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1.
铅是公认的神经毒物,它的神经毒性是全世界备受关注的重要公共健康问题,特别是发育早期阶段铅暴露与神经行为变化之间的关联.斑马鱼被认为是研究发育早期阶段低浓度铅暴露诱导神经行为毒性的优良模式生物.因此,本研究以斑马鱼胚胎/仔鱼为研究对象,利用Zebrabox建立的行为学效应测试方法,包括运动行为、转动行为和社交行为,系统评价发育早期阶段环境相关浓度(以电子废弃物拆解场地为例)铅暴露的神经行为毒性效应.发育正常的斑马鱼胚胎暴露在浓度为0、5、10、20μg·L~(-1)铅暴露液中直至6 dpf.铅暴露对斑马鱼胚胎/仔鱼具有发育毒性作用,包括孵化率和存活率下降,卵黄囊肿、心包囊肿和脊柱弯曲等畸形现象.在光照条件下,铅暴露对斑马鱼仔鱼的运行行为和转向行为并未产生显著影响;但是在黑暗条件下,20μg·L~(-1)铅暴露后斑马鱼仔鱼运动距离和总转向次数均显著下降,但是其行进路径角度和偏转偏好却无变化.与运动行为和转向行为不同,在黑暗条件下,铅暴露对斑马鱼仔鱼的社交行为并未产生显著影响;但在光照条件下20μg·L~(-1)铅暴露却显著改变了仔鱼的社交次数.本研究结果表明,行为学指标不仅具备足够的灵敏度可用于指示电子废弃物拆解场地铅污染的潜在风险,还能更好地服务于人类健康早期预警的需求.  相似文献   

2.
以斑马鱼(Danio rerio)为研究对象,探讨铅(Pb)、得克隆(DP)及二者联合急性暴露对斑马鱼胚胎的神经毒性作用。结果表明,Pb(5、20μg·L~(-1))和DP(15、60μg·L~(-1))单独暴露均会引起斑马鱼自主运动频率增加,触摸反应能力和自由游泳活力下降,并且抑制初级运动神经元的生长,加剧尾部细胞凋亡。但与20μg·L~(-1)Pb单独暴露相比,高剂量联合暴露(20μg·L~(-1)Pb+60μg·L~(-1)DP)使斑马鱼的自主运动频率显著降低(P0.05),触摸反应能力和自由游泳活力显著增强(P0.05),初级运动神经元轴突长度显著增加(P0.05),尾部细胞凋亡减少。与5μg·L~(-1)Pb单独暴露相比,低剂量联合暴露(5μg·L~(-1)Pb+15μg·L~(-1)DP)也显著减少斑马鱼尾部的细胞凋亡(P0.05)。上述结果表明,Pb或DP单独暴露对斑马鱼均可引起神经毒性作用;但二者联合暴露对斑马鱼自主运动、触摸反应以及自由游泳活力的影响则表现为拮抗作用。  相似文献   

3.
水生生物往往暴露于多种环境激素(如孕激素、雌激素)的混合物中,然而关于多种环境激素对鱼类的联合作用效应的研究较少.孕激素醋酸甲地孕酮(MTA)和雌激素乙炔雌二醇(EE2)是应用广泛的高活性药物,普遍存在于水环境中,二者均能引起鱼类的生殖毒性效应.本文研究了环境相关浓度的MTA和EE2复合暴露对斑马鱼的生殖毒性效应.将斑马鱼成鱼暴露于MTA(33,100 ng·L~(-1))、EE2(5,15 ng·L~(-1))以及二者的混合物(MTA+EE2:33+5 ng·L~(-1),100+15 ng·L~(-1))21 d,结果显示,EE2(15 ng·L~(-1))单独及与MTA(100 ng·L~(-1))复合暴露显著降低斑马鱼的产卵量;MTA、EE2单独及复合暴露均显著降低雌鱼血浆中雌二醇(E2)、睾酮(T)及雄鱼血浆中11-酮基睾酮(11-KT)的含量;EE2单独及与MTA复合暴露导致斑马鱼卵巢的组织学变化(抑制卵子发生,诱导卵泡闭锁),但对精巢影响较小.此外,复合暴露组中斑马鱼的产卵量、血浆性激素含量、性腺组织学变化与EE2单独暴露组相比均无显著差异.本研究表明,MTA和EE2复合暴露可引起斑马鱼的生殖毒性,其中EE2发挥主要毒性作用.本研究结果对于水环境中多种激素复合暴露的风险评估具有重要意义.  相似文献   

