金融危机以来我国制造业空间格局演变及转移态势研究

在产业转移及转型升级的背景下，制造业空间分布及转移逐渐成为地理学研究的热点。以2008、2016年我国制造业工业销售产值、从业人数为研究数据，应用区位熵、热点分析、锡尔系数、动态集聚指数等方法，对金融危机以来我国制造业空间格局演变及转移态势进行探究。研究发现：（1）我国制造业空间分布具有较强的时空异质性，劳动密集型与资本密集型制造业以及技术密集型与知识密集型制造业分别呈现“西密东疏”、“东密西疏”的空间分异格局，并且不同类型的制造业空间集聚态势也存在显著差异；（2）东部地区的烟草制品、化学纤维等制造业发展不平衡问题较为突出,对我国区域间与区域内制造业空间分布差异的影响较大，而中、西部地区则相对较小，但有逐渐扩大的趋势；（3）制造业转移的主体是劳动密集型与资本密集型制造业,转移的方向是从东部向中、西部地区，转移层次具有较高的梯度性。研究有助于丰富我国制造业空间分布及转移相关理论，为我国经济、产业高质量发展提供借鉴意义。     

环境安全的新挑战:经济全球化下环境污染转移

发达国家环境污染转移主要通过两种途径实现：一是产业投资转移，二是贸易转移。从国际环境污染转移的形式来看可能完全符合市场经济原则，但却明显具有不道德性和非持续性。本文基于环境安全面临现实挑战，简要分析了环境污染国际转移产生的途径与根源，并对我国在出口推动型的增长中如何不降低对外贸易的依赖程度而保持资源与环境的优化，提出了相应的可持续发展准则与对策。     

论农地制度创新与农业劳动力转移

建国以后我国农地制度经历了一段曲折的发展变迁过程，它一定程度上影响了我国农业劳动力转移、土地资源可持续利用和农村可持续发展。现行农地制度的某些缺陷又对我国农业劳动力转移形成了效率性、功能性、市场性制约。为此，我们应当立足于农地资源可持续利用的基本原则，构建农地财产权新框架，完善农村社会保障制度，培育起以农地承包权流转为主体的市场运行机制，有效地促进我国农业劳动力转移和农村经济可持续发展。     

渝鄂湘黔接壤贫困山区农村劳动力就业转移研究

渝鄂湘黔接壤地区是位居我国腹心的重要待开发贫困山区。农村劳动力严重过剩，就业转移问题；突出，１９９６年农村劳动力剩余量达８００～１０００万人，且呈增长趋势。到２０１０年，农村劳动力将达２２００万人，剩余量约达１２００～１４００万人，就业压力很大。本区农村劳动力就业转移应实行就地转移和输出转移双管齐下，其转移的主要领域包括商品农业、乡镇企业、生态经济经营型生态环境建设及劳务输出等。研究结果说明，上述     

新时期云南红河少数民族地区农村劳动力转移特征及其对新农村建设的影响

我国少数民族地区的经济社会可持续发展具有重要的经济、政治和社会意义。农村是少数民族地区发展的薄弱环节，更是我国实现全面小康以及建设社会主义新农村的难点所在。农村劳动力转移又是其中的关键问题之一。本文通过收集、整理农户调查年鉴、农户调查问卷，分析新时期云南红河少数民族地区农村劳动力转移特征。并进一步分析了农村劳动力转移对新农村建设的影响，在此基础上提出了相应的对策建议。结果表明，新时期云南红河少数民族地区农村劳动力转移有助于提高农民素质，提高农民收入，增强了社会主义新农村建设的发展主体，缓解农村人地关系紧张的矛盾，对社会主义新农村有重要作用。研究认为，发展少数民族地区教育事业、激发群众奋发向上的精神、推进基础设施建设、加强管理体制和制度创新有助于促进农村劳动力转移背景下的社会主义新农村建设。     

中国水产品质量安全与有机水产养殖探讨

随着中国水产养殖业的迅速发展。养殖水体环境污染、药物滥用等因素导致了常规水产品质量不断下降。有机水产养殖作为一种可持续发展模式。旨在实现水产健康安全养殖与生态环境保护的协调发展。是2l世纪中国水产健康养殖的发展方向和必然趋势。本文阐述了有机水产养殖的内涵和基本原则。探讨了中国有机水产养殖的兴起与发展现状。并就如何保证水产健康发展提出了若干建议。     

