Attack vulnerability of self-organizing networks

There are several self-organizing networks in the real world, and these networks severely affect the development of the modern society. This paper investigates the vulnerability of self-organizing networks subject to malicious attacks according to a new framework. Assuming the initial load of node i as L_i=αk_i+(1-α)∑_j∈Γik_j with k_i and Γ_i being the degree and the set of neighbor nodes of the node i, where α is a tunable parameter and control the strength of the initial loads of nodes. The node with the maximum degree is considered as the attacked node, and with the changes of the parameter α, cascading failures will be investigated in this paper. Local redistribution rule has been adopted to study the cascading breakdowns of the US power grid and IEEE-118 networks. Additionally, the capacity of the node i is defined as C_i = (1 + β)L_i, the critical threshold β_c of the US power grid and IEEE-118 networks will be obtained from the evolutional process of cascading failures. Finally, an optimal design of US power grid network is given in this paper.     

Robustness of the western United States power grid under edge attack strategies due to cascading failures

Power systems are the basic support of modern infrastructures and protecting them from random failures or intentional attacks is an active topic of research in safety science. This paper is motivated by the following two related problems about cascading failures on power grids: efficient edge attack strategies and lower cost protections on edges. Applying the recent cascading model by adopting a local load redistribution rule, where the initial load of an edge ij is (k_ik_j)^θ with k_i and k_j being the degrees of the nodes connected by the edge, we investigate the performance of the power grid of the western United States subject to three intentional attacks. Simulation results show that the effects of different attacks for the network robustness against cascading failures have close relations with the tunable parameter θ. Particularly, the attack on the edges with the lower load in the case of θ < 1.4 can result in larger cascading failures than the one on the edges with the higher load. In addition, compared with the other two attacks, a new attack, i.e., removing the edges with the smallest proportion between the total capacities of the neighboring edges of and the capacity of the attacked edge, usually are prone to trigger cascading failures over the US power grid. Our findings will be not only helpful to protect the key edges selected effectively to avoid cascading-failure-induced disasters, but also useful in the design of high-robustness and low-cost infrastructure networks.     

An epidemiologic comparison of injuries presenting to a pediatric emergency department and local urgent care facilities

Problem

The objective of this study was to compare the epidemiology of injuries presenting to emergency department (ED) and urgent care (UC) facilities of a single, NEISS-affiliated hospital.

Method

Patient medical records (n = 36,811) were used to compare injury incidence, injury characteristics, and demographic characteristics between the ED, on-site UC, and off-site UC during 2006.

Results

ED presentations were more likely to be open wounds and motor vehicle-related compared to on-site UC presentations. ED presentations were more likely to be system wide/late effects, be made by an African American, or be paid through Medicaid compared to off-site UC presentations. On-site UC presentations were more likely to be made by an African American or be paid through Medicaid compared to off-site UC presentations.

Discussion

ED and UC injury characteristics and patient demographics differ. With no nationally-representative UC injury surveillance, current research likely underestimates injury incidence and presents skewed profiles. Impact on Industry: This article adds insight into the generalizability of ED-based injury surveillance to UC injuries.     

Evaluation of give kids a boost: A school-based program to increase booster seat use among urban children in economically disadvantaged areas

Objective: This study evaluated the effectiveness of a series of 1-year multifaceted school-based programs aimed at increasing booster seat use among urban children 4–7 years of age in economically disadvantaged areas.

Methods: During 4 consecutive school years, 2011–2015, the Give Kids a Boost (GKB) program was implemented in a total of 8 schools with similar demographics in Dallas County. Observational surveys were conducted at project schools before project implementation (P₀), 1–4 weeks after the completion of project implementation (P₁), and 4–5 months later (P₂). Changes in booster seat use for the 3 time periods were compared for the 8 project and 14 comparison schools that received no intervention using a nonrandomized trial process.

The intervention included (1) train-the-trainer sessions with teachers and parents; (2) presentations about booster seat safety; (3) tailored communication to parents; (4) distribution of fact sheets/resources; (5) walk-around education; and (6) booster seat inspections.

The association between the GKB intervention and proper booster seat use was determined initially using univariate analysis. The association was also estimated using a generalized linear mixed model predicting a binomial outcome (booster seat use) for those aged 4 to 7 years, adjusted for child-level variables (age, sex, race/ethnicity) and car-level variables (vehicle type). The model incorporated the effects of clustering by site and by collection date to account for the possibility of repeated sampling.

