Estimating the critical phosphorus loading of shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake: Sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty

There is a vast body of knowledge that eutrophication of lakes may cause algal blooms. Among lakes, shallow lakes are peculiar systems in that they typically can be in one of two contrasting (equilibrium) states that are self-stabilizing: a ‘clear’ state with submerged macrophytes or a ‘turbid’ state dominated by phytoplankton. Eutrophication may cause a switch from the clear to the turbid state, if the P loading exceeds a critical value. The ecological processes governing this switch are covered by the ecosystem model PCLake, a dynamic model of nutrient cycling and the biota in shallow lakes. Here we present an extensive analysis of the model, using a three-step procedure. (1) A sensitivity analysis revealed the key parameters for the model output. (2) These parameters were calibrated on the combined data on total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, macrophytes cover and Secchi depth in over 40 lakes. This was done by a Bayesian procedure, giving a weight to each parameter setting based on its likelihood. (3) These weights were used for an uncertainty analysis, applied to the switchpoints (critical phosphorus loading levels) calculated by the model. The model was most sensitive to changes in water depth, P and N loading, retention time and lake size as external input factors, and to zooplankton growth rate, settling rates and maximum growth rates of phytoplankton and macrophytes as process parameters. The results for the ‘best run’ showed an acceptable agreement between model and data and classified nearly all lakes to which the model was applied correctly as either ‘clear’ (macrophyte-dominated) or ‘turbid’ (phytoplankton-dominated). The critical loading levels for a standard lake showed about a factor two uncertainty due to the variation in the posterior parameter distribution. This study calculates in one coherent analysis uncertainties in critical phosphorus loading, a parameter that is of great importance to water quality managers.     

Macrozoobenthic assemblages in relation to environments of the Yangtze-isolated lakes

Eutrophication can shift lakes from a clear, macrophyte-dominated state to a turbid, algae-dominated state, and different habitat condition supports different fauna. Macrozoobenthos are good indicators of water environment, and studies on macrozoobenthic assemblage characteristics can help us to know which state a lake is in, thus provide the basis for its eutrophication control. In this study, a systematic investigation on macrozoobenthos was conducted in 17 Yangtze-isolated lakes to explore the macroecological laws of macrozoobenthic assemblages. Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) revealed that variance of benthic assemblage structure occurred in two types of lakes. In macrophytic lakes, altogether 51 taxa of macrozoobenthos were identified. The average density and biomass of total macrozoobenthos were 2231 individuals·m^?2 and 1.69 g dry weight·m^?2, respectively. Macrozoobenthic assemblage was characterized by dominance of scrapers (i.e. gastropods). In algal lakes, altogether 20 taxa of macrozoobenthos were identified. The average density and biomass of total macrozoobenthos were 2814 individuals·m^?2 and 1.38 g dry weight·m^?2, respectively. Macrozoobenthic assemblage was characterized by dominance of collector-gatherers (i.e. oligochaetes). Wet biomass of submersed macrophytes (B _Mac) and phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentration (Chl a) were demonstrated as the key factor structuring macrozoobenthic assemblages in macrophytic and algal lakes, respectively.     

Diapycnal Mixing in the Thermocline of Lakes: Estimations by Different Methods

In order to evaluate the performance of different methods for estimation of the vertical eddy diffusivity in thermally stratified lakes, two field studies were conducted in Lake Biwa, Japan and Lake Kinneret, Israel. Lake Biwa experienced three typhoons during the campaign while Lake Kinneret experienced high winds in the afternoons. Microstructure profiles were collected by a portable flux profiler (PFP) during calm and disturbed periods. Then, the vertical eddy diffusivity was estimated by three indirect methods. The estimated vertical eddy diffusivities varied more than one order of magnitude, from 4.7× 10⁻⁷ to 7.7× 10⁻⁶ m² s⁻¹. The comparison of results with previous buoyancy flux measurements and scaling arguments showed that the Dillon–Park’s method is not appropriate and Osborn–Cox method performs better than Osborn method in the studied case. Furthermore, the low value of vertical eddy diffusivity within the thermocline suggests that within the thermocline of these lakes, diffusive vertical transport can be neglected.     

