An integrated sustainability decision-support framework Part II: Problem analysis

One of the main goals in decision-making for sustainable development is to identify and choose the most sustainable option among different alternatives. This process usually involves a large number of stakeholders with multiple, often conflicting objectives. Facilitating and resolving such difficult decision situations can be complex, so that a more formal and systematic approach to decision-making may be necessary. This paper proposes an integrated multiple criteria decision-support framework specifically developed to provide a systematic, step-by-step guidance to decision-makers. The framework, which is suitable for both corporate and public policy-making in the context of sustainable development, comprises three steps: problem structuring, problem analysis and problem resolution. This paper concentrates on problem analysis and resolution, where decision-makers articulate their preferences for different decision criteria. A suitable Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) technique, such as multi-objective optimisation, goal programming, value-based and outranking approaches, is then used to model the preferences. These techniques are discussed here in some detail, to provide guidance on the choice of the most appropriate MCDA method. Based on the outcome of preference modelling, which estimates the overall 'value' of each alternative being considered, decision-makers can then choose the 'best' or most sustainable option. Such an integrated decision-support framework is useful for providing structure to the debate, ensuring dialogue among decision-makers and showing trade-offs between conflicting objectives. In this way, it may be possible to create shared understanding about the issues, generate a sense of common purpose and, often, resolve 'difficult' decision problems.     

Nachhaltige Entwicklung von Managementstrategien

In order to support evaluation and decision processes with respect to sustainability of management strategies, different mathematical methods can be applied. In this paper, the fundamentals of these so-called multi-criteria evaluation and decision-support instruments are presented. Moreover, advantages and disadvantages are worked out using an example data set of strategies of sustainable water management. It is shown that particularly transparency, objectivity and the degree of participation of stakeholders are the main characteristics: Whereas the Hasse diagram technique is directed to the scientifically given data matrix, and therefore yields an objective and transparent evaluation and data analysis, concordance analysis, utility function theory, PROMETHEE and AHP (analytical hierarchy process) have their preferences as participants or stakeholders in the decision process.     

A multidimensional decision-support approach to sustainable development planning

SUMMARY

The concept of sustainable development has become widely accepted as an instrumental objective of resource planning and environmental policy analysis. Nevertheless, applied planning approaches appropriate to this task have been slow in forthcoming. This paper suggests that one avenue for the application of sustainable development principles to resource management problems may be through multidimensional decision-support models. This approach recognizes that contemporary decision problems in the field of environmental planning are characterized by a diversity of structures and processes, incommensurable variables, and conflicting development objectives and constraints. On the basis of the articulated approach to sustainable development, a case study centred on Clayoquot Sound, British Columbia, Canada is presented. The case study serves to illustrate the efficacy of a multidimensional decision-support approach to sustainable development.     

Application of decision tools to ethical analysis in biodiversity conservation

Achieving ethically responsible decisions is crucial for the success of biodiversity conservation projects. We adapted the ethical matrix, decision tree, and Bateson's cube to assist in the ethical analysis of complex conservation scenarios by structuring these tools so that they can implement the different value dimensions (environmental, social, and animal welfare) involved in conservation ethics. We then applied them to a case study relative to the decision-making process regarding whether or not to continue collecting biomaterial on the oldest of the two remaining northern white rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum cottoni), a functionally extinct subspecies of the white rhinoceros. We used the ethical matrix to gather ethical pros and cons and as a starting point for a participatory approach to ethical decision-making. We used decision trees to compare the different options at stake on the basis of a set of ethical desiderata. We used Bateson's cube to establish a threshold of ethical acceptability and model the results of a simple survey. The application of these tools proved to be pivotal in structuring the decision-making process and in helping reach a shared, reasoned, and transparent decision on the best option from an ethical point of view among those available.     

An introduction to decision science for conservation

Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science, decision theory, decision analysis, structured decision-making, and decision-support tools. Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade-offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid-prototyping approach. At each step, decision-support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision-support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision-support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.     

Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire‐prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland–urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management.     

