate some of the benefits of using a structured, decision focused approach: new and better solutions, increased and more productive participation by stakeholders, and greater defensibility and acceptance of the resource management evaluation process and its conclusions.     

SOCIAL FEASIBILITY AS AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH TO WATER RESOURCE PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: Research suggests that conflict over public participation in water resource planning is due, in part, to confusion over the nature of the policies involved. This article examines the roadblocks to citizen involvement in water resource planning in terms of two policy models: (1) the Social Feasibility Model and (2) the Political Feasibility Model. Each model posits a different role for public participation. Although the Political Feasibility Model has been widely accepted in water resource planning, changes in the nature of the policies involved in water resource management have weakened its appropriateness. Currently, social and redistributive policies involving value conflicts often dominate water planning and these policies are best chosen through the Social Feasibility Model. The article discusses the nature of the social feasibility model, the new types of policy decisions facing water resource managers, and how the social feasibility model can help overcome the roadblocks to increased public participation in water resource policy making.     

Federal Decentralization and Adaptive Management of Water Resources: Reservoir Reallocation by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Reservoir operations must respond to changing conditions, such as climate, water demand, regulations, and sedimentation. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) can reallocate reservoir storage to respond to such changes. We assembled and analyzed a database of reservoir reallocations implemented and proposed by the Corps. While only a small portion of total reservoir storage nationwide has been reallocated, there are substantial differences in reallocation frequency and magnitude across the nation: some Corps Districts and Divisions use reallocation while others do not, relying more on discretion and small‐scale adaptation of operations. This difference illustrates how water resource agencies like the Corps decentralize management decisions to allow responding to disparate conditions. Decentralized decision‐making provides a responsive approach to water management, while centralized and hierarchical decision‐making is a slower, more deliberative approach. Decentralized decision‐making may lead to the accumulation of short‐term, local decisions over time to the point that the system is managed differently than anticipated. Reallocation, which is a form of planned adaptive management, can be accommodating of multiple competing demands and different stakeholders, yet expensive and less temporally responsive. The challenge for any large water resource management agency is to balance between local‐level, responsive discretion vs. centralized, planned decision‐making.     

A SYSTEMS RESOURCES APPROACH TO CITIZEN PARTICIPATION: THE CASE OF THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS1

ABSTRACT: The thesis of this paper is that the citizen participation process provides necessary, but not sufficient conditions to affect substantive change in federal water resource management agencies' planning and decisionmaking. That is, in its present form, the citizen participation process has been observed to occur outside of the normal decision arenas of federal resource management agencies. The paper reviews concepts of citizen participation and defines some theoretical problems inherent with them. Then, a strategy for the structuring of a citizen participation process is proposed. This strategy is based upon the notion that citizen support for federally sponsored programs are essential if such projects are to be implemented. Therefore, an approach which integrates citizen valves with those held by other institutions and the agency is suggested. In conclusion, the relevancy of actively developing and including citizen input to the water resource planning process is illustrated by a discussion of three cases of the Corps of Engineers and Urban Studies planning process, in different metropolitan regions.     

AN APPLICATION OF MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING: AN ECONOMIC VIEW1

ABSTRACT: Individuals involved in state water resource planning generally have avoided any development of a comprehensive public water planning investment model that would set the stage for quantitative recommendations of a “what ought to be” tone for future water strategies. Three New Hampshire towns were selected to illustrate the usefulness of a mixed integer multiperiod programming model that utilizes hydrologic and economic data for identifying the discounted least cost of water supply, distribution, and scheduling. Comparisons are made regarding the feasibility of a regional water system approach versus independent “town by town” water supplies that presently prevail. To analyze the sensitivity of optimal water planning solutions to projected water demands, variations in these demands are made.     

基于流域视角的水环境综合治理规划研究——以江苏省淀山湖为例

以流域为单元进行水资源综合规划和管理是实现水环境改善的重要途径。本文以太湖流域第二大省界湖泊—淀山湖为例,在综合分析流域水环境质量基础上,利用GIS 分析工具划分流域治理片区并制定分区管控策略。根据流域所含骨干河流流向、骨干河流与淀山湖交汇特点、上中下游不同河段及镇域行政边界,将淀山湖流域分为吴淞江流域、千灯浦- 淀山湖流域、昆南湖荡流域、元荡湖荡流域、太浦河流域五大片区138 个子评价单元。通过水环境容量与压力两类空间叠加分析,构建形成污染重点减排区、污染综合治理区、产业绿色化提升区、生态环境保育区等四个类型区域,并提出差异化的产业准入和环境治理措施。本研究不仅为以流域为治理单元的水环境治理规划提供了较为可行的技术体系,而且为太湖流域水环境综合整治思路创新提供了可借鉴的案例。     

