The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part II—Integrating impacts with adaptive capacity

In the first paper in this series [Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S., Martin, P., Meinke, H., Howden, S.M. (2010, this issue)], we concluded that hazard/impact modelling needs to be integrated with holistic measures of adaptive capacity in order to provide policy-relevant insights into the multiple and emergent dimensions of vulnerability. In this paper, we combine hazard/impact modelling with an holistic measure of adaptive capacity to analyse the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Bioeconomic modelling was used to model the exposure and sensitivity of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change. Rural livelihoods analysis was used as a conceptual framework to construct a composite index of adaptive capacity using farm survey data. We then show how this integrated measure of vulnerability provides policy-relevant insights into the constraints and options for building adaptive capacity in rural communities. In the process, we show that relying on hazard/impact modelling alone can lead to entirely erroneous conclusions about the vulnerability of rural communities, with potential to significantly misdirect policy intervention. We provide a preliminary assessment of which Australian rural communities are vulnerable to climate variability and change, and reveal a complex set of interacting environmental, economic and social factors contributing to vulnerability.     

Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States

Directly or indirectly, positively or negatively, climate change will affect all sectors and regions of the United States. The impacts, however, will not be homogenous across regions, sectors, population groups or time. The literature specifically related to how climate change will affect rural communities, their resilience, and adaptive capacity in the United States (U.S.) is scarce. This article bridges this knowledge gap through an extensive review of the current state of knowledge to make inferences about the rural communities vulnerability to climate change based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. Our analysis shows that rural communities tend to be more vulnerable than their urban counterparts due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, poverty incidence, and dependency on government funds. Climate change impacts on rural communities differs across regions and economic sectors; some will likely benefit while others lose. Rural communities engaged in agricultural and forest related activities in the Northeast might benefit, while those in the Southwest and Southeast could face additional water stress and increased energy cost respectively. Developing adaptation and mitigation policy options geared towards reducing climatic vulnerability of rural communities is warranted. A set of regional and local studies is needed to delineate climate change impacts across rural and urban communities, and to develop appropriate policies to mitigate these impacts. Integrating research across disciplines, strengthening research-policy linkages, integrating ecosystem services while undertaking resource valuation, and expanding alternative energy sources, might also enhance coping capacity of rural communities in face of future climate change.     

The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part I—Conceptualising and measuring vulnerability

Vulnerability is a term frequently used to describe the potential threat to rural communities posed by climate variability and change. Despite growing use of the term, analytical measures of vulnerability that are useful for prioritising and evaluating policy responses are yet to evolve. Demand for research capable of prioritising adaptation responses has evolved rapidly with an increasing awareness of climate change and its potential impacts on rural communities. Research into the climate-related vulnerability of Australian rural communities is only just beginning to emerge. Current research is dominated by hazard/impact modelling, drawing on a heritage of managing the risks posed by seasonal climate variability. There is a natural tendency to use the same risk management approach to understand the emergent nature of vulnerability. In this paper, we explore the consequences for policy advice of imperfectly examining vulnerability through the lens of an impact/hazard modelling approach to risk management. In a second paper in this series, we show how hazard/impact modelling can be complemented with more holistic measures of adaptive capacity to provide quantitative insights into the vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change.     

Igniting change in local government: lessons learned from a bushfire vulnerability assessment

Local governments and communities have a critical role to play in adapting to climate variability and change. Spatial vulnerability assessment is one tool that can facilitate engagement between researchers and local stakeholders through the visualisation of climate vulnerability and the integration of its biophysical and socio-economic determinants. This has been demonstrated through a case study from Sydney, Australia where a bushfire vulnerability assessment was undertaken as the first-step in a project to investigate local government perceptions of climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity. A series of relevant biophysical and socio-economic indicators was identified that represented the region’s exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity with respect to bushfires. These indicators were then combined to develop maps of net landscape vulnerability to bushfire. When presented in a workshop setting, vulnerability maps were successful in capturing the attention of stakeholders while simultaneously conveying information regarding the diversity of drivers that can contribute to current and future vulnerability. However, stakeholders were reluctant to embrace representations of vulnerability that differed from their own understanding of hazard, necessitating the demonstration of agreement between the vulnerability assessment and more conventional hazard assessment tools. This validation opened the door for public dissemination of vulnerability maps, the uptake and use of the assessment in local government risk assessment and adaptation planning, and more focused case-studies on barriers to adaptation.     

