An approach for integrating economic impact analysis into the evaluation of potential marine protected area sites

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are one tool that can be used in the comprehensive management of human activities in areas of the ocean. Although researchers have supported using MPAs as an ecosystem management tool, scientific research on MPAs in areas other than fisheries and fisheries management is limited. This paper presents a model for designing marine protected areas that protect important components of the ecosystem while minimizing economic impacts on local communities. This model combines conservation principles derived specifically for the marine environment with economic impact assessment. This integrated model allows for consideration of both fishery and non-fishery resources and activities such as shipping and recreational boating. An illustration of the model is presented that estimates the total economic impacts on Massachusetts' coastal counties of restricting fishing and shipping at certain sites in an area in the southern Gulf of Maine. The results suggest that the economic impacts on the region would differ according to the site in which shipping and fishing were restricted. Restricting activities in certain sites may have considerable impacts on local communities. The use of the model for evaluating and comparing potential MPA sites is illustrated through an evaluation of three different policy scenarios. The scenarios demonstrate how the model could be used to achieve different goals for managing resources in the region: protecting important components of the ecosystem, minimizing economic impacts on the local region, or a combination of the two.     

The potential contribution of sustainable waste management to energy use and greenhouse gas emission reduction in the Netherlands

Future limitations on the availability of selected resources stress the need for increased material efficiency. In addition, in a climate-constrained world the impact of resource use on greenhouse gas emissions should be minimized. Waste management is key to achieve sustainable resource management. Ways to use resources more efficiently include prevention of waste, reuse of products and materials, and recycling of materials, while incineration and anaerobic digestion may recover part of the embodied energy of materials. This study used iWaste, a simulation model, to investigate the extent to which savings in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions can be achieved in the Netherlands through recycling of waste streams versus waste incineration, and to assess the extent to which this potential is reflected in the LAP2 (currently initiated policy). Three waste streams (i.e. household waste, bulky household waste, and construction and demolition waste) and three scenarios compare current policy to scenarios that focus on high-quality recycling (Recycling+) or incineration with increased efficiency (Incineration+). The results show that aiming for more and high-quality recycling can result in emission reductions of 2.3 MtCO₂ annually in the Netherlands compared to the reference situation in 2008. The main contributors to this reduction potential are found in optimizing the recycling of plastics (PET, PE and PP), textiles, paper, and organic waste. A scenario assuming a higher energy conversion efficiency of the incinerator treating the residual waste stream, achieves an emission reduction equivalent to only one third (0.7 MtCO₂/year) of the reduction achieved in the Recycling+ scenario. Furthermore, the results of the study show that currently initiated policy only partially realizes the full potential identified. A focus on highest quality use of recovered materials is essential to realize the full potential energy and CO₂ emission reduction identified for the Netherlands. Detailed economic and technical analyses of high quality recycling are recommended to further evaluate viable integrated waste management policies.     

Transitions of municipal solid waste management. Part I: Scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal

All municipal solid waste (MSW) management systems—even “high quality systems” or those employing “best practices”—face multiple challenges, e.g., decreasing prices of secondary raw materials recovered by municipalities, increasing complexity of waste composition, technological lock-ins. Policy-making involves translating these challenges into goals that are generic in nature and implementing them on MSW fractions thanks to tailor-made policy tools, e.g., anticipated disposal fees. Anticipating the impacts of policies can provide valuable insights into the adequacy of policy tools with respect to economic, political, and social contexts of MSW. The goal of this paper is to construct consistent, future scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal based on literature and stakeholder knowledge, including the allocation of waste to different disposal routes. These scenarios are future states to which the current system could transit to due to alternative policies in line with waste policy goals and varying societal constraints (e.g., commodity prices). Results of scenario construction show that policy has a limited effect on waste glass-packaging disposal because of economic constraints, preventing goals from consistently being achieved. For instance, increases in energy prices can impede a policy favoring recycling over downcycling to foam glass, an energy-saving product. The procedure applied to construct possible scenarios suits well the ambition of considering uncertain future developments affecting MSW management as it integrates qualitative and quantitative knowledge of various sources and disciplines.     

