Factor analysis and policy simulation of domestic waste classification behavior based on a multiagent study—Taking Shanghai's garbage classification as an example

Sorting garbage and recycling renewable resources is a new and effective means to address the “garbage siege.” To examine residents' classification behaviors and scientifically assess effects of policies, this study comprehensively analyzes factors influencing residents' classification behavior at the government, resident and societal dimensions and construct multiagent decision-making functions and an interaction model by Anylogic platform. The empirical results show publicity and education have the most significant impacts on classification behavior followed by classification infrastructure and subjective norms. The simulation results show publicity and education, charging policies and government subsidies significantly transform unclassified residents into classified residents and all three approaches double rates of classification behavior. From perspectives of multisubject interaction and multicenter governance, this study analyzes motivations behind classification behavior from a micro level and quantifies effects of policies from a macro level, providing a common research method and paradigm that can be used in behavior research and policy formulation.     

Integrating adaptation to climate change in regional plans and programmes: The role of strategic environmental assessment

Climate changes exert negative impacts on the global environments and the human beings. They imply more frequent extreme weather events, which are responsible of sea level rise, coastal erosion, flooding, droughts, and desertification. Mitigation and adaptation represent intertwined strategies for counteracting climate changes. Mitigation is associated to the lessening of the causes of climate changes and includes actions reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation is a proactive concept addressing how humans can adapt and benefit from climate change. The mainstreaming and integration of adaptation to climate change into routine practice can be favored by Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of regional policies, plans and programmes. In this study, we aim at scrutinizing a set of SEA reports of regional plans and programmes adopted in Sardinia (Italy), to investigate if -and to what extent- adaptation to climate change has characterized planning and programming tools. Evidence shows that the integration of adaptation-driven issues into regional planning is still in its infancy but presents the signs of promising expansion.     

Climate Change and Climate Variability: Adaptations to Reduce Adverse Health Impacts

Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards.     

Constructing “not Implausible” Climate and Economic Scenarios for Egypt

A space of “not-implausible” scenarios for Egypt's future under climate change is defined along two dimensions. One depicts representative climate change and climate variability scenarios that span the realm of possibility. Some would not be very threatening. Others portend dramatic reductions in average flows into Lake Nassar and associated increases in the likelihood of year to year shortfalls below critical coping thresholds; these would be extremely troublesome, especially if they were cast in the context of increased political instability across the entire Nile Basin. Still others depict futures along which relatively routine and relatively inexpensive adaptation might be anticipated. The ability to adapt to change and to cope with more severe extremes would, however, be linked inexorably to the second set of social–political–economic scenarios. The second dimension, defined as “anthropogenic” social/economic/political scenarios describe the holistic environment within which the determinants of adaptive capacity for water management, agriculture, and coastal zone management must be assessed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Adaptation Scenarios of Agriculture in Poland to Future Climate Changes

This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.     

Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change.     

The Biodiversity Crisis and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australia's Forests

If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.     

Assessment of transport performance index for urban transport development strategies — Incorporating residents' preferences

The performance of urban transport depends on a variety of factors related to metropolitan structure; in particular, the patterns of commuting, roads and public transport (PT) systems. To evaluate urban transport planning efforts, there is a need for a metric expressing the aggregate performance of the city's transport systems which should relate to residents' preferences. The existing metrics have typically focused on a measure to express the proximity of job locations to residences. A Transport Performance Index (TPI) is proposed in which the total cost of transportation system (operational and environmental costs) is divided by willingness to pay (WTP) for transport plus the willingness to accept (WTA) the environmental effects on residents. Transport operational as well as the environmental costs are derived from a simulation of all transport systems, to particular designs of spatial development. Willingness to pay for transport and willingness to accept the environmental effects are derived from surveys among residents. Simulations were modelled of Surabaya's spatial structure and public transport expansion. The results indicate that the current TPI is high, which will double by 2030. With a hypothetical polycentric city structure and adjusted job housing balance, a lower index occurs because of the improvements in urban transport performance. A low index means that the residents obtain much benefit from the alternative proposed. This illustrates the importance of residents' preferences in urban spatial planning in order to achieve efficient urban transport. Applying the index suggests that city authorities should provide fair and equitable public transport systems for suburban residents in the effort to control the phenomenon of urban sprawl. This index is certainly a good tool and prospective benchmark for measuring sustainability in relation to urban development.     

Sharing the geo-Referenced Results of Climate Change Impact Research

The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) has implemented an Internet Map Server (IMS) at the PARC web site (www.parc.ca) to 1) disseminate the geo-referenced results of PARC sponsored research on climate change impacts and adaptation, and 2) address data, information and knowledge management within the PARC network of researchers and partners. PARC facilitates interdisciplinary research on adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the Canadian Prairie Provinces. The web site is intended as a platform for sharing information and encouraging discussion of climate change impacts and adaptation. The IMS enables scientists and stakeholders to apply simple climate change scenarios to geo-referenced biophysical and social data, and dynamically create maps that display the geographic distribution of potential impacts of climate change. With a limited capacity for spatial analysis, most geo-processing and the climate impact modeling is done offline within a GIS environment. The IMS will serve the output from climate impact models, such that the model results can be customized by the web site user and be most readily applied to the planning and analysis of adaptation strategies.     

