Global warming and carbon dioxide through sciences

Increased atmospheric CO(2)-concentration is widely being considered as the main driving factor that causes the phenomenon of global warming. This paper attempts to shed more light on the role of atmospheric CO(2) in relation to temperature-increase and, more generally, in relation to Earth's life through the geological aeons, based on a review-assessment of existing related studies. It is pointed out that there has been a debate on the accuracy of temperature reconstructions as well as on the exact impact that CO(2) has on global warming. Moreover, using three independent sets of data (collected from ice-cores and chemistry) we perform a specific regression analysis which concludes that forecasts about the correlation between CO(2)-concentration and temperature rely heavily on the choice of data used, and one cannot be positive that indeed such a correlation exists (for chemistry data) or even, if existing (for ice-cores data), whether it leads to a "severe" or a "gentle" global warming. A very recent development on the greenhouse phenomenon is a validated adiabatic model, based on laws of physics, forecasting a maximum temperature-increase of 0.01-0.03 degrees C for a value doubling the present concentration of atmospheric CO(2). Through a further review of related studies and facts from disciplines like biology and geology, where CO(2)-change is viewed from a different perspective, it is suggested that CO(2)-change is not necessarily always a negative factor for the environment. In fact it is shown that CO(2)-increase has stimulated the growth of plants, while the CO(2)-change history has altered the physiology of plants. Moreover, data from palaeoclimatology show that the CO(2)-content in the atmosphere is at a minimum in this geological aeon. Finally it is stressed that the understanding of the functioning of Earth's complex climate system (especially for water, solar radiation and so forth) is still poor and, hence, scientific knowledge is not at a level to give definite and precise answers for the causes of global warming.     

Regional risk assessment for contaminated sites Part 3: Spatial decision support system

Large scale (e.g. regional or national) assessments of contaminated sites may be very costly in terms of investigation and methodological (i.e. risk assessment procedures) requirements and may produce a quantity of information that usually discourages examination by decision-makers. Moreover, most of the existing tools effectively support local environmental risk assessment and management, but lack the capabilities of larger scale analysis, not mentioning the absence of the relevant component of socio-economic prioritization. To respond to the concerns and the management needs of experts and decision makers, the Spatial decision support sYstem for Regional rIsk Assessment of Degraded land (SYRIADE DSS) was developed and is presented according to its three modules: Regional Risk Assessment, Socio-economic Assessment and Integrated Assessment, respectively. The system allows to rank potentially contaminated sites for priority of investigation, when no information on characterization and risk by site specific methodologies is available. This GIS-based system embeds an innovative spatial and relative risk assessment procedure, and proposes the integrated analysis of different data (environmental and socio-economic) for the concerned sites, eliciting when necessary experts' knowledge and stakeholders' values (through Multi Criteria Decision Analysis, MCDA, methodologies). The application to a Polish case-study shows the performance and the flexibility of the system in investigating and mapping (potentially) contaminated sites at the regional scale.     

Impacts of climate change on lakes and reservoirs dynamics and restoration policies

Meteorological-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes and their water quality; these impacts can be hydrologic, thermal, hydraulic, chemical, biochemical, or ecological. The impact of climate change on Lake Tahoe (California–Nevada) was investigated here as a case study of climate change effects on the physical processes occurring within lakes. The already published trends of meteorological variables were used to assess the effects of global warming on Lake Tahoe dynamics. Records from the period 1969–2002 show that Lake Tahoe has became warmer and more stable. A series of simulation years into the future (i.e., 2000–2040) was established using flows, loads, and meteorology data sets for the period 1994–2004. Results of 40-year simulations show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Possible changes in water quality because of global warming are discussed through inference, although these are not specifically simulated. Many existing problems may be exacerbated due to climate change, yet extreme uncertainty depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change. Therefore, shifts in water quality and quantity due to climate change should be integrated into contemporary planning and management in an adaptive manner, and the research and development of impact assessment methodology should focus on approaches that can handle extreme uncertainty. The general alternatives for lake management due to climate change are discussed. Depending on the specific case, further intensive research is suggested to restore lake water quality.     

