Climate change adaptation and cross-sectoral policy coherence in southern Africa

To be effective, climate change adaptation needs to be mainstreamed across multiple sectors and greater policy coherence is essential. Using the cases of Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia, this paper investigates the extent of coherence in national policies across the water and agriculture sectors and to climate change adaptation goals outlined in national development plans. A two-pronged qualitative approach is applied using Qualitative Document Analysis of relevant policies and plans, combined with expert interviews from non-government actors in each country. Findings show that sector policies have differing degrees of coherence on climate change adaptation, currently being strongest in Zambia and weakest in Tanzania. We also identify that sectoral policies remain more coherent in addressing immediate-term disaster management issues of floods and droughts rather than longer-term strategies for climate adaptation. Coherence between sector and climate policies and strategies is strongest when the latter has been more recently developed. However to date, this has largely been achieved by repackaging of existing sectoral policy statements into climate policies drafted by external consultants to meet international reporting needs and not by the establishment of new connections between national sectoral planning processes. For more effective mainstreaming of climate change adaptation, governments need to actively embrace longer-term cross-sectoral planning through cross-Ministerial structures, such as initiated through Zambia’s Interim Climate Change Secretariat, to foster greater policy coherence and integrated adaptation planning.     

Costs and benefits of adapting spatial planning to climate change: lessons learned from a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands

Climate change increases the vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas. Careful spatial planning can reduce this vulnerability, provided that decision-makers have insight into the costs and benefits of adaptation options. This paper addresses the question which adaptation options are suitable, from an economic perspective, to adapt spatial planning to climate change at a regional scale. We apply social cost–benefit analysis to assess the net benefits of adaptation options that deal with the impacts of climate change-induced extreme events. From the methods applied and results obtained, we also aim at learning lessons for assessing climate adaptation options. The case study area, the Zuidplaspolder, is a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands. The costs as well as the primary and secondary benefits of adaptation options relating to spatial planning (e.g. flood-proof housing and adjusted infrastructure) are identified and where possible quantified. Our results show that three adaptation options are not efficient investments, as the investment costs exceed the benefits of avoided damages. When we focus on ‘climate proofing’ the total area of the Zuidplaspolder, when the costs and benefits of all the presented adaptation options are considered together, the total package has a positive net present value. The study shows that it is possible to anticipate climate change impacts and assess the costs and benefits of adjusting spatial planning. We have learned that scenario studies provide a useful tool but that decision-making under climate change uncertainty also requires insight into the probabilities of occurrence of weather extremes in the future.     

The role of ad hoc networks in supporting climate change adaptation: a case study from the Southeastern United States

To examine the factors that support adaptation within a regional and sectoral context, this article explores five climate-sensitive sectors in North and South Carolina (Forestry, Government Administration, Tourism, Water Management, and Wildlife Management) and the role of partnerships, collaborations, and networks in facilitating climate adaptation and related activities. Drawing from 117 online questionnaires and interviews with sector leaders across the Carolinas, the article highlights several key functions of networks in regard to supporting adaptation—intra-sector information sharing; monitoring, data collection, and research; and education and outreach. Furthermore, the analysis examines how climate networks in the region have facilitated the development of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital while also noting factors that have constrained the growth and success of both intra- and cross-sector collaboration. Although no formal, or discrete, state or regional cross-sector climate change network exists in the Carolinas, climate adaptations and capacity-building efforts have been supported by ad hoc and decentralized networks, emerging collegial partnerships within and across sectors, and collaborative efforts to pool expertise and resources. The role of different forms of social capital within these networks is discussed in the context of a contentious political environment where support for activities designed to address climate change is limited. These findings enhance our understanding of the social factors and relational processes that shape and influence capacity to adapt to climate change.     

Climate change adaptation and sustainable regional development: a case study for the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany

Located in a relatively dry region and characterized by mainly sandy soils, the German Federal State of Brandenburg (surrounding the capital city of Berlin) is especially vulnerable to climate change impacts (e.g., summer droughts) and cascading effects on ecological systems (e.g., decreasing ground water tables, water stress, fire risk, productivity losses) with socioeconomic implications. Furthermore, a complex interplay of unemployment, rural exodus, and an aging population challenges this structurally weak region. We discuss adaptation measures that are either implemented or planned, as well as research into adaptation strategies to climate change for the sectors forestry, agriculture, and water management as well as in nature conservation in light of socioeconomic and ecological challenges and benefits. In doing so, we adopt a systemic view of Brandenburg where the sectors discussed are seen as subsystems embedded in a larger regional system. This at least partially holarchical approach enables the identification of conflicts between adaptation measures, but also of synergies among the sectors that pertain to successful adaptation to climate change. The insights gained ultimately highlight the need for cross-sectoral, adaptive management practices that jointly target a sustainable regional development.     