4.
全氟辛基碘烷(PFOI)作为化工中间体,其衍生物的广泛应用使得其具有较高的商业价值。但其环境暴露的毒性效应研究甚少。以乳腺癌细胞(MCF-7)为离体模型研究PFOI暴露对细胞迁移能力的影响以及对长链非编码RNA MALAT-1的调节;以斑马鱼胚胎为活体模型来研究斑马鱼胚胎在受到PFOI急性暴露后的胚胎毒性效应,以及对MALAT-1的调节作用。结果表明,PFOI暴露后MCF-7细胞的迁移能力提高,且细胞中MALAT-1基因被诱导高表达;在活体实验中,PFOI (50μmol·L~(-1)和100μmol·L~(-1))暴露导致斑马鱼胚胎发育迟缓,胚胎自发运动因不受神经调节控制而更加活跃,500μmol·L~(-1)PFOI暴露组中孵化率在显著性下降,且在幼鱼脑部集中表达的MALAT-1基因被诱导上调。以上研究结果表明,MALAT-1参与了PFOI诱导癌细胞迁移和自发运动过度活跃等毒性效应的调节作用。  相似文献   

5.
为了明确新型阻燃剂磷酸三(2-氯丙基)酯(TCPP)的生态风险,本研究采用斑马鱼为模式生物,评价了TCPP对成鱼和胚胎的毒性效应。急性毒性研究结果表明,TCPP对斑马鱼成鱼的96 h致死中浓度(LC50)为47.06 mg·L~(-1),而对胚胎96 h-LC50为26.01 mg·L~(-1),且会影响胚胎的正常发育,导致孵化出的仔鱼产生畸形。成鱼14 d延长毒性试验结果表明,TCPP对斑马鱼成鱼的无可观察效应浓度(NOEC)为1.00 mg·L~(-1),染毒暴露后肝脏和性腺指数随TCPP浓度增加轻微下降,但肝脏中卵黄蛋白原(VTG)的含量和性腺中芳香化酶的活性随TCPP浓度增加普遍升高。此外,TCPP的暴露还会导致斑马鱼脑垂体中合成促性腺激素的相关基因表达量增加。因此,TCPP对斑马鱼成鱼和胚胎的急性毒性均为低毒级,但长期暴露会干扰内分泌系统的调控功能,影响斑马鱼的正常发育。  相似文献   

6.
雄激素1,4-雄烯二酮(androstadienedione, ADD)和雄烯二酮(androstenedione, AED)主要用于人类和牲畜疾病的预防和治疗。近年来,ADD和AED的大量使用导致其在河流中广泛检出,甚至在多种鱼类体内亦有检出,且浓度较高。ADD和AED已被证实对鱼类具有生殖毒性和发育毒性,但ADD和AED在转录水平上对鱼类的影响鲜有报道。为探究ADD和AED分子水平毒性,本研究考察了斑马鱼胚胎暴露于ADD(4.48、30.0和231 ng·L~(-1))和AED(3.64、21.7和230 ng·L~(-1))144 h后,对其昼夜节律和下丘脑-垂体-性腺轴(hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis, HPG axis)通路中基因转录表达的影响。结果表明,所有浓度的ADD都显著上调了昼夜节律通路中生物钟基因(per1b)、核受体亚族1的D群基因(nr1d2b)、隐花色素基因(cry5)和si:ch211-132b12.7的转录水平,30.0和231 ng·L~(-1)的ADD下调了时钟节律调节因子基因(clocka)和芳香烃受体核转录蛋白样基因(arntl2)的转录水平。3.64 ng·L~(-1)AED显著增强了per1b和nr1d2b的转录表达。此外在HPG轴中,30.0 ng·L~(-1)ADD显著降低了促黄体生成素V亚基基因(lhb)的转录表达水平,而3.64 ng·L~(-1)AED显著上调了lhb的转录表达水平。值得注意的是,4.48ng·L~(-1)ADD和3.64 ng·L~(-1)AED均显著降低了细胞色素P450的11亚族基因(cyp11b)的转录表达水平。上述研究表明,ADD和AED对昼夜节律和HPG轴中相关基因的转录表达有显著性影响,对斑马鱼具有潜在的内分泌干扰风险。  相似文献   

