Forest-based biomass supply potential and economics for the pellet production in Nepal

In the current study, the potential of forest-based biomass supply for the pellet production in Nepal is investigated. This study showed that about 2.76 million tonnes (Mt) biomass in the form of pellets are potentially available from forest-based biomass. Considering a processing capacity of 6 tonnes (t)/hr of a pellet plant, the production cost of the pellets was calculated to be $43.53/t. Pellets are generally used as fuel to produce thermal energy in industries, which helps to save the economy and the environment of the country.     

Evaluating the PM damage cost due to urban air pollution and vehicle emissions in Seoul, Korea

This study evaluated the prospective damage costs of PM(2.5) inhalation. We performed a health risk assessment based on an exposure-response function to estimate the annual population risk in the Seoul metropolitan city, Korea. Also, we estimated a willingness-to-pay (WTP) amount for reducing the mortality rate in order to evaluate a statistical life value. We combined the annual population risk and the value-of-statistical-life to calculate the damage cost estimate. In the health risk assessment, we applied the PM(2.5) relative risk to evaluate the annual population risk. We targeted an exposure population of 5,401,369 persons who were over the age of 30. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis, we estimated that the population risk of PM(2.5) inhalation during a year in Seoul is 2181 premature deaths for acute exposure and 18,510 premature deaths for chronic exposure. The monthly average WTP for 5/1000 mortality reduction over ten years is $20.20 USD (95% C.I: $16.60-24.50) and the implied value-of-statistical-life (VSL) is $485,000 USD (95% C.I: $398,000-588,000). The damage cost estimate due to risk from PM(2.5) inhalation in Seoul is about $1057 million USD per year for acute exposure, and $8972 million USD per year for chronic exposure. It is important to note that this cost estimate does not reflect all health damage cost estimates in this urban area. This recommendation is a model for evaluating a mortality risk reduction and as such we must re-evaluate an integrated application of morbidity risk.     

Trade-Offs Between Forest Protection and Wood Supply in Europe

Forest protection is one of the main measures to prevent loss of biological and landscape diversity. This study aimed to assess to what extent forests are currently protected and how felling restrictions affect the potential annual wood supply within 27 European Union member states, Norway, and Switzerland and to discuss trade-offs between intensified use of forest biomass and forest protection efforts. Protected forests covered 33 million ha (20 % of total forest area) in 2005, of which 16 million ha was protected for biodiversity and the remaining area for landscape diversity. Within the protected areas, on average 48 % of the volume cannot be harvested in forests protected for biodiversity and 40 % in forests protected for landscapes. Consequently, 73 million m³ (10 % of the annual theoretical potential supply from the total forest area) of wood cannot be felled from the protected forests in Europe. Protected forests do not necessarily affect wood supply given the current demand for wood in Europe. However, if demand for wood from European forests for material and energy use significantly increases, the impact of existing protected forest networks may become significant after all. On the other hand, wood harvesting is allowed to a fair extent in many protected areas. Hence, the question could be raised whether biodiversity and landscape diversity within designated areas are sufficiently protected. Careful planning is required to accommodate both the protection of biological and landscape diversity and demand for wood, while not forgetting all other services that forests provide.     

Identifying Influences on Model Uncertainty: An Application Using a Forest Carbon Budget Model

Uncertainty is an important consideration for both developers and users of environmental simulation models. Establishing quantitative estimates of uncertainty for deterministic models can be difficult when the underlying bases for such information are scarce. We demonstrate an application of probabilistic uncertainty analysis that provides for refinements in quantifying input uncertainty even with little information. Uncertainties in forest carbon budget projections were examined with Monte Carlo analyses of the model FORCARB. We identified model sensitivity to range, shape, and covariability among model probability density functions, even under conditions of limited initial information. Distributional forms of probabilities were not as important as covariability or ranges of values. Covariability among FORCARB model parameters emerged as a very influential component of uncertainty, especially for estimates of average annual carbon flux.     