A General Equilibrium Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Swiss Winter Tourism with Adaptation

Winter alpine tourism has been repeatedly identified as one of the economic sectors most at risk from climate change in Switzerland. However, all of the costs that have been estimated so far for the Swiss tourism sector are, to some extent, misleading as they do not, or only partially, incorporate adaptation possibilities and general equilibrium effects. We attempt to fill this gap using a computable general equilibrium model that is specifically designed for the purposes of this research. Our modeling efforts first consist in creating a tourism sector with a part of it being dependent on snow. We also carefully model the snowmaking technology. Using climate change scenarios on future snow cover, we analyze their impacts on the Swiss ski industry. We find welfare effects for the Swiss economy ranging from − 23 to 113 million CHF in 2050. This range arises from the use of various assumptions concerning adaptation possibilities. We also show that geographical substitutions between international ski destinations have large positive effects for Switzerland. From a more general perspective, our results exemplify the risks of estimating the consequences of climate change based only on domestic impacts of climate change with no adaptation being implemented.

     

Asymmetric impacts of public service “transportation” on the environmental pollution in China

The quality of public service transportation highly depends on the country's context, including investment, infrastructure development, and technology-based innovation in the transport sector. The core innovation of the present study is the asymmetric impacts of the airline, railway, waterway, and road on environmental pollution in China. This research analyzed and highlighted the most susceptible transportation system in China, using the newly developed Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model from 1985 to 2018. The results of the NARDL are positive shock and negative shock between CO₂ emission and four mode-specific transportation development that led to an increase in environmental cost in the short run. The study findings divulged that airline, road, and waterway operational mileage per capita of both positive and negative transportation shocks had worsened the environmental pollution in China. On the other hand, the railway is successfully improving environmental quality in China. In order to enforce policies, local authorities should be supportive of urban public services (e.g., buses and metro) and improve public transportation services. Simultaneously, policymakers may also introduce new creative ideas for a sharing economy, such as shared bicycles and automobiles to reduce the use of private vehicles. These insights of the study could assist policymakers to improve policies for the four specific modes of transportation to better adapt to climate change and associated environmental stressors in China.     

Exploring the effect of air pollution on settlement intentions from migrants: Evidence from China

Based on the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) from 2015 to 2017, this paper uses IV-Probit model to investigate the effects of air pollution on migrants' settlement intentions in China. The results show that: First, air pollution has a significant and negative effect on intentions in settling down of the migrants. Specifically, when the concentration of PM_2.5 increases by 1 μg/m³, the probability of migrants settling down in the city which they have moved to for work or business will significantly decrease by 1.89%. Second, there is heterogeneity in the effects of air pollution on migrants' settlement intentions. In detail, the sensitivity to air pollution is higher among female groups, who have higher education levels and prefer better air quality in the living place to settle down, and there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between age and settlement intentions. On the one hand, the conclusion of this paper enriches the relevant theoretical achievements of air pollution and migration. On the other hand, it also has a high reference value for developing more reasonable policies related to urban environmental governance and labor mobility.     

Meta-Modeling to Assess the Possible Future of Paris Agreement

In the meta-modeling approach, one builds a numerically tractable dynamic optimization or game model in which the parameters are identified through statistical emulation of a detailed large scale numerical simulation model. In this paper, we show how this approach can be used to assess the economic impacts of possible climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement. One indicates why it is appropriate to assume that an international carbon market, with emission rights given to different groups of countries will exist. One discusses the approach to evaluate correctly abatement costs and welfare losses incurred by different groups of countries when implementing climate policies. Finally, using a recently proposed meta-model of game with a coupled constraint on a cumulative CO₂ emissions budget, we assess several new scenarios for possible fair burden sharing in climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement.     

Is Globalization Detrimental to CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Emissions in Japan? New Threshold Analysis

Using annual data from 1970 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of globalization on CO₂ emissions in Japan while accounting for economic growth and energy consumption as potential determinants of carbon emissions. The structural breaks and asymmetries arising due to policy shifts require attention, and hence, an asymmetric threshold version of the ARDL model is utilized. The results show the presence of threshold asymmetric cointegration between variables. Threshold-based positive and negative shocks arising from globalization increase carbon emissions, while the impact of the latter is more profound. Energy consumption (economic growth) also has a significant positive effect on carbon emissions. Globalization, economic growth, and energy consumption significantly increase carbon emissions in the short run. We suggest that policy makers in Japan consider globalization and energy consumption as policy tools in formulating their policies regarding protecting sustainable environmental quality in the long run. Otherwise, the Japanese economy may continue to face environmental consequences such as undesirable climate change and massive warming at the micro and macro levels as a result of potential shocks arising from globalization and energy consumption.     

