Competing land uses and fossil fuel,and optimal energy conversion rates during the transition toward a green economy under a pollution stock constraint

We study the transition to a carbon-free economy in a model with a polluting non-renewable resource and a clean renewable resource. Transforming primary energy into ready-to-use energy services is costly and more efficient energy transformation rates are more costly to achieve. Renewable energy competes with food production for land and the food productivity of land can be improved at some cost. To avoid catastrophic climate damages, the pollution stock is mandated to stay below a given cap. When the economy is not constrained by the cap, the efficiency of energy transformation increases steadily until the transition toward the ultimate green economy; when renewable energy is exploited, its land use rises at the expense of food production; food productivity increases together with the land rent but food production drops; the food and energy prices increase and renewables substitute for non-renewable energy. During the constrained phase, the economy follows a constant path of prices, quantities, efficiency rates, food productivity and land rent, a phenomenon we call the ‘ceiling efficiency paradox’.     

Climate change and urban land systems: bridging the gaps between urbanism and land science

ABSTRACT

Land science has generated critical knowledge about how humans modify Earth’s surface and has advanced our understanding of land as a coupled human–environment system. However, to date, most work has been in frontier environments with less attention – both conceptually and empirically – on how urban land systems affect the carbon cycle. Much of what is known about urban areas and the carbon cycle is limited to aggregate levels of activities within urban areas, usually by sector, with little focus on how the spatial configuration of urban land systems affects carbon-emitting activities. Given that urban areas produce about 70% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions, it is crucial to understand the relationship between urban environments, the activities they influence, and the resulting carbon emissions. This paper summarizes the current state of knowledge of how urban land systems affect carbon emissions and vulnerability, and identifies research gaps and opportunities for urban land science to contribute to climate change science, particularly through land architecture. We argue that more attention to urban land science conceptualization, measurement, and analysis would contribute to both fundamental knowledge about urban systems, as well as help identify policies and strategies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change at the urban scale.     

From teleconnection to telecoupling: taking stock of an emerging framework in land system science

Land use change is influenced by a complexity of drivers that transcend spatial, institutional and temporal scales. The analytical framework of telecoupling has recently been proposed in land system science to address this complexity, particularly the increasing importance of distal connections, flows and feedbacks characterising change in land systems. This framework holds important potential for advancing the analysis of land system change. In this article, we review the state of the art of the telecoupling framework in the land system science literature. The article traces the development of the framework from teleconnection to telecoupling and presents two approaches to telecoupling analysis currently proposed in the literature. Subsequently, we discuss a number of analytical challenges related to categorisation of systems, system boundaries, hierarchy and scale. Finally, we propose approaches to address these challenges by looking beyond land system science to theoretical perspectives from economic geography, social metabolism studies, political ecology and cultural anthropology.     

Methodology for an urban ecological footprint to evaluate sustainable development in China

The ecological footprint (EF) is a method for measuring sustainable development through ecological impact. A methodology is presented for predicting urban ecological footprints. Urban energy use and natural resource consumption were analyzed to calculate an EF based on land type (arable, pasture, forest, fossil energy land, built-up area and water area) and consumption (food, housing, transportation, goods, services and waste). The result was then compared with the local ecological carrying capacity to develop criteria for sustainable ecological footprints. Case studies of four cities in China (Guangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou and Yangzhou) illustrate the urban EF approach. The time series of EF in a case study of Guangzhou for 1991–2001 was analyzed and the consumption–land-use matrix of urban EF was established. The results show that the cities are ecologically unsustainable, with average ecological conflicts per capita of more than 2 ha. The urban EF method is useful to measure urban sustainable development and provides policy proposals for decision-making. However, the EF method still has limitations and weaknesses.     