Potential of existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government for implementing adaptation to climate change

The impacts of climate change are apparent in various regions of the world. Even though climate change may have a positive effect, it is anticipated that there will be many severely negative effects on human and natural resources in the future. Therefore, in addition to the need for stronger promotion of mitigation policies, it is urgently necessary to study and implement adaptation policies over the longer term to prepare for the possible negative impact of climate change. To implement climate change adaptation measures rapidly in Japan, it would seem practical and effective to make good use of the various countermeasures already promoted by both the national and the local governments for many sectors such as disaster prevention, environmental management, food production, and protection of the nation’s health. These countermeasures are considered to have potential for effecting climate change adaptation. This study, focusing on adaptation to climate change negative impacts, investigates to what extent the existing policies of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government could contribute to climate change adaptation, based on a comprehensive examination of targeted fields and indicators for which adaptation policies could be pursued. The results showed many of the existing policies could be useful for adaptation to climate change in many sectors. Furthermore, less than half of these policies need to take future climate change into account in order to contribute to climate change adaptation. This study proposes three basic steps that consider future climate change and local governmental propositions for the rapid implementation of adaptation policies in Japan.     

Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK

There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health.We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination.Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM_2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socioeconomically deprived.A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted.     

Integration, synthesis and climate change adaptation: a narrative based on coastal wetlands at the regional scale

The idea that integration and synthesis are critical for designing climate change adaptation and mitigation is well entrenched conceptually. Here, we review the concepts of adaptation, synthesis and integration and apply them to the case study of coastal wetlands in South East Queensland, Australia. The distribution and condition of coastal wetlands will change as climate changes. This will create conservation challenges and economic costs, but these can be minimised by drawing from a broad sectoral perspective in undertaking adaptation planning and by ensuring integration into policy. Our review indicates that adaptations to sea level rise that are focussed on wetland and biodiversity conservation are likely to have impacts for urbanisation patterns. Planning regulations that provide spatial buffering around wetlands may give rise to more compact urban forms that may lead to reductions in the cost of defence against sea level rise, reduce energy usage per person and provide more green space. However, more compact urban forms could exacerbate heat island effects and place greater burden on the economically disadvantaged as, for example, single-family homes become more expensive. Planning for climate change needs to balance these equity and cross-sectoral issues in order to reduce the likelihood of unforeseen negative consequences.     

Power asymmetries and institutions: landscape conservation in central India

Understanding the importance of cross-sectoral implications of climate and socio-economic change in Scotland is essential for adaptation policy. This study explored the direct and indirect sectoral impacts of future change using the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform. There is great spatial diversity in projected impacts across Scotland, and increasing uncertainty in the direction of change of impacts from the national to regional scale associated with climate uncertainty. Further uncertainty associated with socio-economic change results in 6 out of 13 indicators (artificial surfaces, biodiversity vulnerability, forest area, land-use intensity, irrigation usage and land-use diversity) with robust directions of change at the national scale and only three (artificial surfaces, forest area and irrigation usage) that are robust across all regions of Scotland. Complex interactions between socio-economic scenario assumptions (e.g. food imports, population and GDP), climatic suitability and agricultural productivity and profitability lead to significant national and regional changes in the distribution and extent of land cover types, with resultant cross-sectoral interactions with water, forestry and biodiversity. Consequently, stakeholders characterised robust adaptation policy options, within the CLIMSAVE participatory process, as those beneficial to society (and the country) in all scenarios, irrespective of the direction of change of the impacts. The integration in CLIMSAVE of a participatory scenario development process and an integrated participatory modelling framework has allowed the exploration of future uncertainty in a structured approach and better represented the importance of qualitative information and the social and institutional contexts within adaptation research.     