Using MCA tools for evaluating community-managed forests from a green economy perspective: lessons from Nepal

ABSTRACT

Nepal is in the process of formulating its forest policies at the provincial level . Various community-managed forests have been designed in the past by the Nepal government to decentralize the forest for its sustainable management practice. This study facilitates the process of identifying appropriate forest management options in two of the provinces, namely Provinces Three and Gandaki. Four forest management options – passive, active, scientific and multiple – were identified following the existing management practices. For the evaluation of the overall performance of the options, a framework with three criteria, 10 indicators and 28 verifiers were designed. The framework followed the green economy perspective considering the improvement of the forest conditions, economic and social well-being, and low carbon emission. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to prioritize the best management option and analyse trade-offs to guide future decision-making and reduce the risk of unwanted consequences. Our results show that the elicitation of preferences for the evaluation criteria varied by stakeholder groups. Their preference was largely guided by improving the forest resource condition and economic well-being. Foresters prefer scientific and active forest management, policymakers prefer multiple-use forest management and scientific management, whereas community forest user groups prefer active forest management. We argue that a scientific management approach may contribute better to economic aspects, although it may often compromise the other aspects. The multiple forest management option seems to be the best for green economy considering ecological, economic and social consequences.     

Use of Multicriteria Decision Analysis to Address Conservation Conflicts

Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision‐support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision‐making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross‐scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision‐support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. Uso de Análisis de Decisiones Multicriterio para Abordar Conflictos de Conservación     

Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects

Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk—their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance‐discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers’ risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management framework to maximize benefits and avoid potential extinctions due to inefficient allocation of limited resources. El Efecto de la Aversión de Riesgo sobre la Priorización de Proyectos de Conservación     

Development of a risk measure as a sustainable project selection criterion

SUMMARY

Sustainable decision-making requires consideration of technology, ecology, and the social and political infrastructure of society. While it may never be possible to identify with certainty what is sustainable and what is not, an attempt has been made in this paper to formulate a measure that permits one to compare the performances of project alternatives with respect to risk. An algorithm is presented for the evaluation of a risk criterion that can be used with other criteria in the process of selecting project alternatives. The intent of the risk criterion is to involve project stakeholders in the process of quantifying the risks associated with different project alternatives.     

Application of geographic information system technique and analytical hierarchy process model for land-use suitability analysis on coastal area

Land-use suitability is the ability of a given type of land to support a defined use. GIS is known as a powerful tool for handling spatial data in land-use analysis. Application of this tool alone cannot overcome the lack of consistency in opinions given by experts when trying to assign relative importance to each of the several criteria considered in a suitability analysis. The combination of GIS and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a powerful approach used to assess land suitability. To address this issue, the Analytical Hierarchy Process method is used in combination with the GIS tool. The aim of this study is to demonstrate how GIS tools and AHP model can be used for integrated coastal resource planning and management. Based on the information from final map/suitability map, we can define the best area. The findings indicate that the area 1 (2111 m) from class 3 is the most appropriate one because it has good facilities and wide open areas. This study indicates how the integrated tool is handled effectively in a land use suitability analysis for building hotels in the coastal areas of Terengganu in Malaysia. This research develops a framework for integrating GIS and AHP to incorporate the decision maker’s preferences on a range of factors in finding land areas suitable for coastal development.     

Human perspectives and conservation of grizzly bears in Banff National Park, Canada

Some conservation initiatives provoke intense conflict among stakeholders. The need for action, the nature of the conservation measures, and the effects of these measures on human interests may be disputed. Tools are needed to depolarize such situations, foster understanding of the perspectives of people involved, and find common ground. We used Q methodology to explore stakeholders' perspectives on conservation and management of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in Banff National Park and the Bow River watershed of Alberta, Canada. Twenty-nine stakeholders participated in the study, including local residents, scientists, agency employees, and representatives of nongovernmental conservation organizations and other interest groups. Participants rank ordered a set of statements to express their opinions on the problems of grizzly bear management (I-IV) and a second set of statements on possible solutions to the problems (A-C). Factor analysis revealed that participants held 4 distinct views of the problems: individuals associated with factor I emphasized deficiencies in goals and plans; those associated with factor II believed that problems had been exaggerated; those associated with factor III blamed institutional flaws such as disjointed management and inadequate resources; and individuals associated with factor IV blamed politicized decision making. There were 3 distinct views about the best solutions to the problems: individuals associated with factor A called for increased conservation efforts; those associated with factor B wanted reforms in decision-making processes; and individuals associated with factor C supported active landscape management. We connected people's definitions of the problem with their preferred solutions to form 5 overall problem narratives espoused by groups in the study: the problem is deficient goals and plans, the solution is to prioritize conservation efforts (planning-oriented conservation advocates); the problem is flawed institutions, the solution is to prioritize conservation efforts (institutionally-oriented conservation advocates); the problems have been exaggerated, but there is a need to improve decision-making processes (optimistic decision-process reformers); the problems have been exaggerated, but managers should more actively manage the landscape (optimistic landscape managers); and the problem is politicized decision making, solutions vary (democratizers). Although these 5 groups differed on many issues, they agreed that the population of grizzly bears is vulnerable to extirpation, human use of the area should be designed around ecological constraints, and more inclusive decision-making processes are needed. We used our results to inform a series of workshops in which stakeholders developed and agreed on new management strategies that were implemented by Parks Canada. Our research demonstrates the usefulness of Q method to illuminate people's perspectives and identify common ground in settings where conservation is contested.     

