A typology of time‐scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems

Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long‐term inertia and short‐term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management‐decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers’ actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time‐scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long‐term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short‐sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long‐term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed.     

PICABUE: a methodological framework for the development of indicators of sustainable development

SUMMARY

Significant interest in the concept of sustainable development exists amongst scientists, planners, policy makers and the public, and considerable effort and expenditure is made or envisaged at local, national and international levels to promote a more sustainable society. Until ‘green accounting’ and similar systems are made available and are implemented, the sustainability indicator will be the most effective tool available for monitoring progress towards a more sustainable society. Sustainability indicators are already available but are characterized by a poor or absent theoretical underpinning. This paper addresses this problem by proposing a methodological framework that can be applied to the construction of indicators of sustainable development. In order to be consistent with widely accepted definitions of sustainable development, considerations relating to the measurement of quality of life and ecological integrity are central to the methodology. The methodological framework has relevance to a variety of spatial scales and to geographically diverse areas (urban or rural, developed or developing countries) so that a suite of sustainability indicators can be produced that is tailored to the needs and resources of the indicator user, but which remains rooted firmly in the fundamental principles of sustainable development.     

Organic farmers in islands: Agricultural management and attitude towards the environment

SUMMARY

This study explores differences among organic farmers who live in islands and have isolated small-size operations. The relationships between farmers' characteristics and attitudes and farm management were interpreted by studying how they manage their land, their attitudes towards the environment and alternative farming systems, and their involvement in organic farming. The research was carried out using questionnaires addressed to organic farmers on the island of Thassos. Nonlinear canonical correlation was applied for data analysis. This information could contribute to adjustment of policy decisions for on-farm diversification. Agricultural policy makers should approach organic farmers in northern Thassos (productive irrigated olive orchards with gentle slopes) by enacting standards to reduce the cost of alternative plant protection methods and promoting their products in order to maintain and expand organic farming. They should also approach organic farmers in southern Thassos (less productive, dry cultivated olive orchards with steep slopes, overgrazed and often abandoned) by providing them with the necessary information and appropriate agricultural know-how to effectively manage their farms. Organic farmers with stable off-farm income are more aware of environmental values and consider that they risk less than others in order to gain the benefits of alternative farming systems. However, they should attend training programmes to achieve economic success to allow them to continue farming organically.     

Lessons from other disciplines for setting management thresholds for biodiversity conservation

Successful, state-dependent management, in which the goal of management is to maintain a system in a desired state, involves defining the boundaries between different states. Once these boundaries have been defined, managers require a strategic action plan with thresholds that initiate management interventions to either maintain or return the system to a desired state. This approach to management is widely used across diverse industries from agriculture, to medicine, to information technology, but it has only been adopted in conservation management relatively recently. Conservation practitioners have expressed a willingness to integrate this structured approach in their management systems, but they have also voiced concerns, including lack of a robust process for doing so. Given the widespread use of state-dependent management in other fields, we conducted an extensive review of the literature on threshold-based management to gain insight into how and where it is applied and identify potential lessons for conservation management. We identified 22 industries using 75 different methods for setting management thresholds in 843 studies. Methods spanned six broad approaches, including expert driven, statistical, predictive, optimization, experimental, and artificial intelligence methods. The objectives of each of these studies influenced the approaches used, including the methods for setting thresholds and selecting actions, and the number of thresholds set. The role of value judgments in setting thresholds was clear; studies across all industries frequently involved experts in setting thresholds, often accompanied by computational tools to simulate the consequences of proposed thresholds under different conditions. Of the 30 conservation studies examined, two-thirds used expert-driven methods, consistent with prior evidence that experience-based information often drives conservation management decisions. The methods we identified from other disciplines could help conservation decision makers set thresholds for management interventions in different contexts, linking monitoring to management actions and ensuring that conservation interventions are timely and effective.     

