Implications of future bioclimatic shifts on Portuguese forests

As climate is an important driver of vegetation distribution, climate change represents an important challenge to forestry. We (1) identify prevailing bioclimatic conditions for 49 relevant forest species in Portugal and (2) assess future shifts under climate change scenarios. We compute two bioclimatic indices (aridity and thermicity) and a new composite index, at ~1 km spatial resolution, and overlap with the species’ current ranges. Locations are based on a digital inventory, while climate parameters for both recent-past (1950–2000) and future climates (2041–2060), under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, are provided by a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations. Results for future scenarios highlight an overall warming and drying trend. Supramediterranean and mesomediterranean climates will be significantly reduced, while thermomediterranean climates will dramatically increase, from their almost absence in current conditions to an area coverage of ~54 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5. There is also a clear shift from hyper-humid and humid to sub-humid and from the latter to semi-arid climates (area coverage of ~13 % in 2041–2060 for RCP8.5). Lower thermomediterranean sub-humid to semi-arid zones will cover the southern half of Portugal. These projections identify the most vulnerable (e.g. Betula pubescens, Quercus pyrenaica and Castanea sativa) and the most adapted (e.g. Quercus suber, Q. rotundifolia, Ceratonia siliqua, Pinus pinea, Quercus coccifera) species in future climates. Current bioclimatic zones associated with Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus pinaster, economically relevant species, will be moderately reduced and relocated. Possible adaptation measures are discussed to improve forest resilience to climate change, while maintaining its economic and environmental benefits.     

Climate change driven plant–metal–microbe interactions

Various biotic and abiotic stress factors affect the growth and productivity of crop plants. Particularly, the climatic and/or heavy metal stress influence various processes including growth, physiology, biochemistry, and yield of crops. Climatic changes particularly the elevated atmospheric CO₂ enhance the biomass production and metal accumulation in plants and help plants to support greater microbial populations and/or protect the microorganisms against the impacts of heavy metals. Besides, the indirect effects of climatic change (e.g., changes in the function and structure of plant roots and diversity and activity of rhizosphere microbes) would lead to altered metal bioavailability in soils and concomitantly affect plant growth. However, the effects of warming, drought or combined climatic stress on plant growth and metal accumulation vary substantially across physico–chemico–biological properties of the environment (e.g., soil pH, heavy metal type and its bio-available concentrations, microbial diversity, and interactive effects of climatic factors) and plant used. Overall, direct and/or indirect effects of climate change on heavy metal mobility in soils may further hinder the ability of plants to adapt and make them more susceptible to stress. Here, we review and discuss how the climatic parameters including atmospheric CO₂, temperature and drought influence the plant–metal interaction in polluted soils. Other aspects including the effects of climate change and heavy metals on plant–microbe interaction, heavy metal phytoremediation and safety of food and feed are also discussed. This review shows that predicting how plant–metal interaction responds to altering climatic change is critical to select suitable crop plants that would be able to produce more yields and tolerate multi-stress conditions without accumulating toxic heavy metals for future food security.     

Genetic differentiation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus mugo</Emphasis> Turra and <Emphasis Type="Italic">P. sylvestris</Emphasis> L. populations in the Ukrainian Carpathians and the Swiss Alps

The allozyme analysis of six local populations of Pinus mugo Turra and six populations of P. sylvestris L. in the Ukrainian Carpathians, Swiss Alps, and Schwarzwald has shown a higher polymorphism and greater interpopulation differentiation of the Carpathian group of P. mugo populations compared to the Alpine group (Nei’s genetic distance DN ₇₈ at the level of geographic population group is −0.023). A genetic differentiation of DN ₇₈ = 0.049 between these populations, which are isolated by a distance of more than 1000 km, has been found. This confirms the existence of the subspecies P. mugo ssp. mugo and P. mugo ssp. uncinata in the Carpathians and Alps, respectively. The hypothesis is put forward that the former subspecies has been formed in the Balkans and the latter, in the Pyreneans. It has been demonstrated that regional populations and geographic groups of P. sylvestris are less differentiated than those of P. mugo.     