Beyond strong sustainability

Since the Brundtland Commission's delineation of the term sustainable development in 1987, virtually every country has incorporated the terms sustainability and sustainable development into their planning vocabulary and criteria for decision-making. However, many issues remain unresolved. Broad and sweeping references to sustainability and sustainable development do not necessarily translate into implementable policies to achieve these goals. In particular, unresolved issues include developing an understanding of how one sector of the economy can contribute to the sustainable development of the economy as a whole and the role of ecological resources in sustainable development. Our paper provides an initial conceptual examination of these questions by folding mining and ecological quality into the sustainability discussion. We use the Brazilian Amazon as an application of our sustainable development model.     

Choosing a Management Strategy: Two Structured Decision-Making Methods for Evaluating the Predictions of Stochastic Simulation Models

We describe two structured decision-making methods—one using a hierarchy of goals and a second using ranking on the sum of weighted criteria—that may be useful for many practical conservation problems, particularly when advisory groups evaluate the output of simulation models. We illustrate both methods by applying them to the problem of choosing a management strategy to address the "mobbing" problem in endangered Hawaiian monk seals. Both methods require estimates of the probabilities of various outcomes, such as a population size of more than 400 seals after 20 years under a specific management regime. We used a simulation model of a small monk seal population to generate these probabilities. Both methods provide an explicit, well-documented, and reproducible decision process that helps justify the decision. Furthermore, they are easy for those untrained in decision analysis to understand and use, they focus discussion on management objectives, they facilitate an examination of trade-offs in the light of multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives, they are suitable for use in workshops, and, at least in our example, they lead to management recommendations that are not highly sensitive to minor changes in probability estimates or other factors.     

Land-use planning via enhanced multi-objective evolutionary algorithms: optimizing the land value of major Greenfield initiatives

The successful implementation of major development initiatives relies on the sound allocation of land uses against critical design criteria and constraints. The discovery of optimum development plans introduces severe complexities in formulating and solving the underlying multi-objective optimization problem. Moreover, in the presence of conflicting planning criteria decision-makers should be provided with a set of alterative-yet-optimum solutions that uniformly cover the spectrum of feasible maps. The introduction of sophisticated optimization algorithms addresses this challenge by pursuing a complete approximation of the Pareto front containing all prominent spatial allocations. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of a new evolutionary algorithm (UDT-MOEA) against the results of an established multi-objective genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) when applied on a major greenfield initiative against the optimum location(s), size and shape of three new land uses. Each algorithm performs best in different areas of the feasible objective space, providing planning alternatives with distinct characteristics.     

Beachgoers’ perceptions of sandy beach conditions: demographic and attitudinal influences,and the implications for beach ecosystem management

Sandy beaches represent typical venues for recreation and tourism worldwide, as well as part of the lifestyle and identity of coastal communities. Their overexploitation, however, threatens their survival. Especially in urban areas, beach management requires balancing needs by different users and obligations to protect beach functions, including conservation. In light of this, research about the human dimension of beach ecosystems has been advanced as a way to assist planning and decision making in beach management. This study assessed beachgoers' perceptions of sandy beach conditions in South Africa, by means of a questionnaire survey. The effects of demographic profile, travelling habits, motivations to visit, and recreational preferences on beachgoers' perceptions of beach conditions were tested. Beachgoers shared a general concern for the wellbeing of sandy beaches, with particular reference to the state of biodiversity and conservation. They also gave great importance to the values underlying beach ecosystems. Three motivations to visit groups and four recreational preferences types were identified. Demography, travelling habits, motivations to visit, and recreational preferences all influenced perceptions of beach conditions. The results from this study were used to draw management recommendations, with particular attention towards the promotion of conservation while also maintaining the recreational quality of urban sandy beaches. The results also highlighted the relevance of considering users' views as a tool in decision-making processes in Integrated Coastal Zone Management.     

