Examining the potential impacts of sea level rise on coastal wetlands in north-eastern NSW,Australia

The coastal wetlands of north-eastern New South Wales (NSW) Australia are increasingly being affected by anthropogenic factors such as urbanisation, residential development and agricultural development. However, little is known about their vulnerability to sea level rise as a result of climate change. The aim of this research is to predict the potential impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the coastal wetland communities. Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) was used to predict the potential impacts of sea level rise. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used for mapping and analysis. It was found that a meter rise in sea level could decrease coastal wetlands such as Inland fresh marshes from about 225.67 km² in February 2009 to about 168.04 km² by the end of the century in north-eastern NSW, Australia. The outcomes from this research can contribute to enhancing wetland conservation and management in NSW.     

Awareness of sea-level response under climate change on the coast of Ghana

In response to climate change, coastal communities are expected to experience increasing coastal impacts of sea-level rise (SLR). Strategies formulated and implemented to curb these impacts can thus be more effective if scientific findings on the response to climate change and SLR impacts on coastal communities are taken into consideration and not based merely on the need for coastal protection due to physical coastal erosion. There is also the need to determine the level of awareness of sea-level rise and responses in coastal communities to improve adaptation planning. This study assesses the impact of future erosion on the coastal land cover of Ghana. This assessment estimates approximately 2.66 km², 2.77 km², and 3.24 km² of coastal settlements, 2.10 km², 2.20 km² and 2.58 km² of lagoons, 1.39 km², 1.46 km² and 1.71 km² of wetlands to be at risk of inundation by the year 2050 based on coastal erosion estimates for the 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This study also assesses the level of awareness of respondents to SLR on the coast of Ghana and explores the availability and level of integration of scientific knowledge of SLR into coastal adaptation strategies in Ghana. Assessment of the awareness of SLR responses to the changing climate in Ghana is made through semi-structured interviews at national, municipal/district and coastal community scales. Although settlements may be inundated based on the coastal erosion estimates, coastal dwellers interviewed cherish their proximity to the sea and are determined to maintain their occupancy close to the sea as spatial location influences their source of livelihood (fishing). Respondents lack knowledge/understanding of SLR, as the majority of household interviewees attributed the rise or fall in sea level to God. Respondents from Ngiresia alleged that the ongoing coastal sea defence project in their community has led to increased malaria cases.     

Climate change adaptation in the Schleswig-Holstein sector of the Wadden Sea: an integrated state governmental strategy

Anthropogenic climate change constitutes a main challenge for the Wadden Sea. Accelerated sea level rise, increasing temperatures and changing wind climate may strongly alter present structures and functions of the ecosystem with negative consequences both for nature conservation and for coastal risk management. Being aware of these challenges, Schleswig-Holstein State Government decided to establish an integrated climate change adaptation strategy for the Schleswig-Holstein sector of the Wadden Sea. The strategy was adopted in June 2015. It aims at the long-term maintenance of present functions and structures as well as the integrity of the Wadden Sea ecosystem in a changing climate. The strategy was prepared by a project group consisting of representatives from State authorities as well as from nature conservation organisations and local institutions. First outcome of the strategy is that extra adaptation measures will not be necessary in the coming decades. However, pending on the future rate of sea level rise, shoreline erosion and sediment deficits in the Wadden Sea will increase and sooner or later drowning of tidal flats and terrestrial habitats like beaches, primary dunes and salt marshes will start. At the time when management measures to counteract the negative developments become expedient from a nature conservation viewpoint as well as for coastal risk management, adequate actions with minimized ecological interferences are possible. It is assumed that balancing the sediment deficits as the main adaptation measure may be implemented most efficiently by concentrating sediment suppletion at locations where natural forces organize redistribution in the Wadden Sea. Local technical coastal risk management measures like the strengthening of sea defences will, nevertheless, remain necessary as well.     