Use of thermodynamic indices as ecological indicators of the development state of lake ecosystems: 2. Exergy and specific exergy indices

The effectiveness of exergy and specific exergy indices as ecological indicators of the trophic state of lake ecosystems is here tested on a small homogeneous set of shallow lakes which, in spite of their similar nutrient concentrations, morphology and hydrology, show a different trophic state and structure, species composition and abundance. The findings reveal that exergy and specific exergy indices have good negative correlation with phytoplankton biomass and Carlson's trophic state index (TSI) and strong positive correlation to water transparency (the relationship between exergy and eutrophication is clearer if the exergy refers to surface units, rather than volume units) and, hence, that they may be used as ecological indicators of the trophic state of lake ecosystems. The relationship between the responses of the thermodynamic approach and other conventional trophic classification methods (Vollenweider's eutrophication model based on phosphorus loading, the Hillbrich-Ilkowska method and the Vollenweider–OECD classification criterion) previously applied to Lake Trasimeno, was also investigated. The decreasing trend of exergy and specific exergy indices with eutrophication increase appears to be essentially due to the change in species composition and trophic structure, rather than to a different trophic potentiality of the ecosystems investigated. Concerning the identification of the environmental factors responsible for exergy and specific exergy trends, the coherence of the correlation structure between water depth, TSI, exergy and specific exergy indices, suggests that the lake's mean water depth plays a significant role in determining the changes in trophic structure and state (and consequently in exergetic indices) within the set of lakes examined and emphasises the importance of lake morphology in the development and ageing of lake ecosystems.     

中国湖泊富营养化影响因素研究——基于中国22个湖泊实证分析

基于1：25万河流水系和数字高程（DEM）数据制备了选取湖泊的流域边界,据其集成了流域社会经济数据,并据中国科学院资源环境数据中心提供的1990、1995、2000、2005年4个时段土地利用数据形成了流域反映人类活动强度的表征指标,选取了全国湖泊富营养化区域差异性调查课题获取的案例湖泊的水质数据,集成了中国湖泊富营养化影响因素计量分析的面板数据集,研究了1990-2005年间中国湖泊营养状态的发展趋势与差异特征,探讨了湖泊富营养化的自然气候与社会经济影响机制,构建了中国湖泊富营养化影响因素分析的计量模型,厘定了1990-2005年间影响湖泊营养状态变化的重要因素,测度了其对湖泊富营养化的影响方向和作用强度。基于面板数据的计量分析结果表明,近15年人类活动强度对湖泊营养状态呈显著的正影响,其表征指标人均GDP与建设用地所占流域面积比均具有较强的显著性,而在人类扰动较小的情况下,湖泊的营养状态与湖泊补给系数成正比,与湖泊蓄容量成反比,补给系数较小且其他因素也相同时,水体营养状态应与流域土壤本底值相关;以林、草地的面积比重所测度的流域自然生态系统发育程度与湖泊营养状态呈显著负相关关系,表明林地与草地生态系统对流域的氮、磷营养物的人湖量具有一定的削减作用,论文研究结果将为流域管理措施方案制订提供科技支撑。     

Linking species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change in lakes with a complex and a minimal model

To study the interaction between species- and ecosystem-level impacts of climate change, we focus on the question of how climate-induced shifts in key species affect the positive feedback loops that lock shallow lakes either in a transparent, macrophyte-dominated state or, alternatively, in a turbid, phytoplankton-dominated state. We hypothesize that climate warming will weaken the resilience of the macrophyte-dominated clear state. For the turbid state, we hypothesize that climate warming and climate-induced eutrophication will increase the dominance of cyanobacteria. Climate change will also affect shallow lakes through a changing hydrology and through climate change-induced eutrophication. We study these phenomena using two models, the full ecosystem model PCLake and a minimal dynamic model of lake phosphorus dynamics. Quantitative predictions with the complex model show that changes in nutrient loading, hydraulic loading and climate warming can all lead to shifts in ecosystem state. The minimal model helped in interpreting the non-linear behaviour of the complex model. The main output parameters of interest for water quality managers are the critical nutrient loading at which the system will switch from clear to turbid and the much lower critical nutrient loading – due to hysteresis – at which the system switches back. Another important output parameter is the chlorophyll-a level in the turbid state. For each of these three output parameters we performed a sensitivity analysis to further understand the dynamics of the complex model PCLake. This analysis showed that our model results are most sensitive to changes in temperature-dependence of cyanobacteria, planktivorous fish and zooplankton. We argue that by combining models at various levels of complexity and looking at multiple aspects of climate changes simultaneously we can develop an integrated view of the potential impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.     

