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1.
Empirical monitoring studies of catchment-scale Escherichia coli burden to land from agriculture are scarce. This is not surprising given the complexity associated with the temporal and spatial heterogeneity in the excretion of livestock faecal deposits and variability in microbial content of faeces. However, such information is needed to appreciate better how land management and landscape features impact on water quality draining agricultural landscapes. The aim of this study was to develop and test a field-based protocol for determining the burden of E. coli in a small headwater catchment in the UK. Predictions of E. coli burden using an empirical model based on previous best estimates of excretion and shedding rates were also evaluated against observed data. The results indicated that an empirical model utilising key parameters was able to satisfactorily predict E. coli burden on pasture most of the time, with 89% of observed values falling within the minimum and maximum range of predicted values. In particular, the overall temporal pattern of E. coli burden on pasture is captured by the model. The observed and predicted values recorded a disagreement of > 1 order of magnitude on only one of the nine sampling dates throughout an annual period. While a first approximation of E. coli burden to land, this field-based protocol represents one of the first comprehensive approaches for providing a real estimate of a dynamic microbial reservoir at the headwater catchment scale and highlights the utility of a simple dynamic empirical model for a more economical prediction of catchment-scale E. coli burden.  相似文献   

2.
Water pollution, evident by negative values of redox potential in waters, occurs at the lagoonal coast located near the densely populated area of Fongafale Islet on Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, Central Pacific. Sediment microbial quinone analysis revealed that these coastal sediments exhibit 2.7–10.4 times more microbial biomass, significantly different microbial community structure and low microbial diversity, when compared to an undisturbed natural coastal sediment. Thus, the pollution is chronic. By considering the total land use/coverage on the islet, the situation of septic tank installations, temporal changes in water redox potential and Escherichia coli numbers in the coastal waters and the spatial distribution of acid volatile sulfide in the sediments, we conclude that domestic wastewater is the primary source of pollution. This pollution is proposed to occur via the following mechanism: during ebb tides, domestic wastewater leaking from bottomless septic tanks and pit toilets run off into the lagoonal coast. Tide changes control the pollution load of domestic wastewater.  相似文献   

3.
Microbiological quality of surface waters can be affected by microbial load in runoff from grazing lands. This effect, with other factors, depends on the survival of microorganisms in animal waste deposited on pastures. Since temperature is a leading environmental parameter affecting survival, it indirectly impacts water microbial quality. The Q10 model is widely used to predict the effect of temperature on rates of biological processes, including survival. Objectives of this work were to (i) evaluate the applicability of the Q10 model to Escherichia coli inactivation in bovine manure deposited on grazing land (i.e., cowpats) and (ii) identify explanatory variables for the previously reported E. coli survival dynamics in cowpats. Data utilized in this study include published results on E. coli concentrations in natural and repacked cowpats from research conducted the U.S. (Virginia and Maryland), New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. Inspection of the datasets led to conceptualizing E. coli survival (in cowpats) as a two-stage process, in which the initial stage was due to growth, inactivation or stationary state of the population and the second stage was the approximately first-order inactivation. Applying the Q10 model to these datasets showed a remarkable similarity in inactivation rates, using the thermal time. The reference inactivation rate constant of 0.042 (thermal days) 1 at 20 °C gave a good approximation (R2 = 0.88) of all inactivation stage data with Q10 = 1.48. The reference inactivation rate constants in individual studies were no different from the one obtained by pooling all data (P < 0.05). The rate of logarithm of the E. coli concentration change during the first stage depended on temperature. Duration of the first stage, prior to the first-order inactivation stage and the initial concentration of E. coli in cowpats, could not be predicted from available data. Diet and age are probable factors affecting these two parameters however, until their environmental and management predictors are known, microbial water quality modeling must treat them as a stochastic source of uncertainty in simulation results.  相似文献   

