An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and the Accelerated Introduction of Advanced Energy Technologies - An Application of MiniCAM 1.0

We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO₂ and CH₄ in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.     

Fish in larger shoals find food faster

Summary Experiments on shoaling cyprinids hunting for food on patches in tanks demonstrate and advantage of foraging in a group. Individual goldfish (Carassius auratus) and minnows (Phoxinus phoxinus) in a shoal of conspecifics located food more rapidly as shoal size increased from 2 to 20. although shoaling minnows form polarised schools more readily than goldfish, which rarely do so, both species benefited from the trend of speedier food location with increasing group size.     

A risk-balancing trade off between foraging rewards and predation hazard in a shoaling fish

Summary In controlled experiments, shoaling European minnows fed in equal numbers on two equally-rewarded food patches, and likewise on unequal patches the numbers feeding reflected food levels. For equal food, minnows did not feed at the patch where they had encountered a simulated diving avian predator, whereas they chose to feed at this risky patch when it was more valuable. By avoiding hazard for equal food, but accepting predator risk for higher food rewards, the minnows performed a risk-balancing trade-off.     

A first record of daytime surface swarming by Euphausia lucens in the Southern Benguela region

On 9 October, 1985 a daytime surface swarm of the euphausiid Euphausia lucens was observed and sampled in St. Helena Bay in the Southern Benguela region. The swarm was monospecific, consisted of adults in prebreeding condition and appeared to be feeding on detrital material. The swarm covered an estimated 46 ha, densities within it ranged between 4 000 and 1 500 000 individuals per cubic metre and the swarm was estimated to contain 5 000 tonnes of euphausiids. No simple explanation for the presence of the swarm was apparent.     

Delayed onset of vocal recognition in Australian sea lion pups (Neophoca cinerea)

In pinnipeds, maternal care strategies and colony density may influence a species’ individual recognition system. We examined the onset of vocal recognition of mothers by Australian sea lion pups (Neophoca cinerea). At 2 months of age, pups responded significantly more to the calls of their own mothers than alien female calls demonstrating a finely tuned recognition system. However, newborn pups did not respond differentially to the calls of their mother from alien female calls suggesting that vocal recognition had not yet developed or is not yet expressed. These findings are in stark contrast to other otariid species where pups learn their mother’s voice before their first separation. Variance in colony density, pup movements, and natal site fidelity may have reduced selective pressures on call recognition in young sea lions, or alternatively, another sensory system may be used for recognition in the early stage of life.     

A systematic review of snake translocations to identify potential tactics for reducing postrelease effects

Advancements in the field of reintroduction biology are needed, but understanding of how to effectively conduct translocations, particularly with snakes, is lacking. We conducted a systematic review of snake translocation studies to identify potential tactics for reducing postrelease effects. We included studies on intentional, human-mediated, wild–wild, or captive–wild translocations to any location, regardless of motive or number of snakes translocated. Only studies that presented results for at least 1 of 4 outcomes (movement behavior, site fidelity, survival, or population establishment) were included. We systematically searched 4 databases for published studies and used 5 methods to search the gray literature. Our search and screening criteria yielded 121 data sources, representing 130 translocation cases. We quantified the association between 15 translocation tactics and short-term translocation outcomes by calculating odds ratios and used forest plots to display results. Snake translocations involved 47 species (from mainly 2 families), and most were motivated by research, were monitored for at least 6 months, occurred in North America, and took place from the 1990s onward. The odds of a positive snake translocation outcome were highest with release of captive reared or juvenile snakes, release of social groups together, delayed release, provision of environmental enrichment or social housing before release, or minimization of distance translocated. The odds of a positive outcome were lowest when snakes were released early in their active season. Our results do not demonstrate causation, but outcomes of snake translocation were associated with 8 tactics (4 of which were strongly correlated). In addition to targeted comparative studies, we recommend practitioners consider the possible influence of these tactics when planning snake translocations.     

Schooling mackerel and herring choose neighbours of similar size

Fish schooling in a submerged sea-cage swam next to neighbours of similar size. Between 57 and 74 fish were used. Extensive three-dimensional data showed the neighbour size effect for two different species, herring and mackerel, during both day and night. These experiments, covering sizes which coexist in the wild, are the first demonstration of the neighbour size choice in fish schools predicted by theories of hydrodynamic advantage.     

Reconstructing historical marine ecosystems using food web models: Northern British Columbia from Pre-European contact to present

Mass-balance trophic models (Ecopath with Ecosim) are developed for the marine ecosystem of northern British Columbia (BC) for the historical periods 1750, 1900, 1950 and 2000 AD. Time series data are compiled for catch, fishing mortality and biomass using fisheries statistics and literature values. Using the assembled dataset, dynamics of the 1950-based simulations are fitted to agree with observations over 50 years to 2000 through the manipulation of trophic flow parameters and the addition of climate factors: a primary production anomaly and herring recruitment anomaly. The predicted climate anomalies reflect documented environmental series, most strongly sea surface temperature and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index. The best-fit predator–prey interaction parameters indicate mixed trophic control of the ecosystem. Trophic flow parameters from the fitted 1950 model are transferred to the other historical periods assuming stationarity in density-dependent foraging tactics. The 1900 model exhibited an improved fit to data using this approach, which suggests that the pattern of trophic control may have remained constant over much of the last century. The 1950 model is driven forward 50 years using climate and historical fishing drivers. The resulting ecosystem is compared to the 2000 model, and the dynamics of these models are compared in a predictive forecast to 2050. The models suggest similar restoration trajectories after a hypothetical release from fishing.     

The effectiveness of marine reserve systems constructed using different surrogates of biodiversity

Biological sampling in marine systems is often limited, and the cost of acquiring new data is high. We sought to assess whether systematic reserves designed using abiotic domains adequately conserve a comprehensive range of species in a tropical marine inter‐reef system. We based our assessment on data from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We designed reserve systems aiming to conserve 30% of each species based on 4 abiotic surrogate types (abiotic domains; weighted abiotic domains; pre‐defined bioregions; and random selection of areas). We evaluated each surrogate in scenarios with and without cost (cost to fishery) and clumping (size of conservation area) constraints. To measure the efficacy of each reserve system for conservation purposes, we evaluated how well 842 species collected at 1155 sites across the Great Barrier Reef seabed were represented in each reserve system. When reserve design included both cost and clumping constraints, the mean proportion of species reaching the conservation target was 20–27% higher for reserve systems that were biologically informed than reserves designed using unweighted environmental data. All domains performed substantially better than random, except when there were no spatial or economic constraints placed on the system design. Under the scenario with no constraints, the mean proportion of species reaching the conservation target ranged from 98.5% to 99.99% across all surrogate domains, whereas the range was 90–96% across all domains when both cost and clumping were considered. This proportion did not change considerably between scenarios where one constraint was imposed and scenarios where both cost and clumping constraints were considered. We conclude that representative reserve systems can be designed using abiotic domains; however, there are substantial benefits if some biological information is incorporated.