Carbon storage versus fossil fuel substitution: a climate change mitigation option for two different land use categories based on short and long rotation forestry in India

Short rotation bioenergy crops for energy production are considered an effective means to mitigate the greenhouse effect, mainly due to their ability to substitute fossil fuels. Alternatively, carbon can be sequestered and stored in the living biomass. This paper compares the two land use categories (forest land and non-forest land) for two management practices (short rotation vs. long rotation) to study mitigation potential of afforestation and fossil fuel substitution as compared to carbon storage. Significant carbon benefit can be obtained in the long run from using lands for growing short rotation energy crops and substituting fossil fuels by the biomass thus produced, as opposed to sequestering carbon in the biomass of the trees. When growth rates are high and harvest is used in a sustainable manner (i.e., replanting after every harvest), the opportunities for net carbon reductions appear to be fossil fuel substitution, rather than storage in ecosystem biomass. Our results suggest that at year 100 a total of 216 Mg C ha⁻¹ is sequestered for afforestation/reforestation using long rotation sal (Shorea robusta Gaertn.f) species, as opposed to offset of 412 Mg C ha⁻¹ for carbon storage and fossil fuel substitution for short rotation poplar (Populus Deltoides Marsh) plantations. The bioenergy option results in a continuous stream of about 3 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ of carbon benefits per year on forest land and 4 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ on non-forest land. Earlier studies have shown that in India waste land availability for establishing energy plantations is in the range of 9.6 to 36.5 Mha. Thus, using the 758 Tg biomass per year generated from 9.6 Mha waste land gives a mitigation potential in the range of 227 to 303 Tg C per year for carbon storage and fossil fuel substitution from poplar plantation for substituting coal based power generation. Depending upon the land availability for plantation, the potential for energy generation is in the range of 11,370 PJ, possibly amounting to a bioenergy supply of 43% of the total projected energy consumption in 2015. Further studies are needed to estimate the mitigation potential of other species with different productivities for overall estimation of the economic feasibility and social acceptability in a tropical country like India.     

基于InVEST-PLUS模型的淮北市碳储量时空演变及预测

研究土地利用时空演变对生态系统碳储量的影响,对研究区未来的国土空间规划以及减排增汇提供理论依据.基于1985、1995、2005、2015和2020年这5期土地利用数据,结合InVEST模型分析了研究区碳储量时空变化,运用PLUS模型预测研究区2035年自然发展情景、耕地保护情景、生态保护情景以及耕地和生态双保护情景土地利用变化并估算不同情景下的生态系统碳储量.结果表明:①1985~2020年研究区耕地面积持续减少,2015~2020年土地利用变化较快,综合土地利用动态度达到了34.62 %;②1985~2020年碳储量呈下降趋势,减少1.55×10⁵ t,其中在2005~2015年间,碳储量减少了1.22×10⁵ t,年均减少量达1.22×10⁴ t;③碳储量较高区域分布在研究区的东部,碳储量较低区域分布在研究区中部和西北部;耕地碳储量占比从66.89 %下降到57.73 %,但耕地仍是研究区最主要的碳库;其他地类向草地和林地转化有利于生态系统碳储量的增加;④2035年,自然发展情景、耕地保护情景、生态保护情景以及双保护情景下的碳储量分别为81.77×10⁵ 、82.45×10⁵、82.82×10⁵和82.51×10⁵ t.     

Development of an agroforestry carbon sequestration project in Khammam district,India

This paper addresses methodological issues in estimating carbon (C) sequestration potential, baseline determination, additionality and leakage in Khammam district, Andhra Pradesh, southern part of India. Technical potential for afforestation on cultivable wastelands, fallow, and marginal croplands was considered for Eucalyptus clonal plantations. Field studies for aboveground and belowground biomass, woody litter, and soil organic carbon for baseline and project scenarios were conducted to estimate the carbon sequestration potential. The baseline carbon stock was estimated to be 45.3 t C/ha, predominately in soils. The additional carbon sequestration potential under the project scenario for 30 years is estimated to be 12.8 t C/ha/year inclusive of harvest regimes and carbon emissions due to biomass burning and fertilizer application. Considering carbon storage in harvested wood, an additional 45% carbon benefit can be accounted. The project scenario has a higher benefit/cost ratio compared to the baseline scenario. The initial investment cost requirement, however, is high and lack of access to investment is a significant barrier for adoption of agroforestry in the district.

