growing pains: a conceptual framework for considering integrated assessments

Policy concerns related to the environment have grown in the past decadesfrom relatively local and well-defined problems to increasingly complex andglobal issues. With this has grown the need to develop the capacity tointegrate, reconcile, organize, and communicate knowledge across scientificdisciplines, as well as to make this knowledge available and useful for policy-makers. One response to this has been the growing field ofIntegrated Assessment (IA). Our goal in this paper is to reflect on the purpose and valueof IA in principle. We propose a conceptual framework within whichindividual IA studies, and the practice of IA as a whole, can be placed andevaluated. The framework addresses both the integrative nature of IAs andtheir policy usefulness, including a self-awareness of their role and capabilities. We illustrate several stages in the evolution of integrated assessments: fromlinear to more complex chains of analysis, from non-adaptive to perfectly-adaptive to realistically-adaptive agents, from simplistic to sophisticated to pluralistic consideration of alternative underlying development paths, from strictly quantitative to quantitative and qualitative analyses, from science-driven to policy-driven, and from analyses that dictate to users to those that involvethose users in the actual assessment process. By so doing, we argue for botha richer form and process of IA. Ultimately, we feel that it may also benecessary to reconsider the framing of the questions that IAs have been askedto address, perhaps leading to the consideration of the use of other forms of mandated science.     

Integrated assessment modeling of global climate change: Transparent rational tool for policy making or opaque screen hiding value‐laden assumptions?

One of the principal tools used in the integrated assessment (IA) of environmental science, technology and policy problems is integrated assessment models (IAMs). These models are often comprised of many sub‐models adopted from a wide range of disciplines. A multi‐disciplinary tool kit is presented, from which three decades of IA of global climatic change issues have tapped. A distinction between multi‐ and inter‐disciplinarity is suggested, hinging on the synergistic value added for the latter. Then, a hierarchy of five generations of IAMs are proposed, roughly paralleling the development of IAMs as they incorporated more components of the coupled physical, biological and social scientific disciplines needed to address a “real world” problem like climatic change impacts and policy responses. The need for validation protocols and exploration of predictability limits is also emphasized. The critical importance of making value‐laden assumptions highly transparent in both natural and social scientific components of IAMs is stressed, and it is suggested that incorporating decision‐makers and other citizens into the early design of IAMs can help with this process. The latter could also help IA modelers to offer a large range of value‐containing options via menu driven designs. Examples of specific topics which are often not well understood by potential users of IAMs are briefly surveyed, and it is argued that if the assumptions and values embedded in such topics are not made explicit to users, then IAMs, rather than helping to provide us with refined insights, could well hide value‐laden assumptions or conditions. In particular, issues of induced technological change, timing of carbon abatement, transients, surprises, adaptation, subjective probability assessment and the use of contemporary spatial variations as a substitute for time evolving changes (what I label “ergodic economics”) are given as examples of problematic issues that IA modelers need to explicitly address and make transparent if IAMs are to enlighten more than they conceal. A checklist of six practices which might help to increase transparency of IAMs is offered in the conclusions. Incorporation of decision‐makers into all stages of development and use of IAMs is re‐emphasized as one safeguard against misunderstanding or misrepresentation of IAM results by lay audiences.     

Sustainable building assessment tool for project decision makers and its development process

