Evaluation of Flood and Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy

We have compiled a database of floods and landslides that occurred in Italy between AD 1279 and 2002 and caused deaths, missing persons, injuries, and homelessness. Analysis of the database indicates that more than 50,593 people died, went missing, or were injured in 2580 flood and landslide events. Harmful events were inventoried in 26.3% of the 8103 Italian municipalities. Fatal events were most frequent in the Alpine regions of northern Italy and were caused by both floods and landslides. In southern Italy, landslides were the principal agents of fatalities and were most numerous in the Campania region. Casualties were most frequent in the autumn. Fast-moving landslides, including rock falls, rockslides, rock avalanches, and debris flows, caused the largest number of deaths. In order to assess the overall risk posed by these processes, we merged the historical catalogs and identified 2682 “hydrogeomorphological” events that triggered single or multiple landslides and floods. We estimated individual risk through the calculation of mortality rates for both floods and landslides and compared these rates to the death rates for other natural, medical, and human-induced hazards in Italy. We used the frequency distribution of events with fatalities to ascertain the magnitude and frequency of the societal risks posed by floods and landslides. We quantified these risks in a Bayesian model that describes the probabilities of fatal flood and landslide events in Italy.     

Disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk: A study in an alpine valley in Italy

Italy is a country highly vulnerable to floods and landslides. The present study aims to investigate disaster preparedness and perception of flood risk in a group of people living in an alpine valley in the north of Italy. Four hundred seven adult residents in nine communities exposed to hydrogeological risk were interviewed by using a structured questionnaire. Participants were asked about the adoption of a set of protective behaviors that can prevent negative consequences of floods. Perception of flood risk was assessed by means of a one-dimensional scale that was developed and validated by the authors. Items included in this scale asked participants to estimate likelihood of occurrence of different flood consequences and to express feelings of worry associated to them. Socio-demographic and experiential information on respondents were also collected. Overall, results showed that most of respondents were fairly well prepared to deal with a future flood disaster. Correlational and regression analyses indicated that disaster preparedness was positively associated with risk perception. In accordance with literature, there was not a significant relation between likelihood judgments and adoption of protective behaviors, while feelings of worry were associated with disaster preparedness. Authors interpret their results in relation to the socio-environmental characteristics of the studied communities. Theoretical, empirical and practical implications of the findings are also discussed.     

Flash Flood Occurrences Since the 17th Century in Steep Drainage Basins in Southern Italy

The historical floods that have occurred since the seventeenth century were collected for a study area in southern Italy. Damages caused by floods, rainfall and the main anthropogenic modifications are discussed all together. The aim was to assess whether the frequency of floods is changing and, if so, whether these changes can be attributed to either rainfall and/or anthropogenic modifications. In 4?% of cases, mainly occurred in past centuries, floods damaged people. Hydraulic works, roads and private buildings were the more frequently damaged elements (25, 18 and 14?% of the cases, respectively). The annual variability of rainfall was discussed using an annual index. Short duration-high intensity rainfalls were characterized considering time series of annual maxima of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24?h and daily rainfall. The rainfall shows a decreasing trend, in terms of both the annual maximum of short duration and the annual amount. The population has been progressively increasing since the sixteenth century, except during the years following the catastrophic 1908 earthquake. The rate of population growth has been very high since the second half of the twentieth century; the urbanized areas greatly increased, especially following the second half of the twentieth century. At the same time, the trend of damaging floods has been increasing, especially since the seventies. The analysis indicates that, despite a rainfall trend favourable towards a reduction in flood occurrence, floods damage has not decreased. This seems to be mainly the effect of mismanagement of land use modifications.     

