Policy sciences contributions to analysis to promote sustainability

The policy sciences, in offering the most comprehensive approach to policy analysis and the sociopolitical processes that shape policy outcomes, is particularly appropriate for guiding the analysis required to promote sustainability. This article presents the main components of the policy sciences framework and demonstrates its potency in the crucial task of deepening the problem definitions required to select and enact policies to promote sustainability. As such, it provides background for the policy sciences articles of this special feature.

Thyroid disruption at birth due to prenatal exposure to beta-hexachlorocyclohexane

OBJECTIVE: Thyroid hormones play an important role in human brain development, and some organochlorine compounds (OCs) act as thyroid disruptors. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the association between prenatal exposure to organochlorine compounds and thyroid function in newborns from a general population birth cohort in Menorca, with an a-priori specific focus on beta-HCH. METHODS: Levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB congeners 28, 52, 101, 118, 138, 153 and 180), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), beta-hexachlorocyclohexane (beta-HCH), dichlorodiphenyl dichloroethylene (p'p'-DDE) and dichlorodiphenyl trichloroethane (p'p-DDT) in cord serum, and thyrotropin (TSH) concentration in plasma three days after birth were measured in 387 newborns from Menorca. The TSH concentration was categorized (high or low), except for 27 children whose TSH levels were quantified. RESULTS: Levels of beta-HCH and PCB-153 were positively related to TSH concentrations (gestational age-adjusted coefficient (p-value): 0.26 (p = 0.006) and 0.31 (p = 0.050), respectively). CONCLUSIONS: beta-HCH is potentially a new thyroid disrupting compound, deserving special interest in future studies given its high body burden in humans.     

A new approach to quantifying and comparing vulnerability to drought

In this study we develop an “inference modeling” approach to compare and analyze how different disciplines (economics, political science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology) estimate vulnerability to drought. It is thought that a better understanding of these differences can lead to a synthesis of insights from the different disciplines and eventually to more comprehensive assessments of vulnerability. The new methodology consists of (1) developing inference models whose variables and assertions incorporate qualitative knowledge about vulnerability, (2) converting qualitative model variables into quantitative indicators by using fuzzy set theory, (3) collecting data on the values of the indicators from case study regions, (4) inputting the regional data to the models and computing quantitative values for susceptibility. The methodology was applied to three case study regions (in India, Portugal and Russia) having a range of socio-economic and water stress conditions. In some cases the estimates of susceptibility were surprisingly similar, in others not, depending on the factors included in the disciplinary models and their relative weights. A new approach was also taken to testing vulnerability parameters by comparing estimated water stress against a data set of drought occurrences based on media analysis. The new methodologies developed in this paper provide a consistent basis for comparing differences between disciplinary perspectives, and for identifying the importance of the differences.

