Windows of opportunity: addressing climate uncertainty through adaptation plan implementation

There is a pressing need for municipalities and regions to create urban form suited to current as well as future climates, but adaptation planning uptake has been slow. This is particularly unfortunate because patterns of urban form interact with climate change in ways that can reduce, or intensify, the impact of overall global change. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of climate change is a significant barrier to implementing adaptation planning. Focusing on implementation of adaptation and phasing of policy reduces this barrier. It removes time as a decision marker, instead arguing for an initial comprehensive plan to prevent maladaptive policy choices, implemented incrementally after testing the micro-climate outcomes of previous interventions. Policies begin with no-regrets decisions that reduce the long-term need for more intensive adaptive actions and generate immediate policy benefits, while gradually enabling transformative infrastructure and design responses to increased climate impacts. Global and local indicators assume a larger role in the process, to evaluate when tipping points are in sight. We use case studies from two exemplary municipal plans to demonstrate this method's usefulness. While framed for urban planning, the approach is applicable to natural resource managers and others who must plan with uncertainty.     

Climate change adaptation at different levels of government: Characteristics and conditions of policy change

Climate change adaptation strategies that aim to minimize harm and maximize benefits related to climate change impacts have mushroomed at all levels of government in recent years. While many studies have explored barriers that stand in the way of their implementation, the factors determining their potential to mainstream adaptation into various sectors are less clear. In the present paper, we aim to address this gap for two international, six national, and six local adaptation strategies. Based on document analyses and 35 semi‐structured interviews, the 14 case studies also explore in how far the factors facilitating climate change adaptation are similar across levels of government or level‐specific. Although located at three different levels of government, we find that the 14 adaptation strategies analyzed here represent “one‐size‐fits‐all governance arrangements” that are characterized by voluntariness and a lack institutionalization. Since adaptation strategies are relatively weak coordination hubs that are unable to force adaptation onto sectoral policy agendas, they rely mainly on sectoral self‐interest in adapting to climate change, largely determined by problem pressure. We conclude that one‐size‐fits‐all governance arrangements are rarely adequate responses to complex challenges, such as climate change. Although climate change adaptation depends more on framework conditions such as problem pressure than on administrative or governance features, the findings presented here can help to understand under what circumstances adaptation is likely to make progress.     

Governing climate change in Dutch cities: anchoring local climate strategies in organisation,policy and practical implementation

Although Dutch cities were among the forerunners in local climate policy, a systematic overview on climate mitigation and adaptation policy is still missing. This study aims to fill this gap by analysing 25 Dutch cities using indicators for the level of anchoring in policy, organisation and practical implementation as well as multi-level relations. Since Tilburg, Amsterdam, Den Haag and Rotterdam show a higher performance than other Dutch cities, these four cities are used as reference cities. The findings suggest that structural integration of climate mitigation and adaptation is limited in Dutch cities. The study points at three recent trends in local climate governance in the Netherlands: (i) decentralisation within municipal organisations, (ii) externalisation initiatives that place climate policy outside the municipal organisation and (iii) regionalisation with neighbouring municipalities and the provincial government.     

Planning for cooler cities: a plan quality evaluation for Urban Heat Island consideration

ABSTRACT

City strategic plans and enabling policies provide a framework for and inform future development across multiple scales. An exemplar city strategic plan will be one based on evidence, enabled by complementary policy outcomes, and built on the knowledge of the existing landscape. This study evaluated the plan quality of eighteen metropolitan strategic plans for city members in the 100 Resilient Cities initiative. A protocol was developed containing thirty-two indicators to assess plans capacity to act as a strategic planning tool to develop, analyse and implement strategies for the Urban Heat Island (UHI) and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The evaluation indicated that strategies addressing the UHI are rarely included in metropolitan plans. Strategic plans showed a lack of evidence-base to inform the potential actions. Urban warming is often linked to extreme weather events anticipated under climate change, not the UHI as a systemic and increasing phenomenon. We recommend that the pathway to addressing UHI mitigation and adaptation may lie in its nexus to aspects of climate change that concurrently can serve to support liveable and resilient cities.     