Controlling groundwater pumping online

Groundwater over-pumping is a major problem in several countries around the globe. Since controlling groundwater pumping through water flow meters is hardly feasible, the surrogate is to control electricity usage. This paper presents a framework to restrict groundwater pumping by implementing an annual individual electricity quota without interfering with the electricity pricing policy. The system could be monitored online through prepaid electricity meters. This provides low transaction costs of individual monitoring of users compared to the prohibitive costs of water flow metering and monitoring. The public groundwater managers' intervention is thus required to determine the water and electricity quota and watch the electricity use online. The proposed framework opens the door to the establishment of formal groundwater markets among users at very low transaction costs. A cost–benefit analysis over a 25-year period is used to evaluate the cost of non-action and compare it to the prepaid electricity quota framework in the Batinah coastal area of Oman. Results show that the damage cost to the community, if no active policy is implemented, amounts to (−$288) million. On the other hand, the implementation of a prepaid electricity quota with an online management system would result in a net present benefit of $199 million.     

The Worldwide Availability of Gold

This paper summarizes Bureau of Mines research relating to the state of the world gold industry. The authors discuss the world gold industry structure, demonstrated gold resources, current production, and the long-term cost and availability of potential future gold production.
The long-term cost and availability of primary gold production from 111 significant producing mines and developing deposits in 13 market economy countries (MECs) is evaluated. Total recoverable gold available (as of January 1984) from the evaluated mines and deposits is estimated at 819 million troy ounces. The Republic of South Africa is estimated to account for 87% of total recoverable gold. The USA and Canada account for 4% and 4.5% of the total, respectively. Eighty-three per cent of total recoverable gold is available at a constant 1984 break-even price of $400 per ounce, and 70% is available at $300 per ounce. South Africa accounts for 90% of the gold available at $400 per ounce or less. Gold resources in the Soviet Union and China are discussed but not evaluated for costs of production. Some conclusions of the analyses are that South Africa should remain the largest world producer until the year 2000 and annual MEC output in the year 2000 should not be significantly different from current output, given constant 1984 gold prices of more than $300 per ounce.     

Socioeconomic indicators and the survival of the tropical rainforest of cross river state of Nigeria

An internal household survey of socioeconomic indicators in the Cross River State forest communities showed that basic infrastructural facilities such as clean water supply, adequate waste disposal system, good roads and electricity are grossly inadequate. There is a total absence of modern family planning practices in the communities, and population is projected to increase by 44.8% between 2000 and 2015 and 85.4% between 2000 and 2025. The study revealed that about 65% of the population of the rainforest communities consists of subsistence farmers and power chain operators, and besides the 19% of the Cross River State Tropical High Forestry (THF) already reported to have been lost to agriculture and plantation between 1972 and 1991, about 9% was lost between 1991 and 2000. An additional 25% of the THF will be lost by 2025, leaving only 470600 hectares (4706 km²). With 84.1% of community members having an annual income less than $300, the survival potential of the Cross River State rainforest in the next fifty years is very low, unless an effective forest management programme is encouraged by government in partnership with all stakeholders.     

Financial viability of reforesting reclaimed surface mined lands, the burden of site conversion costs, and carbon payments as reforestation incentives

US Federal law mandates that mined land be returned by mine operators to a condition capable of supporting its pre-mining use or a higher use. Previously forested lands have commonly been reclaimed to hayland/pasture or wildlife habitat, and most of these lands have been abandoned from management and rendered non-productive. This situation has left landowners in the position of converting these reclaimed mined lands to forests at a later date, if they choose to make them economically productive. Such land-use conversion, however, comes with a substantial up-front cost to the landowner, which makes the financial viability of such a conversion questionable. We examine the financial viability of reforestation of these previously reclaimed mine lands by calculating land expectation value (LEV) under a range of conditions that include forest type, site quality, and reforestation intensity. We find that conversion to white pine is viable on higher quality sites under low to moderate interest rates with low or high timber prices, but conversion to mixed hardwoods is only profitable under the high price scenario with low interest rates, and only on higher quality sites. We also consider the implications of a shift in reforestation burden from the landowner to the mine operator, and results suggest that including costs of reforestation as part of the mining operation creates a financially viable forest enterprise for landowners under all scenarios for both white pine and mixed hardwoods. Two forms of carbon payments that could encourage reforestation of previously reclaimed mined lands also are examined: an annual payment based upon the total accumulated carbon found on-site in a given year, and an annual payment based on only the increment of carbon storage each year. Our carbon payment results indicate that annual values of up to $5.17 per ton of carbon stored in hardwoods and $9.39 per ton of carbon stored in pines would be required to make reforestation profitable under the poorest conditions (high interest rates, low prices, and poor quality site) when the payment is based on accumulated on-site carbon, although lower values are required under more favorable scenarios. Payments that are based upon the annual increment of carbon must fall in the range of $8.66–$71.88 per ton of carbon stored in hardwoods and $0–$83.29 per ton of carbon stored in pines to make reforestation financially viable.     