4.
Animal agriculture has been identified as an important source of diffuse faecal microbial pollution of water. Our current understanding of the losses of faecal microbes from grazed pasture systems is however poor. To help synthesise our current knowledge, a simple two reservoir model was constructed to represent the faecal and environmental sources of Escherichia coli found in a grazed pastoral system. The size of the faecal reservoir was modelled on a daily basis with inputs from grazing animals, and losses due to die-off of E. coli and decomposition of the faecal material. Estimates were made of transport coefficients of E. coli losses from the two reservoirs. The concentration of E. coli measured in overland flow and artificial drainage from grazed plots, used for calibration of the model, showed a significant (P < 0.0001) decrease with days since last grazing — up to 120 days. Modelled E. coli runoff concentrations calibrated well with the regression line from the measured data up to 120 days. Variability of E. coli concentrations in the source faecal material could account for the variability in the measured runoff concentrations. Measured E. coli concentrations in artificial drainage water from 120 to 1300 days since last grazing appeared to be greater than the model predicted. The longer term data clearly illustrated the need for an environmental reservoir of E. coli in models of grazed pasture systems. Research is needed to understand the behaviour and impact of this environmental reservoir. Scenario analysis using the model indicated that rather than manipulating the faecal material itself post defecation, mitigation options should focus on manipulating grazing management.  相似文献   

5.
A cohort of low income, city dwelling, pregnant African American Women (delivered from 1994–1999) was assembled to identify factors related to organochlorine exposure through consumption of Great Lakes resources. The cohort is known as the Great Lakes Cohort of Pregnant African American Women (GLCPAAW). Pregnant women from metropolitan Chicago, IL area clinics were administered a questionnaire on diet, demographics, and health history. Weight, height, and serum lipids were measured at delivery along with serum organochlorines such as PCBs and DDE. Congener specific concentrations of PCBs and p,p'-DDE found in the maternal serum are reported. Dominant PCB congeners found in the serum of the pregnant women at delivery included PCB 101, 118, 138, 153, and 180. The high prevalence and magnitude of PCB 101 (greater than the limit of detection in > 80% of the women in the cohort) are unique characteristics of this cohort.Great Lakes fish has been identified as a source of exposure to organochlorines in several studies. Spearman correlations and robust regression models were utilized to identify the impact of Great Lakes fish ingestion on cohort serum organochlorine concentrations. Several potential confounders of the relationship between serum organochlorines and Great Lakes fish consumption were identified. Covariates related to organochlorines in correlations as well as regression models included age, body surface area, fish ingestion, lipids, parity, race and smoking. Lower chlorinated PCB congeners do not follow the same trends as the higher chlorinated congeners and DDE. The higher chlorinated PCB congeners (PCB 138, 153, and 180) and DDE were correlated with age while the lower chlorinated congeners were not. PCB 153 and 180 regression models included age as a significant covariate. None of the higher chlorinated congeners correlated to race, while both lower chlorinated congeners were correlated to race. Race was also significant in both lower chlorinated congeners' regression models. PCB 101, a lower chlorinated congener seldom found in human serum, is readily found in the cohort. Airborne PCB exposure as well as diminished metabolism of PCB 101 in African Americans may explain the increased presence of PCB 101 and it's correlation with race.High end sport fish consumers (≥ 1meal per week) carried elevated levels of DDE and higher chlorinated PCB congeners (138, 153, and 180) compared to non-sport fish eaters. Unexpectedly, DDE was correlated more consistently with fish ingestion and age (a marker of bioaccumulation) in comparison to PCBs. Small correlations were found between serum PCBs and fish ingestion (Spearman correlation = 0.19 for total PCBs and fish meals per year). Additionally, Serum PCBs in low end Great Lakes sport fish consumers were not higher than non-consumers. These findings suggest the women of the cohort are being exposed to PCBs through other routes in addition to Great lakes sport fish. One major route of exposure may be Chicago air. The observed trends amongst individual PCB congeners has important ramifications because lower chlorinated congeners or their metabolites may be mediators of toxicity. Organochlorine exposure through Great Lakes fish ingestion was clearly identified in high end fish consumers while associations with race, metabolism, and possible airborne exposures pose new questions.  相似文献   