The primary purpose of Sustainable Building Assessment (SBA) tools is for behavioral changes in public building practice. In the Web 3.0 era, even non-experts may have the capacity to select and use Information & Communication Technology (ICT) tools to solve complicated problems in sustainable building decision making without any expert help. It is clear that the R&D of these tools which directly target project decision makers is a significant project for researchers and policy makers who are tasked with the challenge of changing individual building practice for regional sustainability. The purpose of the study is to suggest a tool and its development process for sustainable building assessment by project decision makers, especially targeting non-expert groups. This study defines an SBA tool for project decision makers based on a typology and suggests a “3-layer development process framework”. For the theoretical Background, we integrate interdisciplinary methods and principles such as cognitive problem-solving and sustainable building delivery, including long-term community benefits in a region and an information system development process. This framework is based on Boehem's spiral model for information system development processes and especially emphasizes the first cycle to develop a core set of indicators fit for the non-expert user's problem solving process. This presents an iterative and gradual process with the aim of approaching the tool type from passive tools such as checklists and guidelines, to interactive software, especially interactive DSS (Decision Support Systems) online ICT platforms. The development process is comprised of 8 stages: This includes the use of mixed-method sequential design, including interviews, workshops, the Delphi survey technique, FD-AHP weight analysis, and scenario analysis. In addition, the study presents a case study of the application of the first cycle to develop a core set of indicators and discusses its effectiveness. This study may help researchers by providing a clear and effective method to understand interdisciplinary approaches to develop appropriate tools for sustainable building practice in a regional context.     

Exploring the use of computer models in participatory integrated assessment – experiences and recommendations for further steps

Integrated assessment (IA) can be defined as a structured process of dealing with complex issues, using knowledge from various scientific disciplines and/or stakeholders, such that integrated insights are made available to decision makers (J. Rotmans, Enviromental Modelling and Assessment 3 (1998) 155). There is a growing recognition that the participation of stakeholders is a vital element of IA. However, only little is known about methodological requirements for such participatory IA and possible insights to be gained from these approaches. This paper summarizes some of the experiences gathered in the ULYSSES project, which aims at developing procedures that are able to bridge the gap between environmental science and democratic policy making for the issue of climate change. The discussion is based on a total of 52 IA focus groups with citizens, run in six European and one US city. In these groups, different computer models were used, ranging from complex and dynamic global models to simple accounting tools. The analysis in this paper focuses on the role of the computer models. The findings suggest that the computer models were successful at conveying to participants the temporal and spatial scale of climate change, the complexity of the system and the uncertainties in our understanding of it. However, most participants felt that the computer models were less instrumental for the exploration of policy options. Furthermore, both research teams and participants agreed that despite considerable efforts, most models were not sufficiently user-friendly and transparent for being accessed in an IA focus group. With that background, some methodological conclusions are drawn about the inclusion of the computer models in the deliberation process. Furthermore, some suggestions are made about how given models should be adapted and new ones developed in order to be helpful for participatory IA. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Multilevel and multi-user sustainability assessment of farming systems

Sustainability assessment is needed to build sustainable farming systems. A broad range of sustainability concepts, methodologies and applications already exists. They differ in level, focus, orientation, measurement, scale, presentation and intended end-users. In this paper we illustrate that a smart combination of existing methods with different levels of application can make sustainability assessment more profound, and that it can broaden the insights of different end-user groups. An overview of sustainability assessment tools on different levels and for different end-users shows the complementarities and the opportunities of using different methods. In a case-study, a combination of the sustainable value approach (SVA) and MOTIFS is used to perform a sustainability evaluation of farming systems in Flanders. SVA is used to evaluate sustainability at sector level, and is especially useful to support policy makers, while MOTIFS is used to support and guide farmers towards sustainability at farm level. The combined use of the two methods with complementary goals can widen the insights of both farmers and policy makers, without losing the particularities of the different approaches. To stimulate and support further research and applications, we propose guidelines for multilevel and multi-user sustainability assessments.     