Using OpenMI and a Model MAP to Integrate WaterML2 and NetCDF Data Sources into Flood Modeling of Genoa,Italy

Extreme hydrometeorological events such as flash floods have caused considerable loss of life and damage to infrastructure over recent years. Flood events in the Mediterranean region between 1990 and 2006 caused over 4,500 fatalities and cost over €29 billion in damage, with Italy one of the worst affected countries. The Distributed Computing Infrastructure for Hydro‐Meteorology (DRIHM) project is a European initiative aiming at providing an open, fully integrated eScience environment for predicting, managing, and mitigating the risks related to such extreme weather phenomena. Incorporating both modeled and observational data sources, it enables seamless access to a set of computing resources with the objective of providing a collection of services for performing experiments with numerical models in meteorology, hydrology, and hydraulics. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how this flexible modeling architecture has been constructed using a set of standards including the NetCDF and WaterML2 file formats, in‐memory coupling with OpenMI, controlled vocabularies such as CF Standard Names, ISO19139 metadata, and a Model MAP (Metadata, Adaptors, Portability) gateway concept for preparing numerical models for standardized use. Hydraulic results, including the impact to buildings and hazards to people, are given for the use cases of the severe and fatal flash floods, which occurred in Genoa, Italy in November 2011 and October 2014.     

Comparing Landslide Maps: A Case Study in the Upper Tiber River Basin, Central Italy

/ The preparation of landslide maps is an important step in any landslide hazard assessment. Landslides maps are prepared around the world, but little effort is made to assess their reliability, outline their main characteristics, and pinpoint their limitations. In order to redress this imbalance, the results of a long-term research project in the Upper Tiber River basin in central Italy are used to compare reconnaissance and detailed landslide inventory maps, statistical and geomorphologically based density maps, and landslide hazard maps obtained by multivariate statistical modeling. An attempt is made to discuss advantages and limitations of the available maps, outlining possible applications for decision-makers, land developers, and environmental and civil defence agencies. The Tiber experiment has confirmed that landslides can be cost-effectively mapped by interpreting aerial photographs coupled with field surveys and that errors and uncertainties associated with the inventory can be quantified. The experiment has shown that GIS makes it easy to prepare landslide density maps and facilitates the production of statistically based landslide hazard models. The former supply an overview of the distribution of landslides that is easily comprehended but do not provide insight on the causes of instability. The latter, giving insight into the causes of instability, are diagnostically powerful, but are difficult to prepare and exploit.     

The florence floods—What the papers said

The floods of 1966 in Northern Italy provoked varying reactions from officialdom and the press. Political and administrative problems received as much coverage as the environmental effects of the disaster, but learned opinion gained a new, if rather temporary, status in the newspapers of the time. In retrospect, economic recovery seems to have occurred more rapidly than predicted in the gloomy forecasts of the time, although a clear picture of the disruption caused by the floods     

Place attachment and flood preparedness

Does place attachment and the consequent emotional connections and ties that people have with environments affect their preparedness for natural disasters, such as floods? This study took up this research question for the understudied geographical region of Orissa, India. In particular, investigation focused on three kinds of place attachment, viz. economic, genealogical, and religious. Contextualized scales for place attachment and flood preparedness were developed for a survey. Data were collected from 300 residents in flood prone areas. Validity and reliability of the scales were established. Overall, place attachment was found to significantly influence flood preparedness. Hierarchical regression analysis was performed to determine whether the three factors of place attachment influence flood preparedness. Controlling for confounding effects of age and family type, regression analysis revealed that people having genealogical and economic place attachment prepared for floods, but those with religious place attachment did not prepare for floods. The implications of these findings for future studies are described.     

Culture and the environment in Italy

This essay evaluates the historical development and current background of human-environment relationships in Italy. The Italian landscape consists of very varied terrain, and periodically suffers from all kinds of natural hazard, especially earthquakes, landslides, floods, and accelerated soil erosion. Some measure of environmental conservation was achieved by the Etruscans and Romans, but the Classical period also marked the beginning of serious lowland waterlogging, malarial infestation, upland soil erosion, and deforestation, which all increased during the Middle Ages. From the Renaissance to the 18th century, there was a diffusion of planned landscapes and carefully managed estates; but by the 20th century, many rural areas could not support growing populations and much land was in need of improvement. Underdevelopment and latifundium agriculture increased the vulnerability to environmental hazards of the Mezzogiorno (Italian South), while the subsequent disappearance of the peasant culture seems not to have led to greatly improved conservation or land management. Poorly farmed or managed landscapes and poorly maintained historic towns have undergone some virtually irreversible degradation, especially with respect to landslides and earthquake damage. Elsewhere in Italy, unchecked urbanization, weak planning laws, and their inadequate enforcement have helped both to reduce environmental quality, by overdevelopment of valued landscapes, and to increase natural disaster vulnerability, by encouraging occupance of natural hazard zones. Although there are signs that the government is beginning to respond to the cumulative effect of environmental degradation, the measures are insufficient to reverse the overall trend toward decadence that characterizes human-land relationships in Italy.     