Adaptation planning for sea level rise: a study of US coastal cities

Sea level rise (SLR) is expected, even without greenhouse gas emissions. As SLR is inevitable, adapting to its impacts has received increasing attention, and local governments are the key actors in this emerging agenda. This study indicates that adaptation planning for SLR should be integrated into two local major planning mechanisms in the United States: the local comprehensive plans and hazard mitigation plans. By evaluating 36 plans from 15 US coastal cities that are considered at high risk and vulnerable to rising sea levels, the results demonstrate that SLR is widely identified, but the overall quality of the plans to address it requires significant improvement. A detailed table of selected plans' characteristics is also provided as a lens on how localities tackle this challenging issue. The paper concludes with planning suggestions for coastal communities to better adapt to SLR.     

Risk and vulnerability analysis: A feasible process for local climate adaptation in Sweden?

Climate change is an important new challenge for local authorities. This study analyses the potential for using the Swedish mandatory process for risk and vulnerability analysis (RVA) as a vehicle to improve local climate adaptation work. An advantage with RVA is its comprehensive approach in dealing with all relevant threats and all vital functions of society. In order to test the applicability of incorporating climate adaptation into RVA, we studied practical experiences from three Swedish municipalities. In all municipalities, a pre-study to identify relevant climate-induced events was performed. In one municipality, this was followed by a more detailed analysis of the potential impacts of these events on the functions of the various administrations and companies within the local authority. Problems identified in successful integration of climate change into the municipal RVA process were lack of sufficient knowledge to identify the impacts of climate change on the level of the respective specialist or district administration and lack of resources to perform the analysis. There were also some difficulties in including a long-term perspective relevant for climate adaptation into RVA, which usually focuses on current threats. A positive outcome was that work on extreme climate events in RVA provided a traceable method to identify events with a potentially great impact on the function of local society and results that could be fed into other ongoing processes, such as spatial planning and housing plans.     

Adapting to Climate Change at the Local Level: The Spatial Planning Response

Climate change is a major issue for all levels of government, global, national and local. Local authorities' responses to climate change have tended to concentrate on their role in reducing greenhouse gases. However, the scientific consensus is that we also need to adapt to unavoidable climate change. Spatial planning at a local level has a critical anticipatory role to play in promoting robust adaptation. This paper reviews the shift in local authorities' planning policies for climate change adaptation in the UK since 2000, and provides evidence of underlying attitudes amongst planning professionals to climate change. It shows that, while the issue of climate change is becoming recognized with respect to flood risk, the wider implications (for instance, for biodiversity and water resources) are not yet integrated into plans. The reasons for this lie in lack of political support and lack of engagement of the planning profession with climate change networks. But the paper also argues there are difficulties in acknowledging the need for adaptation at the local level, with the short-term horizons of local plans at odds with perceptions of the long-term implications of climate change.     

Adapting to Climate Change at the Local Level: The Spatial Planning Response

Abstract

Climate change is a major issue for all levels of government, global, national and local. Local authorities' responses to climate change have tended to concentrate on their role in reducing greenhouse gases. However, the scientific consensus is that we also need to adapt to unavoidable climate change. Spatial planning at a local level has a critical anticipatory role to play in promoting robust adaptation. This paper reviews the shift in local authorities' planning policies for climate change adaptation in the UK since 2000, and provides evidence of underlying attitudes amongst planning professionals to climate change. It shows that, while the issue of climate change is becoming recognized with respect to flood risk, the wider implications (for instance, for biodiversity and water resources) are not yet integrated into plans. The reasons for this lie in lack of political support and lack of engagement of the planning profession with climate change networks. But the paper also argues there are difficulties in acknowledging the need for adaptation at the local level, with the short-term horizons of local plans at odds with perceptions of the long-term implications of climate change.     

Government response to climate change in China: a study of provincial and municipal plans

In this paper, we provide an overview of local and regional climate change plans in China by scrutinizing planning documents from 16 cities, four autonomous regions, and 22 provinces. We develop and apply an evaluation protocol to understand goals, process, and strategies in these plans. We also conduct interviews with government officials to provide a context for subnational climate change planning. The results indicate that current climate change planning in China is characterized by the ‘top-down’ approach, in which the central governmental incentives play a vital role in shaping provincial and municipal plans. In addition, most plans have the following issues: vague definition of what characterizes a low-carbon city/region; deficiency in the quality of greenhouse gas inventory and reduction targets; insufficient strategies provided to respond to climate change; inadequate stakeholder engagement; and weak horizontal coordination. Finally, we offer recommendations to improve climate change planning in China.     