“地球工程”作为减缓气候变化手段的几个关键问题

减缓气候变化可以在大的地理尺度上以工程技术手段来实施。地球工程包括所有能源生产和消费以外的、不涉及工业生产过程管理的,在较大的地球尺度或规模上,去除大气中的CO2或直接控制太阳辐射而降温的各种人为的工程技术手段,主要包括三大类:绿色生物技术手段、碳捕获与埋存技术和太阳光辐射额度控制管理技术。这一类地球工程手段有着一系列经济、技术、环境、伦理、安全和不确定性含义。本文就近年来国际上关于地球工程作为减缓气候变化可能技术选择的几个关键问题开展了分析和讨论,涉及概念界定、技术特点、可能影响、治理构架等。作者认为,对于直接作用于碳的地球工程手段,如绿色生物技术手段和碳捕获与埋存技术,风险小、可操控;太阳光辐管理技术,通过人为排放到大气的SO2和气溶胶等的降温效应,来控制地球气温的上升,尽管使用的经济成本可能不高,具有实际操作可能,但其巨大的不确定性和可能的安全含义,需要引起足够的重视。从伦理上看,当代人是否有权来开展太阳光辐管理技术这类具有巨大科学不确定性的地球工程存在争议,在科学不确定的情况下采取任何行动,就失去了伦理学基础。从法律上看,人工干预太阳辐射,即使是科学实验或研究,由于其影响超出了国界,超出了当代人,也超出了人类社会,如果有人采取行动,也存在法律依据上的质疑。人工干预太阳辐射的研究和实施,需要一个国际治理构架。为了防止其他国家单独行动,需要"相互约束"的治理构架——"自我约束"以换取他国同意"自我约束"。鉴于气候变化和光辐管理在科学上的不确定性,目前不宜实施,短期内也不会提上议事日程。太阳光辐管理技术影响的复杂性和气候变化风险的迫切性,需要我们加大科学研究力度,为科学决策提供依据。中国作为一个新兴经济体,世界第一大CO2排放国,地域空间气候条件存在巨大差异性。从减排成本的角度,从气候影响的空间差异性,开展地球工程的科学研究,有着科学、政策和国际气候外交的积极意义。但是,相关的科学研究需要国际制度构架。由于气候变化框架公约及其谈判尚未涉及,需要开展系统科学、技术、经济、法律和国家安全等方面的相关研究,提高科学认知度,为国际谈判和政策选择提供决策依据。     

全球CO_2排放研究趋势及其对我国的启示

近几年,全球气候变暖已经成为国际社会的共识,由此而引发的温室气体减排计划也陆续在主要发达国家开始实施,有关CO_2排放问题的研究也成为全球的学术焦点.通过对全球CO_2排放研究趋势的总结发现:首先,国际社会有关CO_2排放的核算方法不断完善,从IPCC(1995)到IPCC(2006),内容更加完善,方法更趋合理;其次,排放责任的区分日益公平合理,随着"碳转移"和"碳泄露"问题研究的深入,有关排放责任区分方法的研究逐渐在从生产视角向消费视角转变;第三,排放因素分解逐步深入,分解公式包括KAYA公式和投入产出公式,分解方法从指数法到平均对数法再到微积分法,分解模型日趋成熟和多元化;第四,排放预测模型也不断综合化、长期化,自上而下模型和自下而上模型逐渐相互借鉴和融合.在此基础上,笔者对我国CO_2排放研究提出了几点启发,即加快排放因子数据库建设,重视责任排放和结构分析研究,提高自主建模的水平和完善我国技术环境数据库等.以期提高我国对温室气体排放现状和历史的认识,在国际气候变化领域发挥积极的作用.     

How to assess exposure of aquatic organisms to manufactured nanoparticles?

Ecological risk of chemicals is measured by the quotient of predicted no-effect concentrations and predicted exposure concentrations, which are hard to assess for manufactured nanomaterials (NMs). This paper proposes modifications to currently used models, in order to make them suitable for estimating exposure concentrations of NMs in the aquatic environment. We have evaluated the adequacy of the current guidance documents for use with NMs and conclude that nano-specific fate processes, such as sedimentation and dissolution need to be incorporated. We have reviewed the literature on sedimentation and dissolution of NMs in environmentally relevant systems. We deduce that the overall kinetics of water-sediment transport of NMs should be close to first order. The lack of data on dissolution of NMs under environmentally realistic conditions calls for a pragmatic decision on which rates to be used in modeling. We find that first order removal kinetics for dissolution seems adequate. Based on limited data from literature, probable removal rates range from 0 to 10(-4)s(-1) for sedimentation, and from 0 to 10(-5)s(-1) for dissolution. Further experimental data at environmentally relevant conditions for sedimentation and dissolution of NMs is needed.     