Practical sustainability criteria for decision-making

SUMMARY

The new paradigm of sustainability necessitates revisions to traditional decision-making processes. This paper, which is the first in a series of four, outlines the changes required for decision-making to reflect sustainability concerns. Three sustainability criteria, that are the focus of the three subsequent papers, are introduced and the rationale for each is explained. A framework for incorporating the three sustainability criteria into the decision-making process is briefly outlined. The paper ends with the introduction to a case study, the North Central Project (NCP) for electricity supply alternatives. The NCP is used in the three following papers to demonstrate the individual components of the new approach to sustainable decision-making.     

Book reviews and notices

The aim of sustainable development is to balance social, economic, and environmental needs. In order to justify the decisions they make, stakeholders must quantify the different impacts found in the operations and developments of companies and/or projects throughout their life cycle. However, as some areas are subjective in nature, the quantification process of the different impacts and the assessment of sustainable development performance become arduous tasks of development, validation, and application of scientific and empirical methods with the intrinsic objective of finding an agreement among the involved parties (i.e., stakeholders). Several environmental and sustainability assessment tools, instruments, processes, and methodologies have been developed; rating systems stand out and have gained attention and credibility, as demonstrated by the vast number of certified projects around the world and the widely-known usefulness and advantages of their application. The Wa-Pa-Su project sustainability rating system presents an integrated approach to sustainability assessment by integrating three distinctive areas of knowledge: (1) sustainable development theory and fundamentals supports the ultimate goal of the rating system, which is to contribute to sustainability, with the aim of finding a path to balance social, economic, and environmental needs; (2) continual performance improvement becomes essential due to the duration of the projects, as it is critical to allow organizations or projects to improve performance over time; and (3) multi-criteria decision analysis assists with the assessment process through stakeholder engagement and participation, and the design and implementation of a criteria weighting system.     

Practical application of sustainable development in decision-making processes in the Great Lakes Basin

SUMMARY

Sustainable development has become the conceptual framework within which societal, economic and environmental issues are addressed at every level around the world. In 1993, a United States-Canada assembly of more than 250 Great Lakes leaders was convened to evaluate the efficacy of creative processes under way in the Great Lakes Basin relative to sustainable development and to identify key success factors and process characteristics which are consistent with principles of sustainable development. A combination of eight criteria for effective project management (i.e. stakeholder involvement; leadership; information and interpretation; planning; human resource development; results and indicators; review and feedback; stakeholder satisfaction) and six principles of sustainable development (i.e. long-range planning and intergenerational responsibility; carrying capacity; anticipation and prevention; full cost accounting; integration of economic, social and environmental factors; efficiency, innovation and continuous improvement) were developed to evaluate and help improve decision-making processes. Such criteria and principles may be useful in improving decision-making processes in other parts of the world.     

Using a Systematic Approach to Select Flagship Species for Bird Conservation

Conservation marketing campaigns that focus on flagship species play a vital role in biological diversity conservation because they raise funds and change people's behavior. However, most flagship species are selected without considering the target audience of the campaign, which can hamper the campaign's effectiveness. To address this problem, we used a systematic and stakeholder‐driven approach to select flagship species for a conservation campaign in the Serra do Urubu in northeastern Brazil. We based our techniques on environmental economic and marketing methods. We used choice experiments to examine the species attributes that drive preference and latent‐class models to segment respondents into groups by preferences and socioeconomic characteristics. We used respondent preferences and information on bird species inhabiting the Serra do Urubu to calculate a flagship species suitability score. We also asked respondents to indicate their favorite species from a set list to enable comparison between methods. The species’ traits that drove audience preference were geographic distribution, population size, visibility, attractiveness, and survival in captivity. However, the importance of these factors differed among groups and groups differed in their views on whether species with small populations and the ability to survive in captivity should be prioritized. The popularity rankings of species differed between approaches, a result that was probably related to the different ways in which the 2 methods measured preference. Our new approach is a transparent and evidence‐based method that can be used to refine the way stakeholders are engaged in the design of conservation marketing campaigns.