Scenarios for the carbon balance of Finnish forests and wood products

The objective of this paper is to compare different scenarios for carbon (C) sequestration in the forest sector in Finland. Forest inventory data was used as input data to simulate the dynamics of C sequestration with a gap-type forest simulation model and a wood product model. In the baseline scenario, current forest management practices were applied. In another scenario, current recommendations for forest management were applied, which resulted in more intensive harvesting than in the baseline scenario. Both scenarios were also applied under changing climatic conditions to demonstrate the possible effect of climate change on C sequestration.This study demonstrates that C sequestration assessments should include not only C in the biomass of trees, but also C in the soil and in the wood products, as well as interactions between the respective pools. Partial assessments are likely to result in misleading estimates of the actual C sequestration. Forest management affects the distribution of C between the pools and the changing climate is likely to change this distribution. The Kyoto Protocol deals with only a limited part of the forestry and forest C cycle and C accounting accordingly can provide results that depart substantially from more complete accounting.     

Forestry for sustainable biomass production and carbon sequesteration in India

A sustainable forestry scenario aimed at meeting the projected biomassdemands, halting deforestation and regenerating degraded forests wasdeveloped and analyzed for additionality of mitigation and cost-effectivenessfor India. Similarly, mitigation potential of a commercial forestry scenarioaimed at meeting the biomass demands from forestry activities on privateland was assessed. India has a significant scale baseline scenario afforestationand effective forest conservation activities. India is afforesting at an averagegross rate of 1.55 × 10⁶ ha yr^-1 over the past 10 years, while the gross deforestation rate was 0.272 × 10⁶ ha yr^-1 during the same period. The sustainable forestry scenario could lead to an additional carbon (C) stock of 237 × 10⁶ Mg C during 2000 to 2012, while the commercial forestry scenario apart from meeting all the incremental biomass demands (estimated for 2000 to 2015) could potentially lead to an additional carbon stock of 78 × 10⁶Mg C during 2000 to 2012. Short- and Long-rotation forestry activities arecommercially viable. With appropriate policies and financial incentives allthe industrial wood, sawnwood and commercial fuelwood requirementcould be met through commercial forestry, so that government funds couldbe dedicated for conserving state owned forests and meeting subsistencebiomass demands. The commercial forestry activities could receive financialsupport under greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement programmes. The government, however, needs to develop institutions and guidelines to process, evaluate, approve and monitor forestry sector mitigation projects.     

Prospects for carbon-neutral housing: the influence of greater wood use on the carbon footprint of a single-family residence

This paper examines the energy and carbon balance of two residential house alternatives; a typical wood frame home using more conventional materials (brick cladding, vinyl windows, asphalt shingles, and fibreglass insulation) and a similar wood frame house that also maximizes wood use throughout (cedar shingles and siding, wood windows, and cellulose insulation) in place of the more typical materials used – a wood-intensive house. Carbon emission and fossil fuel consumption balances were established for the two homes based on the cumulative total of three subsystems: (1) forest harvesting and regeneration; (2) cradle-to-gate product manufacturing, construction, and replacement effects over a 100-year service life; and (3) end-of-life effects – landfilling with methane capture and combustion or recovery of biomass for energy production.The net carbon balance of the wood-intensive house showed a complete offset of the manufacturing emissions by the credit given to the system for forest re-growth. Including landfill methane emissions, the wood-intensive life cycle yielded 20 tons of CO₂e emissions compared to 72 tons for the typical house. The wood-intensive home's life cycle also consumed only 45% of the fossil fuels used in the typical house.Diverting wood materials from the landfill at the end of life improved the life cycle balances of both the typical and wood-intensive houses. The carbon balance of the wood-intensive house was 5.2 tons of CO₂e permanently removed from the atmosphere (a net carbon sink) as compared to 63.4 of total CO₂e emissions for the typical house. Substitution of wood fuel for natural gas and coal in electricity production led to a net energy balance of the wood-intensive house that was nearly neutral, 87.1 GJ energy use, 88% lower than the scenario in which the materials were landfilled.Allocating biomass generation and carbon sequestration in the forest on an economic basis as opposed to a mass basis significantly improves the life cycle balances of both houses. Employing an economic allocation method to the forest leads to 3–5 times greater carbon sequestration and fossil fuel substitution attributable to the house, which is doubled in forestry regimes that remove stumps and slash as fuel. Thus, wood use has the potential to create a significantly negative carbon footprint for a house up to the point of occupancy and even offset a portion of heating and cooling energy use and carbon emissions; the wood-intensive house is energy and carbon neutral for 34–68 years in Ottawa and has the potential to be a net carbon sink and energy producer in a more temperate climate like San Francisco.     