Landslide Vulnerability Criteria: A Case Study from Umbria,Central Italy

Little is known about the vulnerability to landslides, despite landslides causing frequent and widespread damage to the population and the built-up environment in many areas of the world. Lack of information about vulnerability to landslides limits our ability to determine landslide risk. This paper provides information on the vulnerability of buildings and roads to landslides in Umbria, central Italy. Information on 103 landslides of the slide and slide-earth flow types that have resulted in damage to buildings and roads at 90 sites in Umbria is used to establish dependencies between the area of the landslide and the vulnerability to landslides. The dependencies obtained are applied in the hills surrounding the town of Collazzone, in central Umbria, an area for which a detailed landslide inventory map is available. By exploiting the landslide inventory and the established vulnerability curves, the geographical distribution of the vulnerability to landslides is mapped and statistics of the expected damage are calculated. Reliability and limits of the vulnerability thresholds and of the obtained vulnerability assessment are discussed.     

Remote sensing and GIS for wetland inventory, mapping and change analysis

A multiple purpose wetland inventory is being developed and promoted through partnerships and specific analyses at different scales in response to past uncertainties and gaps in inventory coverage. A partnership approach is being promoted through the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands to enable a global inventory database to be compiled from individual projects and analyses using remote sensing and GIS. Individual projects that are currently part of this global effort are described. They include an analysis of the Ramsar sites' database to map the distribution of Ramsar sites across global ecoregions and to identify regions and wetland types that are under-represented in the database. Given the extent of wetland degradation globally, largely due to agricultural activities, specific attention is directed towards the usefulness of Earth Observation in providing information that can be used to more effectively manage wetlands. As an example, a further project using satellite data and GIS to quantify the condition of wetlands along the western coastline of Sri Lanka is described and trends in land use due to changes in agriculture, sedimentation and settlement patterns are outlined. At a regional scale, a project to map and assess, using remote sensing, individual wetlands used for agriculture in eight countries in southern Africa is also described. Land cover and the extent of inundation at each site is being determined from a multi-temporal data set of images as a base for further assessment of land use change. Integrated fully within these analyses is the development of local capacity to plan and undertake such analyses and in particular to relate the outcomes to wetland management and to compile data on the distribution, extent and condition of wetlands globally.     

城市空气质量达标规划编制中的关键技术及其案例应用

本文结合重庆市空气质量限期达标规划编制案例,介绍了城市空气质量达标规划编制中的几个关键技术及其具体应用,包括本地化污染源排放清单编制、污染物来源解析、污染物排放形势预测与减排潜力分析以及大气环境容量核算等。本地化污染源排放清单是城市空气质量达标规划编制的基础,针对现有污染源制定科学合理的减排方案是达标规划的核心内容。分析不同区域的污染物组分浓度特征、污染源贡献以及未来污染排放形势预测,有助于识别出制约未来空气质量达标的关键因素及污染源。基于污染源减排潜力和污染传输矩阵制定的污染源减排方案更具合理性和可行性,应用空气质量模型估算大气环境容量可为规划目标可达性提供依据。     

