Buying price of event information in two-action decision problems

Being able to determine in advance whether certain events occur or not enables a decision maker to reduce the uncertainty of a two-action lottery, although the exact outcome of the lottery may still not be known with certainty. This paper studies the á priori value of information in such a decision making environment. Of interest to the decision maker is to compare the value of information about different events in advance of gathering the information. Using buying price as value of information, we show that when information about the occurrence of two different events are offered to a risk neutral decision maker, the event with a greater contribution in absolute value to the expected value of the lottery has higher value in terms of its buying price. For risk averse decision makers, a preference condition needs to be imposed on the set difference of two events to obtain a generic conclusion. We provide several examples that demonstrate the usefulness of these results.     

Value of intelligence applied to networks

A methodology is proposed to complement the subjective “value” of intelligence with an objective metric of “impact” of information on network models. This is a deterministic one-way sensitivity analysis similar to value of information used in inference diagrams. It would measure the impact of a piece of information on a network’s metric, in this case being used to answer intelligence analyst questions. This methodology suggests that the sensitivity of each link to existing analysis implies that the link has an impact on the analysis. The impact of these links can be measured quantitatively. In this paper, we explore data of tweets and apply the methodology to the links between twitter users and use the network measure of betweenness centrality to determine their quantitative impact on the overall network.     

Farmers’ risk preference and the adoption of risk management strategies in Northern Ghana

The study used the hypothetical lottery-choice questions to measure risk aversion and a detailed survey collected data on input use, farm production and non-farm activities to specifically assess whether risk aversion, risk perceptions, and socioeconomic factors affect the risk management strategies of farm households in Northern Ghana. Risk aversion significantly increases crop diversification strategies of households but marginally reduces herbicide use by households. Market risk significantly increases the use of improved seed varieties and the application of inorganic fertiliser but reduces diversification into livestock production. Production risk largely increases diversification into livestock production. Farmers’ risk management strategies are affected by socioeconomic variables such as access to extension services, area cultivated, age and gender. Policy effort focused on building pliable on-farm crop related risk management strategies should aim at considering the risk aversion and the perception of market risk whilst those focused on livestock should focus on production risk.     

Risk aversion and compliance in markets for pollution control

This paper examines the effects of risk aversion on compliance choices in markets for pollution control. A firm's decision to be compliant or not is independent of its manager's risk preference. However, non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers will have lower violations than otherwise identical firms with risk-neutral managers. The violations of non-compliant firms with risk-averse managers are independent of differences in their profit functions and their initial allocations of permits if and only if their managers' utility functions exhibit constant absolute risk aversion. However, firm-level characteristics do impact violation choices when managers have coefficients of absolute risk aversion that are increasing or decreasing in profit levels. Finally, in the equilibrium of a market for emissions rights with widespread non-compliance, risk aversion is associated with higher permit prices, better environmental quality, and lower aggregate violations.     

Simultaneous adoption of integrated soil fertility management technologies in the Chinyanja Triangle,Southern Africa

Empirical scientific evidence indicates that there is still room for increasing food production by improving land productivity. This study aimed at identifying the key determinants that govern farmers’ decisions to adopt multiple components of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) in a maize mixed cropping system of the Chinyanja Triangle, Southern Africa. Revealed preferences of ISFM components were collected from 320 randomly selected households and multivariate probit (MVP) model was used to analyse the simultaneous effects on adoption based on biophysical plot and household‐level socioeconomic attributes. The results show that farmers’ choices of a set of ISFM components are determined by a mix of factors that address the trade‐offs and synergies among them. Non‐farm income, moderate land quality perception, and education influence simultaneous technology adoption, while gender and crop loss increase the likelihood of farmers’ decisions to adopt independent options. Having other sources of income supports co‐adoption of inorganic fertilizer, residue incorporation, and crop rotation. Input/output market access, access to information, financial sources, and climate variability also play pivotal role in technology adoption. These results indicate that resource availability, learning costs, finances, and risk aversion need to be considered when designing and promoting ISFM technologies as a package.     

