A box model for calculation of collective dose commitment from radioactive waterborne releases to the baltic sea

To meet the new regulations of maximum yearly releases from Swedish nuclear power plants issued by the Swedish National Radiation Protection Institute, and to make realistic calculations of collective dose commitment derived from radionuclides discharged to the Baltic Sea, a box model AQUAPATH-BALTIC has been developed. The model calculates radionuclide concentrations in 25 boxes for discharges into given compartments and takes into consideration the dispersion rates of the water masses, the sediment-water interaction and radioactive decay. The calculated concentrations in water and sediment at steady state are then used to evaluate individual and collective intakes of activity and external exposures. The radiation doses to the global population following discharges to the Baltic Sea are also calculated.     

Modelling radioactivity in the Irish Sea: From discharge to dose

In order to support authorised discharges of low level radioactive liquid effluent into coastal regions, mathematical models are required to robustly predict radiological impacts on critical groups of current and proposed changes to liquid discharges. The grid model presented here simulates the long term dispersion and transport of radioactivity discharged from the Sellafield site in Cumbria, UK, and the subsequent exposure of critical groups in Cumbria and across the Irish Sea in Northern Ireland. The fine grid of the model allows a good resolution of the seabed sediment distribution. This benefits the predictions for the last decades of low discharge level, when bed sediment can become a source of contamination by bringing back the legacy of past high discharges. This is highlighted by the dose comparison, where the predicted dose to Cumbria critical group follows well the dose estimated from environmental data during the low discharge level period.     

Can ECOPATH with ECOSIM enhance models of radionuclide flows in food webs? An example for 14C in a coastal food web in the Baltic Sea

In this study it was evaluated whether the ECOPATH with ECOSIM software could be used as a platform to facilitate the construction of models and study of transport and accumulation of radionuclides in aquatic food webs. The evaluation was based upon a food web model of carbon (C) and carbon-14 ((14)C) flow for a coastal area in the Baltic Sea, the ECOPATH, the ECOSIM and the ECOTRACE models. The original carbon flows and assumptions were easily incorporated into the ECOPATH and ECOSIM modelling environment. The new model was also well suited to drive a (14)C flow model (ECOTRACE) for each of the organisms included. ECOTRACE estimated steady-state concentrations of (14)C that were between 73 and 142% of the original flows. The results clearly show that there is great potential for a successful development of this approach for integrating scientific knowledge about food webs and radioecological models for aquatic systems.     

The concentration of Cs in the surface of the Greek marine environment

The radiological status of the Greek marine environment, prior to the Chernobyl accident, was characterized mainly by the fallout from nuclear weapon tests. However, the release of radioactivity into the environment from the accident in the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant and its deposition in the Greek marine environment resulted in an increase of the ¹³⁷Cs activity concentration by approximately one order of magnitude. In addition, the direct transport of radiocaesium into the North Aegean Sea has been further influenced by the late impact of the Chernobyl accident on the Greek marine environment, related to the transfer of ¹³⁷Cs, mainly through the Dnieper but also the Danube rivers, to the Black Sea and further to the North Aegean Sea through the Straits of Dardanelles. The aim of this work is to provide a present day picture of the geographic variation of the concentration of ¹³⁷Cs in the surface layer of the Greek marine environment and hence, to evaluate the annual committed effective dose delivered to humans through the ingestion pathway from marine sources.     

Long-term study of 99Tc in the marine environment on the Swedish west coast

The activity concentration of (99)Tc in brown seaweed (Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus serratus) and seawater were analysed in samples collected in 1991, 1995 and 2001 at several stations along the Swedish west coast. In addition to these locations, a well-defined site (S?rdal, 56.76 degrees N, 12.63 degrees E) was included with (99)Tc activity concentration data in seaweed from 1967 to 2000. Over the years, the major source of (99)Tc in the coastal waters of western Sweden has been the radioactive liquid discharge from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Sellafield (UK) transported via ocean currents in the North Sea. The (99)Tc activity concentration in seaweed at the S?rdal site increased from approximately 30 Bq kg(-1) up to 230 Bq kg(-1) (dry weight) between 1997 and 2000 due to the Sellafield EARP (Enhanced Actinide Removal Plant) discharges in 1995-1996, yielding an approximate transport time of 4-5 years between the Irish Sea and the Kattegat. Due to the very sharp gradient in (99)Tc concentration between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, (99)Tc is presently one of the best transit tracers for the recent ventilation events in the Baltic Sea.     