The Benefits of Cooperation Under Uncertainty: the Case of Climate Change

This article presents an analysis of the behaviour of countries defining their climate policies in an uncertain context. The analysis is made using the S-CWS model, a stochastic version of an integrated assessment growth model. The model includes a stochastic definition of the climate sensitivity parameter. We show that the impact of uncertainty on policy design critically depends on the shape of the damage function. We also examine the benefits of cooperation in the context of uncertainty: We highlight the existence of an additional benefit of cooperation, namely risk reduction.     

Adaptation to Climatic Variability and Change: Asian Perspectives on Agriculture and Food Security

The impacts of climate change on potential rice production in Asia are reviewed in the light of the adaptation to climatic variability and change. Collaborative studies carried out by IRRI and US-EPA reported that using process-based crop simulation models increasing temperature may decrease rice potential yield up to 7.4% per degree increment of temperature. When climate scenarios predicted by GCMs were applied it was demonstrated that rice production in Asia may decline by 3.8% under the climates of the next century. Moreover, changes in rainfall pattern and distribution were also found suggesting the possible shift of agricultural lands in the region. The studies however have not taken the impacts of climatic variability into account, which often produce extreme events like that caused by monsoons and El Niño. Shifts in rice-growing areas are likely to be constrained by land-use changes occurring for other developmental reasons, which may force greater cultivation of marginal lands and further deforestation. This should be taken into account and lead to more integrated assessment, especially in developing countries where land-use change is more a top-down policy rather than farmers' decision. A key question is: To what extent will improving the ability of societies to cope with current climatic variability through changing design of agricultural systems and practices help the same societies cope with the likely changes in climate?     

Integrating Impacts into Adaptation Measures

A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability. The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described.The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies.The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons learned into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change.Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change.The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries.Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.     

The influence of the methods of measuring odours nuisance on the quality of life

Quality of life in urban space has become an increasingly common problem arising from cooperation between various stakeholders, especially in the context of increasing odour nuisance. That is why it is extremely important to know and shape the expectations and perceptions of residents regarding quality of life by accepting the place of residence, especially in the context of the development of cities and urban areas.The analysis of the previous research has revealed a research gap that results from the imperfections of existing odour measurement methods and the lack of an objective measurement methodology that would allow for objectification of the subjective feelings of people to the extent of perception of unpleasant odours.The purpose of this article is to verify the hypothesis about the possibility of objectifying the assessment of odour nuisance based on the comparison of quantitative research results based on the opinions of residents and sensory tests. The specific objective is to verify residents' assessments of odour nuisance by an expert team and identify a gap in those assessments.The analysis of discrepancies gives the opportunity to identify the imperfections of various research methods and look for ways to improve them. The analysis of compliance of results, on the other hand, gives the opportunity to objectify measurements and build a methodology that may be used for the purpose of assessing odour nuisance by various stakeholders.Systematic measurement of odours in a public space may serve the basis for resolving local conflicts, creating maps of odour nuisance, assessing the attractiveness of places to live, work, spending free time and tourist value, as well as conscious actions of public authorities in shaping local policies in a specific area.     

Consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation in EIA practice — Perspectives of actors in Austria and Germany

Current political discussions and developments indicate the importance and urgency of incorporating climate change considerations into EIA processes. The recent revision of the EU Directive 2014/52/EU on Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) requires changes in the EIA practice of the EU member states. This paper investigates the extent to which the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) can contribute to an early consideration of climate change consequences in planning processes. In particular the roles of different actors in order to incorporate climate change impacts and adaptation into project planning subject to EIA at the appropriate levels are a core topic. Semi-structured expert interviews were carried out with representatives of the main infrastructure companies and institutions responsible in these sectors in Austria, which have to carry out EIA regularly. In a second step expert interviews were conducted with EIA assessors and EIA authorities in Austria and Germany, in order to examine the extent to which climate-based changes are already considered in EIA processes. This paper aims to discuss the different perspectives in the current EIA practice with regard to integrating climate change impacts as well as barriers and solutions identified by the groups of actors involved, namely project developers, environmental competent authorities and consultants (EIA assessors/practitioners). The interviews show that different groups of actors consider the topic to different degrees. Downscaling of climate change scenarios is in this context both, a critical issue with regards to availability of data and costs. Furthermore, assistance for the interpretation of relevant impacts, to be deducted from climate change scenarios, on the specific environmental issues in the area is needed. The main barriers identified by the EIA experts therefore include a lack of data as well as general uncertainty as to how far climate change should be considered in the process without reliable data but in the presence of knowledge about possible consequences at an abstract level. A joint strategy on how to cope with uncertain prognoses about main impacts on environmental issues for areas without reliable data requires a discussion and cooperation between EIA consultants and environmental authorities.     

Mind the gap in SEA: An institutional perspective on why assessment of synergies amongst climate change mitigation, adaptation and other policy areas are missing

This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations as to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural-cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in a more systematic and integrated manner.