Spatial and long-term variability of soil loss due to crop harvesting and the importance relative to water erosion: A case study from Belgium

The harvest of crops such as sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.), potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), leek (Allium porrum L.) and carrot (Daucus carota L.) causes soil loss from arable land because soil adhering to the crop and soil clods that failed to be separated by the harvesting machine, are exported from the field together with these harvested crops. These soil losses can be of the same order of magnitude as soil losses caused by water erosion processes, but are often neglected in soil erosion research. In this article we developed a methodology to investigate the spatial and long-term (1846–2004) variability of soil loss due to crop harvesting (SLCH) in Belgium and the spatial distribution of the importance of SLCH relative to soil losses caused by water erosion processes in Flanders. The study is based on long-term time series of soil tare data of crop processing factories and area and crop yield statistics. Until the middle of the 20th century, potato and roots and tubers grown as second crop, had the largest share in the SLCH-crop growing area in Belgium. Sugar beet gained importance from the end of the 19th century onwards and has now, of all SLCH crops, the largest growing area. We could estimate that, partly due to increasing crop yields and the mechanisation of the harvesting process, SLCH per hectare of cropland increased from 0.4 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in 1846 to 2.4 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the 1970s and early 1980s. Since then mean annual soil losses decreased again to 1.8 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in 2004. It was assessed that total yearly SLCH in Belgium rose from more than 575,000 Mg in the middle of the 19th century to more than 1.7 × 10⁶ Mg in the 1970s and early 1980s, while current SLCH values are 1.4 × 10⁶ Mg. We estimated that since 1846, more than 163 × 10⁶ Mg soil was exported from cropland in Belgium through this erosion process, which corresponds to 109 hm³ or an average soil profile truncation of 1.15 cm. Average sediment export from cropland in Flanders was 3.7 Mg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in 2002, of which 46% was due to SLCH and 54% was due to water erosion processes. The relative importance of SLCH varied, depending on the agricultural region, between 38% and 94%.     

Climate Change Mitigation Activities in the Philippine Forestry Sector: Application of the COMAP Model

The forest sector in the Philippines has the potential to be amajor sink for carbon (C). The present study was conducted to evaluatepotential forestry mitigation options in the Philippines using the Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP)model. The baseline scenario (BAU) assumes that current trends continue upto the year 2030 (`business-as-usual'). Two mitigation scenarios wereevaluated: high scenario (HS) and low scenario (LS). The former ispatterned largely from the government's forest master plan while thelatter assumes a 50% lower success rate of the master plan.The results of the analyses show that by 2030, the total C stock of thePhilippine forest sector in the baseline scenario decreases to 814× 10⁶ Mg C,down by 37% compared to the 1990 level. The C stocks of the HS andLS mitigation scenarios were 22% and 18% higher than the BAU,respectively. Of the mitigation options assessed, long rotation plantationsand forest protection activities produce the greatest C gain (199 and 104× 10⁶ Mg, respectively under HS). The not present value (NPV)of benefits is highest in the bioenergyoption with $24.48 per Mg C (excluding opportunity costs) at a realdiscount rate of 12%. However, the investment and life cycle costs arealso highest using bioenergy.The study also estimated potential investments needed under the mitigationscenarios. The investment requirement for the LS amounts to $263× 10⁶ while for the HS it is $748 × 10⁶. Finally, policy issues anddecisions that may be useful for the Philippines to evaluate LULUCFmitigation options under the UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol, are identified anddiscussed.     

