A coupled carbon-water-energy-vegetation model to assess responses of temperate forest ecosystems to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2. Part I. Model concept

Predictions of forest ecosystem response to changes in climate and atmospheric CO(2) concentration require hierarchically structured process models. Present forest simulation models have conceptual limitations that restrict their application to climate-change studies. A major drawback of forest succession models is that they often lack physiological details in the simulation of annual tree growth. On the other hand, aggregated ecosystem models assume spatially homogeneous forests, and do not account for successional changes in forest composition and canopy structure. The concept of a new coupled carbon-water-energy-forest vegetation model is presented which attempts to overcome the main limitations of existing models by implementing a modern view of ecological hierarchy and a robust approach for scaling ecological processes in space and time.     

Reconnecting Cities to the Biosphere: Stewardship of Green Infrastructure and Urban Ecosystem Services

Within-city green infrastructure can offer opportunities and new contexts for people to become stewards of ecosystem services. We analyze cities as social–ecological systems, synthesize the literature, and provide examples from more than 15 years of research in the Stockholm urban region, Sweden. The social–ecological approach spans from investigating ecosystem properties to the social frameworks and personal values that drive and shape human interactions with nature. Key findings demonstrate that urban ecosystem services are generated by social–ecological systems and that local stewards are critically important. However, land-use planning and management seldom account for their role in the generation of urban ecosystem services. While the small scale patchwork of land uses in cities stimulates intense interactions across borders much focus is still on individual patches. The results highlight the importance and complexity of stewardship of urban biodiversity and ecosystem services and of the planning and governance of urban green infrastructure.     

Impacts of atmospheric pollution on the plant communities of British acid grasslands

Air pollutants are recognised as important agents of ecosystem change but few studies consider the effects of multiple pollutants and their interactions. Here we use ordination, constrained cluster analysis and indicator value analyses to identify potential environmental controls on species composition, ecological groupings and indicator species in a gradient study of UK acid grasslands. The community composition of these grasslands is related to climate, grazing, ozone exposure and nitrogen deposition, with evidence for an interaction between the ecological impacts of base cation and nitrogen deposition. Ozone is a key agent in species compositional change but is not associated with a reduction in species richness or diversity indices, showing the subtly different drivers on these two aspects of ecosystem degradation. Our results demonstrate the effects of multiple interacting pollutants, which may collectively have a greater impact than any individual agent.     

Pesticide effects on freshwater zooplankton: an ecological perspective

The effects of pesticides on zooplankton are reviewed and their ecological significance is discussed. Toxicity is shown to vary depending on animal species, genotype, life stage, and size at birth. Natural stresses such as food shortage, oxygen depletion and odors of potential predators can also affect toxicity. Populations in the growth phase are vulnerable to pesticides but have the potential to recover rapidly from the damage. Pesticides may affect the population dynamics by controlling individual survival and reproduction, and by altering the sex ratio. Furthermore, toxic chemicals may control predation risk by changing swimming behavior and body morphology, and this in turn influences the population dynamics. Many zooplankton display morphological and behavioral responses to predators when exposed to their odor-producing chemicals. However, pesticides induce a maladaptive response to predator odor, and this poses an ecological risk. The following patterns are recognized as effects of pesticides at the community and ecosystem levels: (1) induction of dominance by small species; (2) an increase of species richness and diversity; and (3) elongation of the food chain and reduction of energy transfer efficiency from primary producers to top predators.     

Is an assessment factor of 10 appropriate to account for the variation in chemical toxicity to freshwater ectotherms under different thermal conditions?