INTEGRATED WATERSHED MANAGEMENT ON THE TRUCKEE RWER IN NEVADA1

ABSTRACT: The Truckee River is a vitally important water source for eastern California and western Nevada. It runs 100 miles from Lake Tahoe to Pyramid Lake in the Nevada desert and serves urban populations in greater Reno-Sparks and agricultural users in three Nevada counties. In the 1980s and 1990s, a number of state and local groups initiated projects which, taken collectively, have accomplished much to improve watershed management on the Truckee River. However, the task of writing a management plan for the entire watershed has not yet been undertaken. Key players in state, federal and local government agencies have instead chosen to focus specific improvement efforts on more manageable, achievable goals. The projects currently underway include a new agreement on reservoir operation, restoration of high priority sub-watersheds, public education and involvement, water conservation education, and water resource planning for the major urban population centers. The approach which has been adopted on the Truckee River continues to evolve as more and more people take an interest in the river's future. The many positive projects underway on the watershed are evaluated in terms of how well they meet the definition of the ambitious water resources strategy, “integrated watershed management.”     

A WATER RESOURCE PLANNING PROCEDURE FOR RURAL TOWNS1

ABSTRACT: Six new techniques have been developed for lake watershed analysis and water resource management. The techniques are for determining: (1) watershed land use intensity with reference to water quality, (2) lake vulnerability, (3) water quality, (4) watershed carrying capacity, (5) the economic value of the lake, and (6) the potential of undeveloped lake-shore. These analyses are designed for use by rural planning commissions with guidance and assistance from state agencies and the state university. The comprehensive rural watershed land and water use plan developed by this procedure is inexpensive in time and money, understandable by the layman, and scientificially sound. It is based on presently available information. This water resource planning procedure has been demonstrated in several town planning projects. It is suggested that this method, or modification of it, could be adopted in all rural states by action by a few administrators and without any new enabling or appropriations legislation.     

A PARTICIPATORY APPROACH TO WATERSHED MANAGEMENT: THE BRAZILIAN SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Brazil is currently facing the challenge of implementing a new water resources management system to promote the rational and sustainable use of the country's waters. This system is based on the following principles of water management: (2) stakeholders' participation; (2) the watershed as the planning and management unit; and (3) the economic value of water. Stakeholders' participation and the involvement of civil society in the decision making process is guaranteed by permanent seats in the watersheds' management committees. These committees are the highest decision level for the establishment of water policy and for planning its use. The executive branch of the committees is the watershed agency or the water agency. This paper presents the recently approved Brazilian water resources management system and discusses the participatory approach followed to validate and to ensure prompt response to decisions regarding water use by all stakeholders. The formulation of the National Water Law (January/1998) was also supported by extensive consultation with civil society, professional associations, state and municipal governments as well as with federal governmental agencies and private sector organizations. It also presents an overview of the formulation of the National Water Law. Finally, as watershed committees have been created and are already operating in a limited number of watersheds, some of the major obstacles to the success of the new system are discussed along with alternatives for overcoming such obstacles.     

RATES,RIGHTS, AND REGIONAL PLANNING IN THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California has for more than 70 years shaped the development of an immense urban region. The district's current strategic planning process therefore could have substantial effects on regional water planning and management. The rate restructuring phase of the planning process has produced a multiple component, cost of service based framework. This paper describes that framework as well as some criticisms that have been directed toward it. The rate restructuring was shaped, and for a while stalled, by old disputes among member agencies over rights to water supplied by Metropolitan. That controversy has diverted attention from the resource management implications of the rate structure. This paper presents an alternative future focused approach to regional integrated water resource planning for Southern California based on projections of current trends and anticipation of future events. This discussion raises the question of how regional integrated water resources planning of this sort may proceed, and what role Metropolitan will play in that process.     

System Dynamics to Sustainable Water Resources Management in the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer Under Water Supply Uncertainty1

Abstract: Water supply uncertainty continues to threaten the reliability of regional water resources in the western United States. Climate variability and water dispute potentials induce water managers to develop proactive adaptive management strategies to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts. The Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer in the state of Idaho is also facing these challenges in the sense that population growth and economic development strongly depend on reliable water resources from underground storage. Drought and subsequent water conflict often drive scientific research and political agendas because water resources availability and aquifer management for a sustainable rural economy are of great interest. In this study, a system dynamics approach is applied to address dynamically complex problems with management of the aquifer and associated surface‐water and groundwater interactions. Recharge and discharge dynamics within the aquifer system are coded in an environmental modeling framework to identify long‐term behavior of aquifer responses to uncertain future hydrological variability. The research shows that the system dynamics approach is a promising modeling tool to develop sustainable water resources planning and management in a collaborative decision‐making framework and also to provide useful insights and alternative opportunities for operational management, policy support, and participatory strategic planning to mitigate future hydroclimate impacts in human dimensions.     

