SELECTING A MULTICRITERION DECISION MAKING TECHNIQUE FOR WATERSHED RESOURCES MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: A method for selecting a most appropriate multicritenon decision making (MCDM) technique for watershed resources management is modeled as a multicriterion problem. The procedure consists of identifying a set of feasible MCDM techniques, and evaluating them with respect to four sets of choice criteria, namely (1) problem related, (2) decision-maker (DM)/analyst related, (3) technique-related, and (4) solution-related criteria. Altogether 15 techniques are evaluated in terms of 24 criteria, forming an evaluation matrix of criteria versus alternative MCDM techniques. The evaluation matrix is then analyzed by means by a composite programming algorithm resulting in a preference ranking of the alternatives. Application of the techniques to a watershed resources management problem illustrates the method throughout the paper. (KEY TERMS: alternative selection; watershed resources management; multicriterion decision making; composite programming.)     

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES USING THE WOLLMAN-BONEM MODELS1

Alternative futures are defined to be mutually consistent alternative combinations of assumed sets of future conditions. Alternative futures are employed in conjunction with the Wollman-Bonem model to project future water use. The model solutions under different alternative futures provide an indication of the direction and relative magnitude of changes in water use, both in quantity and quality, that may result from changes in policy-influenced variables, technology, and other data. The Wollman-Bonem model is employed in this paper as a tool to illustrate the alternative futures concept. The model can best be cast as an economic model. The model solutions are not given as a set of formal projections, but as various possible water-use-over-time curves. This should aid in disspelling the erroneous idea that it is possible to make distant projections of water use as a single curve. Multiple curves suggest that water use is really a function of many variables.     

Multicriteria Decision Aid in Supporting Decisions Related to Groundwater Protection

In the recent decades, there have been frequent conflicts between groundwater resources and environmentally hazardous activities. An example is the construction of the new highway through the important glaciofluvial esker aquifer Nybroåsen, which passes the protection zone of the water supply for the Kalmar municipality, in the southeastern part of Sweden. The decision to build the new road through this important aquifer has been strongly questioned by the municipality and the public because the value of the water resources in Nybroåsen was not taken into consideration during the first phase of the decision-making process. Multicriteria decision aid (MCDA) is applied as a tool to structure and analyze the four road alternatives proposed in the environmental impact assessment for the above conflict. The alternatives, including the existing road, are in conflict with water resources, agriculture, natural, and cultural values. The impacts on the water resources have been predicted by a two-dimensional physically based time-variant flow and solute groundwater model, which has been calibrated and evaluated. The MCDA illustrates how it can be used to identify (1) actors and their concerns, (2) ranking of alternative road scenarios according to actors preferences, and (3) coalition groups of actors, i.e., groups that have similar views with regard to the road alternatives. The analysis shows that the two best compromise solutions obtained in the MCDA were unacceptable by the strongest coalition group, showing that either the family of criteria was not well chosen or new alternatives should have been developed.     

EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVES TO THE GARRISON DIVERSION UNIT1

ABSTRACT: The Garrison Diversion Unit is a multipurpose water resources project which is currently under development for the purpose of diverting water from the Missouri River basin to irrigate farmland in North Dakota. Due to the objections raised by various interest groups, the project has recently been reviewed by the International Joint Commission. This article surveys the background to the project and the various alternatives that have been proposed. By utilizing recently developed fuzzy set techniques, the proposed alternatives are evaluated and a plausible solution is proposed. The results of the study indicate that it may be advisable to remove the Souris Loop irrigation area from the Garrison project but the environmental impacts of the study may preclude the implementation of any alternative that can affect Canada. These findings are in partial agreement with the recommendations of the International Joint Commission.     

MULTICRITERION ANALYSIS OF FOREST WATERSHED MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The impacts of alternative forest watershed management practices are examined from a multicriterion viewpoint in order to select the most satisfactory management scheme. The selection process is carried out using two types of multicriterion decision making techniques: the outranking types of ELECTRE I and II, and the distance-based type of compromise programming (CP). The process is illustrated using the U.S. Forest Service Beaver Creek Experimental Watershed in the Salt-Verde River Basin of Arizona as an example. The desired objectives of the experimental study and the alternative forest watershed resources management schemes are transformed into an evaluation matrix of alternatives versus criteria array. Analyses of the matrix using the aforementioned techniques result in a complete preference ordering of the feasible alternatives in the cases of ELECTRE LI and CP and a partial ordering when ELECTRE I is used. In addition, some sensitivity analyses have been performed and showed ELECTRE II and CP to be fairly robust with respect to parameter changes, while ELECTRE I being highly sensitive to changes in threshold levels. Overall the three techniques pointed out that 65 percent vegetation cut is the best management scheme, while the next best is shown to be 50 percent vegetation cut.     