The application of the contingent valuation method in estimating the climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in Greece. An expert-based approach

When dealing with the ecological, social and economic impacts of climate change, it is important for each country to formulate and implement mitigation and adaptation measures. In this context, the present paper examines the application of the contingent valuation method (CVM) for the monetary estimation of the Greek national mitigation and adaptation climate change costs. To this purpose, the CVM in this case study has been applied to the Greek climate change experts only as, theoretically, they represent the most informed part of Greek society in technical and economic aspects of the climate change. Therefore, the findings of this paper express strictly the opinions of the national experts and are not representative of the general population. The monetary estimates include the experts’ WTP for mitigation and adaptation measures as well as their preferences on that percentage of the national GDP that should be funding such measures at the present as well as the future time-scale. In addition, questions concerning the political and institutional climate change settings are included in the survey, providing a more comprehensive socioeconomic analysis in this particular study.     

An integrated decision-support process for adaptation planning: climate change as impetus for scenario planning in an agricultural region of Canada

The amount of information required to adapt to climate change is vast: downscaled climate projections, information on environmental impact, sectoral performance, external drivers, regional strategies, policies and practices. It can be argued that most of this information is accessible at the community/regional level, and thus, the important challenges to adaptation are not information gaps, but constraints created by fragmented planning decisions and a sector-by-sector basis for financial and human resource allocations. To strategically address this through adaptation planning, we developed and tested a place-based decision-making framework that creates an integrated platform for considering regional and global sectoral drivers in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Using available socioeconomic and biophysical information from regional authorities, alternative future scenarios were used to describe the range of socioeconomic futures and their vulnerabilities to climate change. We found that: (1) integration of diverse sets of available data (rather than narrowly focused sectoral assessments) helped identify shared common objectives (maximizing the long-term environmental, economic, social well-being within the region), (2) a high degree of congruence existed as the key drivers of change, irrespective of sector, (3) exploring the future scenarios highlighted shared regional priorities and helped identify adaptation priorities requiring more integrated regional planning.     

气候变化经济学研究综述

对近10 a来国内外有关气候变化经济学研究成果作了综述。气候变化经济学是一门研究人类干预气候变化过程中涉及经济过程的学科。当前的研究热点包括气候变化的经济影响、适应措施的成本和收益、国际合作机制和涉及代际公平的折现率选取。 在研究方法上,对得到广泛运用的成本收益分析法和碳税机制作了详细的评述。在应用层面上,欧美发达国家在城市气候变化经济评估系统建立和碳税征收方面都有成功的应用,但我国在这方面的实践还处于起步阶段。对于我国气候变化经济学领域的研究来说,比较适合在发达省份以市域或省域为单位开展成本收益评估,发展中省份则应将更多关注放在评估气候变化可能造成的经济损害及相应的防范措施。此外,我国也应关注在欧盟地区实施较为成功的碳税政策,虽然目前在中国开征碳税的可能性较低,但是对碳税在中国实施的可行性、税率选取及立法保障机制等方面的探讨和研究仍是必要的     

Human ecological effects of tropical storms in the coastal area of Ky Anh (Ha Tinh,Vietnam)

Vietnam is prone to tropical storms. Climate change effects contribute to sea level rise, floods, progression of the low water line and coastal erosion. This paper inventories the perception of local people, assesses and values main aspects of the livelihood damage caused by the tropical storms of the period 2008–2013 in three coastal communes of the Ky Anh District of the Ha Tinh Province in Central Vietnam. The communes were selected because the location of their coastal line is perpendicular to the storm itself, which made them prone to damage. The effects of increasingly extreme weather conditions on three communities in an area most affected by storms and floods on the local residents and their responses to these changing environmental conditions are analyzed and assessed. The results of questionnaires completed by randomly selected local inhabitants of these communes show that storms and related hazards such as flood, sea level rise and heavy rain are perceived as the most impacting climate change intensified phenomena on agriculture and aquaculture, livestock, household property and income. Opinions and measured data provided by the commune and district authorities allow estimating the total direct cost of the tropical storm at 1.56 million $US (The used conversion rate VND/$US is 21,730 when the research was conducted in 2014) during the period 2008–2013. The long-term costs of adaptation and social impact measures will be significantly higher. Details of the monetary figures allow identifying the physical and natural capital of the area as being most affected by the storm. Trend and cost analysis show that the total financial support for hazard prevention and management during 2014–2019 is estimated at 1.19 up to 1.32 million $US. Local stakeholders indicate that climate change adaptation should not be limited to technical measures such as strengthening dikes, but also should target planting protection forests and mangroves and land use planning. Financial support for the relocation policy, stakeholder involvement and integrating climate change adaptation in both the socioeconomic development master plan and local land use planning are also of importance.     