How Research‐Prioritization Exercises Affect Conservation Policy

Abstract: Conservation scientists are concerned about the apparent lack of impact their research is having on policy. By better aligning research with policy needs, conservation science might become more relevant to policy and increase its real‐world salience in the conservation of biological diversity. Consequently, some conservation scientists have embarked on a variety of exercises to identify research questions that, if answered, would provide the evidence base with which to develop and implement effective conservation policies. I synthesized two existing approaches to conceptualizing research impacts. One widely used approach classifies the impacts of research as conceptual, instrumental, and symbolic. Conceptual impacts occur when policy makers are sensitized to new issues and change their beliefs or thinking. Instrumental impacts arise when scientific research has a direct effect on policy decisions. The use of scientific research results to support established policy positions are symbolic impacts. The second approach classifies research issues according to whether scientific knowledge is developed fully and whether the policy issue has been articulated clearly. I believe exercises to identify important research questions have objectives of increasing the clarity of policy issues while strengthening science–policy interactions. This may facilitate the transmission of scientific knowledge to policy makers and, potentially, accelerate the development and implementation of effective conservation policy. Other, similar types of exercises might also be useful. For example, identification of visionary science questions independent of current policy needs, prioritization of best practices for transferring scientific knowledge to policy makers, and identification of questions about human values and their role in political processes could all help advance real‐world conservation science. It is crucial for conservation scientists to understand the wide variety of ways in which their research can affect policy and be improved systematically.     

Conservation and the Myth of Consensus

Abstract:  Environmental policy makers are embracing consensus-based approaches to environmental decision making in an attempt to enhance public participation in conservation and facilitate the potentially incompatible goals of environmental protection and economic growth. Although such approaches may produce positive results in immediate spatial and temporal contexts and under some forms of governance, their overuse has potentially dangerous implications for conservation within many democratic societies. We suggest that environmental decision making rooted in consensus theory leads to the dilution of socially powerful conservation metaphors and legitimizes current power relationships rooted in unsustainable social constructions of reality. We also suggest an argumentative model of environmental decision making rooted in ecology will facilitate progressive environmental policy by placing the environmental agenda on firmer epistemological ground and legitimizing challenges to current power hegemonies that dictate unsustainable practices.     

From Population Viability Analysis to Coviability of Farmland Biodiversity and Agriculture

Substantial declines in farmland biodiversity have been reported in Europe for several decades. Agricultural changes have been identified as a main driver of these declines. Although different agrienvironmental schemes have been implemented, their positive effect on biodiversity is relatively unknown. This raises the question as to how to reconcile farming production and biodiversity conservation to operationalize a sustainable and multifunctional agriculture. We devised a bioeconomic model and conducted an analysis based on coviability of farmland biodiversity and agriculture. The coviability approach extended population viability analyses by including bioeconomic risk. Our model coupled stochastic dynamics of both biodiversity and farming land‐uses selected at the microlevel with public policies at the macrolevel on the basis of financial incentives (taxes or subsidies) for land uses. The coviability approach made it possible for us to evaluate bioeconomic risks of these public incentives through the probability of satisfying a mix of biodiversity and economic constraints over time. We calibrated the model and applied it to a community of 34 common birds in metropolitan France at the small agricultural regions scale. We identified different public policies and scenarios with tolerable (0–0%) agroecological risk and modeled their outcomes up to 2050. Budgetary, economic, and ecological (based on Farmland Bird Index) constraints were essential to understanding the set of viable public policies. Our results suggest that some combinations of taxes on cereals and subsidies on grasslands could be relevant to develop a multifunctional agriculture. Moreover, the flexibility and multicriteria viewpoint underlying the coviability approach may help in the implementation of adaptive management. Del Análisis de Viabilidad Poblacional a la Co‐Viabilidad de la Agricultura y la Biodiversidad de las Tierras de Cultivo     

Indicators of sustainability as a tool in agricultural development: partitioning scientific and participatory processes

