AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF GROUND WATER RECHARGE IN THE TUCSON BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Bringing water from Colorado River via the Central Arizona Project was perceived as the sole solution for Tucson Basin's water problem. Soon after Central Arizona Project's water arrived in Tucson in 1992, its quality provoked a quarrel over its use for potable purposes. A significant outcome of that quarrel was the enactment of the 1995 Proposition 200. The Proposition 200 precludes the use of Central Arizona Project's water for potable purposes, unless it is treated. Yet, it encourages using it for non‐potable purposes and for replenishing the Tucson aquifer through recharge. This paper examines the economic issues involved in utilizing Central Arizona Project's water for recharge. Four planning scenarios were designed to measure and compare the costs and benefits with and without Central Arizona Project's water recharge. Cost‐benefit analysis was utilized to measure recharge costs and benefits and to derive a rough estimate of cost savings from preventing land subsidence. The results indicate that the institutional requirements can be met with Central Arizona Project's water recharge. The economic benefits from reducing pumping cost and saving groundwater are not economically significant. Yet, when combining the use of Central Arizona Project's water for recharge and non‐potable purposes, it demonstrates positive net economic benefits.     

AN ENGINEERING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A PROGRAM FOR ARTIFICIAL GROUNDWATER RECHARGE1

This study describes and demonstrates two alternate methods for evaluating the relative costs and benefits of artificial groundwater recharge using percolation ponds. The first analysis considers the benefits to be the reduction of pumping lifts and land subsidence; the second considers benefits as the alternative costs of a comparable surface delivery system. Example computations are carried out for an existing artificial recharge program in Santa Clara Valley in California. A computer groundwater model is used to estimate both the average long term and the drought period effects of artificial recharge in the study area. For the example problem, the benefits of reduced average annual pumping lifts and reduced incremental subsidence are greater than the total costs of continuing the existing artificial recharge program. Benefits for reduced subsidence are strongly dependent on initial aquifer conditions. The second analysis compares the costs of continuing the artificial recharge program with the costs of a surface system which would achieve the same hydraulic effects. Results indicate that the costs of artificial recharge are considerably smaller than the alternative costs of an equivalent surface system. In evaluating a particular program, consideration should also be given to uncertainties in future supplies and demands for water as well as to the probability of extreme events such as droughts.     

POTENTIAL BENEFITS AND COSTS OF INGROUND STORAGE OF IMPORTED WATER1

ABSTRACT: In the near future, groundwater storage of imported water may become increasingly important as sites for surface storage are less available. This article explores the potential economic costs and benefits of groundwater storage. The costs include capital outlays, maintenance costs, land costs, legal costs, energy costs, and opportunity costs. The benefits include land cost savings, prevention of subsidence, aquifer protection, and higher economic use of surface lands that might be covered by a reservoir.     

CHARACTERIZING GROUND WATER FLOW IN THE MUNICIPAL WELL FIELDS OF CEDAR RAPIDS,IOWA, WITH SELECTED ENVIRONMENTAL TRACERS1

ABSTRACT: Cedar Rapids obtains its municipal water supply from a shallow alluvial aquifer along the Cedar River in east-central Iowa. Water samples were collected and analyzed for selected isotopes and chlorofluorocarbons to characterize the ground-water flow system near the municipal well fields. Analyses of deuterium and oxygen-18 indicate that water in the alluvial aquifer and in the underlying carbonate bedrock aquifer was recharged from precipitation during modern climatic conditions. Analyses of tritium indicate modern, post-1952, water in the alluvial aquifer and older, pre-1952, water in the bedrock aquifer. Mixing of the modern and older waters occurs in areas where (1) the confining layer between the two aquifers is discontinuous, (2) the bedrock aquifer is fractured, or (3) pumping of supply wells induces the flow of water between aquifers. Analyses of chlorofluorocarbons were used to determine the date of recharge of water samples. Water in the bedrock aquifer likely was recharged prior to the 1950s. Water in the alluvial aquifer likely was recharged from the 1960s to 1990s. Biodegradation or sorption probably affected some of the ground water analyzed for chlorofluorocarbons. These processes reduce the concentrations of CFCs, which results in older than actual calculated dates of recharge.     