Industrial development and land use/cover change and their effects on local environment: a case study of Changshu in eastern coastal China

The interactions among industrial development, land use/cover change (LUCC), and environmental effects in Changshu in the eastern coastal China were analyzed using high-resolution Landsat TM data in 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2006, socio-economic data and water environmental quality monitoring data from research institutes and governmental departments. Three phases of industrial development in Changshu were examined (i.e., the three periods of 1990 to 1995, 1995 to 2000, and 2000 to 2006). Besides industrial development and rapid urbanization, land use/cover in Changshu had changed drastically from 1990 to 2006. This change was characterized by major replacements of farmland by urban and rural settlements, artificial ponds, forested and constructed land. Industrialization, urbanization, agricultural structure adjustment, and rural housing construction were the major socio-economic driving forces of LUCC in Changshu. In addition, the annual value of ecosystem services in Changshu decreased slightly during 1990–2000, but increased significantly during 2000–2006. Nevertheless, the local environmental quality in Changshu, especially in rural areas, has not yet been improved significantly. Thus, this paper suggests an increased attention to fully realize the role of land supply in adjustment of environment-friendly industrial structure and urban-rural spatial restructuring, and translating the land management and environmental protection policies into an optimized industrial distribution and land-use pattern.     

Environmental change and declining resource availability for small-mammal communities in the Great Basin

Changes in climate and land use can impact natural systems across all levels of ecological organization. Most documented and anticipated effects consider species' properties, including phenologies, geographic distributions, and abundances. Responses of higher-level aggregate community or ecosystem properties have not been considered as they are assumed to be relatively stable due to compensatory dynamics and diversity-stability relationships. However, this assumption may not be as fundamental as previously thought. Here we assess stability in the aggregate properties of total abundance, biomass, and energy consumption for small-mammal communities in the Great Basin, using paired historical and modern survey data spanning nearly a century of environmental change. Results show marked declines in each aggregate property independent of spatial scale, elevation, or habitat type, and a reallocation of available biomass and energy favoring diet and habitat generalists. Because aggregate properties directly reflect resource availability, our findings indicate a regionwide decline in resources of 50% over the past century, which may signal a resource crisis. This work illustrates the power of using aggregate properties as indicators of ecological conditions and environmental change at broad spatial and temporal scales.     

Smoothing of land use maps for trend and change detection in urbanization

Urban sprawl and its evolution over relatively short periods of time demands that we develop statistical tools to make best use of the routinely produced land use data from satellites. An efficient smoothing framework to estimate spatial patterns in binary raster maps derived from land use datasets is developed and presented in this paper. The framework is motivated by the need to model urbanization, specifically urban sprawl, and also its temporal evolution. We frame the problem as estimation of a probability of urbanization surface and use Bayesian P-splines as the tool of choice. Once such a probability map is produced, with associated uncertainty, we develop exploratory tools to identify regions of significant change across space and time. The proposal is used to study urbanisation and its development around the city of Bologna, Emilia Romagna, Italy, using land use data from the Cartography Archive of Emilia Romagna Region for the period 1976–2008.     

Urban development and landscape change in the Yangtze River Delta region in China

The impact of large-scale urban development on land resources has long been debated by urban planners and designers. This study investigated the extent to which different urban characteristics are associated with land-cover change. The Yangtze River Delta region in China, forming one of the largest sprawling urban landscapes among the regions around the world, was chosen for the study area. Spatial analysis and multiple regression methods were applied to empirically investigate the pattern of resource sites lost to urban development in the area between the 1950s and 2017. The results showed that contrary to the widespread notion that large-sized cities are predominantly responsible for a region’s environmental degradation, city size was not a significant factor in determining the rate of resource loss. Large-sized cities gained their populations with far lesser impacts on land than small-sized cities and towns if normalized to the same number of populations. One explanation for the diminishing effect of city size on land-cover change relates to the degree of spatial dispersion of urban development and local differences in social valuation of diversified lands by cities.     