国际技术转移新趋势对中国环保产业“走出去”的启示

从国家战略性发展布局的高度,在深刻理解当代国际技术转移的过程和影响因素的基础上,重点分析了当前国际技术转移的新趋势,认为国际技术转移呈现来源多极化、渠道多元化、形式多样化等特点,亚太地区是国际技术转移的重要新兴市场,环保产业已成为国际技术转移重要领域之一。结合当前我国环保产业"走出去"现状,提出了推动我国环保技术国际转移的对策建议。     

快速城镇化地区生态用地演变及驱动力分析

基于高分辨率遥感影像、GIS和RS技术,利用转移矩阵、景观指数和地图叠加等方法系统分析了辛庄镇域生态用地演变的时空特征,并引入二项Logistic回归模型,选择到农村居民点的距离、到道路的距离、到河流水系的距离、到村镇中心的距离、人均GDP、人均工业总产值、人均农业总产值、人均收入、人口密度为驱动因子,对研究区主要类型生态用地变化的驱动力进行分析。结果表明:1991~2009年,辛庄镇生态用地空间结构和面积变化剧烈,总体上呈加速缩减趋势。其中,水田面积变化尤为明显,18a间累积减少1 806.61hm2;经济效益较高的水产养殖用地和园地规模有所增长,尤其是水产养殖用地,1991~2009年年均增长43.01hm2,长幅为93.26%。生态用地主要转移去向为水产养殖用地、居住用地和工业用地。生态用地总体上破碎化程度加剧,类型水平上,大体上呈现为破碎度加剧、景观形状日趋规则、优势度逐渐降低、聚集度日益增加的态势。各时段生态用地演变的主要驱动因子均为邻域因子,但随着时间的推移,社会经济因子对生态用地变化的解释效力逐渐增强。     

资本投入、耕地保护、技术进步与农村剩余劳动力转移

工业化对于一个国家或地区经济腾飞的重要性,已经被西方发达国家的经验和走过的道路所证实。在实现工业化的过程中,农村劳动力转移是世界各国都曾经或必将面对的重要课题。农村剩余劳动力转移既是我国实现持续经济增长必须面对的重大课题,也是解决我国"三农"问题的重要途径。本文的动态模型和基于1978-2008年中国数据的实证分析表明:较多的农村劳动力数量和较少的土地资源禀赋是促进我国农村剩余劳动力转移的原始动力和内在根本原因,而大量的农村劳动力转移到非农产业或城镇,使得农民耕种土地的积极性下降,农地荒芜现象严重,不利于农业的可持续发展,甚至会影响到我国的粮食安全;农业资本投入对农村劳动力转移数量影响显著,增加农业资本投入,既能促进农业的发展,又能促进我国农村劳动力转移;农业技术进步对农村剩余劳动力转移既有正效应,也有负效应,两个效应相互作用或抵消,使得农业技术进步对我国农村剩余劳动力的影响并不显著。本文的研究结论所蕴含的启示是,中国在选择经济发展路径时,应该考虑本国的要素禀赋结构,特别是要充分利用本国富裕的农村剩余劳动力资源。     

选择性转移、转移成本与中国城乡收入差距变动

本文通过构建由城镇正规、非正规与农村农业部门组成的农村劳动力择优向城镇转移情形下的三部门经济生产和分配模型,对我国20世纪90年代初期以来存在极强选择性和具有高昂转移成本下的城乡劳动力转移对我国城乡收入差距可能产生的影响进行了理论分析,并根据模型对影响进行了数值模拟实验。研究结果表明,农村劳动力的择优转移和转移成本会内生性地引致我国城乡收入差距的扩大。究其原因,主要在于农村中相对优质的劳动力进入到城镇就业,在给城镇居民带来更多回报率较高投资机会的同时,而农业则由于优质人力资本的流出而大大延滞了其发展速度,这种"一促一抑"、"一荣一损"的内在机制势必引致城乡收入差距的扩大,同时转移成本的存在会放大收入差距扩大的程度。进一步地,通过把劳动力选择性转移与随机转移和劣者淘汰不同情形下我国可能出现的城乡收入差距进行对比的反事实分析表明,20世纪90年代初期以来在我国农村大量劳动力不断向城镇转移就业的过程中,劳动力很强择优转移的特性在城乡收入差距进一步扩大中贡献了约1/3的份额,而往返流动的转移成本在城乡收入差距扩大中产生了大约1.2倍的乘数效应,这是本研究得到的两个重要量化结果。为了缩小我国城乡收入差距,文章建议要为农民工市民化创造便利条件,为城乡间资本要素自由流动提供便利渠道,需要将城镇化建设与新农村建设很好地结合,特别是要最大限度地释放农村经济社会发展的自身活力以让农村能人能够在当地更好地施展才干。     