Land User Participation in Developing a Computerised Decision Support System for Combating Desertification

Combating desertification in natural rangelands has recently become a priority in large parts of southern Africa. Rangeland managers, farmers, scientists, conservationists and land users have been applying a variety of restoration technologies to address this problem. Bush encroachment, as part of the desertification process, involves the natural replacement of the herbaceous plant cover by undesirable problem woody species. The active and passive restoration technologies that are applied, are mainly based on indigenous knowledge and include the chemical, mechanical or manual reclamation of unproductive rangelands, as well as the combating of woody and alien species encroachment. Indigenous practices and knowledge play a major role in the effectiveness and success rate of these technologies. This project faces the challenge of bringing together both local and scientific knowledge in a single user-friendly, computerised Decision Support System (DSS) which is directly accessible by land users to support them in the process of decision making, concerning the combating of desertification. Case studies from central and northern Namibia were used to combine qualitative and quantitative data to develop this Decision Support System. The DSS currently consists of two databases and an expert system, which evaluates the results of land users’ management practices, and provides easily accessible information and advice for participants in the system, based on the incorporated data. The DSS is also linked to national and international web sites and databases to offer a wider range of information on technologies concerning agricultural and conservation practices.     

Risk management and integrated assessment

Integrated Assessment (IA) is the pursuit of a research program generated by the limitations of traditional forms of risk management. This claim can be justified by the following argument. Over the last decades, analysts and practitioners have brought to maturity a large array of tools for risk management. Most of them rely on combining judgments of utility with judgments of probability. This is the approach of the Rational Actor Paradigm (RAP). With many environmental problems, however, RAP‐based tools have run into considerable practical and theoretical difficulties. In response to these difficulties, a series of alternative approaches to practical risk management and to the theoretical understanding of risk have been elaborated. They try to embed the rational choices of individual actors studied by RAP into a broader framework of social rationality. This task can be approached by distinguishing situations where an actor holds unambiguous judgments of preference and probability from situations characterized by ambivalent judgments. RAP can handle the former, but not the latter. Problems whose management requires a combination of widely differing scientific disciplines are especially likely to involve ambivalent judgments of probability. The study of such problems constitutes the research program of integrated assessment. It involves three main tasks: developing IA models which can represent ambivalent expectations and evaluations, developing IA models which use such representations to study non‐marginal changes of social systems, and developing procedures of participatory IA which enable researchers to engage in an iterative exchange with various stakeholders. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Developing transboundary river basin monitoring programmes using the DPSIR indicator framework

Policymakers are often dissatisfied by the lack of what they consider useful information to support water management. Analysis of this 'water information gap' shows that this is caused by a lack of proper communication between information users and information producers. To improve this communication the process of specification of information needs has been structured. Earlier experiences showed that this not only entailed developing a structure to manage the process, but also developing a structure to guide the breakdown of policy objectives into information needs. Such a structure to organise the problem supports policy makers and monitoring specialists in their communication. This paper describes three pilot projects where the DPSIR indicator framework was used to organise the problem. It is concluded that the DPSIR framework is useful for improving the communication between information users and information producers and is helpful in breaking down policy objectives into information needs in a structured way. The structured approach in this way assists in narrowing the water information gap. Use of the DPSIR framework however leads to a bias towards water management problems and does not provide for all the relevant information needs.     

Community participation in Health Impact Assessment. A scoping review of the literature

Currently, the engagement of local communities in Health Impact Assessment is becoming more and more important. A scoping review was performed to take stock of visions, methods and experiences in this field.A combined Scopus and Medline search yielded 100 articles in scientific journals. The final selection consisted of 43 papers, including case studies, evaluation studies, reviews, and opinion papers. After analysis, consultation of four experts was performed to check preliminary study outcomes. A grey literature web search was performed to check and complement the results.Results show that community participation is generally considered a core element in HIA. Views as expressed in the papers concern, firstly, the need for and value of local knowledge, secondly, the adherence to or application of democratic values and, thirdly, empowerment of communities. Three categories of methods are used in relation to community participation, often in combination: methods to facilitate knowledge elicitation, to ensure the inclusion of communities in the HIA process, and to build community capacity to participate in policy development. However, the theoretical or practical underpinning of the choice for specific methods is mostly not presented. The experiences described in the papers mainly focus on the access to local knowledge and its usability as a source of evidence in the HIA process. Described effects of community participation are (improved) relations between communities and local agencies, policy makers and professionals and the empowerment of community members. Although these effects are ascribed to community participation, many papers do not provide support for this conclusion beyond the retrospective perception of participants. Expert consultation and additional analysis of the grey literature supported the results derived from the scientific literature and provided more in-depth knowledge. In the grey literature theoretical frameworks, methods and tools for community participation in HIA were more extensively reported as compared to the scientific literature.We conclude that the visions, methods and experiences concerning community participation show that a participative approach may contribute to better, context specific knowledge. It appears that participative HIA has health promotion potential as it helps develop responsive policies.To accomplish this, HIA should, firstly, be better embedded in broader health promotion programmes. Secondly, the methods and approaches for community participation applied in HIA should be theory-informed and well described. The grey literature offers entry points. Finally, more robust and systematic evaluation and research is needed to assess the impact of HIAs on communities and policies.     