Inventory of ocean monitoring in the Southern California Bight

Monitoring of the ocean environment in southern California, USA, has been conducted by a diverse array of public and private organizations with different motivations, working on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To create a basis from which to integrate information from these diverse programs, we conducted an inventory of ocean monitoring activities in the Southern California Bight to address the following questions: (1) How much money is being expended annually on marine monitoring programs? (2) Which organizations are conducting the most monitoring? (3) How are resources allocated among the different types of monitoring programs? This inventory focused on programs existing, or those expected to be in existence, for at least 10 years and that were active at any time between 1994 and 1997. For each program identified for inclusion in this study, information was collected on the number of sites, sampling intensity, parameters measured, and methods used. Levels of effort were translated into cost estimates based upon a market survey of local consulting firms. One hundred fourteen marine monitoring programs, conducted by 65 organizations and costing US $31 million annually, were identified. Most of the effort (81 programs, 65% of samples, 70% of costs) was expended by ocean dischargers as part of their compliance with National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit requirements. Federal programs (11 programs, 25% of samples, 10% of total expenditures) expended more than state or local government programs. More than one quarter of monitoring expenditures were conducted to measure concentrations and mass of effluent inputs to the ocean. The largest effort expended on receiving water monitoring was for measuring bacteria, followed by sediments, fish/shellfish, water quality, and intertidal habitats. The large level of expenditures by individual agencies has presented opportunities for integrating small, site-specific ocean monitoring programs into regional- and national-scale monitoring and assessment programs.     

Inventory of Ocean Monitoring in the Southern California Bight

Monitoring of the ocean environment in southern California, USA, has been conducted by a diverse array of public and private organizations with different motivations, working on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To create a basis from which to integrate information from these diverse programs, we conducted an inventory of ocean monitoring activities in the Southern California Bight to address the following questions: (1) How much money is being expended annually on marine monitoring programs? (2) Which organizations are conducting the most monitoring? (3) How are resources allocated among the different types of monitoring programs? This inventory focused on programs existing, or those expected to be in existence, for at least 10 years and that were active at any time between 1994 and 1997. For each program identified for inclusion in this study, information was collected on the number of sites, sampling intensity, parameters measured, and methods used. Levels of effort were translated into cost estimates based upon a market survey of local consulting firms. One hundred fourteen marine monitoring programs, conducted by 65 organizations and costing US $31 million annually, were identified. Most of the effort (81 programs, 65% of samples, 70% of costs) was expended by ocean dischargers as part of their compliance with National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit requirements. Federal programs (11 programs, 25% of samples, 10% of total expenditures) expended more than state or local government programs. More than one quarter of monitoring expenditures were conducted to measure concentrations and mass of effluent inputs to the ocean. The largest effort expended on receiving water monitoring was for measuring bacteria, followed by sediments, fish/shellfish, water quality, and intertidal habitats. The large level of expenditures by individual agencies has presented opportunities for integrating small, site-specific ocean monitoring programs into regional- and national-scale monitoring and assessment programs.     

A TREATISE ON THE USE OF EXPECTED VALUES IN WATER RESOURCE PROJECT EVALUATION1

This paper focuses on two factors that influence the acceptability of the expected value criterion as a method of handling risk or uncertainty in decision-making where damages from unusual physical occurrences such as hurricanes or floods must be considered. These are the length of time of project existence and the problem of obtaining accurate estimates of the probability of occurrence for different sizes of natural disasters. The problem of estimating accurate probabilities of occurrence for different sizes of natural disasters is not as great as it might appear and in most situations will not defeat the usefulness of the method. The time span during which the project is expected to exist has greater implications for the usefulness of the expected value approach appears highly applicable. However, it becomes less applicable for projects that are short-term in nature. The basis for distinguishing between short- and long-term projects is presented.     

Environmental impact assessment for Xiaolangdi Yellow River multi-purpose economic-cumenvironmental improvement project

Summary The Yellow River is renowned for its life-endangering floods, a problem augmented by the continuous heavy siltation of its lower flood plain. Major dam and reservoir projects have both positive and negative environmental impacts, and their construction requires careful environmental consideration. This paper outlines the key findings of environmental impact assessment reports related to the Xiaolangdi Yellow River dam/reservoir project. The authors conclude that the project, as planned, should provide an optimal mix of both economic and environmental benefits.This paper is modified from a presentation given to the 1993 Annual Meeting of the International Association for Impact Assessment (IAIA) in Shanghai, China.     

Flood problems in Bangladesh: Is there an indigenous solution?

