Estimating the critical phosphorus loading of shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake: Sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty

There is a vast body of knowledge that eutrophication of lakes may cause algal blooms. Among lakes, shallow lakes are peculiar systems in that they typically can be in one of two contrasting (equilibrium) states that are self-stabilizing: a ‘clear’ state with submerged macrophytes or a ‘turbid’ state dominated by phytoplankton. Eutrophication may cause a switch from the clear to the turbid state, if the P loading exceeds a critical value. The ecological processes governing this switch are covered by the ecosystem model PCLake, a dynamic model of nutrient cycling and the biota in shallow lakes. Here we present an extensive analysis of the model, using a three-step procedure. (1) A sensitivity analysis revealed the key parameters for the model output. (2) These parameters were calibrated on the combined data on total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, macrophytes cover and Secchi depth in over 40 lakes. This was done by a Bayesian procedure, giving a weight to each parameter setting based on its likelihood. (3) These weights were used for an uncertainty analysis, applied to the switchpoints (critical phosphorus loading levels) calculated by the model. The model was most sensitive to changes in water depth, P and N loading, retention time and lake size as external input factors, and to zooplankton growth rate, settling rates and maximum growth rates of phytoplankton and macrophytes as process parameters. The results for the ‘best run’ showed an acceptable agreement between model and data and classified nearly all lakes to which the model was applied correctly as either ‘clear’ (macrophyte-dominated) or ‘turbid’ (phytoplankton-dominated). The critical loading levels for a standard lake showed about a factor two uncertainty due to the variation in the posterior parameter distribution. This study calculates in one coherent analysis uncertainties in critical phosphorus loading, a parameter that is of great importance to water quality managers.     

Benthic-planktonic coupling, regime shifts, and whole-lake primary production in shallow lakes

Alternative stable states in shallow lakes are typically characterized by submerged macrophyte (clear-water state) or phytoplankton (turbid state) dominance. However, a clear-water state may occur in eutrophic lakes even when macrophytes are absent. To test whether sediment algae could cause a regime shift in the absence of macrophytes, we developed a model of benthic (periphyton) and planktonic (phytoplankton) primary production using parameters derived from a shallow macrophyte-free lake that shifted from a turbid to a clear-water state following fish removal (biomanipulation). The model includes a negative feedback effect of periphyton on phosphorus (P) release from sediments. This in turn induces a positive feedback between phytoplankton production and P release. Scenarios incorporating a gradient of external P loading rates revealed that (1) periphyton and phytoplankton both contributed substantially to whole-lake production over a broad range of external P loading in a clear-water state; (2) during the clear-water state, the loss of benthic production was gradually replaced by phytoplankton production, leaving whole-lake production largely unchanged; (3) the responses of lakes to biomanipulation and increased external P loading were both dependent on lake morphometry; and (4) the capacity of periphyton to buffer the effects of increased external P loading and maintain a clear-water state was highly sensitive to relationships between light availability at the sediment surface and the of P release. Our model suggests a mechanism for the persistence of alternative states in shallow macrophyte-free lakes and demonstrates that regime shifts may trigger profound changes in ecosystem structure and function.     

我国淡水藻华长期变动特征综合分析

水体富营养化与淡水藻华（水华）是全球普遍现象,我国是一个高氮磷投入的国家,在人类活动和全球气候变化背景条件下,河流湖库富营养化问题日益突出。文章收集了近30年来我国水华事件的相关文献资料,基于综合研究和统计学分析,回顾性评估了我国水华发生的基本特征、变动规律和成因。数据表明,自上世纪80年代以来,水华发生频率从上世纪80年代每年1～2次上升到2000年以后的每年近10次（不完全统计）,总体呈现上升趋势;水华从湖泊向河流库区扩展,从点到面蔓延,且主要集中在人口密集、污染严重的长江中下游地区和东部沿海地区;在我国化肥施用、畜禽养殖、电站大坝建设等人类活动以及气候变暖的叠加影响下,河流湖库的氮磷浓度上升、氮磷比值下降,水体水化学和生态环境的长期变动加大了水华发生的风险。文章认为,在流域海域综合管理框架下进行氮磷污染的联合控制,以及多学科交叉开展特定水体的水华过程和机理研究是今后藻华防控的根本要求。     

