重庆市城区饮用水源健康风险评价

通过对重庆市8个饮用水源地枯水期水体中NH3-N、CN、As、Hg、Cr^＋6、Pb、Cd、Cu、F和挥发酚的浓度进行了调查研究，应用美国环保局推荐的健康风险评价模型对重庆市饮用水源水中污染物引起的健康风险作了评价。结果表明，污染物平均浓度范围分别为NH3-N：0．119—0.740mg／L，CN：0．002—0．004mg／L，As：0．001—0．007mg／L，Hg：0．000001—0．00005mg／L，Cr^＋6：0．004—0.023mg／L．Pb：0．004—0．053mg／L．Cd：0．00035—0．005mg／L．Cu：0．0005—0．0254mg/L，F：0．140—0．335mg／L，挥发酚：0．001—0．0027mg／L。重庆市通过饮水途径引起的非致癌健康风险中Pb的风险最大，F次之，两者风险水平在10^-8～10^-9／a；Cr^＋6引起的致癌风险最大达到10^-4／a；以长江为饮用水源的人群总健康风险大于嘉陵江，其健康风险达到EPA要求，但高于国际辐射防护委员会（ICRP）的最大可接受风险水平。     

Identifying sources and assessing potential risk of heavy metals in soils from direct exposure to children in a mine-impacted city, Changsha, China

Heavy metal pollutants in soils can usually enter the human body and pose heath risks through a soil-crop-human body pathway (indirect exposure) or soil-human body pathway (direct exposure). Previous studies often neglected the direct exposure in human health risk assessment, especially for children. We collected surface soil samples from urban and suburb areas in Changsha City, China, to analyze the content ofAs, Cd, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn. A combination of principal component analysis, geostatistics, and triangulated irregular network (TIN) model was successfully used to discriminate the sources of heavy metals. The direct exposure method, sequential indicator simulation, and geographical information system (GIS) technologies were used to perform a health risk assessment of heavy metal exposure to children living in the study area. Results show that heavy metal contamination in Changsha may originate from coal usage and industrial activities. One thousand equiprobable realizations suggest that not all sites within the study area may be suitable for housing or allotments without remediation. Most high hazard indexes are located in the suburb and mining areas. Moreover, arsenic presents a high health risk in comparison with other elements. Compared with inhalation and dermal contact in direct soil exposure, soil ingestion is the largest contribution to potential health risks for children. This study indicates that we should attach great importance to the direct soil exposure for children's health.     

Evaluating the PM damage cost due to urban air pollution and vehicle emissions in Seoul, Korea

This study evaluated the prospective damage costs of PM(2.5) inhalation. We performed a health risk assessment based on an exposure-response function to estimate the annual population risk in the Seoul metropolitan city, Korea. Also, we estimated a willingness-to-pay (WTP) amount for reducing the mortality rate in order to evaluate a statistical life value. We combined the annual population risk and the value-of-statistical-life to calculate the damage cost estimate. In the health risk assessment, we applied the PM(2.5) relative risk to evaluate the annual population risk. We targeted an exposure population of 5,401,369 persons who were over the age of 30. Using a Monte-Carlo simulation for uncertainty analysis, we estimated that the population risk of PM(2.5) inhalation during a year in Seoul is 2181 premature deaths for acute exposure and 18,510 premature deaths for chronic exposure. The monthly average WTP for 5/1000 mortality reduction over ten years is $20.20 USD (95% C.I: $16.60-24.50) and the implied value-of-statistical-life (VSL) is $485,000 USD (95% C.I: $398,000-588,000). The damage cost estimate due to risk from PM(2.5) inhalation in Seoul is about $1057 million USD per year for acute exposure, and $8972 million USD per year for chronic exposure. It is important to note that this cost estimate does not reflect all health damage cost estimates in this urban area. This recommendation is a model for evaluating a mortality risk reduction and as such we must re-evaluate an integrated application of morbidity risk.     