Nutrient criteria for lakes,ponds, and reservoirs: A Bayesian TREED model approach

We develop regional-scale eutrophication models for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs to investigate the link between nutrients and chlorophyll-a. The Bayesian TREED (BTREED) model approach allows association of multiple environmental stressors with biological responses, and quantification of uncertainty sources in the empirical water quality model. Nutrient data for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the United States were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Nutrient Criteria Database. The nutrient data consist of measurements for both stressor variables (such as total nitrogen and total phosphorus), and response variables (such as chlorophyll-a), used in the BTREED model. Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) posterior exploration guides a stochastic search through a rich suite of candidate trees toward models that better fit the data. The Bayes factor provides a goodness of fit criterion for comparison of resultant models. We randomly split the data into training and test sets; the training data were used in model estimation, and the test data were used to evaluate out-of-sample predictive performance of the model. An average relative efficiency of 1.02 between the training and test data for the four highest log-likelihood models suggests good out-of-sample predictive performance. Reduced model uncertainty relative to over-parameterized alternative models makes the BTREED models useful for nutrient criteria development, providing the link between nutrient stressors and meaningful eutrophication response.     

Conservation of the African Great Lakes: A Limnological Perspective

The limnology of Lakes Malawi Tanganyika, and Victoria is discussed with the objective of examining how the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the lakes will determine the response of these ancient great lake ecosystems to human activities. Of the physical properties discussed, large dilution capacities and long flushing times can make the detection and removal of chemical pollutants in these lakes difficult. The outflows of all three lakes are small because of high evaporation losses, and as a result lake levels are responsive to climate changes that would alter evaporation:precipitation ratios. Increased nutrient input to these lakes will likely result in a decrease in the volume of oxygenated water and available fish habitat. Plankton community composition will also change, probably toward dominance by cyanobacteria. While the effects of eutrophication on fish production are difficult to predict, changes in plankton composition would almost certainly be accompanied by changes in fish community structure. Recent studies of water chemistry and plankton productivity in Lake Victoria provide evidence of possible eutrophication. Because land use has a diffuse but potentially large impact on these lakes, conservation strategies must take into account human activities within entire drainage basins. This requires cooperation between riparian countries and technological and financial input from the international community. An immediate need is the establishment of monitoring programs to determine the impact, real or potential, of human activities around the lakes.     

Lake phosphorus dynamics and climate warming: A mechanistic model approach

Model results in this work indicate that lakes may respond very differently to climate change depending on their physical character. A physical lake model and a mechanistic phosphorus model are combined with two temperature scenarios generated by a regional climate model (RCM) in three sites in central Sweden—Lake Erken and two basins of Lake Mälaren (Galten and Ekoln). In the phosphorus model water mixing, mineralization, diffusion and biouptake are temperature dependent. In the simulations, Lake Erken is much more sensitive to climate warming than the two basins of Lake Mälaren, and the reason is shown to be the much longer water residence time in Lake Erken (7 years), stressing the importance of internal lake processes. In Galten and Ekoln the water residence times are less than 1 year, and the effects of water temperature changes are small. In Lake Erken the concentration of epilimnetic-dissolved phosphorus is almost doubled in spring and autumn in the warmest climate scenario. Since the lake is mostly phosphorus limited, this means that the potential for phytoplankton production is almost doubled. The implication would be that in Lake Erken, and in other eutrophic lakes with long water residence times, eutrophication problems may become serious in the future, and that managers may need to take action today in order to maintain good water quality in these lakes.     

