A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Land-cover change within and around protected areas in a biodiversity hotspot

The landscape surrounding protected areas influences their ability to maintain ecosystem functions and achieve conservation goals. As anthropogenic intensification continues, it is important to monitor land-use and land-cover change in and around protected areas. We measure land-cover change surrounding protected areas in the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany Biodiversity hotspot from the 1980s to present. Using Landsat imagery, we classified land cover within and around each protected area. Agricultural land uses were increasing and often directly border protected area boundaries. Human settlements increased around every protected area, potentially increasing human activity along the edges of protected areas and threatening their ecological integrity. Urban expansion around protected areas varied but increased as much as 10%. Woody vegetation cover varied both within and around protected areas with possible evidence of deforestation and shrub encroachment throughout the hotspot. We recommend monitoring land cover across southeastern Africa to better understand regional trends in land-use impacts to protected areas.     

Empirical analysis on the influence of the Shaanxi fruit industry on regional food security

As part of its development policy to relieve rural poverty in west China, the Chinese government has introduced measures such as agricultural tax exemptions, agricultural subsidies, and scientific, technological and restructuring improvements to agriculture. Following these actions, farmers’ incomes have increased greatly and the economy in poor areas of west China has seen rapid improvements. However, agricultural restructuring, infrastructure construction and ecological restoration projects have reduced the area of land under arable farming, restricting opportunities for increasing total grain yield. Regional food security is therefore threatened and an imbalance between economic development and food security is created. Shaanxi is a representative province in west China where agricultural restructuring has resulted in large areas of arable land being converted into orchards that produce higher economic returns. This study randomly surveyed 1430 farm households in three counties in the apple-producing region of Shaanxi Province (Luochuan, Changwu and Baishui). The standard of living and household income of farmers in the fruit production areas were higher than in grain-producing areas, thus discouraging grain production. Land under agriculture in the counties studied comprised 59% orchards and 39% arable, with 2% under other uses. Per capita, 204.3 kg of grain was produced, 51% of that required for self-sufficiency. Other staple foods produced amounted to only 13.9% of that needed for self-sufficiency. As a result, nearly half of the grain needed by the community was purchased from outside, resulting in very poor regional food security. Clearly, fruit production in this region seriously affects regional food security. Coordination of relationships between rural economic development and regional food security is key for sustainable development of the regional agriculture and economy of west China.     

崇明岛新围垦区不同土地利用条件下的土壤呼吸研究

土地利用方式是影响温室气体减排的关键因子之一。新围垦土地因其土壤本底均一、土地利用历史简单短暂,使得评价短期土地利用对温室气体排放的影响成为可能。为此,在崇明东滩湿地新围垦区选取了本底均匀、利用历史简单的几种土地利用类型（旱田、水旱轮作农田、人工林带）,研究其土壤呼吸的变化及其与土壤环境间的关系,以期评价其各自的固碳和温室气体减排潜力。研究表明,2009年整个春季,土壤呼吸速率强度的顺序为水旱轮作[（0.30±0.08）mol.m-2.d-1]〉旱田[（0.18±0.04）mol.m-2.d-1]〉林带[（0.09±0.01）mol.m-2.d-1];春季各月份,水旱轮作田土壤呼吸速率变化波动较大,旱田较平稳,4、5月份最先达到日最高值,人工林带最为平稳,且始终具有较低的呼吸强度;旱田土壤呼吸速率均不能简单用土壤5 cm处温度及湿度进行解释,林带与水旱轮作田土壤呼吸速率与土壤5 cm处温度显著相关（P〈0.05）;整个春季,林带土壤呼吸与5 cm处温度及湿度均显著相关,其中与温度极显著相关（P=0.01）,水旱轮作田与旱田的土壤呼吸速率与两者均不相关。     

Land-use dynamics and flood risk in the hinterland of the Pearl River Delta: The case of Foshan City

This study examines land-use change and flood risk in the rapidly urbanizing Foshan City, a typical hinterland city in the Pearl River Delta. On the basis of classification of Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery, and further GIS-based spatial analysis, the paper determines that, between 1988–2003, massive land-use and -cover change (LUCC) occurred in this region. During the drastic land-use change, the loss of river area was much lower than that of other land-use types. In this region, appropriately 57.89% of water area was converted to the other land types; 46.65% was converted to new dyke-ponds, farmland, and built-up area, whereas the proportion of the other land types converted to water was only 42.97%. Nearly 15% of total water loss was in land for human use, which represents the degradation of the buffering capacity of the water systems to rainstorms. Further, driven by the pressure of urbanization, drastic changes in land use have resulted in significant alternation of hydrological conditions of the river systems, which, in turn, have potentially caused the higher flood risk in more populous urban areas in the sub-delta plain. Therefore, rational land-use policies should be implemented to give maximum returns while minimizing adverse impacts of flooding.     

