Impact of Changing Climate and Land Cover on Flood Magnitudes in the Delaware River Basin,USA

Changing climate and land cover are expected to impact flood hydrology in the Delaware River Basin over the 21st Century. HEC‐HMS models (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Hydrologic Modeling System) were developed for five case study watersheds selected to represent a range of scale, soil types, climate, and land cover. Model results indicate that climate change alone could affect peak flood discharges by ?6% to +58% a wide range that reflects regional variation in projected rainfall and snowmelt and local watershed conditions. Land cover changes could increase peak flood discharges up to 10% in four of the five watersheds. In those watersheds, the combination of climate and land cover change increase modeled peak flood discharges by up to 66% and runoff volumes by up to 44%. Precipitation projections are a key source of uncertainty, but there is a high likelihood of greater precipitation falling on a more urbanized landscape that produces larger floods. The influence of climate and land cover changes on flood hydrology for the modeled watersheds varies according to future time period, climate scenario, watershed land cover and soil conditions, and flood frequency. The impacts of climate change alone are typically greater than land cover change but there is substantial geographic variation, with urbanization the greater influence on some small, developing watersheds.     

Effects of Climate and Land Cover on Hydrology in the Southeastern U.S.: Potential Impacts on Watershed Planning

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola‐Chattahoochee‐Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface‐depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation‐Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.     

Modeling Hydrological and Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Urbanization in the Boise River Watershed,Idaho

The potential impacts driven by climate variability and urbanization in the Boise River Watershed (BRW), located in southwestern Idaho, are evaluated. The outcomes from Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and land use and land cover (LULC) analysis have been incorporated into a hydrological and environmental modeling framework to characterize how climate variability and urbanization can affect the local hydrology and environment at the BRW. The combined impacts of future climate and LULC change are also evaluated relative to the historical baseline conditions. For modeling exercises, Hydrological Simulation Program‐Fortran (HSPF) is used in parallel computing and statistical techniques, including spatial downscaling and bias correlation, are employed to evaluate climate consequences derived from GCMs as well. The implications of climate variability and land use change driven by urbanization are then observed to evaluate how these overall global challenges can affect water quantity and quality conditions at the BRW. The results show the combined impacts of both climate change and urbanization can lead to more seasonal variability of streamflow (from ?27.5% to 12.5%) and water quality, including sediment (from ?36.5% to 49.3%), nitrogen (from ?24% to 124.2%), and phosphorus (from ?13.3% to 21.2%) during summer and early fall over the next several decades.     

Hydrologic Impact Assessment of Land Cover Change and Stormwater Management Using the Hydrologic Footprint Residence

Urbanization impacts the stormwater regime through increased runoff volumes and velocities. Detention ponds and low impact development (LID) strategies may be implemented to control stormwater runoff. Typically, mitigation strategies are designed to maintain postdevelopment peak flows at predevelopment levels for a set of design storms. Peak flow does not capture the extent of changes to the hydrologic flow regime, and the hydrologic footprint residence (HFR) was developed to calculate the area and duration of inundated land during a storm. This study couples a cellular automata land cover change model with a hydrologic and hydraulic framework to generate spatial projections of future development on the fringe of a rapidly urbanizing metropolitan area. The hydrologic flow regime is characterized for existing and projected land cover patterns under detention pond and LID‐based control, using the HFR and peak flow values. Results demonstrate that for less intense and frequent rainfall events, LID solutions are better with respect to HFR; for larger storms, detention pond strategies perform better with respect to HFR and peak flow.     

The Influence of Forest Regrowth on the Stream Discharge in the North Carolina Piedmont Watersheds

This study focuses on the relationships of watershed runoff with historical land use/land cover (LULC) and climate trends. Over the 20th Century, LULC in the Southeast United States, particularly the North Carolina Piedmont, has evolved from an agriculture dominated to an extensively forested landscape with more recent localized urbanization. The regrowth of forest has an important influence on the hydrology of the region as it enhances ecosystem interaction with recent climate change. During 1920‐2009, the amount of precipitation in some parts of the North Carolina Piedmont forest regrowth area showed increasing trends without corresponding increments in runoff. We employed the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to backcast long‐term hydrologic behavior of watersheds in North Carolina with different LULC conditions: (1) LULC conversion from agricultural to forested area and (2) long‐term stable forested area. Comparing U.S. Geological Survey‐measured stream discharge with SWAT‐simulated stream discharge under the assumption of constant 2006 LULC, we found significant stream discharge underprediction by SWAT in two LULC conversion watersheds during the early simulation period (1920s) with differences gradually decreasing by the mid‐1970s. This model bias suggests that forest regrowth on abandoned agricultural land was a key factor contributing to mitigate the impact of increased precipitation on runoff due to increasing water consumption driven by changes in vegetation.     

