Initial progress in implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): a review of evidence from countries

The global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) commenced in 2016 and provide an evidence-based framework for sustainable development planning and programming until 2030. There is emerging international practice and a growing catalogue of related reviews, assessments, guidelines and publications. While the expert community is clearly emphasising the need to adopt evidence- and science-based approaches to SDG implementation, policymakers now face the challenge of implementing the SDGs simultaneously in a coherent and integrated manner. Regular systematic reviews of national progress and approaches to implementing the SDGs are advisable to ensure that emerging science and knowledge is effectively informing national practice. This paper reviews the recent academic and expert literature as well as national experience in implementing the SDGs in 26 countries. It uses a systematic approach to analyse the degree to which key implementation stages and approaches recommended in the expert literature are being adopted and applied to support national SDG implementation on-the-ground. The review highlights that while progress has been made in some initial planning stages, key gaps remain in terms of the assessment of interlinkages, trade-offs and synergies between targets. Gaps are also clearly evident in the adoption of systems thinking and integrated analytical approaches and models. This is problematic as it may undermine effective implementation and the transformative potential of the SDGs. As more countries turn their attention to the SDGs, the review underscores the considerable risk that they will pursue the same ‘siloed’ or ‘linear’ approaches to sustainable development that have met with limited success in the past.     

Validating riverine transport and speciation models using nuclear reactor-derived radiocobalt

Risk assessment of intentional or accidental discharges of toxic substances into river systems requires combined hydraulic and chemical modeling. Periodic discharges of known volumes with low radioactivity by the Beznau nuclear reactor (Switzerland) serve as validation tracers for both river flow and chemical speciation simulation. Validation of the former has been achieved by comparison of modeled and measured arrival times of radiocobalt along a 65 km transect with a maximum reaction period of 24 hours. Modeled breakthrough curves coincide well with measurements collected during three field campaigns, in spite of the fact that sorption and sedimentation processes were not activated during simulation. This gives indirect evidence of inefficient cobalt sorption. Particle/solution distribution measurements carried out during breakthrough allow further validation of our speciation approach, which is based on Tableau setup of inorganic reactions combined with sorption and organic complexation. Modeled and measured speciation results confirm recent observations of enhanced complexation of cobalt with dissolved organic substances, which significantly reduces particle sorption. The large variability of conditional stability constants for sorption and complexation reactions, for sorption site densities, and for organic ligand concentrations explains the variability of published particle-solution distribution coefficients.     

Review and assessment of models used to predict the fate of radionuclides in lakes

A variety of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in fresh water ecosystems have been developed and tested during recent decades within the framework of many international research projects. These models have been implemented in Computerised Decision Support Systems (CDSS) for assisting the appropriate management of fresh water bodies contaminated by radionuclides. The assessment of the state-of-the-art and the consolidation of these CDSSs has been envisaged, by the scientific community, as a primary necessity for the rationalisation of the sector. The classification of the approaches of the various models, the determination of their essential features, the identification of similarities and differences among them and the definition of their application domains are all essential for the harmonisation of the existing CDSSs and for the possible development and improvement of reference models that can be widely applied in different environmental conditions. The present paper summarises the results of the assessment and evaluation of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in lacustrine ecosystems. Such models were developed and tested within major projects financed by the European Commission during its 4th Framework Programme (1994-1998). The work done during the recent decades by many modellers at an international level has produced some consolidated results that are widely accepted by most experts. Nevertheless, some new results have arisen from recent studies and certain model improvements are still necessary.     

Speciation and surface structure of inorganic arsenic in solid phases: a review

Accurate determination of individual arsenic species is critical because the toxicology, mobility, and adsorptivity of arsenic vary substantially with its chemical forms and oxidation states. Separation techniques together with techniques for chemical identification make it possible to determine the combinational forms and oxidation states of arsenic in solid phases. Selective sequential extraction is often employed to determine operationally defined fractions, but it has a poor precision and selectivity. Direct methods, based on X-ray techniques and vibrational spectroscopy, have been developed to analyze the valence, local coordination, protonation, and other properties of arsenic in solid phases. Extensive research studies in the literature have been performed to elucidate the interfacial reactions between inorganic arsenic and solid surfaces of sulfides, and Fe, Al, and Mn (hydro)oxides. Outer-sphere and inner-sphere complex (monodentate mononuclear, bidentate mononuclear, and bidentate binuclear complex) models have been proposed to interpret the sorption mechanisms. The nature of the surface complexes has been inspected by spectroscopic methods but remains controversial. This paper focuses on the recent advancement in arsenic speciation in solid phases and covers relevant methodological, analytical and modeling aspects. The identification of arsenic species in natural materials, however, is complicated by the presence of multiple species, and the applications of instrumental methods are usually limited due to their comparatively high detection limits. Development of advanced in-situ methods with high sensitivity, therefore, is required.     