Water Prism: A Tool to Assess Water Availability Risk and Investigate Water Management Strategies

Water availability risk is a local issue best understood with watershed‐scale quantification of both withdrawal and consumptive demands in the context of available supply. Collectively, all water use sectors must identify, understand, and respond to this risk. A highly visual and computationally robust decision support tool, Water Prism, quantitatively explores mitigation responses to water risk on both a facility‐level and basin‐aggregated basis. Water Prism examines a basin water balance for a 40‐ to 60‐year planning horizon, distinguishes among water use sectors, and accounts for ecosystem water needs. The 2012 Texas State Water Plan was used to apply Water Prism to the Big Cypress‐Sulphur Basin (Texas). The case study showed Water Prism to be an accurate and convenient tool to provide fine‐scale understanding of water use in the context of available supply, evaluate multi‐sector combinations of conservation strategies, and quantify the effects of future demands and water availability. Analyses demonstrated water availability risks for rivers and reservoirs can vary within a basin and must be calculated independently, simulation of water balance conditions can help illuminate potential impacts of increasing demands, and scenario simulations can be used to evaluate relative conservation efficacy of different water resource management strategies for each sector. Based on case study findings, Water Prism can serve as a useful assessment tool for regional water planners.     

The impact of visual information on perceptions of water resource problems and management alternatives

To assess changes in human understanding and decision making, the paper examines (1) the influence of visual information on perceptions about groundwater management in Phoenix, Arizona and (2) the correlates and dimensions underlying people's views about water scarcity and mitigation strategies. While perceptions entrenched in ideologies are difficult to change, different types of information (three-dimensional versus two-dimensional) have distinct impacts on the perceived magnitude of problems compared to judgements about their causes and solutions. Overall, visual information may be especially useful for developing a shared understanding of problems and a collective vision for management alternatives. Additional implications of this study for fostering environmental awareness, policy support, and collaborative decision making are also discussed.     

APPLICATION OF CRITICAL PATH METHOD TO WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT. The task of resource management, in this case water resources, is rapidly becoming more complex, particularly because decision making is often contingent upon various prior activities and sets of data. Comprehensive planning is required in order to prevent misallocation of resources or mismanagement in resource development. Such planning involves five general phases which are applicable to any problem faced by society: (1) problem identification; (2) formulation of alternatives; (3) evaluation of alternatives; (4) implementation; (5) review. There have been many attempts to simplify the planning process and effectively carry out these five phases. The experience of the Alberta Water Resources Division has been that the Critical Path Method is one of the most useful tools available today for planning. It involves two basic steps: (1) preparation of a network diagram which (a) identifies all the activities necessary for the completion of a project, (b) correctly sequences these activities, (c) allocates resources; and (2) mathematical computations for scheduling the activities. In other words, this approach breaks a task down into smaller units or activities for easier organization, scheduling, and performance for eventual completion of the project. This paper will illustrate the effectiveness of the Critical Path Method by discussing its application to actual water resources projects.     

Systematic regional planning for multiple objective natural resource management

On-ground natural resource management actions such as revegetation and remnant vegetation management can simultaneously affect multiple objectives including land, water and biodiversity resources. Hence, planning for the sustainable management of natural resources requires consideration of these multiple objectives. However, planning the location of management actions in the landscape often treats these objectives individually to reduce the process and spatial complexity inherent in human-modified and natural landscapes. This can be inefficient and potentially counterproductive given the linkages and trade-offs involved. We develop and apply a systematic regional planning approach to identify geographic priorities for on-ground natural resource management actions that most cost-effectively meet multiple natural resource management objectives. Our systematic regional planning approach utilises integer programming within a structured multi-criteria decision analysis framework. Intelligent siting can capitalise on the multiple benefits of on-ground actions and achieve natural resource management objectives more efficiently. The focus of this study is the human-modified landscape of the River Murray, South Australia. However, the methodology and analyses presented here can be adapted to other regions requiring more efficient and integrated planning for the management of natural resources.     

CLIMATE FORECASTS IN FLOOD PLANNING: PROMISE AND AMBIGUITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent technical and scientific advances have increased the potential use of long term, seasonal climate forecasts for improving water resource management. This paper examines the role that forecasts, in particular those based on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, can play in flood planning in the Pacific Northwest. While strong evidence exists of an association between ENSO signals and flooding in the region, this association is open to more than one interpretation depending on: (a) the metric used to test the strength of the association; (b) the definition of critical flood events; (c) site specific features of watersheds; and (d) the decision environment of flood management institutions. A better understanding and appreciation of such ambiguities, both social and statistical, will help facilitate the use of climate forecast information for flood planning and response.     

WATER MANAGEMENT IN ONTARIO1

ABSTRACT: The Ontario Ministry of the Environment has based its water quality management approach on a set of guidelines published in 1970. In light of the changing societal and economic background, advancement in technology and scientific knowledge, and philosophical attitudes towards water management, the water management program was recently revised. Factors influencing the revised approach, including federal-provincial interrelationships and international commitments under the Canada-U.S. Agreement, are summarized. The revised program consists of a goal statement, policies to implement this goal, revised water quality objectives, and detailed implementation procedures for field staff use. Rather than promulgating regulations to impose arbitrary effluent or receiving water standards on a province-wide basis, the revised approach involves the imposition of legally enforceable effluent requirements on a case-by-case basis. Although the paper emphasizes the surface water quality program, it also outlines the Ministry's goals, policies, and procedures for the management of surface-water quantity, as well as ground water quality and quantity.