滨海芦苇湿地土壤微生物数量对长期模拟增温的响应

采用开顶式生长室(Open-top chamber,OTC)连续8 a(2008~2015年)长期模拟温度升高,研究滨海芦苇湿地不同土壤深度,及两种代表植物芦苇(Phragmites australis)和白茅(Imperata cylindrical)根际、非根际土壤可培养微生物数量变化对长期增温的响应。结果表明:(1)相对于对照,长期增温导致土壤可培养微生物的数量显著增加。其中,增温对土壤表层细菌、真菌的数量影响显著,细菌在第一层的增幅最大,增加率为34.16%,真菌在第三层的增幅最大,增加了64.42%。增温对20~40 cm土层放线菌影响显著,其中在第二层达到最大增加率59.47%;(2)长期增温对芦苇根际土壤微生物的根际效应变化的影响不大,表现为各土层芦苇根际效应增温对照,而白茅根际真菌和放线菌分别在第二层和第三层有显著差异;(3)不同的植物类型,其根际可培养微生物数量及根际效应对长期增温的响应不一致,表现为芦苇和白茅根际土壤可培养微生物数量及根际效应的增加幅度不同,这可能与植物不同类型,根际分泌物种类、数量的差异有关。     

全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃对长江寸滩站以上流域径流的影响

基于多领域间影响模型比较计划推荐使用的4个全球气候模式GCM数据（GFDL、Had、IPSL和MIROC)，分别驱动SWIM、SWAT、HBV和VIC水文模型模拟长江寸滩站以上流域径流量，研究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下研究区径流量变化。研究表明：（1）在全球升温1.5℃时，水文模型和GCMs模拟的年径流量增幅分别在 5.5%~8.3%和3.5%~11.4%之间；在全球升温2.0℃时，水文模型模拟的径流量增幅在4.8%~6.7%，IPSL模拟的年径流量呈微弱减少趋势，HAD和MIROC模拟的年径流量分别增加6.7%和19%。来自GCMs的不确定性分别是来自水文模型的2.6和 2.1倍；（2）在两个不同升温条件下，月径流量集合平均的占比与基准期各月径流量的占比表现出高度一致性，但是升温1.5℃和2.0℃时的月最大径流量占比分别为47.8%和40.5%，表明在未来升温时段内，月径流量占比变化并不显著，但是极端月径流的变化较大；（3）全球升温1.5℃时，枯、丰水期日径流量增幅分别为3%和10%，但枯、丰水期径流贡献率变化幅度都不大。全球升温2.0℃时，枯、丰水期增幅分别为3.6%和8%，但枯、丰水期径流贡献率都呈下降趋势。全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃时，50年一遇（P=2%）的洪水流量，将分别比基准期增加26.3%和20.7%。基准期50年一遇的洪水将可能变成20年一遇，多年平均最大日径流量较基准期也有增加。     

Toward knowledge structuring of sustainability science based on ontology engineering

In sustainability science (SS), it is difficult to identify what needs to be solved, and it is also not clear how to solve the problems that are identified. There has been no consensus on the underlying question of “What is structuring knowledge in SS?” This paper focuses on knowledge structuring accompanied by supporting of thinking. It addresses the key challenges associated with knowledge structuring in SS, identifies the requirements for the structuring of knowledge, proposes a reference model, and develops an ontology-based mapping tool as a solution to one layer of the reference model. First, we identify the important requirements for SS knowledge structuring. Second, we develop a reference model composed of five layers based on three of the requirements. Third, we develop an ontology-based mapping tool at Layer 2 of the reference model for meeting the two major challenges for SS, namely, identifying what problems should be addressed in SS itself and proposing solutions for those problems. The tool is designed to store and retrieve information regarding SS, to provide access to a prototype ontology for SS, and to create multiple maps of conceptual chains depending on a user’s interests and perspectives. Finally, we assess whether the developed tool successfully realizes the targeted part of the reference model for SS by examining the tool’s conformity to the reference model, as well as its usability, effectiveness, and constraints. Although several issues were identified in the prototype ontology and the mapping tool, the study concluded that the mapping tool is useful enough to facilitate the function of Layer 2. In particular, the mapping tool can support thinking about SS from the viewpoint of: (a) finding new potentials and risks of technological countermeasures studied in SS; (b) helping users to get a more comprehensive picture of problems and their potential solutions; and (c) providing an effective opportunity to come up with new ideas that might not be thought of without such a tool.     