Current status of models in determining optimum chlorination practices

Interest in mathematical models for predicting the fate of chlorine in natural waters arose in the 1970's, and evolution of these models has proceeded rapidly. The crudest of the models incorporate empirical estimates of chemical reactions in a single term to predict generic chlorine products such as total residual chlorine or free residual chlorine. A second order of model complexity includes use of multifactor predictor variables to approximate losses of chlorine via chemical reaction, but predictions are still couched in terms of generic chlorine products. The most sophisticated of the current models are based on specific chemical reactions and predict the identity and quantity of some (but not all) of the products resulting from chlorination of natural waters. None of these models have been sufficiently verified, but each has some potential value for assessment of environmental effects of chlorinated discharges. Evaluation of the strengths and weaknesses of existing models is presented to stimulate further model development and to direct the focus of chemical studies toward collection of data most critical for derivation of input parameters.     

Inter-taxa differences in root uptake of 103/106Ru by plants

Ruthenium-106 is of potential radioecological importance but soil-to-plant Transfer Factors for it are available only for few plant species. A Residual Maximum Likelihood (REML) procedure was used to construct a database of relative (103/106)Ru concentrations in 114 species of flowering plants including 106 species from experiments and 12 species from the literature (with 4 species in both). An Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), coded using a recent phylogeny for flowering plants, was used to identify a significant phylogenetic effect on relative mean (103/106)Ru concentrations in flowering plants. There were differences of 2,465-fold in the concentration to which plant species took up (103/106)Ru. Thirty-nine percent of the variance in inter-species differences could be ascribed to the taxonomic level of Order or above. Plants in the Orders Geraniales and Asterales had notably high uptake of (103/106)Ru compared to other plant groups. Plants on the Commelinoid monocot clades, and especially the Poaceae, had notably low uptake of (103/106)Ru. These data demonstrate that plant species are not independent units for (103/106)Ru concentrations but are linked through phylogeny. It is concluded that models of soil-to-plant transfer of (103/106)Ru should assume that; neither soil variables alone affect transfer nor plant species are independent units, and taking account of plant phylogeny might aid predictions of soil-to-plant transfer of (103/106)Ru, especially for species for which Transfer Factors are not available.     

Incorporating soil structure and root distribution into plant uptake models for radionuclides: toward a more physically based transfer model

Most biosphere and contamination assessment models are based on uniform soil conditions, since single coefficients are used to describe the transfer of contaminants to the plant. Indeed, physical and chemical characteristics and root distribution are highly variable in the soil profile. These parameters have to be considered in the formulation of a more realistic soil-plant transfer model for naturally structured soils. The impact of monolith soil structure (repacked and structured) on Zn and Mn uptake by wheat was studied in a controlled tracer application (dye and radioactive) experiment. We used Brilliant Blue and Sulforhodamine B to dye flow lines and 65Zn and 54Mn to trace soil distribution and plant uptake of surface-applied particle-reactive contaminants. Spatial variation of the soil water content during irrigation and plant growth informs indirectly about tracer and root location in the soil profile. In the structured monolith, a till pan at a depth of 30 cm limited vertical water flow and root penetration into deeper soil layers and restricted tracers to the upper third of the monolith. In the repacked monolith, roots were observed at all depths and fingering flow allowed for the fast appearance of all tracers in the outflow. These differences between the two monoliths are reflected by significantly higher 54Mn and 65Zn uptake in wheat grown on the structured monolith. The higher uptake of Mn can be modelled on the basis of radionuclide and root distribution as a function of depth and using a combination of preferential flow and rooting. The considerably higher uptake of Zn requires transfer factors which account for variable biochemical uptake as a function of location.     