基于LEAP模型的京津冀地区钢铁行业中长期减排潜力分析

京津冀地区是我国钢铁行业集中布局的地区,也是大气污染最突出的地区.分析京津冀地区钢铁行业各类治污工具的中长期减排影响,对于选择最优减排措施、加快推动该地区大气污染治理意义重大.构建基于LEAP模型的京津冀地区钢铁行业模型,以2015年为基准年,以每5 a为一个时间节点,结合规模减排、结构减排、技术减排、末端治理4种减排措施,模拟计算了4种单一政策情景及4种组合政策情景下2015-2030年京津冀地区钢铁行业主要污染物（SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5、CO₂）排放量及相应的减排影响.结果表明:在单一政策情景下,规模减排情景对5种污染物减排效果均十分显著.在组合政策情景下,4种减排措施叠加的综合减排情景效果最好,在该情景下京津冀地区钢铁行业到2030年SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5、CO₂排放量将分别削减27.73×104、17.85×104、42.94×104、27.35×104、23.15×107 t;在规模-末端治理情景下,除CO₂外其余污染物减排效果仅次于综合减排情景;规模-结构减排情景对PM₁₀和PM_2.5的减排效果相对明显;规模-技术减排情景对CO₂、SO₂、NO_x的减排效果相对明显.研究显示,京津冀地区钢铁行业需要在大力淘汰落后过剩产能、缩减产量等源头治理措施的基础上,持续加强末端治理、提高废钢比例、提升节能减排技术水平等协同治理能力,以提高治污减排效果.      

Decay of cacti and carbon cycling

Cacti contain large quantities of Ca-oxalate biominerals, with C derived from atmospheric CO₂. Their death releases these biominerals into the environment, which subsequently transform to calcite via a monohydrocalcite intermediate. Here, the fate of Ca-oxalates released by plants in arid environments is investigated. This novel and widespread form of biomineralization has unexpected consequences on C cycling and calcite accumulation in areas with large numbers of cacti. The magnitude of this mineralization is revealed by studying the large columnar cactus Carnegiea gigantea (Engelm.) Britton and Rose in southwestern Arizona (locally called the saguaro). A large C. gigantea contains on the order of 1×10⁵ g of the Ca-oxalate weddellite—CaC₂O₄·2H₂O. In areas with high C. gigantea density, there is an estimated 40 g C_atm m⁻² sequestered in Ca-oxalates. Following the death of the plant, the weddellite transforms to calcite on the order to 10–20 years. In areas with high saguaro density, there is an estimated release of up to 2.4 g calcite m⁻² year⁻¹ onto the desert soil. Similar transformation mechanisms occur with the Ca-oxalates that are abundant in the majority of cacti. Thus, the total atmospheric C returned to the soil of areas with a high number density of cacti is large, suggesting that there may be a significant long-term accumulation of atmospheric C in these soils derived from Ca-oxalate biominerals. These findings demonstrate that plant decay in arid environments may have locally significant impacts on the Ca and inorganic C cycles.     

Global warming potential of emissions from rice paddies in Northeastern China

In this study, paddy fields in Jilin province which are flooded parcel of arable lands used for growing rice (Oryza sativa Linn.) were selected as the object. Long-term exploitation of paddy fields led to variations of soil organic carbon (SOC) and green house gases (GHGs) emissions which might contribute to global warming. In order to calculate the amount of global warming potentials (GWPs) of emissions from ricepaddies and find the correlations among rice yield, SOC storage and GWP, DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model was used to simulate SOC densities and fluxes of main GHGs emitted from paddy fields. After verification, simulation results were used to calculate SOC storages and 100-year GWPs from 1949 to 2009. Results indicated that SOC densities in depths of 0–10 cm, 10–20 cm and 20–30 cm all kept increasing. Average methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) fluxes were 278.55 kg carbon (kgC) ha⁻¹ a⁻¹ and 2.22 kg nitrogen (kgN) ha⁻¹ a⁻¹. The SOC storage (0–30 cm) had increased from 3.96 × 10⁹kgC in 1949 to 47.85 × 10⁹kgC in 2009. In addition, GWP emission was increasing exponentially in the past 61 years, from 0.16 × 10⁶ Mg carbon dioxide equivalents (CO₂-equivalents) to 66.36 × 10⁶ Mg CO₂-equivalents. Both SOC storage and GWP presented obviously linear relation to rice yields. Overall, the research suggested that long-term rice yields could be used to estimate the SOC storage and GWP variations.     