Control concept and countermeasures for shallow lakes’ eutrophication in China

Research on lake eutrophication in China began in the early 1970s, and many lakes in China are now known to be in meso-eutrophic status. Lake eutrophication has been showing a rapidly increasing trend since 2000. Investigations show that the main reasons for lake eutrophication include a fragile lake background environment, excessive nutrient loading into lakes, excessive human activities, ecological degeneration, weak environmental protection awareness, and lax lake management. Major mechanisms resulting from lake eutrophication include nutrient recycling imbalance, major changes in water chemistry (pH, oxygen, and carbon), lake ecosystem imbalance, and algal prevalence in lakes. Some concepts for controlling eutrophication should be persistently proposed, including lake catchment control, combination of pollutant source control with ecological restoration, protection of three important aspects (terrestrial ecology, lake coast zone, and submerged plant), and combination of lake management with regulation. Measures to control lake eutrophication should include pollution source control (i.e., optimize industrial structural adjustments in the lake catchment, reduce nitrogen and phosphorus emission amounts, and control endogenous pollution) and lake ecological restoration (i.e. establish a zone-lake buffer region and lakeside zone, protect regional vegetation, utilize hydrophytes in renovation technology); countermeasures for lake management should include implementing water quality management, identifying environmental and lake water goals, legislating and formulating laws and regulations to protect lakes, strengthening publicity and the education of people, increasing public awareness through participation in systems and mechanic innovations, establishing lake region management institutions, and ensuring implementation of governance and management measures.     

我国淡水藻华长期变动特征综合分析

水体富营养化与淡水藻华（水华）是全球普遍现象,我国是一个高氮磷投入的国家,在人类活动和全球气候变化背景条件下,河流湖库富营养化问题日益突出。文章收集了近30年来我国水华事件的相关文献资料,基于综合研究和统计学分析,回顾性评估了我国水华发生的基本特征、变动规律和成因。数据表明,自上世纪80年代以来,水华发生频率从上世纪80年代每年1～2次上升到2000年以后的每年近10次（不完全统计）,总体呈现上升趋势;水华从湖泊向河流库区扩展,从点到面蔓延,且主要集中在人口密集、污染严重的长江中下游地区和东部沿海地区;在我国化肥施用、畜禽养殖、电站大坝建设等人类活动以及气候变暖的叠加影响下,河流湖库的氮磷浓度上升、氮磷比值下降,水体水化学和生态环境的长期变动加大了水华发生的风险。文章认为,在流域海域综合管理框架下进行氮磷污染的联合控制,以及多学科交叉开展特定水体的水华过程和机理研究是今后藻华防控的根本要求。     

Dynamics of the nitrogen cycle in a lake and its stability

Recent eutrophication of lakes or sea water has caused serious damage to the ecological balance in aquatic systems and to the quality of water for human use. The purpose of this study is to construct a dynamic model of the nitrogen cycle in a lake and to study the dynamic behavior of the various nitrogen forms such as organic, inorganic and plankton in connection with the mechanism of algal blooms in lakes. The dynamics of the system are represented by a system of non-linear differential equations which include the predator-prey relation between plankton types, and are discussed with the stability analysis of the critical points of differential equations. The effects of seasonal changes of environmental parameters are studied with computer simulations.     

中国富营养化湖泊的生物修复

描述了中国湖泊富营养化污染现状 ,论述了湖泊富营养化形成的机理、生物修复富营养化湖泊 (尤其是去除水体和底泥碳、氮、磷 )的理论依据 ;提出了修复湖泊富营养化的技术途径 ,阐明了笔者对机械清淤和生物修复各自具有的优势和缺陷的看法。     

富营养化对浅水湖泊轮虫种群结构影响研究

石臼湖和固城湖是长江中下游两个浅水湖泊,富营养化问题日益突出。为探索湖泊富营养化对轮虫的影响,于2012年平水期和枯水期对这两个湖泊轮虫种群结构进行了调查,并检测水体理化因子,分析轮虫分布与水环境因子及水体富营养状况的关系。水质检测结果显示,平水期石臼湖除个别点水体综合营养状态指数（TLI）〉50为轻度富营养状态外,大多数站点TLI50,处于轻度-中度富营养化状态。水生生物调查检出轮虫35种,其中石臼湖33种,固城湖27种,平水期种类多于枯水期。出现的轮虫以臂尾轮虫（Brachionus）和异尾轮虫（Trichocerca）居多,优势种主要有螺形龟甲轮虫（Keratella cochlearis）、广生多肢轮虫（Polyarthra vulgaris）、疣毛轮虫（Trichocerca sp.）、沟痕泡轮虫（Pompholyx sulcata）、异尾轮虫属和臂尾轮虫属等。轮虫平均密度3023.19 ind·L-1,平均生物量745.72μg·L-1。现存量季节变动明显,大部分站点平水期大于枯水期。轮虫多样性指数也是平水期大于枯水期,石臼湖轮虫多样性大于固城湖。水体综合营养状态指数（TLI）与轮虫种类数和多样性成显著负相关,随着富营养化加剧,轮虫种类减少,多样性降低。典范对应分析（Canonical Correspondence Analysis,CCA）表明,影响轮虫种群分布的主要环境因子为NH4＋-N、TN、TP和CODMn。按轮虫丰度分布与水环境因子的关系排序,2次调查的24个站点可大致分成3个组。轮虫种群结构受水体富营养状态影响,每组站点的代表性种类对水体营养状态有较好的指示作用。组1的代表性种类为曲腿龟甲轮虫,指示营养级别O-β;组2代表性种类萼花臂尾轮虫,指示的营养级别为β-α;组3以O营养级种类为主。     