Hierarchical Bayesian scaling of soil properties across urban, agricultural, and desert ecosystems.

Ecologists increasingly use plot-scale data to inform research and policy related to regional and global environmental change. For soil chemistry research, scaling from the plot to the region is especially difficult due to high spatial variability at all scales. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model of plot-scale soil nutrient pools to predict storage of soil organic carbon (oC), inorganic carbon (iC), total nitrogen (N), and available phosphorus (avP) in a 7962-km2 area including the Phoenix, Arizona, USA, metropolitan area and its desert and agricultural surroundings. The Bayesian approach was compared to a traditional approach that multiplied mean values for urban mesic residential, urban xeric residential, nonresidential urban, agricultural, and desert areas by the aerial coverage of each land-use type. Both approaches suggest that oC, N, and avP are correlated with each other and are higher (in g/m2) in mesic residential and agricultural areas than in deserts or xeric residential areas. In addition to traditional biophysical variables, cultural variables related to impervious surface cover, tree cover, and turfgrass cover were significant in regression models predicting the regional distribution of soil properties. We estimate that 1140 Gg of oC have accumulated in human-dominated soils of this region, but a significant portion of this new C has a very short mean residence time in mesic yards and agricultural soils. For N, we estimate that 130 Gg have accumulated in soils, which explains a significant portion of "missing N" observed in the regional N budget. Predictions for iC differed between the approaches because the Bayesian approach predicted iC as a function of elevation while the traditional approach employed only land use. We suggest that Bayesian scaling enables models that are flexible enough to accommodate the diverse factors controlling soil chemistry in desert, urban, and agricultural ecosystems and, thus, may represent an important tool for ecological scaling that spans land-use types. Urban planners and city managers attempting to reduce C emissions and N pollution should consider ways that landscape choices and impervious surface cover affect city-wide soil C, N, and P storage.     

The Trifinio Region: a case study of transboundary forest change in Central America

Strategic planning to increase forest cover in Central American transboundary areas of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor requires understanding land-cover and land-use change trends and drivers. We estimated forest cover change from remotely sensed land-cover and land-use classifications from 1986, 2001, and 2010, in the tri-national Trifinio Region, bordering El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Our analysis spanned subnational, national, regional, and protected border areas. We determined correlations with direct drivers of deforestation, developing a multilevel linear regression model. Higher population density significantly correlated with deforestation; coffee, agroforestry, and pasture replaced forests. The tri-national park retained forests compared to neighboring areas, but additionality requires more research. The literature on drivers suggests similar processes and factors in other tropical regions. Forest cover governance efficacy is highly variable. Results indicate relationship between governance and forest cover though more comprehensive understanding of this complex region is needed to determine their causality.     

Remote sensing of global change: growth in China's Jiangsu Province

SUMMARY

This paper examines how remote-sensing data and regional social and economic data can be used together to identify changes in land-use patterns in particular regions. Study of the spatiotemporal dynamics of remote-sensing data can identify trends in competing uses of land, water and other natural resources for agriculture, industrial development and urban settlements. When combined with information on trends in industrial production, population, agricultural production, pollutant releases, water usage and natural forest coverage, these data reveal patterns of anthropogenic disturbance that can provide early signals of problems in resource decline or land-use management. This study focuses on land-cover changes in southern Jiangsu Province of the People's Republic of China between 1976 and 1984. This region, to the west of Shanghai and to the south of the Yangtze River, experienced unprecedented economic growth after the end of the Cultural Revolution. Remote-sensing imagery reveals the rapid growth of urban centres, commensurate declines in surface water area, and changing patterns of agriculture. The observed changes cast doubt on the ability of the region to sustain such rapid and intense land-use conflicts over a long period.     