江苏沿海地区海洋灾害类型及其防治探讨

根据江苏沿海地区的地质地貌及气候的特点,综合分析了危害江苏沿海的海洋灾害类型,主要有海洋地质灾害、气候灾害和生物灾害等三种类型。地质灾害主要包括海岸侵蚀、海岸坍塌、和海平面上升;气候灾害主要包括台风风暴潮;生物灾害主要包括赤潮、湿地滩涂面积缩小等。提出相应的防治措施:(1)加强对海岸带地质背景和地质灾害研究,应用GIS和RS等先进技术建立海洋灾害信息系统;(2)加强海防工程建设,加高海堤提高质量,以防御灾害性海浪、风暴潮等侵袭;(3)应用生态学原理,建立沿海生态防护网,增强对风暴潮抵御能力保护沿海湿地资源;(4)加强对海洋灾害及防御知识的教育和对防灾减灾的管理等。     

Interactions between water and land in The Netherlands

The Netherlands are one of the most densely populated coastal countries in the world and there is only limited space for living, working, transport and recreation, while there is also the need to preserve and expand valuable natural habitats. In order to solve many existing and future conflicts of interest, and in order to create ‘added value’, strategies are developed to optimize the use of water-land systems. The principle of ‘building with nature’ is applied in order to integrate land in sea and water in land in such a way that future generations will be able to use coastal resources in a sustainable way, including a minimal effort to maintain the coastline and the promotion of a multiple-use system. The concept of Integrated multifunctional sustainable coastal zone development is introduced. This concept deals with a balanced approach to the lack of space for present and future coastal uses in relation to each other, to the hinterland, and to the sea. Flexible master plans are developed, taking into account many functions of the coastal zone, and facilitating adaptation to future developments—e.g. impacts of climate change and relative sea level rise. In this regard increasing the flexibility of the coastal zone is of vital importance. Large-scale coastal land reclamations in The Netherlands are dealt with, based on two different principles: (1) polder systems (low lying land reclamations surrounded and protected by dikes), (2) systems of ‘building with nature’—land reclamation protected by man-made foreshores, beaches and dunes. In the latter type new flexible dynamic-equilibrium coasts are created for many functions, while coastal vulnerability is reduced and a flexible coast is developed.     

Predicted effects of climate change,vegetation and tree cover on dune slack habitats at Ainsdale on the Sefton Coast,UK

Dune slack habitats are highly dependent on the availability of water to support flora and fauna. Typically this is provided by shallow groundwater. This paper describes the seasonal and long term variation in groundwater levels in part of the Sefton coastline between 1972 and 2007. The effects of climate change, vegetation management and coastline realignment on groundwater levels are modelled. The observed annual water table levels rise and fall with an amplitude of 1.5 m, but longer term variations and trends are apparent. A stochastic water balance model was used to describe the changes in water table levels in slack floors in the open dunes and also in areas afforested with pine trees. It was found that the pine trees evaporated 214 mm/year more than open dunes vegetation, resulting in the water table being 0.5–1.0 m lower under the trees than under the open dunes. The effects of climate change on the ground water was simulated using predictions of future climate conditions based on the UKCIP02 medium high emissions scenario. The increase in temperature and change in rainfall patterns will result in a decrease in mean ground water levels by 1.0–1.5 mm in the next 90 years. Typical patterns consist of sequences of 5–10 years of low water table levels interspersed by infrequent sequences consisting of 2–5 years of relatively high or “normal” levels. These results indicate that that flora and fauna that cannot survive a 5–10 year period of water table levels >2.5 m below ground level are unlikely to survive or persist in many slack areas and a change in the ecology of these slack may become inevitable. Other effects of climate change include sea level rise which will result in a gradual rise in water table levels. Coastal erosion will increase the water table gradient to the sea and result in a slight lowering of the ground water levels. Conversely coastal accretion will reverse this process. The spatial distribution of coastal erosion and accretion along the Sefton coastline and its likely impacts on groundwater levels are discussed. The modelling work described in this paper has identified the factors which have the largest effect on groundwater levels in temperate coastal dune systems.     

National assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise for the Chinese coast

Sea-level rise as a result of climate change increases inundation and erosion, which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environmental parameters at the coast. China’s coast is vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise and associated coastal flooding because of physical and socio-economical factors such as its low topography, highly developed economy, and highly dense population. To identify vulnerable sections of the coast, this paper presents a national assessment of the vulnerability of the Chinese coast using 8 physical variables: sea-level rise, coastal geomorphology, elevation, slope, shoreline erosion, land use, mean tide range, and mean wave height. A coastal vulnerability index was calculated by integrating the differentially weighted rank values of the 8 variables, based on which the coastline is segmented into 4 classes. The results show that 3% of the 18,000-km-long Chinese coast is very highly vulnerable, 29% is highly vulnerable, 58% is moderately vulnerable, and 10% is in the low-vulnerable class. Findings further reveal that large amounts of land and population will be vulnerable to inundation by coastal flooding from sea level rise and storm surge. Finally, some suggestions are presented for decision makers and other concerned stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal zone management and mitigation measures.     