Projected burden of disease for Salmonella infection due to increased temperature in Australian temperate and subtropical regions

ObjectiveThis study aimed to project the future disability burden of Salmonella infection associated with increased temperature in future in temperate and subtropical regions of Australia in order to provide recommendations for public health policy to respond to climate change.MethodsYears Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) were used as the measure of the burden of disease in this study. Regions in temperate and subtropical Australia were selected for this study. Future temperature change scenarios in the study were based on Australian projections, developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO). YLDs for Salmonella infection in 2000 were calculated as the baseline data. YLDs for Salmonella infection in 2030 and 2050 under future temperature change scenarios were projected based on the quantitative relationship between temperature and disease examined in previously published regression models. Future demographic change was also considered in this analysis.ResultsCompared with the YLDs in 2000, increasing temperature and demographic changes may lead to a 9%–48% increase in the YLDs for Salmonella infection by 2030 and a 31%–87% increase by 2050 in the temperate region, and a 51%–100% increase by 2030 and an 87%–143% increase by 2050 in the subtropical region, if other factors remain constant.ConclusionTemperature-related health burden of Salmonella infection in Australia may increase in the future due to change in climate and demography in the absence of effective public health interventions. Relevant public health strategies should be developed at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health burden of climate change.     

Artisanal fishers’ ethnobotany: from plant diversity use to agrobiodiversity management

Artisanal fishers interact with plants in many ways, and with different intensities. In spite of being characterized by fisheries, Caiçaras use plants with varied degrees of management, since the less intensive management actions, extraction of forest products, until intensively management actions through the cultivation of the agrobiodiversity. This study presents the results of different research projects and includes the North and the South regions of São Paulo state coast. The objective is to characterize the diversity of extracted and cultivated species by traditional fishers at Southeastern region of Brazilian Atlantic forest. Ethnobotanical surveys revealed a high diversity of plants known and used, ranging up to a richness of 272 species known in two communities for the South coast, most of them being native. However, depending on the management intensity, this diversity can be rather particularized: we found 68 varieties of cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) at North region and 58 varieties at the South region, with exclusive vernacular names. Through an ethnobotanical perspective, we compare and discuss the different dynamic systems underlying the relationships between fishers and plants. The diversity of cultivated plants is analyzed in depth, focusing on the historical importance of agriculture among people who are currently characterized as fishers. A schematic model is proposed to explain the dynamic systems operating in the relationships between fishers and plants.     

Estimated heavy metal emissions to the atmosphere due to projected changes in the Brazilian energy generation matrix

An estimate of heavy metals emissions to the atmosphere due to the projected changes in the Brazilian energy generation fuel matrix is presented. Present use of fossil fuel combustion for energy production is projected to increase from the present 14.5% to 29.6% of the total energy generation in Brazil in 2005. Most of this increase will be based on coal- and natural-gas-burning plants. The changes will result in an increase of about 100% in the average emissions (in tons year⁻¹) of As (9.4 to 17.7), Cr (7.0 to 16.6) and Hg (2.4 to 4.1), 50% of Cd (1.2 to 1.8), and 20% of Ni (101 to 123) and Pb (23.3 to 29.9). Although relatively small for most heavy metals when compared to other industrial sources, the changes in the energy matrix will be particularly important for Hg, reaching a maximum emission of 12 tons (t) year⁻¹, representing 15% of the total emissions of Hg to the atmosphere in Brazil. The use of Brazilian coals and the location of most coal-burning plants in a relatively small region in the south of the country strongly suggest that monitoring programs should be implemented during the building of the new plants. At a regional level the expected increase in Hg emissions to the atmosphere due to coal burning in Brazil, although small relative to North America and Europe, will equal the total amount estimated for South and Central America.     

Latitudinal pattern in species diversity and its response to global warming in permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing’an Mountains, China

Permafrost wetlands are one of the most sensitive plant communities in response to global warming. Global warming could induce natural plant communities to shift into cooler climate zones, or extirpate. To understand how plant communities in permafrost wetlands are affected by global warming, we examined the patterns of plant species diversity in the 24 permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing’an Mountains along a latitudinal gradient. This gradient was characterized by a northward decline in mean annual temperature (Δ = 3.5°C) and mean annual precipitation (Δ = 38.7 mm). Our results indicated that latitudinal patterns in species diversity existed in the permafrost wetlands. The numbers of family, genus and species, the Gleason index and Shannon-Wiener index for shrubs decreased linearly with decreasing latitude, but increased for herbaceous plants. The latitudinal patterns in species diversity had influenced strongly by temperature. Simple linear regression yielded about 2 decreases in shrub number and 9 increases in herbaceous species number with an increase of mean annual temperature by 1°C, with 0.33 decreases in shrub diversity and 0.29 increases in herbaceous species diversity. If temperature warms 3.7°C by 2100, herbaceous plants might increase in the permafrost wetlands, with species number increasing 48% or 6 times and species diversity increasing 40% or 2 times; and some shrub species might decrease and even disappear in part of the areas with lower latitude, with species number decreasing 50–100% and species diversity decreasing 69–100%. The permafrost wetlands in the Great Hing’an Mountains might continue degenerating and shift northward with global warming over the next century.     

