An integrated sustainability decision-support framework Part I: Problem structuring

One of the main goals in decision-making for sustainable development is to identify and choose the most sustainable option from among different alternatives. This process usually involves a large number of stakeholders with multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Facilitating and resolving such difficult decision situations can be complex, so that a more formal and systematic approach to decision-making may be necessary. This two-part paper proposes an integrated multiple criteria decision-support framework specifically developed to provide systematic, step-by-step guidance to decision-makers. The framework, which is suitable for both corporate and public policy-making in the context of sustainable development, comprises three steps: problem structuring, problem analysis and problem resolution. In this paper, the focus is on problem structuring while Part II concentrates on problem analysis and resolution. Problem structuring includes identification of stakeholders, sustainability issues and indicators relevant for a particular decision problem. Sustainability indicators are used as decision criteria for identifying and choosing the most sustainable option. In the problem analysis step, decision makers articulate their preferences for different decision criteria. A suitable Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) technique, such as multi-objective optimisation, goal programming, value-based and outranking approaches, is then used to model the preferences. These techniques are discussed in Part II, which also gives guidance on the choice of the most appropriate MCDA method. Based on the outcome of preference modelling, which estimates the overall 'value' of each alternative being considered, decision-makers can then choose the 'best' or most sustainable option. Such an integrated decision-support framework is useful for providing structure to the debate, ensuring dialogue among decision-makers and showing trade-offs between conflicting objectives. In this way, it may be possible to create shared understanding about the issues, generate a sense of common purpose, and often, resolve 'difficult' decision problems.     

A multidimensional decision-support approach to sustainable development planning

SUMMARY

The concept of sustainable development has become widely accepted as an instrumental objective of resource planning and environmental policy analysis. Nevertheless, applied planning approaches appropriate to this task have been slow in forthcoming. This paper suggests that one avenue for the application of sustainable development principles to resource management problems may be through multidimensional decision-support models. This approach recognizes that contemporary decision problems in the field of environmental planning are characterized by a diversity of structures and processes, incommensurable variables, and conflicting development objectives and constraints. On the basis of the articulated approach to sustainable development, a case study centred on Clayoquot Sound, British Columbia, Canada is presented. The case study serves to illustrate the efficacy of a multidimensional decision-support approach to sustainable development.     

An introduction to decision science for conservation

Biodiversity conservation decisions are difficult, especially when they involve differing values, complex multidimensional objectives, scarce resources, urgency, and considerable uncertainty. Decision science embodies a theory about how to make difficult decisions and an extensive array of frameworks and tools that make that theory practical. We sought to improve conceptual clarity and practical application of decision science to help decision makers apply decision science to conservation problems. We addressed barriers to the uptake of decision science, including a lack of training and awareness of decision science; confusion over common terminology and which tools and frameworks to apply; and the mistaken impression that applying decision science must be time consuming, expensive, and complex. To aid in navigating the extensive and disparate decision science literature, we clarify meaning of common terms: decision science, decision theory, decision analysis, structured decision-making, and decision-support tools. Applying decision science does not have to be complex or time consuming; rather, it begins with knowing how to think through the components of a decision utilizing decision analysis (i.e., define the problem, elicit objectives, develop alternatives, estimate consequences, and perform trade-offs). This is best achieved by applying a rapid-prototyping approach. At each step, decision-support tools can provide additional insight and clarity, whereas decision-support frameworks (e.g., priority threat management and systematic conservation planning) can aid navigation of multiple steps of a decision analysis for particular contexts. We summarize key decision-support frameworks and tools and describe to which step of a decision analysis, and to which contexts, each is most useful to apply. Our introduction to decision science will aid in contextualizing current approaches and new developments, and help decision makers begin to apply decision science to conservation problems.     

Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire‐prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland–urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management.     

Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects

Conservation outcomes are uncertain. Agencies making decisions about what threat mitigation actions to take to save which species frequently face the dilemma of whether to invest in actions with high probability of success and guaranteed benefits or to choose projects with a greater risk of failure that might provide higher benefits if they succeed. The answer to this dilemma lies in the decision maker's aversion to risk—their unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes. Little guidance exists on how risk preferences affect conservation investment priorities. Using a prioritization approach based on cost effectiveness, we compared 2 approaches: a conservative probability threshold approach that excludes investment in projects with a risk of management failure greater than a fixed level, and a variance‐discounting heuristic used in economics that explicitly accounts for risk tolerance and the probabilities of management success and failure. We applied both approaches to prioritizing projects for 700 of New Zealand's threatened species across 8303 management actions. Both decision makers’ risk tolerance and our choice of approach to dealing with risk preferences drove the prioritization solution (i.e., the species selected for management). Use of a probability threshold minimized uncertainty, but more expensive projects were selected than with variance discounting, which maximized expected benefits by selecting the management of species with higher extinction risk and higher conservation value. Explicitly incorporating risk preferences within the decision making process reduced the number of species expected to be safe from extinction because lower risk tolerance resulted in more species being excluded from management, but the approach allowed decision makers to choose a level of acceptable risk that fit with their ability to accommodate failure. We argue for transparency in risk tolerance and recommend that decision makers accept risk in an adaptive management framework to maximize benefits and avoid potential extinctions due to inefficient allocation of limited resources. El Efecto de la Aversión de Riesgo sobre la Priorización de Proyectos de Conservación     

