Extinction risk to bird populations caused by DDT exposure

The impact of toxic chemicals on wild animals and plants can be quantified in terms of the enhanced risk of population extinction. To illustrate a method for doing this, we estimated such impact for two bird species: herring gull (Larus argentatus) in Long Island, NY, and sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) in eastern England, when they were exposed to DDT (p,p(')-dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane) and its metabolites (called DDTs). The method we used is based on a formula of the mean time to population extinction derived for a stochastic differential equation (the canonical model). The intrinsic rate of natural population growth was estimated from an exponentially growing population, and the intensity of the environmental fluctuation was estimated from the magnitude of population size fluctuation. The effect of exposure to DDTs in reducing the population growth rate was evaluated based on an age-structured population model, by assuming that age-specific fertility is density-dependent and sensitive to DDTs exposure, but age-specific survivorship is not. The results are expressed in terms of the risk equivalent--the decrease in carrying capacity K that causes the same enhancement of extinction risk as chemical exposure at a given level. The risk equivalent can be used in mitigation banking.     

Assessing the inhalation cancer risk of particulate matter bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for the elderly in a retirement community of a mega city in North China

Assessment of the health risks resulting from exposure to ambient polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is limited by the lack of environmental exposure data among different subpopulations. To assess the exposure cancer risk of particulate carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon pollution for the elderly, this study conducted a personal exposure measurement campaign for particulate PAHs in a community of Tianjin, a city in northern China. Personal exposure samples were collected from the elderly in non-heating (August–September, 2009) and heating periods (November–December, 2009), and 12 PAHs individuals were analyzed for risk estimation. Questionnaire and time-activity log were also recorded for each person. The probabilistic risk assessment model was integrated with Toxic Equivalent Factors (TEFs). Considering that the estimation of the applied dose for a given air pollutant is dependent on the inhalation rate, the inhalation rate from both EPA exposure factor book was applied to calculate the carcinogenic risk in this study. Monte Carlo simulation was used as a probabilistic risk assessment model, and risk simulation results indicated that the inhalation-ILCR values for both male and female subjects followed a lognormal distribution with a mean of 4.81?×?10^?6 and 4.57?×?10^?6, respectively. Furthermore, the 95 % probability lung cancer risks were greater than the USEPA acceptable level of 10^?6 for both men and women through the inhalation route, revealing that exposure to PAHs posed an unacceptable potential cancer risk for the elderly in this study. As a result, some measures should be taken to reduce PAHs pollution and the exposure level to decrease the cancer risk for the general population, especially for the elderly.     

Assessing the impact of the Japanese 2005 World Exposition Project on vascular plants' risk of extinction

The Red Data Book of Japanese Vascular Plants is based on their risk of extinction. In order to construct the list, 2000 taxa were evaluated using population data and rates of decline for approximately 4400 grids, each of approximately 100 km(2). This database can be used to estimate the impact of human activity on a threatened plant's risk of extinction. In order to evaluate extinction risks and apply the evaluation to conservation actions, the discount mean time to extinction is defined as a measure of extinction risk, where the present value of a species' persistence in the future decreases exponentially. The rate of decrease has to be much less than the rate of economic discounting, in order to realize intergenerational sustainability. Increases of the inverse, and logarithm, of the discount mean time to extinction are considered measures of the extinction risk. We applied these measures to an environmental impact assessment for the Japanese World Exposition that is to be held in 2005. Development will have a greater impact on threatened Salvia species than it will on star magnolia, Magnolia tomentosa, which has been conserved by changing the site plan.     

Ecological risk assessment for aquatic species exposed to contaminants in Keelung River, Taiwan

An ecological risk assessment was conducted for Keelung River in northern Taiwan. The objective of this study was to assess the risk to fish, aquatic insects, and benthic macroinvertebrates associated with chemical-of-potential-concern (COPC) in the river and to rank ecological risk for these chemicals. The protection of at least 95% of the species 90% of the time from acute and chronic COPC exposures was the defined assessment endpoint. Nine inorganic and organic contaminants were selected to evaluate the impact to aquatic community in the Keelung River. The quotient method served as screen level estimation of risk. The Aquatic Ecological Risk Assessment model was used to analyze exposure and ecological effects and to estimate community level risk. The logarithmic regression model between probability and lethal concentration was established. The combined risks of multiple chemicals were evaluated under assumption of additive risk. The results indicated that zinc and copper pose higher risk among metals. Ammonia, copper, and zinc posed virtually all of the risk, while organic COPCs posed a negligible risk. Potential ecological risk from ammonia exposure was greatest. The probability of more than 5% of the species being affected by acute or chronic toxicity of COPCs is about 100%. In average (50% of the time), 99% of the species would be affected by acute toxicity of COPCs, and about all the species would be affected by chronic toxicity of COPCs. Uncertainties in this assessment were associated with variability in ecosystem stressors, exposure data, ecological effect data, and risk characterization.     

