Influence of Traffic Emissions Estimation Variability on Urban Air Quality Modelling

The main objective of this work is to analyse how uncertainties in emission data of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) and volatile organic compounds (VOC), originated from road traffic, influence the model prediction of ozone (O₃) concentration fields. Different methods to estimate emissions were applied and results were compared in order to obtain their variability. Based on these data, different emission scenarios were compiled for each pollutant considering the minimum and the maximum values of the estimated emission range. These scenarios were used as input to the MAR-IV mesoscale modelling system. Simulations have been performed for a summer day in the Northern Region of Portugal. The different approaches to estimate NO_x and VOC traffic emissions show a significant variability of absolute values and of their spatial distribution. Comparison of modelling results obtained from the two scenarios presents a dissimilarity of 37% for ozone concentration fields as a response of the system to a variation in the input emission data of 63% for NO_x and 59% for VOC. Far beyond all difficulties and approximations, the developed methodology to build up an emission data base shows to be consistent and an useful tool in order to turn applicable an air quality model. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of the model to input data should be considered when it is used as a decision support tool.     

Analysis of the St. Petersburg Traffic Data using the OSPM Model

Since October 1998 two DOAS instruments were installed at the level of the first floor and at the top of a building located in St. Petersburg at Pestelya Street. The collected datacovers the time period of December 1998–March 2001, and include concentrations of benzene, toluene, NO and NO₂, ozone and SO₂. There is also an additional information about the traffic intensity and meteorological conditions. The results of the analysis of this data set, using the OSPM model, are presented here with the goal to understand the features of the air pollution dispersion in this street canyon and to analyse the information about the emission factors of the vehicles. In particular, the model results are used for the solution of the inverse problem of reconstructing the emission factors from measured concentrations. The results obtained indicate that most of the concentrations are well inside the Russian standards with the only exception of NO₂ (mean and 98-th percentile are equal to 57.8 and 119.2 g m^-3 for the street level). The same values for benzene are 18.5 and 62.6, respectively. Emission estimates show that there is a possibility that the NO_x and benzene basic emission factors recommended by the Russian national guidelines could result in overestimating the traffic emissions. These considerations are supplemented with the model sensitivity tests carried out in connection with the problem of predictability of NO₂ concentrations in the street canyon. Tests indicate that NO₂ concentrations are not very sensitive to NO_x emissions because of the usually low urban background ozone levels.     

Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.     

Adapting the Speciation of the VOCs Emission Inventory in the Greater Athens Area

An adaptation procedure of a new emission inventory of theGreater Athens Area is attempted, based on a sensitivityanalysis on the treatment of the VOC emissions. Throughthis procedure the impact that a more detailed treatment ofthe VOCs emissions might have on the atmospheric chemistrysimulations, is examined. For this analysis three differentchemical mechanisms were applied for two differentlocations (urban and city plume) with different VOC andNO_x mixture characteristics. Finally, this studyrecommends new carbon fractions, reflecting the localconditions in Athens basin.     

Long Term Trends in Sulphur and Nitrogen Deposition in Europe and the Cause of Non-linearities

Emissions of sulphur and oxidized nitrogen compounds in Europe have been reduced following a series of control measures during the last two decades. These changes have taken place during a period in which the primary gases and the wet deposition throughout Europe were extensively monitored. Since the end of the 1970s, for example land based sulphur emissions declined by between 90 and 70% depending on the region. Over the same period the total deposition of sulphur and its partitioning into wet and dry deposition have declined, but the spatial pattern in the reduction in deposition differs from that of emission and has changed with time. Such non-linearities in the emission-deposition relationship are important to understand as they complicate the process of assessing the effects of emission reduction strategies. Observed non-linearities in terrestrial sulphur emission-deposition patterns have been identified in north west Europe due to increases in marine emissions, and are currently slowing the recovery of freshwater ecosystems. Changes in the relative amounts of SO₂ and NH₃ in air over the last two decades have also changed the affinity of terrestrial surfaces for SO₂ and have therefore changed the deposition velocity of SO₂ over substantial areas. The consequence of this effect has been the very rapid reduction in ambient SO₂ concentration in some of the major source areas of Europe, where NH₃ did not change much. Interactions between the different pollutants, generating non-linearities are now being incorporated in long-range transport models to simulate the effects of historical emission trends and to provide projections into the future. This paper identifies non-linearities in emission deposition relationships for sulphur and nitrogen compounds in Europe using data from the EMEP long-rang transport model and measured concentration fields of the major ions in precipitation and of SO₂ and NO₂ in surface air.     