SUMMARY

Sustainable indicators have become popular tools by which policymakers can assess progress towards a more sustainable agriculture. Varying approaches to defining sustainability lead to disagreement about the value of indicators and yet some form of measurement is required so that society can judge the effects of policy. Environmental and social problems and their causes span national boundaries. An international framework for assessing agricultural activities, their effects and the pressures that drive those activities is therefore required. However, a guiding principle of the UN Agenda for Sustainable Development is that global problems require local action. Thus, indicators must provide information for policymakers as well as guidance for farmers and other practitioners. Many indicator programmes currently proposed do not provide this level of guidance as no evaluation as to what level of activity is sustainable has been agreed. A model is presented, to show how scientific and political or participatory approaches may be combined to meet the multiple objectives of involving people, maintaining scientific integrity and providing guidance for policymakers and practitioners alike.     

A holistic approach to the development of sustainable agriculture: application of the ecosystem health model

Serious resource depletion has made sustainable agriculture an important and pressing issue for scientists, policy makers, and stakeholders worldwide, particularly in developing countries. Researchers have focused on methods to assess agriculture correctly, and to introduce sound solutions for sustainability, but have reached no agreement. In this paper, we introduce the theoretical framework of the agro-ecosystem health model, a new holistic approach, and apply it at a regional scale using four aspects (4S): sound structure, stable function, safe service, and sustainable development. We examine how 12 indicators of an agro-ecosystem health assessment (AHA) were selected using three dimensions based on this theoretical framework. In an AHA, we used an amoeba approach to examine a high-yield agro-ecosystem in Huantai County, Shandong Province, China. The results indicate that this model of ecosystem health can reflect the complex ecological, economic, and human conditions of an agro-ecosystem and evaluate these conditions using perspectives pertinent to system structure, function, and responses (services).     

Minimizing the Cost of Keeping Options Open for Conservation in a Changing Climate

Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate‐change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea‐level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea‐level rise predictions into a decision‐making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea‐level rise and assuming a risk‐neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade‐offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. Minimizando el Costo de Mantener Opciones Abiertas para la Conservación en un Clima Cambiante     

Minimax regret discounting

The paper considers an environmental policy decision in which the appropriate approach for discounting future costs and benefits is unknown. Uncertainty about the discount rate is formulated as a decision under Knightian uncertainty. To solve this, we employ minimax regret, a decision criterion that is much less conservative then the related criterion maximin—in particular, it can be shown to implement a “proportional response” in that it equally balances concern about the mistake of doing too little with that of doing too much. Despite the criterion's balanced nature, the minimax regret solution mimics a policy that maximizes the present discounted value of future net benefits with an effective (certainty-equivalent) discount rate that declines over time to the lowest possible rate. In addition to reinforcing Weitzman's (1998) original limiting result, the approach generates concrete policy advice when decision makers are unable to specify a prior over possible discount rates. We apply it to the Stern–Nordhaus discounting debate and find that the effective discount rate converges to the Stern rate in just under 200 years.     

Minimax regret discounting

The paper considers an environmental policy decision in which the appropriate approach for discounting future costs and benefits is unknown. Uncertainty about the discount rate is formulated as a decision under Knightian uncertainty. To solve this, we employ minimax regret, a decision criterion that is much less conservative then the related criterion maximin—in particular, it can be shown to implement a “proportional response” in that it equally balances concern about the mistake of doing too little with that of doing too much. Despite the criterion's balanced nature, the minimax regret solution mimics a policy that maximizes the present discounted value of future net benefits with an effective (certainty-equivalent) discount rate that declines over time to the lowest possible rate. In addition to reinforcing Weitzman's (1998) original limiting result, the approach generates concrete policy advice when decision makers are unable to specify a prior over possible discount rates. We apply it to the Stern–Nordhaus discounting debate and find that the effective discount rate converges to the Stern rate in just under 200 years.     