长江河口近岸水体自然净化作用及其初步评价

按照水体的净化机理，结合长江口和上海滨岸带近岸水体的物理、化学和生物等因素的实际特征，对近岸水体的自然净化作用进行了阐述和分析。并在历史资料和实测资料基础上，就近岸水体的自然净化作用进行了评价。评价结果表明，因长江河口近岸水体存在较强的自然净化作用机制，近岸水体体的自然净化能力较强，环境容量较大，但由于污染物输入量的不断增加，部分岸段近岸水体的环境质量有逐渐下降的趋势；近岸水体的自然净化作用具有明显的季节性变化，长江口南岸水域洪水季节水体的自然净化作用比估水季节强，而杭州湾北岸水域的自然净化作用表现为相反的变化趋势，因此建议在近岸污水排放过程中应考虑近岸水体的净化能力，遵循水体的自然净化作用规律。     

Trends in landings of fish species potentially affected by climate change in Portuguese fisheries

Fisheries are an important source of food, with a high economic value and social significance. The present worrying situation of the world fisheries is the result of the interaction between different factors (e.g. climatic variations, natural oscillations, technological innovation), but the greatest challenges are overfishing and climate change. The species richness of the Portuguese coast is generally higher than that found in northern Europe and similar to that of the Mediterranean, since many species have their southern or northern distribution limits along the Portuguese coast. The zoogeographic importance of this latitudinal area has long been recognized, representing the transition between north-eastern Atlantic warm-temperate and cold-temperate regions, which makes the Portuguese coast an area of great sensitivity to the detection of climate change. Official landing data for commercial species that have the Portuguese coast as their distribution limit were analysed together with sea surface temperature for the period of 1927–2011. In general, landings of species with affinity for temperate waters presented a decreasing trend, whereas species with affinity for subtropical/tropical waters showed an increasing trend. These variations were associated with variation in temperature: lower landings of temperate species occurred mainly in warm years, whereas landings of subtropical/tropical species presented an opposite trend, with higher landings in warm years. Preparing for the impacts of climate change is crucial for the sustainability of fisheries. Management should take into consideration information about environmental factors that affect species distribution and abundance.     

Health risks from large-scale water pollution: trends in Central Asia

Limited data on the pollution status of spatially extensive water systems constrain health-risk assessments at basin-scales. Using a recipient measurement approach in a terminal water body, we show that agricultural and industrial pollutants in groundwater-surface water systems of the Aral Sea Drainage Basin (covering the main part of Central Asia) yield cumulative health hazards above guideline values in downstream surface waters, due to high concentrations of copper, arsenic, nitrite, and to certain extent dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). Considering these high-impact contaminants, we furthermore perform trend analyses of their upstream spatial-temporal distribution, investigating dominant large-scale spreading mechanisms. The ratio between parent DDT and its degradation products showed that discharges into or depositions onto surface waters are likely to be recent or ongoing. In river water, copper concentrations peak during the spring season, after thawing and snow melt. High spatial variability of arsenic concentrations in river water could reflect its local presence in the top soil of nearby agricultural fields. Overall, groundwaters were associated with much higher health risks than surface waters. Health risks can therefore increase considerably, if the downstream population must switch to groundwater-based drinking water supplies during surface water shortage. Arid regions are generally vulnerable to this problem due to ongoing irrigation expansion and climate changes.     

A practical application of Driscoll's equation for predicting the acid-neutralizing capacity in acidic natural waters equilibria with the mineral phase gibbsite

A practical application of Driscoll's equation for predicting the acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) in acidic waters equilibria with the mineral phase gibbsite is reported in this paper. Theoretical predication values of ANC are compared with the experimental data obtained from different literatures. The effect of aluminum (Al) on the value of ANC is investigated. It indicates that Al plays an important role in regulating the buffering effects in acidic natural waters. Failure to consider Al in acidic waters may bias assessment results in certain situations so as to overestimate the ANC values in response to increase in atmospheric deposition.     