6.
Iodine-131 reaches the marine environment through its excretion to the sewer by nuclear medicine patients followed by discharge through coastal and deepwater outfalls. 131I has been detected in macroalgae, which bio-accumulate iodine, growing near the coastal outfall of Cronulla sewage treatment plant (STP) since 1995. During this study, 131I levels in liquid effluent and sludge from three Sydney STPs as well as in macroalgae (Ulva sp. and Ecklonia radiata) growing near their shoreline outfalls were measured. Concentration factors of 176 for Ulva sp. and 526 for E. radiata were derived. Radiation dose rates to marine biota from 131I discharged to coastal waters calculated using the ERICA dose assessment tool were below the ERICA screening level of 10 μGy/hr. Radiation dose rates to humans from immersion in seawater or consumption of Ulva sp. containing 131I were three and two orders of magnitude below the IAEA screening level of 10 μSv/year, respectively.  相似文献   

7.
In 2010, the global burden of foodborne diseases was 33 million Disability-adjusted life years, and 40 % of this burden was for children under 5 years old (Havelaar et al. 2015). Our study site was informal public markets within Mzuzu, Malawi, visited between September and December 2015, during the dry season. From these markets, fresh vegetables, leafy greens (n = 85), tomato (n = 85), and green pepper (n = 35) were analyzed for Escherichia coli. The prevalence of E. coli was highest on leafy greens; it was found in 74 (87 %) of the 85 samples. The prevalence of E. coli in green peppers was found in 2 (6 %) of the 35 samples. The prevalence of E. coli was lowest on tomatoes; it was found in only 1 (1 %) of the 85 samples. The lack of adequate water and sanitation infrastructure in market areas may be contributing to the bacteriological contamination of fresh produce. Providing venders with free access to market area toilets containing hand-washing facilities with soap and wash water with a chlorine solution may reduce bacterial contamination of fresh produce. Universal and sustainable access to water and sanitation services must include informal public market areas to reduce diarrheal diseases transmitted through food within Sub-Saharan Africa countries.  相似文献   

8.
Farmworkers' children may have increased pesticide exposure through dermal absorption and non-dietary ingestion, routes that are difficult to measure and model. The Cumulative Aggregate Simulation of Exposure (CASE) model, integrates the complexity of human behavior and variability of exposure processes by combining micro-level activity time series (MLATS) and mechanistic exposure equations. CASE was used to estimate residential non-dietary organophosphate pesticide exposure (i.e., inhalation, dermal, and non-dietary ingestion) to California farmworker children and evaluate the micro-activity approach. MLATS collected from children and distributions developed from pesticide measurements in farmworkers' residences served as inputs. While estimated diazinon exposure was greater for inhalation, chlorpyrifos exposure was greater for the other routes. Greater variability existed between children (σB2 = 0.22–0.39) than within each child's simulations (σW2 = 0.01–0.02) for dermal and non-dietary ingestion. Dermal exposure simulations were not significantly different than measured values from dosimeters worn by the children. Non-dietary ingestion exposure estimates were comparable to duplicate diet measurements, indicating this route may contribute substantially to aggregate exposure. The results suggest the importance of the micro-activity approach for estimating non-dietary exposure. Other methods may underestimate exposure via these routes. Model simulations can be used to identify at-risk children and target intervention strategies.  相似文献   