Ecotoxicity tests are often conducted following standard methods, and thus carried out at a fixed water temperature under controlled laboratory conditions. Yet, toxicity of a chemical contaminant may vary in a temperature-dependent manner, depending on the physiology of the test organism and physicochemical properties of the chemical. Although an assessment factor of 10 (AF10) is commonly adopted to account for variability in toxicity data related to temperature in the development of water quality guidelines and/or ecological risk assessment, no one has ever rigorously assessed the appropriateness of AF10 to account for potential variation in temperature-dependent chemical toxicity to aquatic organisms. This study, therefore, aims to address this issue through a meta-analysis by comparing median lethal concentration data for nine chemicals (cadmium, copper, nickel, lead, silver, zinc, arsenic, selenium and DDT) on a range of freshwater ectothermic animal species at different temperatures, and to assess whether AF10 is under- or over-protective for tropical and temperate freshwater ecosystems. Our results reveal varying extents of interaction between temperature and different chemicals on organisms and the complexity of these interactions. Applying AF10 sufficiently protects 90 % of the animal species tested over a range of temperatures for cadmium, copper, nickel, silver, zinc and DDT in the tropics, but it is insufficient to adequately encompass a larger temperature variation for most studied chemicals in temperate regions. It is therefore important to set specific AFs for different climatic zones in order to achieve the desired level of ecosystem protection.     

Chronic effects of vapour phase di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP) on six plant species

A fumigation experiment was performed in which six plant species representing the European flora were exposed to a range of DBP concentrations. Controlled amounts of DBP-saturated air were injected into the ingoing air-streams of plant fumigation chambers, maintaining constant concentrations there for a period of up to 76 days. The target concentrations were a control, 0.8, 1.5, 3.5, and 10.0 microg m(-3). The variation in sensitivity between plant species to atmospheric DBP was quantified on the basis of whole plant biomass in order to derive no-observed-effect-concentrations (NOECs). Significant dose-response relationships, based on realised concentrations, were thus derived using non-linear regression, resulting in NOECs of 0.51 microg m(-3) for Trifolium repens, 0.96 microg m(-3) for Brassica campestris, 1.87 microg m(-3) for Phaseolus vulgaris and 2.21 microg m(-3) for Plantago major. A significant effect was also observed for Holcus lanatus at 12.4 microg m(-3) DBP, but due to the variation at lower levels of DBP exposure, no dose-response relationship could be derived. No significant effect on growth of current year needles in Picea abies was observed, even at the highest level of DBP, 13.7 microg m(-3). Based on statistical extrapolation according to Aldenberg and Slob [Ecotox. Environ. Safety, 25 (1993) 48], an overall predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) for the plant-atmosphere compartment of 0.33 microg m(-3) DBP was calculated. The PNEC was calculated using the mean and standard deviation of the NOEC for four of the tested species and an extrapolation factor. In addition to changes in leaf colour, leaf crinkling and growth reduction, a number of not quantified observations are described, indicating that DBP affects the physiology as well as the morphology of these species.     

Micro-evolution due to pollution: possible consequences for ecosystem responses to toxic stress

Polluting events can change community structure and ecosystem functioning. Selection of genetically inherited tolerance on exposed populations, here referred as micro-evolution due to pollution, has been recognized as one of the causes of these changes. However, there is a gap between studies addressing this process and those assessing effects at higher levels of biological organization. In this review we attempt to address these evolutionary considerations into the ecological risk assessment (ERA) of polluting events and to trigger the discussion about the consequences of this process for the ecosystem response to toxic stress. We provide clear evidence that pollution drives micro-evolutionary processes in several species. When this process occurs, populations inhabiting environments that become polluted may persist. However, due to the existence of ecological costs derived from the loss of genetic variability, negative pleiotropy with fitness traits and/or from physiological alterations, micro-evolution due to pollution may alter different properties of the affected populations. Despite the existence of empirical evidence showing that safety margins currently applied in the ERA process may account for pollution-induced genetic changes in tolerance, information regarding long-term ecological consequences at higher levels of biological organization due to ecological costs is not explicitly considered in these procedures. In relation to this, we present four testable hypotheses considering that micro-evolution due to pollution acts upon the variability of functional response traits of the exposed populations and generates changes on their functional effect traits, therefore, modifying the way species exploit their ecological niches and participate in the overall ecosystem functioning.     