Potential for electricity savings by reducing potable water consumption in a city scale

Nowadays, it is very important that water and energy resources are used appropriately as this is a challenge to promote sustainable development. In some sectors, such as water and sewerage utilities, energy consumption depends on water consumption. The main objective of this work is to estimate the potential for electricity savings in a water and sewerage utility by reducing potable water consumption in the residential, commercial and public sectors in the city of Florianópolis, southern Brazil. These three sectors account for 98.9% of the total water consumption in the city. By using data related to energy consumption and costs that apply to the local water utility for water and sewage treatment, and also the potential for potable water savings over the three sectors, it is possible to estimate the potential for energy savings by reducing potable water consumption and sewage treatment. Potable water savings were estimated by using data available in the literature about water end-uses for different types of buildings located in Florianópolis. Three options were considered: installing dual-flush toilets, reusing greywater and using rainwater. The average potential for potable water savings were 30.0%, 53.4% and 60.3%, respectively, for the residential, commercial and public sectors. Thus, the average potable water savings amount to about 10,153,835 m³/year, and the electricity savings amount to 4.4 GW h/year, which would be enough to supply 1217 houses or flats in Florianópolis, with an average energy consumption of 300 kW h/month.     

ARTIFICIAL RECHARGE IN SASKATCHEWAN: CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The use of artificial recharge in Saskatchewan and the rest of Canada to improve rural community and farmstead domestic water supply has great potential. Approximately 75 percent of the people in rural Saskatchewan and 26 percent of all the people in Canada are dependent on ground water for their domestic water supply. Typically, this water is highly mineralized and is often unpalatable due to odor and taste. A source of readily available, high quality water to eliminate expensive chemical treatment of available water and long distance hauling would be of significant value to rural residents. Storage of high quality water in aquifers by injection through wells has been documented and has been shown to depend on the use of a surface water catchment system to provide the high quality water. Since air entrainment or formation clogging can occur in poorly operated recharge schemes, development of proper design and operation of recharging procedure is required. This can be accomplished by using an injection response computer model and a properly designed injection system. Small scale artificial recharge projects will provide a valuable commodity to rural water users and will promote sustainable and conjunctive use of surface and ground water resources.     

LEAKY ACRES RECHARGE FACILITY: A TEN-YEAR EVALUATION1

From 1971-1980, studies were conducted at Fresno, California, to identify and quantify, where possible, the soil and water chemistry, subsurface geologic, hydrologic, biologic, and operational factors that determine the long term (10-year) effectiveness of basin type artificial ground water recharge through alluvial soils. This paper updates previous findings and refers to publications that describe the geology beneath the basins and regional geology that determine the transmission and storage properties for local ground water management and chemical quality enhancement. High quality irrigation water from the Kings River was used for recharge. Construction and land costs for the present expanded facility 83 ha (205.2 ac) using three parcels of land were $1,457,100. The nine-year annual mean costs for only canal water, maintenance, and operation were $110.42/ha·m ($13.62/ac·ft) based on an average recharge rate of 1338 ha·m/yr (10,848 ac·ft/yr) at 86 percent facility efficiency. The measured end of season recharge rate averaged 14.97 ± 0.24 cm/day. The 10-year mean actual recharge rate based on actual water delivered, total ponded area, and total days of recharge was 12.1 cm/day.     

Assessment of Water Supply as an Ecosystem Service in a Rural-Urban Watershed in Southwestern Mexico City

Studies from the ecosystem services perspective can provide a useful framework because they allow us to fully examine the benefits that humans obtain from socio-ecological systems. Mexico City, the second largest city in the world, has faced severe problems related to water shortages, which have worsened due to increasing population. Demand for space has forced changes in land cover, including covering areas that are essential for groundwater recharge. The city has 880 km² of forest areas that are crucial for the water supply. The Magdalena River Watershed was chosen as a model because it is a well-preserved zone within Mexico City and it provides water for the population. The general aim of this study was to assess the ecosystem service of the water supply in the Magdalena River Watershed by determining its water balance (SWAT model) and the number of beneficiaries of the ecosystem services. The results showed that the watershed provides 18.4 hm³ of water per year. Baseflow was dominant, with a contribution of 85%, while surface runoff only accounted for 15%. The zone provides drinking water to 78,476 inhabitants and could supply 153,203 potential beneficiaries. This work provides an example for understanding how ecosystem processes determine the provision of ecosystem services and benefits to the population in a rural–urban watershed in Mexico City.     