Gradient Genogeographic Analysis of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus sylvestris</Emphasis> L. Populations in Europe

Gradients of Nei's genetic distances between 15 samples of Pinus sylvestris L. trees were analyzed along three submeridional transects, from Scandinavia to the Mediterranean and Transcaucasia. As a result, distinct chorogenetic differentiation was revealed between the populations of this species growing in climatically specific regions of northern and southern Europe. Considerable Nei's distances (DN = 0.045–0.056) and their gradients, combined with differences in stable phenotypic characters (the composition of monoterpenes and morphological parameters of cones) determined at the Pyrenean and Caucasian mountain borders, suggest that the P. sylvestris species structure includes two South Eurasian subspecies, the Pyrenean P. sylvestris L., ssp. iberica Svoboda and the Transcaucasian P. sylvestris L., ssp. hamata (Stev.) Fomin.     

The impact of warming on the appearance of furunculosis in fish of the James Bay region,Quebec, Canada

A regional climate change impact assessment was conducted which investigated the timing of the first appearance of furunculosis caused by the bacterium, Aeromonas salmonicida, in fish of the Ouje-Bougoumou region of northern Quebec, Canada. Historical data were used to assess whether there was a temporal relationship between increased temperatures (observed climate data) and the appearance of furunculosis (traditional environmental knowledge was used to provide context). To project future impacts of climate change, climate models and lake models were used. Regression analysis revealed a significant, positive temporal trend in mean air temperature. The temperature range conducive to A. salmoncida survival coincided with the first appearance of furunculosis. In addition, it is predicted that lake temperatures will remain suitable for the presence of A. salmonicida into the future; it is likely that the disease will persist throughout the twenty-first century. Climate change appears to be a factor explaining the onset of furunculosis; however, other factors/stressors cannot be discounted, such as, the effects past mining activities near the lakes of the Ouje-Bougoumou region have had on the body burden of contaminants in the fish (and the potential effects on the fish immune system).     

Population genetic structure of Pinus tabulaeformis in Shanxi Plateau, China

Chinese pine, Pinus tabulaeformis Carr., a species that ranges broadly across northeastern to southwestern China, plays a vital role in the maintenance of the structure and function of these ecosystems. In this study, we examined the genetic diversity of five widespread populations in Shanxi Plateau, the distribution center of Chinese pine, using 15 random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) primers and five inter simple sequence repeat (ISSR) primers in 140 individual tree samples. Similar genetic differentiation results were obtained from the data of RAPD and ISSR. Based on the two sets of data, Nei’s genetic diversity was 0.2842 and 0.3078 and Shannon’s indices of diversity were 0.4332 and 0.4468. Genetic diversity at the species level was found high relative to that for other genera of Pinaceae. The greatest diversity was observed in the Lingkong Mountain population (0.3860), while the lowest was recorded in the Luya Mountain population (0.3352), most likely as a result of natural adaptation and anthropogenic perturbation. The relative magnitude of differentiation among populations (G _ST) was 0.1491 and 0.1356, respectively, implying that most genetic variation was within the populations (∼0.8509), rather than among populations. Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2008, No. 1, pp. 36–42. The article was translated by the authors.     

Change of Flood Patterns in China under the Influences of Climate Change and Human Activities

Abstract

Based on the flood affected area (FA) data of the provinces in China from 1950 to 2005, the article discusses the change of the flood patterns in China, and investigates its relationship with climate change and human activities. The flood center shifted from North China and the Yangtze–Huaihe basin in the 1950s towards the south, north and west of China, and located in the south of the Yangtze River and South China after the 1990s. The FA in the western provinces was continuously on the rise since the 1950s. There are two characteristics for the future flood pattern in China. The pattern of “flood in the south and drought in the north” depends on the north–south shift of the maximum rainfall region in eastern China. The flood intensification to the west of Hu Huanyong’s line mainly results from the increase of rainfall, extreme precipitation and the melting of glaciers under the background of human activity magnification.     