Effect of land use and land cover change on soil erosion and the spatio-temporal variation in Liupan Mountain Region, southern Ningxia, China

The Liupan Mountains are located in the southern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China, that forms an important divide between landforms and biogeographic regions. The populated part of the Liupan Mountain Region has suffered tremendous ecological damage over time due to population pressure, excessive demand and inappropriate use of agricultural land resources. To present the relationship between land use/cover change and spatio-temporal variation of soil erosion, data sets of land use between the late 1980s and 2000 were obtained from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, and spatial models were used to characterize landscape and soil erosion conditions. Also, soil erosion in response to land use and land cover change were quantified and analyzed using data from geographical information systems and remote sensing. Soil erosion by water was the dominant mode of soil loss, while soil erosion by wind was only present on a relatively small area. The degree of soil erosion was classified into five severity classes: slight, light, moderate, severe, and very severe. Soil erosion in the Liupan Mountain Region increased between the late 1980s and 2000, both in terms of acreage and severity. Moderate, severe, and very severe eroded areas accounted for 54.86% of the total land area. The lightly eroded area decreased, while the moderately eroded area increased by 368817 ha (22%) followed by severe erosion with 146552 ha (8.8%), and very severe erosion by 97067.6 ha (5.8%). Soil loss on sloping cropland increased with slope gradients. About 90% of the cropland was located on slopes less than 15°. Most of the increase in soil erosion on cropland was due to conversion of steep slopes to cropland and degradation of grassland and increased activities. Soil erosion was severe on grassland with a moderate or low grass cover and on dry land. Human activities, cultivation on steep slopes, and overgrazing of pastures were the main reasons for the increase in erosion severity.     

Optimal timing of carbon capture policies under learning-by-doing

Using a standard Hotelling model of resource exploitation, we determine the optimal energy consumption paths from three options: dirty coal, which is non-renewable and carbon-emitting; clean coal, which is also non-renewable but carbon-free thanks to carbon capture and storage (CCS); and solar energy, which is renewable and carbon-free. We assume that the atmospheric carbon stock cannot exceed an exogenously given ceiling. Taking into account learning-by-doing in CCS technology, we show the following results: (i) clean coal exploitation cannot begin before the outset of the carbon constrained phase and must stop strictly before the end of this phase; (ii) the energy price path can evolve non-monotonically over time; and (iii) when the solar cost is low enough, an unusual energy consumption sequence along with solar energy is interrupted for some time and replacement by clean coal may exist.     

四种岭南水果种植系统的能值、经济与土壤整合分析

综合运用能值、经济与土壤生态学分析方法,定量研究了番石榴(Psidium guajava Linn)、黄皮(Clausena lansium Skeels)、枇杷(Eriobotrya japonica Lindl)、葡萄柚(Citrus paradisi Maef)4种岭南水果种植系统的物质流、能最流和货币流,综合分析其自然资源基础、经济发展状况及可持续发展程度,并将土壤有机质的消耗纳入不可更新自然资源能值投人分析,为岭南水果业的可持续发展提供科学依据.能值分析表明,4个水果种植系统的可持续发展能力依次为:葡萄柚(0.94)>枇杷(0.15)>番石榴(0.14)>黄皮(0.10).土壤有机质分布与变化分析表明,4种水果种植系统的土壤有机质消耗量依次为:葡萄柚>黄皮>枇杷>番石榴.经济分析表明,4个水果种植系统的经济效益依次为:葡萄柚>番石榴>枇杷>黄皮.综合分析表明,番石榴、黄皮、枇杷三个系统的水果生产效率有待进一步提高;葡萄柚种植系统的水果生产效率、可持续发展能力和经济效益较高,但其对土壤有机质的消耗强度在四个系统中是最高的,这一点在水土流失严重的丘陵地区显然是不容忽视的.同时,如何降低系统在市场交换中的交换性资产流失是四个系统共同面对的问题.     

A novel participatory and remote-sensing-based approach to mapping annual land use change on forest frontiers in Laos,Myanmar, and Madagascar

Tropical forests are under pressure from both commercial and smallholder agriculture. Forest frontiers are seeing dynamic land use changes that frequently lead to land system regime shifts, posing challenges for the sustainability of entire local social-ecological systems. Monitoring highly dynamic land use change and detecting land system regime shifts is methodologically challenging due to trade-offs between spatial and temporal data resolution. We propose an innovative approach that combines analysis of very-high-resolution satellite imagery with participatory mapping based on workshops and field walks. Applying it in Laos, Myanmar, and Madagascar, we were able to collect annual land use information over several decades. Unlike conventional land use change mapping approaches, which assess only few points in time, our approach provides information at a temporal resolution that enables detection of gradual and abrupt land system regime shifts.     