The cost of crop damage caused by ozone air pollution from motor vehicles

The effects of ozone air pollution on the agricultural sector are an important environmental challenge facing policy makers. Most studies of the economic impact of air pollution on agriculture have found that a 25% reduction in ambient ozone would provide benefits of at least $1–2 billion annually in the United States. This paper extends existing research by estimating the benefits of a reduction in emissions from a major source of ozone formation: motor-vehicle emissions. An agricultural production model is combined with an analysis of motor-vehicle emissions and air quality to estimate the impacts of emissions from six different motor-vehicle classes, at both the regional and national level. The benefits to the agricultural sector from completely eliminating ozone precursor emissions from motor vehicles ranges between $3·5 and $6·1 billion annually.     

Transitions of municipal solid waste management. Part II: Hybrid life cycle assessment of Swiss glass-packaging disposal

In policy support of municipal solid waste (MSW) management, life cycle assessment (LCA) can serve to compare the environmental or economic impacts of two or more options for waste processing. The scope of waste management LCAs generally focuses less attention on future developments, e.g., where will recycling take place, and more on the environmental performance of prototypes, e.g., the incineration of all waste compared to recycling. To provide more robust support for Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal, scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging are assessed from a life cycle perspective. The scenarios consist in schemes for the disposal of the total amount of Swiss waste glass-packaging, i.e., different combinations of recycling and downcycling in Switzerland or abroad developed in Part I, Meylan et al. (2013). In this article (Part II), the disposal schemes are assessed with respect to eco-efficiency, an indicator that combines total environmental impacts and gross value added in Switzerland. Results show that no policy alternative guarantees environmental impact reductions and gross value added gains under all developments of exogenous constraints. Downcycling to foam glass in Switzerland is not only an environmentally sound disposal option, but it also buffers gross value added losses in case domestic recycling (and thus glass-packaging production in Switzerland) ceases in the future. The substitution of products based on raw materials other than Swiss cullet is the main responsible for change in environmental and economic impacts. Hence, an eco-efficiency maximizing policy should consider the products of disposal schemes. The combination of scenario analysis and eco-efficiency assessment as presented in this paper can be applied to other contexts (i.e., countries, waste fractions).     

Environmental and economic analysis of management systems for biodegradable waste

The management system for solid and liquid organic waste affects the environment and surrounding technical systems in several ways. In order to decrease the environmental impact and resource use, biological waste treatment and alternative solutions for sewage treatment are often advocated. These alternatives include increased agricultural use of waste residuals. To analyse whether such proposed systems indicate improvements for the environment and its sustainability, systems analysis is a useful method. The changes in environmental impact and resource use is not only a result of changes in waste treatment methods, but also largely a result of changes in surrounding systems (energy and agriculture) caused by changes in waste management practices. In order to perform a systems analysis, a substance-flow simulation model, the organic waste research model (ORWARE), has been used. The results are evaluated by using methodology from life cycle assessment (LCA). An economic analysis was also performed on three of the studied scenarios. The management system for solid organic waste and sewage in the municipality of Uppsala, Sweden, was studied. Three scenarios for different treatments of solid waste were analysed: incineration with heat recovery, composting, and anaerobic digestion. These three scenarios included conventional sewage treatment. A fourth scenario reviewed was anaerobic digestion of solid waste, using urine-separating toilets and separate handling of the urine fraction. The results are only valid for the case study and under the assumptions made. In this case study anaerobic digestion result in the lowest environmental impact of all the solid waste management systems, but is costly. Economically, incineration with heat recovery is the cheapest way to treat solid waste. Composting gives environmental advantages compared to incineration methods, without significantly increased costs. Urine separation, which may be implemented together with any solid waste treatment, has great advantages, particularly in its low impact on the environment. However, there is a large increase in acidification.     

An analysis of future platinum resources,emissions and waste streams using a system dynamic model of its intentional and non-intentional flows and stocks

Platinum is increasingly used intentionally and non-intentionally in several applications. This has raised the concern about its future resources, emissions and losses during its life cycle. On the one hand, increasing platinum emissions might affect human health. On the other hand, the accumulated platinum in mineral waste, soil, landfill sites and construction materials as a result of the emissions, losses and the utilization of secondary materials can be seen as potential resources for platinum. This paper is aimed at (1) analyzing the long term impacts of the use of platinum intentionally and non-intentionally on its future demand and supply, release to the environment and accumulation in mineral waste, soil, landfill sites and construction materials and (2) quantifying the amount of platinum in secondary materials that would be available for platinum future supply. The analysis is carried out on a global level using a system dynamic model of platinum intentional and non-intentional flows and stocks. The analysis is based on four scenarios for the introduction of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). The results show that platinum demand is increasing overtime in all scenarios at different rates and its identified resources are expected to deplete before the end of the century with or without the introduction of FCVs. The release of platinum to the environment and the accumulation in soil are expected to decrease when conventional ICE vehicles is replaced by FCVs. The amount of platinum accumulated in mineral waste, soil, landfill sites and construction materials by the time platinum is depleted are more than double its identified resources and would be potential resources for platinum that are available in different parts of the world. The methodology presented in this paper can be used in the assessment of other technologies and other metals.     