Risks of global warming on montane and subalpine forests in Switzerland – a modeling study

In this study, we assess the risks of global warming on distributions of individual tree species in Switzerland. Applying a spatially explicit model, tree occurrence is predicted as a function of high resolution and physiologically relevant biophysical variables. The study shows that warming only slightly alters the overall abundance of tree species. However, the preferred temperature regimes are unevenly distributed along an elevational gradient, and the sensitivity to temperature varies considerably between the species. As a result, major reorganizations of forests in montane and subalpine belts are expected, i.e., a segregation of the core distributions of Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies is observed. Tree distribution potentials near timberlines, however, remain roughly the same. Electronic Publication     

Impact of global warming on European tidal estuaries: some evidence of northward migration of estuarine fish species

The aim of this study was to determine whether the latitudinal distribution of fish species that use estuaries to complete their entire life cycle has shifted northward as an expected consequence of global warming. The mean latitude of past fish species distributions found in 1970s’ literature was compared with the mean latitude of distributions today based on fish density indices collected in 55 tidal estuaries along the Atlantic European seaboard, from Portugal to Scotland. Among the 15 most common species, 11 displayed a positive difference between current and past mean latitudes suggesting a northward shift of the populations. Using the occurrence of subtropical species in temperate areas as an indicator of water warming, the northernmost range limit of 10 subtropical species was subsequently focused on. Six of them were recorded up to their past northern latitudinal limit. These results reinforced the idea that a number of fish species associated to estuaries have migrated northwards over the last 30 years, possibly due to water warming. These ecological changes can get important managerial implications, i.e. in the assessment of the ecological status in European directives.     

Quoting “the Environment”: Touchstones on Earth

Media influence public awareness through agenda setting and framing of news by selecting what is published, how frequently and through what frames. This content analysis compares portrayals of climate change based on political ideology of the media. It examines daily coverage of climate change in Santiago, Chile by the conservative, El Mercurio, newspaper, and the liberal, La Nación. Twenty percent of the 1,628 articles published in 2003, 2005, and 2007 which included the words “cambio climático” (climate change) or “calentamiento global” (global warming) were analyzed for frequency, content, images, and frames. The liberal newspaper published twice as many articles that were twice as long, with four times as many illustrations about climate change. They presented more thematic and diverse frames than the conservative newspaper. Government sources and conflict frames dominated both newspapers, reflecting some similar maturation processes of climate change coverage found in Europe, the United States, and elsewhere.     

Potential influences of global warming on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria

This study investigates future impacts of global warming on climate and extreme climate events in Nigeria, the most populous African country that depends on rain-fed agriculture. Past and future climate simulations from 9 GCMs were downscaled (using a statistical model) and analyzed for the study. The study considers the impacts of two emission scenarios (B1 and A2) on the future climates (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) over ecological zones in Nigeria. The model evaluation shows that the downscaling adds values to the GCMs simulation, and the results capture all the important climatic features over the country. The model projections show that both B1 and A2 scenarios change the future climate over Nigeria. They significantly increase the temperature over all the ecological zones, with greatest warming (between 1 and 4 °C) over the Sudan (short grass) Savanna in March. The warming, which increases the occurrence of extreme temperature and heat wave events over the entire country, enhances the frequency of the extreme rainfall events in the south and southeast and reduces the annual rainfall over the northeast. Since heavy rains and floods are major problems in the south and southeast, and drought is major problem in the northeast, the global warming may further aggravate these environmental problems in future. These could have negative impacts on agriculture and further threaten livelihood and food security in the rapidly growing country. Hence, there is need for further studies on adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the impacts of global warming in Nigeria.     

Bringing the Heat Home: Television Spots about Local Impacts Reduce Global Warming Denialism

ABSTRACT

Efforts to educate the general public about global warming and the potential policy solutions that could mitigate its effects have relied on the diffusion of facts. But, cognitive scientists have documented that psychologically distant events like global warming elicit less concern and motivation to act relative to immediate, proximal and certain events. This paper documents a quasi-experiment that tested the effect on attitudes of a television campaign that emphasized the temporally, geographically and socially proximal impacts of global warming on the ecosystems and business activity of a historically conservative area of the United States. The campaign aired on one cable provider. Subscribers of that and of competing providers in the same zip-codes were polled after the campaign. Respondents exposed to the campaign were more likely to believe that global warming is happening, to accept the scientific consensus, to be more concerned about impacts and more supportive of policy solutions.     