Considering science needs to deliver actionable science

Conservation practitioners, natural resource managers, and environmental stewards often seek out scientific contributions to inform decision-making. This body of science only becomes actionable when motivated by decision makers considering alternative courses of action. Many in the science community equate addressing stakeholder science needs with delivering actionable science. However, not all efforts to address science needs deliver actionable science, suggesting that the synonymous use of these two constructs (delivering actionable science and addressing science needs) is not trivial. This can be the case when such needs are conveyed by people who neglect decision makers responsible for articulating a priority management concern and for specifying how the anticipated scientific information will aid the decision-making process. We argue that the actors responsible for articulating these science needs and the process used to identify them are decisive factors in the ability to deliver actionable science, stressing the importance of examining the provenance and the determination of science needs. Guided by a desire to enhance communication and cross-literacy between scientists and decision makers, we identified categories of actors who may inappropriately declare science needs (e.g., applied scientists with and without regulatory affiliation, external influencers, reluctant decision makers, agents in place of decision makers, and boundary organization representatives). We also emphasize the importance of, and general approach to, undertaking needs assessments or gap analyses as a means to identify priority science needs. We conclude that basic stipulations to legitimize actionable science, such as the declaration of decisions of interest that motivate science needs and using a robust process to identify priority information gaps, are not always satisfied and require verification. To alleviate these shortcomings, we formulated practical suggestions for consideration by applied scientists, decision makers, research funding entities, and boundary organizations to help foster conditions that lead to science output being truly actionable.     

Moving towards sustainable development: rhetoric,policy and reality of ecological agriculture in China

Past decades have witnessed the rise of sustainable agriculture movements throughout the world. In parallel with this international trend, ecological agriculture (with essential goals of food security, rural employment, poverty alleviation, natural resource management and environmental protection) has been advocated as a workable approach for the realization of sustainable agriculture in China. Two decades of ecological agricultural development have shown that it not only gained legitimacy at the senior policy level but also became a focus of scientific research in fields such as ecological economics, ecology, and agricultural and environmental sciences. However, this endeavour is hardly known in the West and little attention has been paid so far to examining the broader politico-economic and sociocultural contexts within which it has evolved. This paper attempts to provide a general review of the emerging background, development history, policy initiatives and recent tendencies of ecological agriculture. In addition, the extant problems and potential contributions of this alternative practice to China's sustainable agricultural development are discussed. The purpose of this study is to identify the gap between the policy rhetoric and practical implementation of Chinese ecological agriculture and therefore to facilitate its moving towards sustainable development.     

How to overcome the development deadlock in the Quilombo Vila Formosa,Brazil?

ABSTRACT

Although Brazilian Quilombolas possess specific land rights referring to their past as African slaves, the realization of such rights often fails due to the absence of land surveys, clarified institutional competencies and the general lack of power under which minorities suffer. Additional factors such as an expanding commercial agriculture contributing to land and water degradation and new actors introducing new logics intransparent to traditional populations often aggravate the situation. In order to identify options for traditional populations to overcome a development-deadlock typical for peripheral regions, the case of a Quilombo in Pará/Brazil will be analysed that has been struggling since decades with conflicting land tenure legislations and institutions. Starting from an inter- and transdisciplinary qualitative research process, scenario building by backcasting can represent an innovative approach to organize the central conflicts which have to be solved in order to overcome the development deadlock of the Quilombo Vila Formosa in Pará.     

Identifying future scenarios and their implications for transport policy

Scenario analysis is a technique that is increasingly being used as a way of identifying future policy options and issues in the long-term. This paper discusses the role of scenario analysis in policy development in relation to future transport policy. It discusses three key stages in scenario analysis: the identification of policy targets; the development of images of the future; and the construction of policy packages.     