7.
国内外研究已证实,有机磷酸酯广泛分布于多种环境介质中,但目前仍缺乏足够的数据阐明有机磷酸酯具有早期神经毒性效应及其可能的毒性作用机制。本研究采用模式动物斑马鱼(Danio rerio)作为研究对象,选择了环境中3种典型的有机磷酸酯类化合物包括磷酸三苯酯(TPP)、2-乙基己基二苯基磷酸酯(EHDPP)和磷酸三(2-氯)乙酯(TCEP),从斑马鱼运动行为、氧化应激和神经发育关键基因的转录等方面阐述有机磷酸酯的早期神经毒性作用及可能的作用机制。研究发现,TPP(0.1和1 mg·L~(-1))、EHDPP(0.2和2 mg·L~(-1))和TCEP(0.5和5 mg·L~(-1))可能通过诱导氧化应激并下调神经发育关键基因(mbp和syn2a)的转录从而显著抑制斑马鱼的运动行为。本研究可以为有机磷酸酯类阻燃剂及其替代产品的生产、使用和危险度评估提供直接依据。  相似文献   

8.
1,3-二苯胍(1,3-diphenyl guanidine, DPG)是橡胶生产过程中添加的硫化促进剂,在水环境中广泛存在。然而作为水环境中的一种污染物,目前DPG对水生生物的毒性及其机制的研究极为匮乏。为了研究DPG对水生生物的生殖发育毒性及潜在机制,选择水生模式生物斑马鱼(Danio rerio)作为受试生物。将斑马鱼胚胎分别暴露于浓度为30、100和300μg·L-1的DPG溶液中120 h,通过转录组测序、基因表达水平定量分析及性激素水平测定(雌二醇和睾酮)来探究其对斑马鱼早期生命阶段的生殖发育毒性及机制。转录组测序结果表明,DPG暴露可以显著影响与精卵识别及生殖细胞发育相关的生物学过程。DPG暴露使类固醇合成通路相关基因(cyp11a1、cyp17a1、cyp19a1a、hsd17b1、ar)的转录表达显著上调。激素结果表明DPG暴露导致斑马鱼仔鱼体内雌二醇水平显著升高。以上研究结果表明,在分子水平上,DPG能够影响斑马鱼胚胎及仔鱼的发育,但是在个体水平上仍然缺乏直接的证据揭示DPG暴露对斑马鱼生殖和胚胎发育的不良结局。本研究为DPG对水生生物的毒性研...  相似文献   

9.
为评价吡唑醚菌酯对鱼类不同生命阶段的毒性效应,以斑马鱼(Brachydanio rerio)为测试生物,测定了其对斑马鱼胚胎、仔鱼(孵化3 d和孵化12 d)和成鱼的急性毒性及对胚胎和仔鱼(孵化3 d)的发育毒性。结果表明,吡唑醚菌酯对斑马鱼胚胎、仔鱼(孵化3 d)、仔鱼(孵化12 d)和成鱼的96 h-LC50分别为0.0578(0.0540~0.0631)、0.0299(0.0282~0.0320)、0.0330(0.0310~0.0350)和0.0756(0.0692~0.0862)mg·L-1,其毒性大小依次为仔鱼(孵化3 d)仔鱼(孵化12 d)胚胎成鱼。与对照组相比,吡唑醚菌酯0.101 mg·L-1处理,可对斑马鱼胚胎24 h自主运动产生显著抑制作用;0.0609、0.0777和0.101 mg·L-1处理,可对斑马鱼胚胎48h心跳速率产生显著抑制作用;0.0609和0.0777 mg·L-1处理,可对斑马鱼胚胎96 h孵化仔鱼体长产生显著抑制作用。在供试浓度下吡唑醚菌酯暴露96 h后,均可对斑马鱼仔鱼(孵化3 d)体重和体长产生明显的抑制效应,对斑马鱼仔鱼(孵化3 d)心跳未产生明显影响。在高浓度下,吡唑醚菌酯可诱导斑马鱼胚胎产生畸形,主要包括心包水肿、卵黄囊水肿等;而对仔鱼(孵化3 d)未观察到明显的致畸效应。  相似文献   