Landscape indicators for rural development policies. Application of a core set in the case study of Piedmont Region

The rural landscape has long been eroded by urban and infrastructural development that has altered the system of relationships between town and country. These phenomena, including agriculture intensification, have radically changed the rural landscape, especially in terms of land use, visual and ecological diversity and biocultural heterogeneity. However, agriculture is gradually changing, moving from an exclusively productive model (highly specialised) to one more sensitive to landscape issues. In particular, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has many environmental aims and, theoretically, its financial tools might be used for landscape purposes. However, the CAP does not have a “landscape dimension” and does not include assessment and integration phases with landscape policies. These issues that have arisen not only appear to be influenced by a lack of clarity on the differences between environmental and landscape orientations, but also by a shortage of indicators to identify and assess the landscape dimension in the Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework. Here, we attempt to show that a “landscaped role” for the CAP is possible, based upon identifying the main dimensions involved, as well as verifying the effects and induced changes of rural policies. In this scenario, this paper highlights the development and testing of landscape key indicators to support the decision-makers of rural policies. The main result, in an Italian pilot case, reveals direct and indirect relations between Rural Development Programmes (RDPs) and landscape, not only in terms of negative effects, but also in relation to the real contribution of CAP towards preserving farmland and enhancing the rural landscape. Finally, these tools may also be useful in different timescales and different situations, including the improvement of current RDP spatial targeting which often seems to be ineffective compared to the requirements of landscape character areas.     

Opening new institutional spaces for grappling with uncertainty: A constructivist perspective

In the context of an increasing reliance on predictive computer simulation models to calculate potential project impacts, it has become common practice in impact assessment (IA) to call on proponents to disclose uncertainties in assumptions and conclusions assembled in support of a development project. Understandably, it is assumed that such disclosures lead to greater scrutiny and better policy decisions. This paper questions this assumption. Drawing on constructivist theories of knowledge and an analysis of the role of narratives in managing uncertainty, I argue that the disclosure of uncertainty can obscure as much as it reveals about the impacts of a development project. It is proposed that the opening up of institutional spaces that can facilitate the negotiation and deliberation of foundational assumptions and parameters that feed into predictive models could engender greater legitimacy and credibility for IA outcomes.     

Just so that we don't miss it: A critical view on the meaning of decision in IA

Impact assessment (IA) tools are targeted at decisions and decision-making in theory and in practice. Often described as decision support instruments, most IA are driven by the grand purpose of providing for informed decision-making. In practice this often means IA tends to be more concerned with the information to be provided than with the outcomes of IA and its relevance to the decision(s), and decision-makers(s) to which it should be targeted. Decisions and decision-making are, however, understood in many different ways, and actors involved in decision-making may therefore act widely different with diverse results. Therefore, distinguishing which decisions, and to which decision-makers IA are targeted at, is arguably indispensable to enhance IA effectiveness. Based on an overview of decision-making theory, this paper searches for the understanding of decision and decision-making in IA by exploring how it is conceived in guidance documents. Guidance documents have a prominent role in defining IA practice, and the explicit and implicit recognition of decision-making in guidance is therefore relevant to investigate in order to understand how IA relates to decision-making. With a focus on guidance documents related to the European Union Directive on environmental assessment of plans and programmes, this paper scrutinises four guidance documents and discusses the implications of the identified understandings of decision-making to the practice of IA. The key finding of this paper is that legislation-oriented guidance documents appear to miss to reflect the different forms of decision-making, and primarily depicts decision-making as a single, often timeless and faceless moment. The implications for practice are discussed including reflection on how to describe the nature of decision-making in guidance documents.     