Comparing aquatic risk assessment methods for the photosynthesis-inhibiting herbicides metribuzin and metamitron

Three different risk assessment procedures are described that aim to protect freshwater habitats from risks of the photosynthesis-inhibiting herbicides metribuzin and metamitron. These procedures are (1) the first-tier approach, based on standard toxicity tests and the application of an assessment factor, (2) the Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) approach, based on laboratory tests with a wider array of species and the application of a statistical model to calculate the HCx (the Hazardous Concentration for x% of the species), and (3) the model ecosystem approach, based on the evaluation of treatment-related effects in field enclosures. A comparison of the risk assessment procedures reveals that the first-tier approach is the most conservative for metamitron and metribuzin, and that HC5 values (and even HC10 values) based on acute EC50 values of algae and aquatic vascular plants may be used to derive maximum permissible concentrations for single applications. For both compounds these HC5 values were very similar to the ecological threshold concentrations in the enclosure studies. In contrast to model ecosystem experiments, however, HCx values based on lab toxicity tests do not provide information on the recovery potential of sensitive endpoints and on indirect effects, which may be important for regulatory decision-making. In the enclosure study, indirect effects of metribuzin on invertebrate populations were observed at an exposure concentration that was approximately 20 times lower than the corresponding HC5 value based on lab toxicity data for aquatic invertebrates.     

Ecological risk assessment for aquatic species exposed to contaminants in Keelung River, Taiwan

An ecological risk assessment was conducted for Keelung River in northern Taiwan. The objective of this study was to assess the risk to fish, aquatic insects, and benthic macroinvertebrates associated with chemical-of-potential-concern (COPC) in the river and to rank ecological risk for these chemicals. The protection of at least 95% of the species 90% of the time from acute and chronic COPC exposures was the defined assessment endpoint. Nine inorganic and organic contaminants were selected to evaluate the impact to aquatic community in the Keelung River. The quotient method served as screen level estimation of risk. The Aquatic Ecological Risk Assessment model was used to analyze exposure and ecological effects and to estimate community level risk. The logarithmic regression model between probability and lethal concentration was established. The combined risks of multiple chemicals were evaluated under assumption of additive risk. The results indicated that zinc and copper pose higher risk among metals. Ammonia, copper, and zinc posed virtually all of the risk, while organic COPCs posed a negligible risk. Potential ecological risk from ammonia exposure was greatest. The probability of more than 5% of the species being affected by acute or chronic toxicity of COPCs is about 100%. In average (50% of the time), 99% of the species would be affected by acute toxicity of COPCs, and about all the species would be affected by chronic toxicity of COPCs. Uncertainties in this assessment were associated with variability in ecosystem stressors, exposure data, ecological effect data, and risk characterization.     

High Arctic ecosystem states: Conceptual models of vegetation change to guide long-term monitoring and research

Vegetation change has consequences for terrestrial ecosystem structure and functioning and may involve climate feedbacks. Hence, when monitoring ecosystem states and changes thereof, the vegetation is often a primary monitoring target. Here, we summarize current understanding of vegetation change in the High Arctic—the World’s most rapidly warming region—in the context of ecosystem monitoring. To foster development of deployable monitoring strategies, we categorize different kinds of drivers (disturbances or stresses) of vegetation change either as pulse (i.e. drivers that occur as sudden and short events, though their effects may be long lasting) or press (i.e. drivers where change in conditions remains in place for a prolonged period, or slowly increases in pressure). To account for the great heterogeneity in vegetation responses to climate change and other drivers, we stress the need for increased use of ecosystem-specific conceptual models to guide monitoring and ecological studies in the Arctic. We discuss a conceptual model with three hypothesized alternative vegetation states characterized by mosses, herbaceous plants, and bare ground patches, respectively. We use moss-graminoid tundra of Svalbard as a case study to discuss the documented and potential impacts of different drivers on the possible transitions between those states. Our current understanding points to likely additive effects of herbivores and a warming climate, driving this ecosystem from a moss-dominated state with cool soils, shallow active layer and slow nutrient cycling to an ecosystem with warmer soil, deeper permafrost thaw, and faster nutrient cycling. Herbaceous-dominated vegetation and (patchy) bare ground would present two states in response to those drivers. Conceptual models are an operational tool to focus monitoring efforts towards management needs and identify the most pressing scientific questions. We promote greater use of conceptual models in conjunction with a state-and-transition framework in monitoring to ensure fit for purpose approaches. Defined expectations of the focal systems’ responses to different drivers also facilitate linking local and regional monitoring efforts to international initiatives, such as the Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Program.     