10.
磷酸三苯酯(triphenyl phosphate,TPP)作为多溴联苯醚类阻燃剂的替代产品,是一类生产和需求量均相当高的有机磷酸酯类阻燃剂,目前已在多种环境介质以及生物体内均有不同程度检出。由于结构和有机磷农药具有相似性,其对生物的神经毒性值得关注。本研究以斑马鱼为实验动物,研究了TPP(5~625%g·L-1)的胚胎发育毒性和行为毒性,并通过检测乙酰胆碱酯酶活性以及神经系统相关基因的转录水平,探讨其可能的毒性机制。研究发现,TPP可导致斑马鱼胚胎孵化时间延长,体长变短,心率变慢。同时,TPP暴露也可以影响斑马鱼幼鱼在持续光照和明暗周期刺激下的游泳行为,表现为低浓度增加而高浓度降低其游泳速度。而TPP暴露后幼鱼乙酰胆碱酯酶活性以及神经发育相关基因转录水平的变化可能是导致其行为毒性的原因。虽然实验中所设定的暴露浓度高于环境中一般浓度,但TPP在短期暴露中所表现出的胚胎和神经发育毒性表明TPP对于水生生物可能存在一定风险,需要进一步研究加以确认。  相似文献   

11.
Conservation science is a crisis discipline in which the results of scientific enquiry must be made available quickly to those implementing management. We assessed the extent to which scientific research published since the year 2000 in 20 conservation science journals is publicly available. Of the 19,207 papers published, 1,667 (8.68%) are freely downloadable from an official repository. Moreover, only 938 papers (4.88%) meet the standard definition of open access in which material can be freely reused providing attribution to the authors is given. This compares poorly with a comparable set of 20 evolutionary biology journals, where 31.93% of papers are freely downloadable and 7.49% are open access. Seventeen of the 20 conservation journals offer an open access option, but fewer than 5% of the papers are available through open access. The cost of accessing the full body of conservation science runs into tens of thousands of dollars per year for institutional subscribers, and many conservation practitioners cannot access pay‐per‐view science through their workplace. However, important initiatives such as Research4Life are making science available to organizations in developing countries. We urge authors of conservation science to pay for open access on a per‐article basis or to choose publication in open access journals, taking care to ensure the license allows reuse for any purpose providing attribution is given. Currently, it would cost $51 million to make all conservation science published since 2000 freely available by paying the open access fees currently levied to authors. Publishers of conservation journals might consider more cost effective models for open access and conservation‐oriented organizations running journals could consider a broader range of options for open access to nonmembers such as sponsorship of open access via membership fees. Obtención de Acceso Abierto a la Ciencia de la Conservación  相似文献   

12.
A bioblitz inexpensively and quickly generates biodiversity data, but bioblitzes are often conducted with haphazard, unreplicated sampling. Results tend to be taxonomically, geographically, or temporally biased, lack metadata, and consist of lists of observed taxa that do not enable further analyses or correction for imperfect detection. A rapid, recurring, structured survey (RRSS) uses a structured sampling design and temporal and spatial replication to survey randomly selected sites on a conservation property. We participated in a loosely structured bioblitz and a subsequent RRSS at Big Canoe Creek Nature Preserve in Springville (St. Clair County), Alabama (USA) to compare observed richness derived from the 2 survey approaches. The RRSS data structure enabled us to fit models that accounted for imperfect detection to estimate abundances, occupancy probabilities, and habitat associations. The loosely structured bioblitz data could not be used in such models. We present a new integrated multispecies abundance model that we applied to avian RRSS data. Our model extension enables estimation for the community, employs data augmentation to estimate the number of undetected species, and incorporates covariates. The RRSS generated a more comprehensive and less biased list of observed taxonomic richness than the loosely structured bioblitz (e.g., 73 vs. 45 bird species and 104 vs. 63 insect families from the RRSS vs. loosely structured bioblitz, respectively). Models fit to the RRSS data identified seasonal patterns in avian community composition and allowed for estimation of habitat–occupancy relationships for insect taxa. The RRSS protocol has potential for broad transferability as a standardized, quick, and inexpensive way to inventory biodiversity and estimate ecological parameters while providing an outreach opportunity.  相似文献   