Conservation of the African Great Lakes: A Limnological Perspective

The limnology of Lakes Malawi Tanganyika, and Victoria is discussed with the objective of examining how the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the lakes will determine the response of these ancient great lake ecosystems to human activities. Of the physical properties discussed, large dilution capacities and long flushing times can make the detection and removal of chemical pollutants in these lakes difficult. The outflows of all three lakes are small because of high evaporation losses, and as a result lake levels are responsive to climate changes that would alter evaporation:precipitation ratios. Increased nutrient input to these lakes will likely result in a decrease in the volume of oxygenated water and available fish habitat. Plankton community composition will also change, probably toward dominance by cyanobacteria. While the effects of eutrophication on fish production are difficult to predict, changes in plankton composition would almost certainly be accompanied by changes in fish community structure. Recent studies of water chemistry and plankton productivity in Lake Victoria provide evidence of possible eutrophication. Because land use has a diffuse but potentially large impact on these lakes, conservation strategies must take into account human activities within entire drainage basins. This requires cooperation between riparian countries and technological and financial input from the international community. An immediate need is the establishment of monitoring programs to determine the impact, real or potential, of human activities around the lakes.     

Use of thermodynamic indices as ecological indicators of the development state of lake ecosystems: 2. Exergy and specific exergy indices

The effectiveness of exergy and specific exergy indices as ecological indicators of the trophic state of lake ecosystems is here tested on a small homogeneous set of shallow lakes which, in spite of their similar nutrient concentrations, morphology and hydrology, show a different trophic state and structure, species composition and abundance. The findings reveal that exergy and specific exergy indices have good negative correlation with phytoplankton biomass and Carlson's trophic state index (TSI) and strong positive correlation to water transparency (the relationship between exergy and eutrophication is clearer if the exergy refers to surface units, rather than volume units) and, hence, that they may be used as ecological indicators of the trophic state of lake ecosystems. The relationship between the responses of the thermodynamic approach and other conventional trophic classification methods (Vollenweider's eutrophication model based on phosphorus loading, the Hillbrich-Ilkowska method and the Vollenweider–OECD classification criterion) previously applied to Lake Trasimeno, was also investigated. The decreasing trend of exergy and specific exergy indices with eutrophication increase appears to be essentially due to the change in species composition and trophic structure, rather than to a different trophic potentiality of the ecosystems investigated. Concerning the identification of the environmental factors responsible for exergy and specific exergy trends, the coherence of the correlation structure between water depth, TSI, exergy and specific exergy indices, suggests that the lake's mean water depth plays a significant role in determining the changes in trophic structure and state (and consequently in exergetic indices) within the set of lakes examined and emphasises the importance of lake morphology in the development and ageing of lake ecosystems.     

Macrozoobenthic assemblages in relation to environments of the Yangtze-isolated lakes

Eutrophication can shift lakes from a clear, macrophyte-dominated state to a turbid, algae-dominated state, and different habitat condition supports different fauna. Macrozoobenthos are good indicators of water environment, and studies on macrozoobenthic assemblage characteristics can help us to know which state a lake is in, thus provide the basis for its eutrophication control. In this study, a systematic investigation on macrozoobenthos was conducted in 17 Yangtze-isolated lakes to explore the macroecological laws of macrozoobenthic assemblages. Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) revealed that variance of benthic assemblage structure occurred in two types of lakes. In macrophytic lakes, altogether 51 taxa of macrozoobenthos were identified. The average density and biomass of total macrozoobenthos were 2231 individuals·m^?2 and 1.69 g dry weight·m^?2, respectively. Macrozoobenthic assemblage was characterized by dominance of scrapers (i.e. gastropods). In algal lakes, altogether 20 taxa of macrozoobenthos were identified. The average density and biomass of total macrozoobenthos were 2814 individuals·m^?2 and 1.38 g dry weight·m^?2, respectively. Macrozoobenthic assemblage was characterized by dominance of collector-gatherers (i.e. oligochaetes). Wet biomass of submersed macrophytes (B _Mac) and phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a) were demonstrated as the key factor structuring macrozoobenthic assemblages in macrophytic and algal lakes, respectively.     