A framework for risk characterization of environmental pollutants.

Risk characterization is defined by both the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. EPA as the estimation of human health risk due to harmful (i.e., toxic or carcinogenic) substances or organisms. Risk characterization studies are accomplished by integrating quantitative exposure estimates and dose-response relationships with the qualitative results of hazard identification. A Risk Characterization Framework has been developed to encourage a systematic approach for analysis and presentation of risk estimates. This methodology subdivides the four common components of the risk assessment process into ten elements. Each of these elements is based on a term in a predictive risk equation. The equation allows independent computations of exposure, dose, lifetime individual risk, and risk to affected populations. All key assumptions in the predictive risk equation can be explicitly shown. This is important to understand the basis and inherent uncertainties of the risk estimation process. The systematic treatment of each of the ten elements in this framework aids in the difficult job of comparing risk estimates by different researchers using different methodologies. The Risk Characterization Framework has been applied to various indoor and outdoor air pollutants of a carcinogenic nature. With further development, it also promises to be applicable to noncarcinogenic effects.     

Evaluation of an ecosystem model in ecological risk assessment of chemicals

We used a Lake Suwa version of Comprehensive Aquatic Systems Model (CASM_SUWA) to demonstrate the risk estimation of 10 different chemicals and examined the applicability and reliability of the model in ecological risk assessment by qualitatively and quantitatively comparing with the results of studies on multiple species using mesocosm tests. The qualitative comparison of the model results with those of the reported mesocosm tests indicated that some evidence observed in mesocosm studies supported the indirect effects predicted from simulation using the model. The comparison of the concentration levels at which 20% biomass reduction (BR20) in the most sensitive population estimated from the model with the no-observed effect concentration values derived from multiple species mesocosm tests (MS-NOEC) suggested that both data were related to each other and the model can be used to help in the determination of an ecological acceptable level of chemicals in aquatic environments. The analysis of the potential of indirect effects of a chemical for fish population indicated that the magnitude of the potential of indirect effects was quantified based on the ratio of BR50 to LC50 for fish population.     

Using stochastic risk assessment in setting information priorities for managing dioxin impact from a municipal waste incinerator

The objectives of this study were to assess site-specific carcinogenic risk of incinerator-emitted dioxins in a manner reflecting pollutant transfer across multimedia and multi-pathways. The study used site-specific environmental and exposure information and combined the Monte Carlo method with multimedia modeling to produce probability distributions of risk estimates. The risk estimates were further categorized by contaminated environmental media and exposure pathways that are experienced by human receptors in order to pinpoint significant sources of risk. Rank correlation coefficients were also calculated along with the Monte Carlo sampling to identify key factors that influenced estimation of risk. The results showed that ingestion accounted for more than 90% of the total risk and that risk control on ingestion of eggs, aboveground vegetables, and poultry should receive priority. It was also found that variation of parameters with variability accounted for around 35% of the total risk variance, while uncertainty contributed to the remaining 65%. Intake rates of aboveground vegetables, eggs, and poultry were the key parameters with the largest contribution to variance. In addition, sufficient sampling and analysis of dioxin contents in eggs, aboveground vegetables, poultry, soil, and fruit should be performed to improve risk estimation because the variation in concentrations in these media accounted for the largest overall risk variance. Finally, focus should be placed on reduction of uncertainty associated with the risk estimation through ingestion of aboveground vegetables, eggs, poultry, fruit, and soil because the risk estimates associated with these exposure pathways had the largest variance.     

Ecotoxicological risk assessment linked to the discharge by hospitals of bio-accumulative pharmaceuticals into aquatic media: The case of mitotane