9.
During the last 5 yr, the air of sewage treatment plants was examined bacteriologically under different climatic conditions. Methods of examination were sedimentation on nutrient agar, membrane filtration and the use of an impinger. At each sampling site wind velocity and humidity of air were measured. In addition to colony counts, the presence of fecal indicators (E. coli, Clostridia), Salmonella, non-agglutinable cholera vibrios and Pseudomonas aeruginosa was determined. The results were as follows: The formation of mist above the sewage in aeration tanks was preferably observed during the winter season. Correspondingly, the bacteriological results were less favourable in winter-time; trickling filters are also capable of spreading bacteria into ambient air; E. coli could be found up to a distance of 300 m downwind from the aeration tanks, Salmonella up to a distance of 10 m; higher wind velocity resulted in a higher number of positive findings, sunshine diminished it, covering of the aeration tanks clearly resulted in a lower number of positive findings, parallel examinations performed at other sampling sites far from sewage treatment plants, such as underground stations, shops, or sports facilities revealed that the bacterial level at such sites was much lower than in the air of sewage treatment plants. Quantitative studies (Salmonella was taken as an example) revealed that the dissemination by air was low in relation to the Salmonella content of the sewage itself, so that the infectious dose was hardly attained by direct ingestion. Nevertheless, hygienic measures, such as hand washing, use of protecting clothes and avoidance of contact with foods in the open air should be performed in sewage treatment plants so that the infectious dose also cannot be indirectly reached. Beyond this, the possibility cannot be ruled out that conditions are quite different for other pathogens having much lower infectious doses.  相似文献   

10.
Routine bacteriological analysis of sewage work effluents and surface waters has not revealed evidence of Vibrio cholerae or Vibrio El Tor, whereas, non-agglutinating cholera vibrios of Heiberg's groups I and II [so-called non-agglutinating strains (NAG)] have been detected quite frequently. This frequency of NAG presence is approximately equivalent to the presence of Salmonella. Depending on local conditions, quantitative studies of equal amounts of sewage resulted in a ratio of about 1 NAG/102Salmonella/107E. coli.When it became known that NAG vibrios were capable of producing a clinical appearance in man that resembled cholera by its symptoms and severeness, NAG vibrios raised epidemiological interest. Unlike Salmonella, the nutrient requirements of NAG vibrios are moderate. The decisive factors for their persistence in the environmental are attributed to a certain chloride content in the water and an elevated pH value. Both factors are preferably present in sea water. Over a period of 3 yr, samples of water from the Baltic Sea (Lübecker Bucht) were regularly examined for the presence of NAG vibrios. During this period, there have been a number of positive findings in a sample of 100 ml water while identical samples were always Salmonella-negative.  相似文献   

11.
Increased nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) inputs are major causes of eutrophication in the coastal waters of the Black Sea. The objective of this study is to analyze the past and future trends in river export of nitrogen and phosphorus to the coastal waters of the Black Sea and to assess the associated potential for coastal eutrophication. The Global NEWS-2 (Nutrient Export from WaterSheds) model was used for this purpose. Currently, most eutrophication occurs in the North Black Sea and the Azov Sea. In the future, however, this may change. We analyzed trends up to 2050 on the basis of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) scenarios. The results indicate that nutrient loads in rivers draining into the North Black Sea and the Azov Sea may decrease in the coming decades as a result of agricultural trends and environmental policy. However, in these scenarios, the targets of the Black Sea Convention are not met. In the South Black Sea, there is currently little eutrophication. But this may change because of increases in nutrient inputs from sewage in the future.  相似文献   

12.
Arsenic (As) is a ubiquitous element. The current WHO guideline for As in drinking water is 10 μg/L. Furthermore, about 130 million people have only access to drinking water containing more than 10 gAs/L. Although numerous studies have shown the related adverse effects of As, sensitive appropriate biomarkers are still required for studies of environmental epidemiology. A review of the literature has shown that various biomarkers are used for such research. Their limits and advantages are highlighted in this paper: (i) the detection of As or its derivatives in the blood is an indication of the dose ingested but it is not evidence of chronic intoxication. (ii) The detection of As in urine is an indispensible procedure because it is a good marker for internal dose. It has been demonstrated to correlate well for a number of chronic effects related to As levels in drinking water. However confounding factors must be taken into account to avoid misinterpretation and this may require As speciation. (iii) As in the hair and nails reflects the level of long term exposure but it is difficult to relate the level with the dose ingested. (iv) Some studies showed a correlation between urinary As and urinary and blood porphyrins. However, it is difficult to use only porphyrins as a biomarker in a population survey carried out without doing further studies. (v) Genotoxic effects are based on the characterization of these potential effects. Most studies have detected increases in DNA damage, sister chromatid exchange, micronuclei or chromosomal aberrations in populations exposed to As in drinking water. Micronuclei assay is the technique of choice to follow these populations, because it is sensitive and easy to use.To conclude, whatever epidemiological studies are, the urinary and toenail biomarkers are useful to provide indications of internal dose. Moreover, micronuclei assay can be complementary use as biomarker of early effects.  相似文献   