A 200-year perspective on alternative stable state theory and lake management from a biomanipulated shallow lake

Multiple stressors to a shallow lake ecosystem have the ability to control the relative stability of alternative states (clear, macrophyte-dominated or turbid, algal-dominated). As a consequence, the use of remedial biomanipulations to induce trophic cascades and shift a turbid lake to a clear state is often only a temporary solution. Here we show the instability of short-term manipulations in the shallow Lake Christina (Minnesota, USA) is governed by the long-term state following a regime shift in the lake. During the modern, managed period of the lake, three top-down manipulations (fish kills) were undertaken inducing temporary (5-10 years) unstable clear-water states. Paleoecological remains of diatoms, along with proxies of primary production (total chlorophyll a and total organic carbon accumulation rate) and trophic state (total P) from sediment records clearly show a single regime shift in the lake during the early 1950s; following this shift, the functioning of the lake ecosystem is dominated by a persistent turbid state. We find that multiple stressors contributed to the regime shift. First, the lake began to eutrophy (from agricultural land use and/or increased waterfowl populations), leading to a dramatic increase in primary production. Soon after, the construction of a dam in 1936 effectively doubled the depth of the lake, compounded by increases in regional humidity; this resulted in an increase in planktivorous and benthivorous fish reducing phytoplankton grazers. These factors further conspired to increase the stability of a turbid regime during the modern managed period, such that switches to a clear-water state were inherently unstable and the lake consistently returned to a turbid state. We conclude that while top-down manipulations have had measurable impacts on the lake state, they have not been effective in providing a return to an ecosystem similar to the stable historical period. Our work offers an example of a well-studied ecosystem forced by multiple stressors into a new long-term managed period, where manipulated clear-water states are temporary, managed features.     

Lake phosphorus dynamics and climate warming: A mechanistic model approach

Model results in this work indicate that lakes may respond very differently to climate change depending on their physical character. A physical lake model and a mechanistic phosphorus model are combined with two temperature scenarios generated by a regional climate model (RCM) in three sites in central Sweden—Lake Erken and two basins of Lake Mälaren (Galten and Ekoln). In the phosphorus model water mixing, mineralization, diffusion and biouptake are temperature dependent. In the simulations, Lake Erken is much more sensitive to climate warming than the two basins of Lake Mälaren, and the reason is shown to be the much longer water residence time in Lake Erken (7 years), stressing the importance of internal lake processes. In Galten and Ekoln the water residence times are less than 1 year, and the effects of water temperature changes are small. In Lake Erken the concentration of epilimnetic-dissolved phosphorus is almost doubled in spring and autumn in the warmest climate scenario. Since the lake is mostly phosphorus limited, this means that the potential for phytoplankton production is almost doubled. The implication would be that in Lake Erken, and in other eutrophic lakes with long water residence times, eutrophication problems may become serious in the future, and that managers may need to take action today in order to maintain good water quality in these lakes.     