The Bulgarian Emergency Response System for dose assessment in the early stage of accidental releases to the atmosphere

The Bulgarian Emergency Response System (BERS) is being developed in the Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology since 1994. BERS is based on numerical weather forecast meteorological information and a numerical long-range dispersion model accounting for the transport, dispersion, chemical and radioactive transformations of pollutants. In the present paper, the further development of this system for a mixture of radioactive gaseous and aerosol pollutants is described. The basic module for the BERS, the numerical dispersion model EMAP, is upgraded with a “dose calculation block”. Two scenarios for hypothetical accidental atmospheric releases from two NPPs, one in Western, and the other in Eastern Europe, are numerically simulated. The effective doses from external irradiation, from air submersion and ground shinning, effective dose from inhalation and absorbed dose by thyroid gland formed by 37 different radionuclides, significant for the early stage of a nuclear accident, are calculated as dose fields for both case studies and discussed.     

Results of the European Commission Marina II study: part II--effects of discharges of naturally occurring radioactive material

Enhanced levels of naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) are produced through various industrial operations and may lead to discharges to the marine environment. A recent study, called MARINA II, carried out for the European Commission considered discharges of radionuclides from the NORM industries to north European marine waters and their consequences. There are two main sources that were considered in the study. The use of phosphogypsum during the production of phosphoric acid by the fertiliser industry and the pumping of oil and gas from the continental shelf in the North Sea which produces large quantities of water contaminated with enhanced levels of naturally occurring radionuclides. Discharges of alpha emitting radionuclides from these two industries have contributed significantly to the total input of alpha emitters to north European waters over the period 1981-2000 (data were not available prior to 1981). Discharges due to the use of phosphogypsum have declined since the early 1990s and are now very low. Discharges from the oil and gas industries stabilised in the second half of the 1990s and are now the major contributor to alpha discharges to the region. As most European countries do not report discharges of radioactivity with the water produced during extraction, there is considerable uncertainty in the discharges used in the study. The impact of the discharges has been estimated both in terms of the effect on non-human biota and the radiological impact for people. In the 1980s the radiation dose rates to marine biota in the region around a phosphate plant on the north-west coast of England were as high due to the discharges from the phosphate plant as those near to the Sellafield reprocessing plant due to its discharges. In recent years the additional dose to marine biota in this region due to the past NORM discharges is of the same order of magnitude as the natural background. The collective dose rate was estimated to determine the radiological impact on people. The peak collective dose rate from the NORM industries occurred in 1984 and was just over 600 manSv y(-1). The collective dose rate fell with time as discharges from the phosphate industry reduced and was estimated as under 200 manSv y(-1) in 2000.     

Radioecological consequences of a potential accident during transport of spent nuclear fuel along an Arctic coastline

This article presents results pertaining to a risk assessment of the potential consequences of a hypothetical accident occurring during the transportation by ship of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) along an Arctic coastline. The findings are based on modelling of potential releases of radionuclides, radionuclide transport and uptake in the marine environment. Modelling work has been done using a revised box model developed at the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority. Evaluation of the radioecological consequences of a potential accident in the southern part of the Norwegian Current has been made on the basis of calculated collective dose to man, individual doses for the critical group, concentrations of radionuclides in seafood and doses to marine organisms. The results of the calculations indicate a large variability in the investigated parameters above mentioned. On the basis of the calculated parameters the maximum total activity (“accepted accident activity”) in the ship, when the parameters that describe the consequences after the examined potential accident are still in agreement with the recommendations and criterions for protection of the human population and the environment, has been evaluated.     

Simulating mesoscale transport and diffusion of radioactive noble gases using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model

In order to simulate the impact of mesoscale wind fields and to assess potential capability of atmospheric Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) as an emergency response model for the decision supports, two different simulations of LPDM with the mesoscale prognostic model MM5 (Mesoscale Model ver. 5) were driven. The first simulation of radioactive noble gas ((85)Kr exponent) emitted during JCO accident occurred from 30 September to 3 October 1999 at Tokai, Japan showed that the first arriving short pulse was found in Tsukuba located at 60km away from the accidental area. However, the released radioactive noble gas was transported back to the origin site about 2 days later due to the mesoscale meteorological wind circulation, enhancing the levels of (85)Kr with the secondary peak in Tsukuba. The second simulation of atmospheric dilution factors (the ratio of concentration to the emission rate, chi/Q), during the underground nuclear test (UNT) performed by North Korea showed that high chi/Q moved to the eastward and extended toward southward in accordance with the mesoscale atmospheric circulations generated by mesoscale prognostic model MM5. In comparison with the measurements, the simulated horizontal distribution patterns of (85)Kr during the JCO are well accord with that of observation in Tsukuba such as the existence of secondary peak which is associated with the mesoscale circulations. However, the simulated level of (85)Kr anomaly was found to be significantly lower than the observations, and some interpretations on these discrepancies were described. Applications of LPDM to two mesoscale emergency response dispersion cases suggest the potential capability of LPDM to be used as a decision support model provided accurate emission rate of accident in case of a large accident.     

Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness

The main objectives of the current EU project “Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure” (FUMAPEX) are the improvement of meteorological forecasts for urban areas, the connection of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to urban air pollution and population dose models, the building of improved urban air quality information and forecasting systems, and their application in cities in various European climates. In addition to the forecast of the worst air-pollution episodes in large cities, the potential use of improved weather forecasts for nuclear emergency management in urban areas, in case of hazardous releases from nuclear accidents or terror acts, is considered. Such use of NWP data is tested for the Copenhagen metropolitan area and the Øresund region.The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) is running an experimental version of the HIRLAM NWP model over Zealand including the Copenhagen metropolitan area with a horizontal resolution of 1.4 km, thus approaching the city-scale. This involves 1-km resolution physiographic data with implications for the urban surface parameters, e.g. surface fluxes, roughness length and albedo. For the city of Copenhagen, the enhanced high-resolution NWP forecasting will be provided to demonstrate the improved dispersion forecasting capabilities of the Danish nuclear emergency preparedness decision–support system, the Accident Reporting and Guidance Operational System (ARGOS), used by the Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA).Recently, ARGOS has been extended with a capability of real-time calculation of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion of radioactive material from accidental releases. This is effectuated through on-line interfacing with the Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA), which is run at DMI. For local-scale modelling of atmospheric dispersion, ARGOS utilises the Local-Scale Model Chain (LSMC), which makes use of high-resolution DMI-HIRLAM NWP model data provided to DEMA by DMI four times a day under operational surveillance and covering Denmark and surroundings. The integration of DERMA in ARGOS is effectuated through automated on-line digital communication and exchange of data. The calculations are carried out in parallel for each NWP model to which DMI has access, thereby providing a mini-ensemble of dispersion forecasts for the emergency management.     

Revision of deposition and weathering parameters for the ingestion dose module (ECOSYS) of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems

The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.     

MEAD (part II)-Predictions of radioactivity concentrations in the Irish Sea

The predictions from MEAD, a model that simulates the transport of radionuclides in the marine environment, are presented for the Irish Sea. MEAD predictions for (137)Cs and Pu(alpha) are presented following discharges from BNFL Sellafield and the predictions compared to measured data from near the discharge location and further a field in the Irish Sea. The model performs well in most circumstances given the uncertainties involved in both modelling and data collection although some inconsistencies in the predictions are found. MEAD is also compared to other models of radionuclide transport in the Irish Sea.     

The FARMING approach: main results and perspectives of the French FARMING groups

The Chernobyl accident led to a long-term crisis that affected agriculture, food and living conditions in complex ways, and that modified the usual economical, political and social relations between public and private stakeholders at local, national and international level. The EC FARMING project aims to create a European stakeholder network to consider possible rehabilitation strategies for rural areas contaminated after a nuclear accident. The Institute of Patrimonial Strategies of the National Institute on Agronomy had responsibility for setting up the French stakeholder group. The objective was to develop favourable conditions and ways whereby stakeholders could deal with such a complex situation as a nuclear emergency and develop rehabilitation strategies. The results from the 3-year work programme on both strategic and technical aspects, showed an increasing commitment from the stakeholders that led to the building up of a common understanding of what a nuclear accident could be and how it could be dealt with.     

Bioaccumulation of 137Cs in pelagic food webs in the Norwegian and Barents Seas

Knowledge and documentation of the levels of radioactive contamination in fish stocks important to Norwegian fisheries is of major importance to Norwegian consumers and fish export industry. In the present study, the bioaccumulation of caesium-137 ((137)Cs) has been investigated in marine food webs in the Barents and Norwegian Seas. The contents of (137)Cs in the different organisms were generally low (<1 Bq kg(-1) wet weight), but a marked bioaccumulation was apparent: The concentration of (137)Cs was about 10-fold higher in the harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena, representing the upper level of the food web, than in the amphipod Themisto sp., representing the lower level of the food web. The Concentration Factors (CF=Bq kg(-1) wet weight/Bq l(-1) seawater) increased from 10+/-3 for a mixed sample of krill and amphipods to 165+/-5 for harbour porpoises.     