13.
Concern about adverse health effects arising out of human exposure to polluted seawater through bathing and other forms of aquatic recreation has led to the development of various quality criteria and standards worldwide. Attempts at quantifying health hazards from polluted recreational waters have been made in several Mediterranean countries through the conduction of epidemiological studies aimed at establishing direct correlation between the microbiological quality of the water and health effects on exposed population groups. This article provides an overview on the development of the criteria and standards for coastal recreational waters in the Mediterranean by examining the evolution of the WHO guidelines, the WHO/UNEP interim criteria for bathing waters and the EU Directives. It also provides a brief account of the various quality criteria and standards for coastal recreational waters in current use in all the Mediterranean countries.  相似文献   

14.
Personal exposures via ingestion of indoor dust to α-, β-, and γ-hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDs) and the degradation products (pentabromocyclododecenes (PBCDs) and tetrabromocyclododecadienes (TBCDs)) were estimated for 21 UK adults. Under an average dust ingestion scenario, personal exposures ranged from 4.5 to 1851 ng ΣHBCDs day? 1; while the range under a high dust ingestion scenario was 11 to 4630 ng ΣHBCDs day? 1. On average, personal exposure to ΣHBCDs via dust ingestion in this study was 35% α-, 11% β-, and 54% γ-HBCD. However, while exposure to β-HBCD (4–18% of ΣHBCDs) was relatively consistent with the proportion of this diastereomer in the HBCD commercial formulation; exposures to α- and γ-isomers (11–58% and 29–82% of ΣHBCDs respectively) showed substantial variation from the commercial formulation pattern. Personal exposures to ΣTBCDs (median = 0.2 ng day? 1 under an average dust ingestion scenario) and ΣPBCDs (1.4 ng day? 1) were significantly lower (p < 0.05) than for ΣHBCDs (48 ng day? 1). Despite this, the exposure of one participant to ΣPBCDs exceeded the exposure to ΣHBCDs received by 85% of the other participants. On average, house dust provided the major contribution to personal exposure via dust ingestion to all target compounds due to the large time fraction spent in houses. In contrast, although participants spent less time in cars than in offices, car dust makes a higher average contribution (17%) to ΣHBCDs exposure than office dust (13%).  相似文献   

15.
BackgroundExposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs) during pregnancy was associated with reduced foetal growth. Genetic susceptibility might play a role, especially for genes encoding for the Cytochrome P450 (CYP2E1) and Glutathione S-Transferase (GST) enzymes, involved in metabolism and activation of DBPs. Few epidemiological studies evaluated these gene-environment interactions and their results were never replicated.ObjectiveThis study aims to examine interactions between trihalomethanes (THM) or haloacetic acids (HAA) exposure and genetic polymorphisms on small for gestational age (SGA) neonates by investigating single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CYP2E1 gene and GSTM1 and GSTT1 deletions in mothers-children pairs.MethodsA population-based case-control study of 1549 mothers and 1455 children was conducted on SGA and THM/HAA exposure. DNA was extracted from blood or saliva cells. Targeted SNPs and deletions were genotyped. Statistical interaction between SNPs/deletions and THMs or HAAs in utero exposure with regard to SGA occurrence was evaluated by unconditional logistic regression with control of potential confounders.ResultsPreviously reported positive modification of the effect of THM uterine exposure by mothers or newborns CYP2E1 rs3813867 C allele or GSTM1 deletion was not replicated. However interactions with CYP2E1 rs117618383 and rs2515641 were observed but were not statistically significant after correction for multiple testing.ConclusionsPrevious positive interactions between THMs exposure and CYP2E1 and GSTM1 were not replicated but interactions with other CYP2E1 polymorphisms are reported.  相似文献   