RECHARGE OF THE SNAKE RWER PLAIN AQUIFER: TRANSITIONING FROM INCIDENTAL TO MANAGED1

ABSTRACT: Declining ground-water levels and spring discharges have heightened water user concerns about the sustainability of the Snake River Plain aquifer in southern Idaho. Diminished recharge from surface water irrigation and increased irrigation pumping have been depleting the aquifer at a rate of about 350,000 acre-feet/year. Previously, aquifer conditions were treated as an uncontrollable consequence of weather and development activities. With increasing competition for available water, the State appears to be progressing through a three-stage process of recharge management. The first stage is that which has occurred historically, where recharge is largely an incidental effect of surface water irrigation. The second stage is the implementation of intentional recharge with little regard to identifying or maximizing benefits. Idaho has been at this stage for the past few years. The State is entering a third stage in which recharge sites will be located and designed to meet specific water user and environmental objectives. Preliminary estimates using numerical and analytical models demonstrate that managed recharge within a few miles of the river will result in short-term increases in spring discharge. More distant recharge sites are needed to provide longer-term benefits. The primary challenge facing implementation of the managed recharge program will be the balancing of economic and environmental costs and benefits and to whom they accrue.     

Cost/Benefit Considerations for Recent Saltcedar Control,Middle Pecos River,New Mexico

Major benefits were weighed against major costs associated with recent saltcedar control efforts along the Middle Pecos River, New Mexico. The area of study was restricted to both sides of the channel and excluded tributaries along the 370 km between Sumner and Brantley dams. Direct costs (helicopter spraying, dead tree removal, and revegetation) within the study area were estimated to be $2.2 million but possibly rising to $6.4 million with the adoption of an aggressive revegetation program. Indirect costs associated with increased potential for erosion and reservoir sedimentation would raise the costs due to increased evaporation from more extensive shallows in the Pecos River as it enters Brantley Reservoir. Actions such as dredging are unlikely given the conservative amount of sediment calculated (about 1% of the reservoir pool). The potential for water salvage was identified as the only tangible benefit likely to be realized under the current control strategy. Estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) using Landsat TM data allowed estimation of potential water salvage as the difference in ET before and after treatment, an amount totaling 7.41 million m³ (6010 acre-ft) per year. Previous saltcedar control efforts of roughly the same magnitude found that salvaged ET recharged groundwater and no additional flows were realized within the river. Thus, the value of this recharge is probably less than the lowest value quoted for actual in-channel flow, and estimated to be < $63,000 per year. Though couched in terms of costs and benefits, this paper is focused on what can be considered the key trade-off under a complete eradication strategy: water salvage vs. erosion and sedimentation. It differs from previous efforts by focusing on evaluating the impacts of actual control efforts within a specific system. Total costs (direct plus potential indirect) far outweighed benefits in this simple comparison and are expected to be ongoing. Problems induced by saltcedar control may permanently reduce reservoir capacity and increase reservoir evaporation rates, which could further deplete supplies on this water short system. These potential negative consequences highlight that such costs and benefits need to be considered before initiating extensive saltcedar control programs on river systems of the western United States.     

FEASIBILITY OF INTERBASIN WATER TRANSFER1

ABSTRACT: Interbasin water transfer is one of the most controversial water-resources-planning topics. Local communities, particularly those from which the water is to be taken (donor regions), generate enough opposition to doom many projects to failure. The opposition often arises because planners have traditionally considered excess water a free commodity rather than a marketable resource. To make transfer schemes mutually acceptable to donor and recipient regions, visible benefits must be offered. Agreement must be made on an acceptable purchase price and/or on other benefits such as a substantial amount of low flow augmentation or possibly some degree of flood control on the donor source stream. The hydrologic and economic feasibility of water transfer from the East Susquehanna River basin to the Delaware Reservoir System for supplemental supply to the New York City area was investigated. Nine alternative schemes for diversions up to 400 cfs and compensations in the form of low flow augmentation and/or flood control were considered resulting in unit costs to the recipient region between $90 and $380/mg. If only the minimum state-mandated flow is released to the Susquehanna River, the savings to the water recipients would be sufficient to pay a purchase price of about $21/mg, which would be equivalent to a total amount of $420,000/year for an average export of 100 cfs.     