饮用水水源地健康风险研究和实例分析

本论文以安庆市9个饮用水源地作为健康风险评价对象,选取2005～2008年的部分水质资料,运用健康风险评价模式,结合安庆地区人群状况修正部分参数,对该地区9个水源地经饮水途径造成的健康风险进行计算和评价。结果表明:化学致癌物所致的健康风险远远高出非致癌物,水源地健康风险主要来源于化学致癌物,在所评价的水源地中以铬(六价)的风险值最大,且有8个水源地铬(六价)的风险值均超过国际辐射防护委员会推荐的最大可接受风险水平,最高值出现在花凉亭水库。     

ARSENIC IN THE SHALLOW GROUND WATERS OF CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES: ASSESSMENT,HEALTH RISKS,AND COSTS FOR MCL COMPLIANCE1

A methodology consisting of ordinal logistic regression (OLR) is used to predict the probability of occurrence of arsenic concentrations in different threshold limits in shallow ground waters of the conterminous United States (CONUS) subject to a set of influencing variables. The analysis considered a number of maximum contaminant level (MCL) options as threshold values to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of arsenic in ranges defined by a given MCL of 3, 5, 10, 20, and 50 μg/l and a detection limit of 1 μg/l. The fit between the observed and predicted probability of occurrence was around 83 percent for all MCL options. The estimated probabilities were used to estimate the median background concentration of arsenic in the CONUS. The shallow ground water of the western United States is more vulnerable than the eastern United States. Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and California in particular are hotspots for arsenic contamination. The risk assessment showed that counties in southern California, Arizona, Florida, and Washington and a few others scattered throughout the CONUS face a high risk from arsenic exposure through untreated ground water consumption. A simple cost effectiveness analysis was performed to understand the household costs for MCL compliance in using arsenic contaminated ground water. The results showed that the current MCL of 10 μg/l is a good compromise based on existing treatment technologies.     

FUZZY DECISION MAKING IN GROUND WATER NITRATE RISK MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Ground water nitrate contamination is widespread in the United States and especially prevalent in agriculture-intensive areas such as the Midwest. To reduce human health risks (i.e., methemoglobinemia and cancer risks) from nitrates in ground water supplies, several nitrate risk-management strategies can be developed based on acceptable levels of human health risks, the reasonableness of the cost required for risk reduction, and the technical feasibility of nitrate-control methods. However, due to a lack of available information, assessing risk, cost, and technical feasibility contains elements of uncertainty. In this paper, a nitrate risk-management methodology using fuzzy sets in combination with a multicriterion decision-making (MCDM) technique is developed to assist decision makers in evaluating, with uncertain information, possible regulatory actions along with the various nitrate risk-management strategies in order to determine an appropriate strategy. The methodology is illustrated using data from a community with a nitrate water-quality problem.     

Protecting asset value and driving performance with a dynamic,risk-based contingency fund

We present a risk-based contingency fund management methodology to mitigate the impact of external risks on asset value and performance. Many asset intensive industries, such as water and energy utilities, are significantly affected by external risks such as extreme weather events. We put the case for a centrally held risk-based contingency fund that would mitigate against ‘medium’ impact ‘medium’ probability events that fall outside of large losses covered by insurance and smaller ‘normal’ operating losses. Our risk-based contingency approach is appropriate for short-term business planning (1–5 years) and would complement longer term planning, for example climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Our approach offers a risk-based methodology to manage contingency that is explicit and defensible. Critically, our methodology allows contingency to be managed dynamically as risk probabilities and impacts change, creating a mechanism for contingency funds to be periodically released if risk exposure reduces. The long-term benefit of dynamic, risk-based contingency is to reduce the impact of external risks and support long-term sustainability.     

黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略生态风险评价

结合黄河中上游能源化工区重点产业发展战略生态风险宏观性、综合性、复杂性的特点,论文以生态风险景观评价方法及3S技术等为研究手段,综合考虑重点产业发展战略人为风险源及自然风险源,以生态风险受体和终点选择、风险源分析、暴露危害分析、生态风险综合评价及生态风险分区为评价步骤,揭示了重点产业发展战略潜在生态风险空间分异特征。研究结果表明：黄河中上游重点产业战略实施区可划分为三类生态风险监控区,生态风险重点监控区自然风险源分布集中,重点产业人为风险源和自然风险源交织在一起,极易发生生态风险放大效应,生态风险次重点监控区自然生态风险源分布较单一,局部重点产业人为风险源强度增强,将增加区域生态风险水平,生态风险监控区自然生态风险源分布范围较小,潜在生态风险水平相对较低。论文探索了战略环评生态风险评价方法和评价思路,为国内重点产业发展战略生态风险评价提供了借鉴。     