16.
This review discusses the potential contribution of phytoestrogens and mycoestrogens to in vitro estrogenic activities occurring in surface waters and in vivo estrogenic effects in fish. Main types, sources, and pathways of entry into aquatic environment of these detected compounds were summarized. Reviewed concentrations of phyto/mycoestrogens in surface waters were mostly undetectable or in low ng/L ranges, but exceeded tens of μg/L for the flavonoids biochanin A, daidzein and genistein at some sites. While a few phytosterols were reported to occur at relatively high concentrations in surface waters, information about their potencies in in vitro systems is very limited, and contradictory in some cases. The relative estrogenic activities of compounds (compared to standard estrogen 17β-estradiol) by various in vitro assays were included, and found to differ by orders of magnitude. These potencies were used to estimate total potential estrogenic activities based on chemical analyses of phyto/mycoestrogens. In vivo effective concentrations of waterborne phyto/mycoestrogens were available only for biochanin A, daidzein, formononetin, genistein, equol, sitosterol, and zearalenone. The lowest observable effect concentrations in vivo were reported for the mycoestrogen zearalenone. This compound and especially its metabolites also elicited the highest in vitro estrogenic potencies. Despite the limited information available, the review documents low contribution of phyto/mycoestrogens to estrogenic activity in vast majority of surface waters, but significant contribution to in vitro responses and potentially also to in vivo effects in areas with high concentrations.  相似文献   

17.
This study provides a first estimation on the sources, distribution and risk of organic micropollutants (OMPs) in coastal waters from NW Mediterranean Sea. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, organochlorinated pesticides, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, phthalates and alkylphenols were analyzed by solid phase extraction and gas chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (SPE–GC–EI-MS/MS). River waters and wastewater treatment plant effluents discharging to the sea were identified as the main sources of OMPs to coastal waters, with an estimated input amount of around of 25,800 g d 1. The concentration of ΣOMPs in coastal areas ranged from 17.4 to 8442 ng L 1, and was the highest in port waters, followed by coastal and river mouth seawaters. A summarized overview of the patterns and sources of OMP contamination on the investigated coastal sea waters of NW Mediterranean Sea, as well as of their geographical distribution was obtained by Principal Component Analysis of the complete data set after its adequate pretreatment. Alkylphenols, bisphenol A and phthalates were the main contributors to ΣOMPs and produced an estimated significant pollution risk for fish, algae and the sensitive mysid shrimp organisms in seawater samples. The combination of GC-MS/MS, chemometrics and risk analysis is proven to be useful for a better control and management of OMP discharges.  相似文献   

18.
The consequences of anthropogenic impact on the water area of Amur Bay (the Sea of Japan) near Vladivostok include the eutrophication of coastal waters and littering with various objects used as artificial substrates, which protect sedentary animals from predators and contribute to the survival of their larvae. An indicator of eutrophication, the diatom Skeletonema costatum accounting for 81–96% of the total abundance of phytoplankton (Stonik and Selina, 1995), is consumed mainly by barnacles and the Pacific oyster. Thus, these animals gain an advantage in the colonization of artificial substrates. The results of the study suggest that eutrophication will lead to changes in the structure of the marine community.  相似文献   