Land-use choices: the case of conservation reserve program (CRP) re-enrollment in Kansas,USA

Among the important alternatives for land conservation is the US Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) that celebrated its 30th anniversary in 2015. This paper explores how landowners decide on alternative land-use choices made available by the expiration of CRP contracts in Kansas. The study uses survey data and multinomial Logit models to predict land-use choices. Two models were tested. The first model does not incorporate variables concerning farmer perceptions and attitudes about land-use choices, while the second model does. The results show that CRP re-enrollment depends on factors, such as years of experience in cropping and percent of cropland irrigated. However, when perception variables are added, the models become more robust in explaining other land choice alternatives. The results suggest that as the perception of unfairness of more inflexible environmental policy rises, these farmers may be more likely to re-enroll their marginal land in the CRP program.     

Geographic shifts in the highland cooking banana (Musa spp., group AAA-EA) production in Uganda

Summary

Between 1970 and 1990 Uganda witnessed the decline of the highland cooking banana from traditional growing areas in the central region, coupled with crop expansion in the country's southwest. Apprehension that the factors leading to loss of sustainability in the central region may be replayed in extant production areas has raised concern about the future of the cooking banana in Uganda. Consequently, a multi-disciplinary study was conducted at nine central and six southwestern sites to document shifts in cooking banana production and to elucidate the causes behind these shifts.

Cooking banana production in central Uganda sites fell from 18% of total food crop and 7% of total cash crop production in the 1970s to 4% and 2%, respectively, in the 1990s. Farmers identified reduced labour availability and management, increasing pest pressure and declining soil nutrient status as the major causes of decline. On-farm verification confirmed farmers' observations: weevil levels were the highest yet found in Uganda, while foliar samples indicated deficiencies in magnesium, nitrogen, and potassium. Soil nutrient deficiencies, however, appear to be a direct outcome ofreduced management rather than ‘soil exhaustion’ as postulated by farmers.

In southwestern Uganda, the importance of the cooking banana as a cash crop has quadrupled since 1970. Banana first penetrated the region because of its ease of production and stability of yield. High yields attracted traders and urban market demand drove further crop expansion. With current market incentives, banana management standards have been high. Under current levels of management, it is unlikely that farmers in southwestern Uganda will experience a similar process of decline as that which occurred in the central region. However, concern remains aboqt lack of replenishment of nutrients leaving the farm in the form of fruits sold for market, a nutrient loss which may eventually lead to non-sustainability of the cropping system.     

A regression tree-based method for integrating land-cover and land-use data collected at multiple scales

As data sets of multiple types and scales proliferate, it will be increasingly important to be able to flexibly combine them in ways that retain relevant information. A case in point is Amazonia, a large, data-poor region where most whole-basin data sets are limited to understanding land cover interpreted through a variety of remote sensing techniques and sensors. A growing body of work, however, indicates that the future state of much of Amazonia depends on the land use to which converted areas are put, but land use in the tropics is difficult to assess from remotely sensed data alone. An earlier paper developed new snapshots of agricultural land use in this region using a statistical fusion of satellite data and agricultural census data, an underutilized ancillary data source available across Amazonia. The creation of these land-use maps, which have the spatial detail of a satellite image and the attribute information of an agricultural census, required the development of a new statistical technique for merging data sets at different scales and of fundamentally different data types. Here we describe and assess this nonlinear technique, which reinterprets existing land cover classifications by determining what categories are most highly related to the polygon land-use data across the study area. Although developed for this region, the technique appears to hold broad promise for the systematic fusion of multiple data sets that are closely related but of different origins. The figures in the printed version of this article appear in black and white. Color figures are available from the author upon request.     

Indirect land use change from ethanol production: the case of sugarcane expansion at the farm level on the Brazilian Cerrado

The expansion of sugarcane production in the Brazilian Cerrado has resulted in indirect land use change (ILUC), occurring when displaced land uses in one location are reallocated to another. Studies, however, usually identify ILUC at the regional or national level far from the original area of a displaced land use. This study examines the occurrence of ILUC due to sugarcane expansion for ethanol production at the farm level in the Brazilian Cerrado. It fills a gap in the literature by examining socioeconomic, policy and farm-level factors that influence ILUC at the farm level in the Brazilian Cerrado using face-to-face enumerated surveys. Results indicate that ILUC did occur at the farm (producer) scale and farmers who undertook ILUC intensified agricultural production on their farms. Results inform policymakers on how the intensification of agricultural practices may make it potentially difficult to keep protected lands out of production, reducing the environmental benefits from sugarcane-based biofuel production.     