Linking Water Science to Policy: Results from a Series of National Workshops on Water

To ensure science better informs the decision-making process, researchers and policy/program managers need to understand and respect each other's way of working, culture and operational timelines. However, there is little practical guidance on how this should be done and even less documented experience with specific mechanisms that better link these two groups. The published literature on information transfer has largely emphasized the dissemination of standard packages of information to ill-defined constituencies whose needs for scientific information are not well understood. Environment Canada's National Water Research Institute, on behalf of the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, led a series of “Linking Water Science to Policy Workshops” as one such mechanism by which recent science could be delivered to practitioners, and practitioners could identify their research needs to scientists and research managers. There is a pressing need to explore and share experiences using creative mechanisms for sustained dialogue and networking between scientists and policy and program managers. The lessons learned from the workshop series and the need for science to continually inform the decision-making process has particular relevance for Canada's Ecosystem Initiatives given their integrated, place-based focus on long-term restoration and protection, and the challenge of continually changing ecosystems.The Canadian Crown reserves the right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright.     

A framework to assess food security in regional strategic environmental assessment

Today, food security is central to global social policy and sustainable development agendas; yet food security considerations have not yet widely penetrated environmental impact assessment (IA) practice. This paper investigates criteria and approaches to food security assessment that align with Regional Strategic Environment Assessment (RSEA); a form of IA commonly used to influence natural resource development programmes. The research is based on interviews with seven international food security experts about how food security assessment can be performed at a regional scale, responsive to the impacts of natural resource developments. Analysis of data reveals essential components, key considerations, and procedural requirements for food security assessment within RSEA processes. Based on the evidence, we conclude that food security assessment in RSEA cannot be approached in a piecemeal fashion. To be successful: it must include holistic and comprehensive consideration of all four food security dimensions; communities should be profiled in early stages of the assessment to characterize the regional food system and define its importance to food security; vulnerable populations should be prioritized in the assessment; and it is critical to incorporate meaningful and influential opportunities for public participation. Finally, the recommended approach to analyze food security in RSEA is ‘system analysis’ which includes examination of food system pathways. A conceptual and methodological framework to assess food security in RSEA is presented, intended as a guide for practitioners wishing to incorporate food security into RSEA and RSEA-like initiatives.     

A review of uncertainty research in impact assessment

This paper examines uncertainty research in Impact Assessment (IA) and the focus of attention of the IA scholarly literature. We do so by first exploring ‘outside’ the IA literature, identifying three main themes of uncertainty research, and then apply these themes to examine the focus of scholarly research on uncertainty ‘inside’ IA. Based on a search of the database Scopus, we identified 134 journal papers published between 1970 and 2013 that address uncertainty in IA, 75% of which were published since 2005. We found that 90% of IA research addressing uncertainty focused on uncertainty in the practice of IA, including uncertainty in impact predictions, models and managing environmental impacts. Notwithstanding early guidance on uncertainty treatment in IA from the 1980s, we found no common, underlying conceptual framework that was guiding research on uncertainty in IA practice. Considerably less attention, only 9% of papers, focused on uncertainty communication, disclosure and decision-making under uncertain conditions, the majority of which focused on the need to disclose uncertainties as opposed to providing guidance on how to do so and effectively use that information to inform decisions. Finally, research focused on theory building for explaining human behavior with respect to uncertainty avoidance constituted only 1% of the IA published literature. We suggest the need for further conceptual framework development for researchers focused on identifying and addressing uncertainty in IA practice; the need for guidance on how best to communicate uncertainties in practice, versus criticizing practitioners for not doing so; research that explores how best to interpret and use disclosures about uncertainty when making decisions about project approvals, and the implications of doing so; and academic theory building and exploring the utility of existing theories to better understand and explain uncertainty avoidance behavior in IA.     