Assessment of the effects of a port expansion on algae appearance in a costal bay through mathematical modelling. Application to San Lorenzo Bay (North Spain)

In the last years several episodes of algae appearance affecting bathing areas have been observed in San Lorenzo Bay (north of Spain). The analysis of the collected algae revealed that they might come from near intertidal or shallow subtidal zones due to eutrophication processes or through drift algae movement by the action of marine currents. In the vicinity of this area, the expansion of the Port of Gijón (now under construction) supposes a significant modification of the coastal geometry. The magnitude of such an expansion could cause changes in the patterns of currents in the bay, with the consequent alteration of the observed algal appearance phenomena. A mathematical modelling study to evaluate the risk of generation of eutrophication processes in the San Lorenzo Bay area and the transport of drift algae from near sea bed areas was developed. This study required the use of different hydrodynamic models in order to characterize the currents caused by tides, winds and waves. The eutrophication processes in the bay were analyzed with a depth-averaged two-dimensional eutrophication model which deals with eight water quality variables. Calibration of model parameters with the observed data from a field survey was performed. A reasonable agreement with the field measurements was achieved. Model results showed that the maximum phytoplankton concentrations were below eutrophic conditions. Although, the port expansion has led to an increment of phytoplankton concentrations, chlorophyll a levels were not representative of eutrophic conditions. To analyse the transport of drift algae, a methodology based on the utilization of a two-dimensional model which solves the depth-averaged advection-diffusion equation considering seaweed as a conservative tracer was developed and applied. Numerical modelling allowed the identification of the coastal areas that seems to be the source of the seaweed found on the beach. It was also proven that port expansion does not significantly affect drift algae transport in the area.     

Exploitation and destabilization of a warm, freshwater ecosystem through engineered hydrological change

Exploitation of freshwater resources is having catastrophic effects on the ecological dynamics, stability, and quality of those water resources on a global scale, especially in arid and semiarid regions. Lake Kinneret, Israel (the Biblical Sea of Galilee), the only major natural freshwater lake in the Middle East, has been transformed functionally into a reservoir over the course of approximately 70 years of hydrological alterations aimed mostly at producing electrical power and increasing domestic and agricultural water supply. Historical changes in lake chemistry and biology were reconstructed using analysis of sedimentary nutrient content, stable and radioisotope composition, biochemical and morphological fossils from algae, remains of aquatic invertebrates, and chemical indices of past light regimes. Together, these paleolimnological analyses of the lake's bottom sediments revealed that this transformation has been accompanied by acceleration in the rate of eutrophication, as indicated by increased accumulation rates of phosphorus, nitrogen, organic matter, phytoplankton and bacterial pigments, and remains of phytoplankton and zooplankton. Substantial increases in these indices of eutrophication coincide with periods of increased water-level fluctuations and drainage of a major upstream wetland in the early to middle 20th century and suggest that management of the lake for increased water supply has degraded water quality to the point that ecosystem stability and sustainability are threatened. Such destabilization may be a model for eutrophication of freshwater lakes in other arid regions of the world in which management emphasizes water quantity over quality.     