Assessing effects of land use on landscape connectivity: loss and fragmentation of western U.S. forests

Effects of land-use change on the conservation of biodiversity have become a concern to conservation scientists and land managers, who have identified loss and fragmentation of natural areas as a high-priority issue. Despite urgent calls to inform national, regional, and state planning efforts, there remains a critical need to develop practical approaches to identify where important lands are for landscape connectivity (i.e., linkages), where land use constrains connectivity, and which linkages are most important to maintain network-wide connectivity extents. Our overall goal in this paper was to develop an approach that provides comprehensive, quantitative estimates of the effects of land-use change on landscape connectivity and illustrate its use on a broad, regional expanse of the western United States. We quantified loss of habitat and landscape connectivity for western forested systems due to land uses associated with residential development, roads, and highway traffic. We examined how these land-use changes likely increase the resistance to movement of forest species in non-forested land cover types and, therefore, reduce the connectivity among forested habitat patches. To do so, we applied a graph-theoretic approach that incorporates ecological aspects within a geographic representation of a network. We found that roughly one-quarter of the forested lands in the western United States were integral to a network of forested patches, though the lands outside of patches remain critical for habitat and overall connectivity. Using remotely sensed land cover data (ca. 2000), we found 1.7 million km2 of forested lands. We estimate that land uses associated with residential development, roads, and highway traffic have caused roughly a 4.5% loss in area (20 000 km2) of these forested patches, and continued expansion of residential land will likely reduce forested patches by another 1.2% by 2030. We also identify linkages among forest patches that are critical for landscape connectivity. Our approach can be readily modified to examine connectivity for other habitats/ecological systems and for other geographic areas, as well as to address more specific requirements for particular conservation planning applications.     

Socioeconomic determinants of long-term cropland fallowing: smallholders in north-western Uganda

SUMMARY

Long-term cropland fallowing decisions of farmers in the West Nile Province of Uganda were studied. Tabular and regression methods are used to examine the relationship between farm and household factors and seasons of net fallowing. The results show that farmers plan to decrease the rate of fallowing in the immediate future. Serious (but undocumented) problems in maintaining cropland productivity could result. Population density had a large and negative effect on net fallowing (seasons of fallowing less seasons of crops), decreasing from the current average of ?0.6 seasons to ?2.21 seasons for a doubling of population. This 268% decrease in the use of fallowing could occur in as few as 13.5 years, assuming a 3% annual population growth rate. Farms larger in size, but with no increase in per capita cropland availability, had a higher rate of net fallowing. Cashcrop production was negatively associated with net fallowing, whilst farmer age had a positive association.

The results have implications for both agricultural policy and guidance for further research on cropland fallowing. Increased cash-cropping should not be recommended unless the full economic costs of using land resources are evaluated. Much of the increased area for cash-crop production would come from fallowed land, decreasing the rate of fallowing and thus increasing the potential for soil degradation. Fallowing has long been used in the area to maintain cropland productivity. Building upon farmers current practices and improving fallowing through the use of green manures and agroforestry could prove to be more economical than the use of mineral fertilizers. Investigating why farms larger in size and those with older head-of-households were able to use fallowing more effectively may provide key information for the development of more productive fallowing technologies.     

Is aridity restricting deforestation and land uses in the South American Dry Chaco?

In this paper, we explored how aridity influences the regional deforestation and land-use patterns (i.e. crops/pastures) in South American Dry Chaco. To do this, we contrasted land use during last decade (2001–2012) with a spatially explicit aridity index, which we complemented with a crop water balance model. Land-use classifications were performed by considering the temporal variability of NDVI from MODIS satellites, showing that 40 and 60% of deforested land was assigned to crops and pastures, respectively. Results indicate that although the regional deforestation pattern was not associated with the aridity gradient, with drier areas similarly deforested as wetter areas, contrasting differences were observed in the use of this land, with crops mostly located (90%) in wetter areas and pastures evenly distributed across the whole aridity gradient. This research highlighted the strong effect of water limitations on the land-use option after deforestation and may help to set the basis for future land-use planning policies.     

On the gains of committing to inefficiency: Corruption,deforestation and low land productivity in Latin America

We present a new explanation and empirical evidence showing that rural subsidies to large farmers tend to be associated with low land productivity and excessive deforestation. We develop a lobbying model where wealthy farmers trade bribes or political contributions to government politicians in exchange for subsidies; farmers are able to tilt the terms of the bargaining game with policy makers in their favor by pre-committing to an inefficient choice of semi-fixed inputs. Government proneness to accept political contributions or bribes and its willingness to provide subsidies cause farmers to adopt inefficient modes of production as a mechanism to capture such subsidies. Our predictions are consistent with stylized facts on land use in Latin America, and suggest that subsidy schemes have been counterproductive—distorting and constraining development, and triggering excessive depletion of natural resources. We validate some of the predictions of the model through econometric analyses using a new data set for nine countries in Latin America.     