Implementation of ecological modeling as an effective management and investigation tool: Lake Kinneret as a case study

The need for scientifically based management of lakes, as key water resources, requires the establishment of quantitative relationships between in-lake processes responsible for water quality (WQ) and the intensity of major management measures (MM, e.g. nutrient loading). In this paper, we estimate the impact of potential changes in nutrient loading on the Lake Kinneret ecosystem. Following validation of the model against a comprehensive dataset, we applied an approach that goes beyond scenario testing by linking the lake ecosystem model DYRESM–CAEDYM with a set of ecosystem variables included in a pre-assessed system of water quality indices. The emergent properties of the ecosystem predicted from the model simulations were also compared with lake data as a form of indirect validation of the model. Model output, in good agreement with lake data, indicated differential effects of nitrogen and phosphorus nutrient loading on concentrations, and major in-lake fluxes, of TN and TP, and dynamics and algal community structure. Both model output and lake data indicated a strong relationship between nitrogen loading and in-lake TN values. This relationship is not apparent for phosphorus and only a weak relationship exists between phosphorus loading and in-lake TP. The modeling results, expressed in terms of water quality, allowed establishment of critical/threshold values for the nutrient loads. Implementation of the ecological modeling supplemented with the quantified set of WQ indices allowed us to take a step towards establishment of the association between permissible ranges for water quality and major management measures, i.e. towards sustainable management.     

Control concept and countermeasures for shallow lakes’ eutrophication in China

Research on lake eutrophication in China began in the early 1970s, and many lakes in China are now known to be in meso-eutrophic status. Lake eutrophication has been showing a rapidly increasing trend since 2000. Investigations show that the main reasons for lake eutrophication include a fragile lake background environment, excessive nutrient loading into lakes, excessive human activities, ecological degeneration, weak environmental protection awareness, and lax lake management. Major mechanisms resulting from lake eutrophication include nutrient recycling imbalance, major changes in water chemistry (pH, oxygen, and carbon), lake ecosystem imbalance, and algal prevalence in lakes. Some concepts for controlling eutrophication should be persistently proposed, including lake catchment control, combination of pollutant source control with ecological restoration, protection of three important aspects (terrestrial ecology, lake coast zone, and submerged plant), and combination of lake management with regulation. Measures to control lake eutrophication should include pollution source control (i.e., optimize industrial structural adjustments in the lake catchment, reduce nitrogen and phosphorus emission amounts, and control endogenous pollution) and lake ecological restoration (i.e. establish a zone-lake buffer region and lakeside zone, protect regional vegetation, utilize hydrophytes in renovation technology); countermeasures for lake management should include implementing water quality management, identifying environmental and lake water goals, legislating and formulating laws and regulations to protect lakes, strengthening publicity and the education of people, increasing public awareness through participation in systems and mechanic innovations, establishing lake region management institutions, and ensuring implementation of governance and management measures.     

湖泊营养物基准的候选变量和指标

湖泊营养物基准指标变量是可用于衡量水质、评价或预测水体的营养状态或富营养化程度的变量,是构成建立区域和湖泊营养物基准的基础。详细介绍和分析了氮、磷两个营养物变量和有机碳、叶绿素、透明度、溶解氧、大型植物、生物群落结构等生物学指标,以及营养状态指标、自养指数、温度、pH值、电导率以及土地利用等一系列相关变量（度量或指标）,并总结了当前美国各州在湖泊营养物基准指标选取方面的基本情况。归纳出选择营养物基准指标时应遵循的若干原则,即综合考虑富营养化控制关键因子和区域差异性,所选指标应具有相对稳定、早期预警和易于监测等特点。最后针对我国湖泊营养物基准指标的选取提出了几点建议。     

Combination of two indication systems in pre-alpine lakes — diatom index and macrophyte index

Since the climax of eutrophication in the early 1980s mainly greater lakes have been investigated and monitored in terms of their nutrient charge. In the future there will still be a need to develop guidelines for monitoring the trophic status of smaller lakes. Four small lakes were investigated by the author in the years 1996 and 1997. In order to define the nutrient charge of those lakes more precisely, special emphasis has been put upon the two criteria diatoms and macrophytes. Eventually an evaluation of the lakes' catchment areas will also be an important component of these studies. Benthic diatoms are the main part of periphyton. As unicellular fast reproducing organisms they are excellent indicators for trophic situations in lakes. The diatom index denotes the trophic status of the littoral zone during the last few weeks before sampling. The macrophytes, however, reflect the nutrient charge over a longer period, i.e. several years. The macrophyte index is based on the fact that some species are most prevalent at certain nutrient loads. The effort to combine these two indication systems carries a high resolution of spatial nutrient changes as well as in temporally changes.     