Risk-Based Analysis of Environmental Monitoring Data: Application to Heavy Metals in North Carolina Surface Waters

The state of North Carolina's Department of Environment and Natural Resources (NCDENR) conducts routine water quality monitoring throughout the state to assess the health of aquatic systems. The current study reports the results of a retrospective (1990–2000) ecological risk assessment of six heavy metals (arsenic, cadmium, copper, lead, mercury, and zinc) in 17 North Carolina basins that was conducted to estimate the risk of heavy metal toxicity to freshwater organisms and assess the sufficiency of NCDENR's monitoring data to identify water-quality-related ecological threats. Acute and chronic ecotoxicological thresholds (ETs) were calculated for each metal based upon the 10th percentile of species sensitivity distributions and were normalized for water hardness. Statewide probabilities (expressed as percentages) of a random sample exceeding acute or chronic ETs among the six metals ranged from 0.01% to 12.19% and 0.76% to 21.21%, respectively, with copper having the highest and arsenic and mercury the lowest risk. Basin-specific probabilities varied significantly depending upon water hardness and presumably watershed development. Although the majority of specific sites where data were collected were at low risk for metal toxicity, some specific sites had a high probability of toxic events associated with one or more metals. Analytical detection limits for metals were frequently higher than estimated chronic ET, limiting the ability to assess the risk of chronic toxicity in soft-water basins. Results suggest risk-based criteria may be useful for assessing and validating the sufficiency of monitoring programs and prioritizing management goals.     

A method for assessing environmental risk: A case study of Green Bay,Lake Michigan,USA

The Science Advisory Board of the US Environmental Protection Agency has recommended that risk reduction strategies become the centerpiece of environmental protection. The goal in developing such strategies is to identify opportunities for greatest reduction of ecological risks. This is a perspective that is significantly more comprehensive than the traditional focus on human health risks arising from environmental degradation. The identification of ecological risks upon which environmental protection efforts should be focused requires an ecological risk assessment methodology that is based on anthropogenic stressors affecting an ecosystem and a set of impaired use criteria. A methodology based on this concept is developed and discussed in this article. The methodology requires that risk values be assigned to each ecosystem stressor-impaired use pair that reflect the degree to which the given stressor contributes to ecosystem risk as measured by the given impaired use criterion. Once these data are available, mathematical analyses based on concepts from fuzzy set theory are performed to obtain a ranking of ecosystem stressors. The methodology has been tested by applying it to a case study involving Green Bay of Lake Michigan. A workshop was held in which 11 persons with extensive knowledge of the Green Bay ecosystem determined risk values through a group-consensus process. The analytical portion of the methodology was then used to rank the ecosystem risks (stressors) from several perspectives, including prevention management and remediation management. The overall conclusion of the workshop participants was that the fuzzy set decision model is a useful and effective methodology for differentiating environmental risk.     

Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management

There has recently been a return in climate change risk management practice to bottom‐up, robustness‐based planning paradigms introduced 40 years ago. The World Bank's decision tree framework (DTF) for “confronting climate uncertainty” is one incarnation of those paradigms. In order to better represent the state of the art in climate change risk assessment and evaluation techniques, this paper proposes: (1) an update to the DTF, replacing its “climate change stress test” with a multidimensional stress test; and (2) the addition of a Bayesian network framework that represents joint probabilistic behavior of uncertain parameters as sensitivity factors to aid in the weighting of scenarios of concern (the combination of conditions under which a water system fails to meet its performance targets). Using the updated DTF, water system planners and project managers would be better able to understand the relative magnitudes of the varied risks they face, and target investments in adaptation measures to best reduce their vulnerabilities to change. Next steps for the DTF include enhancements in: modeling of extreme event risks; coupling of human‐hydrologic systems; integration of surface water and groundwater systems; the generation of tradeoffs between economic, social, and ecological factors; incorporation of water quality considerations; and interactive data visualization.     

土壤污染风险评价研究进展

随着工业化和城镇化快速发展,土壤污染带来的人体健康和生态风险日益凸显.本文针对我国土壤污染环境风险评价体系在风险管控中的缺失问题,系统总结了国内外土壤污染的风险研究发展成果,按照土壤污染的人体健康风险和生态风险,分别进行评价方法、评价标准和管理实践的总结与评述.文章着重指出:土壤污染风险评价在生态系统水平及区域流域尺度上缺失,评价方法未能与污染物存在形态完全匹配,评价指标还不能覆盖大部分重金属和有机物,健康风险与生态风险还没有实现综合评价.     