METHODOLOGY OF DELINEATING WELLHEAD PROTECTION ZONES IN CRYSTALLINE BEDROCK IN MAINE1

ABSTRACT: Delineation of contributing areas for wellhead protection around supply wells drilled into bedrock in Maine, USA, is currently achieved by assigning a fixed radius circle around the well. This project develops a methodology that incorporates hydrogeologic processes and ground water modeling (MODFLOW) and accounts for variable data availability to estimate the areas that contribute water to 26 bedrock supply wells. Outcrop fracture mapping and lineament analysis are used to characterize the fracture system. Multiple simulations are constructed of each site using ranges of values for recharge, hydraulic conductivity, and anisotropy. Uncertainty in the delineation process is accounted for by portraying the delineated areas as confidence zones that are constructed by overlapping the capture zones from the multiple simulations. The results are variable and depend on the ability to characterize a site in a way that can be easily modeled. Sites with complex hydrogeology tend to have larger contributing areas that reflect the greater uncertainty in the parameters. The majority of the sites, however, produce reasonable results that provide a much more accurate depiction of the area likely to contribute to a bedrock well than the fixed radius circle.     

PROJECTED EFFECTS OF ENERGY POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL WATER USE AND IRRIGATION1

ABSTRACT: A national and interregional programming model was used in projecting the impacts of alternative energy policies and prices on agricultural production, land use, and irrigation. The alternatives analyzed include (a) natural gas deregulation, (b) natural gas curtailment, (c) doubled energy prices, and (d) tripled energy prices. These alternatives are compared with a base alternative where prices and conditions are at normal levels. Restraints in the model control availability of water, land, nitrogen fertilizers, and energy. Water production functions were used to adjust water use to conform with projected energy prices and policies. Natural gas curtailment would have the largest effect on nitrogen use on irrigated land. Values or shadow prices for lands that remains in irrigation would increase under all of the alternatives because of reduced supply. Increased energy prices generally would increase use of surface water for irrigation and reduce use of ground water due to higher pumping costs. Reductions of 50 percent or more in ground water use would occur in the South Central and Western regions of the United States. Water supply prices increase under all of the alternatives; with the amount varying by regions and the policy or price situation.     

WATER SUPPLY AS A LIMITING FACTOR IN DEVELOPING COMMUNITIES: ENDOGENOUS VS. EXOGENOUS SOURCES1

ABSTRACT: A growing number of developing communities in New Jersey is planning for an ultimate population that would be supplied by endogenous sources of water. At the state and national level, however, reliance on exogenous sources appears to be in favor. Both viewpoints, of course, recognize that water supply is one of the major critical factors in determining the capacity of a land area to support population. Three planning issues that bear on this endogenous-exogenous source controversy are discussed: 1) deep aquifers which have recharge areas in other political jurisdictions and are therefore regulated by other bodies will not count as an endogenous source, reliance will be placed only on shallow water table aquifers which are recharged by local precipitation; 2) total development of the groundwater resources of a headwaters community could result in severe base flow diminishment, thereby supporting the notion that these communities have a regional responsibility to restrict their growth so as to preserve and protect the water supply for downstream users; and 3) yield decrementing estimates, i.e., how much recharge water is lost to runoff as a consequence of development, are needed in order to assess the magnitude of local water resources.     