Nigeria’s Response to the Impacts of Climate Change: Developing Resilient and Ethical Adaptation Options

Global climate change will have a strong impact on Nigeria, particularly on agricultural production and associated livelihoods. Although there is a growing scientific consensus about the impact of climate change, efforts so far in Nigeria to deal with these impacts are still rudimentary and not properly coordinated. There is little evidence of any pragmatic approach towards tracking climate change in order to develop an evidence base on which to formulate national adaptation strategies. Although Nigeria is not alone in this regard, the paper asserts that National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy could help address this situation by guiding the integration of climate change adaptation into government policies, strategies, and programs, with particular focus on the most vulnerable groups and the agricultural sectors. There is an urgent need to adopt abatement strategies that will provide economic incentives to reduce the risk from disasters, such as developing agricultural practices that are more resilient to a changing climate.     

The relevance of physical forces on land-use change and planning process

This study analysed the importance of physical forces on land-use change, on the planning framework in a Portuguese periurban area. A temporal matrix showing the trajectories of land transformation was obtained. A multivariate redundancy analysis explored the importance of physical parameters on temporal and spatial land-use change. A content analysis on urban or municipal master plans was made framing the importance of physical parameters on the planning process. The results highlighted a consistent trajectory of profound land-use changes with distinctive trajectories, with increasingly complex patterns with a limited dependence on physical variables. The trajectories were more related to the planning framework, where political actors and planning managers seemed to be most important. A theoretical model balancing three main components – physical forces, actors, and land transformation (DFA-C model) is proposed, reflecting the informal relationships between physical parameters and actors during the planning process.     

The role of scale in integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

By using a scale framework, we examine how cross-scale interactions influence the implementation of climate adaptation and mitigation actions in different urban sectors. Based on stakeholder interviews and content analysis of strategies and projects relevant to climate adaptation and mitigation in the cities of Copenhagen and Helsinki, we present empirical examples of synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation that are driven by the cross-scale interactions. These examples show that jurisdictional and institutional scales shape the implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies, projects and tasks at the management scale, creating benefits of integrated solutions, but also challenges. Investigating the linkages between adaptation and mitigation through a scale framework provides new knowledge for urban climate change planning and decision-making. The results increase the understanding of why adaptation and mitigation are sometimes handled as two separate policy areas and also why attempts to integrate the two policies may fail.     

Achieving sustainability goals for urban coasts in the US Northeast: research needs and challenges

In the wake of Hurricane Sandy and other recent extreme events, urban coastal communities in the northeast region of the United States are beginning or stepping up efforts to integrate climate adaptation and resilience into long-term coastal planning. Natural and nature-based shoreline strategies have emerged as essential components of coastal resilience and are frequently cited by practitioners, scientists, and the public for the wide range of ecosystem services they can provide. However, there is limited quantitative information associating particular urban shoreline design strategies with specific levels of ecosystem service provision, and research on this issue is not always aligned with decision context and decision-maker needs. Engagement between the research community, local government officials and sustainability practitioners, and the non-profit and private sectors can help bridge these gaps. A workshop to bring together these groups discussed research gaps and challenges in integrating ecosystem services into urban sustainability planning in the urban northeast corridor. Many themes surfaced repeatedly throughout workshop deliberations, including the challenges associated with ecosystem service valuation, the transferability of research and case studies within and outside the region, and the opportunity for urban coastal areas to be a focal point for education and outreach efforts related to ecosystem services.     

Citizen Advisory Groups in Remedial Action Planning: Paper Tiger or Key to Success?

In accordance with the Great Lakes Water Quality agreement and the Great Lakes Critical Protections Act, the Great Lakes States have developed (or are developing) remedial action plans (RAPs) for severely degraded areas of concern (AOCs). To provide citizen input into the planning process, state environmental agencies have established citizens' advisory groups (CAGs) for each AOC. These CAGs have been hailed as the key to RAP success, yet little is known about their role in the planning process. In this paper, we examine the constitution, organization and activities of CAGs in three Lake Michigan AOCs by comparing CAGs to municipal planning commissions, citizen advisory commissions and councils of government. We find that CAGs, like other advisory bodies, can provide public input into the planning process, foster communication between government agencies and special interest groups, and facilitate intergovernmental co-ordination. Also like other advisory bodies, however, CAGs can fail to represent all constituencies in the AOCs, have limited influence on agencies plans and activities, and lack the authority to assure the co-operation of local governments.     

