Approaches to Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Species: A Guide to Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process

Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing (e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future.     

The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework: A Tool for Incorporating Climate Change into Natural Resource Management

As natural resource management agencies and conservation organizations seek guidance on responding to climate change, myriad potential actions and strategies have been proposed for increasing the long-term viability of some attributes of natural systems. Managers need practical tools for selecting among these actions and strategies to develop a tailored management approach for specific targets at a given location. We developed and present one such tool, the participatory Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework, which considers the effects of climate change in the development of management actions for particular species, ecosystems and ecological functions. Our framework is based on the premise that effective adaptation of management to climate change can rely on local knowledge of an ecosystem and does not necessarily require detailed projections of climate change or its effects. We illustrate the ACT framework by applying it to an ecological function in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho, USA)-water flows in the upper Yellowstone River. We suggest that the ACT framework is a practical tool for initiating adaptation planning, and for generating and communicating specific management interventions given an increasingly altered, yet uncertain, climate.     

When Ecosystem Services Crash: Preparing for Big,Fast, Patchy Climate Change

Assessments of adaptation options generally focus on incremental, homogeneous ecosystem responses to climate even though climate change impacts can be big, fast, and patchy across a region. Regional drought-induced tree die-off in semiarid woodlands highlights how an ecosystem crash fundamentally alters most ecosystem services and poses management challenges. Building on previous research showing how choice of location is linked to adaptive capacity and vulnerability, we developed a framework showing how the options for retaining desired ecosystem services in the face of sudden crashes depend on how portable the service is and whether the stakeholder is flexible with regard to the location where they receive their services. Stakeholders using portable services, or stakeholders who can move to other locations to obtain services, may be more resilient to ecosystem crashes. Our framework suggests that entering into cooperative networks with regionally distributed stakeholders is key to building resilience to big, fast, patchy crashes.     

Impact of the toxicity of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Woloszynska) Seenayya & Subba Raju on laboratory rats in vivo

In vivo laboratory studies of toxicity were performed on Wistar rats using a methanol extract produced by the natural population of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (abundance of 2.13 × 10⁵ trichomes mL⁻¹) collected at Aleksandrovac Lake (Serbia). HPLC analysis showed that the extract contains 6.65 μg cylindrospermopsin (CYN) mg⁻¹. The rats were killed 24 or 72 h after a single intraperitoneal injection of C. raciborskii extract in concentrations of 1500, 3000, 6000 and 12,000 μg kg⁻¹ body weight (bw) and an equivalent amount of CYN as present in the highest dose of the extract (79.80 μg CYN kg⁻¹ bw). The genotoxic effect on the livers treated with C. raciborskii was evaluated using comet assay and potential induction of oxidative stress as the toxicity mechanism associated with the presence of CYN in extract. The results from the analyses of DNA damage in the comet tail length, tail moment and percentage of DNA in the tail in the liver indicated that administration of extract and CYN present statistically significant difference when compared with the negative control group. Although an increase in the frequency of selected parameters induced by the CYN was observed in the liver, this damage was less than the damage resulting from the administration of the highest dose of extract. The changes in the biochemical parameters of the hepatic damage showed that the application of single doses of the extract and CYN did not cause serious liver damage in rats. The extract and CYN significantly increased oxidative stress in rats’ liver after a single exposure.

     

An investigation of aqueous activity coefficients at low concentrations

The activity of a chemical in solution determines its tendency to move into other media. At low concentrations (<0.01M) it is generally considered to be linearly related to concentration. A hypothetical model based on the structure of liquid water is discussed which could cause deviations from this linearity in the ppb region, a concentration much lower than that normally investigated thermodynamically, but one of great importance environmentally. Headspace experiments are reported with carbon tetrachloride and chloroform in water at concentrations down to ～10^?3 ppb but no such deviations were discerned.     

Sustainability or collapse: what can we learn from integrating the history of humans and the rest of nature?

Understanding the history of how humans have interacted with the rest of nature can help clarify the options for managing our increasingly interconnected global system. Simple, deterministic relationships between environmental stress and social change are inadequate. Extreme drought, for instance, triggered both social collapse and ingenious management of water through irrigation. Human responses to change, in turn, feed into climate and ecological systems, producing a complex web of multidirectional connections in time and space. Integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleoenvironmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. But, if we can adequately understand the past, we can use that understanding to influence our decisions and to create a better, more sustainable and desirable future.     

油浸变压器排油注氮装置在500kV变电站的设计与应用

在分析500kV变电站主变压器消防系统的现状,比较3类消防系统优缺点的基础上,详细论述了主变排油注氮装置的结构组成、工作原理、参数计算、控制系统设计以及需要注意的事项等,为下一步排油注氮装置的推广应用打下基础.