Changing morphology of Ghana’s Accra coast

Coastal features in Ghana's Accra coast reflect both past and present processes that have been undergoing changes. These changes are influenced by a range of morphogenic factors such as geology and climatic conditions. These regimes have shaped the coastal geomorphic features through weathering processes that decompose and disintegrate the coastal rock. Sea level rise due to climate change is expected to increase coastal erosion and thus result in rapid changes in shoreline positions. Historic rate of sea level rise in Accra coast is about 2 mm/yr (Ibe & Quelennec, 1989) which is predicted to reach approximately 6 mm/yr in the next century since it conforms to the global change (Armah et al., 2005). This will result in flooding of vulnerable areas and enable waves to break closer inland. The effectiveness of the erosion process is aided considerably by the type of geology. Accra coastal zone has three types of rock in three identified geomorphic regions. They include unconsolidated and poorly consolidated rock along the western region, the Accraian series occupying the central region and the Dahomeyan series in the eastern region. The geology has thus influenced the extent to which the coastal features have changed and the type of cliff that is formed as a result of erosion within the regions. Generally, soft rock coastal features decay more rapidly than those of hard rock and tend to act as sediment sources. Human activities such as dam construction over the Densu River, engineering interventions to check the spread of erosion and sand mining has created sediment deficit which has exacerbated coastal erosion in Accra. Anthropogenic factors are estimated to account for 70-90% of coastal erosion problems in Accra.     

Use of local tidal records to identify relative sea level change: accuracy and error for decision makers

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers eustatic sea level rise to be a major impact driven by climate change. Relative sea level change, whether positive or negative, will affect industries, communities and ecology along the world??s coastlines and estuaries. Estimates of global eustatic sea level rise between 1961 and 2003 are 1.8?±?0.5?mm a^?1, reflecting results from validated global tide gauge records. Over the last two decades, several studies have used automatic tide gauge records with at least 80?years of data to generate global prediction models. The IPCC recognises that global change is not uniform, therefore local policy for flood management and coastal protection should rely on local change models that incorporate glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) and apply accurate data correction techniques. Some of the longest tidal records are held within the Northern Hemisphere, e.g. Cascais, Amsterdam, Aberdeen, Sheerness and Newlyn. The UK provides several important case studies highlighting changes in relative sea level between the north and the south, primarily due to variations in GIA rates of land uplift and subsidence. Tide gauge records are held by a variety of governmental, non-governmental and private organisations. However, each source may typically compile data in different ways, relying on diverse equipment and recording techniques, often with variations in frequency, length, quality and corrections applied. Even within a single organisation there may be differences in dataset quality. This paper examines some of the key sources of error when working with historical tidal datasets in local geographic areas and aims to identify the limitations of locally derived data thereby assisting in the determination of relative sea level trends that are of widespread value to infrastructure and policy makers.     

As the world warms: rising seas, coastal archaeology, and the erosion of maritime history

The human history of coastal regions around the world has been under assault for decades, from forces that include dam building, coastal modifications, the destruction of wetlands, marine erosion, population growth and rampant development, looting, and other processes. Global warming will exacerbate the destruction of cultural resources in coastal zones through accelerated sea level rise, intensified storm cycles, and related coastal erosion. Although average global sea levels have been rising for ∼20,000 years, they slowed dramatically about 7,000 years ago. Rates of sea level rise now appear to be increasing rapidly due to growing anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Global warming and rising seas, especially when combined with population growth and the implementation of measures designed to protect endangered coastal properties, threaten the deep maritime history of human migrations, settlement, and adaptations in coastal areas around the world. Ranging in age from the mid-Pleistocene to recent historic times, coastal archaeological sites contain invaluable data on ancient coastal societies, fisheries, and ecosystems. Archaeologists, historians, and other cultural resource managers must do more to anticipate, evaluate, and mitigate the effects of global warming, sea level rise, and coastal erosion on the long history of human maritime cultures.     

