A Simple Discussion on the Supply and Demand of Water Resources in the Western Region of China

Abstract

We are accustomed to solve the problem of the water scarcity in the western region by the thought of increasing the effective supply of water to meet the needs of Go-west Campaign. After introducing the dynamic equilibrium principle on supply and demand in economy, we find that we should solve the problem of the water scarcity in the western region through reducing total demand to achieve the dynamic equilibrium of supply and demand. Finally water resources in the western region can be enlarged by an accumulated way.     

变革中的中国水资源管理

水资源短缺是世界面临的共同危机,是制约国民经济健康稳定发展的重要“瓶颈”,水资源的可持续利用已经成为经济社会可持续发展的基础性、战略性问题.缓解水资源供需矛盾的关键是加强水资源的管理.文章回顾了中国水资源管理制度的发展演变历程:只管工程的非正式水资源管理、行政命令为主的正式制度萌芽、取水许可管理和基于水权的正规制度管理等四个阶段.尽管在确立以流域管理和区域管理相结合的综合管理体制,建立以水量分配、取水许可、水资源论证为主要内容的水权管理制度和以全成本核算为原则的水价管理制度等方面成绩显著,水资源管理中仍存在水资源权属不清、水环境权得不到保障等问题.今后中国水资源改革,首先应继续深化水权改革,推动水权明晰化,建立水权交易制度；其次,健全水环境权的法律法制规范,提供相关的法律保障；最后,完善部门间的合作协调机制,真正实现对水的协同管理.     

Quantitative modeling of freshwater stress in the nine water basins of Tanzania

Freshwater scarcity is a global issue of environmental concern that threatens agricultural production and human health. In this study, we established freshwater stress indices (WSIs) for the nine water basins of Tanzania by using the quantity of freshwater available and various water uses. The relationship between water availability and different water uses, including environmental water requirements, was analyzed, with uncertainty and sensitivity analysis performed by a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Extreme WSI values close to 1.00 were obtained in the Rufiji, Pangani, and Wami-ruvu basins, Internal drainage, and Lake Rukwa, while low and moderate WSI values ranging from 0.03 to 0.84 were found in Lake Victoria and the Ruvuma, Tanganyika, and Nyasa basins. This study adds further knowledge on the level of freshwater scarcity, relationships between water availability and different water uses, and suggests policy options to reduce freshwater scarcity at the basin level for sustainable water supply.     

甘肃河西内陆河流域社会化水资源稀缺评价

水资源稀缺是我国经济社会发展所面临的严重制约因素。水资源稀缺评价是水资源管理中最基础性的工作。借助Karshenas模型对资源利用同经济发展之间的关系进行了诠释；在界定水资源管理阶段的基础上。引入社会适应性能力概念。着重论述了其内在结构及其度量指标。从而将水资源稀缺问题拓展到了社会经济领域。强调社会资源在水资源稀缺评价中的作用。同时。建立社会化水资源稀缺指数。并以甘肃省河西内陆河流域五市为例进行了实证研究．结果表明：嘉峪关市由于相对较高的社会适应性能力。其社会化水资源稀缺程度指数的相对排序得到改善；而武威市则因相对较低的社会适应性能力。社会化水资源稀缺指数的排序有所降低；金昌市和张掖市尽管社会化水资源稀缺指数的相对排序没有变化。但由于考虑了社会适应性能力。水资源稀缺程度得到有效的缓解。社会化水资源稀缺指数更能如实反映水资源状况。社会适应性能力是一种重要的资源。对缓解水资源紧缺程度具有重要的作用。     

水-粮食贸易:虚拟水研究进展

虚拟水思想强调的是水资源贡献，量化计算是其深入研究的基本，而是否选择虚拟水作为战略政策，应该考虑由不同国家的资源贡献和生产技术决定的比较利益。社会调适能力要求社会针对资源的第一性缺乏做相应调适并谋求解决手段，以提高资源管理能力。为此，需要结合我国的水和粮食安全问题，提出用虚拟水贸易解决我国水资源和粮食问题，提高我国对水资源缺乏的调适能力。     

