A review on historical trajectories and spatially explicit scenarios of land-use and land-cover changes in China

ABSTRACT

Land use in China has changed remarkably over the past centuries with manifold implications for sustainable development. Investigation and projection of the land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC) have therefore become critical to promote the understanding of the LUCC process and the interactions with human societies. Scientists had devoted great efforts to create, process, and interpret comprehensive historical land-use/cover datasets, and to simulate future land-use systems under different scenarios. We synthesize the literature on the historical trajectories of LUCC in China, and summarize existing efforts of scenario developments for the projection of spatially explicit LUCC. Our review therefore provides salient suggestions for future land-use change analysis.     

Sustainability analysis of Chinese transport policy

SUMMARY

Whilst the world economy is developed, the life and development of human beings have been threatened by the imbalance between environmental and ecological aspects. Thus, sustainability is becoming increasingly the focus of various social fields. For most developing countries, a strategy with good sustainability for social development is of long-term significance to keep the economy in expansion. This paper first reviews the conceptual framework and up-to-date development of sustainability. Second, it reviews the current transport situation of China and its future demands. Third, the paper analyses transport policy from the viewpoints of energy consumption and environment pollution caused by transportation. It finally summarises suggestions for transport policy that China should consider in the future.     

A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

The systems approach for sustainable development at catchment and parish group levels

SUMMARY

Sustainable development considers the development of urban and rural areas, and agriculture is an important element in reaching that aim. After decades of using synthetic pesticides, fertilisers and growth hormones in agriculture, farmers as well as the public, policy and decision makers require options to minimise the negative impacts of agricultural practices on the environment and humans consistent with so called sustainable development. Such options are possible, but require time and a range of approaches. Agricultural production systems in Kent belong to a system and so the systems approach becomes useful to solve their problems. Agricultural activities are interrelated, considering their hierarchical levels and their interactions. Hence, agroecology as a discipline using a systems approach suggests the catchment level as an appropriate unit for the analysis, design, development and evaluation of the ecological and socioeconomic interactions that take place within it. This kind of analysis ideally requires a multidisciplinary team, using disciplinary tools such as GIs and many sources of data. The combination of such a wide range of types of data in a systems approach to sustainability is described as a way to support the public, researchers, policy and decision makers.     

A multidimensional decision-support approach to sustainable development planning

SUMMARY

The concept of sustainable development has become widely accepted as an instrumental objective of resource planning and environmental policy analysis. Nevertheless, applied planning approaches appropriate to this task have been slow in forthcoming. This paper suggests that one avenue for the application of sustainable development principles to resource management problems may be through multidimensional decision-support models. This approach recognizes that contemporary decision problems in the field of environmental planning are characterized by a diversity of structures and processes, incommensurable variables, and conflicting development objectives and constraints. On the basis of the articulated approach to sustainable development, a case study centred on Clayoquot Sound, British Columbia, Canada is presented. The case study serves to illustrate the efficacy of a multidimensional decision-support approach to sustainable development.     

Simulating future land use and ecosystem services in Northern Thailand

Enhancing ecosystem services is important as it provides foundation for the wellbeing of people. This paper presents the future land use simulation for enhancing ecosystem services using CLUMondo dynamic spatial model. The land use change was assessed from 1989 to 2013 in Wang Thong watershed of Northern Thailand using GIS and a set of ecosystem services was assessed using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. Future land uses until 2030 were projected for three policy scenarios, namely business-as-usual, integrated land use development, and enhancing environmental services with different levels of emphasis on ecosystem services. In business-as-usual scenario, it was observed that ecosystem services will decline by 2030 from the base year of 2013, whereas in integrated land use development scenario, the ecosystem services will increase by 5% compared to base year due to anticipated effective protection of remaining forests in all existing and proposed protected areas of the study area. In enhancing environmental services scenario, the ecosystem services will increase by 15%. Such results can serve as useful information in policy formulation in developing land use options, which help enhance ecosystem services in future.     