RED RIVER OF THE NORTH BASIN,MINNESOTA, NORTH DAKOTA,AND SOUTH DAKOTA1

ABSTRACT: The environmental setting of the Red River of the North basin within the United States is diverse in ways that could significantly control the areal distribution and flow of water and, therefore, the distribution and concentration of constituents that affect water quality. Continental glaciers shaped a landscape of very flat lake plains near the center of the basin, and gently rolling uplands, lakes, and wetlands along the basin margins. The fertile, black, fine-grained soils and landscape are conducive to agriculture. Productive cropland covers 66 percent of the land area. The principal crops are wheat, barley, soybeans, sunflowers, corn, and hay. Pasture, forests, open water, and wetlands comprise most of the remaining land area. About one-third of the 1990 population (511,000) lives in the cities of Fargo and Grand Forks, North Dakota and Moorhead, Minnesota. The climate of the Red River of the North basin is continental and ranges from dry subhumid in the western part of the basin to subhumid in the eastern part. From its origin, the Red River of the North meanders northward for 394 miles to the Canadian border, a path that is nearly double the straight-line distance. The Red River of the North normally receives over 75 percent of its annual flow from the eastern tributaries as a result of regional patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration, soils, and topography. Most runoff occurs in spring and early summer as a result of rains falling on melting snow or heavy rains falling on saturated soils. Lakes, prairie potholes, and wetlands are abundant in most physiographic areas outside of the Red River Valley Lake Plain. Dams, drainage ditches, and wetlands alter the residence time of water, thereby affecting the amount of sediment, biota, and dissolved constituents carried by the water. Ground water available to wells, streams, and springs primarily comes from sand and gravel aquifers near land surface or buried within 100 to 300 feet of glacial drift that mantles the entire Red River of the North basin. Water moves through the system of bedrock and glacial-drift aquifers in a regional flow system generally toward the Red River of the North and in complex local flow systems controlled by local topography. Many of the bedrock and glacial-drift aquifers are hydraulically connected to streams in the region. The total water use in 1990, about 196 million gallons per day, was mostly for public supply and irrigation. Slightly more than one half of the water used comes from ground-water sources compared to surface-water sources. Most municipalities obtain their water from ground-water sources. However, the largest cities (Fargo, Grand Forks and Moorhead) obtain most of their water from the Red River of the North. The types and relative amounts of various habitats change among the five primary ecological regions within the Red River of the North basin. Headwater tributaries are more diverse and tend to be similar to middle-reach tributaries in character rather than the lower reaches of these tributaries for the Red River of the North. Concentrations of dissolved chemical constituents in surface waters are normally low during spring runoff and after thunderstorms. The Red River of the North generally has a dissolved-solids concentration less than 600 milligrams per liter with mean values ranging from 347 milligrams per liter near the headwaters to 406 milligrams per liter at the Canadian border near Emerson, Manitoba. Calcium and magnesium are the principal cations and bicarbonate is the principal anion along most of the reach of the Red River of the North. Dissolved-solids concentrations generally are lower in the eastern tributaries than in the tributaries draining the western part of the basin. At times of low flow, when water in streams is largely from ground-water seepage, the water quality more reflects the chemistry of the glacial-drift aquifer system. Ground water in the surficial aquifers commonly is a calcium bicarbonate type with dissolved-solids concentration generally between 300 and 700 milligrams per liter. As the ground water moves down gradient, dissolved-solids concentration increases, and magnesium and sulfate are predominant ions. Water in sedimentary bedrock aquifers is predominantly sodium and chloride and is characterized by dissolved-solids concentrations in excess of 1,000 milligrams per liter. Sediment erosion by wind and water can be increased by cultivation practices and by livestock that trample streambanks. Nitrate-nitrogen concentrations also can increase locally in surficial aquifers beneath cropland that is fertilized, particularly where irrigated. Nitrogen and phosphorous in surface runoff from cropland fertilizers and nitrogen from manure can contribute nutrients to lakes, reservoirs, and streams. Some of the more persistent pesticides, such as atrazine, have been detected in the Red River of the North. Few data are available to conclusively define the presence or absence of pesticides and their break-down products in Red River of the North basin aquifers or streams. Urban runoff and treated effluent from municipalities are discharged into streams. These point discharges contain some quantity of organic compounds from storm runoff, turf-applied pesticides, and trace metals. The largest releases of treated-municipal wastes are from the population centers along the Red River of the North and its larger tributaries. Sugar-beet refining, potato processing, poultry and meat packing, and milk, cheese, and cream processing are among the major food processes from which treated wastes are released to streams, mostly in or near the Red River of the North.     

CITY OF TUCSON WASTE WATER EFFLUENT DELIVERY FACILITY1

ABSTRACT: The Tucson area is totally dependent on ground water, which is in increasingly short supply due to excessive overdrafts. Tucson area waste water treatment plants discharge material quantities of secondary effluent downstream, which is lost to evapotranspiration and recharge of the ground water basin. The city and the four large mining companies who share the common Santa Cruz basin ground water, recognized the common water supply problem and agreed to fund a feasibility study for mining process use of the effluent to partly alleviate the overdraft of ground water. The study analyzed the projected waste water effluent resources, potential mining company demand for waste water effluent and possible interface of an effluent delivery facility with the proposed Central Arizona Project. The effluent resources were analyzed with respect to potential demand. An optimum alignment was selected. An optimum system was detailed through design schematics, amortized cost and finance requirements, and an implementation schedule. It was concluded that a waste water effluent delivery facility could be implemented which would utilize reclaimed effluent in quantities approximating 35 percent of basin overdraft and which would provide revenue for full cost recovery over a 20 year operation period. The mining companies are studying the internal economic impacts of the project.     

