Levellised electricity cost for wind and PV–diesel hybrid system in Oman at selected sites

Solar and wind energy data available for Oman indicate that these two resources are likely to play an important role in the future energy generation in this country. In this paper, a model is designed to assess wind and solar power cost per kWh of energy produced using different sizes of wind machines and photovoltaic (PV) panels at two sites in Oman, which then can be generalised for other locations in Oman. Hourly values of wind speed and solar radiation recorded for several years are used for these locations. The wind profiles from Thumrait and Masirah island are modelled using the Weibull distribution. The cost of wind-based energy is calculated for both locations using different sizes of turbines. Furthermore, this paper presents a study carried out to investigate the economics of using PV only and PV with battery as an energy fuel saver in two villages. The results show that the PV energy utilisation is an attractive option with an energy cost of the selected PV ranges between 0.128 and 0.144 $/kWh at 7.55% discount rate compared to an operating cost of 0.128–0.558 $\kWh for diesel generation, considering the capital cost of diesel units as sunk.     

Stand-alone PV-hydrogen energy system in Taleghan-Iran using HOMER software: optimization and techno-economic analysis

One of the most attractive features of hydrogen as an energy carrier is that it can be produced from water. Hydrogen has the highest energy content per unit mass as compared to chemical fuel and can be substituted. Its burning process is non-polluting, and it can be used in the fuel cells to produce both electricity and useful heat. Photovoltaic arrays can be used in supplying the water electrolysis systems by their energy requirements. During the daylight hours, the sunlight on the photovoltaic array converts into electrical energy which can be used for electrolyzer. The hydrogen produced by the electrolyzer is compressed and stored in hydrogen vessel and provides energy for the fuel cell to meet the load when the solar energy is insufficient. This study investigates a stand-alone power system that consists of PV array as power supply and electrolyzer. They have been integrated and worked at the Taleghan renewable energies’ site in Iran. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables simulation software has been used to carry out the optimal design and techno-economic viability of the energy system. The simulation results demonstrate that energy system is composed of 10-kW PV array, 3.5-kW electrolyzer, 0.4-kW proton exchange membrane fuel cell, 2.5-kW inverter, and 60 batteries (100 Ah and 12 V). The total initial capital cost, net present cost, and cost of electricity produced from this energy system are 193,563 US$, 237,509 US$, and 3.35 US$/kWh, respectively.     

Optimum design and evaluation of hybrid solar/wind/diesel power system for Masirah Island

This paper addresses the requirements of electrical energy for an isolated island of Masirah in Oman. The paper studied the possibility of using sources of renewable energy in combination with current diesel power plant on the island to meet the electrical load demand. There are two renewable energy sources used in this study, solar and wind energy. This study aimed to design and evaluate hybrid solar/wind/diesel/battery system in terms of cost and pollution. By using HOMER software, many simulation analyses have been proposed to find and optimize different technologies that contain wind turbine, solar photovoltaic, and diesel in combination with storage batteries for electrical generation. Four different hybrid power systems were proposed, diesel generators only, wind/diesel/battery, PV/diesel/battery, and PV/wind/diesel/battery. The analysis of the results shows that around 75 % could reduce the cost of energy by using PV/wind/diesel hybrid power system. Also, the greenhouse emission could be reduced by around 25 % compared with these by using diesel generators system that currently utilize in the Masirah Island. The solar/wind/diesel hybrid system is techno-economically viable for Masirah Island.     

Intelligent power supply management of an autonomous hybrid energy generator

ABSTRACT

This work deals with the optimization of an hybrid energy system used to supply an isolated site. The proposed system combines a wind turbine, a photovoltaic panel, a diesel generator and a battery bank to electrify atypical home. An energy cost-effectiveness approach is adopted in accordance with meteorological data, time profile of energy consumption, and the cost of different alternative systems. A variety of performances is obtained through simulations within the Homer Pro environment. The selection of an optimal combination is based on the maximum integration of renewable energy in the suggested system with a minimum of gas emission. According to the obtained results, the overall cost of the selected installation is about 72,900 €, with 0.415€ the unit cost of a kWh electric energy provided with a contribution of renewable energy of around 86%. Simulations show a technical and financial benefits of the different configurations obtained to supply the target site. To control the proposed hybrid energy system, a supervision algorithm is developed and implemented on TMS320F28027 DSP platform. The proposed energy system aims to take advantages of renewable energy sources and shift to conventional sources only when necessary in order to ensure source autonomy and service continuity.     