Influence of global warming on coastal infrastructural instability

The increasing infrastructure instability is an important issue in relation to the influences of global climate change in urban areas. A serious issue pertaining to this is the dual nature of damage triggered by events combined with climate change and natural hazards. For example, catastrophic damage could result from the combination of global warming with a great earthquake, which is a worst-case scenario. Although this worst-case scenario has rarely occurred and presents a low probability of occurrence, countermeasures must be prepared in advance based on an appropriate response and adaptation strategies. After an overview of possible infrastructural instabilities caused by global warming, methodologies are proposed placing emphasis on the increasing probability of infrastructural instability triggered by natural hazards resulting from groundwater-level (GWL) variations. These effects are expected to be particularly serious in coastal regions because of the influence of the rising sea level resulting from global warming. The influence of sea-level rises (SLR) will become apparent along with land subsidence because groundwater abstraction will become severe in coastal regions. Additionally, the probability of earthquake liquefaction increases if GWL rises in accompaniment with SLR. Using case histories, we examined the possible occurrence of these natural hazards as a result of global warming. Finally, possible countermeasures and adaptation strategies for reducing and mitigating infrastructure damage accelerated by global warming are described for each case in specific regions. In particular, special attention should be paid to adaptation strategies in coastal lowlands, which particularly suffer from the effects of land subsidence.     

生态系统评价的回顾与展望--从北美生态区域评价到新千年全球生态系统评估

生态系统评价对于生态系统的可持续经营以及社会可持续发展具有重要意义。本文简要介绍了在生态区域评价的发展过程中具有重要意义的一系列事件，阐述了生态系统评价在北美和全球的发展过程、生态系统评价的有关概念、内容及其对于生态系统可持续经营的重要意义，同时还介绍了我国参与新千年生态系统评估的一些行动，并对中国的生态系统评价提出看法。     

Mapping interactions between the sustainable development goals: lessons learned and ways forward

Pursuing integrated research and decision-making to advance action on the sustainable development goals (SDGs) fundamentally depends on understanding interactions between the SDGs, both negative ones (“trade-offs”) and positive ones (“co-benefits”). This quest, triggered by the 2030 Agenda, has however pointed to a gap in current research and policy analysis regarding how to think systematically about interactions across the SDGs. This paper synthesizes experiences and insights from the application of a new conceptual framework for mapping and assessing SDG interactions using a defined typology and characterization approach. Drawing on results from a major international research study applied to the SDGs on health, energy and the ocean, it analyses how interactions depend on key factors such as geographical context, resource endowments, time horizon and governance. The paper discusses the future potential, barriers and opportunities for applying the approach in scientific research, in policy making and in bridging the two through a global SDG Interactions Knowledge Platform as a key mechanism for assembling, systematizing and aggregating knowledge on interactions.     

Finding the Teachable Moment: An Analysis of Information-Seeking Behavior on Global Warming Related Websites during the Release of The Day After Tomorrow

This paper investigates how the mass media may influence information-seeking behavior through an analysis of how the release of the movie The Day After Tomorrow, a fictional depiction of global warming causing catastrophic natural disasters, changed the information-seeking behavior of the public on global warming related websites. A “teachable moment” of elevated information-seeking activity was found to extend from 10 days before the release date of The Day After Tomorrow to 19 days after the movie release date. Using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average modeling, a significant positive correlation was found between changes in media coverage of The Day After Tomorrow and changes in information-seeking activity, although the correlation did not support hypothesized time lags. These results are discussed in terms of information-seeking models, and new research directions are proposed to link agenda-setting research with the information-seeking literature.     

三峡库区近百年来气温变化特征

利用1924～2011年重庆和宜昌站气温资料，分析了三峡库区近百年来气温变化特征。结果表明：从线性趋势、年代变化、突变和周期分析表明近88 a重庆和宜昌气温的变化特征是比较一致的，两段显著偏暖的时期分别是20世纪20年代中期至40年代和20世纪90年代中期至今。用重庆和宜昌站的平均来代表三峡库区，库区气温阶段变化与重庆、宜昌站基本一致，20世纪90年代中后期至今出现的显著增温现象迟于我国1986年前后开始的普遍增温。库区各季节气温变化存在差异，4个季节最近一次增暖主要集中在20世纪90年代中期或中后期。近88 a来三峡库区年平均气温发生两次突变， 1947年左右突变为降温趋势； 1996年左右突变为增暖趋势。三峡库区年平均气温2～4a周期变化最为显著，4 a左右的周期1980年代后期开始显著。1920年代到1980年代存在的16～20 a的年代际周期，但能量较年际周期弱。近88 a三峡库区与全球气温变化存在较大差异，最近一次显著增暖时间比较，三峡库区比全球滞后约10 a     