Results: In the 8 project schools, booster seat use for children 4–7 years of age increased an average of 20.9 percentage points between P₀ and P₁ (P₀ = 4.8%, P₁ = 25.7%; odds ratio [OR] = 6.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.5, 8.7; P < .001) and remained at that level in the P₂ time period (P₂ = 25.7%; P < .001, for P₀ vs. P₂) in the univariate analysis. The 14 comparison schools had minimal change in booster seat use. The multivariable model showed that children at the project schools were significantly more likely to be properly restrained in a booster seat after the intervention (OR = 2.7; 95% CI, 2.2, 3.3) compared to the P₀ time period and compared to the comparison schools.

Conclusion: Despite study limitations, the GKB program was positively associated with an increase in proper booster seat use for children 4–7 years of age in school settings among diverse populations in economically disadvantaged areas. These increases persisted into the following school year in a majority of the project schools. The GKB model may be a replicable strategy to increase booster seat use among school-age children in similar urban settings.     

Laboratory study using paper mill lime mud for agronomic benefit

Annual ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) is an important cool-season forage grass in the southeastern US. Since large portions of soils in this region are too acidic for optimum ryegrass production, there exists an opportunity to use lime mud waste from numerous regional pulp and paper mills as an agricultural liming material. In this study, four lime mud application rates, 2.25 (L₁), 4.51 (L₂), 9.01 (L₃), and 22.50 (L₄) ton ha⁻¹, dry weight basis, and a control (L₀) were evaluated for response to ryegrass growth during the first 6 weeks to estimate an optimum application range over the testing soil for future field test. Results indicated that applied lime mud slowed ryegrass germination and seedling emergence, with differences of whole plant length among treatments L₀–L₄ significant only during the first three weeks. Differences of whole plant dry weight among treatments L₀–L₄ reduced thereafter. The initial soil pH increase due to the lime mud application dropped in treatments L₁–L₄ by the end of the 6-week experiment. The optimum lime mud application range was estimated between L₂ and L₃, which provided higher ryegrass yields (kg ha⁻¹) of 84 and 80 over 77 of the control and complied with the Code of Federal Regulation, CFR 40 Part 503 for land application.     

Health, safety, self-regulation and the older driver: It's not just a matter of age

Problem

The purpose of this research was to examine the impact of age and health on patterns of driving and self-regulation among older adults who still drive.

Method

This analysis presents the results of a nationwide survey of drivers who are 50 + (N = 3,824, 53.11% response rate), focusing on questions about the impact of their self-reported health on attitudes toward and self-regulation of driving.

Results

The data indicate that as age increases, so too does reported self-regulation of driving, increasing sharply among those ages 70 and older. The data also indicate that respondent's reported confidence in driving and their enjoyment of driving decline as they age. Health status bears a significant relationship with all three of these variables, positively related to confidence in driving skills and to enjoyment in driving, but negatively related to self-regulation reports. As self-reported health declines, respondent's report engages in greater voluntary restrictions of their driving.

Discussion

All too often, the driving decision is linked primarily to chronological age. Analysis done here indicates that age alone is not the best indicator of self-regulation and how older adults change their driving behaviors.

Summary

This research presents the results of a nationwide survey of 50+ drivers and their self-reported driving, self-regulation behaviors, and health status. Strong support was found for the argument that chronological age is not an adequate measure of self-regulating behaviors and driver safety among those 50+. In particular, it was found that a person's health status and the interaction between age and health are essential considerations in the decisions around self-regulation and driving. People tend to self-regulate more with age, but the effect becomes much more pronounced as health status declines.

Impact on industry

In the coming years, if older adults can't get to where they want to go and continue to be viable consumers in our national fabric, all industries will eventually suffer. Transportation is a key component to the nation's social contract with older individuals and their families.     

Trauma demography and clinical epidemiology of motorcycle crash–related head injury in a neurosurgery practice in an African developing country

Objective: Though motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) were the main cause of head trauma from road traffic injuries (RTIs), motorcycle crashes (MCCs) are now a major cause of RTI-related head injury (HI) in many developing countries.

Methods: Using a prospective database of HIs from a neurosurgical practice in a sub-Saharan African developing country, a cross-sectional survey was conducted for the trauma demography and clinical epidemiology of this MCC-related HI.

Results: Motorcycle crashes accounted for 57% (473/833) of all RTI-related HIs in this registry. The victims, with a mean age of 33.1 years (SD = 18.3), consisted mainly of males (83.1%), those of low socioeconomic status (>90%), and those aged between 20 and 40 years old (56%). MCCs involved only riders in 114 cases (114/473, 32.1%), of which 69% were motorcycle–motorcycle crashes. The HI was moderate–severe in 50.8%; clinical symptomatology of significant HI included loss of consciousness (92%), anisocoria (35%), Abbreviated Injury Scale head (AIS–head) score > 3 (28%), and CT-Rotterdam score > 3 (30%). Extracranial systemic injury involved the limbs most frequently, with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) >25 in 49%. The fatality rate was 24%.