Model of the Long-Term Transport and Accumulation of Radionuclides in Future Landscapes

Assessments of radiological impacts on humans and other biota from potential releases to the biosphere from a deep geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel are associated with several challenges. Releases, if any, will likely occur in a far future and to an environment that will have experienced substantial transformations. Such releases would occur over very long periods during which environmental conditions will vary continuously due to climate change and ecosystem succession. Assessments of radiological impacts must therefore be based on simulations using models that can describe the transport and accumulation of radionuclides for a large variety of environmental conditions. In this paper we describe such a model and show examples of its application in a safety assessment, taking into account results from sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the model predictions.     

A comparison of mixture toxicity assessment: examining the chronic toxicity of atrazine, permethrin and chlorothalonil in mixtures to Ceriodaphnia cf. dubia

Pesticides predominantly occur in aquatic ecosystems as mixtures of varying complexity, yet relatively few studies have examined the toxicity of pesticide mixtures. Atrazine, chlorothalonil and permethrin are widely used pesticides that have different modes of action. This study examined the chronic toxicities (7-d reproductive impairment) of these pesticides in binary and ternary mixtures to the freshwater cladoceran Ceriodaphnia cf. dubia. The toxicity of the mixtures was compared to that predicted by the independent action (IA) model for mixtures, as this is the most appropriate model for chemicals with different modes of action. Following this they were compared to the toxicity predicted by the concentration addition (CA) model for mixtures. According to the IA model, the toxicity of the chlorothalonil plus atrazine mixture conformed to antagonism, while that of chlorothalonil and permethrin conformed to synergism. The toxicity of the atrazine and permethrin mixture as well as the ternary mixture conformed to IA implying there was either no interaction between the components of these mixtures and/or in the case of the ternary mixture the interactions cancelled each other out to result in IA. The synergistic and antagonistic mixtures deviated from IA by factors greater than 3 and less than 2.5, respectively. When the toxicity of the mixtures was compared to the predictions of the CA model, the binary mixture of chlorothalonil plus atrazine, permethrin plus atrazine and the ternary mixture all conformed to antagonism, while the binary mixture of chlorothalonil plus permethrin conformed to CA. Using the CA model provided estimates of mixture toxicity that did not markedly underestimate the measured toxicity, unlike the IA model, and therefore the CA model is the most suitable to use in ecological risk assessments of these pesticides.     

Tissue-based environmental quality benchmarks and standards

Although the use of tissue concentrations (residues) of chemical contaminants as the dose metric to characterize chemical toxicity to aquatic organisms has been gaining acceptance over the past 20 years, tissue concentrations are less commonly used in water quality management and have yet to be formally adopted as benchmarks or environmental quality standards (EQS). This synthesis paper addresses advantages and disadvantages for the development and application of tissue-based EQS as an alternative and supplement to exposure-based EQS determined with water and sediment concentration data. Tissue-based EQS can be readily developed in parallel with conventional toxicity tests, and achieved by quantification of chemical concentrations in tissue alongside traditional concentration-response toxicity testing. Tissue-residue toxicity metrics can be used as benchmarks for screening and monitoring water and sediment quality, to derive equivalent water or sediment EQS, and for ecological risk assessments and weight of evidence approaches for assessing ecosystem impairment. Tissue-based toxicity metrics and associated EQS provide several advantages; however, there are some limitations to consider and key knowledge gaps to fill.     