Mitigating Natural Disasters: The Role Of Eco-Ethics

Natural disasters are complex phenomena, the causes of which lie to a large extent in human behavior that creates vulnerable communities. In order to reduce vulnerability and thereby mitigate the risk of disasters, it is important to consider underlying values, particularly with respect to how people view and interact with the natural world. Advancing an interdisciplinary, ecological paradigm, this paper argues that disaster mitigation needs to be addressed through a process that results in a greater emphasis on our interactions with and reliance upon the natural world, and the development of community resilience.     

Climate Change Daaptational Deficiencies in Developing Countries: the Case of Sub-Saharan Africa

Adaptation is nowrecognized as an inevitable component ofthe overall climate change responsestrategy. For a developing region likesub-Saharan Africa with low greenhouse gasemissions and high vulnerability to theimpacts of climate change, the importanceof adaptation in climate change policy iseven more fundamental. This paper examined alook at the adaptational preparedness ofthe sub-Saharan African region to climatechange. Clearly evident in theenvironmental strategy and developmentfocus of these countries is lack ofrecognition of the need to adapt, poorincentive to adapt and low capacity toadapt to climate change. This furtherexacerbates their vulnerability and hasimplications for the global climate changeresponse strategy. Unfortunately, fewattempts have been made to understand thestructural reasons underlying the pervasivepattern of adaptational unpreparedness inthe region, neither has there been acomprehensive and systematic analysis ofhow to remedy this problem. This paper is acontribution in this regard. It alsohighlights the factors to whichinternational community need to payattention, if it truly wishes to make itsefforts at adaptation more global inscope.     

The role of fish and fisheries in recovering from natural hazards: Lessons learned from Vanuatu

Coastal fisheries provide staple food and sources of livelihood in Pacific Island countries, and securing a sustainable supply is recognised as a critical priority for nutrition security. This study sought to better understand the role of fish for Pacific Island communities during disasters and in disaster recovery. To evaluate community impacts and responses after natural disasters, focus group discussions were held with men and women groups at ten sites across Shefa, Tafea, Malampa and Sanma provinces in Vanuatu. The combined impacts of category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam (TC-Pam) in March 2015 and prolonged El-Niño induced drought have had a profound impact across much of Vanuatu. Terrestrial systems had been disproportionately impacted with substantial shortages in drinking water, garden crops, cash crops and damage to infrastructure. Localized impacts were noted on marine environments from TC-Pam and the drought, along with an earthquake that uplifted reef and destroyed fishing grounds in Malampa province. Communities in Malampa and Shefa provinces also noted a crown-of-thorns outbreak that caused coral mortality. The significant reduction in terrestrial-based food and income generation capacity generally led to increased reliance on marine resources to cope and a shift in diets from local garden food to rice. However, limited market access, lack of fishing skills and technology in many sectors of the community reduced the capacity for marine resources to support recovery. A flexible management approach allowed protected areas and species to be utilized as reservoirs of food and income when temporarily opened to assist recovery. These findings illustrate that fish and fisheries management is at the center of disaster preparedness and relief strategies in remote Pacific Island communities. High physical capital (e.g. infrastructure, water tanks and strong dwellings) is key for disaster preparedness, but supporting community social capital for the purpose of natural resource management and human capital for diverse adaptation skills can also improve community resilience. Recognizing the humanitarian value that well managed fisheries resources and skilled fishers can play to disaster relief adds another dimension to the imperative of improving management of coastal fisheries and aligning policies across sectors.     