Adaptive urban governance: new challenges for the second generation of urban adaptation strategies to climate change

The task of adapting cities to the impacts of climate change is of great importance—urban areas are hotspots of high risk given their concentrations of population and infrastructure; their key roles for larger economic, political and social processes; and their inherent instabilities and vulnerabilities. Yet, the discourse on urban climate change adaptation has only recently gained momentum in the political and scientific arena. This paper reviews the recent climate change adaptation strategies of nine selected cities and analyzes them in terms of overall vision and goals, baseline information used, direct and indirect impacts, proposed structural and non-structural measures, and involvement of formal and informal actors. Against this background, adaptation strategies and challenges in two Vietnamese cities are analyzed in detail, namely Ho Chi Minh City and Can Tho. The paper thereby combines a review of formalized city-scale adaptation strategies with an empirical analysis of actual adaptation measures and constraints at household level. By means of this interlinked and comparative analysis approach, the paper explores the achievements, as well as the shortcomings, in current adaptation approaches, and generates core issues and key questions for future initiatives in the four sub-categories of: (1) knowledge, perspectives, uncertainties and key threats; (2) characteristics of concrete adaptation measures and processes; (3) interactions and conflicts between different strategies and measures; (4) limits of adaptation and tipping points. In conclusion, the paper calls for new forms of adaptive urban governance that go beyond the conventional notions of urban (adaptation) planning. The proposed concept underlines the need for a paradigm shift to move from the dominant focus on the adjustment of physical structures towards the improvement of planning tools and governance processes and structures themselves. It addresses in particular the necessity to link different temporal and spatial scales in adaptation strategies, to acknowledge and to mediate between different types of knowledge (expert and local knowledge), and to achieve improved integration of different types of measures, tools and norm systems (in particular between formal and informal approaches).     

Recent climate change in the Prince Edward County winegrowing region,Ontario, Canada: implications for adaptation in a fledgling wine industry

There is mounting evidence that climate change is already having an impact on the wine industry, with effects being region specific. In order to understand the capacity of regional wine sectors to adapt to changing climate, it is useful to document the conditions that are important to producers and to identify adaptation and management strategies that are employed in the industry. This paper analyzes climatic conditions and adaptation strategies in the wine region of Prince Edward County Ontario, Canada. Wine producers identified the climate variables most important to their operations and described strategies they use to manage climate-related conditions. The identified variables were analyzed for trends over the study period 1987–2011, and interview data were analyzed in order to categorize adaptive strategies. Results indicate that the wine sector is very sensitive to climate, and the region is already experiencing the effects of climate change, especially with regard to increasing growing season mean minimum daily temperatures, increasing total summer rainfall, and later onset of fall frosts. Adaptive strategies employed by producers are largely learned though collaborative efforts and trial and error. The adaptations are mostly tactical and reactive in the short term, but with continued climate change, these strategies may develop into strategic, anticipatory measures. Climate change has the potential to present both challenges and opportunities to Prince Edward County wine producers, and adaptations will continue to require strong networking and collaborative efforts.     

“双碳”目标下中国气候变化立法的双阶体系构造

中国在第75届联合国大会期间提出了CO2排放力争在2030年前达到峰值,在2060年前实现碳中和的"双碳"目标。"双碳"目标的确立提出了艰巨而紧迫的立法任务。由于气候变化具有全球性的特点,因此,中国未来气候变化立法的监管领域在关注国内监管空间和已有立法的同时,还应注意其国际面向的监管空间和衔接。气候变化法律具有复杂性、综合性、系统性和动态性的特点,国际上还没有通过一部气候变化法即可解决全部碳排放问题的成功先例。气候变化法律监管空间宏大,涉及领域和问题复杂多样。所涉及的领域和问题都与应对气候变化有直接或间接的关联。这决定了气候变化立法包含以实现气候政策目标为主要目的的直接立法和对气候目标实现具有支持、阻碍影响的间接立法两种类型。中国应对气候变化的立法应采用双阶体系构造模式,即直接立法加间接立法的模式。直接立法包括气候变化的框架法和专项立法,间接立法包括所有间接影响气候政策目标实现的相关法律。直接立法解决应对气候应对的目标、碳预算、管理体制、实施机制等较为集中的问题。间接立法则因为气候变化监管措施跨领域、跨部门和行业,应拓展至能源法、经济法、农业法、环境法、民商法等领域。直接立法和间接立法的有关法律制度应密切配合,彼此呼应,构成一个完整的应对气候变化的法律制度体系。以直接立法加间接立法的双阶模式构建中国的应对气候变化法律体系是应对气候变化立法模式的理性选择,并以此从不同的路径实现中国温室气体减排的目标。     