Responsiveness of Ada Sea Defence Project to salt water intrusion associated with sea level rise

The Ada peninsular in Ghana has suffered rapid coastal erosion and inundation for over half a century, accompanied by loss of property and livelihoods, economic stagnation and salt water intrusion. Government intervened to respond to these threats by implementing a sea defence project. A preliminary assessment indicates the project will deal with some urgent needs of property loss reduction and invigorate livelihood and economic opportunities. However, it will have minimal beneficial impacts on groundwater salinization, and may actually intensify salinity of surface water in the Volta River and adjoining water points by shifting salinity intrusion further upstream to affect hitherto salinity-free areas. The spatial reach of the salinity shift is uncertain. The potential for further sea level rise will aggravate and accentuate the region’s water scarcity dilemma if a coherent water management strategy is not sort sooner. The project demonstrates the limitations of employing static, narrow objectively designed sea defence project as a response to coastal erosion and inundation, because it lacks the capacity to deal with dynamism, complexity and multi-dimensional impacts associated with climate change related sea level rise.     

滨海盐沼及其植物群落的分布与多样性

滨海盐沼是广泛存在于世界中、高纬度地区的一种湿地生态系统,具有抵御风暴潮灾害、净化污染物和为珍稀濒危生物提供适宜生境等重要的生态和经济价值。滨海盐沼因随高程变化而急剧变化的环境梯度和植物带状分布现象而为生态学者阐释自然界物种的分布机制提供了理想系统。主要概述了滨海盐沼的定义、特点、类型、全球分布以及潮汐作用、土壤盐度等环境因子特征;阐述了不同尺度下滨海盐沼的植物群落分布和多样性特征。在滨海盐沼植物群落的分布特征上,重点阐述了中尺度下的植物带状分布,即植物群落往往在白海向陆渐高的不同高程梯度上表现出显著的分带分布,不同植物各自占据该梯度上的一定区域。通常认为,带状分布是植物竞争和物理性胁迫共同调控的结果,但其在不同地理区域的普适性仍存争议。滨海植物群落多样性往往较低,在中、小尺度上盐沼植物多样性受控于盐度、潮汐等物理性胁迫、植物间相互作用等因子的作用;在大尺度上盐沼植物多样性可能随纬度增大而增加。系统深入地认识滨海盐沼植物群落生态格局和过程,将为气候变化、生物入侵等人类影响下的滨海盐沼生态系统的管理和恢复提供有益经验。     

Coastal dwellers-power against climate change: a place-based perspective on individual and collective engagement in North Frisia

Climate change induces non-linear and unevenly distributed changes, such rising sea levels and extreme weather events that materialise on the regional level and considerably contribute to changes in the social fabric of regions, communities and places. Because of the need for societal responses, an in-depth understanding of individual and collective forms of engagement with climate change is of growing relevance. To contribute to close this gap, this paper applies a place-based approach for investigating how people’s place attachments and meanings inform individual and collective engagement with climate change. As a case study, the district of North Frisia (Germany) was chosen, a region between climate-change vulnerability and renewable-energy potential. Qualitative interviews and a household survey with coastal dwellers of the municipality of Reußenköge have been conducted, a group discussion with the Country Youth (Landjugend) and further interviews with experts from government, companies and associations spread over North Frisia and in Kiel. The results reveal two main findings: firstly, place-dependent attachments and meanings play a pivotal role for understanding people’s engagement with climate change, and secondly, the behavioural dimension of engagement involves diverse adaptation and mitigation measures adopted on individual and collective level. In sum, the findings conceptually and empirically reveal the importance of memories, experiences, knowledge and creativity for how people engage with climate change, but also exhibit the importance of policies mobilising community-based actions.     

GIS-based risk assessment for the Nile Delta coastal zone under different sea level rise scenarios case study: Kafr EL Sheikh Governorate, Egypt