PLANNERS AS A PUBLIC IN WATER RESOURCES PUBLIC PARTICIPATION PROGRAMS1

This paper suggests a number of benefits in identifying urban and regional planners as a public in public participation programs of water resources planning studies. A perspective on public participation is presented. Recent trends and developing concepts are identified: emphasis on the need to coordinate urban and regional planning activities with water resources planning, increasing system complexity, the goals and objectives orientation of planning, planning for multi-objectives, the evaluation of a broader range of alternatives, and the consideration of water alternatives as only one set of measures to further society's aspirations. One way to assist in capitalizing on these trends is to seek out participation of those in other planning efforts who are involved in planning but on a different level. Because of their intimate knowledge of an areas history, growth and development, political climate, local perceptions of needs and desires, and major problems and issues they are able to contribute a great deal of insight in making the water resources planning effort more responsive at the local level. The paper describes one of the first major efforts at working-level public-planner contact which was carried out as part of the Susquehanna River Basin Study. A regional survey team comprised of an engineer and an economist from a federal agency and a state water resources planner met informally with planners, city managers, and local planning commissions to discuss issues related to water resources and the growth and development of local areas. This effort while only part of the overall public participation program yielded a number of benefits and if expanded and refined would be a very useful experience in other studies.     

ALTERNATIVES FOR GROUND WATER LAW CHANGE IN ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: Western state water resources are drawing increasing attention because of prolonged drought, pound-water overdraft and an ever-increasing awareness of insufficient Colorado River water to supply a growing population and meet industrial demand. Arizona is no exception, and the alarming decline in ground-water levels has prompted the Arizona State Legislature to adopt legislation establishing the Ground-Water Management Study Commission to recommend legislative action by 1979. This paper summarizes Arizona's ground water legislative history and discusses possible alternatives for change. The authors address specific issues facing the State and offer a set of possible Commission recommendations.     

A PROCESS FOR FEDERAL WATER PLANNING AT THE FIELD LEVEL1

ABSTRACT: A process for planning at the field offices of Federal water resources agencies is described. The process involve s both planners and publics in the following four planning activities: problem definition, formulation of alternatives, impact analysis and evaluation (or plan ranking). Evaluative factors are defied as the goals, concerns, constraints, etc. that affected publics and other decision makers consider in ranking alternative actions. These factors serve to drive the entire process and glue the four planning activities together. In contrast to other “models” of the planning process, the four activities are considered to be carried out simultaneously and continually from the beginning of the process. As the planning process proceeds, each activity is repeated a number of times at increasing levels of detail. Various aspects of the process are illustrated by means of an example involving water resources development in Carmel Valley, California.     

干旱生态敏感区水电站环境影响后评价指标体系研究

针对干旱生态敏感区水电站环境影响后评价的要求,设计备选指标集,采用频次分析法进行指标初选,采用专家咨询法进行指标精选,建立由4项二级指标、14项三级指标构成的干旱生态敏感区水电站环境影响后评价指标体系,采用层次分析法给每个指标赋予权重。将该评价指标体系用于某水电站建设的实例分析,结果表明,水电站运行以来总体上有利影响大于不利影响,并且在可接受范围内,其不利影响可以采取人工辅助措施加以避免或减缓。评价结果符合实际,该指标体系具有针对性和一定的实用性。     

SUBJECTIVE DECISION-MAKING FOR URBAN WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT: Bayesian decision theory provides a procedure for the use of subjective data in a decision-making situation related to urban water resources development. This procedure is effectual in pursuing a set of goals and in transforming individual or group indecisiveness into satisfactory decisions. This approach is highlighted due to its capability to incorporate seemingly unquantifiable, abstract factors into the decision-making process. It is realized that the soliciting of expert and general public opinion is indispensable in making choices for the welfare of the general public from alternative courses of action under uncertainty. The analysis presented here considers engineering alternatives, quality, quantity, cost and the intangible public response in an integrated effort for the selection of optimum strategies in urban water resources development.     