The value of indigenous knowledge in climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies in the African Sahel

Past global efforts at dealing with the problem of global warming concentrated on mitigation, with the aim of reducing and possibly stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere. With the slow progress in achieving this, adaptation was viewed as a viable option to reduce the vulnerability to the anticipated negative impacts of global warming. It is increasingly realized that mitigation and adaptation should not be pursued independent of each other but as complements. This has resulted in the recent calls for the integration of adaptation into mitigation strategies. However, integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate change concerns is not a completely new idea in the African Sahel. The region is characterized by severe and frequent droughts with records dating back into centuries. The local populations in this region, through their indigenous knowledge systems, have developed and implemented extensive mitigation and adaptation strategies that have enabled them reduce their vulnerability to past climate variability and change, which exceed those predicted by models of future climate change. However, this knowledge is rarely taken into consideration in the design and implementation of modern mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper highlights some indigenous mitigation and adaptation strategies that have been practiced in the Sahel, and the benefits of integrating indigenous knowledge into formal climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Incorporating indigenous knowledge can add value to the development of sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies that are rich in local content, and planned in conjunction with local people.     

旅游社区安全:概念及研究述评

全域旅游的兴起使得旅游社区及其安全问题日益重要,然而学术界尚未建立起旅游社区安全研究体系。旅游社区安全是以旅游为主业的社区内部协调稳定,外部健康存续,旅游业持续发展的一种状态,内涵丰富,类型多样。当前学术界主要是从旅游社区脆弱性、恢复力以及可持续发展等角度入手进行该论题的研究,且多是从目的地视角出发,并未突出社区的独立性。未来的旅游社区安全研究应首先构建起独立的研究体系,并在与国外进行比较研究的基础上,强调多样性和适宜性的研究方法和路径。     

Mapping social vulnerability to natural hazards in Italy: A suitable tool for risk mitigation strategies

Italy is one of the European countries that are most heavily exposed to a wide range of natural hazards, which might cause large economic losses. In this context, the assessment of social vulnerability has an important role for evaluating the capacity of a community to prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters. However there are currently no published studies analysing social vulnerability and its spatial distribution in Italy. Within this framework, this paper aims to apply a proven method for assessing social vulnerability at the national scale, while considering the contribution of the socioeconomic and demographic factors that affect the Italian population. The proposed methodology is based on the Hazard-of-Place Model approach, and uses free and open source software applications (FOSS). Specifically, we selected significant components through Principal Component Analysis and derived their spatial distribution. Using component scores, we derived a social vulnerability index, evaluated its geographic distribution, and performed a cluster analysis on its spatial variation. The analysis identified different spatial patterns across Italy, providing useful information for identifying the communities most likely to experience negative natural disaster impacts due to their socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. This research represents an important contribution to improve the potentiality of risk mitigation strategies and in designing risk custom-made policies.     

Improving flood risk analysis for effectively supporting the implementation of flood risk management plans: The case study of “Serio” Valley