Integrierte Treibhausgasbewertung der Prozessketten von Erdgas und industriellem Biomethan in Deutschland

Background The use of natural gas has increased in the last years. In the future, its import supply and transport structure will diversify (longer distances, higher share of LNG (liquefied natural gas), new pipelines). Thus the process chain and GHG emissions of the production, processing, transport and distribution might change. Simultaneously, the injection of bio methane into the natural gas grid is becoming more important. Although its combustion is regarded as climate neutral, during the production processes of bio methane GHG emissions are caused. The GHG emissions occurring during the process chain of energy fuels are relevant for the discussion on climate policy and decision making processes. They are becoming even more important, considering the new Fuel Quality Directive of the EU (Dec. 2008), which aims at controlling emissions of the fuel process chains. Aim In the context of the aspects outlined above the aim is to determine the future development of gas supply for Germany and the resulting changes in GHG emissions of the whole process chain of natural gas and bio methane. With the help of two gas consumption scenarios and an LCA of bio methane, the amount of future emissions and emission paths until 2030 can be assessed and used to guide decision processes in energy policy. Results and discussion The process chain of bio methane and its future technical development are outlined and the related emissions calculated. The analysis is based on an accompanying research study on the injection of bio methane to the German gas grid. Two types of biogas plants have been considered whereof the “optimised technology” is assumed to dominate the future market. This is the one which widely exploits the potential of process optimisation of the current “state of the art” plant. The specific GHG emissions of the process chain can thus be nearly halved from currently 27.8?t CO₂-eq./TJ to 14.8?t CO₂-eq./TJ in 2030. GHG emissions of the natural gas process chain have been analysed in detail in a previous article. Significant modifications and a decrease of specific emissions is possible, depending on the level of investment in the modernisation of the gas infrastructure and the process improvements. These mitigation options might neutralise the emission increase resulting from longer distances and energy intensive processes. In the last section two scenarios (low and high consumption) illustrate the possible development of the German gas supply until 2030, given an overall share of 8–12?% of bio methane. Considering the dynamic emission factors calculated in the former sections, the overall gas emissions and average specific emissions of German gas supply can be given. The current emissions of 215.4 million t CO₂-eq. are reduced by 25?% in the low-consumption scenario (162 million t CO₂-eq.), where consumption is reduced by 17?%. Assuming a consumption which is increased by 17?% in 2030, emissions are around 7?% higher (230.9 million t CO₂-eq.) than today. Conclusions Gaseous fuels will still play a significant role for the German energy supply in the next two decades. The GHG emissions mainly depend on the amount of gas used. Thus, energy efficiency will be a key issue in the climate and energy related policy discussion. A higher share of bio methane and high investments in mitigation and best available technologies can significantly reduce the emissions of the process chain. The combustion of bio methane is climate neutral compared to 56?t CO₂/TJ caused by the direct combustion of natural gas (or 111?t CO₂/TJ emitted by lignite). The advantage of gaseous energy carriers with the lowest levels of GHG emissions compared to other fossil fuels still remains. This holds true for fossil natural gas alone as well as for the expected future blend with bio-methane.     

Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness

Long-term future development of European agriculture within the global market is highly uncertain, but can potentially have large impacts on the future of agricultural businesses, rural communities and amenities such as traditional landscapes and biodiversity. Despite great uncertainties it is of interest to explore the extent of these potential changes. This paper provides an explorative scenario of the European crop production in a liberalised world without European Union (EU) market interventions. The results do not form a prediction or a business as usual scenario, but rather a plausible and salient thought-experiment of a possible future based on the consistent integration of current conceptual and quantitative models.Future scenarios for climate, demography, technology and global demand for agricultural commodities are used to assess the competitiveness of European agriculture. Regional economic competitiveness is determined by combining indicators for the economic strength of farms in a region and population pressure on agricultural land, and subsequently used to determine where agricultural production is likely to sustain under the market liberalisation scenario. The method is illustrated for the 27 EU member state countries for three commodities: wheat, potato and milk (relying on grass).Results include maps of the dominant wheat, potato and milk producing regions across Europe as projected for 2050. They show that due to increased agricultural productivity, less agricultural land will be needed to supply the European demand for food and feed. In addition, production will concentrate in those regions which have a comparative advantage. This potentially leads to a strong polarisation between north-western Europe and southern Europe, which faces negative impacts of climate change and central and northern Europe where agricultural businesses lag in economic strength and farm size. A contrasting policy intervention scenario illustrates how differences in demand and productivity result in an expansion of the agricultural area, especially for the production of wheat.Although the complete liberalisation scenario may seem unlikely, and the underlying assumptions have great uncertainty, the results help identify and map market pressures on agricultural land use across regions in Europe. As such, it stimulates policy debate on the desired future for the European agricultural sector and the trade-offs between economic competitiveness under global market conditions and policy intervention. In addition, it provides a basis for the planning of alternative economic strategies for agriculturally less competitive regions.     

Microplastics pollution in Bangladesh: current scenario and future research perspective

ABSTRACT

Microplastics are emerging environmental pollutants that have gained tremendous scientific interest in recent years. These micropollutants are omnipresent both in the terrestrial and aquatic environments posing a deleterious threat to the ecosystem and biodiversity. So, it is important to develop a deep understanding of the environmental fate and potential adverse impacts of microplastics on the aquatic and terrestrial environments. By critically reviewing the previously published scientific literature, the present synthesis briefly outlines the characteristics, occurrence and potential toxic effects of microplastics on terrestrial and aquatic biota. The article also focuses on some innovative approaches for sustainable remediation of macroplastics as well as microplastics. Since the concept of microplastics pollution has yet in its infancy in Bangladesh, this synthesis provides an overview of the current scenario of microplastics pollution and some future research recommendations in the context of Bangladesh which might be helpful to the novice researchers of this field.     

Comparative aspects of mountain land resources management and sustainability: Case studies from India and Canada

India and Canada share a common heritage in natural resources management. Both have a colonial background, settlers and indigenous peoples; there is a history of management agencies with utilitarian attitudes, and a history of treating public lands as commodities for commerce rather than as resources for local livelihoods. This historical context guided the overall goal of this study, which was policy development for the sustainable use of mountain environments. Interviews, workshops and seminars were held with local people and resource management professionals in a comparative case study in two regions; the Kullu area in Himachal Pradesh, India and the Arrow Lakes area in British Columbia, Canada. The paper is organized around two main objectives of the work relating to the successes and failures of mountain environment resource management policies and the development of criteria for assessing and monitoring sustainability in mountain environments, in particular, criteria for examining relevant crosscultural dimensions of sustainable development in these environments. By way of conclusion the paper considers further ways in which traditional resource policy development and implementation is being challenged by changing values and priorities; ecosystems management with people; and co-management and public participation.     

Economic and environmental performance of electricity production in Finland: A multicriteria assessment framework

Meeting environmental, economic, and societal targets in energy policy is complex and requires a multicriteria assessment framework capable of exploring trade-offs among alternative energy options. In this study, we integrated economic analysis and biophysical accounting methods to investigate the performance of electricity production in Finland at plant and national level. Economic and environmental costs of electricity generation technologies were assessed by evaluating economic features (direct monetary production cost), direct and indirect use of fossil fuels (GER cost), environmental impact (CO₂ emissions), and global environmental support (emergy cost). Three scenarios for Finland's energy future in 2025 and 2050 were also drawn and compared with the reference year 2008. Accounting for an emission permit of 25 €/t CO₂, the production costs calculated for CHP, gas, coal, and peat power plants resulted in 42, 67, 68, and 74 €/MWh, respectively. For wind and nuclear power a production cost of 63 and 35 €/MWh were calculated. The sensitivity analysis confirmed wind power's competitiveness when the price of emission permits overcomes 20 €/t CO₂. Hydro, wind, and nuclear power were characterized by a minor dependence on fossil fuels, showing a GER cost of 0.04, 0.13, and 0.26 J/J_e, and a value of direct and indirect CO₂ emissions of 0.01, 0.04, and 0.07 t CO₂/MWh. Instead, peat, coal, gas, and CHP plants showed a GER cost of 4.18, 4.00, 2.78, and 2.33 J/J_e. At national level, a major economic and environmental load was given by CHP and nuclear power while hydro power showed a minor load in spite of its large production. The scenario analysis raised technological and environmental concerns due to the massive increase of nuclear power and wood biomass exploitation. In conclusion, we addressed the need to further develop an energy policy for Finland's energy future based on a diversified energy mix oriented to the sustainable exploitation of local, renewable, and environmentally friendly energy sources.     