黔东南州森林生物量研究

论述了森林生物量的发展历史、概念和研究方法。利用黔东南州最新（2005年）的森林资源连续清查数据及生物量与蓄积量之间的关系为基础，对黔东南州森林生物量进行测算。黔东南州森林生物量达6107．21万t，单位面积生物量为29．7t／hm^2。     

Biomass as the Renewable Energy Sources in Malaysia: An Overview

Past and current economic growths of Malaysia have been primarily energized by fossil fuels. Malaysia has very substantial potential for biomass energy utilization given its equatorial climate that is ideal for dense tropical forest growth and agricultural vegetation. There are five major sectors contributing wastes to biomass energy in Malaysia: forestry (wood products), rubber cultivation, cocoa cultivation, sugar cane cultivation and oil palm cultivation. Biomass in Malaysia contributes about 14% of the approximately 340 million barrel of oil equivalent (boe) of energy used every year. This paper provides an overview on the types of biomass being used, the research works on biomass conversion into energy and the present biomass energy projects in Malaysia.     

Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis Using the Sparrow Model for Dissolved‐Solids Transport in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Salinity in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) is due to both natural sources and processes, and anthropogenic activities. Given economic damage due to salinity of $295 million in 2010, understanding salinity sources and production together with transport are of great importance. SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed (SPARROW) is a nonlinear regression water quality model that simulates sources and transport of contaminants such as dissolved‐solids. However, SPARROW simulations of dissolved‐solids in the UCRB only represent conditions through 1998 due to limited data availability. More importantly, prior simulations focused on a single year calibration and its transferability to other years, and the validity of this approach is questionable, given the changing hydrologic and climatic conditions. This study presents different calibration approaches to assess the best approach for reducing model uncertainty. This study conducted simulations from 1999 to 2011, and the results showed good model accuracy. However, the number of monitoring stations decreased significantly in recent years resulting in higher model uncertainty. The uncertainty analysis was conducted using SPARROW results and bootstrapping. The results suggest that the watershed rankings based on salinity yields changed due to the uncertainty analysis and therefore, uncertainty consideration should be an important part of the management strategy.     

The availability of primary nickel from the market economy countries

The US Bureau of Mines has determined the potential availability of nickel from 36 deposits or districts in 16 market economy countries (MECs). More than 95% of production in MECs was analysed. The study indicates the quantity of nickel available in resources and potential annual production at net production costs and on a total cost basis with a 0% and a 10% discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR). The properties included in this study contain approximately 33 million tonnes of recoverable nickel. About 26 million tonnes of nickel is potentially recoverable from nickel laterite deposits, of which 4.5 million tonnes can be produced at $2.50/lb or less with a 0% DCFROR. Approximately 7 million tonnes of nickel is potentially recoverable from nickel sulphide deposits of which about 6.3 million tonnes could be produced at $2.50/lb or less at a 0% DCFROR. Sensitivity studies indicate that the total cost of producing nickel from laterite deposits is most sensitive to increases in energy costs, and that the total costs of producing nickel from sulphide deposits is most sensitive to increases in labour costs and by changes in byproduct revenues.     