Near-miss events,risk messages,and decision making

Decades of research have sought to understand how disaster preparedness decisions are made. We believe one understudied factor is the impact of near-miss events. A near-miss occurs when an event (such as a hurricane or terrorist attack) has some non-trivial probability of ending in disaster (loss of life, property damage), but the negative outcome is avoided largely by chance (e.g., at the last minute, the storm dissipates or the bomb fails to detonate). In the first of two experiments, we study reactions to a hurricane threat when participants are told about prior near-miss events. We find that people with information about a prior near-miss event that has no negative consequences are less likely to take protective measures than those with either no information or information about a prior near-miss event that has salient negative information. Similar results have been shown in prior research, but we seek to understand people’s reasoning for the different reactions. We examine the role of an individual’s risk propensity and general level of optimism as possible explanatory variables for the “near-miss” effect. We find risk propensity to be stable across conditions, whereas general optimism is influenced by the type of prior near-miss information, so that optimism mediates how near-miss information impacts protective decisions. People who experience a potentially hazardous near-miss but escape without obvious cues of damage will feel more optimistic and take less protective action. In the second study, we test messages about the hazard’s risk and examine the impact of these messages to offset the influence of near-misses. We end by discussing the implications of near-misses for risk communication.     

An Assessment of Ecosystem Risks in the St. Croix National Scenic Riverway

The information needed for conducting the risk assessment was provided by the participants in a 2-day workshop. The invited participants, who possessed knowledge of the St. Croix ecosystem, identified through a group-consensus process a list of stressors and a list of ecosystem values. They then assigned numerical values to each stressor-ecosystem value pair that reflected the degree to which the given stressor contributes to ecosystem risk as measured by the given ecosystem value. Based on this information, the analytical portion of the methodology was then used to rank the ecosystem risks (stressors) when examined from several different perspectives: immediate impact, time-duration, and management activities. Regardless of the perspective taken, riverway development emerged as the most significant stressor.     

A Risk-Based Approach to Evaluating Wildlife Demographics for Management in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of the Lewis’s Woodpecker

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a species’ response to climate into conservation decisions. This is shown by taking advantage of species’ response (i.e., impact) models that have been developed for a well-studied bird species of conservation concern. Specifically, we examine the current and potential impact of climate on nest survival of the Lewis’s Woodpecker (Melanerpes lewis) in two different habitats. To address climate uncertainty, climate scenarios are developed by manipulating historical weather observations to create ensembles (i.e., multiple sequences of daily weather) that reflect historical variability and potential climate change. These ensembles allow for a probabilistic evaluation of the risk posed to Lewis’s Woodpecker nest survival and are used in two demographic analyses. First, the relative value of each habitat is compared in terms of nest survival, and second, the likelihood of exceeding a critical population threshold is examined. By embedding the analyses in a risk framework, we show how management choices can be made to be commensurate with a defined level of acceptable risk. The results can be used to inform habitat prioritization and are discussed in the context of an economic framework for evaluating trade-offs between management alternatives.     

Learning-by-catching: uncertain invasive-species populations and the value of information

This paper develops a model of invasive species control when the species’ population size is unknown. In the face of an uncertain population size, a resource manager's species-control efforts provide two potential benefits: (1) a direct benefit of possibly reducing the population of invasive species, and (2) an indirect benefit of information acquisition (due to learning about the population size, which reduces uncertainty). We provide a methodology that takes into account both of these benefits, and show how optimal management decisions are altered in the presence of the indirect benefit of learning. We then apply this methodology to the case of controlling the Brown Treesnake (Boiga irregularis) on the island of Saipan. We find that the indirect benefit—the value of information to reduce uncertainty—is likely to be quite large.     

Improving corporate environmental performance through economic value added

These days, corporate annual reports are full of references to shareholder wealth creation. In today's highly competitive capital markets, most chief executives understand that unless they are seen as value creators, investors will place their scarce capital somewhere else. Clear evidence of the growing importance, even dominance, of shareholder wealth creation is the growing use of a performance measure known as economic value added (EVA®).¹ Within ten years, it is almost certain that most large, publicly traded companies in the United States will be using EVA or something like it as a primary performance evaluation tool. Recently, many non-American companies have also adopted it to better align the incentives of managers with shareholders and to signal their commitment to value creation. EVA is not widely known or understood among environmental specialists, and those who have heard about it often fear it. We find this attitude unfortunate. In this article, we discuss EVA and how its use can aid corporate environmental managers in promoting more proactive environmental investments, and in funding capital investments on environmental improvement, waste reduction, and pollution control in their companies. The use of EVA and other shareholder value measures can also improve general capital investment decisions by integrating environmental factors that affect the long-term interests of the corporation into the managerial decision-making process.     