Estimating net primary production and annual plant carbon inputs, and modelling future changes in soil carbon stocks in arable farmlands of northern Japan

Soil C sequestration in croplands is deemed to be one of the most promising greenhouse gas mitigation options for Japan's agriculture. In this context, changes in soil C stocks in northern Japan's arable farming area over the period of 1971-2010, specifically in the region's typical Andosol (volcanic ash-derived) and non-Andosol soils, were simulated using soil-type-specific versions of the Rothamsted carbon model (RothC). The models were then used to predict the effects, over the period of 2011-2050, of three potential management scenarios: (i) baseline: maintenance of present crop residue returns and green manure crops, as well as composted cattle manure C inputs (24-34 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ applied on 3-55% of arable land according to crop), (ii) cattle manure: all arable fields receive 20 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ of composted cattle manure, increased C inputs from crop residues and present C inputs from green manure are assumed, and (iii) minimum input: all above-ground crop residues removed, no green manure crop, no cattle manure applied. Above- and below-ground residue biomass C inputs contributed by 8 major crops, and oats employed as a green manure crop, were drawn from yield statistics recorded at the township level and crop-specific allometric relationships (e.g. ratio of above-ground residue biomass to harvested biomass on a dry weight basis). Estimated crop net primary production (NPP) ranged from 1.60 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for adzuki bean to 8.75 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for silage corn. For the whole region (143 × 10³ ha), overall NPP was estimated at 952 ± 60 Gg C yr⁻¹ (6.66 ± 0.42 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). Plant C inputs to the soil also varied widely amongst the crops, ranging from 0.50 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for potato to 3.26 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for winter wheat. Annual plant C inputs to the soil were estimated at 360 ± 45 Gg C yr⁻¹ (2.52 ± 0.32 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), representing 38% of the cropland NPP. The RothC simulations suggest that the region's soil C stock (0-30 cm horizon), across all soils, has decreased from 13.96 Tg C (107.5 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) in 1970 to 12.46 Tg C (96.0 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) in 2010. For the baseline, cattle manure and minimum input scenarios, soil C stocks of 12.13, 13.27 and 9.82 Tg C, respectively, were projected for 2050. Over the period of 2011-2050, compared to the baseline scenario, soil C was sequestered (+0.219 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) by enhanced cattle manure application, but was lost (−0.445 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) under the minimum input scenario. The effect of variations of input data (monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation, plant C inputs and cattle manure C inputs) on the uncertainty of model outputs for each scenario was assessed using a Monte Carlo approach. Taking into account the uncertainty (standard deviation as % of the mean) for the model's outputs for 2050 (5.1-6.1%), it is clear that the minimum input scenario would lead to a rapid decrease in soil C stocks for arable farmlands in northern Japan.     

Modeling harvest and biomass removal effects on the forest carbon balance of the Midwest,USA

The objective of this study was to use an ecosystem process model, Biome-BGC, to explore the effects of different harvest scenarios on major components of the carbon budget of 205,000 km² of temperate forest in the Upper Midwest region of the U.S. We simulated seven harvest scenarios varying the (i) amount of harvest residue retained, (ii) total harvest area, and (iii) harvest type (clear-cut and selective) to assess the potential impacts on net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and total vegetation carbon. NBP was positive (C sink) in year 1 (2004) and generally decreased over the 50-year simulation period. More intensive management scenarios, those with a high percentage of clear-cut or a doubling of harvest area, decreased average NBP by a maximum of 58% and vegetation C by a maximum of 29% compared to the current harvest regime (base scenario), while less intensive harvest scenarios (low clear-cut or low area harvested) increased NBP. Yearly mean NPP changed less than 3% under the different scenarios. Vegetation carbon increased in all scenarios by at least 12%, except the two most intensive harvest scenarios, where vegetation carbon decreased by more than 8%. Varying the amount of harvest residue retention had a more profound effect on NBP than on vegetation C. Removing additional residue resulted in greater NBP over the 50-year period compared to the base simulation. Results from the seven model simulations suggest that managing for carbon storage and carbon sequestration are not mutually exclusive in Midwest forests.     

Greenhouse gas emissions in restored secondary tropical peat swamp forests

Restoration of deforested and drained tropical peat swamp forests is globally relevant in the context of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. The seasonal flux of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) in a restoration concession in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, was measured in the two contrasting land covers: shrubs and secondary forests growing on peatlands. We found that land covers had high, but insignificantly different, soil carbon stocks of 949?+?56 and 1126?+?147 Mg ha^?1, respectively. The mean annual CO₂ flux from the soil of shrub areas was 52.4?±?4.1 Mg ha^?1 year^?1, and from secondary peat swamp forests was 42.9?±?3.6 Mg ha^?1 year^?1. The significant difference in mean soil temperature in the shrubs (31.2 °C) and secondary peat swamp forests (26.3 °C) was responsible for the difference in total CO₂ fluxes of these sites. We also found the mean annual total soil respiration was almost equally partitioned between heterotrophic respiration (20.8?+?1.3 Mg ha^?1 year^?1) and autotrophic respiration (22.6?+?1.5 Mg ha^?1 year^?1). Lowered ground water level up to ??40 cm in both land covers caused the increase of CO₂ fluxes to 40–75%. These numbers contribute to the provision of emission factors for rewetted organic soils required in the national reporting using the 2013 Supplement of the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for wetlands as part of the obligation under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