A multidimensional decision-support approach to sustainable development planning

SUMMARY

The concept of sustainable development has become widely accepted as an instrumental objective of resource planning and environmental policy analysis. Nevertheless, applied planning approaches appropriate to this task have been slow in forthcoming. This paper suggests that one avenue for the application of sustainable development principles to resource management problems may be through multidimensional decision-support models. This approach recognizes that contemporary decision problems in the field of environmental planning are characterized by a diversity of structures and processes, incommensurable variables, and conflicting development objectives and constraints. On the basis of the articulated approach to sustainable development, a case study centred on Clayoquot Sound, British Columbia, Canada is presented. The case study serves to illustrate the efficacy of a multidimensional decision-support approach to sustainable development.     

An integrated sustainability decision-support framework Part I: Problem structuring

One of the main goals in decision-making for sustainable development is to identify and choose the most sustainable option from among different alternatives. This process usually involves a large number of stakeholders with multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Facilitating and resolving such difficult decision situations can be complex, so that a more formal and systematic approach to decision-making may be necessary. This two-part paper proposes an integrated multiple criteria decision-support framework specifically developed to provide systematic, step-by-step guidance to decision-makers. The framework, which is suitable for both corporate and public policy-making in the context of sustainable development, comprises three steps: problem structuring, problem analysis and problem resolution. In this paper, the focus is on problem structuring while Part II concentrates on problem analysis and resolution. Problem structuring includes identification of stakeholders, sustainability issues and indicators relevant for a particular decision problem. Sustainability indicators are used as decision criteria for identifying and choosing the most sustainable option. In the problem analysis step, decision makers articulate their preferences for different decision criteria. A suitable Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) technique, such as multi-objective optimisation, goal programming, value-based and outranking approaches, is then used to model the preferences. These techniques are discussed in Part II, which also gives guidance on the choice of the most appropriate MCDA method. Based on the outcome of preference modelling, which estimates the overall 'value' of each alternative being considered, decision-makers can then choose the 'best' or most sustainable option. Such an integrated decision-support framework is useful for providing structure to the debate, ensuring dialogue among decision-makers and showing trade-offs between conflicting objectives. In this way, it may be possible to create shared understanding about the issues, generate a sense of common purpose, and often, resolve 'difficult' decision problems.     

WTO框架下重构农村公共服务体系的探讨

我国已经加入WTO后,由于在谈判过程中我国在农业方面的让步比较大,如果不利用“绿箱政策”加强农村公共服务体系建设,农业和农村经济的竞争力必然大大下降．“绿箱”政策是一种问接式的保护政策,不在《农业协议》限制之列,而且“绿箱”政策中许多条款都涉及到保护本国农业的可持续发展能力,得到了各国的一致赞同．因此,我国有必要对农村公共服务体系的改革与发展历程进行一次系统清理,在此基础上认真总结正反两方面的经验和教训,重新构筑农村公共服务体系。     

Identification of optimal strategies for improving eco-resilience to floods in ecologically vulnerable regions of a wetland

In this study, a mixed integer fuzzy interval-stochastic programming model was developed for supporting the improvement of eco-resilience to floods in wetlands. This method allows uncertainties that are associated with eco-resilience improvement and can be presented as both probability distributions and interval values to be incorporated within a general modeling framework. Also, capacity-expansion plans of eco-resilience can be addressed through introducing binary variables. Moreover, penalties due to ecological damages which are associated with the violation of predefined targets can be effectively incorporated within the modeling and decision process. Thus, complexities associated with flood resistance and eco-resilience planning in wetlands can be systematically reflected, highly enhancing robustness of the modeling process. The developed method was then applied to a case of eco-resilience enhancement planning in three ecologically vulnerable regions of a wetland. Interval solutions under different river flow levels and different ecological damages were generated. They could be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired eco-resilience schemes to resist floods without causing too much damages. The application indicates that the model is helpful for supporting: (a) adjustment or justification of allocation patterns of ecological flood-resisting capacities, (b) formulation of local policies regarding eco-resilience enhancement options and policy interventions, and (c) analysis of interactions among multiple administrative targets within a wetland.