SURFACE WATER-ESKER RECHARGE STUDY EAST LANSING-MERIDIAN TOWNSHIP,MICHIGAN1

ABSTRACT: The East Lansing-Meridian Water and Sewer Authority studied a sand-gravel esker near the existing water treatment plant to determine its potential as an independent surface water supply. The nearby Red Cedar River was also investigated as a possible source of water for immediate treatment or for recharge of the esker. Although the bedrock aquifer (Grand River and Saginaw Formations) yields water adequate for the next 20 years, potential savings in treatment (hardness, iron) and pumping costs, estimated at $30,000 per year for present demand of 5 MGD, are attractive incentives for a surface water-esker recharge program. Operation savings would also be realized by constructing additional bedrock wells in new areas. The river-esker-recharge and new wellfield alternatives are compared for cost-effectiveness. Land costs make the recharge alternative more expensive. The land is undeveloped suburban property with potential for recreational use in conjunction with water supply. More places of outdoor retreat and aesthetics are needed in the Lansig Metropolitan area. A portion of the land costs would have to be borne by these or other interests for the river recharge scheme to be economically feasible.     

THE DYNAMICS OF WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN AN URBAN ENVIRONMENT1

The traditional approach to water resources management for urban areas has been based on the examination of needs and the design of separate facilities for water supply, drainage, and waste water collection and treatment. The complexity and interaction among the separate systems required by a metropolitan area has complicated their management and promoted research interest in developing a methodology for better coordination. However, a more thorough evaluation of the problem reveals the real research need to be both more complicated and different in character than the problem in systems analysis suggested by the first superficial glance. Water management relates to the much broader problem of community design; when, where, and in what manner should new urban development take place. Furthermore, the character and needs of areas within the metropolis are constantly changing. The key distinctiveness of urban water management is the imperative for design and operation flexibility. The key research need is to develop new designs, operation procedures, and institutional arrangements to make the flexibility demanded by a dynamic urban community possible.     

Inexact multistage stochastic integer programming for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic integer programming (IMSIP) method is developed for water resources management under uncertainty. This method incorporates techniques of inexact optimization and multistage stochastic programming within an integer programming framework. It can deal with uncertainties expressed as both probabilities and discrete intervals, and reflect the dynamics in terms of decisions for water allocation through transactions at discrete points of a complete scenario set over a multistage context. Moreover, the IMSIP can facilitate analyses of the multiple policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties when the promised targets are violated as well as the economies-of-scale in the costs for surplus water diversion. A case study is provided for demonstrating the applicability of the developed methodology. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated for both binary and continuous variables. For all scenarios under consideration, corrective actions can be undertaken dynamically under various pre-regulated policies and can thus help minimize the penalties and costs. The IMSIP can help water resources managers to identify desired system designs against water shortage and for flood control with maximized economic benefit and minimized system-failure risk.     

OPTIMAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THE EXPANSION OF AN EXISTING WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS1

The study of the optimal expansion of existing water resources systems is of continuing importance because of the rising demand and limited supply of water in many areas of the world, particularly in the southwestern part of the United States of America. This study is concerned with the investigation of the optimal expansion of a realistic water resources system to meet an increasing demand for municipal and industrial use, irrigation, energy, and recreation over a planning horizon of T years. A number of possible dam sites are available for the further regulation of river (canal) flows in the basin and/or the regulation of imported waters into the basin. To maximize, over the set of alternative projects, the sum of discounted present value of net earnings subject to the demands and various institutional, physical and budgetary limits, an optimization problem (Problem I) was formed as a 0-1 mixed integer programming problem and was decomposed into the set of all feasible combinations (Problem II). The economic return was determined for each combination (Problem III). Problem II was solved by a branch and bound procedure which selected each feasible combination of dams while the optimal return for each such combination (Problem III) was found by a network analysis code.     