Hydrological Responses to Climate and Land‐Use Changes along the North American East Coast: A 110‐Year Historical Reconstruction

The North American east coast (NAEC) region experienced significant climate and land‐use changes in the past century. To explore how these changes have affected land water cycling, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM 2.0) was used to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of runoff and river discharge during 1901‐2010 in the study area. Annual runoff over the NAEC was 420 ± 61 mm/yr (average ± standard deviation). Runoff increased in parts of the northern NAEC but decreased in some areas of the southern NAEC. Annual freshwater discharge from the study area was 378 ± 61 km³/yr (average ± standard deviation). Factorial simulation experiments suggested that climate change and variability explained 97.5% of the interannual variability of runoff and also resulted in the opposite changes in runoff in northern and southern regions of the NAEC. Land‐use change reduced runoff by 5‐22 mm/yr from 1931 to 2010, but the impacts were divergent over the Piedmont region and Coastal Plain areas of the southern NAEC. Land‐use change impacts were more significant at local and watershed spatial scales rather than at regional scales. Different responses of runoff to changing climate and land‐use should be noted in future water resource management. Hydrological impacts of afforestation and deforestation as well as urbanization should also be noted by land‐use policy makers.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins1

Jin, Xin and Venkataramana Sridhar, 2012. Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Boise and Spokane River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 197‐220. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00605.x Abstract: In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin‐scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from ?3.8 to 36%. Changes in temperature were expected to be between 0.02 and 3.9°C. In the Spokane River region, changes in precipitation were expected to be between ?6.7 and 17.9%. Changes in temperature appeared between 0.1 and 3.5°C over a period of the next five decades between 2010 and 2060. Without bias‐correcting the simulated streamflow, in the Boise River basin, change in peak flows (March through June) was projected to range from ?58 to +106 m³/s and, for the Spokane River basin, the range was expected to be from ?198 to +88 m³/s. Both the basins exhibited substantial variability in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and recharge estimates, and this knowledge of possible hydrologic impacts at the watershed scale can help the stakeholders with possible options in their decision‐making process.     

Hydrologic Modeling Uncertainty Resulting From Land Cover Misclassification1

Abstract: A stochastic, spatially explicit method for assessing the impact of land cover classification error on distributed hydrologic modeling is presented. One‐hundred land cover realizations were created by systematically altering the North American Landscape Characterization land cover data according to the dataset’s misclassification matrix. The matrix indicates the probability of errors of omission in land cover classes and is used to assess the uncertainty in hydrologic runoff simulation resulting from parameter estimation based on land cover. These land cover realizations were used in the GIS‐based Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool in conjunction with topography and soils data to generate input to the physically‐based Kinematic Runoff and Erosion model. Uncertainties in modeled runoff volumes resulting from these land cover realizations were evaluated in the Upper San Pedro River basin for 40 watersheds ranging in size from 10 to 100 km² under two rainfall events of differing magnitudes and intensities. Simulation results show that model sensitivity to classification error varies directly with respect to watershed scale, inversely to rainfall magnitude and are mitigated or magnified by landscape variability depending on landscape composition.     