富营养化对浅水湖泊轮虫种群结构影响研究

石臼湖和固城湖是长江中下游两个浅水湖泊,富营养化问题日益突出。为探索湖泊富营养化对轮虫的影响,于2012年平水期和枯水期对这两个湖泊轮虫种群结构进行了调查,并检测水体理化因子,分析轮虫分布与水环境因子及水体富营养状况的关系。水质检测结果显示,平水期石臼湖除个别点水体综合营养状态指数（TLI）〉50为轻度富营养状态外,大多数站点TLI50,处于轻度-中度富营养化状态。水生生物调查检出轮虫35种,其中石臼湖33种,固城湖27种,平水期种类多于枯水期。出现的轮虫以臂尾轮虫（Brachionus）和异尾轮虫（Trichocerca）居多,优势种主要有螺形龟甲轮虫（Keratella cochlearis）、广生多肢轮虫（Polyarthra vulgaris）、疣毛轮虫（Trichocerca sp.）、沟痕泡轮虫（Pompholyx sulcata）、异尾轮虫属和臂尾轮虫属等。轮虫平均密度3023.19 ind·L-1,平均生物量745.72μg·L-1。现存量季节变动明显,大部分站点平水期大于枯水期。轮虫多样性指数也是平水期大于枯水期,石臼湖轮虫多样性大于固城湖。水体综合营养状态指数（TLI）与轮虫种类数和多样性成显著负相关,随着富营养化加剧,轮虫种类减少,多样性降低。典范对应分析（Canonical Correspondence Analysis,CCA）表明,影响轮虫种群分布的主要环境因子为NH4＋-N、TN、TP和CODMn。按轮虫丰度分布与水环境因子的关系排序,2次调查的24个站点可大致分成3个组。轮虫种群结构受水体富营养状态影响,每组站点的代表性种类对水体营养状态有较好的指示作用。组1的代表性种类为曲腿龟甲轮虫,指示营养级别O-β;组2代表性种类萼花臂尾轮虫,指示的营养级别为β-α;组3以O营养级种类为主。     

罗非鱼-附着藻-沉水植物相互关系研究进展

在浅水富营养化湖泊中,沉水植被是决定湖泊清水态或混水态的关键因子。而附着藻对沉水植物强烈的遮阴作用以及对碳源、营养盐等资源强烈的竞争,成为限制沉水植物群落生长和发展的关键因子。罗非鱼作为一种杂食性鱼类,具有牧食附着藻的能力,其下行效应（top-down effect）可以在一定程度上减轻附着藻对沉水植物生长的这种不利影响。因此,作为我国南方水体中的优势种类,适当种群密度的罗非鱼在富营养化浅水湖泊生态修复过程中是可加以利用,并在一定程度上抑制了附着藻的生长和发展,有利于浅水湖泊的生态修复和管理。同时,罗非鱼也具有通过摄食、排泄等活动加速水体氮、磷营养盐再生,牧食浮游动物、沉水植物等不利的一面。因此,在综合考虑多种因素条件下,需要对罗非鱼-附着藻-沉水植物三者之间的相互关系进行深入研究,探讨生态系统对罗非鱼的响应,这对我国南方浅水富营养化湖泊的生态恢复与管理,尤其是沉水植被的重建与保护具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。     

Stimulation of phytoplankton production in coastal waters by natural rainfall inputs: Nutritional and trophic implications