Uranium-thorium disequilibrium in north-east Atlantic waters

In this paper we report and compare the concentrations of 234Th and 238U measured in surface and subsurface waters collected in the course of a sampling campaign in the north east Atlantic in June-July 1998. Dissolved 234Th concentrations in surface waters ranged from 5 to 20 Bq m(-3), showing a large deficiency relative to 238U concentrations (typically 42 Bq m-3). This disequilibrium is indicative of active 234Th scavenging from surface waters. Observed 234Th/238U activity ratios, together with corresponding 234Th particulate concentrations, were used to calculate mean residence times for 234Th with respect to scavenging onto particles (tau(diss)) and subsequent removal from surface waters (tau(part)). Residence times in the range 5-30 days were determined for tau(diss) and 4-18 days for tau(part) (n=14). In addition, ultrafiltration experiments at six stations in the course of the same expedition revealed that in north-east Atlantic surface waters a significant fraction (46+/-17%; n=6) of the thorium in the (operationally-defined) dissolved phase (<0.45 microm) is in colloidal form. These observations are consistent with the 'colloidal pumping' model in which it is assumed that 234Th is rapidly absorbed by colloidal particles, which then aggregate, albeit at a slower rate, into larger filterable particles. In essence, colloids act as intermediaries in the transition from the fully dissolved to the filter-retained (>0.45 microm) phase. Thus, the time (tau(c)) for fully dissolved 234Th to appear in the filter-retained fraction is dependent on the rate of colloidal aggregation. Here, we determined tau(c) values in the range 3-17 days.     

Source of radium in a well-water-augmented Florida lake

A study of the lake waters of Saddleback Lake, Florida was undertaken with the goal of determining the source of elevated radium activities in the lake. Four radium isotopes, (226)Ra, (228)Ra, (223)Ra and (224)Ra, were measured and activities of all the four radium isotopes were substantially greater in the well water used to augment the lake as compared to the lake waters. In the surface water, radium activities were highest close to the well used for augmentation in the initial sampling. Activities initially decreased with time after augmentation from the well ceased. The (223)Ra/(226)Ra activity ratio decreased during the first month of sampling and closely followed an exponential decay curve based on the (223)Ra decay constant. Trends in the activities and the (223)Ra/(226)Ra activity ratios support the conclusion that the well used to augment the lake was the dominant source of (223)Ra and (226)Ra to Saddleback Lake during this study. The (224)Ra/(226)Ra activity ratio did not follow the expected trend of exponential decay based on the (224)Ra decay constant. While the augmentation well supplied some (224)Ra, these results suggest that there must be an additional source of (224)Ra to the lake. The most likely additional source of (224)Ra appears to be the ingrowth of (224)Ra on the sediment within the lake from (228)Ra (via (228)Th).     

Human recreational exposure to antibiotic resistant bacteria in coastal bathing waters

Infections caused by antibiotic resistant bacteria (ARB) are associated with poor health outcomes and are recognised globally as a serious health problem. Much research has been conducted on the transmission of ARB to humans. Yet the role the natural environment plays in the spread of ARB and antibiotic resistance genes is not well understood. Antibiotic resistant bacteria have been detected in natural aquatic environments, and ingestion of seawater during water sports is one route by which many people could be directly exposed.The aim was to estimate the prevalence of resistance to one clinically important class of antibiotics (third-generation cephalosporins (3GCs)) amongst Escherichia coli in coastal surface waters in England and Wales. Prevalence data was used to quantify ingestion of 3GC-resistant E. coli (3GCREC) by people participating in water sports in designated coastal bathing waters. A further aim was to use this value to derive a population-level estimate of exposure to these bacteria during recreational use of coastal waters in 2012.The prevalence of 3GC-resistance amongst E. coli isolated from coastal surface waters was estimated using culture-based methods. This was combined with the density of E. coli reported in designated coastal bathing waters along with estimations of the volumes of water ingested during various water sports reported in the literature to calculate the mean number of 3GCREC ingested during different water sports.0.12% of E. coli isolated from surface waters were resistant to 3GCs. This value was used to estimate that in England and Wales over 6.3 million water sport sessions occurred in 2012 that resulted in the ingestion of at least one 3GCREC.Despite the low prevalence of resistance to 3GCs amongst E. coli in surface waters, there is an identifiable human exposure risk for water users, which varies with the type of water sport undertaken. The relative importance of this exposure is likely to be greater in areas where a large proportion of the population enjoys water sports. Millions of water sport sessions occurred in 2012 that were likely to have resulted in people ingesting E. coli resistant to a single class of antibiotics (3GCs). However, this is expected to be a significant underestimate of recreational exposure to all ARB in seawater.This is the first study to use volumes of water ingested during different water sports to estimate human exposure to ARB. Further work needs to be done to elucidate the health implications and clinical relevance of exposure to ARB in both marine and fresh waters in order to fully understand the risk to public health.     