The release of hospital wastewater into the urban sewer networks contributes to the general contamination of aquatic media by pharmaceutical residues. These residues include bio-accumulative pharmaceuticals that lead to increased risk for ecosystems because they can concentrate in organisms and food chains, and therefore reach toxic levels. In order to assess the ecotoxicological risks linked to this particular category of residues, we have developed a specific method, by combining a theoretical calculation of pollutant concentrations in organisms to estimate Body Residue (BR), and ecotoxicity biomarkers in fish cell lines, enabling the calculation of a Critical Body Residue (CBR). This method finally results in the calculation of a specific risk quotient (Qb = BR/CBR), characterizing the risk linked to this type of pollutant. This method was applied to mitotane, a bio-accumulative pharmaceutical typically found in hospital wastewater, in the framework of an exposure scenario corresponding to the discharge of all the hospital wastewaters into the Rhone River which flows through the city of Lyon, France. This approach leads to risk quotients (Qb and Qbg) much higher than those found with the classical approach, i.e. Q = PEC/PNEC (Predictive Environmental Concentration/Predictive Non Effect Concentration) = 0.0006. This difference in the appreciation of risk is important when using cytotoxicity as the criterion for measuring the toxicity of mitotane (Qb = 0.056) and it is even greater when the criterion used is genotoxicity (Qbg = 6.8). This study must be now consolidated by taking the biomagnification of the pharmaceuticals into consideration.     

Overflow risk analysis for designing a nonpoint sources control detention

This paper presents a design method by which the overflow risk related to a detention for managing nonpoint pollutant sources in urban areas can be evaluated. The overall overflow risk of a nonpoint pollutant sources control detention can be estimated by inherent overflow risk and operational overflow risk. For the purpose of calculating overflow risk, the 3-parameter mixed exponential distribution is applied to describe the probability distribution of rainfall event depth. As a rainfall-runoff calculation procedure required for deriving a rainfall capture curve, the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service runoff curve number method is applied to consider the nonlinearity of the rainfall-runoff relation. Finally, the detention overflow risk is assessed with respect to the detention design capacity and drainage time. The proposed overflow risk assessment is expected to provide a baseline to determine quantitative parameters in designing a nonpoint sources control detention.     

Inhalation transfer factors for air pollution health risk assessment

To facilitate routine health risk assessments, we develop the concept of an inhalation transfer factor (ITF). The ITF is defined as the pollutant mass inhaled by an exposed individual per unit pollutant mass emitted from an air pollution source. A cumulative population inhalation transfer factor (PITF) is also defined to describe the total fraction of an emitted pollutant inhaled by all members of the exposed population. In this paper, ITFs and PITFs are calculated for outdoor releases from area, point, and line sources, indoor releases in single zone and multizone indoor environments, and releases within motor vehicles. Typical PITFs for an urban area from emissions outdoors are approximately 10(-6)-10(-3). PITFs associated with emissions in buildings or in moving vehicles are typically much higher, approximately 10(-3)-10(-1).     

Environmental risk evaluation of chemicals: achievements of the project and seeds for future--development of metrics for evaluating risks

Achievements of the research project entitled "Establishment of a scientific framework for the management of toxicity of chemicals based on environmental risk-benefit analysis" supported by the JST were introduced and reviewed, focusing on the development of the methodology for estimating risks; human health risks and ecological risks. The usefulness of loss of life expectancy as a metric for evaluating cancer and noncancer risks was demonstrated. To evaluate ecological risks, three metrics, 1/T, logT and T, developed based on the mean extinction time (T) of species were proposed. Then, their implication and feasibility were examined in terms of what ecological system should be conserved and how easily people can understand the implications of metrics. Protocols for estimating human health risks and ecological risks are illustrated.     

Ecological risk of pesticide residues in the British Columbia environment: 1973–2012

An updated ecological risk assessment was conducted to re-evaluate and review the overall risk of pesticide residues to certain aquatic life. The focus was the impact on offsite non-target, freshwater organisms of pesticide operational sprays in British Columbia from 1973 until 2012. The values of risk quotients for pesticides of selected indicator organisms were determined to measure the effect. When compared with organophosphorus, carbamate, and other miscellaneous pesticides, this risk assessment analysis suggests that the historical use of persistent and highly toxic organochlorine pesticides posed, and continue to pose, a deleterious ecological risk. The risk is both short-term acute and long-term sub-acute, chronic toxicity to offsite, non-target aquatic invertebrates and juvenile salmonid fish. Data indicated that these organisms were, and remain, subjected to harmful effects of pesticide residues to varying degrees. Most vulnerable were, and also are, benthic organisms inhabiting bottom sediments. This substrate is the natural sink for persistent pesticide residues, predominantly organochlorine pesticides from historical use, as well as dioxins, furans, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from wood preservatives, and other sources. Environment Canada's main aquatic protection strategy was a 10 metre no-treatment buffer zone, augmented with an additional appropriate setback along shorelines of fishery and wildlife resource-sensitive water bodies. This study discusses why this guideline was necessary, useful and effective, but was only partially successful. The physical-chemical properties of pesticide residues, from either an individual compound or different compounds in combination, also influence the nature of biological impacts on non-target, aquatic organisms. Few studies have been conducted in British Columbia aquatic environments to investigate the significance of this aspect.     