CHANGING NEAR‐STREAM LAND USE AND RWER CHANNEL MORPHOLOGY IN THE VENEZUELAN ANDES1

ABSTRACT: The shape of a river channel is linked to surrounding land use through interacting hydrologic and geologic processes. This study analyzes the relationship between the change in near‐stream land use and the shape of the adjacent river channel over time. Three watersheds in the foothills of the Venezuelan Andes that have experienced differing degrees of development were studied to determine river channel width, sinuosity, and position relative to surrounding land use. Change in land use over time was obtained from multiple‐date aerial photographs (1946 and 1980) referenced to 1996 Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery, and verified by field inspection. Measurements of land‐use type and amount and river channel morphology from the two dates were made using geographic information system (GIS) methods. The three watersheds differed in the extent of deforestation, the location of remaining forested land, and how much land‐use change had already occurred by 1946. Change in river channel morphology was greatest at the most deforested sites. Valley shape and channel constraint also had a discernible effect on change in channel morphology. This study introduces a method for analyzing change in coupled terrestrial‐aquatic systems based on multiple‐date, remotely sensed data and GIS analysis of spatial properties. The results document human impacts on river channels through a comparison of multiple watersheds over a 35‐year time interval.     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON MOUNTAIN WATERSHEDS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Global climate change due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has serious potential impacts on water resources in the Pacific Northwest. Climate scenarios produced by general circulation models (GCMs) do not provide enough spatial specificity for studying water resources in mountain watersheds. This study uses dynamical downscaling with a regional climate model (RCM) driven by a GCM to simulate climate change scenarios. The RCM uses a subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation and land surface cover to simulate surface climate at the spatial scale suitable for the representation of topographic effects over mountainous regions. Numerical experiments have been performed to simulate the present-day climatology and the climate conditions corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The RCM results indicate an average warming of about 2.5°C, and precipitation generally increases over the Pacific Northwest and decreases over California. These simulations were used to drive a distributed hydrology model of two snow dominated watersheds, the American River and Middle Fork Flathead, in the Pacific Northwest to obtain more detailed estimates of the sensitivity of water resources to climate change. Results show that as more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow in the warmer climate, there is a 60 percent reduction in snowpack and a significant shift in the seasonal pattern of streamflow in the American River. Much less drastic changes are found in the Middle Fork Flathead where snowpack is only reduced by 18 percent and the seasonal pattern of streamflow remains intact. This study shows that the impacts of climate change on water resources are highly region specific. Furthermore, under the specific climate change scenario, the impacts are largely driven by the warming trend rather than the precipitation trend, which is small.     

Changes in Hydrology of the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh and Corresponding Impacts on Water Resources

The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh is an example of water‐related catastrophes in a major rural river basin where limitations in quantity, quality, and timing of available water are producing disastrous conditions. Water availability limitations are modifying the hydrologic characteristics especially when water allocation is controlled from the upstream Farakka Barrage. This study presents the changes and consequences in the hydrologic regime due to climate‐ and human‐induced stresses. Flow duration curves (FDCs), rainfall elasticity, and temperature sensitivity were used to assess the pre‐ and post‐barrage water flow patterns. Hydrologic and climate indices were computed to provide insight on hydro‐climatic variability and trend. Significant increases in temperature, evapotranspiration, hot days, heating, and cooling degree days indicate the region is heading toward a warmer climate. Moreover, increase in high‐intensity rainfall of short duration is making the region prone to extreme floods. FDCs depict a large reduction in river flows between pre‐ and post‐barrage periods, resulting in lower water storage capacity. The reduction in freshwater flow increased the extent and intensity of salinity intrusion. This freshwater scarcity is reducing livelihood options considerably and indirectly forcing population migration from the delta region. Understanding the causes and directions of hydrologic changes is essential to formulate improve water resources management in the region.     

MODELING ACTUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM FORESTED WATERSHEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: About 50 to 80 percent of precipitation in the southeastern United States returns to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration. As evapotranspiration is a major component in the forest water balances, accurately quantifying it is critical to predicting the effects of forest management and global change on water, sediment, and nutrient yield from forested watersheds. However, direct measurement of forest evapotranspiration on a large basin or a regional scale is not possible. The objectives of this study were to develop an empirical model to estimate long‐term annual actual evapotranspiration (ART) for forested watersheds and to quantify spatial AET patterns across the southeast. A geographic information system (GIS) database including land cover, daily streamflow, and climate was developed using long term experimental and monitoring data from 39 forested watersheds across the region. Using the stepwise selection method implemented in a statistical modeling package, a long term annual AET model was constructed. The final multivariate linear model includes four independent variables—annual precipitation, watershed latitude, watershed elevation, and percentage of forest coverage. The model has an adjusted R² of 0.794 and is sufficient to predict long term annual ART for forested watersheds across the southeastern United States. The model developed by this study may be used to examine the spatial variability of water availability, estimate annual water loss from mesoscale watersheds, and project potential water yield change due to forest cover change.     