MCC-related HI among pedestrian victims involved more vulnerable age groups (the young and elderly) but have lower mean ISS compared to motorcycle passengers (mean ISS = 23.5 [11.6] vs. 27.4 [13.0]; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27–6.49; P = .004). In addition, compared to a contemporary cohort of MVC-related HIs in our registry, MCC victims were older (mean age 34.8 years [18.0] vs. 30.8 [18.4]; P = .002); had higher proportions of certain extracranial trauma like long bone fractures (71 vs. 29%; P = .02); and suffered fewer surgical brain lesions (25.5 vs. 17.2%; P = .004).

Conclusions: Motorcycle crashes are now a significant threat to the heads, limbs, and lives of vulnerable road users in developing countries.     

Hazard perception of stroke drivers in a video-based Japanese hazard perception task

Objective: Hazard perception (HP) is the ability to identify a hazardous situation while driving. Though HP has been well studied among neurologically intact populations, little is known about the HP of neurologically impaired populations (in this study, stroke patients). The purpose of this study is, first, to investigate the HP of stroke patients and, second, to verify the effect of lesion side (right or left hemisphere) on HP, from the viewpoint of hazard types.

Methods: Sixty-seven neurologically intact age-matched older drivers and 63 stroke patients with valid driver’s licenses conducted a video-based Japanese HP task. Participants were asked to indicate the hazardous events in the driving scenario. These events were classified into 3 types: (1) behavioral prediction hazards (BP), which are those where the cause is visible before it becomes a hazard; (2) environmental prediction hazards (EP), which are those where the ultimate hazard may be hidden from view; and (3) dividing and focusing attention hazards (DF), which are those where there is more than one potential hazard to monitor on approach．Participants also took part in the Trail Making Test (TMT) to evaluate visual information processing speed.

Results: The results showed that the number of responses was significantly fewer for stroke patients than for age-matched drivers for all hazard types (P < .001), and this difference was not affected by lesion side (P > .05). It was also found that stroke patients showed a slower response time than age-matched drivers only for BP (P < .001). The lesion side did not affect response latency (P > .05). Results of the TMT revealed that age-matched drivers completed the task significantly faster than stroke patients (P < .001) and that neither TMT-A nor TMT-B differentiated between patients with left hemisphere damage and patients with right hemisphere damage (P > .05).

Conclusions: Firstly, HP in stroke patients is low compared to age-matched drivers. Secondly, even if stroke patients notice hazards, their response may be delayed in a BP situation, due to a slower visual information processing speed. Thirdly, the lesion side does not appear to affect HP.     

Estimating the variance in before-after studies

Problem

To simplify the computation of the variance in before-after studies, it is generally assumed that the observed crash data for each entity (or observation) are Poisson distributed. Given the characteristics of this distribution, the observed value (x_i) for each entity is implicitly made equal to its variance. However, the variance should be estimated using the conditional properties of this observed value (defined as a random variable), that is, f(x_i|μ_i), since the mean of the observed value is in fact unknown.

Method

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods were investigated to evaluate the conditional assumption using simulated and observed data.

Results

The results of this study show that observed data should not be used as a substitute for the variance, even if the entities are assumed to be Poisson distributed. Consequently, the estimated variance for the parameters under study in traditional before-after studies is likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

The proposed methods offer more accurate approaches for estimating the variance in before-after studies.     

Integrated model of simulated occupant injury risk and real medical costs

Introduction

The purpose of this study was to develop an integrated methodology that links occupant injury risk functions, estimated in the laboratory, with real world medical treatment costs by using the abbreviated injury score (AIS). Using our model, the expected medical treatment costs for crash injuries to various body regions and of different severities can be investigated.

Methods

First, the simulation results are compared with NHTSA crash data. We used a modified kinematics simulation model that incorporates an F = E^b function as a supplement to the previous Steffan's model to obtain a more accurate acceleration history a(t). Second, head injury criteria HIC₃₆ can be calculated from a(t), and we use the injury probability P as a function of HIC_36, as proposed by Kuppa, to obtain the injury risk function for various AIS values. Third, medical treatment cost models for various AIS values can be calculated by using a regression cost model with real world data. Finally, the injury risk function and medical treatment cost models are linked through AIS values. We establish an integrated methodology and predict medical costs and car safety data using real world police reports, medical treatment costs, and laboratory simulation results.

Results

Using head injuries in frontal crashes as an example, we focus on simulation parameters for different vehicle models, with and without airbags. We specifically examine impact closing speed, Delta-V, and impact directions.