Certainty and uncertainty in understanding global warming

Global warming has greatly concerned the whole world. Owing to the limitation we currently have, it is still difficult to completely understand the mechanism and physical science of climate change. Now both certainty and uncertainty coexist in the understanding of climate warming. This paper aims to summarize certainties and uncertainties in climate-warming studies, which focus on seven key problems related to human activities, namely, global warming, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming, climate models, future climate change, 2°C warming threshold and tipping point in the Earth’s system. We should comprehensively take into account the level of certainty and uncertainty in our understanding of climate change while adapting to and mitigating global warming and adjusting our industrial structures accordingly. This would allow us to respond to change with certainty, while avoiding the risks associated with uncertainty.     

Developing Communication Strategies for Mitigating Actions Against Global Warming: Linking Framing and a Dual Processing Model

Although there is increasing public awareness of global warming, there is a gap between such perception and relevant actions to combat the problem. In order to develop effective strategies for facilitating public actions, in this paper we draw upon framing theory and a dual processing model. Based on an experiment involving 261 participants from a large public university in Taiwan, this study found that by framing global warming as a local issue, communication messages can trigger both analytic (issue relevance) and affective (negative emotions) appraisals, which, in turn, will increase people's intentions to take actions. This study provides important insights for government and environmental groups when designing communication campaigns on this issue.     

Latitudinal pattern in species diversity and its response to global warming in permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing’an Mountains, China

Permafrost wetlands are one of the most sensitive plant communities in response to global warming. Global warming could induce natural plant communities to shift into cooler climate zones, or extirpate. To understand how plant communities in permafrost wetlands are affected by global warming, we examined the patterns of plant species diversity in the 24 permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing’an Mountains along a latitudinal gradient. This gradient was characterized by a northward decline in mean annual temperature (Δ = 3.5°C) and mean annual precipitation (Δ = 38.7 mm). Our results indicated that latitudinal patterns in species diversity existed in the permafrost wetlands. The numbers of family, genus and species, the Gleason index and Shannon-Wiener index for shrubs decreased linearly with decreasing latitude, but increased for herbaceous plants. The latitudinal patterns in species diversity had influenced strongly by temperature. Simple linear regression yielded about 2 decreases in shrub number and 9 increases in herbaceous species number with an increase of mean annual temperature by 1°C, with 0.33 decreases in shrub diversity and 0.29 increases in herbaceous species diversity. If temperature warms 3.7°C by 2100, herbaceous plants might increase in the permafrost wetlands, with species number increasing 48% or 6 times and species diversity increasing 40% or 2 times; and some shrub species might decrease and even disappear in part of the areas with lower latitude, with species number decreasing 50–100% and species diversity decreasing 69–100%. The permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing’an Mountains might continue degenerating and shift northward with global warming over the next century.     

Framing natural assets for advancing sustainability research: translating different perspectives into actions

Sustainability is a key challenge for humanity in the context of complex and unprecedented global changes. Future Earth, an international research initiative aiming to advance global sustainability science, has recently launched knowledge–action networks (KANs) as mechanisms for delivering its research strategy. The research initiative is currently developing a KAN on “natural assets” to facilitate and enable action-oriented research and synthesis towards natural assets sustainability. ‘Natural assets’ has been adopted by Future Earth as an umbrella term aiming to translate and bridge across different knowledge systems and different perspectives on peoples’ relationships with nature. In this paper, we clarify the framing of Future Earth around natural assets emphasizing the recognition on pluralism and identifying the challenges of translating different visions about the role of natural assets, including via policy formulation, for local to global sustainability challenges. This understanding will be useful to develop inter-and transdisciplinary solutions for human–environmental problems by (i) embracing richer collaborative decision processes and building bridges across different perspectives; (ii) giving emphasis on the interactions between biophysical and socioeconomic drivers affecting the future trends of investments and disinvestments in natural assets; and (iii) focusing on social equity, power relationships for effective application of the natural assets approach. This understanding also intends to inform the scope of the natural asset KAN’s research agenda to mobilize the translation of research into co-designed action for sustainability.