U.S. Natural Resources and Climate Change: Concepts and Approaches for Management Adaptation

Public lands and waters in the United States traditionally have been managed using frameworks and objectives that were established under an implicit assumption of stable climatic conditions. However, projected climatic changes render this assumption invalid. Here, we summarize general principles for management adaptations that have emerged from a major literature review. These general principles cover many topics including: (1) how to assess climate impacts to ecosystem processes that are key to management goals; (2) using management practices to support ecosystem resilience; (3) converting barriers that may inhibit management responses into opportunities for successful implementation; and (4) promoting flexible decision making that takes into account challenges of scale and thresholds. To date, the literature on management adaptations to climate change has mostly focused on strategies for bolstering the resilience of ecosystems to persist in their current states. Yet in the longer term, it is anticipated that climate change will push certain ecosystems and species beyond their capacity to recover. When managing to support resilience becomes infeasible, adaptation may require more than simply changing management practices—it may require changing management goals and managing transitions to new ecosystem states. After transitions have occurred, management will again support resilience—this time for a new ecosystem state. Thus, successful management of natural resources in the context of climate change will require recognition on the part of managers and decisions makers of the need to cycle between “managing for resilience” and “managing for change.”     

Tree seedling establishment in dry tropics: an urgent need of interaction studies

The current anthropogenic activities and climate change are increasingly becoming a growing global concern for dry tropical forests. Worldwide, these ecologically important forests have degraded considerably since the past few decades due to such factors. These factors have harmful consequences on the vegetation structure and diversity especially tree seedlings, which may further aggravate climate change. Generally, the vegetation recovery is very slow and unpredictable in the dry tropics due to complex interaction among tree seedling, site (particularly, soil) and climatic conditions. We inculcated that a better understanding of the behavior of individuals of different tree species at seedling stage in dry forests is of immense importance. It is increasingly being recognized for explaining and managing the future composition of plant communities under changing environmental conditions. In this regard, the multi-factorial interaction studies under various resource–disturbance combinations are needed in dry tropical ecosystems to understand the: (1) impact of relative variability in resources and disturbances on the responses of tree seedlings of native species and (2) how the later relates to distinct functional and life history traits of the individual tree species. Most importantly, such studies would improve our limited understanding of how variation (natural and man-made) in nutrient availability, under the influence of other local environmental factors (such as water, light, grass competition, herbivory, fire, allelopathy and enhanced CO₂ conditions), would affect the dynamics of dry tropical forest community. It may help in the proper management of these forests. Moreover, it may prove helpful in the current climate change scenario, as change in forest community dynamics may have consequences on soil C sequestration and CO₂ efflux at global scale.     

Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty1

Stakhiv, Eugene Z., 2011. Pragmatic Approaches for Water Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1183–1196. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00589.x Abstract: Water resources management is in a difficult transition phase, trying to accommodate large uncertainties associated with climate change while struggling to implement a difficult set of principles and institutional changes associated with integrated water resources management. Water management is the principal medium through which projected impacts of global warming will be felt and ameliorated. Many standard hydrological practices, based on assumptions of a stationary climate, can be extended to accommodate numerous aspects of climate uncertainty. Classical engineering risk and reliability strategies developed by the water management profession to cope with contemporary climate uncertainties can also be effectively employed during this transition period, while a new family of hydrological tools and better climate change models are developed. An expansion of the concept of “robust decision making,” coupled with existing analytical tools and techniques, is the basis for a new approach advocated for planning and designing water resources infrastructure under climate uncertainty. Ultimately, it is not the tools and methods that need to be revamped as much as the suite of decision rules and evaluation principles used for project justification. They need to be aligned to be more compatible with the implications of a highly uncertain future climate trajectory, so that the hydrologic effects of that uncertainty are correctly reflected in the design of water infrastructure.     

Protecting endangered species under future climate change: From single-species preservation to an anticipatory policy approach

Anthropogenic climate climate change presents a unique challenge for endangered species policy and an opportunity for policy makers to develop a more predictive and robust approach to preserving the nation's biological resources. Biological and ecological reactions to shifting climate conditions and the potential feedbacks and synergistic effects of such changes may threaten the well-being of many species, particularly of those already in jeopardy of extinction. The United States Endangered Species Act of 1973 will fail to keep pace with increasing numbers of species needing protection as long as it remains focused on protecting species individually. The actmust not be abandoned, however; it holds tremendous promise for preserving biological diversity through a more proactive, anticipatory perspective. The current Endangered Species Act should be reinforced and improved by better integration of scientific expertise into habitat and community preservation listing decisions and recovery plan devlopment. Given the uncertainties surrounding long-term environmental consequences of human activities and resource use, a longer-term perspective must be integrated into all efforts to protect our biotic resources. Under appointment from the Graduate Fellowships for Global Change administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Ecducation for the US Department of Energy.     