Integration of biodiversity in urban planning instruments in developing countries: the case of Kumasi Metropolitan Assembly,Ghana

There is a growing concern about integrating biodiversity into urban planning, yet, discussions are concentrated on science-informed planning in general. Few have explored the integration of biodiversity in specific planning instruments, especially in African cities. This paper examines how and what components of biodiversity are integrated into master plans, medium-term plans, building codes, zoning codes and permits in Kumasi City, Ghana. There is limited integration of biodiversity in most planning instruments as they were mostly designed on the basis of health, safety and economy. Allied to lack of funding and public participation, biodiversity in Kumasi is under significant threat from rapid urban development. Creating an opportunity for popular participation and decentralizing the planning system could set the preconditions for local integration and revision of instruments. Simplifying the definition of biodiversity could increase local planners’ appreciation, understanding and their ability to make use of biodiversity data.     

“There is nothing political in it”: triggers of local political leaders' engagement in climate adaptation

Local government is attributed a vital role in climate-change adaptation. Previous studies contend that conflicting priorities, insufficient institutional incentives and knowledge of risks, and inadequate resources all impede local climate adaptation. Though the importance of local political support in enabling climate adaptation is widely acknowledged, the views of local politicians have rarely been analysed. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with local politicians in Sweden, we explore what affects their engagement in climate adaptation. The study claims that climate adaptation contrary to mitigation is not viewed as political beyond directing attention and sanctioning guidelines set by officials. A limited number of interviewees claim a more strategic political role in adaptation. The combined effect of institutional incentives (e.g. fragmented national guidelines, unappealing goals, and lack of funding), relative weight in local politics, and ability to exercise political leadership (e.g. campaign value, public and media pressure, and lack of ideology) is perceived as too insignificant to trigger strong political engagement. In less-populous municipalities, adaptive measures were highly valued for demonstrating political action.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to heat in cities: perspectives and perceptions of local adaptation decision-makers in Sweden

Climate change vulnerability is disproportionately distributed between different population segments in society. This study qualitatively explores how key stakeholders in municipalities (i.e. planning and operational staff in municipalities and the vulnerable themselves) construct social vulnerability in relation to climate change with a specific focus on thermal stress (i.e. heat waves) and which adaptive responses they identify at different levels. The empirical material consists of five focus groups with actors in a large Swedish municipality where the “Vulnerability Factor Card Game” was used as stimulus material to create 10 fictional individuals. The results show that there is a substantial amount of local knowledge about vulnerability drivers and inter-relations between social factors and vulnerability. Local decision-makers also defined a wide range of possible adaptation measures at different municipal levels. Our study clearly indicates that contextualised knowledge, which could complement the quantitative approaches in research, is abundant among municipal planners, staff employed at municipal operations such as health care, and among the vulnerable themselves. This knowledge remains untapped by research to a great extent and only seems to have an insignificant influence on policy-making. In particular, how impacts vary between different social and demographic groups and how adaptation strategies that target the most vulnerable could be defined are of great interest. The present study clearly indicates that social hierarchy may produce increased inequality in the specific context of climate change, vulnerability and adaptive responses at different levels.     

Implementation of the ecosystem services approach in Swedish municipal planning

While ecosystem-based planning approaches are increasingly promoted through international and national policies, municipalities are still struggling with translating them into practice. Against this background, this paper aims to increase the knowledge of current advances and possible ways to support the implementation of the ecosystem services (ES) approach at the municipal level. More specifically, we analyze how ES have been integrated into comprehensive planning within the municipality of Malmö in Sweden over the last 60 years, a declared forerunner in local environmental governance. Based on a content analysis of comprehensive plans over the period 1956–2014 and interviews with municipal stakeholders, this paper demonstrates how planning has shifted over time toward a more holistic view of ES and their significance for human well-being and urban sustainability. Both explicit and implicit applications of the ES concept were found in the analyzed comprehensive plans and associated programs and projects. Our study shows how these applications reflect international, national, and local policy changes, and indicates how municipalities can gradually integrate the ES approach into comprehensive planning and facilitate the transition from implicit to more explicit knowledge use.