Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence systems as analytical tool for assessment of contaminated soils

To determine the heavy metal content in soil samples at contaminated locations, a static and time consuming procedure is used in most cases. Soil samples are collected and analyzed in the laboratory at high quality and high analytical costs. The demand by government and consultants for a more dynamic approach and by customers requiring performances in which analyses are performed in the field with immediate feedback of the analytical results, is growing. Especially during the follow-up of remediation projects or during the determination of the sampling strategy, field analyses are advisable. For this purpose four types of ED-XRF systems, ranging from portable up to high performance laboratory systems, have been evaluated. The evaluation criteria are based on the performance characteristics for all the ED-XRF systems such as limit of detection, accuracy and the measurement uncertainty on one hand, and also the influence of the sample pretreatment on the obtained results on the other hand. The study proved that the field portable system and the bench top system, placed in a mobile van, can be applied as field techniques, resulting in semi-quantitative analytical results. A limited homogenization of the analyzed sample significantly increases the representativeness of the soil sample. The ED-XRF systems can be differentiated by their limits of detection which are a factor of 10 to 20 higher for the portable system. The accuracy of the results and the measurement uncertainty also improved using the bench top system. Therefore, the selection criteria for applicability of both field systems are based on the required detection level and also the required accuracy of the results.     

An evaluation of in situ microcosms for validating aquatic fate and transport models

The fates of two compounds, 2,4 Dichlorophenoxy Acetic Acid Butoxyethyl Ester (2,4-DBEE) and 1,4 Dichlorobenzene (1,4-DCB), were examined in in situ microcosms placed in a pond and compared with the fates in the pond itself. Results also were compared with predictions of an aquatic fate and transport model (EXAMS). Decay rates of 2,4-DBEE were not significantly different among the microcosms, pond and model predictions. The decay rate of 1,4-DCB in the microcosms was significantly lower than the rate for the pond, and lower than the rate predicted by the model. The low volatility of 1,4-DCB in the microcosms is attributed primarily to lack of water surface turbulence in the microcosms.     

An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and the Accelerated Introduction of Advanced Energy Technologies - An Application of MiniCAM 1.0

We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO₂ and CH₄ in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.     

Was basking important in the evolution of mammalian endothermy?

The first mammals were small, nocturnal, and presumably had low metabolic rates and were therefore probably unable to maintain a constant high body temperature throughout cool nights. How these animals, without sufficient heat production for endogenous rewarming, were able to become warm and active again before the next activity period remains unresolved. However, we discovered that, similar to reptiles, the carnivorous marsupial mammal Pseudantechinus macdonnellensis (body mass 30.8LJ.0 g) uses the morning sun to rewarm from low (26.3dž.5°C) body temperatures during torpor. Our findings provide the first evidence of basking during rewarming from torpor in mammals and may provide an alternative explanation as to how ancestral mammals could have become nocturnal to avoid diurnal predators despite their small size and a low endogenous heat production.     

Natural biodegradation of wood preservatives

Natural biodegradation can contain groundwaters impacted by creosote and pentachlorophenol. Using natural biodegradation for such sites is attractive because groundwater restoration is often impracticable, but the dissolved plumes are biodegradable and exert relatively low oxygen demands. Three case studies of its successful use are presented, with emphasis on the types of evidence needed, the rates and extents of removal, and the strategies for incorporating natural biodegradation into a remediation approach. Natural biodegradation was proven at all three sites, using a combination of field geochemical measurements, laboratory simulations, and computer modeling. Contaminant plumes at these three sites were contained within 100 to 700 feet downgradient of the apparent sources, although the rates of biodegradation varied widely. Natural biodegradation should be considered as part of an overall remedial strategy for most sites contaminated by creosote and/or pentachlorophenol.     