Climate Change, Coral Reef Ecosystems, and Management Options for Marine Protected Areas

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more “traditional” stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.     

PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGIONAL ASSESSMENT: THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER RESOURCES OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate vanability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamfiow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate.     

Approaches to Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Species: A Guide to Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process

Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future.     

Western Land Managers will Need all Available Tools for Adapting to Climate Change,Including Grazing: A Critique of Beschta et al.

In a previous article, Beschta et al. (Environ Manag 51(2):474–491, 2013) argue that grazing by large ungulates (both native and domestic) should be eliminated or greatly reduced on western public lands to reduce potential climate change impacts. The authors did not present a balanced synthesis of the scientific literature, and their publication is more of an opinion article. Their conclusions do not reflect the complexities associated with herbivore grazing. Because grazing is a complex ecological process, synthesis of the scientific literature can be a challenge. Legacy effects of uncontrolled grazing during the homestead era further complicate analysis of current grazing impacts. Interactions of climate change and grazing will depend on the specific situation. For example, increasing atmospheric CO₂ and temperatures may increase accumulation of fine fuels (primarily grasses) and thus increase wildfire risk. Prescribed grazing by livestock is one of the few management tools available for reducing fine fuel accumulation. While there are certainly points on the landscape where herbivore impacts can be identified, there are also vast grazed areas where impacts are minimal. Broad scale reduction of domestic and wild herbivores to help native plant communities cope with climate change will be unnecessary because over the past 20–50 years land managers have actively sought to bring populations of native and domestic herbivores in balance with the potential of vegetation and soils. To cope with a changing climate, land managers will need access to all available vegetation management tools, including grazing.     

Climate Change and River Ecosystems: Protection and Adaptation Options

Rivers provide a special suite of goods and services valued highly by the public that are inextricably linked to their flow dynamics and the interaction of flow with the landscape. Yet most rivers are within watersheds that are stressed to some extent by human activities including development, dams, or extractive uses. Climate change will add to and magnify risks that are already present through its potential to alter rainfall, temperature, runoff patterns, and to disrupt biological communities and sever ecological linkages. We provide an overview of the predicted impacts based on published studies to date, discuss both reactive and proactive management responses, and outline six categories of management actions that will contribute substantially to the protection of valuable river assets. To be effective, management must be place-based focusing on local watershed scales that are most relevant to management scales. The first priority should be enhancing environmental monitoring of changes and river responses coupled with the development of local scenario-building exercises that take land use and water use into account. Protection of a greater number of rivers and riparian corridors is essential, as is conjunctive groundwater/surface water management. This will require collaborations among multiple partners in the respective river basins and wise land use planning to minimize additional development in watersheds with valued rivers. Ensuring environmental flows by purchasing or leasing water rights and/or altering reservoir release patterns will be needed for many rivers. Implementing restoration projects proactively can be used to protect existing resources so that expensive reactive restoration to repair damage associated with a changing climate is minimized. Special attention should be given to diversifying and replicating habitats of special importance and to monitoring populations at high risk or of special value so that management interventions can occur if the risks to habitats or species increase significantly over time.     

Adaptation in Practice: How Managers of Nature Conservation Areas in Eastern England are Responding to Climate Change

Although good general principles for climate change adaptation in conservation have been developed, it is proving a challenge to translate them into more detailed recommendations for action. To improve our understanding of what adaptation might involve in practice, we investigated how the managers of conservation areas in eastern England are considering climate change. We used a written questionnaire and semi-structured interviews to collect information from managers of a range of different conservation areas. Topics investigated include the impacts of climate change perceived to be of the greatest importance; adaptation goals being set; management actions being carried out to achieve these goals; sources of information used; and perceived barriers to taking action. We identified major themes and issues that were apparent across the sites studied. Specifically, we found ways in which adaptation had been informed by past experience; different strategies relating to whether to accept or resist change; approaches for coping with more variable conditions; ways of taking a large-scale approach and managing sites as networks; some practical examples of aspects of adaptive management; and examples of the role that other sectors can play in both constraining and increasing a conservation area’s capacity to adapt. We discuss the relevance of these findings to the growing discussion in conservation about identifying adaptation pathways for different conservation areas and a potential progression from a focus on resilience and incremental change to embracing “transformation.” Though adaptation will be place-specific, we believe these findings provide useful lessons for future action in both England and other countries.     