湿润地区的城市缺水问题

本文根据广东省城市供水的情况，指出在温润地区也存在相当严重的缺水问题，同时也分析了水资源时空分布不均、不源污染、城市给水设施建设滞后和用水浪费等造成缺水的主要原因。     

虚拟水贸易的可计算非线性动态投入产出分析模型

虚拟水是水资源需求管理的创新领域。投入产出法是研究虚拟水的重要方法,但既有研究多以线性静态投入产出模型为主,存在较强的比例性假设,在解释现实经济活动中的虚拟水贸易时存在一定缺陷和不足。为更加贴近现实状况,本文利用可计算一般均衡(CGE)思想,设计了一种新的虚拟水测算思路,对传统的线性静态投入产出模型进行了非线性和动态化的拓展,旨在对区域经济系统中的虚拟水贸易进行更加科学合理的计算和考察。首先,参照国家统计机构常用的42产业部门划分方式,根据一般均衡理论,围绕区域经济系统的生产模块、价格模块和供需平衡模块三个部分,定义有关变量和参数,对区域经济系统非线性动态投入产出模型进行了详细的方程列写。在此基础上,将虚拟水流动的因素与一般形式的非线性动态投入产出模型进行嵌套,采用"母表"(价值型流量表)和"子表"(水资源流量表)相结合的形式,给出了一种全新的区域水资源投入产出表的设计思路与编制方法,将可计算非线性动态产出模型从一般形式扩展至水资源领域,构建了区域经济系统中虚拟水贸易的可计算非线性动态投入产出分析框架。分析同时指出,通过对该模型进行求解,可以推导和计算平衡增长路径和最优增长路径下的区域经济系统产出结构和用水结构,并可结合虚拟水贸易对区域经济的作用机理,分析最优增长路径下实施虚拟水贸易对区域经济增长的贡献。     

Integrated Water and CGE Model of the Impacts of Water Policy on the Beijing's Economy and Output

The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on rules of water supply and demand,evaluating water resources,building water resources input and output table,establishing water computable general equilibrium model and stimulating water policy.The stimulation gives a scenario that increases water price by 10%.The result shows the following aspects.First,water resources policy infects gross domestic product and industry output in different ways.There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy.Agriculture industry has the same tendency as water price change and it has more sensitive to water quantity than to water price.For basic energy industries such as oil and chemistry and gas,they show diversity tendency.As to some high water consumer industry such as paper and textile etc.,water resource economic policy can infect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology.Waste water and construction and service industries show the same tendency as to water policy.Second,government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration.The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer price change more than expect as to water policy in a free market economic in water industry.So as to a government policy maker,one should be more carefully and prepare suitable forecast and plan to water policy and its negative impact.     

总量控制约束下区域用水结构调控策略及动态模拟

在既定水资源供给下,通过调控区域用水结构,提高用水效率与效益,使经济社会发展与用水总量限制的水资源约束相适应,是目前区域经济社会发展面临与亟待解答的关键科学问题。选择若干指标定量描述用水系统与社会经济系统耦合关系的基础上,以国民经济部门划分和用水主体划分相结合的方式,细化第一、二、三产业、生活和生态用水指标,建立了江苏省用水结构与产业结构、用水需求与经济社会发展指标互动反馈的模拟调控的系统动力学模型。在对当前发展模式下的江苏省用水总量发展趋势模拟预测分析基础上,选择对系统影响显著的参数作为调控变量,设计了5种对比情景,动态模拟水资源供求变化和用水结构变化情况,提出了江苏省用水总量控制下用水结构调控方案和对策,为区域落实最严格水资源管理制度提供决策依据。     

Physical and Economic Sustainability of Water: New Approach Using the Case of the Big Lost River,Idaho

A new approach for evaluating water sustainability is introduced by comparing physical and economic sustainability. To achieve physical sustainability, water should be available in sufficient quantity and of good quality and used efficiently. The economic sustainability can be achieved by balancing between costs and values of water. The objectives of this study were to estimate the physical and economic sustainability of surface water in the Big Lost River, south–central Idaho. The study used a Bayesian network by building a graphical diagram of nodes representing all significant variables related with the sustainability, such as water demand, water quality, and the different costs and values of water. The study showed that the likelihood of the physical sustainability is less than that of the economic sustainability, which is attributed to the scarcity of water in the Big Lost River. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Establish the Long-effective Mechanism of Food Security in China