Life cycle assessment analysis of active and passive acid mine drainage treatment technologies

Acid mine drainage (AMD), resulting from open-cast coal mining, is currently one of the largest environmental challenges facing the mining industry. In this study, a life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted to evaluate the environmental impacts associated with the construction, operation and maintenance of different AMD treatment options typically employed. LCA is a well-reported tool but is not documented for AMD treatment systems despite their ubiquitous implementation worldwide. This study conducted detailed LCA analysis for various passive and active AMD treatment approaches implemented or considered at a major coal mine in New Zealand using a comparative functional unit of kg acidity removed per day for each treatment option. Eight treatment scenarios were assessed including active limestone and hydrated lime treatments, and compared to passive treatments using limestone and waste materials such as mussel shells. Both midpoint and endpoint LCA impact categories were assessed. Generally, the active treatment scenarios demonstrated greater LCA impacts compared to an equivalent level of treatment for the passive treatment approaches. Lime slaking had the greatest LCA impacts, while passive treatment approaches incurred consistently less impacts except for one passive treatment with a purchased energy scenario. A 50% reduction in transportation distances resulted in the lowest LCA impacts for all scenarios. This study highlights the importance of evaluating the environmental and social impacts of AMD treatment for the mining industry.     

Life cycle assessment of the production and use of polypropylene tree shelters

A detailed Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has been conducted for the manufacture, use and disposal of polypropylene tree shelters, which are used to protect young seedlings in the first few years of growth. The LCA was conducted using Simapro software, the Ecoinvent database and ReCiPe assessment methodology. Detailed information on materials, manufacturing, packaging and distribution of shelters was obtained from Tubex Ltd. in South Wales, UK. Various scenarios based on different forest establishment methods, with or without tree shelters were derived and analysed using data from published literature and independent sources. The scenarios included commercial forestry in northern temperate conditions, amenity forest establishment in temperate conditions, and forest establishment in semi-arid conditions. For commercial forestry, a reduction in required seedling production and planting as well as additional time-averaged wood production led to significant benefits with tree shelters, both compared to unprotected and fenced cases. For the amenity forest scenarios, tree shelter use had a net environmental impact, while for semi-arid forestry, the benefits of reduction in water use outweighed shelter production impacts. The current practice of in-situ degradation was compared to collection and disposal and it was found that in-situ degradation was slightly preferable in terms of overall environmental impact. Use of biopolymer-based shelters would improve the environmental performance slightly.     

Modeling the Influence of Dynamic Zoning of Forest Harvesting on Ecological Succession in a Northern Hardwoods Landscape

Dynamic zoning (systematic alteration in the spatial and temporal allocation of even-aged forest management practices) has been proposed as a means to change the spatial pattern of timber harvest across a landscape to maximize forest interior habitat while holding timber harvest levels constant. Simulation studies have established that dynamic zoning strategies produce larger tracts of interior, closed canopy forest, thus increasing the value of these landscapes for interior-dependent wildlife. We used the simulation model LANDIS to examine how the implementation of a dynamic zoning strategy would change trajectories of ecological succession in the Great Divide Ranger District of the Chequamegon–Nicolet National Forest in northern Wisconsin over 500 years. The components of dynamic zoning strategies (number of zones in a scenario and the length of the hiatus between successive entries into zones) and their interaction had highly significant impacts on patterns of forest succession. Dynamic zoning scenarios with more zones and shorter hiatus lengths increased the average amount of the forest dominated by early successional aspen (Populus sp.). Dynamic zoning scenarios with two zones produced more late successional mature northern hardwoods than scenarios with four zones. Dynamic zoning scenarios with very short (30 years) or very long (120 years) hiatus lengths resulted in more late successional mature northern hardwoods than scenarios with intermediate hiatus lengths (60 and 90 years). However, none of the dynamic scenarios produced as much late successional mature northern hardwoods as the static alternative. Furthermore, the amounts of all habitat types in all dynamic zoning scenarios fluctuated greatly in time and space relative to static alternatives, which could negatively impact wildlife species that require a stable amount of habitat above some minimum critical threshold. Indeed, implementing dynamic zoning scenarios of different designs would have both positive and negative effects on wildlife species and for other objectives of forest management.     