The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework: A Tool for Incorporating Climate Change into Natural Resource Management

As natural resource management agencies and conservation organizations seek guidance on responding to climate change, myriad potential actions and strategies have been proposed for increasing the long-term viability of some attributes of natural systems. Managers need practical tools for selecting among these actions and strategies to develop a tailored management approach for specific targets at a given location. We developed and present one such tool, the participatory Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework, which considers the effects of climate change in the development of management actions for particular species, ecosystems and ecological functions. Our framework is based on the premise that effective adaptation of management to climate change can rely on local knowledge of an ecosystem and does not necessarily require detailed projections of climate change or its effects. We illustrate the ACT framework by applying it to an ecological function in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho, USA)-water flows in the upper Yellowstone River. We suggest that the ACT framework is a practical tool for initiating adaptation planning, and for generating and communicating specific management interventions given an increasingly altered, yet uncertain, climate.     

Adaptively Managing Wildlife for Climate Change: A Fuzzy Logic Approach

Wildlife managers have little or no control over climate change. However, they may be able to alleviate potential adverse impacts of future climate change by adaptively managing wildlife for climate change. In particular, wildlife managers can evaluate the efficacy of compensatory management actions (CMAs) in alleviating potential adverse impacts of future climate change on wildlife species using probability-based or fuzzy decision rules. Application of probability-based decision rules requires managers to specify certain probabilities, which is not possible when they are uncertain about the relationships between observed and true ecological conditions for a species. Under such uncertainty, the efficacy of CMAs can be evaluated and the best CMA selected using fuzzy decision rules. The latter are described and demonstrated using three constructed cases that assume: (1) a single ecological indicator (e.g., population size for a species) in a single time period; (2) multiple ecological indicators for a species in a single time period; and (3) multiple ecological conditions for a species in multiple time periods.     

Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.     

A Decision‐Analytic Approach to Managing Climate Risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes1

Brown, Casey, William Werick, Wendy Leger, and David Fay, 2011. A Decision‐Analytic Approach to Managing Climate Risks: Application to the Upper Great Lakes. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):524‐534. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00552.x Abstract: In this paper, we present a risk analysis and management process designed for use in water resources planning and management under climate change. The process incorporates climate information through a method called decision‐scaling, whereby information related to climate projections is tailored for use in a decision‐analytic framework. The climate risk management process begins with the identification of vulnerabilities by asking stakeholders and resource experts what water conditions they could cope with and which would require substantial policy or investment shifts. The identified vulnerabilities and thresholds are formalized with a water resources systems model that relates changes in the physical climate conditions to the performance metrics corresponding to vulnerabilities. The irreducible uncertainty of climate change projections is addressed through a dynamic management plan embedded within an adaptive management process. Implementation of the process is described as applied in the ongoing International Upper Great Lakes Study.     

Managing United States Public Lands in Response to Climate Change: A View From the Ground Up

Federal land managers are faced with the task of balancing multiple uses and goals when making decisions about land use and the activities that occur on public lands. Though climate change is now well recognized by federal agencies and their local land and resource managers, it is not yet clear how issues related to climate change will be incorporated into on-the-ground decision making within the framework of multiple use objectives. We conducted a case study of a federal land management agency field office, the San Juan Public Lands Center in Durango, CO, U.S.A., to understand from their perspective how decisions are currently made, and how climate change and carbon management are being factored into decision making. We evaluated three major management sectors in which climate change or carbon management may intersect other use goals: forests, biofuels, and grazing. While land managers are aware of climate change and eager to understand more about how it might affect land resources, the incorporation of climate change considerations into everyday decision making is currently quite limited. Climate change is therefore on the radar screen, but remains a lower priority than other issues. To assist the office in making decisions that are based on sound scientific information, further research is needed into how management activities influence carbon storage and resilience of the landscape under climate change.     

LONG-TERM VARIATIONS IN SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPORTANT TO WATER RESOURCES IN ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: An analysis of historical relationships between seasonal weather conditions and water resource conditions in Illinois provides insights to the challenges of projecting such relationships under conditions of climate change. In Illinois for 1901–1997 there were major temporal shifts in types of seasonal conditions that have positive and negative effects on surface water and ground water supplies and their quality. Major seasonal effects came in the spring and summer seasons and when either wet-and-warm or dry-and-warm weather conditions prevailed in either season. Sixty percent of the summer seasons creating negative impacts occurred during only 40 years: 1911–1940 and 1951–1960. Seasons creating impacts relate well to the frequency of cyclone passages and to the incidence of El Niño or La Niña conditions. This reveals that future climate fluctuations that shift the frequency of cyclones and/or ENSO events will have profound effects on Midwestern seasonal conditions that affect water resources. Projecting future effects of climate change on water resources will need to consider how shifts in water use and water management technologies act to re-define the seasonal weather conditions that are critical.     