Modelling Seasonal Dynamics from Temporal Variation in Agricultural Practices in the UK Ammonia Emission Inventory

Most ammonia (NH₃) emission inventories have been calculated on an annual basis and do not take into account the seasonal variability of emissions that occur as a consequence of climate and agricultural practices that change throughout the year. When used as input to atmospheric transport models to simulate concentration fields, these models therefore fail to capture seasonal variations in ammonia concentration and dry and wet deposition. In this study, seasonal NH₃ emissions from agriculture were modelled on a monthly basis for the year 2000, by incorporating temporal aspects of farming practice. These monthly emissions were then spatially distributed using the AENEID model (Atmospheric Emissions for National Environmental Impacts Determination). The monthly model took the temporal variation in the magnitude of the ammonia emissions, as well as the fine scale (1-km) spatial variation of those temporal changes into account to provide improved outputs at 5-km resolution. The resulting NH₃ emission maps showed a strong seasonal emission pattern, with the highest emissions during springtime (March and April) and the lowest emissions during summer (May to July). This emission pattern was mainly influenced by whether cattle were outside grazing or housed and by the application of manures and fertilizers to the land. When the modelled emissions were compared with measured NH₃ concentrations, the comparison suggested that the modelled emission trend corresponds fairly well with the seasonal trend in the measurements. The remaining discrepancies point to the need to develop functional parametrisations of the interactions with climatic seasonal variation.     

CO₂ emission factors for waste incineration: Influence from source separation of recyclable materials

CO₂-loads from combustible waste are important inputs for national CO₂ inventories and life-cycle assessments (LCA). CO₂ emissions from waste incinerators are often expressed by emission factors in kg fossil CO₂ emitted per GJ energy content of the waste. Various studies have shown considerable variations between emission factors for different incinerators, but the background for these variations has not been thoroughly examined. One important reason may be variations in collection of recyclable materials as source separation alters the composition of the residual waste incinerated. The objective of this study was to quantify the importance of source separation for determination of emission factors for incineration of residual household waste. This was done by mimicking various source separation scenarios and based on waste composition data calculating resulting emission factors for residual waste routed to incineration. Emission factors ranged from 27 to 40 kg CO₂/GJ. The results appeared most sensitive towards variations in waste composition and water content. Recycling rates and lower heating values could not be used as simple indicators of the resulting emission factors for residual household waste; however the fossil carbon ratio of the waste after source separation was found to be appropriately correlated with the emission factor. Based on the results, it is recommended to carefully evaluate the source separation and collection systems behind reported literature values when comparing different studies and when using the values for environmental assessment purposes.     

Processing National CO2 Inventory Emissions Data and their Total Uncertainty Estimates

The uncertainty of reported greenhouse gases emission inventories obtained by the aggregation of partial emissions from all sources and estimated to date for several countries is very high in comparison with the countries’ emissions limitation and reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Independent calculation of the estimates could confirm or question the undertainty estimates values obtained thus far. One of the aims of this paper is to propose statistical signal processing methods to enable calculation of the inventory variances. The annual reported emissions are used and temporal smoothness of the emissions curve is assumed. The methods considered are: a spline-function-smoothing procedure; a time-varying parameter model; and the geometric Brownian motion model. These are validated on historical observations of the CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The estimates of variances obtained are in a similar range to those obtained from national inventories using TIER1 or TIER2. Additionally, some regularities in the observed curves were noticed.     

Chemical characterization of emissions from a municipal solid waste treatment plant

Gaseous emissions are an important problem in municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment plants. The sources points of emissions considered in the present work are: fresh compost, mature compost, landfill leaks and leachate ponds. Hydrogen sulphide, ammonia and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were analysed in the emissions from these sources. Hydrogen sulphide and ammonia were important contributors to the total emission volume. Landfill leaks are significant source points of emissions of H₂S; the average concentration of H₂S in biogas from the landfill leaks is around 1700 ppmv. The fresh composting site was also an important contributor of H₂S to the total emission volume; its concentration varied between 3.2 and 1.7 ppmv and a decrease with time was observed. The mature composting site showed a reduction of H₂S concentration (<0.1 ppmv). Leachate pond showed a low concentration of H₂S (in order of ppbv). Regarding NH₃, composting sites and landfill leaks are notable source points of emissions (composting sites varied around 30–600 ppmv; biogas from landfill leaks varied from 160 to 640 ppmv).Regarding VOCs, the main compounds were: limonene, p-cymene, pinene, cyclohexane, reaching concentrations around 0.2–4.3 ppmv.H₂S/NH₃, limonene/p-cymene, limonene/cyclohexane ratios can be useful for analysing and identifying the emission sources.     