Municipal solid waste production and composition in Finland—Changes in the period 1960–2002 and prospects until 2020

Waste reduction was recognised as the main goal of waste management policy in the EU in the 1990s. Although knowledge of past waste generation is essential for effective waste reduction policy there are no comprehensive statistics on the past development of municipal solid waste (MSW) production. MSW management is currently under turmoil in many EU countries as the requirements of the EC landfill directive (1999/31/EC) are set into force. In this study, the production and composition of MSW in Finland between 1960 and 2002 is presented using historical data. The impact of population, affluence and technology on MSW production are analysed using the IPAT equation and three scenarios are constructed until year 2020. The results are compared with national future targets on MSW production. Production of MSW increased in Finland until 1990, declined to year 1997, increased to 2000 and then declined again. The share of organic and plastic waste increased over the study period while the share of paper and cardboard declined. The results suggest that so far national targets on MSW reduction have been set fairly low. Moreover, our scenarios depict a wide range of future MSW production, even though the time horizon is not longer than 15 years into the future. In order to narrow this range, continuous improvement of the statistics of MSW is essential.     

Assessment of the coherence of the Swiss waste wood management

Waste wood recovery by thermal treatment with energy recovery or by recycling allows the substitution and conservation of primary resources. Swiss government notes the potential presence of tensions between policies which simultaneously encourage the cascade use of wood, the recycling or the energy recovery by thermal treatment of waste wood. The aim of the present research is to assess the coherence of waste wood management in Switzerland by a quantitative and qualitative approach. First, a material flow analysis allows to model the wood resources and waste wood metabolism over one century. The simulation results of various scenarios of waste wood management establish that the additional impacts of the immediate thermal treatment are less significant for the reduction of CO₂eq emissions but more significant for the energy production than its cascade treatments on Swiss territory. Secondly, a documentary analysis examines the determinants of the current waste wood treatments prevailing in Switzerland. Thus, the causes of the strong presence on Swiss territory of the sector of thermal treatment, the export of almost half of waste wood generated and the sub-exploitation of Swiss forest act as barriers or drivers that result in introducing a crowding-out effect where no amount of waste wood is available for recycling in Switzerland. The comparison of the results of the two approaches leads to the conclusion that the current waste wood management is coherent in relation to the various goals of the Swiss federal policies but the waste wood potential for energy production is not fully exploited. The recommendations on the waste wood management and the possibilities to use the model for other case studies are given in the conclusion.     

Assessment of the greenhouse effect impact of technologies used for energy recovery from municipal waste: A case for England

Waste management activities contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions approximately by 4%. In particular the disposal of waste in landfills generates methane that has high global warming potential. Effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is important and could provide environmental benefits and sustainable development, as well as reduce adverse impacts on public health. The European and UK waste policy force sustainable waste management and especially diversion from landfill, through reduction, reuse, recycling and composting, and recovery of value from waste. Energy from waste is a waste management option that could provide diversion from landfill and at the same time save a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions, since it recovers energy from waste which usually replaces an equivalent amount of energy generated from fossil fuels. Energy from waste is a wide definition and includes technologies such as incineration of waste with energy recovery, or combustion of waste-derived fuels for energy production or advanced thermal treatment of waste with technologies such as gasification and pyrolysis, with energy recovery. The present study assessed the greenhouse gas emission impacts of three technologies that could be used for the treatment of Municipal Solid Waste in order to recover energy from it. These technologies are Mass Burn Incineration with energy recovery, Mechanical Biological Treatment via bio-drying and Mechanical Heat Treatment, which is a relatively new and uninvestigated method, compared to the other two. Mechanical Biological Treatment and Mechanical Heat Treatment can turn Municipal Solid Waste into Solid Recovered Fuel that could be combusted for energy production or replace other fuels in various industrial processes. The analysis showed that performance of these two technologies depends strongly on the final use of the produced fuel and they could produce GHG emissions savings only when there is end market for the fuel. On the other hand Mass Burn Incineration generates greenhouse gas emission savings when it recovers electricity and heat. Moreover the study found that the expected increase on the amount of Municipal Solid Waste treated for energy recovery in England by 2020 could save greenhouse gas emission, if certain Energy from Waste technologies would be applied, under certain conditions.     