19.
Groundwater source is the major source of drinking water in most of the suburban areas of India. Groundwater quality was analyzed for pH, TDS, hardness, chloride, fluoride, nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, total coliform and E. coli for the period of January–December 2013. Samples were collected from 10 locations that include 10 shallow wells and 10 deep wells in each location. The quality variation between both shallow and deep wells during pre- and post-monsoon was analyzed. The improper disposal of solid waste and the distance of septic tank were pronounced on E. coli count. The analysis reveals that groundwater contamination is influenced by seasonal changes, environmental condition of the well and maintenance of the well. The high contamination was observed in the wells which are near to the Pallikaranai marsh, and during post-monsoon season, the total dissolved solids and nitrite parameters are slightly increased, whereas chloride increases during pre-monsoon season. Correlation analysis reveals that the chloride and nitrite have a significant relation. The results suggested that the groundwater immediately needs broader protection.  相似文献   

20.
River deltas all over the world are sinking beneath sea-level rise, causing significant threats to natural and social systems. This is due to the combined effects of anthropogenic changes to sediment supply and river flow, subsidence, and sea-level rise, posing an immediate threat to the 500–1,000 million residents, many in megacities that live on deltaic coasts. The Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (MRDP) provides examples for many of the functions and feedbacks, regarding how human river management has impacted source-sink processes in coastal deltaic basins, resulting in human settlements more at risk to coastal storms. The survival of human settlement on the MRDP is arguably coupled to a shifting mass balance between a deltaic landscape occupied by either land built by the Mississippi River or water occupied by the Gulf of Mexico. We developed an approach to compare 50 % L:W isopleths (L:W is ratio of land to water) across the Atchafalaya and Terrebonne Basins to test landscape behavior over the last six decades to measure delta instability in coastal deltaic basins as a function of reduced sediment supply from river flooding. The Atchafalaya Basin, with continued sediment delivery, compared to Terrebonne Basin, with reduced river inputs, allow us to test assumptions of how coastal deltaic basins respond to river management over the last 75 years by analyzing landward migration rate of 50 % L:W isopleths between 1932 and 2010. The average landward migration for Terrebonne Basin was nearly 17,000 m (17 km) compared to only 22 m in Atchafalaya Basin over the last 78 years (p < 0.001), resulting in migration rates of 218 m/year (0.22 km/year) and <0.5 m/year, respectively. In addition, freshwater vegetation expanded in Atchafalaya Basin since 1949 compared to migration of intermediate and brackish marshes landward in the Terrebonne Basin. Changes in salt marsh vegetation patterns were very distinct in these two basins with gain of 25 % in the Terrebonne Basin compared to 90 % decrease in the Atchafalaya Basin since 1949. These shifts in vegetation types as L:W ratio decreases with reduced sediment input and increase in salinity also coincide with an increase in wind fetch in Terrebonne Bay. In the upper Terrebonne Bay, where the largest landward migration of the 50 % L:W ratio isopleth occurred, we estimate that the wave power has increased by 50–100 % from 1932 to 2010, as the bathymetric and topographic conditions changed, and increase in maximum storm-surge height also increased owing to the landward migration of the L:W ratio isopleth. We argue that this balance of land relative to water in this delta provides a much clearer understanding of increased flood risk from tropical cyclones rather than just estimates of areal land loss. We describe how coastal deltaic basins of the MRDP can be used as experimental landscapes to provide insights into how varying degrees of sediment delivery to coastal deltaic floodplains change flooding risks of a sinking delta using landward migrations of 50 % L:W isopleths. The nonlinear response of migrating L:W isopleths as wind fetch increases is a critical feedback effect that should influence human river-management decisions in deltaic coast. Changes in land area alone do not capture how corresponding landscape degradation and increased water area can lead to exponential increase in flood risk to human populations in low-lying coastal regions. Reduced land formation in coastal deltaic basins (measured by changes in the land:water ratio) can contribute significantly to increasing flood risks by removing the negative feedback of wetlands on wave and storm-surge that occur during extreme weather events. Increased flood risks will promote population migration as human risks associated with living in a deltaic landscape increase, as land is submerged and coastal inundation threats rise. These system linkages in dynamic deltaic coasts define a balance of river management and human settlement dependent on a certain level of land area within coastal deltaic basins (L).  相似文献   

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