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Treated Wastewater Use for Agriculture in Water Deficit Regions1

Al-Juaidi, Ahmed E., Jagath J. Kaluarachchi, and Ungtae Kim, 2010. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis of Treated Wastewater Use for Agriculture in Water Deficit Regions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):395-411. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00409.x Abstract: Coastal regions such as the Gaza Strip of Palestine with limited freshwater supply suffer significantly due to the rapid depletion of water levels, seawater intrusion, and increased water demands. In such regions, use of treated wastewater (TWW) is a viable option if public health issues are addressed. The goal of this paper is to address the use of TWW in agriculture while considering net benefit, economic efficiency of water use (EEWU), environmental goals, and public health risks. The proposed methodology considers public health risk assessment and multi-criteria decision analysis to assess the beneficial use of TWW in agriculture. The methodology was demonstrated for the Gaza Strip. The health risk assessment suggests that increasing the elapsed time between irrigation and consumption and switching from surface to sprinkler and drip irrigation are practical measures to reduce public health risks. The optimization and decision analyses show that proper allocation of freshwater and TWW and distribution of land area by crop type can significantly increase the net benefit and EEWU. In most cases, net benefit increased by 44%, groundwater use reduced 29% while increasing the EEWU by threefold compared with the existing conditions. The multi-criteria decision analysis with weighted goal programming can develop flexible management options that considers a given decision-maker preference. When groundwater abstraction for agriculture reduced from 57 to 36 Mm³ as per decision analysis, the corresponding area below mean sea level decreased by 58% indicating significant aquifer recovery.     

基于价值创造视角的公司水风险管理研究

随着全球水资源供应不确定性与需求竞争性的加剧,水资源问题已从单纯的环境问题转化为经济问题,水风险逐渐与商业风险挂钩,公司面临的水风险不断上升。公司面临着物理风险、监管风险和声誉风险等水风险,公司水价值体现在业务连续性、经营牌照、声誉与品牌价值和创新价值等无形资产中。水风险与水价值二者相互联系又相互影响,通过公司水价值与水风险评估框架,了解区分水价值的不同方法,明确风险和不确定性如何影响水的价值,并利用水工具评估和管理公司所面临的水风险以及水对公司价值的影响,帮助公司化解其所面临的水风险,实现从公司水风险管理到价值创造的转变。     

Implementation of failure modes and effects analysis in detergent production companies: A case study

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is the most important method used by production companies to identify potential risks regarding occupational and health hazards and environmental hazards. This method is also useful in defining preventive actions to reduce the effects of these risks. Detergent production companies continually encounter many occupational and health hazards and environmental hazards, the management and reduction of which requires complex assessment in real‐world applications. This paper presents a framework for application of FMEA for managing and ranking identified risks in detergent production companies. A case study is presented to show the application of an FMEA to investigate the results of its application and the outcomes from the analysis. A risk priority number (RPN) is proposed for each distinct risk. The application of FMEA in the detergent production company resulted in grouping the RPN of the identified risks into four different categories. The main corrective actions, which are determined to reduce the RPNs, are presented in this paper. Improving the RPN of the main risks is observed after executing the corrective actions.     

Assessment of tropical suburban surface soils contamination from Jengka,Malaysia

Heavy metals in suburban soils pose both indirect and direct health risks. This study assessed the concentrations of Cr, Zn, Pb, and Cd in Jengka (Malaysia) suburban soil and estimated the human health risk. Health risk assessment (HRA) was utilized to assess non-cancer and cancer risks. The concentrations of heavy metals increased in the following order: Cd < Zn < Cr < Pb. The heavy metals were found to be divided into two components using principal component analysis (PCA), with PC1 comprising Pb and Cd and PC2 containing Zn and Cr. PC1 originates from anthropogenic sources, while PC2 is often from mixed anthropogenic and natural sources. Despite having the lowest mean concentration, Cd was enriched based on the geo-accumulation index (Igeo) and enrichment factor (EF). Average hazard index values were below the acceptable threshold (HI < 1) for dermal and inhalation pathways suggesting a low non-cancer risk. Jengka suburban soil had total lifetime cancer risk values slightly higher than the acceptable threshold (1 × 10⁻⁵). Skin contact was the most prominent contributing exposure pathway for both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks. This study suggests that heavy metal bioactivity levels be used to make a plausible HRA of heavy metal pollution in suburban soils.     