In despite of fluctuation in recent years, the grain yield in China has been increasing, which relieves the conflict between supply and demand and turns the situation of food security good. However, because of the rapid increase in food consumption, the conflicts of food quality and structure in the supply and demand equilibrium has become more and more obvious and the long-effective mechanism of food security has not been established yet. It is found that the factors affecting food security in China include the scarcity and dissipation of resources, farmers＇ low enthusiasm in planting grain crops and the inappropriateness of the emphasis and measures of macro-economic regulation and control. Therefore, the authors advance to optimize resources allocation, strengthen macro-economic regulation and control and policy stimulation and establish the mechanism of allocating grain production cost, to set up the long-effective mechanism of China food security and keep it stable in the long term.     

我国水资源需求量动力学预测及对策建议

水资源是社会经济发展的重要物质基础和不可替代的自然资源。要实现党的十六大提出的全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标,水资源是必不可少的支撑条件。通过动力学模型,对未来20年我国工业、农业和生活需水量及总需水量进行预测,预测结果表明：按方案1,到2022年我国需水量约为5 500亿m3,按方案2,需水量约为7 400亿m3。而到2022年全国供水能力可能达到6 500亿m3 左右,可供水量为6 100～6 500亿m3 。方案1的预测结果小于可供水量,但这种方案很难实现。方案2的预测结果大于可供水量,出现较大缺口,在GDP增加1%的情况下,需水量增加1 800亿m3 左右,这也是我们面对的现实问题。     

基于系统动力学的湖南省水资源供需系统模拟研究

运用系统分析的理论和方法,建立湖南省水资源供需系统模型,仿真模拟传统发展型、发展经济型、节水型、协调型等4种不同方案条件下,2010~2030年湖南省水资源供需变化趋势。结果表明：（1）随着经济发展和人口增长,水资源供需矛盾将日趋紧张;（2）在协调型模式下,水资源供应基本能够满足社会经济发展的需要,且用水效率最高,是湖南省水资源开发利用的最优方案;（3）为了实现节水型社会建设目标,还需完善用水管理、优化经济结构、加快水利建设、加大循环利用和环境整治,提高节水技术水平和水资源保障水平     

商洛市水资源供需分析及合理利用对策

随着人口增长和社会经济的发展，商洛市可利用的水资源已不能满足需水要求，供需矛盾更加尖锐。为了缓解商洛市水资源的供需紧张局面，在分析商洛市水资源开发利用程度的基础上，探讨了影响商洛市水资源开发的制约因素，主要包括供水工程供水能力不足、水污染严重及水资源利用效率低等原因，致使地区水资源不能有效地利用；以2005年为现状年，以2010和2020年为规划年，采用定额法对商洛市供需水量进行了预测，并对商洛市水资源进行了供需平衡分析，得出供水能力的不足是制约商洛市水资源供需平衡的关键；针对各制约因素，提出加快新修水源工程和供水工程建设、发展高效节水农业、建设节水城市及加大污水资源化等实现水资源供需平衡的有效对策，为商洛市的经济社会发展创造契机。     

Water Resource Potential in Northern India: Constraints and Analyses of Price and Non-Price Solutions

The paper examines the linkages between water depletion, continuous population growth and economic development viewed primarily as agricultural development. This is done within a framework of a dynamic simulation model of ecological-economic type over extended periods of time. It is found that intensive agriculture, driven by an increase in the cropping intensity as a result of increase in area under paddy crop, has led to an increased gap between the demand for and supply of water resources, in particular subsurface resources. The consequent fall in water table may lead to constraints in the use of water. This has strong inequity implications in the resource use as well as threats to future of agricultural development in the region. It is revealed that a mix of interventions based on price solutions, non-price solutions and institutional set up are decisive in bringing a sustainable development and use of resource. The paper concludes with emphasising the role of state/government in achieving the desired goal.     