Distribution and sources of (129)I in rivers of the Baltic region

The concentration of (129)I was measured in 54 river waters discharging into the Baltic Sea from Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Germany. Sample collection was performed during a well-bracketed time interval (June-July 1999), thus allowing comparison of the rivers over a wide latitude range without the effect of long temporal spread. Although there is no direct input of anthropogenic (129)I in the watersheds, the concentration of the isotope is about two to three orders of magnitude higher than the expected pre-nuclear era natural values in the rivers of Finland and northern Sweden, and in the rivers of southern Sweden, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Germany; the (129)I concentration may reach five orders of magnitude higher. Furthermore, there are significant correlations between the (129)I concentration and latitude and/or distance from the North Sea and between (129)I and Cl. These findings suggest seawater as a main source of (129)I to the rivers through atmospheric transport. Of the many chemical parameters investigated, the pH may account for some of the variability in (129)I concentrations of the rivers. The contribution from nuclear weapon tests and the Chernobyl accident to the riverine (129)I is insignificant compared to the releases from the nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities. The total flux of (129)I by rivers to the Baltic Sea and related basins represents minor amounts of the isotope pool in these marine waters. External radioactivity hazards from (129)I are considered to be negligible in the Baltic region. However, as the main (129)I intake to the human body is likely through water, due to the large amount of daily water consumption, more concern should be given to internal radioactivity hazard that may be associated with the isotope's localized elevated concentration in the human organs.     

Reconstruction of radioactive plume characteristics along Chernobyl's Western Trace

Using data obtained from 435 radiation sampling stations in the Red Forest, 1.5 km W if the Chernobyl Nuclear Complex, we reconstructed the deposition pathway of the first plume released by the accident, Chernobyl's Western Trace. The dimensions and deposition rates of the plume remain sharply defined 15 years after the accident. Assuming a uniform particle distribution within the original cloud, we derived estimates of plume dimensions by applying geometric transformations to the coordinates at each sample point. Our derived estimates for the radioactive cloud accounted for 87% of the variation of radioactivity in this region. Results show a highly integrated bell-shaped cross-section of the cloud of radiation, approximately 660 m wide and 290 m high, traveling at a bearing of 264 degrees from reactor IV. Particle sizes within Chernobyl's Western Trace were within the most dangerous range for inhaled aerosols (2-5 microm). Therefore, reconstruction of the dispersion of such particles is critical for understanding the aftermath of nuclear and biological aerosol releases.     

Radionuclide contamination of sediment deposits in the Ob and Yenisey estuaries and areas of the Kara Sea

The Ob and Yenisey rivers are major contributors to total riverine discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Several large nuclear facilities discharge into these rivers, which could affect actual and potential discharges of radionuclides to the Arctic region. This article presents new radionuclide concentration and grain-size data resulting from analyses of several sediment samples collected during research cruises in the Ob and Yenisey estuaries and adjacent areas during 2000 and 2001. Results indicate that discharges from the main nuclear facilities do not constitute a major contribution to the level of radioactive contamination in the marine areas studied, though Co-60 was detected at low concentrations in some sediment horizons. However, the aggregate contamination from different sources is not radioecologically significant in sediments within the study area, maximum Cs-137 levels being approximately 80 Bq kg(-1) dry weight.     

Mesoscale modelling of radioactive contamination formation in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident

This work is devoted to the reconstruction of time-dependent radioactive contamination fields in the territory of Ukraine in the initial period of the Chernobyl accident using the model of atmospheric transport LEDI (Lagrangian-Eulerian DIffusion model). The modelling results were compared with available 137Cs air and ground contamination measurement data. The 137Cs atmospheric transport over the territory of Ukraine was simulated during the first 12 days after the accident (from 26 April to 7 May 1986) using real aerological information and rain measurement network data. The detailed scenario of the release from the accidental unit of the Chernobyl nuclear plant has been built (including time-dependent radioactivity release intensity and time-varied height of the release). The calculations have enabled to explain the main features of spatial and temporal variations of radioactive contamination fields over the territory of Ukraine on the regional scale, including the formation of the major large-scale spots of radioactive contamination caused by dry and wet deposition.