Range contraction and loss of genetic variation of the Pyrenean endemic newt <Emphasis Type="Italic">Calotriton asper</Emphasis> due to climate change

Many studies have identified climate warming to be among the most important threats to biodiversity. Climate change is expected to have stronger effects on species with low genetic diversity, ectothermic physiology, small ranges, low effective populations sizes, specific habitat requirements and limited dispersal capabilities. Despite an ever-increasing number of studies reporting climate change-induced range shifts, few of these have incorporated species’ specific dispersal constraints into their models. Moreover, the impacts of climate change on genetic variation within populations and species have rarely been assessed, while this is a promising direction for future research. Here we explore the effects of climate change on the potential distribution and genetic variation of the endemic Pyrenean newt Calotriton asper over the period 2020–2080. We use species distribution modelling in combination with high-resolution gridded climate data while subsequently applying four different dispersal scenarios. We furthermore use published data on genetic variation of both mtDNA and AFLP loci to test whether populations with high genetic diversity (nucleotide diversity and expected heterozygosity) or evolutionary history (unique haplotypes and K clusters) have an increased extinction risk from climate change. The present study indicates that climate change drastically reduces the potential distribution range of C. asper and reveals dispersal possibilities to be minimal under the most realistic dispersal scenarios. Despite the major loss in suitable climate, the models highlight relatively large stable areas throughout the species core distribution area indicating persistence of populations over time. The results, however, show a major loss of genetic diversity and evolutionary history. This highlights the importance of accounting for intraspecific genetic variation in climate change impact studies. Likewise, the integration of species’ specific dispersal constraints into projections of species distribution models is an important step to fully explore the effects of climate change on species potential distributions.     

Impacts of invasive plants on ecosystems in natural reserves in Jiangsu of China

To estimate the impacts of invasive plants on ecosystems, a survey has been conducted in three sites including both buffer zones and core zones. 13, 19 species are found in the Yuntai Mountain and Longchi Mountain natural reserve respectively, and 23 in the Purple Mountain Natural Park. Altogether 25 species belonging to 12 families, the majority of which are native to North America, some of them have set up stable reproducible populations. Among them, Solidago canadensis is found in Longchi Mountain and Purple Mountain. Communities of Galinsoga parviflora, Gynura crepidioides, Ageratum conyzoides, and Ambrosia artemisiifolia pose a serious threat to local biodiversity.     

Genetic Differentiation of the Ural Endemic <Emphasis Type="Italic">Gypsophila uralensis</Emphasis> (Caryophyllaceae) in Relict Fragments of Its Range in Northwestern European Russia

Molecular genetic methods (AFLP and ITS1–5.8S–ITS2 rDNA analysis) have been used to study the level and structure of genetic diversity in relict populations of the Ural endemic Gypsophila uralensis Less. in the northeast of European Russia. Intraspecific genetic differentiation is most clearly manifested between G. uralensis Less. subsp. pinegensis (Perf.) Kamelin locally endemic to the north of Europe (Arkhangelsk oblast, locus classicus) the population of G. uralensis Less. subsp. uralensis on limestone outcrops along the Shchugor River, the Subpolar Urals. The cluster of Timan populations (on limestone outcrops along the Svetlaya, Pizhma, and Myla rivers) is autonomous and genetically heterogeneous. Genetic distances between model G. uralensis s.l. populations are correlated with geographic distances. The size and abundance of relict populations show a descending gradient in the forest zone, and parameters of their genetic diversity [1] and unbiased expected heterozygosity have been found to decrease along this gradient.     

Genetic diversity and population structure of the invasive plant <Emphasis Type="Italic">Solanum rostratum</Emphasis> in China

The level of genetic diversity of 13 Chinese populations of S. rostratum was investigated using nine microsatellite loci. The genetic diversity of the Weisanlu population in Hebei province was the highest and the Hohhot population was the lowest. The genetic differentiation among the populations was highly significant (P < 0.001). A total of 68.54% of the total genetic variation of population was within populations, and the genetic variation between populations accounted for 31.46%. The long-distance dispersal of its seeds by human transport mainly resulted in the rapid dispersal of S. rostratum in China.     