The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the assessment and delineation of flood risk maps. The latter should provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs), that should deal with all features of risk management: e.g. preparation, protection and prevention, comprising also the phase of the flood forecasting and warning systems, in addition to the emergency management. The risk maps, delineated through the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, fail to represent the information base that needed by stakeholders for selecting the suitable objectives and designing the appropriate mitigation actions for flood risk management. In the EDQ approach, the flood hazard and the potential damage degree maps are combined by means of a matrix to obtain a qualitative flood risk map. However, the performance of the risk matrix is not usually rigorous validated and, therefore, presents limits, such as subjective and not careful explained interpretation of rating and poor resolution, (due to range compression), that can produce errors in comparative ranking of risk areas. In this context, this paper proposes the FloodRisk approach that aims to improve the efficacy of flood risk map overcoming the limits of EDQ approach in supplying the knowledge base that allow to analyze costs and benefits of potential mitigation measures. However, the proposed approach is also able to involve the citizens in the flood management process, enhancing their awareness. An application of FloodRisk procedure is showed on a pilot case in “Serio” Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been discussed focusing on the efficacy of the outcomes provided for the fulfillment of FRMPs. The results have demonstrated the ability of FloodRisk, respect to EDQ approach, to distinguish successfully different levels of vulnerability of exposure elements, thanks to the use of asset value and depth-damage curves, that allows a suitably evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. In this light, a successfully application of a cost-benefit analysis of FloodRisk approach on a portfolio of alternative mitigation actions, (i.e. structural and non-structural measurements), has been demonstrated on the proposed study case. However, FloodRisk requires additional information, e.g. water depths assessment and assets values, and it needs a proper analysis and communication of the uncertainty in its results. Although they still exist limitations that impede, at present, the FloodRisk application without an adequate understanding and a critical consideration of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability characteristics of the study area, considerations are supplied on how the utilization of this approach can be maximized in the light of the next flood risk maps revision due by December 2019.     

Climate change and Ontario forests: Prospects for building institutional adaptive capacity

Institutions play an important role in the adaptive capacity of a system in responding to climate change. This review paper characterizes the status of the collective institutional response (government, industry, First Nation, community, civil society) to climate change in the forest sector of the Canadian province of Ontario, and highlights the presence and nature of inter-institutional networks as part of the response. Based on a synthesis of the commonalities in the public administration and policy literature on tackling wicked problems, and the resilience literature, inter-institutional networks, which foster exchange of different types of knowledge, are an important aspect of enhancing the adaptive capacity of social–ecological systems such as the forest sector. Based on a content analysis of publicly available documents and insights gained from representatives of government, community members and non-governmental organizations, mitigation and adaptations strategies are described. At the provincial level there have been some new innovations in inter-institutional networks, but expansion of the forest stakeholders involved in such networks would further enhance adaptive capacity. In particular, it is important to network with First Nations and other forest-dependent communities who have a heightened vulnerability to climate change. The presence of a collaborative capacity builder could foster the transfer, receipt and integration of knowledge across the networks, and ultimately build long-term collaborative problem-solving capacity in the Ontario forest sector.

Combining hazard,exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management

Flood risk assessments provide inputs for the evaluation of flood risk management (FRM) strategies. Traditionally, such risk assessments provide estimates of loss of life and economic damage. However, the effect of policy measures aimed at reducing risk also depends on the capacity of households to adapt and respond to floods, which in turn largely depends on their social vulnerability. This study shows how a joint assessment of hazard, exposure and social vulnerability provides valuable information for the evaluation of FRM strategies. The adopted methodology uses data on hazard and exposure combined with a social vulnerability index. The relevance of this state-of-the-art approach taken is exemplified in a case-study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The results show that not only a substantial share of the population can be defined as socially vulnerable, but also that the population is very heterogeneous, which is often ignored in traditional flood risk management studies. It is concluded that FRM measures, such as individual mitigation, evacuation or flood insurance coverage should not be applied homogenously across large areas, but instead should be tailored to local characteristics based on the socioeconomic characteristics of individual households and neighborhoods.     

Land use and climate change adaptation strategies in Kenya

Climate variability and change mitigation and adaptation policies need to prioritize land users needs at local level because it is at this level that impact is felt most. In order to address the challenge of socio-economic and unique regional geographical setting, a customized methodological framework was developed for application in assessment of climate change vulnerability perception and adaptation options around the East African region. Indicators of climate change and variability most appropriate for the region were derived from focused discussions involving key informants in various sectors of the economy drawn from three East African countries. Using these indicators, a structured questionnaire was developed from which surveys and interviews were done on selected sample of target population of farming communities in the Mt. Kenya region. The key highlights of the questionnaire were vulnerability and adaptation. Data obtained from respondents was standardized and subjected to multivariate and ANOVA analysis. Based on principle component analysis (PCA), two main vulnerability categories were identified namely the social and the bio-physical vulnerability indicators. Analysis of variance using Kruskal-Wallis test showed significant statistical variation (P ≤ 0.05) in the perceived vulnerability across the spatial distribution of the 198 respondents. Three insights were distinguished and were discernible by agro-ecological zones. Different vulnerability profiles and adaptive capacity profiles were generated demonstrating the need for prioritizing adaptation and mitigation efforts at local level. There was a high correlation between the bio-physical and social factor/livelihood variables that were assessed.     