13.
Land-use change via human development is a major driver of biodiversity loss. To reduce these impacts, billions of dollars are spent on biodiversity offsets. However, studies evaluating offset project effectiveness that examine components such as the overall compliance and function of projects remain rare. We reviewed 577 offsetting projects in freshwater ecosystems that included the metrics project size, type of aquatic system (e.g., wetland and creek), offsetting measure (e.g., enhancement, restoration, and creation), and an assessment of the projects’ compliance and functional success. Project information was obtained from scientific and government databases and gray literature. Despite considerable investment in offsetting projects, crucial problems persisted. Although compliance and function were related to each other, a high level of compliance did not guarantee a high degree of function. However, large projects relative to area had better function than small projects. Function improved when projects targeted productivity or specific ecosystem features and when multiple complementary management targets were in place. Restorative measures were more likely to achieve targets than creating entirely new ecosystems. Altogether the relationships we found highlight specific ecological processes that may help improve offsetting outcomes.  相似文献   

14.
Summary Interactions were studied among alkaloid-containing legumes (Erythrina corallodendrum andSpartium junceum) and non-toxic plants (Citrus sinensis, Cucurbita moschata andEuphorbia tirucalli), several polyphagous homopterans,Aphis craccivora (Aphididae),Icerya purchasi, I. aegyptiaca (Margarodidae),Lepidosaphes ulmi (Diaspididae) andPlanococcus citri (Pseudococcidae), and some major natural enemies of these homopterans. Significant reductions in survival due to negative effects of alkaloid containing as compared with non-alkaloidal plants were recorded for the predatorsRodolia cardinalis andChilocorus bipustulatus, but not forCryptolaemus montrouzieri (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae),Chrysoperla carnea (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae) andSympherobius sanctus (Neuroptera: Sympherobiidae). The development time of the larvae or pupae ofR. cardinalis, C. carnea andS. sanctus was longer on the toxic plants than on the non-toxic ones. The percentage of parasitism ofA. craccivora collected from the non-alkaloidal plantsVicia palaestina andMelilotus albus was much higher than that onS. junceum. The parasitoid complexes ofA. craccivora differed between both plant groups. The nutritive value of honeydew ofI. purchasi andA. craccivora, as expressed by the life span ofEncyrtus infelix (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) adults, was also investigated. Life spans were significantly longer when the wasps fed on honeydew produced on non-alkaloidal plants (C. sinensis andPittosporum tobira) than on alkaloid containing plants whenI. purchasi — but notA. craccivora — was the producer. It is suggested that the chemical defense ofE. corallodendrum andS. junceum is exploited by polyphagous phytophages to reduce predation. In nature, population growth and density of four of the investigated homopterans are conspicuously high when they developed on the alkaloid containing plant species, and very low on non-alkaloid plants. The efficiency of their natural enemies may be reduced by sequestration of alkaloids (or other toxic plant compounds) or their transfer into excreted honeydew. Therefore it is assumed that a generalist phytophagous homopteran may be protected from its natural enemies, although at different rates of efficiency, if it can safely sequester the host allelochemical when it develops on toxic species within its host range.  相似文献   

15.
An argument is presented in which areas of natural arsenic contamination of modern groundwaters throughout Asia have a common origin. Arsenic originally accumulated in oceanic ferro-manganoan sediments of the eastern Palaeo-Tethys. This was further concentrated through oceanic crustal extinction in what later became the south-east Chinese accreted mineralised terrain. Proto-Himalayan uplift of this area created the palaeo-drainage systems of the Ganges – Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Mekong, and Red Rivers, with consequent headwater erosion of arsenic-rich sediments. Their downstream deposition as immature and easily redistributed Neogene sandstones, silts, and iron-rich clays has created secondary and tertiary reservoirs of adsorbed and authigenic arsenic, from which the current arsenic-rich groundwaters have evolved. Considering river basins within the above palaeo-hydrogeological framework provides a basis for assessing the risk of arsenic in groundwater basins of south and south-eastern Asia.  相似文献   