我国开发性金融部门绿色投资价值的气候影响和风险研究

为应对气候变化,我国开发性金融部门探索绿色投资倒逼其低碳转型之路,相应的气候变化对其绿色投资的影响和风险值得深入研究。运用气候压力测试模型、WITCH模型和气候VaR对我国开发性金融机构绿色投资的气候冲击影响、气候风险进行实证研究。研究发现,极端气候冲击会对我国的开发性金融机构的投资价值及其投资表现产生负面影响;我国开发性金融机构绿色债券的票面利率受气候变化影响程度各异,国家开发银行随着气温的上升而增加,中国农业发展银行随着气温的下降而减少;我国开发性金融机构绿色投资气候风险各异,中国农业发展银行绿色投资的气候风险相对较大。研究成果为我国开发性金融部门应对气候变化的低碳转型和绿色投资的风险管理提供决策参考。     

基于PLC的冷却系统自整定模糊控制研究

在机载产品地面试验过程中需要为其提供相应的冷却环境,可在受试产品发生改变时,制冷设备在传统控制算法下往往无法维持较为理想的控制结果,需要重新人工整定控制参数。为解决此问题,研究了基于PLC的冷却系统自整定模糊控制方法,该方法可在PLC内编写系统参数累加辨识程序,从而计算得到系统的模型参数以及初始控制参数,再通过模糊控制器对该参数进行实时整定。试验表明该控制方法可以对系统参数进行自动辨识,辨识结果能够反映模拟负载的功率变化趋势,控制结果无明显超调及稳态误差。将该方法应用于液冷机组,可以在被冷却对象发生较大变化时重新辨识控制器参数,免去人工进行参数调试的工序,加强了设备的通用性,获得良好的控制结果。     

A Rapid Decision-Making Method for the Evaluationof Pollution-Sensitive Coastal Areas in the Mediterranean Sea

Places of natural beauty and/or cultural value in the Mediterranean Sea are presenting adverse effects due to pollution. These environmental threats caused by point and nonpoint sources are mainly the reason why these areas represent “pollution-sensitive areas,” where the risk of deterioration is immediate. However, the risk will decrease and eventually disappear if protective measures are applied. In the present article, a multicriteria decision-making method is proposed for the prioritization of the Mediterranean sensitive coastal areas, taking into consideration criteria of pollution risk such as impact on human health, aquatic ecosystems, and socioeconomic value of the area. Weighting factors were then attributed to the different criteria according to their regional priorities, and a total pollution risk score was calculated for every sensitive area. However, some sensitive areas are more vulnerable than others because of their natural characteristics. Therefore, the total pollution risk score was then multiplied by a vulnerability weighting factor and a Total Sensitivity Score was calculated for every sensitive area. With this method, Mediterranean sensitive areas in coastal zones can be ranked on a priority list and then categorized according to their “sensitivity,” in a way that decision-makers can select the most urgent cases to direct their attention for the effective protection of the Mediterranean marine environment. The method is rapid and practicable and has already been used with existing data and information in several Mediterranean countries.     

Field Deaths in Plant Agriculture

We know that animals are harmed in plant production. Unfortunately, though, we know very little about the scale of the problem. This matters for two reasons. First, we can’t decide how many resources to devote to the problem without a better sense of its scope. Second, this information shortage throws a wrench in arguments for veganism, since it’s always possible that a diet that contains animal products is complicit in fewer deaths than a diet that avoids them. In this paper, then, we have two aims: first, we want to collect and analyze all the available information about animal death associated with plant agriculture; second, we try to show just how difficult it’s to come up with a plausible estimate of how many animals are killed by plant agriculture, and not just because of a lack of empirical information. Additionally, we show that there are significant philosophical questions associated with interpreting the available data—questions such that different answers generate dramatically different estimates of the scope of the problem. Finally, we document current trends in plant agriculture that cause little or no collateral harm to animals, trends which suggest that field animal deaths are a historically contingent problem that in future may be reduced or eliminated altogether.     