Status and trends in Arctic vegetation: Evidence from experimental warming and long-term monitoring

Changes in Arctic vegetation can have important implications for trophic interactions and ecosystem functioning leading to climate feedbacks. Plot-based vegetation surveys provide detailed insight into vegetation changes at sites around the Arctic and improve our ability to predict the impacts of environmental change on tundra ecosystems. Here, we review studies of changes in plant community composition and phenology from both long-term monitoring and warming experiments in Arctic environments. We find that Arctic plant communities and species are generally sensitive to warming, but trends over a period of time are heterogeneous and complex and do not always mirror expectations based on responses to experimental manipulations. Our findings highlight the need for more geographically widespread, integrated, and comprehensive monitoring efforts that can better resolve the interacting effects of warming and other local and regional ecological factors.     

A model for estimating the potential biomagnification of chemicals in a generic food web: Preliminary development

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Bioaccumulation and biomagnification of organic pollutants have been increasingly assessed and modeled during the last years. Due to the complexity of these processes and the large variability of food webs, setting generic assessments for these parameters is really difficult. Equilibrium models, based on a compound's lipophylicity, are the main tool in regulatory proposals, such as for identifying Persistent, Bioaccumulative and Toxic Substances (PBTs), although a refinement has been claimed by the scientific community. Toxicokinetic studies offer an alternative for these estimations, where biomagnification is modeled as a succession of bioaccumulation processes, each one regulated by toxicokinetic parameters. METHODS: A review of kinetic models covering species belonging to different trophic levels and with different ecological behavior has been conducted. The results were employed for setting a conceptual model for estimating the biomagnification potential in a generic food web, which was mathematically implemented through system dynamic models developed under data sheet software. Crystal Ball was then employed for allowing Monte Carlo based probabilistic calculations. Bioaccumulation laboratory assays have been performed to estimate toxicokinetic parameters in mussels (Mytilus edulis) with two PAHs (chrysene and benzo[a]pyrene). The contamination was delivered via food. The exposure period lasted more than one month followed then by a depuration phase. The contaminant content was determined on an individual basis on five replicates. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION:. The reviewed information suggested the development of a tiered conceptual biomagnification model, starting with a simplified food chain which can be refined to more realistic and complex models in successive levels. CONCLUSIONS: The mathematical implementation of the conceptual model offers tools for estimating the potential for bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemicals under very different conditions. The versatility of the model can be used for both comparative estimations and for validating the model. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Since bioaccumulation and biomagnification processes are crucial elements for a proper risk assessment of chemicals, their estimation by mathematical models has been widely tested. However, inregulatory assessments, too simplistic models are still being used quite often. The biomagnification model presented in this study should be amore accurate alternative to these models. In comparison to other previously published biomagnification models, the present one covers the time variation of bioaccumulation using just a few toxicokinetic parameters.     

Evaluation of an ecosystem model in ecological risk assessment of chemicals

We used a Lake Suwa version of Comprehensive Aquatic Systems Model (CASM_SUWA) to demonstrate the risk estimation of 10 different chemicals and examined the applicability and reliability of the model in ecological risk assessment by qualitatively and quantitatively comparing with the results of studies on multiple species using mesocosm tests. The qualitative comparison of the model results with those of the reported mesocosm tests indicated that some evidence observed in mesocosm studies supported the indirect effects predicted from simulation using the model. The comparison of the concentration levels at which 20% biomass reduction (BR20) in the most sensitive population estimated from the model with the no-observed effect concentration values derived from multiple species mesocosm tests (MS-NOEC) suggested that both data were related to each other and the model can be used to help in the determination of an ecological acceptable level of chemicals in aquatic environments. The analysis of the potential of indirect effects of a chemical for fish population indicated that the magnitude of the potential of indirect effects was quantified based on the ratio of BR50 to LC50 for fish population.     