Available Water Supplies in Beijing,China, Under Single‐ and Multi‐Year Drought

Since its implementation in 2015, the Middle Route of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Project (MR‐SNWDP) has transferred an average of 45 billion cubic meters of surface water per year from the Yangtze River in southern China to the Yellow River and Hai River Basin in northern China, but how that supply is able to cope with droughts under different scenarios has not been explored. In this study, using the water demand for 2020 as the guaranteed water target, a Water Evaluation and Planning system was used to simulate available water supplies in Beijing under different drought scenarios. In the case of a single‐year drought, without the MR‐SNWDP, Beijing’s water shortage ratio was 16.7%; with the MR‐SNWDP, this ratio reduced to 7.3%. In the case of a multi‐year drought, without the MR‐SNWDP, Beijing’s water shortage ratio was 25.3%; with the MR‐SNWDP, this ratio reduced to 7.4% and domestic water supply was improved. Our research suggests that to prepare for multi‐year drought in the Beijing area, the SNWDP supports increased supplies to the region that would mitigate drought effects. This study is, however, mostly focused on water supply provision to Beijing and does not comprehensively evaluate other potential impacts. Multiple additional avenues could be pursued that include replenishing groundwater, increasing reservoir storage, and water conservation methods. Further research is needed to explore the relative costs and benefits of these approaches.     

A LAND-USE POLICY BASED ON WATER SUPPLY1

ABSTRACT: Santa Fe Country, New Mexico, has adopted a land-use policy in which zoning densities provide a balance between the water use on a parcel of land and the water supply available bencath that land. In two of four mapped hydrologic zones, ground water in storage will be allowed to be mined to exhaustion in 100 years (40 years in urban areas). Elsewhere, the policy is for a steady state with use balanced by recharge. Equations to determine storage or recharge can be solved using site specific data or regional estimates of hydrologic conditions. Substantial reductions in the lot size requirements are allowed if water conservation convenants are adopted. Public acceptance indicates that the policy successfully integrates technical and political concerns. It is simple to administer, yet reflects widely expressed public goals and values.     

THE NATURE OF LONG RUN COST SAVINGS DUE TO WATER CONSERVATION1

Savings in capital, operation, and maintenance costs of new water supply facilities are referred to as “long run foregone costs.” Any conservation measure leads to reduction of water use or loss, however, significant long run foregone costs are realized only when reductions in size or delays in construction of facilities result. In order to accurately evaluate these costs it is necessary to know which facilities are affected and how they are affected (i.e., eliminated, downsized, or delayed). The effects of several levels of conservation on long run fore gone costs for an actual study are presented and some easy to use equations that may be used to calculate such savings are then derived. Some rules are presented to determine if it is more economical to delay construction or downsize facilities.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on water resources in the Delaware River basin were determined. The study focused on two important water-resource components in the basin: (1) storage in the reservoirs that supply New York City, and (2) the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary. Current reservoir operating procedures provide for releases from the New York City reservoirs to maintain the position of the salt front in the estuary downstream from freshwater intakes and ground-water recharge zones in the Philadelphia metropolitan area. A hydrologic model of the basin was developed to simulate changes in New York City reservoir storage and the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary given changes in temperature and precipitation. Results of simulations indicated that storage depletion in the New York City reservoirs is a more likely effect of changes in temperature and precipitation than is the upstream movement of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary. In contrast, the results indicated that a rise in sea level would have a greater effect on movement of the salt front than on storage in the New York City reservoirs. The model simulations also projected that, by decreasing current mandated reservoir releases, a balance can be reached wherein the negative effects of climate change on storage in the New York City reservoirs and the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary are minimized. Finally, the results indicated that natural variability in climate is of such magnitude that its effects on water resources could overwhelm the effects of long-term trends in precipitation and temperature.