Modeling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Salmon Culture Programs: An Example at Winthrop National Fish Hatchery

Hatcheries have long been used in an attempt to mitigate for declines in wild stocks of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), though the conservation benefit of hatcheries is a topic of ongoing debate. Irrespective of conservation benefits, a fundamental question is whether hatcheries will be able to function as they have in the past given anticipated future climate conditions. To begin to answer this question, we developed a deterministic modeling framework to evaluate how climate change may affect hatcheries that rear Pacific salmon. The framework considers the physiological tolerances for each species, incorporates a temperature-driven growth model, and uses two metrics commonly monitored by hatchery managers to determine the impacts of changes in water temperature and availability on hatchery rearing conditions. As a case study, we applied the model to the US Fish and Wildlife Service’s Winthrop National Fish Hatchery. We projected that hatchery environmental conditions remained within the general physiological tolerances for Chinook salmon in the 2040s (assuming A1B greenhouse gas emissions scenario), but that warmer water temperatures in summer accelerated juvenile salmon growth. Increased growth during summer coincided with periods when water availability should also be lower, thus increasing the likelihood of physiological stress in juvenile salmon. The identification of these climate sensitivities led to a consideration of potential mitigation strategies such as chilling water, altering rations, or modifying rearing cycles. The framework can be refined with new information, but in its present form, it provides a consistent, repeatable method to assess the vulnerability of hatcheries to predicted climate change.     

Water Stress Projections for the Northeastern and Midwestern United States in 2060: Anthropogenic and Ecological Consequences

Future climate and land‐use changes and growing human populations may reduce the abundance of water resources relative to anthropogenic and ecological needs in the Northeast and Midwest (U.S.). We used output from WaSSI, a water accounting model, to assess potential changes between 2010 and 2060 in (1) anthropogenic water stress for watersheds throughout the Northeast and Midwest and (2) native fish species richness (i.e., number of species) for the Upper Mississippi water resource region (UMWRR). Six alternative scenarios of climate change, land‐use change, and human population growth indicated future water supplies will, on average across the region, be adequate to meet anthropogenic demands. Nevertheless, the number of individual watersheds experiencing severe stress (demand > supplies) was projected to increase for most scenarios, and some watersheds were projected to experience severe stress under multiple scenarios. Similarly, we projected declines in fish species richness for UMWRR watersheds and found the number of watersheds with projected declines and the average magnitude of declines varied across scenarios. All watersheds in the UMWRR were projected to experience declines in richness for at least two future scenarios. Many watersheds projected to experience declines in fish species richness were not projected to experience severe anthropogenic water stress, emphasizing the need for multidimensional impact assessments of changing water resources.     

Arctic Climate Impacts: Environmental Injustice in Canada and the United States

The current and projected future physical impacts of climate change are most extreme in the northern latitudes. The indigenous peoples in the North American arctic and sub-arctic rely on the availability of natural resources in mixed subsistence economies for nutritional and cultural survival and thus experience disproportionate burdens with respect to our changing climate. Arctic climate impacts exemplify how global phenomena and activities can significantly affect people locally in remote regions. These impacts are largely consistent throughout the region, irrespective of national boarders; however, indigenous peoples in Canada are better positioned than those in the United States to shape policy in a way that would ensure their adaptation to climate change. Political and industrial activity on national and global scales can have significant environmental, social and cultural repercussions on the local scale in remote areas. Remedies for environmental injustice will thus require strong cross-scale political and institutional linkages.     

Integrated urban water management modelling under climate change scenarios

The concept of integrated water management is uncommon in urban areas, unless there is a shortage of supply and severe conflicts among the users competing for limited water resources. Further, problem of water management in urban areas will aggravate due to uncertain climatic events. Therefore, an Integrated Urban Water Management Model considering Climate Change (IUWMCC) has been presented which is suitable for optimum allocation of water from multiple sources to satisfy the demands of different users under different climate change scenarios. Effect of climate change has been incorporated in non-linear mathematical model of resource allocation in term of climate change factors. These factors have been developed using runoff responses corresponding to base and future scenario of climate. Future scenarios have been simulated using stochastic weather generator (LARS-WG) for different IPCC climate change scenarios i.e. A1B, A2 and B1. Further, application of model has been demonstrated for a realistic water supply system of Ajmer urban fringe (India). Developed model is capable in developing adaptation strategies for optimum water resources planning and utilization in urban areas under different climate change scenarios.