Conclusion

Simulation results can be used to supplement insufficient real crash data, in particular ΔV, and injury risk results from police crash reports.

Impact on industry

The proposed integrated methodology may provide the vehicle industry with a new safety assessment method. Real crash data coupling provides consumers with more realistic and applicable information.     

Helmet retention system types as a risk factor to properly attach the chin strap

Objectives: This study aimed to determine the factors associated with the incorrect use of a helmet retention system (loose or open) and how often this happens.

Methods: This was an observational transversal study conducted in Curitiba, Brazil. Trained observers positioned at traffic lights collected information about the helmet fixation mode, the helmet model (full-face, open-face, modular, half), and the helmet retention system model (micrometric, double-D, fast-release). Additional data including position on the motorcycle, gender, and function of the motorcycle (as a work vehicle) were collected. The observers, collection site, and periods were randomly selected by lots.

Results: From a total of 3,050 motorcyclists, 1,807 (59.2%) had their helmets fastened correctly, 907 (29.7%) had the retention system fastened loosely, and in 336 (11.0%), the retention system was completely open. Increased odds of incorrect use were observed for the fast-release and double-D buckles compared to the micrometrics buckles, with a fixed odds ratio (OR) of 4.62 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.89–5.51) and 3.54 (95% CI, 2.46–5.09), respectively (P <.0001). Full-face helmets had a higher chance of incorrect use (P <.0001), and passengers had a higher incidence of incorrect use of the helmet than drivers (P <.0001).

Conclusion: An important risk factor related to the incorrect use of the helmet was the type of retention system. The helmet model and being a passenger had a secondary influence on incorrect use of helmets.     

Tracking the prevalence of rollover protective structures on U.S. farm tractors: 1993, 2001, and 2004

Problem

Between 1992 and 2005, 1412 workers on farms died from tractor overturns. A Rollover Protective Structure (ROPS) is a proven intervention to reduce overturn deaths. However, farm characteristics that are associated with the adoption of ROPS are not well understood.

Methods

ROPS prevalence statistics were derived from National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) surveys that tracked ROPS use on farms. Data were from the years 1993, 2001, and 2004.

Results

In 1993, 38% of tractors were equipped with ROPS. This increased to 51% by 2004. ROPS prevalence rates were higher on farms in the Southern region of the United States, on farms where the operator was 25-34 years old, and on farms with $100,000 or more of farm sales. Low ROPS prevalence rates were associated with farm operators 65 years old or older and with farms with less than $10,000 of farm product sales.

Summary

The increase in ROPS prevalence between 1993 and 2004 has not been sufficient to decrease the rate of tractor overturn deaths on farms. Incentive programs targeting older farm operators and low-income farm operations are suggested to increase ROPS use on tractors.

Impact on Industry

The study provides farm characteristics associated with low ROPS prevalence rates. The results can be used to target farms for future ROPS promotion activities.     

An ethnography of low-income mothers' safeguarding efforts

Problem

Children living in lower-income environments are at greater risk for unintentional injuries. However, little is known about the safety practices of mothers living in low-income situations.

Method

This ethnographic study explored the child safeguarding experiences of low-income mothers using in-home interviews and observations.

Results

Mothers' safeguarding efforts included cognitive and emotional work, child directed work, and work directed at the physical and social environments. Factors that influenced the women's safeguarding included the quality of the indoor space, availability of safe play space, traffic hazards, sibling interactions, child care supports, relationships with neighbors, and trust in community services.

Discussion

These findings have implications for the conceptualization of safeguarding practices and provide insight about the experiences of mothers living on low-incomes.

Impact on Industry

When developing safety interventions, program planners should consider the views and practices of mothers as well as contextual factors in the physical and social environments.     

The relationship between recruitment processes, familiarity, trust, perceived risk and safety

Introduction and Method

Participants′ perceptions of the safety-related aspects of their organization′s recruitment processes were examined, as were their perceptions of safety aspects associated with new recruits.

Results

One hundred and fifty-four professional fire fighters indicated the trust they held in the safety-related aspects of their organizations′ selection and pre-start training. Perceived trust in pre-start training was negatively correlated (r = -.24, p < .01) with the risk associated with new recruits, and positively correlated (r = .50, p < .01) with ratings of trust in recruits to immediately work safely. Furthermore, trust in recruits to immediately work safely was negatively correlated (r = -.21, p < .01) with crews′ safety behavior toward recruits.

Conclusions

These results are interpreted as particularly dangerous for workers, as new recruits lack familiarity with aspects of their new workplace that cannot be addressed by either selection or pre-start training, making them a risk.

Impact on Industry

Organizations should actively identify new recruits, and encourage existing team members not to immediately trust new recruits to work safely.