A guide towards climate change adaptation in the livestock sector: adaptation options and the role of robust decision-making tools for their economic appraisal

Economic appraisal and technical effectiveness of adaptation options are key criteria for judging climate change adaptation investment decisions in all sectors. Yet relatively little methodological guidance exists for determining the most appropriate appraisal techniques for different adaptation options. This paper provides adaptation options and scopes relevant appraisal methods in agriculture focussing on livestock production specifically. We find that for many adaptation options for livestock agriculture, standard (expected) cost-benefit analysis is an appropriate tool. For adaptation options requiring long lead times or those with long lifetimes, techniques incorporating uncertainty (‘robust’ methods) are more suitable, including real options analysis, portfolio analysis and robust decision-making. From a comprehensive list of adaptation options in the livestock sector, we identify the most appropriate appraisal technique for each option and describe how the robust appraisal tools could be applied to heat stress, flood risk and water management.

     

Policy entrepreneurs in international river basins—getting climate adaptation on the cross-border water policy agenda

In this study, we look at the role which water policy entrepreneurs play in promoting and stimulating climate adaptation measures in international river basins. In a Dutch-German case study in the Rhine delta, we explore the range of strategies that policy entrepreneurs employ in cross-border water management to effectively anchor and embed climate adaptation in the water policy debate.

We focus on climate adaptation on the local and regional scale in the Deltarhine region where increased flooding and prolonged drought periods are expected under the current climate change scenarios with a considerable impact on flood protection, agricultural activities, drinking water and ecosystem development.

We analyse the impact of policy entrepreneurs while coping with the challenging cross-border setting and dealing with structural differences in national systems such as the legal and institutional framework. It is shown that whilst the European water guidelines advocate a river basin approach across borders, the guidelines do not (yet) play a catalyst role regarding climate adaptation, and the presence and activities of policy entrepreneurs contribute in putting climate adaptation on the cross-border policy agenda.

Finally, marked differences in the presence of entrepreneurs in Germany and the Netherlands are observed for which two important complementary explanations are offered relating to contextual elements of power asymmetry and dependency as well as different policy styles and organisational cultures in both countries.

     

Multi-criteria decision analysis in adaptation decision-making: a flood case study in Finland

Decision-making for the purpose of adaptation to climate change typically involves multiple stakeholders, regions and sectors as well as multiple objectives related to the use of resources and perceived benefits. Standard cost–benefit analysis can be argued to take into account easily monetised effects only. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) embedded in participatory processes can therefore play an important role in defining the decision context and exploring stakeholders’ preferences. In this paper, a case study on flood protection of the Kokemäki river running through the city of Pori in West Finland was conducted. The study was realised as a MCDA workshop involving the key stakeholders of the region. The analysis produced a robust ranking of the considered flood protection alternatives. According to the stakeholders, the approach was useful as an exploratory way of gaining a deeper and shared understanding of the flood protection. It was shown that MCDA is well suited for decision-making in adaptation to climate change–enhanced extreme events.     

气候变化对江苏省经济的影响研究

利用经济学上的“投入－产出”分析方法,结合气候变化对农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统,研究了当气候变化影响农业生产和产量时,江苏省农业产值的变化及与农业部门相联系的国民经济各个部门产出量的变化。考虑江苏省的经济发展速度和产业结构,预测了未来不同的气候变化情景下,为使经济发展达到预期目标,社会需对各经济部门追加的资金投入量及各经济部门之间相互投入量的变化,提出了适应气候变化的相应对策。研究结果反映了国民经济各部门之间及部门与整体的相互联系,从而对制定区域经济平衡发展规划提供了理论依据和建议。     

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.