Correction to: Opportunities to reduce nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea by improving manure use efficiency in agriculture

While progress has been made in reducing external nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea, further actions are needed to meet the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), especially for the Baltic Proper, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga sub-basins. We used the net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) nutrient accounting approach to construct three scenarios of reduced NANI-NAPI. Reductions assumed that manure nutrients were redistributed from areas with intense animal production to areas that focus on crop production and would otherwise import synthetic and mineral fertilizers. We also used the Simple as Necessary Baltic Long Term Large Scale (SANBALTS) model to compare eutrophication conditions for the scenarios to current and BSAP-target conditions. The scenarios suggest that reducing NANI-NAPI by redistributing manure nutrients, together with improving agronomic practices, could meet 54–82% of the N reductions targets (28–43 kt N reduction) and 38–64% P reduction targets (4–6.6 kt P reduction), depending on scenario. SANBALTS output showed that even partial fulfillment of nutrient reduction targets could have ameliorating effects on eutrophication conditions. Meeting BSAP targets will require addressing additional sources, such as sewage. A common approach to apportioning sources to external nutrients loads could enable further assessment of the feasibility of eutrophication management targets.

     

Ecological issues related to N deposition to natural ecosystems: research needs

There has and continues to be concern about the effects of elevated nitrogen (N) deposition on natural ecosystems. In this paper, research on natural ecosystems, including wetlands, heathlands, grasslands, steppe, naturally regenerated forests and deserts, is evaluated to determine what is known about nitrogen cycling in these ecosystems, the effects of elevated nitrogen on them and to identify research gaps. Aquatic ecosystems are not included in this review, except as they are part of the larger ecosystem. Research needs fall into several categories: (1) improved understanding and quantification of the N cycle, particularly relatively unstudied processes such as dry deposition, N fixation and decomposition/mineralization; (2) carbon cycling as affected by increased N deposition; (3) effects on arid ecosystems and other "neglected" ecosystems; (4) effects on complex ecosystems and interactions with other pollutants; (5) indicators and assessment tools for natural ecosystems.     

Using GRADE to respond to health questions with different levels of urgency

Increasing interest exists in applying the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach to environmental health evidence. While ideally applied to evidence synthesized in systematic reviews and corresponding summary tables, such as evidence profiles, GRADE's correct application requires that “the evidence that was assessed and the methods that were used to identify and appraise that evidence should be clearly described.” In this article, we suggest that GRADE could be applied to evidence assembled from narrative reviews, modelled (indirect) evidence, or evidence assembled as part of a rapid response, if the underlying judgments about the certainty in this evidence are based on the relevant GRADE domains and provided transparently. Health questions that require assessing the certainty in a body of evidence to provide trustworthy answers may range from hours, to days or weeks, to a few months to scenarios that allow assessing evidence without short-term time pressures. Time frames of emergent, urgent or rapid evidence assessments will often require relying on existing summaries or rapidly compiling the available evidence and making assessments. Even without available full systematic reviews, expressing the certainty in the evidence can provide useful guidance for users of the evidence and those who evaluate certainty in effects. The ratings also help clarifying disagreement between organizations tackling similar questions about the evidence. Using the structured GRADE domains, narrative or other summaries of the evidence can be presented transparently.     

A gender approach to understanding the differentiated impact of barriers to adaptation: responses to climate change in rural Ethiopia

While adaptation has received a fair amount of attention in the climate change debate, barriers to adaptation are the focus of a more specific, recent discussion. In this discussion, such barriers are generally treated as having a uniform, negative impact on all actors. However, we argue that the precise nature and impact of such barriers on different actors has so far been largely overlooked. Our study of two drought-prone communities in rural Ethiopia sets out to examine how female- and male-headed households adapt to climate change, particularly focusing on how a variety of barriers influence the choice of adaptation measures to varying extents. To this purpose, we built a conceptual framework based on the Sustainable Livelihood Approach. Data were collected using semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with male- and female-headed households, community leaders and local extension workers. Our findings suggest that gender-based differences in the choice of adaptation measures at the household level are driven by cultural, social, financial and institutional barriers. Barriers to adaptation—particularly when interacting—have a differentiated impact upon different actors. This outcome hints at the need for donors and policymakers to develop intervention strategies that are sensitive to this fact.     