Presentation and analysis of a model simulating epilimnetic and hypolimnetic temperatures in lakes

An important factor in aquatic modelling is water temperature. This is especially true for dimictic lakes where stratification and mixing influence many processes and variables, such as oxygen conditions, lake water retention time, etc. This paper evaluates and improves an existing method to predict water temperatures developed by Håkanson ,1996 (Ecol. Model., 88:157–181). The method is incorporated in a model simulating water temperatures in epilimnion and hypolimnion. The model is calibrated and validated against an extensive set of empirical data. It is driven by readily available parameters, e.g. latitude, continentality and altitude. The predictive power, especially for the epilimnetic temperature, is such that the model could be used as a sub-model in many models concerning lake ecosystems. However, the model has only been tested for Swedish lakes covering a relatively narrow range in terms of latitude, longitude and altitude and it would be interesting to investigate if this approach also holds for other parts of the world. As an example of how the model can be used in practise, a simulation of retention of caesium in lake water, using the temperature model as a sub-model, is presented.     

Modeling linkages between sediment resuspension and water quality in a shallow,eutrophic, wind-exposed lake

The interactions between bed sediments and the water column in shallow, eutrophic lakes have tremendous implications for the fate and transport of nutrients in those water bodies. This has resulted in the development of water quality models for lakes incorporating the processes of sediment resuspension. Reliable resuspension models are thus needed to accurately represent this phenomenon. In this paper, three different sediment-resuspension models are combined with a hydrodynamic and water quality model, dynamic lake model-water quality (DLM-WQ), and the resulting models are used to simulate nutrient distributions in the highly eutrophic Salton Sea, California, USA. One of the resuspension formulas is based upon sediment characteristics as well as the bed shear stress exerted by wind-induced waves and currents, while the other two are standard, power-law-type formulas for cohesive sediments with two different exponents. The outputs for water quality variables, such as temperature, chlorophyll a, dissolved oxygen and nutrients, obtained from the three resulting models and from an earlier DLM-WQ run with a simple empirical sediment-resuspension model are compared with measured data. The level of agreement between the simulations and the measured data is assessed by using both statistical and graphical model evaluation methods, including measures of residual errors, sample autocorrelations, t-tests, and box plots. Based on these assessments, DLM-WQ with an extended version of the García and Parker [García, M.H., Parker, G., 1993. Experiments on the entrainment of sediment into suspension by a dense bottom current. J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans 98, 4793–4807] relationship gave the best results for water quality in the Salton Sea, confirming that the use of formulas with more information on the sediment characteristics yields more accurate results. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort to combine water quality models for lakes and reservoirs with a sediment-resuspension model which was originally intended for open-channel flows. The simulations confirm that sediment resuspension is the most dominant process in the Salton Sea's nutrient cycling. The effect of proposed physical changes to the Salton Sea on water quality characteristics is also addressed.     

A thermodynamic model of freshwater Antarctic lake ice

Antarctic lakes with simple plankton ecosystems are believed to be sensitive biological indicators of climate change. Models of the physical environment, in particular the ice layer, support understanding of how the ecosystems respond to meteorological variables. This paper describes how data from a previously reported automatic measuring probe and meteorological data from Davis station were used to develop a detailed thermodynamic model of the ice layer on Crooked Lake, one of the largest and deepest freshwater lakes in Antarctica. The general model structure is similar to a previously reported model of sea ice but with modifications specific to the Antarctic freshwater lake case informed by the data. The model inputs are atmospheric variables as well as water temperature, ice albedo and the radiation extinction coefficient for the ice. Heat and radiation fluxes at the ice–air and ice–water boundaries are calculated using equations chosen for their suitability for the Antarctic. In the case of shortwave radiation, equations were fitted to data from the automatic probe. Using the heat fluxes to establish boundary conditions, and incorporating the known thermodynamic properties of ice, the temperature profile within the ice and the resulting growth and melt of the ice can be calculated. The model uses a largely mechanistic approach, with most equations taken from established thermodynamic theories or empirical studies and only one adjustable parameter related to the sensible heat flux from the water, which is not easily calculated from the available data. It was found to accurately reproduce ice temperature and ice thickness data for the year 2003, with r² = 0.89, n = 2005. Finally, the model was simplified to run with air temperature as the only input variable and was shown to perform well—this suggests that freshwater lake ice is affected more by air temperature than any other variable, and is therefore a useful indicator of climate change in its own right.