Modelling the distribution of plutonium in the Pacific Ocean

An Oceanic General Circulation Model (OGCM) including a plutonium scavenging model as well as an advection-diffusion model has been developed for modelling the distribution of plutonium in the Pacific Ocean. Calculated 239, 240Pu water profile concentrations and 239, 240Pu inventories in water and sediment of the Pacific Ocean have showed a reasonable agreement with the experimental results. The presence of local fallout plutonium in central North Pacific waters has been confirmed. The observed 240Pu/239Pu mass ratios confirm that plutonium originating from local fallout from nuclear weapons tests carried out at Bikini and Enewetak Atolls is more rapidly removed from surface waters to deeper waters than plutonium originating from global fallout. The developed OGCM can be used for modelling the dispersion of other non-conservative tracers in the ocean as well.     

Contamination of settling ponds and rivers as a result of discharge of radium-bearing waters from Polish coal mines

Saline waters from underground coal mines in Poland often contain natural radioactive isotopes, mainly 226Ra from the uranium decay series and 228Ra from the thorium series. Approximately 40% of the total amount of radium remains underground as radioactive deposits, but 225 MBq of 226Ra and 400 MBq of 228Ra are released daily into the rivers along with the other mine effluents from all Polish coal mines. Technical measures such as inducing the precipitation of radium in gobs, decreasing the amount of meteoric inflow water into underground workings, etc. have been undertaken in several coal mines, and as a result of these measures, the total amount of radium released to the surface waters has diminished by about 60% during the last 5-6 years. Mine water can have a severe impact on the natural environment, mainly due to its salinity. However, associated high levels of radium concentration in river waters, bottom sediments and vegetation have also been observed. Sometimes radium concentrations in rivers exceed 0.7 kBq/m3, which is the permitted level for waste waters under Polish law. The extensive investigations described here were carried out for all coal mines and on this basis the total radium balance in the effluents has been calculated. Measurements in the vicinity of mine settling ponds and in rivers have given us an opportunity to study radium behaviour in river waters and to assess the degree of contamination. Solid waste materials with enhanced natural radioactivity have been produced in huge amounts in the power and coal industries in Poland. As a result of the combustion of coal in power plants, low-radioactive waste materials are produced, with 226Ra concentration seldom exceeding a few hundreds of Bq/kg. A different situation is observed in coal mines, where, as a result of precipitation of radium from radium-bearing waters, highly radioactive deposits are formed. Sometimes the radioactivity of such materials is extremely high; precipitates from coal mines may have radium concentrations of 400,000 Bq/kg--equivalent to 3% uranium ore. Usually, such deposition takes place underground, but sometimes co-precipitation of radium with barium takes place on the surface, in settling ponds and in rivers. Therefore management of solid waste with technologically enhanced natural radioactivity (TENR) is a very important subject.     

Radium removal from mine waters in underground treatment installations

The underground mining of hard coal is widespread in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (southern Poland). In deep mines, inflows of highly mineralised waters containing radium isotopes are numerous. These waters cause severe damage to the natural environment due to the salinity, but additionally radioactive pollution occurs. The region is densely populated, therefore mitigation methods are very important. The method of radium removal has been applied in full technical scale in two coal mines with very good results - in one of the mines radium-bearing waters are treated at the rate of approximately 0.1m(3)s(-1), while in another mine salty waters are purified at the rate of 0.1m(3)s(-1). The purification takes place in special underground galleries without any contact of the mining crew with the radioactive deposits produced during the process. As a result, release of radium is significantly lower, more than 200MBq of (226)Ra and (228)Ra remains underground each day.