Odour-impact assessment around a landfill site from weather-type classification, complaint inventory and numerical simulation

Gases released from landfill sites into the atmosphere have the potential to cause olfactory nuisances within the surrounding communities. Landfill sites are often located over complex topography for convenience mainly related to waste disposal and environmental masking. Dispersion of odours is strongly conditioned by local atmospheric dynamics. Assessment of odour impacts needs to take into account the variability of local atmospheric dynamics. In this study, we discuss a method to assess odour impacts around a landfill site located over complex terrain in order to provide information to be used subsequently to identify management strategies to reduce olfactory nuisances in the residential neighbourhoods. A weather-type classification is defined in order to identify meteorological conditions under which olfactory nuisances are to be expected. A non-steady state Gaussian model and a full-physics meteorological model are used to predict olfactory nuisances, for both the winter and summer scenarios that lead to the majority of complaints in neighbourhoods surrounding the landfill site. Simulating representative scenarios rather than full years make a high resolution simulation of local atmospheric dynamics in space and time possible. Results underline the key role of local atmospheric dynamics in driving the dispersion of odours. The odour concentration simulated by the full-physics meteorological model is combined with the density of the population in order to calculate an average population exposure for the two scenarios. Results of this study are expected to provide helpful information to develop technical solutions for an effective management of landfill operations, which would reduce odour impacts within the surrounding communities.     

The effects on waste reduction and recycling rates when different components of the waste stream are counted

States differ in the components or solid waste management activities which they include when determining solid waste reduction and recycling rates. Thus, when attempting to draw comparisons among states, confusion arises in two ways: (1) use of two types of rates; and (2) use of different components or activities when calculating a given rate. This paper presents a mathematical basis for understanding the impacts on rate calculations when variations occur in the components and activities included in those calculations. Estimates of the incremental changes occurring in the rate calculations when incineration or selected components such as yard waste, construction and demolition wastes, and junked automobiles, are added to a base of municipal solid waste constituents are found using national data. Finally, the achieved rates reported by states counting different combinations are compared.     

EFFECT OF WATER QUALITY STANDARDS ON FARM INCOME,RISK, AND NPS POLLUTION1

ABSTRACT: Enforceable standards play a crucial role in the design and implementation of most water quality policies. The impacts of these standards on farm income and nonpoint source (NPS) pollution can provide valuable information to develop economic policies that can improve water quality with minimal loss in income and minimal risk. This study uses an integration of nonlinear programming and a simulation model to assess the impacts of enforceable standards at technology and farm boundary levels. The results indicate that the type of pollutant regulated, enforcement type, and the level of standard had a significant impact on farm income and water quality. Choice of farm boundary standards over technology standards is dependent on the impact of the policy on other NPS pollutants, in addition to the reduction of nitrate and phosphorus pollutants. Enforcing farm boundary standards on nitrates had desirable effects on subsurface and percolate nitrogen and variance in income. Technology standards were uncertain in their effects because of the restriction on the choice of technologies available to farmers. A comparative policy analysis considering incentives, multiple impacts, transaction costs of implementation, and regional consideration is important to an effective policy design.     

Multiple Benefits of Carbon-Friendly Agricultural Practices: Empirical Assessment of Conservation Tillage

This study empirically estimates the multiple benefits of a subsidy policy that would offer payments to farmers in return for the adoption of conservation tillage, and compares the outcomes of alternative targeting designs for such a policy. The least-cost incentive payment policy schemes are simulated for the State of Iowa by using the data for roughly 12,000 National Resource Inventory (NRI) points. We use an economic conservation tillage adoption model to evaluate the costs of adoption and a physical process simulation model (EPIC) to estimate the environmental benefits due to adoption at each of the NRI points.Two targeting options are considered. We assess the costs and environmental consequences of a practice-based policy instrument (which maximizes the acres of land in conservation tillage, regardless of its level of environmental benefits) and contrast it to a performance-based instrument (which yields the highest amount of environmental benefits per dollar spent). Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils, reduction of soil erosion by wind and water, and the reduction in nitrogen runoff are considered as possible targets for the performance-based instruments. We find that the practice-based instrument provides high proportions of the four benefits relative to the policies that target the benefits directly, especially at the higher policy budget levels. Similarly, we estimate that targeting one of the four benefits individually provides high percentages of the other benefits as compared with the amounts of the benefits obtainable if they were targeted directly.     