Use of Multicriteria Decision Analysis to Address Conservation Conflicts

Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision‐support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision‐making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross‐scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision‐support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. Uso de Análisis de Decisiones Multicriterio para Abordar Conflictos de Conservación     

Choosing a Management Strategy: Two Structured Decision-Making Methods for Evaluating the Predictions of Stochastic Simulation Models

We describe two structured decision-making methods—one using a hierarchy of goals and a second using ranking on the sum of weighted criteria—that may be useful for many practical conservation problems, particularly when advisory groups evaluate the output of simulation models. We illustrate both methods by applying them to the problem of choosing a management strategy to address the "mobbing" problem in endangered Hawaiian monk seals. Both methods require estimates of the probabilities of various outcomes, such as a population size of more than 400 seals after 20 years under a specific management regime. We used a simulation model of a small monk seal population to generate these probabilities. Both methods provide an explicit, well-documented, and reproducible decision process that helps justify the decision. Furthermore, they are easy for those untrained in decision analysis to understand and use, they focus discussion on management objectives, they facilitate an examination of trade-offs in the light of multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives, they are suitable for use in workshops, and, at least in our example, they lead to management recommendations that are not highly sensitive to minor changes in probability estimates or other factors.     

Nachhaltige Entwicklung von Managementstrategien

In order to support evaluation and decision processes with respect to sustainability of management strategies, different mathematical methods can be applied. In this paper, the fundamentals of these so-called multi-criteria evaluation and decision-support instruments are presented. Moreover, advantages and disadvantages are worked out using an example data set of strategies of sustainable water management. It is shown that particularly transparency, objectivity and the degree of participation of stakeholders are the main characteristics: Whereas the Hasse diagram technique is directed to the scientifically given data matrix, and therefore yields an objective and transparent evaluation and data analysis, concordance analysis, utility function theory, PROMETHEE and AHP (analytical hierarchy process) have their preferences as participants or stakeholders in the decision process.     

Application of geographic information system technique and analytical hierarchy process model for land-use suitability analysis on coastal area

Land-use suitability is the ability of a given type of land to support a defined use. GIS is known as a powerful tool for handling spatial data in land-use analysis. Application of this tool alone cannot overcome the lack of consistency in opinions given by experts when trying to assign relative importance to each of the several criteria considered in a suitability analysis. The combination of GIS and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a powerful approach used to assess land suitability. To address this issue, the Analytical Hierarchy Process method is used in combination with the GIS tool. The aim of this study is to demonstrate how GIS tools and AHP model can be used for integrated coastal resource planning and management. Based on the information from final map/suitability map, we can define the best area. The findings indicate that the area 1 (2111 m) from class 3 is the most appropriate one because it has good facilities and wide open areas. This study indicates how the integrated tool is handled effectively in a land use suitability analysis for building hotels in the coastal areas of Terengganu in Malaysia. This research develops a framework for integrating GIS and AHP to incorporate the decision maker’s preferences on a range of factors in finding land areas suitable for coastal development.     

Analysis of the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna fishery based on multiple management objectives

Vector optimization techniques were used to generate arbitrary segments of a policy frontier for a dynamic yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) fishery model assuming fixed technology and considering four policy objectives: minimizing dolphin mortality, minimizing incidental catch (all species except dolphins), maximizing sustainable yield, and minimizing biological risk for the yellowfin tuna stock. Results show that along the policy frontier: (1) reducing incidental dolphin mortality increases the incidental catch of other species in a nonlinear way; (2) yield increases (subject to a biomass precautionary level) can only be obtained at the expense of higher levels of dolphin mortality and incidental catch; (3) biological risk increases as the level of tunas caught increases, but this increase depends on the type of fishery (longline fishing and three different modes of purse-seining: log-sets, dolphin-sets or school-sets) that dominates the fishing effort; (4) there is an indirect relationship between the dolphin mortality levels and those of biological risk; (5) there is a direct relationship between the incidental catch levels and biological risk. Catch obtained with dolphin-sets dominates the Pareto-optimal solutions with highest dolphin mortality levels but is associated with lower biological risk, whereas catch obtained with log-sets dominates in Pareto-optimal solutions with higher incidental catch and higher biological risk. In general, trade-offs or shadow prices among objectives are not linear, indicating that marginal costs vary along the policy frontier. Results of the trade-off analysis may provide useful information for decision-makers and other policy actors. Complete information about the preferences of the decision-makers regarding the objectives is necessary to recommend a specific management policy.     