Integrated models for environmental management: Issues of process and design

Integration has become an important element of natural resource management over recent decades, and managers are now required to consider the social, economic, ecological, and bio-physical effects of alternative management interventions. The problem of managing across many issues is sometimes tackled by putting together a number of individual models. For this approach to work effectively, attention must be paid to both the technical details of the interactions between system components and also to the processes through which these integrated models are developed. This paper explores technical and social aspects of the development of integrated models for environmental management, and discusses two cases within which open modelling and interface prototyping processes were undertaken. The results of this exploration suggest that, for models to be used and accepted widely in integrated environmental management, developers must undertake a process that involves stakeholders and potential users, that exploits the current knowledge, and that illustrates the influence of uncertainty in the technical knowledge. This requires strict attention to the social and technical process of modelling, as well as additional skills in group facilitation and shared vision exploration, so that user expectations can be developed and met in such a way that the best information available is used by decision makers.     

Probabilistic biokinetic modelling of radiocaesium uptake in Arctic seal species: verification of modelled data with empirical observations

The necessity to provide information about radionuclide concentrations in Arctic marine species has been heightened in recent years due to a number of accidents in Arctic regions involving nuclear vessels and the presence of a large number of potential radioactive contamination sources. The provision for such information is largely dependent on the use of radionuclide uptake and transfer models. The uptake of radionuclides in Arctic seal species in this study has been modelled using a probabilistic biokinetic approach. In this paper, model results are compared with empirical data from relevant samples taken within the Arctic region. Results indicate that the model performs well when estimating concentrations of (137)Cs in two seal species for both median values and reproduction of the distribution of data values, but not as well for a third seal species. Likely factors affecting the results are the probability density functions used for the input parameters.     

Modelling livelihoods and household resilience to droughts using Bayesian networks

Over the last four decades, the Indian government has been investing heavily in watershed development (WSD) programmes that are intended to improve the livelihoods of rural agrarian communities and maintain or improve natural resource condition. Given the massive investment in WSD in India, and the recent shift from micro-scale programmes (<500 ha) to meso-scale (~5000 ha) clusters, robust methodological frameworks are needed to measure and analyse impacts of interventions across landscapes as well as between and within communities. In this paper, the sustainable livelihoods framework is implemented using Bayesian networks (BNs) to develop models of drought resilience and household livelihoods. Analysis of the natural capital component model provides little evidence that watershed development has influenced household resilience to drought and indicators of natural capital, beyond an increased area of irrigation due to greater access to groundwater. BNs have proved a valuable tool for implementing the sustainable livelihoods framework in a retrospective evaluation of implemented WSD programmes. Many of the challenges of evaluating watershed interventions using BNs are the same as for other analytical approaches. These are reliance on retrospective studies, identification and measurement of relevant indicators and isolating intervention impacts from contemporaneous events. The establishment of core biophysical and socio-economic indicators measured through longitudinal household surveys and monitoring programmes will be critical to the success of BNs as an evaluation tool for meso-scale WSD.     

A review and model assessment of (32)P and (33)P uptake to biota in freshwater systems

Bioaccumulation of key short-lived radionuclides such as ¹³¹I and ^32,33P may be over-estimated since concentration ratios (CRs) are often based on values for the corresponding stable isotope which do not account for radioactive decay during uptake via the food chain. This study presents estimates for bioaccumulation of radioactive phosphorus which account for both radioactive decay and varying ambient levels of stable P in the environment. Recommended interim CR values for radioactive forms of P as a function of bioavailable stable phosphorus in the water body are presented. Values of CR are presented for three different trophic levels of the aquatic food chain; foodstuffs from all three trophic levels may potentially be consumed by humans. It is concluded that current recommended values of the CR are likely to be significantly over-estimated for radioactive phosphorus in many freshwater systems, particularly lowland rivers. Further research is recommended to field-validate these models and assess their uncertainty. The relative importance of food-chain uptake and direct uptake from water are also assessed from a review of the literature. It can be concluded that food-chain uptake is the dominant accumulation pathway in fish and hence accumulation factors for radioactive phosphorus in farmed fish are likely to be significantly lower than those for wild fish.     

Ecological, cultural, and economic approaches to managing artisanal fisheries

Approaches towards the management of artisanal fisheries have been enlightening the scientific literature for approximately the last 20 years. Coming from diverse disciplines such as anthropology, biology, economy, and ecology (especially human ecology), these approaches have dealt with common theory, strategies for cooperation, decision-making models, cultural contexts, and local knowledge. Fishery management depends on an understanding of the interactions between humans and aquatic resources, and in case of indigenous or of native populations, forestry resources are also considered for livelihoods. Acquiring an understanding of the local knowledge about fish and other resources, of collective local arrangements and institutions, of market interactions, and of the decision-making processes of fishers is fundamental for the management of artisanal fisheries. This review includes historical and current approaches associated with the management of artisanal fisheries. These approaches include the following: (a) cultural and human ecological approaches, including ecological models such as optimal foraging theory; (b) institutional approaches, including processes of cooperation associated with local knowledge and institutions; and (c) current ecological-economic propositions towards fishery management, such as payments for environmental services. This revision is illustrated through examples, in particular, of data collected among coastal artisanal fisheries of the SE Atlantic Forest in Brazil.     