Sustainable energy generation using hybrid energy system for remote hilly rural area in India

Hybrid energy systems are renewable energy system combined in a complementary fashion to ensure dependable power supply at competitive cost. Diesel generators (DGs) are also added here as a back-up source of supply. For remote areas far from a transmission grid, these systems can provide a reliable and cost-effective supply. Addition of DG could instigate environmental pollution in such remote unpolluted areas. In the present work, optimal sizing of hybrid energy system has been attempted for a remote village cluster of Uttarakhand (India) to make available desired power supply at minimum environmental effluence. Hybrid Optimization Model for Electrical Renewable (HOMER) software from National Renewable Energy Laboratory, USA has been employed to attain the objective. The software offered several feasible systems, ranked on the basis of net present cost (NPC). All such systems are further analysed for emissions they have made in the environment. Hence, the optimal system fulfilling the criteria of minimal environmental degradation with sufficiently minimum NPC has been searched for. In the present work, the most appropriate system offered on the basis of NPC is the one which has five wind turbines (10 kW each), one DG (65 kW) and 25 batteries (6 V, 6.94 kW h each). The NPC of the system is $1,252,018, whereas its initial capital cost and levelised cost of energy (COE) are $94,233 and $0.292/kW h, respectively. After further analysis of all the feasible systems on the basis of environmental effluence, the most feasible system explored is the one which has minimal emissions of various pollutants such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbon, particulate matter, sulphur dioxide and nitrous oxide. The system has been obtained on a compromised NPC of $1,270,921 with a capital cost of $148,133 and COE of $0.296/kW h. Components of the system include five wind turbines (10 kW), a 9 kW PV panel and a 65 kW DG along with 30 batteries (6 V, 6.94 kW h each). The system so obtained would prove to be a feasible, optimally sized and sustainable power supply alternative for remote unelectrified hilly rural area.     

Economic feasibility of autonomous hybrid wind–diesel power systems for residential loads in hot regions: a step to mitigate the implications of fossil fuel depletion

Today, energy occupies a pivotal position around which all socio-economic activities revolve. No energy means no life, and supply of energy in a cheap, plentiful, long-sustainable and environmentally safe form is a boon for everyone. In the light of rising cost of oil and fears of its exhaustion coupled with increased pollution, the governments worldwide are deliberating and making huge strides to promote renewable energy sources such as wind. Integration of wind machines with the diesel plants is pursued widely to reduce dependence on fossil-fuel-produced energy and to reduce the release of carbon gases that cause global climate change. The literature indicates that commercial/residential buildings in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) consume an estimated 10–40% of the total electric energy generated. The aim of this study is to analyse wind-speed data of Dhahran (East-Coast, KSA) to assess the economic feasibility of utilising autonomous hybrid wind–diesel power systems to meet the electrical load of 100 typical residential buildings (with annual electrical energy demand of 3512 MWh). The monthly average wind speeds range from 3.3 to 5.6 m/s. The hybrid systems simulated consist of different combinations of 600 kW commercial wind machines supplemented with diesel generators. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's hybrid optimisation model for electric renewables software was employed to perform the techno-economic analysis.

The simulation results indicate that for a hybrid system comprising 600 kW wind capacity together with a 1.0 MW diesel system (two 500 kW units), the wind penetration (at 50 m hub-height, with 0% annual capacity shortage) is 26%. The cost of generating energy (COE, $/kWh) from this hybrid wind–diesel system was found to be 0.070 $/kWh (assuming diesel fuel price of 0.1 $/l). The study exhibits that for a given hybrid configuration, the number of operational hours of diesel generator sets (gensets) decreases with an increase in the wind-farm capacity. Concurrently, emphasis has also been placed on wind penetration, un-met load, effect of hub-height on energy production and COE, excess electricity generation, percentage fuel savings and reduction in carbon emissions (relative to diesel-only situation) of different hybrid systems, cost breakdown of wind–diesel systems, COE of different hybrid systems, etc.     

Feasibility of PV–biodiesel hybrid energy system for a cement technology institute in India

This paper compares an existing unreliable grid supply with a proposed PV–biodiesel hybrid energy system in order to find the feasibility of the latter for improvement in reliability of power supply, lower pollutant emissions and saving of coal reserves. In the present study, the electrical load of a cement technology institute located in Bhilai, India, has been selected for the purpose of analysis. The results show that hybrid PV–biodiesel system comprising 25 kW PV array, 8 kW biodiesel generator-1, 20 kW biodiesel generator-2, 10 kW inverter and 10 kW rectifier will supply power to the institute avoiding addition of 27.744 tons of CO₂ in atmosphere and save 55,080 kg of coal per year with improvement in reliability from 93.15 to 100%.     

Exploitation of renewable energy resources for environment‐friendly sustainable development in Saudi Arabia

The recent increase in energy costs, driven by a surge in oil prices, has increased world‐wide efforts on the exploitation of renewable/wind energy resources for environment‐friendly sustainable development and to mitigate future energy challenges. Moreover, experience in the wind energy industry has reached high levels in the field of manufacturing and application. This inevitably increases the merits of wind energy exploitation. In order to exploit wind resources, through the establishment of wind power plants, specific attention must be focused on the characteristics of wind and wind machines. The literature indicates that wind‐energy resources are relatively better along coastlines. In the present study, long‐term hourly mean wind speed data for the period 1986–2003, recorded at Dhahran (Eastern Coastal region, Saudi Arabia), has been analysed to examine the wind characteristics including (but not limited to): yearly/monthly/diurnal variations of wind speed, frequency distribution of wind speed, impact of hub‐height/machine‐size on energy production, etc. Data have been checked/validated for completeness. Data analysis indicated that long‐term monthly average wind speeds ranged from 3.8 to 5.8 m/s.

Concurrently, the study determined monthly average daily energy generation from different sizes of commercial wind machines (150, 250, 600 kW, etc.) to assess the impact of wind machine size on energy yield. The study also estimated annual energy production (MWh/year) from wind farms of different capacities (3, 6, 12, 24 MW, etc.) by utilising different commercial wind energy conversion systems (WECS). It was observed that, for a given 6 MW wind farm size, a cluster of 150 kW wind machines (at 50 m hub‐height) yielded about 32% more energy when compared to a cluster of 600 kW wind machines. The study also estimated the cost of wind‐based electricity (COE, US$/kWh) by using different capacities of commercial WECS. It was found that the COE per kWh is 0.045 US$/kWh for 150 kW wind machine (at 50 m hub‐height) whereas COE was 0.039 US$/kWh for 600 kW wind machine (at 50 m hub‐height). The study also dealt with wind turbine characteristics (such as capacity factor and availability factor). These characteristics are important indicators of wind turbine performance evaluation.     

中国并网光伏发电系统的经济性与环境效益

太阳能已成为世界各国公认的最为理想的替代能源,其应用规模不断扩大.但光伏发电系统高昂的成本,成为限制其发展的关键因素.本文应用净现值和单因素敏感性分析工具,建立了光伏发电成本的计算模型,以我国34个省会城市作为研究案例,对井网光伏发电系统进行了经济性和环境效益分析.结果显示:在目前政府初始投资补贴一半的情况下,并网光伏发电成本介于0.83-2.29元/kWh之间.即便在光照资源最丰富的地区,并网光伏发电仍无法与常规能源发电相竞争.在影响并网光伏系统发电成本的诸多影响因素中,政府初始投资补贴额度、水平面太阳能辐射量和投资密度的敏感性最强;CDM资金的注入对光伏发电成本的降低具有积极的作用.激励政策方面,出台合适的、稳定的上网电价对启动国内光伏市场最为有效.光伏发电系统的环境效益是指光伏发电的减排环境效益扣除系统发电环境成本的余额.经计算并网光伏发电具有显著的环境效益,其环境效益为0.0165元/kWh.本研究对于国家制定光伏发电的激励政策和成本分摊机制具有重要的参考价值.     

Performance assessment of 20.4 kW eco-house grid-connected PV plant in Oman

ABSTRACT

The aim of this article is to analyse the performance of the Photovoltaic (PV) and to study the effect of soiling on the energy generation under Muscat environmental conditions. The generated energy is consumed in the eco-house, and the access energy is fed back to the electric grid. Two-ways metre was used to record the energy taken from the grid or fed back to the grid. The system was monitored from December 2014 until today. Various performance parameters of the plant were evaluated which include system efficiency, performance ratio (PR), capacity factor (CF) and different types of PV system losses and yields. The annual average values of recorded ambient temperature and solar radiation were 32°C and 482 W/m², respectively.

The total annual energy produced was 23,595 kWh, whereas the annual average daily reference yield, array yield and final yield were 5.59, 3.78 and 3.64 kWh/kW_P/day, respectively. The annual average daily PR and CF were 0.67 and 0.15, respectively, while the annual average system efficiency was 10.3%. Furthermore, the annual average daily capture, system and cell temperature losses were 1.82, 0.14 and 2.95 h/day,respectively, with a small reduction in energy production when modules left uncleaned.     

Solar photovoltaic investments and economic growth in EU: Are we able to evaluate the nexus?

A core question in energy economics may be stated as follows: Is the cost–benefit analysis being correctly applied when we encourage investments in renewables, as an alternative to the traditional energy sources? The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been extensively treated within economics literature. Yet, literature on the nexus between specific energy sources and GDP is almost inexistent. In this article, we intend to explore the relationship between a certain type of renewable generation technology (solar PV) and GDP. The present and above all the planned energy mix might differ widely from one country to another. Thus, the analysis by source of energy generation becomes a helpful instrument for policy-making. Using a fixed effects panel data methodology and a sample of eighteen EU countries, we find that a 1 % increase in solar PV installed capacity and in electricity production from renewable sources has a positive impact on GDP of 0.0248 and 0.0061 %, respectively. We also conclude that a 1 % growth on greenhouse gas emissions positively affects GDP by 0.3106 %. Further evidence reveals that, in terms of country-specific analysis, Germany, France, Italy and the UK have the most significant estimations for fixed effects. In fact, Germany is a solar PV technology producer, France has a very active nuclear sector, with little pressure for both renewables development and CO₂ reductions, Italy had in this period a strong governmental support to this sector, and the UK has a strong connection between the solar PV and the industry sectors.     

Pre-feasibility study of stand-alone hybrid energy systems for applications in eco-houses

In light of rising cost of fossil fuels and fears of its depletion, coupled with the increase in energy demand and the rise in pollution levels, governments worldwide have had to look at alternative energy resources. Combining renewable energy generation like solar power with superior storage and conversion technology such as hydrogen storage, fuel cells and batteries offers a potential solution for a stand-alone power system. The aim of this paper was to assess the techno-economic feasibility of using a hybrid energy system with hydrogen fuel cell for application in an eco-house that will be built in Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman. Actual load data for a typical Omani house of a similar size as the eco-house was considered as the stand-alone load with an average energy consumption of 40 kW/day and 5 kW peak power demand. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Hybrid Optimisation Model for Electric Renewable software was used as a sizing and optimisation tool for the system. It was found that the total annual electrical energy production is 42,255 kW and the cost of energy for this hybrid system is 0.582 $/kW. During daylight time, when the solar radiation is high, the photovoltaics (PV) panels supplied most of the load requirements. Moreover, during the evening time the fuel cell mainly serves the house with the help of the batteries. The proposed system is capable of providing the required energy to the eco-house during the whole year using only the solar irradiance as the primary source.     

Energy conservation and waste utilization in the cement industry serve the green technology and environment

The cement industry is one of the most energy-intensive industries consuming 4 GJ/ton of cement, i.e. 12–15% of the energy use in total industry. Energy cost accounts for 30% of the total cost of cement production. Seventy-five per cent of this energy is due to the thermal energy for clinker production. It is also found that 35% of this supplied thermal energy is lost in flue gas streams. Most modern kilns use pet coke or coal as their primary fuel. Instead, the municipal waste in landfills offer a cheap source of energy and reduce the environmental effects of dumping solid waste. The calcination and drying processes and the kiln need large quantities of thermal energy. About 40% of the total energy input is lost in the hot flue gases and cooling the stack plus the kiln shell. Hence, it is suitable to use an organic Rankine cycle (ORC) to recover the exhaust energy from the kiln. Alternatively, a 15 MW gas turbine engine combined with a steam turbine could be utilized. It was found that ORC produces 5 MW with a capital cost recovery period of 1.26 years. However, the gas turbine combined system produces 21.45 MW with a maximum recovery period of 2.66 years.     

Experimental investigation of dust pollutants and the impact of environmental parameters on PV performance: an experimental study

The accumulation of dust pollution on the photovoltaic (PV) module can have a significant effect on the productivity and efficiency of PV systems in different locations in the world. Dust which accumulated over time on the PV module and is based on weather conditions led to the reduction in the effectiveness of solar cells. The aim of this research was to experimentally investigate the effect of the natural dust and the effects of environmental parameters on PV performance. The experiments were conducted to propose a model for the current, voltage, power and efficiency and to simulate the effect of environmental parameters on PV performance. The natural dust investigated consisted of different compounds: SiO₂ (45.53 %), CaO (24.62 %), Al₂O₃ (10.83 %), Fe₂O₃ (10.46 %), MgO (6.33 %), K₂O (0.87 %), TiO₂ (0.45 %), SO₃ (0.24 %), MnO₂ (0.21), Cr₂O₃ (0.23 %), SrO (0.13 %) and NiO (0.09 %). It was found that the most accurate correlation is a polynomial from seventh degree for current, voltage, power and efficiency, fourth degree for solar radiation and temperature, cubic degree for humidity and wind velocity. The coefficients of general model are 0.6343, 0.0110, 0.0 and 0.0001 for PV module, respectively, with 0.0011 fitting factor. The proposed model has been validated using models in the literature.     

The in-use annual energy and carbon saving by switching from a car to an electric bicycle in an urban UK general medical practice: the implication for NHS commuters

The UK Climate Change Act (CCA) mandates an 80 % reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2050. It is estimated that 3.2 M tonnes pa CO₂ results from travel-related NHS business. The acquisition of an electric bicycle to replace a car for both commuting and home visits allowed comparison of fuel use and CO₂ emissions over a 4-year period. The switch to the use of the electric bicycle reduced the average annual petrol use by 329 l, the energy consumption by 3,140 kWh and the CO₂ released by 748 kg a year. Wider adoption of electric bicycles in urban General Practice will contribute to the requirements of the CCA though to have a significant effect on the current estimated commuting-related carbon footprint of the NHS (0.76 MT pa) would require two-thirds of the workforce to abandon their cars in favour of electric bicycles.     

A method for supporting the design of efficient heating systems using EU product policy data

The design of heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems is still a challenging engineering task which requires experienced and informed decision-making. These systems have a great energy-saving potential at the system level rather than at the level of the individual products of which they are composed. European environmental product policies have been very useful in facilitating a homogeneous rating scheme which can be used to compare the energy performance of different products that provide the same service. This paper proposes a simplified design method which uses the performance of components that are regulated by European product policies to obtain the overall performance of heating systems in residential buildings. It is a flexible method and allows different product configurations to be assessed so as to optimise the system performance during the design phase. The method is tested on a real case study with domestic hot water and space heating systems. The case study shows the potential for improving the heating systems according to the performance levels of its products currently available in the market. Results of the domestic hot water system show that upgrading its storage tank to the maximum energy class (A⁺) could bring the highest energy savings ( 4162 kWh/y).     

Viability of solar photovoltaics as an electricity generation source for Jordan

Viability of solar photovoltaics as an electricity generation source for Jordan was assessed utilising a proposed 5 MW grid‐connected solar photovoltaic power plant. Long‐term (1994–2003) monthly average daily global solar radiation and sunshine duration data for 24 locations – distributed all over the country – were studied and analysed to assess the distribution of radiation and sunshine duration over Jordan, and formed an input to the RetScreen Software for evaluation and analysis of the proposed plant's electricity production and economic feasibility. It was found that depending on the geographical location, the global solar radiation on horizontal surface varied between 1.51 and 2.46 MWh/m²/year with an overall mean value of 2.01 MWh/m²/year for Jordan. The sunshine duration was found to vary, according to the location, between 8.47 and 9.68 hours/day, with a mean value of 9.07 hours/day and about 3311 sunshine hours annually for Jordan. The annual electricity production of the proposed plant varied depending on the location between 6.886 and 11.919 GWh/year, with a mean value of 9.46 GWh/year. The specific yield varied between 340.9 and 196.9 kWh/m², while the mean value was 270.59 kWh/m². Analysis of the annual electricity production of the plant, the specific yield, besides the economic indicators, i.e. internal rate of return, simple payback period, years to positive cash flow, net present value, annual life cycle saving, benefit/cost ratio, and cost of energy – for all sites – showed that Tafila and Karak are the most suitable sites for the solar photovoltaic power plant's development and Wadi Yabis is the worst. The results also showed that an average of 7414.9 tons of greenhouse gases can be avoided annually utilising the proposed plant for electricity generation at any part of Jordan.     