Recent evaluations of estuarine and coastal nutrient budgets implicate atmospheric deposition as a potentially significant (20 to 30%) source of biologically available nitrogen. We examined the potential growth stimulating impact of atmospheric nitrogen loading (ANL), as local rainfall, in representative shallow, nitrogen limited North Carolina mesohaline estuarine and euhaline coastal Atlantic Ocean habitats. From July 1988 to December 1989, using in situ bioassays, we examined natural phytoplankton growth responses, as¹⁴CO₂ assimilation and chlorophylla production, to rain additions over a range of dilutions mimicking actual input levels. Rainfall at naturally occurring dilutions (0.5 to 5%) stimulated both¹⁴CO₂ assimilation and chlorophylla production, in most cases in a highly significant manner. Parallel nutrient enrichments consistently pointed to nitrogen as the growth stimulating nutrient source. Generally, more acidic rainfall led to greater magnitudes of growth stimulation, especially at lower dilutions. Nutrient analyses of local rainfall from May 1988 to January 1990 indicated an inverse relationship between pH and NO ₃ ^- content. There have been growing concerns regarding increasing coastal and estuarine eutrophication, including ecologically and economically devastating phytoplankton blooms bordering urban and industrial regions of North America, Europe, Japan, and Korea. It appears timely, if not essential, to consider atmospheric nutrient loading in the formulation and implementation of nutrient management strategies aimed at mitigating coastal eutrophication.     

广州市典型中小型水库营养状态与蓝藻种群特征

中小型水库是广州市供水的重要水源地和后备水源地,为了解这类水库的富营养化特征以及蓝藻种群的动态,于2010年的枯水期、丰水期对广州市6座典型的中小型水库进行了采样与分析。结果表明：梅州水库、芙蓉嶂水库为贫-中营养型,三坑水库、百花林水库、和龙水库为中-富营养型,洪秀全水库为富营养型,水库营养状态指数季节变化差异不显著。在同一座水库中,水力滞留时间越长,营养状态指数越高;在不同水库之间,营养状态指数与集雨区内人类活动影响有关。6座水库蓝藻生物量的季节变化明显,受水温和水体稳定性的影响,枯水期蓝藻生物量在0.14~171.8μg.L-1之间,占浮游植物总生物量的0.1%~10.0%;丰水期蓝藻生物量在0.013~32.8 mg.L-1之间,占浮游植物总生物量的6.5%~97.0%。不同营养状态的水库之间蓝藻的生物量和种类差异明显,受营养盐和水力滞留时间的影响,梅州水库、芙蓉嶂水库蓝藻生物量在0.1~16μg.L-1之间,主要种类为泽丝藻（Limnothrix redekei）、卷曲鱼腥藻（Anabaena pertuthate）、水华微囊藻（Microcystis flos-aquae）、粘球藻（Gloeocapsa sp.）;三坑水库、百花林水库、和龙水库蓝藻生物量在0.057~32.8 mg.L-1之间,主要优势种为拟柱孢藻（Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii）、泽丝藻、假鱼腥藻（Pseudanabaena limnetica）;洪秀全水库蓝藻生物量在0.107~2.637 mg.L-1之间,主要优势种为阿氏颤藻（Oscillatoria agardhii）、水华微囊藻、卷曲鱼腥藻。     

Nutrient criteria for lakes,ponds, and reservoirs: A Bayesian TREED model approach

We develop regional-scale eutrophication models for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs to investigate the link between nutrients and chlorophyll-a. The Bayesian TREED (BTREED) model approach allows association of multiple environmental stressors with biological responses, and quantification of uncertainty sources in the empirical water quality model. Nutrient data for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the United States were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Nutrient Criteria Database. The nutrient data consist of measurements for both stressor variables (such as total nitrogen and total phosphorus), and response variables (such as chlorophyll-a), used in the BTREED model. Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) posterior exploration guides a stochastic search through a rich suite of candidate trees toward models that better fit the data. The Bayes factor provides a goodness of fit criterion for comparison of resultant models. We randomly split the data into training and test sets; the training data were used in model estimation, and the test data were used to evaluate out-of-sample predictive performance of the model. An average relative efficiency of 1.02 between the training and test data for the four highest log-likelihood models suggests good out-of-sample predictive performance. Reduced model uncertainty relative to over-parameterized alternative models makes the BTREED models useful for nutrient criteria development, providing the link between nutrient stressors and meaningful eutrophication response.     