Using MCA tools for evaluating community-managed forests from a green economy perspective: lessons from Nepal

ABSTRACT

Nepal is in the process of formulating its forest policies at the provincial level . Various community-managed forests have been designed in the past by the Nepal government to decentralize the forest for its sustainable management practice. This study facilitates the process of identifying appropriate forest management options in two of the provinces, namely Provinces Three and Gandaki. Four forest management options – passive, active, scientific and multiple – were identified following the existing management practices. For the evaluation of the overall performance of the options, a framework with three criteria, 10 indicators and 28 verifiers were designed. The framework followed the green economy perspective considering the improvement of the forest conditions, economic and social well-being, and low carbon emission. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to prioritize the best management option and analyse trade-offs to guide future decision-making and reduce the risk of unwanted consequences. Our results show that the elicitation of preferences for the evaluation criteria varied by stakeholder groups. Their preference was largely guided by improving the forest resource condition and economic well-being. Foresters prefer scientific and active forest management, policymakers prefer multiple-use forest management and scientific management, whereas community forest user groups prefer active forest management. We argue that a scientific management approach may contribute better to economic aspects, although it may often compromise the other aspects. The multiple forest management option seems to be the best for green economy considering ecological, economic and social consequences.     

Sustainable development as freedom

There has been considerable debate about how best to define sustainable development. In this commentary, I argue that Amartya Sen's concept of 'development as freedom' is the appropriate theoretical framework for understanding sustainable development. Environmentalists should consider defining their goal as 'sustainable development as freedom,' the achievement of the greatest possible level of freedom without restricting the access of future generations to these same freedoms. The adoption of this framework has implications for the work of environmental NGOs, which are briefly discussed.     

Preferences and tradeoffs in nectar temperature and nectar concentration in the Asian hive bee Apis cerana

Honey bee foragers need to asses and make trade-offs between a number of potentially conflicting floral attributes. Here, we investigate multi-attribute decision making in the eastern honey bee, Apis cerana, when foraging on food sources that varied in warmth and sucrose concentration. We show that foragers prefer warm (30 °C) sucrose solution over cool (10 °C) sucrose solution and concentrated (30 % w/w) sucrose solution over dilute (15 % w/w) sucrose solution. When we offered the preferred sucrose concentration (30 % w/w) at the less-preferred temperature (10 °C), and the less-preferred sucrose concentration (15 % w/w) at the preferred temperature (30 °C), foragers prioritized warmth by choosing the warmer, but lower concentration solution. When the temperature difference was less extreme, bees preferred more concentrated cooler syrup (30 % ww at 15 °C over 15 % 30 °C). However, the addition of a decoy item to the choice set had a significant effect on the bees' preferences. Our results highlight the critical importance of considering context effects when measuring the foraging preferences of animals.     

The Control of Biological Invasions in the World's Oceans

Abstract: The introduction of alien, or nonindigenous, animals and plants has been identified by scientists and policy makers as a major threat to biodiversity in marine ecosystems. Although government agencies have struggled to control alien species on land and freshwater for decades with mixed success, the control of alien marine species is in its infancy. Prevention of introduction and establishment must be the first priority, but many populations of alien marine species are already well established worldwide. National and international policies leave loopholes for additional invasions to occur and provide only general guidance on how to control alien species once they are established. To address this issue, a multinational group of 25 scientists and attorneys convened in 1998 to examine options for controlling established populations of alien marine species. The discussions resulted in a framework for control of alien marine species to provide decision-making guidance to policymakers, managers, scientists, and other stakeholders. The framework consists of seven basic steps: (1) establish the nature and magnitude of the problem, (2) set objectives, (3) consider the full range of alternatives, (4) determine risk, (5) reduce risk, (6) assess benefits versus risks, and ( 7) monitor the situation. This framework can provide guidance for control efforts under the existing patchwork of national laws and can help provide a foundation for international cooperation.     