DRAINMOD-FOREST: Integrated Modeling of Hydrology, Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics, and Plant Growth for Drained Forests

We present a hybrid and stand-level forest ecosystem model, DRAINMOD-FOREST, for simulating the hydrology, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics, and tree growth for drained forest lands under common silvicultural practices. The model was developed by linking DRAINMOD, the hydrological model, and DRAINMOD-N II, the soil C and N dynamics model, to a forest growth model, which was adapted mainly from the 3-PG model. The forest growth model estimates net primary production, C allocation, and litterfall using physiology-based methods regulated by air temperature, water deficit, stand age, and soil N conditions. The performance of the newly developed DRAINMOD-FOREST model was evaluated using a long-term (21-yr) data set collected from an artificially drained loblolly pine ( L.) plantation in eastern North Carolina, USA. Results indicated that the DRAINMOD-FOREST accurately predicted annual, monthly, and daily drainage, as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of 0.93, 0.87, and 0.75, respectively. The model also predicted annual net primary productivity and dynamics of leaf area index reasonably well. Predicted temporal changes in the organic matter pool on the forest floor and in forest soil were reasonable compared to published literature. Both predicted annual and monthly nitrate export were in good agreement with field measurements, as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.89 and 0.79 for annual and monthly predictions, respectively. This application of DRAINMOD-FOREST demonstrated its capability for predicting hydrology and C and N dynamics in drained forests under limited silvicultural practices.     

Sustainability of fisheries through marine reserves: a robust modeling analysis

Among the many factors that contribute to overexploitation of marine fisheries, the role played by uncertainty is important. This uncertainty includes both the scientific uncertainties related to the resource dynamics or assessments and the uncontrollability of catches. Some recent works advocate for the use of marine reserves as a central element of future stock management. In the present paper, we study the influence of protected areas upon fisheries sustainability through a simple dynamic model integrating non-stochastic harvesting uncertainty and a constraint of safe minimum biomass level. Using the mathematical concept of invariance kernel in a robust and worst-case context, we examine through a formal modeling analysis how marine reserves might guarantee viable fisheries. We also show how sustainability requirement is not necessarily conflicting with optimization of catches. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the main findings.     

Quantification of present and past biomass productivity as a support to effective biomass management

We used statistical data including specific calculations to show how the productivity of different biomass categories varies with land use, environmental conditions and land management at national and local level in Slovakia. Three different study sites were selected. Averaged annual productivity of the total biomass from one hectare ranged from 5.96 to 12.03 t on arable land, from 4.02 to 15.20 t on grasslands and from 11.72 to 13.56 t on forest land. Although the biomass productivity varied among the various biomass categories and the study sites, the average annual values of the total biomass per hectare from productive land was about the same at all three study sites (11.62, 11.68, 11.78 t/ha). Detailed quantification of different biomass categories offered a variety of possibilities to use them for further applications in economy and ecosystem services. At the national level, the unused biomass could have produced 29.8 PJ (petajoule) of heat energy.     

Electricity price and Southern California’s water supply options

This paper evaluates the impact of fluctuating electricity prices on the cost of five options to increase the water supply to urban areas in Southern California—new surface storage, water purchases, desalination, wastewater recycling, and conservation.We show that the price of electricity required to produce and transport water influences the cost of water supply options and may alter the decision makers economic ranking of these options. When electricity prices are low, water purchase is the cost effective option. When prices exceed US$ 86/MWh, conservation of electricity and water through installation of high efficiency clothes washers is the most effective option.     

Biomass use in chemical and mechanical pulping with biomass-based energy supply

The pulp and paper industry is energy intensive and consumes large amounts of wood. Biomass is a limited resource and its efficient use is therefore important. In this study, the total amount of biomass used for pulp and for energy is estimated for the production of several woodfree (containing only chemical pulp) and mechanical (containing mechanical pulp) printing paper products, under Swedish conditions. Chemical pulp mills today are largely self-sufficient in energy while mechanical pulp mills depend on large amounts of external electricity. Technically, all energy used in pulp- and papermaking can be biomass based. Here, we assume that all energy used, including external electricity and motor fuels, is based on forest biomass. The whole cradle-to-gate chain is included in the analyses. The results indicate that the total amount of biomass required per tonne paper is slightly lower for woodfree than for mechanical paper. For the biomass use per paper area, the paper grammage is decisive. If the grammage can be lowered by increasing the proportion of mechanical pulp, this may lower the biomass use per paper area, despite the higher biomass use per unit mass in mechanical paper. In the production of woodfree paper, energy recovery from residues in the mill accounts for most of the biomass use, while external electricity production accounts for the largest part for mechanical paper. Motor fuel production accounts for 5–7% of the biomass use. The biomass contained in the final paper product is 21–42% of the total biomass use, indicating that waste paper recovery is important. The biomass use was found to be about 15–17% lower for modelled, modern mills compared with mills representative of today's average technology.     