     

基于达标约束的南京市环境空气质量情景模拟

以2030年南京市6项污染物达标为约束,在2015年大气污染物排放清单基础上,利用CMAQ模型分析了PM_(2.5)对南京本地不同前体物排放的敏感性,通过情景分析预测排放清单,模拟了4种减排情景的空气质量变化,最终获得达标约束下大气污染物总量控制指标.模拟结果显示,减少一次颗粒物PPM (primary particulate matter)排放对降低大气中的PM_(2.5)浓度最为有效;在周边地区减排的基础上,本地减少PPM排放对PM_(2.5)年均浓度下降的相对贡献可达88%,其次为NH_3、NOx、SO_2与VOCs减排,其相对贡献分别为10. 3%、5. 5%、3. 2%与0. 5%;相比2015年,4种情景下南京市主要大气污染物减排比例在22%～53%,未来控制活动水平对减排SO_2、NH_3与CO较有效,而NOx和VOCs末端治理方面还有较大空间;将SO_2、NOx、PM10、PM_(2.5)、BC、OC、CO、VOCs及NH_3的排放量分别控制在2. 43×104、8. 47×10~4、9. 42×10~4、3. 74×10~4、0. 19×10~4、0. 30×10~4、26. 56×10~4、13. 08×10~4及1. 50×10~4t以内时,预计南京市6项污染指标可以达到国家环境空气质量二级标准.     

Forestry Mitigation Options for Mexico: Finding Synergies between National Sustainable Development Priorities and Global Concerns

We examine carbon (C) reference and mitigation scenarios for the Mexicanforest sector between the year 2000 and 2030. Estimates are presentedseparately for the period 2008–2012.Future C emissions and capture are estimated using a simulation modelthat: a) allocates the country land use/land cover classes among differentfuture uses and categories using demand-based scenarios for forestryproducts; b) estimates the total C densities associated to each land usecategory, and c) determines the net carbon implications of the process ofland use/cover change according to the different scenarios.The options analyzed include both afforestation/reforestation, such ascommercial, bionenergy and restoration plantations, and agroforestrysystems, and forest conservation, through the sustainable management ofnative forests and forest protection.The total mitigation potential, estimated as the difference between the totallong-term carbon stock in the reference and the mitigation scenario reaches300 × 10⁶ Mg C in the year 2012 and increases to 1,382 × 10⁶ Mg C in 2030. The average net sequestration in the 30 year period is 46 × 10⁶ Mg C yr^-1, or 12.5 × 10⁶ Mg C yr^-1 within the period 2008 to 2012. The costs of selected mitigation options range from 0.7–3.5 Mg C^-1 to 35 Mg C^-1. Some options are cost effective.     

Application of Pesticide Sprays to Fresh Produce: A Risk Assessment for Hepatitis A and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Salmonella</Emphasis>

The purpose of this study was to quantify the transfer of viral and bacterial pathogens in water used to dilute pesticides sprayed onto the surfaces of cantaloupe, iceberg lettuce, and bell peppers. The average percent transfer of bacteria was estimated to range from 0.00021 to 9.4%, while average viral transfer ranged from 0.055 to 4.2%, depending on the type of produce. Based on these values the concentrations of hepatitis A virus (HAV) and Salmonella in water necessary to achieve a 1:10,000 annual risk of infection were calculated. Under worst case scenario assumptions, in which a pesticide is applied on the same day that the produce is harvested and when maximum transfer values are used, concentrations of 1.5 × 10⁻³ CFU Salmonella or 2.7 × 10⁻⁷ MPN HAV per 100 ml of the water used for application would result in 1:10,000 annual infection risk to anyone who consumes the fresh produce. If harvesting does not occur until at least 14 days after the application, to produce the same risk of infection, the numbers of Salmonella in 100 ml of water used to dilute the pesticides will be greater by up to five orders of magnitude, while the HAV numbers will have increased by up to two orders of magnitude. Based on the reported concentrations of enteric viruses in surface and ground waters in the United States, a 1:10,000 annual risk of infection could easily be exceeded with some groundwater sources used in the United States. To reduce the risks associated with the consumption of fresh produce, water used to prepare pesticides in spray applications should be evaluated for its microbiological quality.     