基于AHP-LP法的南水北调中线水资源优化配置——以河北省受水区为例

水资源是不可替代的重要自然资源和战略性经济资源,水资源优化配置是解决水资源问题的重要手段.为促进区域水资源供需状况相对平衡,按可持续发展的要求,根据区域水资源优化配置的含义和南水北调河北省受水区的具体情况,以有限水资源综合效益最大为目标,考虑水源可供水量、用户需水量和水环境与经济系统协调发展等约束,采用层次分析法与线性规划法相结合的方法,建立了水资源优化配置模型,并对模型的目标函数、约束条件和主要参数确定进行了初步探讨.最后用该模型进行了南水北调河北省受水区2005年和2010年95%保证率下的水资源优化配置研究,并对求解结果进行了分析、评价及展望.结果表明,南水北调工程实施后,能够解决河北省受水区严重缺水的状况.     

Establish the Long-effective Mechanism of Food Security in China

Abstract

In despite of fluctuation in recent years, the grain yield in China has been increasing, which relieves the conflict between supply and demand and turns the situation of food security good. However, because of the rapid increase in food consumption, the conflicts of food quality and structure in the supply and demand equilibrium has become more and more obvious and the long-effective mechanism of food security has not been established yet. It is found that the factors affecting food security in China include the scarcity and dissipation of resources, farmers’ low enthusiasm in planting grain crops and the inappropriateness of the emphasis and measures of macro-economic regulation and control. Therefore, the authors advance to optimize resources allocation, strengthen macro-economic regulation and control and policy stimulation and establish the mechanism of allocating grain production cost, to set up the long-effective mechanism of China food security and keep it stable in the long term.     

基于AHP LP法的南水北调中线水资源优化配置

水资源是不可替代的重要自然资源和战略性经济资源，水资源优化配置是解决水资源问题的重要手段。为促进区域水资源供需状况相对平衡，按可持续发展的要求，根据区域水资源优化配置的含义和南水北调河北省受水区的具体情况，以有限水资源综合效益最大为目标，考虑水源可供水量、用户需水量和水环境与经济系统协调发展等约束，采用层次分析法与线性规划法相结合的方法，建立了水资源优化配置模型，并对模型的目标函数、约束条件和主要参数确定进行了初步探讨。最后用该模型进行了南水北调河北省受水区2005年和2010年95%保证率下的水资源优化配置研究，并对求解结果进行了分析、评价及展望。结果表明，南水北调工程实施后，能够解决河北省受水区严重缺水的状况。     

城市水源地建设中的水权交易理论与实践述评

水源地是城市水资源可持续供给的重要空间载体。伴随城市化的快建发展，城市水资源供求压力日起紧张，城市水源地在保障城市水资源可持续供给方面的作用日益突出。本文从城市化过程中的水资源需求变化出发，揭示水源地在城市可持续发展中的战略地位，评析我国水桓交易的理论研究进展，在此基础上提出我国城市水源地建设保护过程中水权交易的走势判断。     

湖北省关键生态系统服务供需状况的时空变化研究

生态系统服务是改善自然生态和维持土地可持续利用的关键。该文基于生态系统服务的供需视角，从时空两个维度量化了城市化过程中生态系统服务的赤字和盈余，据此提出土地优化利用建议。以湖北省为例，选取水源涵养、PM10去除、固碳和休闲娱乐4种生态系统服务，评估了2010~2015年湖北省生态系统服务供需的盈缺情况及演变过程，并测算其平衡阈值。结果表明：（1）除了水源涵养服务供给充足外，PM10去除、固碳和休闲娱乐服务均处于赤字状态；（2）水源涵养服务的供需趋向平衡，而PM10去除、固碳和休闲娱乐服务的供需差异逐步扩大；（3）各类生态系统服务的供需空间异质性较大；（4）生态系统服务供需达到平衡所要求的绿地比阈值普遍上升，建设用地比阈值普遍下降。上述研究对生态系统服务供需的直观量化，为优化土地管理提供了科学依据；建议湖北省应重点关注城市化过程中PM10去除和碳排放控制的问题，适度增加城市绿地，合理控制建设用地扩张。