Models of withdrawing renewable and non-renewable resources based on Odum's energy systems theory and Daly's quasi-sustainability principle

This paper presents a theoretical model of withdrawing resources based on Odum's energy systems diagrams. According to the theory of a general pulsing principle, withdrawing resources changes in time shifting from the initial phases of growth and maturity to the phases of descent and low energy restoration. A simulation was performed in order to hypothesize potential future trends of withdrawing renewable and non-renewable resources and to show some aspects of their sustainability–unsustainability, respectively. According to Odum's theory, after the rapid growth of the last century, our civilization is living in a climax transition phase and it is now approaching a descent phase. A “way down” will be necessary due to the exhaustion of non-renewable and to the limited use of renewable resources. An integrated “renew–non-renew” model was developed by Odum to show how a “business as usual” trend will bring us to a drastic transition to a world that uses scarce renewable resources. Nevertheless, a different choice is possible, based on Daly's concept of quasi-sustainability that can inspire a new model. The latter argued that the exploitation of a non-renewable resource must be paired with a compensating investment in a renewable substitute. Our model shows that we can use non-renewable resources better to considerably improve our capacity of capturing renewable resources in the future. We present this as a necessary condition to address a sustainable environmental policy.     

基于LandsatTM影像的武汉市热岛效应研究

采用定量遥感与GIS相结合的方法,利用武汉市2006年TM遥感影像,定量分析武汉市植被指数和热岛效应的关系和空间分布。在空间剖面上,研究了植被指数（NDVI）与地表辐射温度的关系并对植被指数（NDVI）与地表辐射温度进行了回归拟合。在此基础上,研究了武汉市热岛空间分布,解释了武汉市热岛等级空间分布的特点。研究结果表明：植被指数（NDVll与地表辐射温度存在着明显的负相关性;随着植被覆盖的变化,城市建设用地的地表辐射温度明显比其他土地类型敏感;城市中工业区和人口活动密集的商业区热岛强度高;水体和绿地对于分割城市热岛和缓解热岛效应有显著作用。该研究可为城市生态规划、用地合理布局等提供参考。     

森林生态系统生态资产核算的模式与方法

全球变化背景下.植被对CO2的减排作用得到了广泛关注.森林生态系统具有诸多功能,不同功能的货币化基准难以统一,是进行总体生态资产价值定量核算的制约要素.在资源、环境与生态经济原理指导下,分析相关方法评估生态系统生态资产的可行性,选择量化评估参数,并通过多种模式与方法进行估算乌鲁木齐城市2004年森林生态系统的生态资产.森林生态系统涵养水源类、生物多样性维持类、净化空气类、保护土壤类以及大气调节类生态资产分别为0.224 8×108元、10.608 8x108元、0.630 8×108元、0.2592×108元及12.9653×108元,乌鲁木齐市森林生态总资产为24.6889×108元.各类生态资产具有一定的时空差异性.城市森林生态系统生态资产估算模式及方法的研究具有重要的理论价值与现实意义.     

New life for old garbage Resource and energy recovery from solid wastes

National interest has been growing recently in the potential for systems of resource recovery from municipal solid wastes, particularly from those systems associated with energy recovery. A regional model for resource and energy recovery from municipal solid wastes is discussed briefly in this paper. Particular attention is given to the definition of profits and to the question of whether resource recycling could be truly regional in scope or would be limited to a few urban areas. An empirical application of the model to a resource recovery system in the Tennessee Valley Authority region is summarized.     

Land-use dynamics and flood risk in the hinterland of the Pearl River Delta: The case of Foshan City

This study examines land-use change and flood risk in the rapidly urbanizing Foshan City, a typical hinterland city in the Pearl River Delta. On the basis of classification of Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery, and further GIS-based spatial analysis, the paper determines that, between 1988–2003, massive land-use and -cover change (LUCC) occurred in this region. During the drastic land-use change, the loss of river area was much lower than that of other land-use types. In this region, appropriately 57.89% of water area was converted to the other land types; 46.65% was converted to new dyke-ponds, farmland, and built-up area, whereas the proportion of the other land types converted to water was only 42.97%. Nearly 15% of total water loss was in land for human use, which represents the degradation of the buffering capacity of the water systems to rainstorms. Further, driven by the pressure of urbanization, drastic changes in land use have resulted in significant alternation of hydrological conditions of the river systems, which, in turn, have potentially caused the higher flood risk in more populous urban areas in the sub-delta plain. Therefore, rational land-use policies should be implemented to give maximum returns while minimizing adverse impacts of flooding.     