Setting the most robust effluent level under severe uncertainty: Application of information-gap decision theory to chemical management

Decisions in ecological risk management for chemical substances must be made based on incomplete information due to uncertainties. To protect the ecosystems from the adverse effect of chemicals, a precautionary approach is often taken. The precautionary approach, which is based on conservative assumptions about the risks of chemical substances, can be applied selecting management models and data. This approach can lead to an adequate margin of safety for ecosystems by reducing exposure to harmful substances, either by reducing the use of target chemicals or putting in place strict water quality criteria. However, the reduction of chemical use or effluent concentrations typically entails a financial burden. The cost effectiveness of the precautionary approach may be small. Hence, we need to develop a formulaic methodology in chemical risk management that can sufficiently protect ecosystems in a cost-effective way, even when we do not have sufficient information for chemical management. Information-gap decision theory can provide the formulaic methodology. Information-gap decision theory determines which action is the most robust to uncertainty by guaranteeing an acceptable outcome under the largest degree of uncertainty without requiring information about the extent of parameter uncertainty at the outset. In this paper, we illustrate the application of information-gap decision theory to derive a framework for setting effluent limits of pollutants for point sources under uncertainty. Our application incorporates a cost for reduction in pollutant emission and a cost to wildlife species affected by the pollutant. Our framework enables us to settle upon actions to deal with severe uncertainty in ecological risk management of chemicals.     

Rationale for assessment of risk from exposure to 2,3,7,8-TCDD

The human health risk assessment is supported by methodology for utilizing toxic effects in animals consisting of carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic responses as a result of chronic, subchronic and acute exposures. One of the initial steps in a risk assessment activity involves the estimation of exposure levels. These estimates are typically based on either direct environmental measurements or predictions obtained from fate and transport models. The decision to develop assessment of risk from chronic exposure based on a nonthreshold model is made if a chemical demonstrates carcinogenic activity in animal bioassays and/or in human epidemiological studies. In the absence of any positive human epidemiologic data, it is assumed that a substance which induces a statistically significant carcinogenic response in animals has the probability to cause cancer in humans. The carcinogenic potential of 2,3,7,8-TCDD has been established based on chronic exposure in rodents. In addition, 2,3,7,8-TCDD has also been shown to be a liver cancer promoter in rodents. In the risk assessment on dioxins based on chronic exposure in experimental animals, 2,3,7,8-TCDD is regarded as a carcinogenic substance. Carcinogenic data from animal bioassays are utilized for the assessment of risk for the purpose of estimating the likelihood of 2,3,7,8-TCDD being carcinogenic for humans and to determine the magnitude of the potential impact on public health.     

Ecological risk assessments of endocrine disrupting organotin compounds using marine neogastropods in Hong Kong

As active ingredients of anti-fouling paints that are widely used on ship hulls, organotin compounds, in particular tributyltin (TBT), are well-known endocrine disruptors causing sex changes in marine organisms and widespread in coastal waters and sediments worldwide. In this study, a comprehensive ecological risk assessment (ERA) of organotins was conducted in Hong Kong waters through determining the imposex status, sex ratio and tissue burdens of these compounds in the neogastropods, Thais clavigera and Thais luteostoma collected from 29 coastal sites. We also investigated the historical trend of organotin effects on these gastropods, and performed a probabilistic ERA based on tissue burden of TBT in the animals. Our results demonstrated that imposex indices were positively correlated with the body burden of organotins in the gastropods. Across all sites, the sex ratio (female:male) decreased significantly with increasing imposex levels or tissue burden of organotins, implying that such pollutants can result in a male-biased population, potentially leading to local extinction in extreme cases. Based on the ERA, 5.4% of all populations of T. clavigera are at risk due to exposure to TBT; the risks include growth inhibition, impairment of immune functions and reduced fitness. Seriously impacted areas included Aberdeen, Repulse Bay, Butterfly Beach, Mui Wo and Ha Mei Wan. A comparison with historical data revealed that there had been some improvement in the areas with low marine traffic, and distant from the major harbour/port. This could partly be due to the restriction on the use of TBT on small vessels (<25m in length) since 1992. Nevertheless, the organotin contamination still remains severe in areas with high marine traffic or adjacent to large harbours/ports. In particular, the situation in the northeastern waters of Hong Kong has been getting worst since 1996 that is probably associated with the rapid development of the cargo container port at Yantian in China.     