Partitioning of radiostrontium in marine aqueous suspensions: laboratory experiments and modeling studies

Quantitative information on the adsorption/desorption of radionuclides by suspended loads is important in the study of their environmental behavior. In this paper, controlled laboratory experiments were directed at studying the kinetic transfer and final distribution of radiostrontium in aqueous suspensions using 85Sr as tracer. The results showed that the uptake of 85Sr in seawater can be properly described by one reversible-reaction model. However, in the absence of competitive cations, it has been shown that two reactions of different characteristic times are unambiguously involved in the kinetic evolution of adsorption. Thus, a modeling approach consisting of three-box model has been applied. The model predicts in a satisfactory way the time evolution of activities in the dissolved phase and two sites in the particles. Experimental evidence showed, through comparison among kinetic and distribution coefficients corresponding to different conditions, that Ca2+ affects strongly the rate and extent of Sr uptake by suspended particles. On the other hand, distribution coefficients were found to be sensitive to changes in suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentration, exhibiting a reverse effect with this parameter on the adsorption. In addition, desorption from particles is important showing that Sr can be easily released due to cation-exchange processes.     

A reassessment of energy and GDP relationship: the case of Australia

This paper investigates the long- and short-run relationships between energy consumption and economic growth in Australia using the bound testing and the ARDL approach. The analytical framework utilized in this paper includes both production and demand side models and a unified model comprising both production and demand side variables. The energy–GDP relationships are investigated at aggregate as well as several disaggregated energy categories, such as coal, oil, gas and electricity. The possibilities of one or more structural break(s) in the data series are examined by applying the recent advances in techniques. We find that the results of the cointegration tests could be affected by the structural break(s) in the data. It is, therefore, crucial to incorporate the information on structural break(s) in the subsequent modelling and inferences. Moreover, neither the production side nor the demand side framework alone can provide sufficient information to draw an ultimate conclusion on the cointegration and causal direction between energy and output. When alternative frameworks and structural break(s) in time series are explored properly, strong evidence of a bidirectional relationship between energy and output can be observed. The finding is true at both the aggregate and the disaggregate levels of energy consumption.     

Air flow and concentration fields at urban road intersections for improved understanding of personal exposure

This paper reviews the state of knowledge on modelling air flow and concentration fields at road intersections. The first part covers the available literature from the past two decades on experimental (both field and wind tunnel) and modelling activities in order to provide insight into the physical basis of flow behaviour at a typical cross-street intersection. This is followed by a review of associated investigations of the impact of traffic-generated localised turbulence on the concentration fields due to emissions from vehicles. There is a discussion on the role of adequate characterisation of vehicle-induced turbulence in making predictions using hybrid models, combining the merits of conventional approaches with information obtained from more detailed modelling. This concludes that, despite advancements in computational techniques, there are crucial knowledge gaps affecting the parameterisations used in current models for individual exposure. This is specifically relevant to the growing impetus on walking and cycling activities on urban roads in the context of current drives for sustainable transport and healthy living. Due to inherently longer travel times involved during such trips, compared to automotive transport, pedestrians and cyclists are subjected to higher levels of exposure to emissions. Current modelling tools seem to under-predict this exposure because of limitations in their design and in the empirical parameters employed.     

Review and assessment of models for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers

The present paper summarises the results of the review and assessment of state-of-the-art models developed for predicting the migration of radionuclides through rivers. The different approaches of the models to predict the behaviour of radionuclides in lotic ecosystems are presented and compared. The models were classified and evaluated according to their main methodological approaches. The results of an exercise of model application to specific contamination scenarios aimed at assessing and comparing the model performances were described. A critical evaluation and analysis of the uncertainty of the models was carried out. The main factors influencing the inherent uncertainty of the models, such as the incompleteness of the actual knowledge and the intrinsic environmental and biological variability of the processes controlling the behaviour of radionuclides in rivers, are analysed.     