Sea level changes are caused by several natural phenomena, including mainly ocean thermal expansion, glacial melt from Greenland and Antarctica. It was estimated, in this respect, that global average sea level rose, during the 20th Century, by at least 10 cm. This trend is expected to continue and most likely accelerated during the 21st Century due to human-induced global warming. Global average sea level is expected to rise, by the year 2100, due to global warming between 0.18 and 0.59 cm. Such a rise in sea-level will significantly impact coastal areas due to the high concentration of natural and socioeconomic activities and assets located along the coast. The northern coastal zone of the Nile Delta is generally low land, and is consequently vulnerable to direct and indirect impacts of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate changes, particularly inundation. Despite the uncertainty associated with developed scenarios for climate change and expected SLR, there is a need, according to precautionary approach, to assess and analyze the impacts of SLR. Such an assessment, on one hand, can assist in formulating effective adaptation options to specific, sometimes localized, impacts of SLR. On the other hand, such an analysis can contribute significantly to the development of integrated approach to deal with the impacts of SLR. The objective of this paper is to assess and spatially analyze the risks of expected sea level rise (SLR), in particular inundation, and its implications up to the year 2100 in Kafr El Sheikh Governorate, Egypt, using GIS techniques. For that purpose, a GIS was developed for the study area and then utilized to identify the spatial extent of those areas that would be vulnerable to inundation by SLR. Moreover, various land uses/land covers susceptible to such inundation were identified. Results indicate that more than 22.59 % and 24.50 % of the total area of Kafr El Sheikh Governorate would be vulnerable to inundation under B1 and A1FI (IPCC most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios), respectively. No significant difference was noticed between the two scenarios in terms of spatial extent of SLR impacts. It was also found that a significant proportion of these areas were found to be currently either undeveloped or wetlands. Moreover, it was found that about 90.13 % of the vulnerable areas are actually less exposed to the risks of SLR due to the existence of a number of man-made features, not intended as protection measures, e.g. International Coastal Highway, that can be used to limit the areas vulnerable to inundations by SLR.     

The potential impacts of sea level rise along the coastal zone of Kanyakumari District in Tamilnadu,India

Climate change associated with sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major environmental concerns of today. This paper presents an assessment of the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal zone of Kanyakumari District in Tamilnadu, India. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) combined with overlay techniques in GIS are used in determining the inundation zones along the coastal region. The analysis evaluated the impact on coastal fishing villages, landuse, tourist spots and sensitive areas under threat. The vulnerability of the coastal areas in Kanyakumari to inundation was quantified, based on the projected sea level rise scenarios of 0.5 and 1 m. Our findings reveal that approximately 13 km² of the land area of Kanyakumari would be permanently inundated due to SLR. This would result in loss of land, alteration of the coastal zone and affects coastal ecosystem. From the study, the mitigation measures (engineering measures) and Coastal Zone Management practices that can be taken to protect human life and property from sea level rise are suggested.     

Sea level rise and eelgrass (Zostera marina) production: A spatially explicit relative elevation model for Padilla Bay, WA

The dynamics that govern the elevation of a coastal wetland relative to sea level are complex, involving non-linear feedbacks among opposing processes. Changes in the balance between these processes can result in significant alterations to vegetation communities that are adapted to a specific range of water levels. Given that current sedimentation rates in Padilla Bay, Washington are likely less than historical levels and that eustatic sea level rise is accelerating, the extensive Zostera marina (eelgrass) meadows in the bay may be at risk of eventual submergence. We developed a spatially explicit relative elevation model and used it to project changes in the productivity and distribution of eelgrass in Padilla Bay over the next century. The model is mechanistic and incorporates many of the processes and feedbacks that govern coastal wetland elevation change. Accretion estimates made using ²¹⁰Pb dating of sediment cores, sediment characteristics measured within cores, and eelgrass productivity and decomposition data were used to initialize and calibrate the model. Validation was performed using an elevation change rate measured with a network of surface elevation tables. Both the field data and model simulations revealed a net accretion deficit for the bay. Simulations using current rates of sea level rise indicated an overall expansion of eelgrass within Padilla Bay over the next century as it migrates from the center of the bay shoreward.     

Implications of sea level rise for coastal dune habitat conservation in Wales,UK

The potential impact of future sea level rise and climate change on 15 Welsh coastal dune systems has been investigated. Historical Trend Analysis was undertaken using Ordnance Survey maps to quantify past shoreline change and to permit extrapolation of past trends to predict possible future shoreline positions by 2080–2100. Predictions were also made using the Bruun Rule relationship between sea level rise and shoreline response and an integrated method of assessment, Expert Geomorphological Assessment (EGA), which provides a ‘best estimate’ of future coastline change, taking into account such factors as geological constraints, the nature of past, present and future environmental forcing factors, and known coastal process–response relationships. The majority of the 15 systems investigated experienced a net increase in dune area over the last 100–120 years. Only one (Whiteford Burrows) experienced significant net area loss (>5 ha). EGA predictions suggest that several systems are likely to experience significant net loss of dune habitat over the next century, whilst continued net gain is likely to occur for systems where sediment supply rates remain high. Little net change is predicted in some systems. Considering the 15 dune systems together, it is considered unlikely that net dune habitat loss will exceed net gain over the next 100 years provided that there are no major disruptions to sediment supply and natural coastal processes.     