On the sudden disappearance of Egeria densa from a Ramsar wetland site of Southern Chile: A climatic event trigger model

Contemporary shallow lakes theory proposes that these ecosystems may experience abrupt regime shifts due to small changes in controlling variables or triggers. So far, these triggers have been related mostly to nutrients as the immediate driver. During May 2004 the río Cruces wetland, a Ramsar site located in Southern Chile, underwent a major regime shift, from a clear water state, vastly dominated by the invasive macrophyte Egeria densa, to a turbid water state. In this article we show, through the analysis of long-term meteorological data that late fall 2004 was anomalous due to the presence of a high-pressure cell that persisted most of the month of May over Southern Chile. This climatic event caused an almost complete absence of precipitations and lower temperatures during this period, including several freezing nights. Eco-physiological experiments showed that 6 h exposure to desiccation kill the macrophyte. We developed a simple-biology dynamic model, under Stella Research 9.1, to show that the climatic anomaly of May 2004, plus the increased sedimentation of the wetland's floodplains, and the associated response of E. densa, explains its sudden disappearance from río Cruces wetland.     

Predicting future effects from nutrient abatement and climate change on phosphorus concentrations in Lake Bourget, France

Like many temperate European lakes, Lake Bourget (France) has suffered from eutrophication during the second half of the last century. Due to a remarkable restoration program, the lake has been recovering for the past 25 years after a massive decrease in total phosphorus (TP) loading. TP concentrations have decreased from about 100-120 to 20-25 μg/L. Additional efforts are, however, still required to obtain a perennially sustainable good ecological status and model parameterisation of fluxes can assist in predicting future outcomes, especially in the context of global warming. In this paper, a dynamic model (MeroLakeMab) was developed and tested with the purpose to reconstruct the loading history of Lake Bourget and to predict TP concentrations during scenarios of increased temperature, decreased water runoff and decreased P loading. Simulations suggested that the historical TP loading decrease may have been as extensive as 88%. Decreases in water discharge to Lake Bourget at magnitudes forecasted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would not affect TP concentrations notably, but marked concentration changes could, however, occur if decreases in runoff would have a strong impact on the TP loading. Increasing temperature effects on yearly mean TP concentrations in the water column would be very small compared to effects from changes in the TP loading. Predictions such as these could be instrumental for future successful lake management.     

三峡水库浮游植物群落特征及水体富营养化评价

基于2003—2017年三峡水库浮游植物群落结构、优势种群的变化和2017年水库干支流水质数据,全面分析浮游植物群落结构和演替特征,并运用综合营养状态指数法对水体富营养化程度进行评价。结果表明,三峡水库浮游植物种类丰富,监测期间共鉴定出浮游植物7门62属,细胞密度在7.5×10~4~2.8×10~7cell/L之间变化,Shannon-Wiener多样性指数为1.0~3.0,在α-中污带和β-中污带之间,说明三峡水库水生态环境健康状况相对较好;三峡水库浮游植物季节性演替特征呈硅藻和甲藻向蓝藻和绿藻演替的趋势,年际变化特征分析发现浮游植物密度在2008年175 m实验蓄水后大量增长,且优势藻类由河道型藻类向湖泊型藻类转化。通过监测数据分析,得出三峡水库干流处于中营养状态,支流在春季主要处于轻度富营养状态,秋季支流比春季支流的富营养化程度低,主要处于中营养状态,总氮(total nitrogen,TN)、总磷(total phosphorus,TP)和透明度(transparency,SD)为水质主要影响因子。