A model for cost-benefit analysis of construction and demolition waste management throughout the waste chain

Economic instrument is indubitably perceived as effective for encouraging or forcing contractors to conduct environmentally friendly construction practices. Previous studies in relation to this topic mainly put emphasis on economic analysis of construction and demolition (C&D) waste management from a static point of view, which failed to consider its dynamics nature by integrating all essential activities throughout the waste chain. This paper is thus intended to highlight the dynamics and interrelationships of C&D waste management practices and analyze the cost-benefit of this process using a system dynamics approach. Data related to concrete and aggregate of a construction project in Shenzhen was collected for the application of the proposed model. The findings reveal that net benefits from conducting C&D waste management will occur, but a higher landfill charge will lead to a higher net benefit, as well as an earlier realization of the net benefit. In addition, the general public under a higher landfill charge will suffer from a higher environmental cost caused by illegal dumping. The simulation results also suggest that current regulation in Shenzhen should be promoted to facilitate a dramatic increase in net benefit from the implementation of C&D waste management. This research is of value in facilitating better understanding on the dynamics of C&D waste management activities throughout the waste chain, as well as providing a tool for simulating the cost-benefit of C&D waste management practices over the project duration.     

Environmental,economic and social costs and benefits of a packaging waste management system: A Portuguese case study

The impact of the management of packaging waste on the environment, economic growth and job creation is analyzed in this paper. This integrated assessment intends to cover a gap in the literature for this type of studies, using the specific case study of the Portuguese packaging waste management system (SIGRE).The net environmental benefits associated with the management of packaging waste, are calculated using the Life Cycle Assessment methodology. The results show that, for the categories studied, the impacts associated to SIGRE's various activities are surpassed by the benefits associated to material and energy recovery, with special focus on recycling. For example, in 2011 SIGRE avoided the emission of 116 kt CO₂ equiv. – the equivalent carbon emission of the electricity consumption of 124.000 households in Portugal.The economic impact of SIGRE is evaluated through Input–Output Analysis. It was found that SIGRE's activities also have a significant economic impact. For example, their added value are ranked amongst the upper third of the economic activities with highest multiplier effect at national level: this means that for each Euro of value added generated within SIGRE, 1.25 additional € are added to the rest of the economy (multiplier effect of 2.25).Regarding the social impacts of SIGRE, the number of direct jobs associated with the system is estimated to be more than two thousand and three hundred workers. Out of these, 83% are connected to the management of municipal waste packaging (selective collection and sorting), 15% are connected to the management of non-municipal packaging waste and only 2% are connected to the Sociedade Ponto Verde (SPV, green dot society in English) – the management entity responsible for SIGRE.In general terms, the results obtained provide quantitative support to the EEA (2011) suggestion that moving up the waste hierarchy – from landfilling to recycling – creates jobs and boosts the economy.     

Integrating Environmental and Socio-Economic Indicators of a Linked Catchment–Coastal System Using Variable Environmental Intensity

Can we develop land use policy that balances the conflicting views of stakeholders in a catchment while moving toward long term sustainability? Adaptive management provides a strategy for this whereby measures of catchment performance are compared against performance goals in order to progressively improve policy. However, the feedback loop of adaptive management is often slow and irreversible impacts may result before policy has been adapted. In contrast, integrated modelling of future land use policy provides rapid feedback and potentially improves the chance of avoiding unwanted collapse events. Replacing measures of catchment performance with modelled catchment performance has usually required the dynamic linking of many models, both biophysical and socio-economic—and this requires much effort in software development. As an alternative, we propose the use of variable environmental intensity (defined as the ratio of environmental impact over economic output) in a loose coupling of models to provide a sufficient level of integration while avoiding significant effort required for software development. This model construct was applied to the Motueka Catchment of New Zealand where several biophysical (riverine water quantity, sediment, E. coli faecal bacteria, trout numbers, nitrogen transport, marine productivity) models, a socio-economic (gross output, gross margin, job numbers) model, and an agent-based model were linked. An extreme set of land use scenarios (historic, present, and intensive) were applied to this modelling framework. Results suggest that the catchment is presently in a near optimal land use configuration that is unlikely to benefit from further intensification. This would quickly put stress on water quantity (at low flow) and water quality (E. coli). To date, this model evaluation is based on a theoretical test that explores the logical implications of intensification at an unlikely extreme in order to assess the implications of likely growth trajectories from present use. While this has largely been a desktop exercise, it would also be possible to use this framework to model and explore the biophysical and economic impacts of individual or collective catchment visions. We are currently investigating the use of the model in this type of application.