Modelling the joint effects of a metal and a pesticide on reproduction and toxicokinetics in Lumbricid earthworms

It is important to understand the aetiology of interactive mixtures effects (i.e. synergism and antagonism) if results from known cases are to be extrapolated to untested combinations. The key role of toxicokinetics in determining internal concentrations at target sites means that understanding chemical uptake in mixtures is an essential requirement for mechanistic understanding of interactions. In this paper, a combined approach using mixture toxicity testing, toxicokinetic studies and modelling has been used to address the link between joint toxicity and internal concentration. The study is conducted in Lumbricid earthworms with a binary mixture of a metal (nickel) and an organophosphate insecticide (chlorpyrifos) not a priori expected to show interactive toxicity. As expected from their dissimilar modes of action and detoxification, exposure to combinations of nickel and chlorpyrifos resulted in additive toxicity. Measurement of internal concentrations indicated that both chemicals were rapidly accumulated (within 3 days) to equilibrium. When exposed as a mixture, Ni uptake followed the same pattern as found for the single chemical. This was not the case for chlorpyrifos which showed a faster rate of uptake and elimination and a slightly higher equilibrium concentration in a mixture. That the difference in chlorpyrifos kinetics in the mixture did not result in interactive toxicity highlights the need to assess chemical toxicodynamics as well as toxicokinetics. Measurement of chlorpyrifos-oxon identified the presence of this toxic form but implementation of more complex approaches encompassing toxicogenomics and epigenetics are ultimately needed to resolve the toxicokinetic to toxicodynamic link for these chemicals.     

Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide,fluorides, and minor air pollutants: recent trends and research needs

The regulation of the emissions of 'traditional' primary air pollutants (fluorides, sulfur dioxide) has changed the pattern of exposure of ecological systems, with greatly reduced exposure close to sources, but with a smaller effect in some remote areas. Measurements show that recovery is occurring at some sites, in fresh water chemistry (reduced acidity) and in sensitive biota (sustainable fish populations). However, the pattern of change in exposure has not always been simply related to emission reductions. An understanding of responses to recent changes will improve our predictions of the response to future emission changes, both locally and globally. As exposure to 'traditional' pollutants is reduced, the potential for other pollutants to have effects becomes more evident. In the aqueous phase, we need to understand the role of soluble and suspended organics, but this also means explicit recognition of the possibility of phase exchange, and the role of photolytic reactions on plant, soil, and water surfaces. Do highly reactive free radicals in the atmosphere, formed by the action of sunlight on volatile organic compounds, have direct effects on plants? Organic compounds and heavy metals may be bioactive as gases and particles, but for many potentially toxic compounds, the experimental evidence for biotic response is very limited. To evaluate the potential effects of pollutants, we need to understand the pathways by which airborne pollutants enter and react within ecosystems. For vegetation, we have to consider bidirectional fluxes, and distinguish among uptake through stomata, through leaf surfaces, or through roots. There are several challenges for the future. (1) Can we devise experiments that permit exposure of vegetation to gases, particles, and/or aqueous pollutants at 'realistic' concentrations? (2) Can we include the potential interactions with photolytically derived free radicals, and the dynamics of exchange? (3) How do we allow for responses to pollutant mixtures, or the simultaneous exposure to pollutants in gas, particle, and aqueous phases? The recognition of the importance of the dynamic exchange of pollutants between phases will be the key to the development of effective experimental approaches to evaluating cause-effect relationships between pollutant mixtures and ecosystem responses.     

中国工业行业技能偏向型技术变化的实证检验

近年来,我国工业行业技能劳动力的需求快速增加,技能供需矛盾日益突出。虽然有文献认为技能偏向型技术变化是其中的重要原因,但是对技能偏向型技术变化存在性的规范检验几乎一片空白。本文基于经典文献提供的实证方法,以工业全行业和大中型行业为实证对象,规范检验20世纪90年代以来我国工业技术进步的技能偏向性。首先,对技能劳动力就业份额变化进行分解的结果表明,我国工业就业结构技能升级的主导因素是细分行业内而不是细分行业之间技能劳动力就业份额的变化。其次,基于我国工业经济的特性,计量检验了技术进步、对外开放和资本-技能互补性等因素对工业就业结构技能升级的影响,揭示了技术进步与技能劳动力就业份额之间显著的正相关关系。这两方面的结果验证了20世纪90年代以来我国工业行业的技能偏向型技术变化,并为技能劳动力短缺提供了基于需求角度的解释。