Trace metals and organometals in selected marine species and preliminary risk assessment to human beings in Thane Creek area, Mumbai

Trace metals and organometals were estimated in different types of marine organisms (fish, bivalve, crab and prawn) collected from the Trans-Thane Creek area, Mumbai. Thane Creek area is considered as most polluted area due to industrial discharges. Potential risks associated with consumption of marine organisms collected from this particular area to human beings were assessed. Concentrations of ten trace elements (As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn) in the edible part of marine organisms were analysed by atomic absorption spectrometer and differential pulse anodic stripping voltametric technique. Methyl mercury and tributyl tin were estimated using gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer in combination with solid phase micro extraction (SPME). An assessment of the risk on human beings due to consumption of marine organism was undertaken using toxic reference benchmark, namely the reference dose (RfD). The hazard index (HI), sum of hazard quotients calculated for all the pollutant showed that the risks from consumption of fish and marine organisms as a whole were generally low and are within safe limits.     

Evaluation of alternative PCB clean-up strategies using an individual-based population model of mink

Population models can be used to place observed toxic effects into an assessment of the impacts on population-level endpoints, which are generally considered to provide greater ecological insight and relevance. We used an individual-based model of mink to evaluate the population-level effects of exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and the impact that different remediation strategies had on mink population endpoints (population size and extinction risk). Our simulations indicated that the initial population size had a strong impact on mink population dynamics. In addition, mink populations were extremely responsive to clean-up scenarios that were initiated soon after the contamination event. In fact, the rate of PCB clean-up did not have as strong a positive effect on mink as did the initiation of clean-up (start time). We show that population-level approaches can be used to understand adverse effects of contamination and to also explore the potential benefits of various remediation strategies.     

Aquatic predicted no-effect concentration for three polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and probabilistic ecological risk assessment in Liaodong Bay of the Bohai Sea, China

Predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) is often used in ecological risk assessment to determine low-risk concentrations for chemicals. In the present study, native marine species were selected for toxicity testing. The PNECs for three polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), specifically phenanthrene (Phe), pyrene (Pyr), and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), were derived from chronic and acute toxicity data with log-normal statistical methods. The achieved PNECs for Phe, Pyr, and BaP were 2.33, 1.09, and 0.011 μg/L, respectively. In Jinzhou Bay and the Shuangtaizi River Estuary of Liaodong Bay in the Bohai Sea, China, the surface water concentrations of the three PAHs were analyzed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Based on two probabilistic ecological risk assessment (PERA) methods, namely probabilistic risk quotient and joint probability curve, the potential risk of Phe, Pyr, and BaP in Jinzhou Bay and Shuangtaizi River Estuary was assessed. The same order of ecological risk (BaP > Phe > Pyr) was found by both models. Our study considered regional characteristics of marine biota during the calculation of PNECs, and the PERA methods provided probabilities of potential ecological risks of chemicals. Within the study area, further research on BaP is required due to its high potential ecological risk.     

Ecological risk of anthropogenic pollutants to reptiles: Evaluating assumptions of sensitivity and exposure

A large data gap for reptile ecotoxicology still persists; therefore, ecological risk assessments of reptiles usually incorporate the use of surrogate species. This necessitates that (1) the surrogate is at least as sensitive as the target taxon and/or (2) exposures to the surrogate are greater than that of the target taxon. We evaluated these assumptions for the use of birds as surrogates for reptiles. Based on a survey of the literature, birds were more sensitive than reptiles in less than 1/4 of the chemicals investigated. Dietary and dermal exposure modeling indicated that exposure to reptiles was relatively high, particularly when the dermal route was considered. We conclude that caution is warranted in the use of avian receptors as surrogates for reptiles in ecological risk assessment and emphasize the need to better understand the magnitude and mechanism of contaminant exposure in reptiles to improve exposure and risk estimation.     

Field sampling of soil pore water to evaluate trace element mobility and associated environmental risk

Monitoring soil pollution is a key aspect in sustainable management of contaminated land but there is often debate over what should be monitored to assess ecological risk. Soil pore water, containing the most labile pollutant fraction in soils, can be easily collected in situ offering a routine way to monitor this risk. We present a compilation of data on concentration of trace elements (As, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn) in soil pore water collected in field conditions from a range of polluted and non-polluted soils in Spain and the UK during single and repeated monitoring, and propose a simple eco-toxicity test using this media. Sufficient pore water could be extracted for analysis both under semi-arid and temperate conditions, and eco-toxicity comparisons could be effectively made between polluted and non-polluted soils. We propose that in-situ pore water extraction could enhance the realism of risk assessment at some contaminated sites.