Coastal setbacks for the Mediterranean: a challenge for ICZM

Coastal development along the Mediterranean coast needs to be tackled with an integrated approach, in order to safeguard people and properties from extreme events, maintain environmental flows and ecosystems functions, protect coastal landscapes and ensure public accessibility to the shore. The complexity of the Mediterranean countries legal and administrative framework and its morphological heterogeneity make the implementation of new the Protocol on ICZM provisions on coastal setbacks,—claiming for a 100 m wide buffer zone where construction is not allowed— a challenge for the success of the initiative. European countries and the European Commission are party to the protocol but the European legal framework lacks of specific provisions addressing the definition of coastal setbacks. Moreover, climate change, in terms of sea level rise and maritime climate, could play a major role in the future position of setback lines. While arbitrary setbacks should be put in place to halt short-term unwise coastal development, science can improve the identification of coastal setbacks by providing integrated methodologies to be implemented at the local level. The objective of this paper is to review concepts and practices in the use of coastal setbacks, in the context of the provisions of the ICZM protocol and taking into account new challenges posed by climate change. A stepwise route map is proposed as a base to identify coastal setbacks, applicable to the Mediterranean region and elsewhere, to be used as a base to improve arbitrary setback approaches.     

Coastal setbacks for the Mediterranean: a challenge for ICZM

Coastal development along the Mediterranean coast needs to be tackled with an integrated approach, in order to safeguard people and properties from extreme events, maintain environmental flows and ecosystems functions, protect coastal landscapes and ensure public accessibility to the shore. The complexity of the Mediterranean countries legal and administrative framework and its morphological heterogeneity make the implementation of new the Protocol on ICZM provisions on coastal setbacks,—claiming for a 100 m wide buffer zone where construction is not allowed— a challenge for the success of the initiative. European countries and the European Commission are party to the protocol but the European legal framework lacks of specific provisions addressing the definition of coastal setbacks. Moreover, climate change, in terms of sea level rise and maritime climate, could play a major role in the future position of setback lines. While arbitrary setbacks should be put in place to halt short-term unwise coastal development, science can improve the identification of coastal setbacks by providing integrated methodologies to be implemented at the local level. The objective of this paper is to review concepts and practices in the use of coastal setbacks, in the context of the provisions of the ICZM protocol and taking into account new challenges posed by climate change. A stepwise route map is proposed as a base to identify coastal setbacks, applicable to the Mediterranean region and elsewhere, to be used as a base to improve arbitrary setback approaches.     

Using environmental heterogeneity to plan for sea‐level rise

Environmental heterogeneity is increasingly being used to select conservation areas that will provide for future biodiversity under a variety of climate scenarios. This approach, termed conserving nature's stage (CNS), assumes environmental features respond to climate change more slowly than biological communities, but will CNS be effective if the stage were to change as rapidly as the climate? We tested the effectiveness of using CNS to select sites in salt marshes for conservation in coastal Georgia (U.S.A.), where environmental features will change rapidly as sea level rises. We calculated species diversity based on distributions of 7 bird species with a variety of niches in Georgia salt marshes. Environmental heterogeneity was assessed across six landscape gradients (e.g., elevation, salinity, and patch area). We used 2 approaches to select sites with high environmental heterogeneity: site complementarity (environmental diversity [ED]) and local environmental heterogeneity (environmental richness [ER]). Sites selected based on ER predicted present‐day species diversity better than randomly selected sites (up to an 8.1% improvement), were resilient to areal loss from SLR (1.0% average areal loss by 2050 compared with 0.9% loss of randomly selected sites), and provided habitat to a threatened species (0.63 average occupancy compared with 0.6 average occupancy of randomly selected sites). Sites selected based on ED predicted species diversity no better or worse than random and were not resilient to SLR (2.9% average areal loss by 2050). Despite the discrepancy between the 2 approaches, CNS is a viable strategy for conservation site selection in salt marshes because the ER approach was successful. It has potential for application in other coastal areas where SLR will affect environmental features, but its performance may depend on the magnitude of geological changes caused by SLR. Our results indicate that conservation planners that had heretofore excluded low‐lying coasts from CNS planning could include coastal ecosystems in regional conservation strategies.