Two-stage vertex analysis method for planning electric power systems with greenhouse gas abatement consideration

This study presents a two-stage vertex analysis (TSVA) method for the planning of electric power systems (EPS) under uncertainty. TSVA has advantages in comparison to other optimization techniques. Firstly, TSVA can incorporate greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement policies directly into its optimization process, and, secondly, it can readily integrate inherent system uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and probability distributions directly into its modeling formulation and solution procedure. The TSVA method is applied to a case study of planning EPS and it is demonstrated how the TSVA efficiently identify optimal electricity-generation schemes that could help to minimize system cost under different GHG-abatement considerations. Different combinative considerations on the uncertain inputs lead to varied system costs and GHG emissions. Results reveal that the total electricity supply will rise up along with the time period due to the increasing demand and, at the same time, more non-fossil fuels should be used to satisfy the increasing requirement for GHG mitigation. Moreover, uncertainties in connection with complexities in terms of information quality (e.g., capacity, efficiency, and demand) result in changed electricity-generation patterns, GHG-abatement amounts, as well as system costs. Minimax regret (MMR) analysis technique is employed to identify desired alternative that reflects compromises between system cost and system-failure risk.     

Estimating Forest Ecosystem Evapotranspiration at Multiple Temporal Scales With a Dimension Analysis Approach1

Abstract:  It is critical that evapotranspiration (ET) be quantified accurately so that scientists can evaluate the effects of land management and global change on water availability, streamflow, nutrient and sediment loading, and ecosystem productivity in watersheds. The objective of this study was to derive a new semi‐empirical ET modeled using a dimension analysis method that could be used to estimate forest ET effectively at multiple temporal scales. The model developed describes ET as a function of water availability for evaporation and transpiration, potential ET demand, air humidity, and land surface characteristics. The model was tested with long‐term hydrometeorological data from five research sites with distinct forest hydrology in the United States and China. Averaged simulation error for daily ET was within 0.5 mm/day. The annual ET at each of the five study sites were within 7% of measured values. Results suggest that the model can accurately capture the temporal dynamics of ET in forest ecosystems at daily, monthly, and annual scales. The model is climate‐driven and is sensitive to topography and vegetation characteristics and thus has potential to be used to examine the compounding hydrologic responses to land cover and climate changes at multiple temporal scales.     

Large-scale utilization of biomass energy and carbon dioxide capture and storage in the transport and electricity sectors under stringent CO2 concentration limit scenarios

Large-scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems are a potentially large contributor to meeting global climate policy targets by the end of the century. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. A key aspect of the research presented here is that the costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are explicitly incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120–160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced globally by midcentury and 200–250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the majority source, along with growing utilization of waste-to-energy. The ability to draw on a diverse set of biomass-based feedstocks helps to reduce the pressure for drastic large-scale changes in land use and the attendant environmental, ecological, and economic consequences those changes would unleash. In terms of the conversion of bioenergy feedstocks into value added energy, this paper demonstrates that biomass is and will continue to be used to generate electricity as well as liquid transportation fuels. A particular focus of this paper is to show how climate policies and technology assumptions – especially the availability of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies – affect the decisions made about where the biomass is used in the energy system. The potential for net-negative electric sector emissions through the use of CCS with biomass feedstocks provides an attractive part of the solution for meeting stringent emissions constraints; we find that at carbon prices above $150/tCO₂, over 90% of biomass in the energy system is used in combination with CCS. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, it is a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO₂ from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. CCS is also used heavily with other fuels such as coal and natural gas, and by 2095 a total of 1530 GtCO₂ has been stored in deep geologic reservoirs. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer–Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels as two representative conversion processes and shows that both technologies may be important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics.