Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness

Long-term future development of European agriculture within the global market is highly uncertain, but can potentially have large impacts on the future of agricultural businesses, rural communities and amenities such as traditional landscapes and biodiversity. Despite great uncertainties it is of interest to explore the extent of these potential changes. This paper provides an explorative scenario of the European crop production in a liberalised world without European Union (EU) market interventions. The results do not form a prediction or a business as usual scenario, but rather a plausible and salient thought-experiment of a possible future based on the consistent integration of current conceptual and quantitative models.Future scenarios for climate, demography, technology and global demand for agricultural commodities are used to assess the competitiveness of European agriculture. Regional economic competitiveness is determined by combining indicators for the economic strength of farms in a region and population pressure on agricultural land, and subsequently used to determine where agricultural production is likely to sustain under the market liberalisation scenario. The method is illustrated for the 27 EU member state countries for three commodities: wheat, potato and milk (relying on grass).Results include maps of the dominant wheat, potato and milk producing regions across Europe as projected for 2050. They show that due to increased agricultural productivity, less agricultural land will be needed to supply the European demand for food and feed. In addition, production will concentrate in those regions which have a comparative advantage. This potentially leads to a strong polarisation between north-western Europe and southern Europe, which faces negative impacts of climate change and central and northern Europe where agricultural businesses lag in economic strength and farm size. A contrasting policy intervention scenario illustrates how differences in demand and productivity result in an expansion of the agricultural area, especially for the production of wheat.Although the complete liberalisation scenario may seem unlikely, and the underlying assumptions have great uncertainty, the results help identify and map market pressures on agricultural land use across regions in Europe. As such, it stimulates policy debate on the desired future for the European agricultural sector and the trade-offs between economic competitiveness under global market conditions and policy intervention. In addition, it provides a basis for the planning of alternative economic strategies for agriculturally less competitive regions.     

Measuring sustainable governance in the European Union

This paper examines the problem of measuring sustainable governance in the European Union (EU-27) through the use of duality and the Slutsky equation. The proposed methodology is based on the application of a three-dimensional optimisation model, where the arguments of the objective (sustainable social welfare) function are economic goods that contribute to sustainable economic growth; environmental goods that provide for sustainable environmental protection; and social goods through which sustainable social development is achieved. The dual problem, formulated through this three-dimensional theoretical model, is solved to find the optimal solution, indicating a certain sustainability level. We suggest that this solution can be used for calculating the value of what we define here as the sustainable governmental policy indicator, which is considered to provide quantitative measurement of government policies on sustainable development within the context of ‘good governance’. Furthermore, it is suggested that the Slutsky equation can be used as a reliable method for long-term monitoring and planning of national as well as international good governance with regard to sustainable development policies. In its empirical part, the paper applies the theoretical model in an analysis of the sustainable development indicators (as set out in the Sustainable Development Strategy (SDS) of the EU) in Bulgaria for the period 2000–2010 and compares them to those of the EU-27.     

Tradeoffs between forestry resource and conservation values under alternate policy regimes: A spatial analysis of the western Canadian boreal plains

An important element of resource management and conservation is an understanding of the tradeoffs between marketed products, such as timber, and measures of environmental quality, such as biodiversity. In this paper, we develop an integrated economic-ecological spatial optimization model that we then apply to evaluate alternate forest policies on a 560,000 km² study region of managed boreal forest in Alberta and British Columbia, Canada. The integrated model incorporates dynamic forest sector harvesting, current levels of oil and gas sector development, coarse-filter or habitat-based old forest indicators, a set of empirical forest bird abundance models, and statistical models of the natural and current fire regimes. Using our integrated model, economic tradeoff curves, or production possibility frontiers, are developed to illustrate the cost of achieving coarse-filter targets by a set time (50 years) within a 100-year time horizon. We found levels of ecological indicators and economic returns from the timber industry could both be increased if spatial constraints imposed by the current policy environment were relaxed; other factors being equal, this implies current policy should be revised. We explore the production possibility frontier's relationship to the range of natural variation of old forest habitat, and show how this range can be used to guide choices of preferred locations along the frontier. We also show that coarse-filter constraints on the abundance of certain habitat elements are sufficient to satisfy some fine-filter objectives, expressed as the predicted abundances of various species of songbirds.     

Evaluating 22 EU member states’ ‘waste culture’ using Hofstede’s and Schwartz’s cultural dimensions

The issue of municipal solid waste (MSW) arisings has received great attention recently since it is not only a by-product of economic activity but also serves as an input to the economy through material or energy recovery. The main focus of this study is cultural formation and especially the current picture of waste culture and public perception across European Union (EU) member states. Thus, this study will first evaluate environmental efficiency with data envelopment analysis (DEA) based on five parameters: waste, gross domestic product (GDP), labour, capital, and population density for 22 EU Member States and for the years 2005, 2010 and 2015 in order to evaluate which Member States are more efficient. Then the efficiency results are contrasted to Hofstede’s and Schwartz’s cultural dimensions on STATA with the use of regression modelling. Results show that for year 2005 no significant relationship is noticed for both cultural models, whereas for years 2010 and 2015 there appears to be a significant connection. The above-mentioned findings can be associated with the financial crisis that has hit Europe after 2008 making people more sceptical, while EU legislations have laid out some important directives in the field of waste management. Finally, along with the factors above, EU has faced severe environmental challenges due to waste arisings, as well as accidents and injuries for people working in this sector, which in turn have widely modified EU’s waste culture as supported by this study’s results.     

Does the EU ETS cause carbon leakage in European manufacturing?

Carbon leakage is of interest in both academic and policy debates about the effectiveness of unilateral climate policy, especially in Europe, where the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) affects many traded sectors. We review how the literature identifies leakage and the pollution haven effect. We then evaluate whether EU ETS emission costs caused carbon leakage in European manufacturing, using trade flows in embodied carbon and value from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). We find no evidence that the EU ETS caused carbon leakage.     

Policy relevance of three integrated assessment tools—A comparison with specific reference to agricultural policies

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), a system of market support instruments, direct income transfers, and rural development measures, has been put through an ongoing reform process in recent decades. This paper introduces three policy impact assessment tools (SIAT, SEAMLESS-IF, MEA-Scope tool) and analyses how these tools have responded to a number of challenges for integrated assessment modelling as reported in the international literature. Significant progress has been made with regard to modelling linkages whereas other challenges, particularly those related to issues of scale and uncertainty management, require further efforts. It is also analysed which CAP instruments are represented and what kinds of effects can be analysed at different scales. Market instruments and direct payments are comparatively well represented, while the ability to model rural development measures is mostly beyond the scope of these tools. Because each tool has found a different solution for coping with the common challenges of integrated assessment modelling, the choice of one of the tools for a particular application depends strongly on the policy questions being asked. The SIAT provides the big picture via its ability to represent broad changes in policy instruments with EU-wide cross-sector impacts. The most comprehensive analysis of agricultural policy instruments can be obtained with SEAMLESS-IF. The MEA-Scope tool complements the other two approaches with detailed regional profiles.     

Municipal wastewater treatment in China: Development history and future perspectives

The history of China’s municipal wastewater management is revisited. The remaining challenges in wastewater sector in China are identified. New concept municipal wastewater treatment plants are highlighted. An integrated plant of energy, water and fertilizer recovery is envisaged. China has the world’s largest and still growing wastewater sector and water market, thus its future development will have profound influence on the world. The high-speed development of China’s wastewater sector over the past 40 years has forged its global leading treatment capacity and innovation ability. However, many problems were left behind, including underdeveloped sewers and sludge disposal facilities, low sustainability of the treatment processes, questionable wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent discharge standards, and lacking global thinking on harmonious development between wastewater management, human society and the nature. Addressing these challenges calls for fundamental changes in target design, policy and technologies. In this mini-review, we revisit the development history of China’s municipal wastewater management and identify the remaining challenges. Also, we highlight the future needs of sustainable development and exploring China’s own wastewater management path, and outlook the future from several aspects including targets of wastewater management, policies and technologies, especially the new concept WWTP. Furthermore, we envisage the establishment of new-generation WWTPs with the vision of turning WWTP from a site of pollutant removal into a plant of energy, water and fertilizer recovery and an integrated part urban ecology in China.     

The transition from dirty to clean industries: optimal fiscal policy and the environmental Kuznets curve

This paper investigates privately and socially optimal patterns of economic development in a two-sector endogenous growth model with clean and dirty goods. We consider a second-best fiscal policy framework in which distortionary taxes jointly influence economic growth and environmental quality. In this policy setting, three conditions produce an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC): (i) dirty output is bounded; (ii) clean output grows endogenously; and (iii) growth in the dirty sector reduces growth in the clean sector. These conditions do not arise with a consumption externality, but can emerge with a production externality. Endogenous labor supply implications are also investigated. Although not necessary for producing an EKC, endogenous labor supply provides additional linkages that produce an EKC under circumstances in which it would otherwise not appear.     

Einstufung und Kennzeichnung: das Instrumentarium von GHS und REACH für das Risikomanagement

For the safe use of chemicals it is necessary to identify risks in different fields of application. Not until then harmful effects to man and the environment can possibly be reduced by adequate measures. Here the identification of intrinsic properties of chemicals is an important fundamental for evaluation. Broad examination of exposition follows. REACH and GHS deliver new instruments which, due to their requirements on information quality and transparency as well as on harmonization, contribute to the improvement of risk management measures (RMM). With the coming into force of the CLP-regulation and the implementation of the GHS within the EU on 20.?1.?2009, as suggested in the white book on European Chemicals policy in 2001, the new system of European chemical law has been completed at a regulatory level. This article shows the development so far from the first directive on the regulation on the labeling of chemicals, to the establishment of application and test procedures, and then to the instruments of risk communication and risk management introduced by REACH and the CLP-regulation.     

The EU's double-track pursuit of sustainable development in the 2000s: how Lisbon and sustainable development strategies ran past each other

For almost a decade, the EU has pursued sustainable development not with one but with two overarching strategies: the so-called Lisbon Strategy and sustainable development strategies. While the Lisbon Strategy was a genuinely European policy response to global economic and social pressures, which was superseded by the ‘Europe 2020’ strategy in 2010, sustainable development strategies are ongoing cyclical processes that aim to better coordinate and integrate economic, social and, in particular, environmental policies at both the EU and Member State levels. This paper explores the horizontal governance linkages that existed between the two strategies. It first contrasts the Council rhetoric, emphasizing the complementarity of the two strategies with their different histories and governance arrangements. This paper then shows that the Council rhetoric of complementarity never materialized in the everyday governance routines of the two strategies, and provides three explanations for this finding. Based on these findings, this paper finally provides a brief outlook discussion on how to proceed with the governance of sustainable development in Europe.     

Opportunities and challenges for Common Agricultural Policy reform to support the European Green Deal

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the European Union's main instrument for agricultural planning, with a new reform approved for 2023–2027. The CAP intends to align with the European Green Deal (EGD), a set of policy initiatives underpinning sustainable development and climate neutrality in the European Union (EU), but several flaws cast doubts about the compatibility of the objectives of these 2 policies. We reviewed recent literature on the potential of CAP environmental objectives for integration with the EGD: protection of biodiversity, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and sustainable management of natural resources. The CAP lacks appropriate planning measures, furthering instead risks to biodiversity and ecosystem services driven by landscape and biotic homogenization. Funding allocation mechanisms are not tailored to mitigate agricultural emissions, decreasing the efficiency of climate mitigation actions. The legislation subsidies farmers making extensive use of synthetic inputs without adequately supporting organic production, hindering the transition toward sustainable practices. We recommend proper control mechanisms be introduced in CAP Strategic Plans from each member state to ensure the EU is set on a sustainable production and consumption path. These include proportional assignment of funds to each CAP objective, quantitative targets to set goals and evidence-based interventions, and relevant indicators to facilitate effective monitoring of environmental performance. Both the CAP and the EGD should maintain ambitious environmental commitments in the face of crisis to avoid further degradation of the natural resources on which production systems stand.     

An assessment of the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment in Europe

ABSTRACT

The agriculture sector is the principal source of income for around 20% of the EU-26 population, which live in predominantly rural regions that would be devastated without its contribution. Moreover, the combined agricultural and food sector forms an important part of the EU economy, accounting for 15 million jobs (8.3% of total employment) and 4.4% of GDP. The 12 million active farmers across Europe today, have an average farm size of about 15 ha, and are expected to meet the needs of 500 million Europeans. In addition, they are also expected to promote a sustainable and balanced development of their land, also in areas where production conditions are difficult. Yet, despite the relevance of the sector, the use of land for agriculture purposes is not very sustainable. Among other issues, there is a serious problem in respect of the abandonment of agricultural land. Based on the perceived need for research on this topic, the aim of this paper is to examine the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment, outlining its social, economic and environmental impacts, as well as the implications for territorial integration.     

Towards sustainability: Objectives,strategies and barriers for cleaner production in China

The paper explores the objectives, strategies and barriers to cleaner production (CP) implementation in China. Successful demonstration projects in China have shown that CP is a strategy for reducing pollution and costs, increasing competitiveness and achieving an integrated balance between economic and environmental benefits. As such, it is an inevitable choice and important contribution to sustainable development. However, it has not progressed enough as a strategy for continuous improvement since its effects are limited to industrial sectors or regions. CP implementation can be assisted by further popularization, policy system improvement, perception and awareness raising and technology innovation. These dimensions are the key tasks and incentives for all levels of government, enterprises and social organizations in moving toward sustainability.     

Dynamics of insect resistance in Bt-corn

The development of genetically modified Bt-corn, incorporating various toxin genes from Bacillus thuringiensis that act as a chemical defense against insect pests, such as the European Corn Borer, provides farmers with a new pest management option. However, the emergence of insect resistance is a threat to the continued use of Bt-corn. The United States Environment Protection Agency (US EPA) has developed planting strategies, for preventing insect resistance by planting a mixture of Bt- and non-Bt-corn. Decisions about the exact proportion of Bt- and non-Bt-corn are based on complex spatially explicit mathematical models using detailed biological assumptions about the population genetics and life history of the European Corn Borer. We develop an alternative simpler model for the spread of resistance based on the logistic growth model, which we believe has utility in situations where it is impossible or impractical to estimate the different life history and genetics parameters required by more detailed models. We use our model to investigate the US EPA’s planting rules for Bt-corn and find that short-term economic behavior is likely to lead to these rules not being followed. Our results add weight to existing work on this problem. We also investigate the economics of planting Bt-corn in markets where consumers do and do not differentiate between the modes of production for the corn. We find that Bt-corn appears to be economic in markets that do not differentiate and uneconomic in markets where consumers do differentiate.     

An overview of systems analysis methods in delineating environmental quality indices

Environmental quality indices (EQIs) have been developed for a variety of purposes ranging from enforcement of environmental standards, to analysis of trends of environmental degradation or improvement, to scientific research. EQIs currently in use are not organized within an integrated framework and thus it has been difficult to analyze adequately complex, multidisciplinary, large-scale, global phenomena. In this paper we compare four different approaches to developing EQIs within a systems perspective. Our analysis suggests that: (1) non-linear regression models that represent an ecosystem's response to different impacts within a stress-response framework (method of response functions) are useful tools for analysis of environmental data; (2) non-equilibrium thermodynamics models based on the concept of exergy, which represents the free energy a system possesses in relation to its environment, provide a common basis for representing many aspects of ecosystem development and response to environmental impacts as a single measure; (3) diagram models based on the concept of emergy, which represents both environmental values and economic values with a single measure, provide a common basis for integrating economic development and environmental protection values into one index; and (4) complex systems simulation models based on general systems theory, which use the methodologies of systems analysis and simulation to identify, quantify, and interrelate EQIs within a dynamic systems context, provide explicit linkages between causes and effects (vertical integration) and identify cross-linkages among different environmental issues (horizontal integration).     

The dynamic causal links between CO2 emissions from transport,real GDP,energy use and international tourism

This study examines the dynamic causality relationship between international tourism and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from transport, real gross domestic product and energy use. The vector error correction model and Granger causality test approach have been used to investigate these relationships for the top ten international tourism destinations spanning the period 1995–2013. Results reveal a unidirectional causality running from CO₂ emissions to economic growth without feedback; a bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy use; a bidirectional causality between international tourism and economic growth; and a bidirectional causality between international tourism and energy use. They also suggest that energy use and international tourism both contribute to the decrease of emissions level coming from transport sector, while economic growth leads to the increase of CO₂ emissions. This study can be used in policy recommendations by encouraging countries to use clean energy and to stimulate tourism sector for combating global warming.     

Integrated maritime policy for the European Union — consolidating coastal and marine information to support maritime spatial planning

Launch of the Integrated Maritime Policy for the European Union in 2007 served as important factor that stimulates consolidation of coastal and marine information to support policy implementation. Policy’s action plan provides approaches for maritime governance, research and planning relevant to information. In particular, roadmap for maritime spatial planning stimulates development of coastal and marine GIS. Article reviews the current general status of coastal and marine systems and puts them in the context of the policy actions. Main focus is on formation of geospatial information platform for integrated assessment and ecosystem-based management of coastal and marine areas. Recent developments in data, indicator and information systems are summarized in European perspective: better characterization of maritime space and marine ecosystems, development of GMES Marine Core service and related in situ data collection; data harmonisation, interoperability and access, promoted by Shared Environmental Information System principles.     

European Union agricultural policy scenarios' impacts on social sustainability of agricultural holdings

This paper aims to assess the impacts of household behaviour on social sustainability by simulating agricultural policy scenarios of the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). For this purpose a multicriteria model was formulated, at farm household level, in order to study the social impacts of the CAPs using different scenarios. The scenarios were chosen on the basis of the main EU policies affecting farm households, such as the alternative crops scenario, the Water Framework Directive scenario and the agrienvironmental schemes scenario. The data for this analysis resulted from the CAP-IRE project, a European FP7-funded project. The model includes a utility function with several conflicting criteria such as maximization of gross margin and risk and labour minimization. The model is further used to simulate the impacts on social sustainability by estimating main social indicators. The model is applied in two different farm types in Greece. The results show that the CAP scenarios have multiple social impacts on agricultural holdings, and particularly on the farm labour structure. These impacts have negative effect on social sustainability.     

Multinational corporations and the EU Emissions Trading System: The specter of asset erosion and creeping deindustrialization

This study seeks to investigate the causal effect of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on firms' holdings of fixed assets as an early indicator of industrial relocation, exploiting installation level inclusion criteria of the regulation. To single out companies with particularly low relocation costs, global multinational enterprises (MNEs), we identify ownership structures for the full sample of EU ETS-firms. Matched Difference-in-Differences estimates provide robust evidence that contradicts the specter of an erosion of European asset bases. Baseline results for the manufacturing sector indicate that the EU ETS led to an on average increase of treated firms' asset bases of 12,1%. However, for a particular subgroup of MNEs, this increase is a mere 2.1%. For these companies, the EU ETS may have induced a shift in investment priorities.     

长株潭城市群静脉产业的一体化发展

作为全国性的两个＂两型社会＂综合改革实验区之一,长株潭城市群发展面临着经济增长、资源短缺、环境保护之间相互制约的困境,是湖南省城市化发展中急需解决的问题。通过分析长株潭城市群发展现状,认为做大做强静脉产业是建立资源节约型和环境友好型社会的重要保障,并从发展体系、经营模式、物流体系、教育体系等几个方面对长株潭城市群静脉产业一体化发展进行了探讨。