污染土壤修复效果评估方法研究综述简

综述了评估污染土壤修复效果的指标及方法,包括残留污染分析法、风险评估法、植物毒性法、动物毒性法、微生物毒性法、土壤酶水平法等典型的评估方法,分析了各种方法的优缺点及适用范围。其中,植物毒性法适用于再利用类型为工业、商业用地的场地;动物毒性法适用于再利用类型为居住用地的场地;土壤微生物法、土壤酶水平法适用于再利用类型为农业用地的场地;对于存在人体暴露途径的用地,应结合人体健康风险评估法进行风险评估,综合评定土壤修复的效果。最后对该领域今后的研究方向进行了展望。     

Seeking,Thinking, Acting: Understanding Suburban Resident Perceptions and Behaviors Related to Stream Quality

Theories in risk, psychology, and communication suggest aiming to inform the public about basic ecological facts may not be enough to influence knowledge of risks or behaviors to mitigate water quality risks. The risk information‐seeking and processing model and the theory of planned behavior suggest several additional variables that are likely to influence risk‐mitigating behaviors. We used data from a survey of watershed residents in Ohio to explore a model of behavioral intentions to positively impact stream health. Residents' informational norms, or the perceived pressure to know about local stream health, strongly predicted their information‐seeking behaviors. Active‐seeking behaviors predicted positive attitudes toward behaviors impacting stream health, which predicted intentions to positively impact stream health. Implications for outreach include couching communication in terms of risk found important to the local community, here wildlife were seen as negatively influenced by water quality, as opposed to plain reports typically provided by utility companies. Increasing social pressure to feel informed by emphasizing the existing knowledge of stream ecology among residents could change the norm for the less informed. A low response rate limits the generalizability of findings here, but leveraging these findings in outreach efforts could prove more successful in engaging the public to improve stream health and support policies to improve stream health.     

油气处理终端环境风险评估与防范对策

环境风险评价是油气处理终端环境影响评价工作的重要组成部分。根据HJ 169—2018《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》的要求,文章对油气处理终端潜在的环境风险进行评估,进行了环境风险识别、风险事故情形分析,确定了油气终端环境风险管理的薄弱环节,选择原油储罐、液化石油气储罐全破裂和陆地混输管线全管径泄漏为最大可信事故。并针对性地提出了环境风险防范措施,提高工程设计安全系数,实现本质环保;构建地表水环境风险防控体系,完善事故水封堵系统;做好分区防渗措施,实现污染物源头控制等;为油气终端环境风险评估及风险防控提供了理论和技术支持。     

Uncertainty modelling in multi-criteria analysis of water safety measures

Water utilities must assess risks and make decisions on safety measures in order to obtain a safe and sustainable drinking water supply. The World Health Organization emphasises preparation of water safety plans, in which risk ranking by means of risk matrices with discretised probability and consequence scales is commonly used. Risk ranking enables prioritisation of risks, but there is currently no common and structured way of performing uncertainty analysis and using risk ranking for evaluating and comparing water safety measures. To enable a proper prioritisation of safety measures and an efficient use of available resources for risk reduction, two alternative models linking risk ranking and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are presented and evaluated. The two models specifically enable uncertainty modelling in MCDA, and they differ in terms of how uncertainties in risk levels are considered. The need of formal handling of risk and uncertainty in MCDA is emphasised in the literature, and the suggested models provide innovations that are not dependent on the application domain. In the case study application presented here, possible safety measures are evaluated based on the benefit of estimated risk reduction, the cost of implementation and the probability of not achieving an acceptable risk level. Additional criteria such as environmental impact and consumer trust may also be included when applying the models. The case study shows how safety measures can be ranked based on preference scores or cost-effectiveness and how measures not reducing the risk enough can be identified and disqualified. Furthermore, the probability of each safety measure being ranked highest can be calculated. The two models provide a stepwise procedure for prioritising safety measures and enable a formalised handling of uncertainties in input data and results.