Obstetrical outcomes and biomarkers to assess exposure to phthalates: A review

Studies of the effects on pregnancy outcomes of in utero exposure to phthalates, contaminants that are widely present in the environment, have yielded conflicting results. In addition, the mode of assessment of exposure varies between studies. The aim of this review was therefore to establish a current state of knowledge of the phthalates and metabolites involved in unfavorable pregnancy outcomes. Extant data were analyzed to determine which biomarker is the best suited to assess the relation between in utero exposure to phthalates and pregnancy outcomes.This review of the literature was conducted using the database of PubMed. A search was made of studies investigating exposure to phthalates and the following birth outcomes: preterm birth (gestational age < 37 weeks), change in gestational age, change in body size at birth (birth weight, length, head circumference), anti-androgenic function, decreased anogenital distance, cryptorchidism, hypospadias and congenital malformation. The methodological approach adopted in each study was examined, in particular the methods used for exposure assessment (biomarkers and/or questionnaire).Thirty-five studies were included. Premature birth and decreased anogenital distance were the most commonly reported outcomes resulting from a moderate level of exposure to phthalates. The principal metabolites detected and involved were primary metabolites of di-2(ethylhexyl)-phthalate (DEHP) and di-n-butyl-phthalate (DnBP). No clear conclusion could be drawn with regard to gestational age at birth, body size at birth and congenital malformations. In epidemiological studies, maternal urine is the most suitable matrix to assess the association between in utero exposure to phthalates and pregnancy outcomes: in contrast to other matrices (cord blood, amniotic fluid, meconium and milk), sampling is easy, non-invasive and, can be repeated to assess exposure throughout pregnancy. Oxidative metabolites are the most relevant biomarkers since they are not prone to external contamination.Further epidemiological studies are required during pregnancy to i) determine the role of phthalates other than DEHP [currently replaced by various substitution products, in particular diisononyl-phthalate (DiNP)]; ii) establish the effect of phthalates on other outcomes (body size adjusted for gestational age, and congenital malformations); iii) determine the pathophysiological pathways; and iv) identify the most suitable time for biomarker determination of in utero exposure to phthalates.     

Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution

Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts.     

Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Resilience of stocking capacity to changing climate in arid to Mediterranean landscapes

Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future.     

Generic approaches to transfer

A review of methods which have been used to describe and predict transfer of radionuclides in biota was undertaken. The intent was to identify approaches that might prove useful in extending predictive estimates to other organisms and environments. Empirical approaches, such as found in the use of transfer factors, were examined. Kinetic methodologies were also presented. Allometric functions, with their ability to make broad generalizations, were also discussed. Data from several earlier radioecological assessments were tested for their potential utility in developing allometric relationships, with the result implying that such an approach might prove useful.     

Morphological and biological features of plants related to their adaptation to coastal habitats

The results of studies on the biomorphological features of 22 plant species growing on the southern coast of the Russian Far East provide evidence for the diversity of pathways of their adaptation to stressful habitat conditions. An analysis of the anatomical and mesostructural characteristics of their leaves has revealed representatives of euhalophytes, crinohalophytes, and glycohalophytes among these plants. Adaptation is achieved by means of halomorphosis, haloxerophytism, and development of some heliophilic features accounted for by species-specific manifestations of succulence, the presence of salt excreting trichomes, and thick pubescence. The similarity of these adaptations to those of desert plants is discussed. Along with plants characterized by a high germination rate, species that counterbalance a low efficiency of seed reproduction by active vegetative propagation have also successfully established themselves on the coast. Adaptation to coastal habitats is also achieved due to the diversity of life forms characterized mainly by tap root systems with laterally extending branch roots, creeping shoots, and a high vegetative mobility.     