基于价值创造视角的公司水风险管理研究

随着全球水资源供应不确定性与需求竞争性的加剧,水资源问题已从单纯的环境问题转化为经济问题,水风险逐渐与商业风险挂钩,公司面临的水风险不断上升。公司面临着物理风险、监管风险和声誉风险等水风险,公司水价值体现在业务连续性、经营牌照、声誉与品牌价值和创新价值等无形资产中。水风险与水价值二者相互联系又相互影响,通过公司水价值与水风险评估框架,了解区分水价值的不同方法,明确风险和不确定性如何影响水的价值,并利用水工具评估和管理公司所面临的水风险以及水对公司价值的影响,帮助公司化解其所面临的水风险,实现从公司水风险管理到价值创造的转变。     

Hierarchical modeling of seed variety yields and decision making for future planting plans

Eradicating hunger and malnutrition is a key development goal of the twenty first century. This paper addresses the problem of optimally identifying seed varieties to reliably increase crop yield within a risk-sensitive decision making framework. Specifically, a novel hierarchical machine learning mechanism for predicting crop yield (the yield of different seed varieties of the same crop) is introduced. This prediction mechanism is then integrated with a weather forecasting model and three different approaches for decision making under uncertainty to select seed varieties for planting so as to balance yield maximization and risk. The model was applied to the problem of soybean variety selection given in the 2016 Syngenta Crop Challenge. The prediction model achieved a median absolute error of 235 kg/ha and thus provides good estimates for input into the decision models. The decision models identified the selection of soybean varieties that appropriately balance yield and risk as a function of the farmer’s risk aversion level. More generally, the models can support farmers in decision making about which seed varieties to plant.     

Licensing resource tracts : A comparison of auction and discretionary systems

This paper uses simulations of a model of a company's decision about the maximum bid value and the optimal investment programme for a resource tract to compare the auction and discretionary systems of licence allocation. The modle includes uncertainty about the size of resource stock and the selling price of extracted resource, as well as risk aversion on the part of the company. It is concluded that an auction system provides the government both with better information about a company's perception of the value of a resource tract and with the potential for considerably higher revenue from its licensing.     

Mediating an invisible policy problem: Nottingham’s rejection of congestion charging

ABSTRACT

This paper presents a qualitative case study of community participation in local air quality management in Nottingham (UK). We analyse Nottingham’s response to a “clean air zone” mandate: despite national government and local community support of this congestion charging policy, the City Council rejected the measure. We focus on the policy framing, with data from policy documents, interviews with government and non-government actors, and observation in local activities. We found that community groups build links with local government in two ways: (1) as a coalition against the national government and austerity measures, and (2) as “neutral”, non-expert communicators of air pollution as an “invisible” policy problem. We show how this invisibility plays a significant role in factors such as trust, risk, responsibility, and policy communication. This research has theoretical implications for the communication of air pollution and practical implications for cities looking to implement similar transport-oriented strategies.     

Farmers’ Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta,Vietnam

Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers’ lives. Farmers’ perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers’ perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers’ perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family’s lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government’s, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.     

The Impact of Scientific Information on Ecosystem Management: Making Sense of the Contextual Gap Between Information Providers and Decision Makers

Scientific information is not always effectively incorporated into decision-making processes. This phenomenon seems to hold even when the information is aligned with an articulated need, is generated according to sound scientific procedures, and is packaged with end-user preferences in mind. We propose that contextual or cultural differences contribute significantly to the misalignment in communication between those who generate information and those who seek information for improved management of natural resources. The solution is to cultivate shared understanding, which in turn relies on acknowledgment and sharing of diverse values and attitudes. This constitutes a difficult challenge in a culturally diverse environment. Whereas cultural diversity represents wealth in experiences, knowledge and perspectives it can constrain the potential to develop the shared understandings necessary for effective integration of new information. This article illustrates how a lack of shared understanding among participants engaged in a resource-management process can produce and perpetuate divergent views of the world, to the extent that information and knowledge flows are ineffective and scientific information, even when requested, cannot be used effectively. Four themes were distilled from interviews with management and scientific staff of a natural resource–management agency in South Africa. The themes are used to illustrate how divergent views embedded in different cultures can discourage alignment of effort toward a common purpose. The article then presents a sense-making framework to illustrate the potential for developing shared understandings in a culturally diverse world.