The spatial distribution of ammonia emitted from seabirds and its contribution to atmospheric nitrogen deposition in the UK

Simple bioenergetics models were used to derive annual nitrogen excretion rates of each seabird species occurring at colonies in the UK. These were combined with population distribution data and an estimated fraction of nitrogen volatilized to estimate the spatial distribution of NH₃ emissions from seabird colonies at a 1 km resolution. The effect of these emissions on atmospheric NH₃ concentrations and nitrogen deposition in the UK was assessed using the FRAME atmospheric chemistry and transport model. The total emission of NH₃ from the UK seabird colonies is estimated at 2.7 kt yr^–1. Emissions from seabirds are largely concentrated in remote parts of Britain, where agricultural and other anthropogenic emissions are minimal. Although seabirds account for less than 1% of total UK NH₃ emissions (370 kt yr^–1), their occurrence in remote areas and frequently large colony sizes results in seabirds providing a major fraction of the atmospheric nitrogen deposition for many remote ecosystems.     

Ozone Deposition to a Coniferous and Deciduous Forest in the Czech Republic

Estimates of ozone concentration and deposition flux to coniferous and deciduous forest in the Czech Republic on a 1 × 1 km grid during growing season (April–September) of the year 2001 are presented. Ozone deposition flux was derived from ozone concentrations in the atmosphere and from its deposition velocities. To quantify the spatial pattern in surface concentrations at 1 km resolution incorporating topography, empirical methods are used. The procedure maps ozone concentrations from the period of the day when measurements are representative for the forest areas of countryside. The effects of boundary layer stability are quantified using the observed relationship between the diurnal variability of surface ozone concentration and altitude. Ozone deposition velocities were calculated according to a multiple resistance model incorporating aerodynamic resistance (R _a ), laminar layer resistance (R _b ) and surface resistance (R _c ). Surface resistance (R _c ) comprises stomatal resistance (R _sto ). R _sto was calculated with respect to global radiation, surface air temperature and land cover. Modelled total and stomatal ozone fluxes are compared with the maps describing equivalent values of AOT40 (accumulated exposure over threshold of 40 ppb). For forests, the critical level (9,000 ppbh May–July daylight hours) is exceeded over 50% of forested territory. This indicates the potential for effects on large areas of forest. There is significiant correspondence between the exposure index AOT40 and the total ozone flux, but the relation between the total ozone flux and AOT40 exposure index is not clear in all parts of the forest territory.     

National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Understanding Uncertainties versus Potential for Improving Reliability

We investigated the Austrian national greenhouse gas emission inventory to review the reliability and usability of such inventories. The overall uncertainty of the inventory (95% confidence interval) is just over 10% of total emissions, with nitrous oxide (N₂O) from soils clearly providing the largest impact. Trend uncertainty – the difference between 2 years – is only about five percentage points, as important sources like soil N₂O are not expected to show different behavior between the years and thus exhibit a high covariance. The result is very typical for industrialized countries – subjective decisions by individuals during uncertainty assessment are responsible for most of the discrepancies among countries. Thus, uncertainty assessment cannot help to evaluate whether emission targets have been met. Instead, a more rigid emission accounting system that allows little individual flexibility is proposed to provide harmonized evaluation uninfluenced by the respective targets. Such an accounting system may increase uncertainty in terms of greenhouse gas fluxes to the atmosphere. More importantly, however, it will decrease uncertainty in intercountry comparisons and thus allow for fair burden sharing. Setting of post-Kyoto emission targets will require the independent evaluation of achievements. This can partly be achieved by the validation of emission inventories and thorough uncertainty assessment.     