青州市峱山经济发展区土地利用与空间布局

根据土地现状、绿地系统和空间布局等因素对城市生态环境具有的重要作用,对山东省青州市峱山经济发展区进行了用地分析和生态评价。依据新区空间发展的生态理念,深入研究了生态空间功能组团、总体功能布局。详细论述了峱山经济发展区的绿地生态系统规划,提出了以生态景观轴线连通各个绿地,形成生态功能突出、配置合理、通达性良好的绿地生态系统,以保障青州市峱山经济发展区生态和谐、健康的发展。     

Energy-economic theory and mathematical models for combining the systems of man and nature, case study: The urban region of Miami, Florida

This paper presents a study of the urban region of Miami, Fla. with consideration of energy flow and the relationship between energy theory and economics. Much of this work is based on the theories and work of Dr Howard T. Odum at the University of Florida. A theory of energy quality is presented which is an attempt to relate energies of different concentrations in their ability to do work. This theory allows comparison of the systems of man and nature. Another theory is proposed which seeks to describe the ability of a region to compete based on its flows of natural and fossil fuel energies.Economic, natural system, and energy data were compiled for the Miami urban region from 1950–1972. Cross-correlation of this data showed significant levels of correlation between the rate of change of fossil fuel use and the rates of change of population, budget, sales tax, income, building structure, and number of telephones. Calculation of several urban indicators for 1972 showed a fossil fuel energy density of 300 kcal/m²/day in the urbanized area, a per capita energy consumption of 53.8 × 10⁶ kcal/capita/year, a ratio of natural to fossil fuel energies of 0.25, a developed area of 260 miles² (673.4 km²), and a rate of development of 6.5 miles² (16.8 km²) per year.An overall model of Miami is presented with flows and storages quantified for 1972. Based on this model a simpler model was simulated on an analog computer. This model consisted of a system of first-order in time, non-linear differential equations which included fossil fuel energy flows, main economic flows, external price functions, building structure, natural energies, and population. This model was simulated for several linearly increasing future price functions and several sets of future energy functions.Natural energies within the region were calculated by determining the land areas associated with various ecosystem types. Estimating the productivities of these systems on a per area basis allowed calculation of total energy flows. The energies associated with winds, tides, waves, and fresh/salt water concentration gradients were also determined. It was found that the ratio of natural to fossil fuel energy changed from 1.77 in 1950 to 0.25 in 1972.     

Forecasting relative impacts of land use on anadromous fish habitat to guide conservation planning.

Land use change can adversely affect water quality and freshwater ecosystems, yet our ability to predict how systems will respond to different land uses, particularly rural-residential development, is limited by data availability and our understanding of biophysical thresholds. In this study, we use spatially explicit parcel-level data to examine the influence of land use (including urban, rural-residential, and vineyard) on salmon spawning substrate quality in tributaries of the Russian River in California. We develop a land use change model to forecast the probability of losses in high-quality spawning habitat and recommend priority areas for incentive-based land conservation efforts. Ordinal logistic regression results indicate that all three land use types were negatively associated with spawning substrate quality, with urban development having the largest marginal impact. For two reasons, however, forecasted rural-residential and vineyard development have much larger influences on decreasing spawning substrate quality relative to urban development. First, the land use change model estimates 10 times greater land use conversion to both rural-residential and vineyard compared to urban. Second, forecasted urban development is concentrated in the most developed watersheds, which already have poor spawning substrate quality, such that the marginal response to future urban development is less significant. To meet the goals of protecting salmonid spawning habitat and optimizing investments in salmon recovery, we suggest investing in watersheds where future rural-residential development and vineyards threaten high-quality fish habitat, rather than the most developed watersheds, where land values are higher.