Application of fuzzy models to assess susceptibility to droughts from a socio-economic perspective

By combining the concepts of environmental stress, state susceptibility and environmental crisis, “Security Diagram” (SD) provides a quantitative approach to assessing environmental change and human security. The SD is a tool that clearly presents in a diagram the security situation of a population or region affected by a particular environmental crisis. Its underlying concept emphasises that the higher the level of environmental stress and socio-economic susceptibility, the higher the probability of the occurrence of crisis. Focusing on drought, this study analyses the susceptibility of case study regions in India, Portugal, and Russia from a socio-economic perspective. A conceptual framework of socio-economic susceptibility is developed based on the economic development theories of modernisation and dependency. Fuzzy set theory is used to generate susceptibility indices from a range of national and sub-national indicators, including financial resources, agricultural dependency and infrastructure development (for economic susceptibility), and health condition, educational attainment and gender inequality (for social susceptibility). Results indicate that socio-economic susceptibility over the period 1980–1995 was highest in India, followed by Russia and (since 1989) lowest in Portugal. Globalisation is likely to contribute to changes in the level of socio-economic susceptibility over time. Moreover, specific social and economic structures unique in each country (e.g., the role of women in society in India, the socialist legacy in Russia) may explain differences in susceptibility between the case study regions.

农户参与生态补偿行为意愿影响因素分析

长期以来,资源无限、环境无价的观念根深蒂固地存在于人们的思维中,也渗透在社会和经济活动的体制和政策中.随着生态环境破坏的加剧和生态系统服务功能的研究,使人们更为深入地认识到生态环境的价值.而"生态补偿"是促进生态环境保护的一种经济手段,农户参与生态补偿的意愿既受到主观因素和非主观因素的影响,也受到理性和非理性因素的作用,是多因素综合影响的结果,其中内部因素即家庭生计资本.本文以黑河流域中游为例,选取300户随杌样本,分析了农户参与生态补偿的意愿与生计资本的关系研究,结果表明:自然资本对农户参与生态补偿的意愿形成星负面影响作用,人力资本、物质资本、金融资本和社会资本对农户参与生态补偿的意愿形成正面影响作用.这说明,农户在市场经济条件下正在变得越来越理性,他们参与生态补偿的核心在于最大化地获取经济利益,政府要一方面尽可能地降低农户实施生态补偿后的各种风险因素,另一方面,要尽可能地提高农户承担生态补偿风险的能力.     

Modelling tritium flux from water to atmosphere: application to the Loire River

Tritium (³H or T) is one of the major radionuclides released by nuclear power plants (NPP) into rivers. However, tritiated water (HTO) flux from water to air is seldom considered when assessing health effects of such releases. The aim of this paper is to present the result of a research program, called LORA, conducted on the Loire River (France). To improve our understanding of HTO flux from surface water to air, three field campaigns were organised during the NPP’s radioactive releases to measure simultaneously the activity concentrations in air on the riverbank, using an innovative system, and in river water. The measurements showed that during radioactive releases, water vapour was enriched in ³H. These results were used to calibrate exchange velocities. The average of these estimated exchange velocities was more than one order of magnitude higher than those calculated in the literature from indoor experiments. The variability of these values was also larger, showing that outdoor studies cover a wide range of conditions influencing HTO flux. No correlation was observed between exchanges velocities and meteorological conditions. However, there was a significant difference between day and night with a higher value observed during the day. Two approaches used to calculate HTO evaporation from water (i.e. the approach based on water evaporation and the approach considering that HTO follows its own concentration gradient) were included in a hydrodynamic model, which was used to evaluate HTO air activity along the Loire River. In conclusion, only the approach considering that HTO follows its own gradient led to a good agreement between measurements and predictions. A one-year simulation was done to estimate the contribution of this process to the dose. Its contribution can be considered as negligible in this case compared to the other pathways such as ingestion of water or foodstuffs.     

Approaches to Quantitative Assessment of Biological Damage to Forest Communities under Technogenic Load

General trends in simplification of the structure and composition of forest communities in the zone of impact from the metallurgical industry are revealed. The load of toxicants is estimated from the concentrations of heavy metals in the snow and soil. The method is proposed for assessing biological damage on the basis of the main characteristics of phytocenosis, such as its species diversity and the cenotic significance of its structural components. The resultant integrated index of phytocenosis preservation (IIP _p) characterizes the degree of biological damage, and its value depends on the load of toxicants and resistance of plant communities characteristic of different natural zones.