The estimation of N2O emissions from municipal solid waste incineration facilities: The Korea case

The greenhouse gases (GHGs) generated in municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration are carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O). In South Korea case, the total of GHGs from the waste incineration facilities has been increasing at an annual rate 10%. In these view, waste incineration facilities should consider to reduce GHG emissions.This study is designed to estimate the N₂O emission factors from MSW incineration plants, and calculate the N₂O emissions based on these factors. The three MSW incinerators examined in this study were either stoker or both stoker and rotary kiln facilities. The N₂O concentrations from the MSW incinerators were measured using gas chromatography-electron capture detection (GC-ECD) equipment.The average of the N₂O emission factors for the M01 plant, M02 plant, and M03 plant are 71, 75, and 153 g-N₂O/ton-waste, respectively. These results showed a significant difference from the default values of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), while approaching those values derived in Japan and Germany. Furthermore, comparing the results of this study to the Korea Energy Economics Institute (KEEI) (2007) data on waste incineration, N₂O emissions from MSW incineration comprised 19% of the total N₂O emissions.     

乌鲁木齐市非金属矿物制品业大气污染物排放清单与时空分布

基于乌鲁木齐市各类非金属矿物制品业的活动水平数据及其排放因子，建立了2015年乌鲁木齐市3种大气污染物的排放清单。2015年乌鲁木齐市非金属矿物制品业大气污染物NO_x、SO₂和PM_2.5的排放总量分别为1.17×10⁴ t、1.63×10⁴ t和8.35×10³ t。混凝土配料行业是NO_x和SO₂的主要排放源，占比分别为56.77%和71.72%；PM2.5的排放源主要是水泥（干法）行业，占比为70.23%。米东区是对NO_x、SO₂和PM_2.5排放量的最大贡献区域，头屯河区是NO_x和SO₂的第二大贡献区域，达坂城区是PM_2.5的第二大贡献区域。污染物在5~9月处于排放高峰期。蒙特卡罗法模拟结果表明，混凝土配料制品行业95%置信区间的不确定性最高，为-72%~157%。     

Spatially Disaggregated Inventories of Soil NO and N2O Emissions for Great Britain

Estimates of soil N₂O and NOemissions at regional and country scales arehighly uncertain, because the most widely usedmethodologies are based on few data, they do notinclude all sources and do not account forspatial and seasonal variability. To improveunderstanding of the spatial distribution of soilNO and N₂O emissions we have developedsimple multi-linear regression models based onpublished field studies from temperate climates.The models were applied to create spatialinventories at the 5 km² scale of soil NOand N₂O emissions for Great Britain. The N₂O regression model described soilN₂O emissions as a function of soil N input,soil water content, soil temperature and land useand provided an annual N₂O emission of 128 kt N₂O-N yr^-1. Emission rates largerthan 12 kg N₂O-N ha^-1 yr^-1 werecalculated for the high rainfall grassland areasin the west of Great Britain.Soil NO emissions were calculated using tworegression models, which described NO emissionsas a function of soil N input with and without afunction for the water filled pore space. Thetotal annual emissions from both methods, 66 and7 kt NO-N yr^-1, respectively, span the rangeof previous estimates for Great Britain.     

A Sensitivity Analysis of Ozone Formation to Ambient Air Composition by Means of Photochemical Models

The prediction of the atmospheric concentration of ozoneand of other photochemical pollutants represents one of themajor scientific challenges in the study of urban airquality. To this aim, photochemical models are widelyapplied as support tools for regulatory purposes, but theirresults are known to be affected by several uncertainties,in boundary conditions, geographical and meteorologicaldata and the chemical composition of emission and ambientair as well. Also the mechanism selected to describe theurban chemistry may lead to large differences in the modelresults. In this work, the influence of ambient air composition onthe results of photochemical model has been studied using a simple Lagrangian trajectory model coupled with different chemical sub-models (CB-IV and a simplified version of EMEP). To this aim a parametric sensitivity study of ozone with respect to its precursors' concentration was performed withreference to the same meteorological conditions and by simulatingdifferent scenarios characterized by specific emitted pollutantsconcentration. Rather than analyzing sensitivity by changing initial composition, an analytical local sensitivity concept has been applied; this allowed evaluation the influence of initial concentration on the predicted ozone concentration andto discriminate between VOC-sensitive and NOx-sensitive kineticregimes. Finally, these results have been successfully comparedwith those obtained applying the concept of photochemical indicators (i.e. O₃/NOy and H₂O₂/HNO₃ ratios).     

Emission Models and Inventories for Local Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment: Experience in the East Midlands Region of the Uk

This paper considers how regional greenhouse gas emissioninventories can be determined. It presents a greenhousegas emissions inventory, by source, for the East Midlandsthat has been compiled as part of a regional study intoclimate change impacts in the United Kingdom. This hasused available local data, and national emissions datawith appropriate scaling factors. Total greenhouse gasemissions for the region are estimated to be 59 milliontonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂ equivalent)for 1997. Of these emissions, approximately 86% werecarbon dioxide emissions, 7% methane emissions, and 5%were nitrous oxide, with emissions of hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride(SF₆) contributing less than 2% of total emissions.     

Carbon accounting for Japanese petrochemicals

This paper discusses two bottom-up models for the estimation of carbon storage and CO₂ emissions related to the nonenergy use of fossil energy carriers. The models show how material flow accounting can be applied to policy making. The nonenergy use emission accounting tables model is a static model, while the chemical industry environmental strategy assessment program (CHEAP) model is a dynamic model of the flows of synthetic organic materials. Both models provide detailed and more accurate estimates of carbon storage in materials than the accounting method that is currently used in the framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) guidelines. The results for both models suggest that carbon storage in synthetic organic materials has been overestimated, and consequently CO₂ emissions have been underestimated. Japanese CO₂ emissions in 1996 were at least 1.9% higher than reported previously. The CHEAP model results indicate that the net carbon storage (storage − emissions in waste incineration) will decrease during the next few decades. This decrease is mainly driven by changing waste management practice. Received: December 8, 2000 / Accepted: August 15, 2001     

Methane Emission Estimates from Landfills Obtained with Dynamic Plume Measurements

Methane emissions from 3 different landfills inthe Netherlands were estimated using a mobileTuneable Diode Laser system (TDL). The methaneconcentration in the cross section of the plumeis measured downwind of the source on a transectperpendicular to the wind direction. A gaussianplume model was used to simulate theconcentration levels at the transect. Theemission from the source is calculated from themeasured and modelled concentration levels.Calibration of the plume dispersion model isdone using a tracer (N₂O) that is releasedfrom the landfill and measured simultaneouslywith the TDL system. The emission estimates forthe different locations ranged from 3.6 to 16 m³ ha^-1 hr^-1 for the differentsites. The emission levels were compared toemission estimates based on the landfill gasproduction models. This comparison suggestsoxidation rates that are up to 50% in springand negligible in November. At one of the threesites measurements were performed in campaignsin 3 consecutive years. Comparison of theemission levels in the first and second yearshowed a reduction of the methane emission ofabout 50% due to implementation of a gasextraction system. From the second to the thirdyear emissions increased by a factor of 4 due tonew landfilling. Furthermore measurements wereperformed in winter when oxidation efficiencywas reduced. This paper describes themeasurement technique used, and discusses theresults of the experimental sessions that were performed.     

The effect of dust emissions from open storage piles to particle ambient concentration and human exposure

The current study focus on the determination of dust emissions from piles in open storage yards of a municipal solid waste (MSW) composting site and the subsequent atmospheric dust dispersion. The ISC3-ST (Industrial Source Complex Version 3 – Short Term) model was used for the evaluation of the PM₁₀ ambient concentrations associated with the dispersion of MSW compost dust emissions in air. Dust emission rates were calculated using the United States Environmental Protection Agency proposed dust resuspension formulation from open storage piles using local meteorological data. The dispersion modelling results on the spatial distribution of PM₁₀ source depletion showed that the maximum concentrations were observed at a distance 25–75 m downwind of the piles in the prevailing wind direction. Sensitivity calculations were performed also to reveal the effect of the compost pile height, the friction velocity and the receptor height on the ambient PM₁₀ concentration. It was observed that PM₁₀ concentrations (downwind in the prevailing wind direction) increased with increasing the friction velocity, increasing the pile height (for distances greater than 125 m from the source) and decreasing the receptor height (for distances greater than 125 m from the source). Furthermore, the results of ISC3-ST were analysed with the ExDoM (Exposure Dose Model) human exposure model. The ExDoM is a model for calculating the human exposure and the deposition dose, clearance, and finally retention of aerosol particles in the human respiratory tract (RT). PM₁₀ concentration at the composting site was calculated as the sum of the concentration from compost pile dust resuspension and the background concentration. It was found that the exposure to PM₁₀ and deposited lung dose for an adult Caucasian male who is not working at the composting site is less by 20–74% and 29–84%, respectively, compared to those for a worker exposed to PM concentrations at the composting site.