Bangladesh, situated on the delta of the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, and the Meghna rivers, experiences two distinct types of inundations: (a) river floods resulting from excessive runoff contributed by monsoon precipitation and (b) coastal floods induced by storm surges of tropical cyclones. The river floods are normal annual events and human settlements and agricultural practices have adapted admirably well to their regimes. Abnormal floods that occur once in every few years cause serious damage to crops and properties. To minimize flood losses, a number of modern engineering projects have been constructed within Bangladesh. However, the successful solution of the problem would probably require some international collaboration for basinwide unified systems planning, since large parts of the drainage basins of Bangladesh lie beyond its borders. In the absence of such collaboration, internal resources should be utilized for the construction of smaller public projects, such aspolders, and for encouraging and reinforcing various types of indigenous adjustments to floods. There are very few successful indigenous adjustments to coastal floods. Most of the structural solutions, such as community shelters and higher embankments, are expensive public projects that are probably beyond the means of the internal resources of the country.     

Transboundary River Floods and Institutional Capacity1

Abstract: While transboundary flood events have become more frequent on a global scale the past two decades, they appear to be overlooked in the international river basin (IRB) cooperation and management arena. The present study therefore combined geopolitical measures with biophysical and socioeconomic variables in an attempt to identify the IRBs with adequate institutional capacity for management of transboundary floods. It also classified basins that would possibly benefit from enlarging the institutional capacity related to transboundary floods. Of the 279 known IRBs, only 78 were represented by a transboundary rivers institution. A mere eight of the 153 identified institutions had transboundary flooding listed as an issue in their mandate. Overall, 43 basins, where transboundary floods were frequent during the period 1985‐2005, had no institutional capacity for IRBs. The average death and displacement tolls were found to be lower in the 37 basins with institutional capacity, even though these basins experienced twice as much transboundary floods with significant higher magnitudes than those in basins without institutional capacity. Overall, the results suggested that institutional capacity plays a role in the reduction of flood‐related casualties and affected individuals. River basins such as the Juba‐Shibeli, Han, Kura‐Araks, Ma, Maritsa, Po, Coco/Segovia, Grijalva, Artibonite, Changuinola, Coatan Achute, and Orinoco experienced more than one transboundary river flood, but have not yet set up any institutions for such events, or signed any appropriate treaties focused on floods. These basins were therefore recommended to consider focusing attention on this apparent lack of institutional capacity when it comes to managing transboundary flood events.     

Sources, sinks, and exposure pathways of lead in urban garden soil

The chemistry of Pb in urban soil must be understood in order to limit human exposure to Pb in soil and produce and to implement remediation schemes. In inner-city gardens where Pb contamination is prevalent and financial resources are limited, it is critical to identify the variables that control Pb bioavailability. Field-portable X-ray fluorescence was used to measure Pb in 103 urban gardens in Roxbury and Dorchester, MA, and 88% were found to contain Pb above the USEPA reportable limit of 400 mug g(-1). Phosphorus, iron, loss on ignition, and pH data were collected, Pb-bearing phases were identified by X-ray diffraction, and Pb isotopes were measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Four test crops were grown both in situ and in Roxbury soil in a greenhouse, and plant tissue was analyzed for Pb uptake by polarized energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence. Variation at the neighborhood scale in soil mineralogical and chemical characteristics suggests that the bioavailable fraction of Pb in gardens is site specific. Based on Pb isotope analysis, two historical Pb sources appear to dominate the inventory of Pb in Roxbury gardens: leaded gasoline ((207) Pb/(206) Pb = 0.827) and Pb-based paint ((207)Pb/(206) Pb = 0.867). Nearly 70% of the samples analyzed can be isotopically described by mixing these two end members, with Pb-based paint contributing 40 to 80% of the mass balance. A simplified urban human exposure model suggests that the consumption of produce from urban gardens is equivalent to approximately 10 to 25% of children's daily exposure from tap water. Furthermore, analysis of over 60 samples of plant tissue from the four test species suggests that in these urban gardens unamended phytoremediation is an inadequate tool for decreasing soil Pb.