Participatory research and sustainable development in the Sahelo-Sudanian region

SUMMARY

A participatory research programme was conducted in the groundnut basin of Senegal, where there was a need to intensify the local farming systems. The research yielded a set of technical references and profitable innovations, which were introduced through specific development actions. The technology transfer aims at the establishment of sustainable farming systems and takes into account the climatic risks and innovation costs. Identification of research themes and implementation of results was based on various analyses: climatic analysis at regional level (establishment of climatic zones) and identification of constraints at farm level. Farmers' interests and the research results were combined to define suitable interventions for each surveyed farm, with the aim of increasing farm income and restoring soil fertility. The research also yielded elements for formulating an appropriate and realistic agricultural policy for the region. Clearly, the development of livestock farming activities is essential in bringing new economic life into the region and increasing the sustainability of farming systems in erratic climatic conditions.     

Modeling and simulation of industrial water demand of Beijing municipality in China

Statistic and econometric regression models were established in this study to analyze and predict industrial water demand, water deficits, and their future uncertainty in Beijing—a Chinese city with a severe water stress problem. A forecasting model was selected based on a modeling evaluation by comparing predictions with observations. Four scenarios were designed to simulate and analyze the future uncertainty of industrial water demand and the water deficit of Beijing. The modeling results for industrial water demand suggested that Beijing industry would face a water deficit between 3.06 × 10⁸ m³ in 2008 and 2.77×10⁸ m³ in 2015, though its industrial water demand would decrease from 6.31×10⁸ m³ to 4.84 ×10⁸ m³ during this period of time. Results from simulated scenario illustrated that, due to the extreme water scarcity situation, industry in Beijing would still face a serious water deficit problem even with a very optimistic scenario for the future.     

Development of environmental policy,objectives, and targets

This paper describes a process to develop and establish an environmental policy and its associated environmental targets, objectives, and management programmes. The environmental policy is defined in a statement which addresses the company expectations for programmes that are important to assure adequate environmental protection and define its future commitment towards preventing pollution and continuously improving the effectiveness of its environmental protection programmes. A set of environmental objectives, derived from the policy, define the overall goals which will ensure that the company's environmental performance will remain consistent with the commitment identified in its policy when its environmental management system (EMS) is implemented, Environmental targets reflect the requirements and standards that the company must strive to achieve each objective and minimize any harmful environmental impacts from its production and manufacturing processes or other activities. In addition to defining specific targets, environmental management programmes are also used to guide EMS implementation. These programmes, however, must provide the company with the necessary flexibility to select the most appropriate technologies to enhance its own processes and prudently allocate its available financial resources in areas that return the greatest overall environmental benefit.Though they are expected to allow some discretion in the allocation of resources targeted towards environmental protection, EMS programmes must also provide assurance that the corporation environmental policy, objectives, targets, and management programmes do not result in a facility failure to adhere to all of its certification requirements. The principle and factors described in this article should be considered to the extent that they are necessary and practical.     

Visions for the future of transport: Approaching consensus?