The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.     

Understanding water quality trading: the basics

The United States has entered a new era in water quality protection: the era of market-based incentives. In January 2003, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued its National Water Quality Trading Policy (Trading Policy) (USEPA, 2003). This action has generated greater interest in water quality trading and has prompted EPA to develop tools and training to assist interested parties in understanding what water quality trading is and what constitutes a successful trading program.     

Assessing the urban carbon footprint: An overview

All cities present environmental sustainability issues, above all regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and specifically carbon dioxide (CO₂), that directly affect climate change. Consequently, it is very important to quantify and report their Carbon Footprint (CF) for implementing national and international policies/strategies aimed at mitigating and adapting these concerns. The Urban Carbon Footprint (UCF), indeed, has been recognized as the more valuable choice to inform, specifically, decision makers about city environmental sustainability. Several accounting systems and inventory methods have been taken into account to perform UCF, highlighting the complexity of the topic and generating very often confusion among users.In this context, the authors aim to summarize what has been done and what is going on with UCFs, trying to classify them according to some principal dimensions. Thus, they divide UFCs in two main categories namely: “spatial” or “direct”, with a limited amount of data requested, and “economic” or “life cycle based”, more or less data inclusive according to the accounting systems considered. Furthermore, they observe that there is not a “global agreed-upon protocol” yet, neither is there a specific model shared among researchers, even if some steps have been made towards this direction (Relative Carbon Footprint - RCF, Publicly Available Specification – PAS 2070 and Global Protocol for Community scale - GPC). Consequently, it is necessary to complete and standardize, in the short term, the accounting and reporting frameworks, in order to compare different UCFs for adopting shared climate strategies and actions at global level.     

Current legal regime for environmental impact assessment in areas beyond national jurisdiction and its future approaches

In 2004, the United Nations launched an Ad Hoc Open-ended Informal Working Group to study issues relating to the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction. Since then, the topic of governing marine areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ) has been widely discussed by politicians, policy makers and scholars. As one of management tools to protect marine biodiversity in ABNJ, environmental impact assessment (EIA) has been widely recognized and accepted by the international community, however, the biggest challenge is how to effectively implement the EIA regime in ABNJ. This paper explores the impacts of anthropogenic activities in ABNJ on marine ecosystems, reviews the existing legal regime for EIA in ABNJ and discusses possible measures to strengthen the implementation of EIA in ABNJ.     

Is Globalization Detrimental to CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emissions in Japan? New Threshold Analysis

Using annual data from 1970 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of globalization on CO₂ emissions in Japan while accounting for economic growth and energy consumption as potential determinants of carbon emissions. The structural breaks and asymmetries arising due to policy shifts require attention, and hence, an asymmetric threshold version of the ARDL model is utilized. The results show the presence of threshold asymmetric cointegration between variables. Threshold-based positive and negative shocks arising from globalization increase carbon emissions, while the impact of the latter is more profound. Energy consumption (economic growth) also has a significant positive effect on carbon emissions. Globalization, economic growth, and energy consumption significantly increase carbon emissions in the short run. We suggest that policy makers in Japan consider globalization and energy consumption as policy tools in formulating their policies regarding protecting sustainable environmental quality in the long run. Otherwise, the Japanese economy may continue to face environmental consequences such as undesirable climate change and massive warming at the micro and macro levels as a result of potential shocks arising from globalization and energy consumption.