Fine-scale spatial patterns of the Tertiary relict Zelkova abelicea (Ulmaceae) indicate possible processes contributing to its persistence to climate changes

In this paper, the fine-scale spatial patterns of the Tertiary relict Zelkova abelicea (Lam.) Boiss. were studied (1) to reveal processes that contributed to its persistence to climate changes and (2) to assist future conservation planning, with the purpose of shifting the attention of conservation practitioners from patterns to processes. Results of the fine-scale spatial patterns of Z. abelicea indicate that the species tolerates disturbance and/or tracks changes resulting from disturbance in the range of its distribution through morphological and reproductive plasticity. In addition, our study indicates that Z. abelicea populations are conserved in the absence of metapopulation structure and that the species participates in plant–plant interactions through facilitation processes. Hence, the persistence of the species to climate changes seems to be more complicated and multifactorial than a linear and plain view of species survival in climate refugial areas, and therefore calls for a consideration of the processes revealed in this paper in future conservation planning.     

A spatially explicit reconstruction of cropland cover in China from 1661 to 1996

Reconstruction of cropland cover is crucial for assessing human impact on the environment. In this study, based on existing studies concerning historical cropland, population data and government inventories, we obtained a provincial cropland area dataset of China for 1661–1996 via collection, revision and reconstruction. Then, the provincial cropland area was allocated into grid cells of 10 × 10 km depending on the land suitability for cultivation. Our reconstruction indicates that cropland increased from ~55.5 × 10⁴ km² in 1661 to ~130.0 × 10⁴ km² in 1996. From 1661 to 1873, cropland expanded tremendously in the Sichuan Basin, and land reclamation was greatly enhanced in North China Plain. For 1873–1980, agricultural development occurred primarily in northeastern China. After 1980, most provinces in the traditionally cultivated region of China experienced decreases in cropland area. In comparison with satellite-based data for 2000, we found that our reconstruction generally captures the spatial distribution of cropland. Also, differences are mostly <20 % (?20 to 20 %). Compared with HYDE 3.1 dataset, which is designed for the global scale, our model is more suitable for reconstructing the historical crop cover of China at 10 × 10 km grid scale. Our reconstruction can be used in climate models to study the impact of crop cover change on the climate and carbon cycle.     

Ecological,morphological, and genetic diversity of burbot (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lota lota</Emphasis> L., 1758) in large river basins of Western Siberia

A study has been performed on the ecological, morphological, and genetic diversity of burbot (sample size n = 204 and n = 134, respectively) from eight localities of the Ob–Irtysh and Taz river basins, Western Siberia. Fish differentiation in body size and weight depending on the dominant type of migration behavior, foraging conditions, and physiographic features of habitats has been revealed. A high genetic diversity (854-bp mtDNA control region) and a low level of between-sample differentiation is evidence for high intergroup gene flow.     

Potentials and impacts of short-rotation coppice plantation with aspen in Eastern Germany under conditions of climate change

Woody biomass generated in short-rotation coppice (SRC) plantations with aspen (Populus tremula L.) has good properties for bioenergy crop production: annual yields are high, labour input per year is low, and it is ecologically valuable because of the multi-year rotation periods. Eastern Germany has a special advantage in producing bioenergy crops: the former “agricultural cooperatives” built up quite large farms with, compared to Western Germany, comparatively large fields. Therefore, a modelling study of the potential and the impacts of aspen SRC plantations in the five eastern federal states of Germany under the recent climate and future climate projections was conducted. The ecophysiological forest growth model 4C was used to simulate the growth of aspen SRC plantations and their impacts on carbon in soils, and groundwater recharge, on selected suitable areas currently under crops but with marginal site conditions for cropping. A clear signal to enhanced growth condition over the whole area can be seen in the simulation of the mean annual woody biomass yield under conditions of climate change, which increased from 7.47 t DW ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the recent climate to 9.26 t DW ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ at the end of the considered future period 2034–2055 under climate change. The mean soil carbon sequestration rate was 0.81 t C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the recent climate and could rise up to 0.93 t C ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ under the assumption of climate change. On the other hand, the mean annual percolation rate, used as an indicator of impacts on the regional water budget, will diminish under future climatic conditions. The results suggest that aspen SRC plantations are a suitable contribution to regional CO₂ mitigation and carbon sequestration under possible change of climate, but that negative impacts on the regional water budget are possible.