Decoupling Streamflow Responses to Climate Variability and Land Use/Cover Changes in a Watershed in Northern China

Restored annual streamflow (Q_r) and measured daily streamflow of the Chaohe watershed located in northern China and associated long‐term climate and land use/cover data were used to explore the effects of land use/cover change and climate variability on the streamflow during 1961‐2009. There were no significant changes in annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration, whereas Q_r decreased significantly by 0.81 mm/yr (p < 0.001) over the study period with a change point in 1999. We used 1961‐1998 as the baseline period (BP) and 1999‐2009 the change period (CP). The mean Q_r during the CP decreased by 39.4 mm compared with that in the BP. From 1979 to 2009, the grassland area declined by 69.6%, and the forest and shrublands increased by 105.4 and 73.1%, respectively. The land use/cover change and climate variability contributed for 58.4 and 41.6% reduction in mean annual Q_r, respectively. Compared with the BP, median and high flows in the CP decreased by 38.8 and up to 75.5%, respectively. The study concludes that large‐scale ecological restoration and watershed management in northern China has greatly decreased water yield and reduced high flows due to the improved land cover by afforestation leading to higher water loss through evapotranspiration. At a large watershed scale, land use/cover change could play as much of an important role as climate variability on water resources.     

INTEGRATING LANDSCAPE ASSESSMENT AND HYDROLOGIC MODELING FOR LAND COVER CHANGE ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Significant land cover changes have occurred in the watersheds that contribute runoff to the upper San Pedro River in Sonora, Mexico, and southeast Arizona. These changes, observed using a series of remotely sensed images taken in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, have been implicated in the alteration of the basin hydrologic response. The Cannonsville subwatershed, located in the Catskill/Delaware watershed complex that delivers water to New York City, provides a contrast in land cover change. In this region, the Cannonsville watershed condition has improved over a comparable time period. A landscape assessment tool using a geographic information system (GIS) has been developed that automates the parameterization of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and KINEmatic Runoff and EROSion (KINEROS) hydrologic models. The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool was used to prepare parameter input files for the Upper San Pedro Basin, a subwatershed within the San Pedro undergoing significant changes, and the Cannonsville watershed using historical land cover data. Runoff and sediment yield were simulated using these models. In the Cannonsville watershed, land cover change had a beneficial impact on modeled watershed response due to the transition from agriculture to forest land cover. Simulation results for the San Pedro indicate that increasing urban and agricultural areas and the simultaneous invasion of woody plants and decline of grasslands resulted in increased annual and event runoff volumes, flashier flood response, and decreased water quality due to sediment loading. These results demonstrate the usefulness of integrating remote sensing and distributed hydrologic models through the use of GIS for assessing watershed condition and the relative impacts of land cover transitions on hydrologic response.     

Water Balances of Two Piedmont Headwater Catchments: Implications for Regional Hydrologic Landscape Classification

In the Piedmont of North Carolina, a traditionally water‐rich region, reservoirs that serve over 1 million people are under increasing pressure due to naturally occurring droughts and increasing land development. Innovative development approaches aim to maintain hydrologic conditions of the undisturbed landscape, but are based on insufficient target information. This study uses the hydrologic landscape concept to evaluate reference hydrology in small headwater catchments surrounding Falls Lake, a reservoir serving Raleigh and the greater Triangle area. Researchers collected one year of detailed data on water balance components, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, and shallow subsurface storage from two headwater catchments representative of two hydrologic landscapes defined by differences in soils and topographic characteristics. The two catchments are similar in size and lie within the same physiographic region, and during the study period they showed similar water balances of 26‐30% Q, ?4 to 5% ΔS, 59‐65% evapotranspiration, and 9‐10% G. However, the steeper, more elevated catchment exhibited perennial streamflow and nongrowing season runoff ratios (Q/P) of 33%, whereas the flat, low‐lying stream was drier during the growing season and exhibited Q/P ratios of 52% during the nongrowing season. A hydrologic landscape defined by topography and soil characteristics helps characterize local‐scale reference hydrology and may contribute to better land management decisions.     