晶硅光伏组件出口对中国碳排放的影响

基于文献资料,估算了2004-2009年中国晶硅光伏组件制造过程中的能源消耗和CO2排放强度。研究发现,2004-2009年,晶硅光伏组件制造过程中的能耗强度和CO2排放强度均逐年下降。2009年,单晶、多晶光伏组件制造过程中的能耗强度分别为2 629 kWh/kWp和2 242 kWh/kWp,碳排放强度分别为1 829 gCO2/Wp和1 559 gCO2/Wp。由于晶硅光伏组件的大量出口,中国不仅出口了大量的隐含碳,还损失了数量可观的、潜在的CO2减排能力。2004-2010年,中国的隐含碳净出口量由3万tCO2增加到852万tCO2;如果出口的晶硅电池全部用于国内,在其生命周期内累计可减排CO23.4亿t。除2004年和2010年外,国内安装的晶硅光伏组件在其生命周期内所能减少的CO2排放不足以抵消晶硅光伏行业的CO2排放,晶硅光伏行业对中国CO2减排的贡献为负。在多晶硅全部国产的情况下,中国若维持晶硅电池应用中的CO2减排量与全行业CO2排放量的平衡,至少应将晶硅组件制造的7.2%安装在国内使用。若多晶硅进口比例仍保持在50%左右,则至少应将晶硅组件制造的4.9%安装在国内使用。     

Evaluation of solar powered water pumping system: the case study of three selected Abattoirs in Ibadan,Nigeria

In this paper, detailed and comprehensive analysis of the technical, environmental and economic benefits of providing adequate water supply using solar PV system for three selected abattoirs (Bodija, Akinyele and Iyana church abattoirs) in Ibadan are presented. First, an estimate of average daily water requirement for slaughtering and cleaning cattle is obtained for each of the abattoir. This was achieved through oral interviews conducted at the different abattoirs to arrive at a reliable estimate. Thereafter, the total water requirement, the water storage capacity and the electrical load requirement necessary for the sizing of solar PV system that will enhance the smooth operation of the abattoir are determined. Some of the key results revealed that the water requirements of the abattoirs are 208,780, 91,632 and 78,590 l/week, respectively. The most suitable submersible pump for the three abattoirs is 60GS50 (5hp, 60gallon/min Goulds series). The cost of pumping water and providing lighting for smooth operation of the abattoirs are $0.23, $0.21 and $0.19, respectively. The results also show that 16,300, 15,200 and 14,600 kg/yr of carbon dioxide as well as 46.37, 43.36 and 41.45 kg/yr of carbon monoxide could be avoided, respectively with the implementation of the project.     

Statistical modelling of district-level residential electricity use in NSW, Australia

Electricity network investment and asset management require accurate estimation of future demand in energy consumption within specified service areas. For this purpose, simple models are typically developed to predict future trends in electricity consumption using various methods and assumptions. This paper presents a statistical model to predict electricity consumption in the residential sector at the Census Collection District (CCD) level over the state of New South Wales, Australia, based on spatial building and household characteristics. Residential household demographic and building data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and actual electricity consumption data from electricity companies are merged for 74 % of the 12,000 CCDs in the state. Eighty percent of the merged dataset is randomly set aside to establish the model using regression analysis, and the remaining 20 % is used to independently test the accuracy of model prediction against actual consumption. In 90 % of the cases, the predicted consumption is shown to be within 5 kWh per dwelling per day from actual values, with an overall state accuracy of ?1.15 %. Given a future scenario with a shift in climate zone and a growth in population, the model is used to identify the geographical or service areas that are most likely to have increased electricity consumption. Such geographical representation can be of great benefit when assessing alternatives to the centralised generation of energy; having such a model gives a quantifiable method to selecting the ‘most’ appropriate system when a review or upgrade of the network infrastructure is required.