Removal of selenate from water by zerovalent iron

Zerovalent iron (ZVI) has been widely used in the removal of environmental contaminants from water. In this study, ZVI was used to remove selenate [Se(VI)] at a level of 1000 microg L(-1) in the presence of varying concentrations of Cl-, SO(2-)4, NO(-)3, HCO(-)3, and PO(3-)4. Results showed that Se(VI) was rapidly removed during the corrosion of ZVI to iron oxyhydroxides (Fe(OH)). During the 16 h of the experiments, 100 and 56% of the added Se(VI) was removed in 10 mM Cl- and SO(2-)4 solutions under a closed contained system, respectively. Under an open condition, 100 and 93% of the added Se(VI) were removed in the Cl- and SO(2-)4 solutions, respectively. Analysis of Se species in ZVI-Fe(OH) revealed that selenite [Se(IV)] and nonextractable Se increased during the first 2 to 4 h of reaction, with a decrease of Se(VI) in the Cl- experiment and no detection of Se(VI) in the SO(2-)4 experiment. Two mechanisms can be attributed to the rapid removal of Se(VI) from the solutions. One is the reduction of Se(VI) to Se(IV), followed by rapid adsorption of Se(IV) to Fe(OH). The other is the adsorption of Se(VI) directly to Fe(OH), followed by its reduction to Se(IV). The results also show that there was little effect on Se(VI) removal in the presence of Cl- (5, 50, and 100 mM), NO(-)3 (1, 5, and 10 mM), SO(2-)4 (5 mM), HCO(-)3 (1 and 5 mM), or PO(3-)4 (1 mM) and only a slight effect in the presence of SO(2-)4 (50 and 100 mM), HCO(-)3 (10 mM), and PO(3-)4 (5 mM) during a 2-d experiment, whereas 10 mM PO(3-)4 significantly inhibited Se(VI) removal. This work suggests that ZVI may be an effective agent to remove Se from Se-contaminated agricultural drainage water.     

Integrating fisheries into the national development plans of Small Island Developing States (SIDS): Ten years on from Barbados

The development and effective introduction of strategies designed to ensure the ecologically and economically sustainable utilization of coastal and marine resources is perhaps the major challenge for Small Island Developing States (SIDS). In response, the 1994 Barbados Programme of Action (BPoA) called upon the SIDS to implement appropriate coastal and marine strategies and, crucially, ensure that such strategies were integrated into sustainable national development plans (NDPs). This article examines the extent to which contemporary NDPs and donor support programmes have incorporated the fisheries sector — arguably the most important coastal/marine resource for many SIDS — into such documents. Applying an assessment methodology, originally developed to identify levels of environmental mainstreaming within World Bank country assistance strategies to NDPs and donor support programmes, we are able to identify those SIDS who have most effectively integrated the fisheries sector into such documents. Comparison with data indicating the importance of the sector to the national economy (in terms of generating foreign exchange, employment generation and/or supporting domestic protein consumption levels) enables us to pinpoint those countries with substantial fisheries sectors, but a correspondingly lower than expected degree of sectoral mainstreaming. We suggest that the January 2005 review of the BPoA offers an opportune moment for such countries to redress these omissions.     

Spatial variability of soil phosphorus in relation to the topographic index and critical source areas: sampling for assessing risk to water quality

A measure of soil P status in agricultural soils is generally required for assisting with prediction of potential P loss from agricultural catchments and assessing risk for water quality. The objectives of this paper are twofold: (i) investigating the soil P status, distribution, and variability, both spatially and with soil depth, of two different first-order catchments; and (ii) determining variation in soil P concentration in relation to catchment topography (quantified as the "topographic index") and critical source areas (CSAs). The soil P measurements showed large spatial variability, not only between fields and land uses, but also within individual fields and in part was thought to be strongly influenced by areas where cattle tended to congregate and areas where manure was most commonly spread. Topographic index alone was not related to the distribution of soil P, and does not seem to provide an adequate indicator for CSAs in the study catchments. However, CSAs may be used in conjunction with soil P data for help in determining a more "effective" catchment soil P status. The difficulties in defining CSAs a priori, particularly for modeling and prediction purposes, however, suggest that other more "integrated" measures of catchment soil P status, such as baseflow P concentrations or streambed sediment P concentrations, might be more useful. Since observed soil P distribution is variable and is also difficult to relate to nationally available soil P data, any assessment of soil P status for determining risk of P loss is uncertain and problematic, given other catchment physicochemical characteristics and the sampling strategy employed.