GIS‐BASED HYIROLOGIC MODELING OF RIPARIAN AREAS: IMPLICATIONS FOR STREAM WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Riparian buffers have potential for reducing excess nutrient levels in surface water. Spatial variation in riparian buffer effectiveness is well recognized, yet researchers and managers still lack effective general tools for understanding the relevance of different hydrologic settings. We present several terrain‐based GIS models to predict spatial patterns of shallow, subsurface hydrologic flux and riparian hydrology. We then link predictions of riparian hydrology to patterns of nutrient export in order to demonstrate potential for augmenting the predictive power of land use/land cover (LU/LC) maps. Using predicted hydrology in addition to LUILC, we observed increases in the explained variation of nutrient exports from 290 sites across Lower Michigan. The results suggest that our hydrologic predictions relate more strongly to patterns of nutrient export than the presence or absence of wetland vegetation, and that in fact the influence of vegetative structure largely depends on its hydrologic context. Such GIS models are useful and complimentary tools for exploring the role of hydrologic routing in riparian ecosystem function and stream water quality. Modeling efforts that take a similar GIS approach to material transport might be used to further explore the causal implications of riparian buffers in heterogeneous watersheds.     

Evaluating cumulative effects of disturbance on the hydrologic function of bogs,fens, and mires

Few quantitative studies have been done on the hydrology of fens, bogs, and mires. Consequently predicting the cumulative impacts of disturbances on their hydrologic functions is extremely difficult. For example, few data are available on the role of bogs and fens with respect to flood desynchronization and shoreline anchoring. However, recent studies suggest that very small amounts of groundwater discharge are sufficient to radically modify mire surface-water chemistry, and consequently, vegetation communities and their associated surface-water hydrology. Bogs and fens are, in a sense, hydrobiologic systems, and any evaluation of cumulative impacts will have to (1) consider the complicated and little understood interactions among wetland hydrology, water chemistry, and biota, and (2) place the effect of individual wetland impacts within the context of the cumulative impacts contributed to the watershed from other geomorphic areas and land uses.It is difficult to evaluate the potential cumulative impacts on wetland hydrology because geologic settings of wetlands are often complex and the methods used to measure wetland streamflow, groundwater flow, and evapotranspiration are inexact (Winter 1988). This is especially so for bogs, fens, and mires underlain by thick organic soils. These wetlands, found in the circumboreal areas of North America, Europe, and Asia, are major physiographic features in eastern North America, northern Europe, and Siberia (Kivenen and Pakarinen 1981, Gore 1983, Glaser and Janssens 1986). Their very scale makes it difficult to quantify the hydrologic function accurately. The hydrology of small bogs and fens found elsewhere is just as poorly understood because of conflicting conceptual models of pertinent hydrologic processes.This article (1) reviews our current understanding of the hydrologic function of bogs, fens, and mires at different scales and in different physiographic settings and (2) presents hypotheses on potential cumulative impacts on the hydrologic function that might occur with multiple disturbances.     

The Sensitivity of California Water Resources to Climate Change Scenarios1

Abstract: Using the latest available General Circulation Model (GCM) results we present an assessment of climate change impacts on California hydrology and water resources. The approach considers the output of two GCMs, the PCM and the HadCM3, run under two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: the high emission A1fi and the low emission B1. The GCM output was statistically downscaled and used in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale distributed hydrologic model to derive inflows to major reservoirs in the California Central Valley. Historical inflows used as inputs to the water resources model CalSim II were modified to represent the climate change perturbed conditions for water supply deliveries, reliability, reservoir storage and changes to variables of environmental concern. Our results show greater negative impacts to California hydrology and water resources than previous assessments of climate change impacts in the region. These impacts, which translate into smaller streamflows, lower reservoir storage and decreased water supply deliveries and reliability, will be especially pronounced later in the 21st Century and south of the San Francisco bay Delta. The importance of considering how climate change impacts vary for different temporal, spatial, and institutional conditions in addition to the average impacts is also demonstrated.     

PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability: An indicator approach

This paper analyses the vulnerability of South African agriculture to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. Nineteen environmental and socio‐economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of the study show that the regions most exposed to climate change and variability do not always overlap with those experiencing high sensitivity or low adaptive capacity. Furthermore, vulnerability to climate change and variability is intrinsically linked with social and economic development. The Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, which have high levels of infrastructure development, high literacy rates, and low shares of agriculture in total GDP, are relatively low on the vulnerability index. In contrast, the highly vulnerable regions of Limpopo, Kwazulu‐Natal and the Eastern Cape are characterised by densely populated rural areas, large numbers of small‐scale farmers, high dependency on rain‐fed agriculture and high land degradation. These large differences in the extent of vulnerability among provinces suggest that policymakers should develop region‐specific policies and address climate change at the local level.