华北区域大气中羰基化合物体积分数水平及化学反应活性

为了解华北区域光化学污染特征,于2018年5月至2019年4月在石家庄和兴隆地区利用2,4-二硝基苯肼（DNPH）对空气中的羰基化合物进行采样,并利用高效液相色谱对采集样品进行分析,以了解该区域羰基化合物的组成、体积分数、来源、·OH损耗速率和臭氧生成潜势.本研究共测定了13种含羰基的挥发性有机物,其中体积分数最高的3种物质为丙酮、甲醛和乙醛[石家庄地区：（6.46±5.25）×10^-9、（3.76±2.29）×10^-9和（2.65±1.74）×10^-9;兴隆地区：（1.85±1.27）×10^-9、（1.29±1.02）×10^-9和（0.72±0.48）×10^-9];C1/C2和C2/C3值表明石家庄地区工业化水平较高,受机动车尾气和化石燃料燃烧等人为排放影响较明显;兴隆地区采样点处于背景区域,受自然源影响较大;石家庄地区对L_·OH贡献最大的3种物质分别为乙醛（1.77 s^-1）、甲醛（1.57 s^-1）和丁醛（0.42 s^-1）;兴隆地区对L_·OH贡献最大的3种物质为分别为甲醛（0.53 s^-1）、乙醛（0.47 s^-1）和丁醛（0.12 s^-1）;对O₃生成贡献最大的羰基化合物物种为甲醛和乙醛[石家庄地区：34.61×10^-9（以O₃计,下同）和16.73×10^-9;兴隆地区：11.77×10^-9和4.47×10^-9],且甲醛的最大臭氧生成潜势估算（OFP）远高于乙醛.     

Potential carbon sequestration in China’s forests

Forests are believed to be a major sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. There are 158.94 million hectares (Mha) of forests in China, accounting for 16.5% of its land area. These extensive forests may play a vital role in the global carbon (C) cycle as well as making a large contribution to the country’s economic and environmental well-being. Currently there is a trend towards increased development in the forests. Hence, accounting for the role and potential of the forests in the global carbon budget is very important.In this paper, we attempt to estimate the carbon emissions and sequestration by Chinese forests in 1990 and make projections for the following 60 years based on three scenarios, i.e. “baseline”, “trend” and “planning”. A computer model F-CARBON 1.0, which takes into account the different biomass density and growth rates for the forests in different age classes, the life time for biomass oxidation and decomposition, and the change in soil carbon between harvesting and reforestation, was developed by the authors and used to make the calculations and projections. Climate change is not modelled in this exercise.We calculate that forests in China annually accumulate 118.1 Mt C in growth of trees and 18.4 Mt in forest soils, and release 38.9 Mt, resulting in a net sequestration of 97.6 Mt C, corresponding to 16.8% of the national CO₂ emissions in 1990. From 1990 to 2050, soil carbon accumulation was projected to increase slightly while carbon emissions increases by 73, 77 and 84%, and net carbon sequestration increases by −21, 52 and 90% for baseline, trend and planning scenarios, respectively. Carbon sequestration by China’s forests under the planning scenario in 2000, 2010, 2030 and 2050 is approximately 20, 48, 111 and 142% higher than projected by the baseline scenario, and 8, 18, 34 and 26% higher than by the trend scenario, respectively. Over 9 Gt C is projected to accumulate in China’s forests from 1990 to 2050 under the planning scenario, and this is 73 and 23% larger than projected for the baseline and trend scenarios, respectively. During the period 2008–2012, Chinese forests are likely to have a net uptake of 667, 565 and 452 Mt C, respectively, for the planning, trend and baseline scenarios. We conclude that China’s forests have a large potential for carbon sequestration through forest development. Sensitivity analysis showed that the biggest uncertainty in the projection by the F-CARBON model came from the release coefficient of soil carbon between periods after harvesting and before reforestation.