Many cities and national authorities have made substantial progress in developing transport strategies to reconcile environmental pressures with the increasing demand for travel. However, there is still some doubt as to what are the key ingredients of a successful strategy and progress in implementing such changes has been slow. Research is needed to better understand what are the essential ingredients to a balanced transport policy, the constraints, which are preventing these from being implemented, and the acceptability of such changes. This paper reports on the outcomes of a project funded under the Rees Jeffreys Road Fund research programme 'From Realism to Reality', which aims to identify the elements necessary for a successful transport policy in the UK into the 21st century, The project seeks to develop a vision for the transport system of the future through an understanding of the extent of the current problems in the transport sector and an examination of the range and effectiveness of options and instruments available to resolve them. The paper examines a range of visions that are currently in the public domain. Results show that there is a degree of consistency in the general aims and objectives of such visions, but that there is rather less consensus in the means proposed to achieve those aims.     

The Declining Influence of Science On Marine Environmental Policy

Abstract

Differences between the scientific and environmental policy communities regarding marine environmental protection strategies are discussed in the context of the nature and extent of scientific influence on marine environmental policy. Public perceptions of the nature and severity of marine pollution frequently differ from scientific assessments. the thesis of this paper is that the increasing influence of public perception on marine environmental protection policy is leading to the adoption of simplistic and unnecessarily extreme approaches to marine pollution prevention and to a reduced reliance on science. This trend is illustrated by some recent international developments and some suggestions are made towards enhancing the influence of science on marine protection policy.     

The importance of agricultural yield elasticity for indirect land use change: a Bayesian network analysis for robust uncertainty quantification

ABSTRACT

A major barrier to realising biofuels’ climate change mitigation potential is uncertainty concerning carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). Central to this uncertainty is the extent to which yields can respond dynamically to increased demand for agricultural commodities. This study examines the elasticity of soybean and corn yields in the USA for 1990–2017 using Bayesian network models to robustly quantify uncertainty. The central finding is that a single parameter value for yield elasticity does not adequately represent the effects of technology, policy and price pressures through time. The models demonstrate the limiting role of technological progress as well as farmers’ capital investment in response to system shocks. Results suggest evaluation of parameter uncertainty alone is unlikely to capture a full range of future ILUC scenarios and reiterate the need for ILUC studies to use probabilistic approaches as standard to robustly inform climate change mitigation policies.     

The potential of current legal structures to support Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander interests in the Australian bush food industry

There are complex connections between Australia’s native plants and first peoples, the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. The maintenance of these connections is central to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture and well-being and the tangible realisation of Australian policy commitments. Diverse cultural connections combine with other motivations to underpin an array of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander interests in the commercial development of traditional plant foods (‘bush foods’). Despite nation-wide policy support for these interests, there is no national legal framework to support them. This fortifies the popular call for a new (sui generis) law that transforms the interests of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples into enforceable legal rights. It is unclear the extent to which a single sui generis law might help Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples realise their diverse interests in the development of gourmet bush food products and new bush food varieties. It is also unlikely that Australia will implement such a law in the near future. This paper offers a preliminary study of the capacity of current legal structures to support some key Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander interests that might arise in these two development contexts. The study can inform the future development of practical legal strategies to support the diverse interests of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in the bush food industry.     

Management of water resources of the Nile Basin

SUMMARY

A water crisis is looming in the Nile Basin in the near future due to higher population growth rates, greater affluence, and higher demand for water by agriculture and industry. There is no basin-wide agreement among the ten Nile Basin states and the existing rules of international water management are complicated and are not equipped to handle any future water conflicts in the Nile Basin. This paper reviews the existing water sharing arrangements among the Nile Basin countries, examines areas of potential conflict over future water use, and suggests possible areas of cooperation that will ensure equitable use of the Nile waters. The paper concludes by (1) appealing for formulation of good water development policies to deal with growing water needs such as water quality protection, efficiency of water delivery and efficiency of water use; and (2) calling for human resources development and technology transfers that are critical for good management and efficient use of the water resources of the Nile.