Increasing urban water self-sufficiency: new era, new challenges

Urban water supplies are traditionally based on limited freshwater resources located outside the cities. However, a range of concepts and techniques to exploit alternative water resources has gained ground as water demands begin to exceed the freshwater available to cities. Based on 113 cases and 15 in-depth case studies, solutions used to increase water self-sufficiency in urban areas are analyzed. The main drivers for increased self-sufficiency were identified to be direct and indirect lack of water, constrained infrastructure, high quality water demands and commercial and institutional pressures. Case studies demonstrate increases in self-sufficiency ratios to as much as 80% with contributions from recycled water, seawater desalination and rainwater collection. The introduction of alternative water resources raises several challenges: energy requirements vary by more than a factor of ten amongst the alternative techniques, wastewater reclamation can lead to the appearance of trace contaminants in drinking water, and changes to the drinking water system can meet tough resistance from the public. Public water-supply managers aim to achieve a high level of reliability and stability. We conclude that despite the challenges, self-sufficiency concepts in combination with conventional water resources are already helping to reach this goal.     

A dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, a dual-interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (DFSP) method is developed for planning water resources management systems under uncertainty. DFSP incorporates interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fuzzy vertex analysis (FVA) within a fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) framework to address uncertain parameters described as probability distributions and dual intervals. It can also be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences since penalties are exercised with recourse actions against any infeasibility. A real case for water resources management planning of Zhangweinan River Basin in China is then conducted for demonstrating the applicability of the developed DFSP method. Solutions in association with α-cut levels are generated by solving a set of deterministic submodels, which are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under compound uncertainties. The results can help to identify desired water-allocation schemes for local sustainable development that the prerequisite water demand can be guaranteed when the available water resource is scarce.     

Sustainable Water Resources Management in a Conflict Resolution Framework1

Abstract: A decision support system for sustainable water resources management in a water conflict resolution framework is developed to identify and evaluate a range of acceptable alternatives for the Geum River Basin in Korea and to facilitate strategies that will result in sustainable water resource management. Working with stakeholders in a “shared vision modeling” framework, sustainable management strategies are created to illustrate system tradeoffs as well as long‐term system planning. A multi‐criterion decision‐making (MCDM) approach using subjective scales is utilized to evaluate the complex water resource allocation and management tradeoffs between stakeholders and system objectives. The procedures used in this study include the development of a “shared vision model,” a simulated decision‐making support system (as a tool for sustainable water management strategies associated with water conflicts, management options, and planning criteria), and the application of MCDM techniques for evaluating alternatives provided by the model. The research results demonstrate the utility of the sustainable water resource management model in aid of MCDM techniques in facilitating flexibility during initial stages of alternative identification and evaluation in a basin suffering from severe water conflicts.     

INTERACTIVE MULTIOBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EMBEDDING THE DECISION MAKER'S IMPLICIT PREFERENCE FUNCTION1

ABSTRACT: Two simple interactive techniques are developed and illustrated by means of two different real-life examples in Thailand. The first technique, Evolutionary Sequential Multiobjective Problem Solving (ESEMOPS), is an open-ended algorithm designed for planning problems with discrete alternatives. ESEMOPS helps the decision making group (DMG) develop progressively a preference function over the alternatives. The algorithm follows an evolutionary “breeding” strategy to generate a small set of good alternative solutions. This heuristic search, which does not guarantee that the adopted ‘satisfactum’ is an efficient solution leads to plausible results when applied to the planning of the Mae Khlong-Chao Phraya interbasin water transfer and irrigation system. The second algorithm, Search Beam Method (SBM) is essentially a series of one-dimensional searches for an efficient point along a “beam” passing through a goal point. Repeated search towards displayed goal points is leading to a set of quasi non-dominated solutions. SBM is illustrated by the Ubol Ratana reservoir control problem with the two conflicting objectives of energy generation and irrigation water supply. Neither ESEMOPS nor SBM require that weights, utilities, or pairwise tradeoffs be assessed. These features have been very much appreciated by a real DMG presented with the two techniques.     

A METHODOLOGY FOR OUTDOOR RECREATION ANALYSIS IN A STATE WATER RESOURCES PLANNING STUDY1

ABSTRACT: The paper presents a methodology for outdoor recreation analysis in a comprehensive State water resources planning study. This methodology applies to determination of recreation participation desires among the population, allocation of those desires to areas of potential resources within which they must be satisfied, comparison of the areal potential resources against the allocated desires to identify areas having recreational resource deficits or needs, and exploration of alternative solutions to the identified needs. Major elements discussed are: market area, inflow-outflow, resource desire determination and projection, resource desire allocation, facility inventory, resource desire-resource analysis and alternative solutions to identified needs of water-oriented outdoor recreation.