Application of decision tools to ethical analysis in biodiversity conservation

Achieving ethically responsible decisions is crucial for the success of biodiversity conservation projects. We adapted the ethical matrix, decision tree, and Bateson's cube to assist in the ethical analysis of complex conservation scenarios by structuring these tools so that they can implement the different value dimensions (environmental, social, and animal welfare) involved in conservation ethics. We then applied them to a case study relative to the decision-making process regarding whether or not to continue collecting biomaterial on the oldest of the two remaining northern white rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum cottoni), a functionally extinct subspecies of the white rhinoceros. We used the ethical matrix to gather ethical pros and cons and as a starting point for a participatory approach to ethical decision-making. We used decision trees to compare the different options at stake on the basis of a set of ethical desiderata. We used Bateson's cube to establish a threshold of ethical acceptability and model the results of a simple survey. The application of these tools proved to be pivotal in structuring the decision-making process and in helping reach a shared, reasoned, and transparent decision on the best option from an ethical point of view among those available.     

Indicators of sustainability as a tool in agricultural development: partitioning scientific and participatory processes

SUMMARY

Sustainable indicators have become popular tools by which policymakers can assess progress towards a more sustainable agriculture. Varying approaches to defining sustainability lead to disagreement about the value of indicators and yet some form of measurement is required so that society can judge the effects of policy. Environmental and social problems and their causes span national boundaries. An international framework for assessing agricultural activities, their effects and the pressures that drive those activities is therefore required. However, a guiding principle of the UN Agenda for Sustainable Development is that global problems require local action. Thus, indicators must provide information for policymakers as well as guidance for farmers and other practitioners. Many indicator programmes currently proposed do not provide this level of guidance as no evaluation as to what level of activity is sustainable has been agreed. A model is presented, to show how scientific and political or participatory approaches may be combined to meet the multiple objectives of involving people, maintaining scientific integrity and providing guidance for policymakers and practitioners alike.     

Insights from life history theory for an explicit treatment of trade‐offs in conservation biology

As economic and social contexts become more embedded within biodiversity conservation, it becomes obvious that resources are a limiting factor in conservation. This recognition is leading conservation scientists and practitioners to increasingly frame conservation decisions as trade‐offs between conflicting societal objectives. However, this framing is all too often done in an intuitive way, rather than by addressing trade‐offs explicitly. In contrast, the concept of trade‐off is a keystone in evolutionary biology, where it has been investigated extensively. I argue that insights from evolutionary theory can provide methodological and theoretical support to evaluating and quantifying trade‐offs in biodiversity conservation. I reviewed the diverse ways in which trade‐offs have emerged within the context of conservation and how advances from evolutionary theory can help avoid the main pitfalls of an implicit approach. When studying both evolutionary trade‐offs (e.g., reproduction vs. survival) and conservation trade‐offs (e.g., biodiversity conservation vs. agriculture), it is crucial to correctly identify the limiting resource, hold constant the amount of this resource when comparing different scenarios, and choose appropriate metrics to quantify the extent to which the objectives have been achieved. Insights from studies in evolutionary theory also reveal how an inadequate selection of conservation solutions may result from considering suboptimal rather than optional solutions when examining whether a trade‐off exits between 2 objectives. Furthermore, the shape of a trade‐off curve (i.e., whether the relationship between 2 objectives follows a concave, convex, or linear form) is known to affect crucially the definition of optimal solutions in evolutionary biology and very likely affects decisions in biodiversity conservation planning too. This interface between evolutionary biology and biodiversity conservation can therefore provide methodological guidance to support decision makers in the difficult task of choosing among conservation solutions. Percepciones de la Teoría de Historia de Vida para una Tratamiento Explícito de las Compensaciones en la Biología de la Conservación     

Equity trade‐offs in conservation decision making

Conservation decisions increasingly involve multiple environmental and social objectives, which result in complex decision contexts with high potential for trade‐offs. Improving social equity is one such objective that is often considered an enabler of successful outcomes and a virtuous ideal in itself. Despite its idealized importance in conservation policy, social equity is often highly simplified or ill‐defined and is applied uncritically. What constitutes equitable outcomes and processes is highly normative and subject to ethical deliberation. Different ethical frameworks may lead to different conceptions of equity through alternative perspectives of what is good or right. This can lead to different and potentially conflicting equity objectives in practice. We promote a more transparent, nuanced, and pluralistic conceptualization of equity in conservation decision making that particularly recognizes where multidimensional equity objectives may conflict. To help identify and mitigate ethical conflicts and avoid cases of good intentions producing bad outcomes, we encourage a more analytical incorporation of equity into conservation decision making particularly during mechanistic integration of equity objectives. We recommend that in conservation planning motivations and objectives for equity be made explicit within the problem context, methods used to incorporate equity objectives be applied with respect to stated objectives, and, should objectives dictate, evaluation of equity outcomes and adaptation of strategies be employed during policy implementation.