Developing indicators for assessing land-use sustainability in a tropical agro-ecosystem: The case of Sakaekrang watershed,Thailand

While the concept of sustainable land management is now widely accepted, there remains considerable scope for developing location-specific land-use indicators for sustainability evaluation. A study was conducted to investigate the indicators of land-use sustainability in the context of tropical agro-ecosystems using the case of Sakaekrang watershed, Thailand. The biophysical data were generated from Geographic Information Systems (GIs) and the socioeconomic data were collected through a field survey. In the light of sustainable land management objectives, a total of 32 criteria were considered in the analysis to determine land-use sustainability and identify indicators that best explain the sustainability level. About one quarter of the agricultural area in the watershed meets the sustainability threshold, indicating a substantial unstable area in the watershed. Among 11 indicators that showed a significant relationship with the computed land-use sustainability, land quality, source of farm income, and evapo transpiration were the most important.     

Satellite detection of bird communities in tropical countryside.

The future of biodiversity hinges partly on realizing the potentially high conservation value of human-dominated countryside. The characteristics of the countryside that promote biodiversity preservation remain poorly understood, however, particularly at the fine scales at which individual farmers tend to make land use decisions. To address this problem, we explored the use of a rapid remote sensing method for estimating bird community composition in tropical countryside, using a two-step process. First, we asked how fine-grained variation in land cover affected community composition. Second, we determined whether the observed changes in community composition correlated with three easily accessible remote sensing metrics (wetness, greenness, and brightness), derived from performing a tasseled-cap transformation on a Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus image. As a comparison, we also examined whether the most commonly used remote sensing indicator in ecology, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), correlated with community composition. We worked within an agricultural landscape in southern Costa Rica, where the land comprised a complex and highly heterogeneous mosaic of remnant native vegetation, pasture, coffee cultivation, and other crops. In this region, we selected 12 study sites (each < 60 ha) that encompassed the range of available land cover possibilities in the countryside. Within each site, we surveyed bird communities within all major land cover types, and we conducted detailed field mapping of land cover. We found that the number of forest-affiliated species increased with forest cover and decreased with residential area across sites. Conversely, the number of agriculture-affiliated species using forest increased with land area devoted to agricultural and residential uses. Interestingly, we found that the wetness and brightness metrics predicted the number of forest- and agriculture-affiliated species within a site as well as did detailed field-generated maps of land cover. In contrast, NDVI and the closely correlated greenness metric did not correlate with land cover or with bird communities. Our study shows the strong potential of the tasseled-cap transformation as a tool for assessing the conservation value of countryside for biodiversity.     

On the gains of committing to inefficiency: Corruption, deforestation and low land productivity in Latin America

We present a new explanation and empirical evidence showing that rural subsidies to large farmers tend to be associated with low land productivity and excessive deforestation. We develop a lobbying model where wealthy farmers trade bribes or political contributions to government politicians in exchange for subsidies; farmers are able to tilt the terms of the bargaining game with policy makers in their favor by pre-committing to an inefficient choice of semi-fixed inputs. Government proneness to accept political contributions or bribes and its willingness to provide subsidies cause farmers to adopt inefficient modes of production as a mechanism to capture such subsidies. Our predictions are consistent with stylized facts on land use in Latin America, and suggest that subsidy schemes have been counterproductive—distorting and constraining development, and triggering excessive depletion of natural resources. We validate some of the predictions of the model through econometric analyses using a new data set for nine countries in Latin America.     

North East Scotland River Catchment Nitrate Loading in Relation to Agricultural Intensity

Modern agricultural practices have been strongly linked with increased NO₃-N loadings in surface waters. Nitrate leaching increases as land use progresses from forest and moorland through grassland, to arable agriculture. There are, within the UK, few studies on a regional scale capable of displaying a relationship between land cover (agricultural intensity) and water quality. This relationship can be investigated using computer manipulation of spatial geographic information together with conventional river and agricultural census data.

Simple regression analysis against primary land cover suggests that agriculture is reponsible for annual losses of nitrate in North East Scotland river catchments. Further multi-linear regression analysis, using the GIS data and agricultural census returns indicate that most of the outstanding variation can be accounted for if the agricultural variable is related to agricultural practice, such as spring, winter and grass cropping.