16.
Summary Two South American polyphagous leaf beetles,Diabrotica speciosa andCerotoma arcuata, selectively accumulated the bitter tasting compound 23,24-dihydrocucurbitacin D in their body after ingesting root tissues of cucurbit plants. Similarly, three Asian Cucurbitaceae-feeding specialists in the genusAulacophora were found to sequester the same compound. Cucurbitacin analogs were shown to deter feeding by a bird predator, indicating an allomonal role for these compounds in cucurbitacin-associated chrysomelid leaf beetles both of New and Old Worlds. The strong affinity to cucurbitacins, selective sequestration of the analogs and consequent protection from predators suggested an ecological adaptation mechanism developed in common among these two geographically isolated subtribes in the Luperini.  相似文献   

17.
Large, intact areas of tropical peatland are highly threatened at a global scale by the expansion of commercial agriculture and other forms of economic development. Conserving peatlands on a landscape scale, with their hydrology intact, is of international conservation importance to preserve their distinctive biodiversity and ecosystem services and maintain their resilience to future environmental change. We explored threats to and opportunities for conserving remaining intact tropical peatlands; thus, we excluded peatlands of Indonesia and Malaysia, where extensive deforestation, drainage, and conversion to plantations means conservation in this region can protect only small fragments of the original ecosystem. We focused on a case study, the Pastaza‐Marañón Foreland Basin (PMFB) in Peru, which is among the largest known intact tropical peatland landscapes in the world and is representative of peatland vulnerability. Maintenance of the hydrological conditions critical for carbon storage and ecosystem function of peatlands is, in the PMFB, primarily threatened by expansion of commercial agriculture linked to new transport infrastructure that is facilitating access to remote areas. There remain opportunities in the PMFB and elsewhere to develop alternative, more sustainable land‐use practices. Although some of the peatlands in the PMFB fall within existing legally protected areas, this protection does not include the most carbon‐dense (domed pole forest) areas. New carbon‐based conservation instruments (e.g., REDD+, Green Climate Fund), developing markets for sustainable peatland products, transferring land title to local communities, and expanding protected areas offer pathways to increased protection for intact tropical peatlands in Amazonia and elsewhere, such as those in New Guinea and Central Africa which remain, for the moment, broadly beyond the frontier of commercial development.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract: In East Africa fire and grazing by wild and domestic ungulates maintain savannas, and pastoralists historically set fires and herded livestock through the use of temporary corrals called bomas. In recent decades traditional pastoral practices have declined, and this may be affecting biodiversity. We investigated the effects of prescribed fires and bomas on savanna bird communities in East Africa during the first and second dry seasons of the year (respectively before and after the rains that mark the onset of breeding for most birds). We compared abundance, richness, and community composition on 9‐ha burned plots, recently abandoned bomas, and control plots in the undisturbed matrix habitat over a 3‐year period. Generally, recently burned areas and abandoned bomas attracted greater densities of birds and had different community assemblages than the surrounding matrix. The effects of disturbances were influenced by interactions between primary productivity, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index, and time. Bird densities were highest and a greater proportion of species was observed on burned plots in the months following the fires. Drought conditions equalized bird densities across treatments within 1 year, and individuals from a greater proportion of species were more commonly observed on abandoned bomas. Yearly fluctuations in abundance were less pronounced on bomas than on burns, which indicate that although fire may benefit birds in the short term, bomas may have a more‐lasting positive effect and provide resources during droughts. Several Palearctic migrants were attracted to burned plots regardless of rainfall, which indicates continued fire suppression may threaten their already‐declining populations. Most notably, the paucity of birds observed on the controls suggests that the current structure of the matrix developed as a result of fire suppression. Traditional pastoralism appears critical to the maintenance of avian diversity in these savannas.  相似文献   

19.
20.
How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well‐developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one‐time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost‐effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost‐effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost‐effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost‐effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost‐effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost‐effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost‐effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost‐effective conservation under uncertainty.  相似文献   

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