Analyzing flood risk and related impacts to urban communities in central Vietnam

This study aims at understanding flood risks and their impact on a community, in order to enhance communities’ resilience and adaptive capacity to these threats. It also investigates the possibility of looking at and handling risk from a resilience point of view. Therefore, while a conventional risk management process is employed in this study, social, physical, economic, and institutional dimensions of resilience are also included in order to grasp the extent of risks and the ways in which communities face, cope with, and recover from flooding. Findings showed that there was no significant difference in the perception of flood risk among household heads educated up to secondary school level, suggesting that they believe floods are purely natural events. Those with a higher level of education (high school and above) (82.7 % of respondents) were aware that flood disasters are the result of hazard and vulnerability combined. In addition, social dynamics were apparently strengthened by such disasters, which resulted in cohesion and mutual help following floods in some wards. Also, households with more sources of income and more savings appear to recover faster than others after a flooding event. With regard to governance and networks, greater efforts have to be made by local institutions to ensure basic functioning during and after disaster events and to invest more into risk reduction activities. However, further studies need to be conducted to clarify the understanding of the impact flood disasters have on the environment and community lives and livelihoods in general, as traditional coping strategies, although still practical, no longer suffice in the face of changes in climate and environment.     

Adaptation Options Strategies for Hazards and Vulnerability Mitigation: An International Perspective

The broad objective of this special issue of Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change is to address some of the gaps in our knowledge and understanding of the policies, programs, and measures that might be applied to natural hazards and their impacts in an era of climate change. Given the global impacts of climate change and world-wide pattern of increasing losses from natural hazards we necessarily adopt an international perspective. The specific goals of the special issue are to: (a) encompass experiential aspects, emphasizing current practice of mitigation and its associated measures, and their results; and (b) explore primary or root causes of alarming shifts in human and economic costs of environmental extremes. Special emphasis is placed on how human activities are playing a key role in enhancing vulnerability to NTEE (nature-triggered environmental extremes), quite independently from the anthropogenic causes of climate change. The goals are also (c) to examine costs, risks, and benefits (of all kinds including social, political, ecological) of mitigation, and adjustment and adaptation measures; and (d) analyze policy implications of alternative measures. These components are expected to make significant contributions to policy considerations – formulation, implementation and evaluation. There is much uncertainty about the rate of climate change; however, the fact of increase of the atmospheric temperature in the last century is no longer a subject of scientific or policy debate. Due to such changes in the geophysical parameters, certain types of nature-triggered environmental extreme events are likely to continue to increase. How global warming will affect regional climates and pertinent variables is not well known, limiting our ability to predict consequential effects. This factor poses serious constraints against any straightforward policy decisions. Research findings of the work of this volume reaffirm that human dimensions, specifically our awareness and decision-making behavior, are powerful explanatory factors of increasing disaster losses. Disaster mitigation through addressing human, social, and physical vulnerability is one of the best means for contributing to ‘climate change adaptation plans’, and sustainable development goals. Recent lessons from various countries have depicted that the formulation of mitigation strategies cannot be exclusively top-down as it requires social, political, and cultural acceptance and sense of ownership. An interactive, participatory process, involving local communities, produces best expected outcomes concerning mitigation, preparedness, and recovery. An emerging consensus is that there is a need to move towards the ‘mission’ of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction which aims at building disaster resilient communities by promoting increased awareness of the importance of disaster reduction as an integral component of sustainable development, with the goal of reducing human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters. Sharing of best practices and lessons globally is certain to produce more efficiency and understanding in policy and decision making.     

山地城市灾害系统模糊风险评价

灾害风险是当前灾害研究的热点和核心之一。从灾害系统整体角度,厘定区域灾害系统风险,明晰灾害系统风险要素构成及其作用机制,对于科学指导区域综合防灾减灾具有重要意义。在山地城市灾害系统研究的基础上,基于"R=H×E×S/C"的灾害系统模糊风险概念模型,构建了反映山地城市灾害系统"致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、灾损敏感性和防灾减灾能力"四个方面的"山地城市灾害系统模糊风险评价指标体系";提出了对山地城市灾害系统模糊风险进行定量评价与排序的"综合赋权(AHP-EVM)"二级模糊综合评判模型。在上述研究基础上,以重庆市38个区县作为研究对象,对理论模型进行了实证研究,并从整体上初步阐明和解释了山地城市(重庆市)38个区县的灾害系统模糊风险等级及成因。研究得出以下结论:(1)基于"综合赋权"模糊综合评判的"山地城市灾害系统模糊风险"评价结果科学、可靠,能够从整体反映山地城市灾害系统模糊风险水平及其构成。经过与灾情数据对比、专家评判,本研究所得评价结果通过验证,且与"模糊物元评价"所得结果基本一致。(2)重庆市灾害系统模糊风险整体水平居中。其中,渝中区、江北区,渝东北的城口县、奉节县以及渝东南的酉阳县,灾害系统风险等级高,各类灾害发生及造成损失的可能性较大,是未来防灾减灾工作的重点。     

河流水环境污染风险模糊综合评价模型

综合考虑水环境污染的脆弱性和受污染水体对人体健康的危害性, 建立了河流水环污染风险模糊综合评价模型.运用模糊语言,将脆弱性和危害性均分为6个等级,并根据F统计法和专家咨询法确定脆弱性和危害性的模糊隶属函数.由模糊综合评价得出河流水环境污染的风险水平.将该评价模型应用到湘江14个断面的水环境风险评价中,直观地表达各个断面污染风险水平,为湘江水资源管理和优先控制断面的选取提供新思路和新方法.     

陕西省区域性自然灾害脆弱性评价研究

自然灾害脆弱性评价研究对于提高区域防灾减灾能力具有重要现实意义。以陕西省10市1区为例,选取6个子系统29项指标,运用均方差赋权法对陕西区域性自然灾害脆弱性进行评价研究。结果表明:自然条件、经济和基础设施3个子系统是影响陕西省区域性自然灾害脆弱性的主要因素;经济、社会和基础设施等因素是区域应灾能力的重要表现,直接影响着区域自然灾害脆弱性的高低;陕西省区域性自然灾害脆弱性具有显著的时空分布特征,关中平原及陕南秦巴山区各地级市、区自然灾害脆弱性高于陕北地区。     

Differential Impacts of Flood Hazards Among the Street Children,the Urban Poor and Residents of Wealthy Neighborhoods in Metro Manila,Philippines

This paper presents thedifferential impacts of flood hazards amongstreet children, the urban poor andresidents of wealthy neighborhoods in MetroManila, Philippines. It argues that beingpoor is not the only reason why certainsectors are more vulnerable to floods orany environmental hazards – spatialisolation and lack of participation indecision making intensify their presentand future vulnerability, as well. Archival research, interviews, focusedgroup discussion, participant observationand surveys of populations at risk areemployed to delineate the flood experiencesand coping strategies of street childrenand residents of poor urban settlements andwealthy neighborhoods in Metro Manila atthe household and community levels. Theconcept of entitlement, the ContextualHazards Model, and the Access Model areused in the data analysis andinterpretation. Several policyrecommendations on hazard management anddisaster mitigation are identified toreduce flood losses in Metro Manila.