Reserves, resilience and dynamic landscapes

In a world increasingly modified by human activities, the conservation of biodiversity is essential as insurance to maintain resilient ecosystems and ensure a sustainable flow of ecosystem goods and services to society. However, existing reserves and national parks are unlikely to incorporate the long-term and large-scale dynamics of ecosystems. Hence, conservation strategies have to actively incorporate the large areas of land that are managed for human use. For ecosystems to reorganize after large-scale natural and human-induced disturbances, spatial resilience in the form of ecological memory is a prerequisite. The ecological memory is composed of the species, interactions and structures that make ecosystem reorganization possible, and its components may be found within disturbed patches as well in the surrounding landscape. Present static reserves should be complemented with dynamic reserves, such as ecological fallows and dynamic successional reserves, that are part of ecosystem management mimicking natural disturbance regimes at the landscape level.     

The return of the giants: ecological effects of an increasing elephant population

Northern Botswana and adjacent areas, have the world's largest population of African elephant (Loxodonta africana). However, a 100 years ago elephants were rare following excessive hunting. Simultaneously, ungulate populations were severely reduced by decease. The ecological effects of the reduction in large herbivores must have been substantial, but are little known. Today, however, ecosystem changes following the increase in elephant numbers cause considerable concern in Botswana. This was the background for the "BONIC" project, investigating the interactions between the increasing elephant population and other ecosystem components and processes. Results confirm that the ecosystem is changing following the increase in elephant and ungulate populations, and, presumably, developing towards a situation resembling that before the reduction of large herbivores. We see no ecological reasons to artificially change elephant numbers. There are, however, economic and social reasons to control elephants, and their range in northern Botswana may have to be artificially restricted.     

Bioaccessibility of trace elements as affected by soil parameters in smelter-contaminated agricultural soils: a statistical modeling approach

An investigation was undertaken to identify the most significant soil parameters that can be used to predict Cd, Pb, and Zn bioaccessibility in smelter-contaminated agricultural soils. A robust model was established from an extended database of soils by using: (i) a training set of 280 samples to select the main soil parameters, to define the best population to be taken into account for the model elaboration, and to construct multivariate regression models, and (ii) a test set of 110 samples to validate the ability of the regression models. Total carbonate, organic matter, sand, P(2)O(5), free Fe-Mn oxide, and pseudototal Al and trace element (TE) contents appeared as the main variables governing TE bioaccessibility. The statistical modeling approach was reasonably successful, indicating that the main soil factors influencing the bioaccessibility of TEs were taken into account and the predictions could be applicable for further risk evaluation in the studied area.     

Derivation of aquatic predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) for 2,4-dichlorophenol: comparing native species data with non-native species data

2,4-Dichlorophenol (2,4-DCP) is known as an important chemical intermediate and an environmental endocrine disruptor. There is no paper dealing with the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) of 2,4-DCP, mainly due to shortage of chronic and site-specific toxicity data. In the present study, toxicity data was obtained from the tests using six Chinese native aquatic species. The HC₅ (hazardous concentration for 5% of species) was derived based on the constructed species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which was compared with that derived from literature toxicity data of non-native species. For invertebrates, the survival no-observed effect concentrations (NOECs) were 0.05 and 1.00 mg L⁻¹ for Macrobrachium superbum and Corbicula fluminea, respectively. NOECs based on fishes’ growth were 0.10, 0.20 and 0.40 mg L⁻¹ for Mylopharyngodon piceus, Plagiognathops microlepis and Erythroculter ilishaeformis, respectively. For aquatic plant Soirodela polyrhiza, NOEC based on concentration of chlorophyll was 1.00 mg L⁻¹. A final PNEC calculated using the SSD approach with a 50% certainty based on different taxa ranged between 0.008 and 0.045 mg L⁻¹. There is no significant difference between HC₅ derived from native and that from non-native taxa.